Here’s a look at the four factors numbers for Tennessee’s game tonight against Florida A&M. The conclusions are up front, and the details follow:
Summary and Score Prediction
The goals for the Vols:
- Make the most of their shooting advantages on both sides of the court.
- Make the most of their rebounding advantages on both sides of the court.
- Be aggressive and get to the foul line.
- Take care of business.
Prediction: Vols 79, A&M 50
Four Factors: Straight-Up
Effective FG%
- Tennessee 51.2 (No. 110)
- Florida A&M 39.3 (No. 347)
Prior opponents:
| UNC Asheville | 54.3 | 41 |
| VCU | 51 | 117 |
| Florida St. | 51 | 118 |
| Washington | 50.3 | 133 |
| Chattanooga | 48.5 | 188 |
| Murray St. | 48.1 | 207 |
| Alabama St. | 42.5 | 327 |
Conclusion: To Tennessee, Florida A&M is most like Alabama State when it comes to Effective FG%.
Turnover %
- Tennessee 20.1 (No. 201)
- Florida A&M 22 (No. 296)
Prior opponents:
| Chattanooga | 18.9 | 135 |
| Florida St. | 19.4 | 164 |
| VCU | 19.9 | 190 |
| Washington | 20.4 | 216 |
| Murray St. | 20.4 | 218 |
| UNC Asheville | 20.7 | 232 |
| Alabama St. | 24.3 | 333 |
Conclusion: Again, A&M basically looks like Alabama State from a Turnover % perspective.
Offensive Rebound %
- Tennessee 30.5 (No. 115)
- Florida A&M 27.5 (No. 196)
Prior opponents:
| Florida St. | 32.2 | 73 |
| UNC Asheville | 31.4 | 89 |
| Tennessee | 30.5 | 115 |
| VCU | 30 | 126 |
| Washington | 27.5 | 198 |
| Murray St. | 27.2 | 201 |
| Chattanooga | 25.5 | 234 |
| Alabama St. | 18.9 | 343 |
Conclusion: Huh. These guys are rebounding as well as Washington. (But that’s not exactly as good as you might think it should be.)
Free Throw Rate
- Tennessee 38.5 (No. 69)
- Florida A&M 36.8 (No. 88)
Prior opponents:
| Murray St. | 42 | 25 |
| Florida St. | 39.3 | 54 |
| Washington | 39 | 61 |
| VCU | 36.8 | 89 |
| UNC Asheville | 36.6 | 90 |
| Alabama St. | 34 | 125 |
| Chattanooga | 24.7 | 304 |
Conclusion: These guys are most like VCU and UNC Asheville when it comes to free throws.
Those are the straight-up comparisons of the teams’ respective averages in the four factors, but what about the fact that those numbers are impacted in any given game by the opponent?
Four Factors: Opponent impact
Effective FG%
When Tennessee has the ball
Tennessee’s EFG% is 51.2 (No. 110), and it will be going up against a defense that is 53.9 (No. 297).
When Florida A&M has the ball
A&M’s EFG% is 39.3 (No. 347), while Tennessee’s shooting defense is 41.4 (No. 12). Tennessee should make it pretty difficult for the Rattlers.
Conclusions
Expect Tennessee to both shoot well and make it really difficult for A&M to shoot well.
Turnover %
When Tennessee has the ball
Tennessee is struggling with a turnover % of 20.1 (No. 201). A&M’s defensive counterpart to this stat is 20.9 (No. 118).
When A&M has the ball
FAMU’s turnover % is 22 (No. 296), while’s Tennessee’s ability to force turnovers is 18.8 (No. 199).
Conclusions
Tennessee needs to get its turnovers straightened out, and the Rattlers may provide an opportunity to make up some ground there.
Offensive Rebounding %
When Tennessee has the ball
Tennessee’s OR% is 30.5 (No. 115), while A&M’s defense in that category is 37.3 (No. 348).
When FAMU has the ball
The Rattlers’ OR% is 27.5 (No. 196), while the Vols’ defense in that category is 23.4 (No. 41).
Conclusions
The Vols have a huge advantage in rebounding on both sides of the court.
Free Throw Rate
When Tennessee has the ball
Tennessee’s FT Rate is 38.5 (No. 69), while Florida A&M’s defense against that is 38.2 (No. 285).
When A&M has the ball
The Rattlers’ FT Rate is 36.8 (No. 88), while Tennessee’s defense against that is 25.9 (No. 72).
Conclusions
Tennessee is really good at getting to the foul line, and A&M is pretty generous in that regard. The other side is pretty much even, so although the Rattlers are used to getting to the foul line themselves, the Vols are pretty good at defending without fouling.
Summary and Score Prediction
The Vols appear to have big advantages in shooting, rebounding, and getting to the foul line, all of which should make this a fairly easy game for the good guys tonight.
The goals for the Vols:
- Make the most of their shooting advantages on both sides of the court.
- Make the most of their rebounding advantages on both sides of the court.
- Be aggressive and get to the foul line.
- Take care of business.
KenPom gives Tennessee a 99% chance of winning and puts the score at Tennessee 79, Florida A&M 50. The current line is Tennessee -30.
Go Vols.