Tennessee Bubble Math: To The End

A tip of the cap to the 2018 and 2019 Vols, for whom no such fun was required and we spent the first week of March trying to figure out what makes a one seed. I’d be happy to write those posts every year. But in this year, to get to this point – a chance to be in the bubble conversation with a home win over a ranked foe on the last day of the regular season – and to arrive here via Rupp Arena? I’m delighted to write this one as well.

First this: beat Auburn. Any scenario that involves the phrase, “Maybe if we make it all the way to Sunday in the SEC Tournament,” will lead, even in its rare fulfillment, to the simple desire to just win the (Fulmerized) SEC Tournament for once. The Vols still have just two Quad 1 wins heading to senior day, and as we’ve documented at length, their strength of schedule will end up being good but not great. The core of this argument has to be what you’ve done for me lately. Beat Auburn to complete a Florida-Kentucky-Auburn triple kill, now we’re talking. Lose to the Tigers, and we’ll have to do it the hard way in Nashville.

Lessons From Cuonzo, Lessons From Bruce

As has been the case for much of the post-Lamonte run, the Vols’ closest program counterparts in KenPom are Bruce Pearl’s last team (a 9 seed at 19-14) and a trio of NIT squads from Cuonzo’s first two years and Ron Slay’s SEC Player of the Year season in 2003. Where other Vol squads watched bubble hopes burst when things fell apart in late February, including Rick Barnes’ first two teams, this group is very much trying to live that Cuonzo life, at least in the last week of the regular season.

The 2012 Vols played host to a Vanderbilt team a week away from earning a five seed in the NCAA Tournament. Tennessee won 68-61. The 2013 Vols played host to a Missouri team a week away from earning a nine seed. Tennessee won 64-62. The 2014 Vols got Missouri again for the finale. They came to Knoxville on the bubble, and left with a 72-45 beat down.

Those first two teams lost their first game in the SEC Tournament, and the ride ended there (technically shortly thereafter in the NIT). The third snuck into Dayton and almost snuck into the Elite Eight. All you’ve gotta do is get in.

Beat Auburn, and the Vols will cross a couple of thresholds. No team has earned an at-large bid with a record worse than 19-15. Beat the Tigers, and the Vols would have 14 losses on Selection Sunday if they don’t win the NCAA Tournament. Eleven teams have earned an at-large bid with 14 or 15 losses since expansion to 68 in 2011.

The 19-15 number has a much healthier sample size than the NET ratings, which were brand new last season. Here’s a look at the cut line in NET last season:

TeamSeedNETRecord
Florida103119-15
Iowa104322-11
Seton Hall105720-13
Minnesota106121-13
Ohio State115519-14
BelmontDayton4726-5
TempleDayton5623-9
Arizona St.Dayton6322-10
St. John’sDayton7321-12

The Vols are currently 57th in NET, within the margins from last season. Again, small sample size, and no guarantees: last season NC State (33) and Clemson (35) both missed the dance floor despite strong NET ratings.

Tennessee has only two Quad 1 wins, and Auburn’s loss to Texas A&M tonight should deny them an opportunity for a third on Saturday. However, Florida’s win at Georgia – especially if followed up by a win over Kentucky in Gainesville – would give the Vols one back.

The bad news: the selection committee might just pass on the SEC as a whole. The Vols join Arkansas, Mississippi State, and South Carolina as bubble hopefuls coming to the final game. But if the league’s perception suffers in the room, the Vols might get caught in the wash.

Tennessee’s best argument is what’s it’s doing right now. Its second best argument is hard to quantify, but the Vols have been competitive at Kansas, vs Florida State, and obviously just beat Kentucky. If you get people in the room to talk about the Vols, you can make this point. But you have to get in the conversation first, which requires a win over Auburn.

And this is also a chance to learn and grow from the last time the Vols beat Kentucky in incredibly emotional fashion, then got blindsided by Auburn in the SEC Tournament title game. That one came at the expense of a one seed and the first SEC Tournament championship since 1979. This time the stakes are lower, but not smaller.

The Vols are great story with an unwritten ending. The last chapter was an incredible turn of events. Will that be the climax, or can the Vols keep building something more?

Beat Auburn.

Tennessee 81 Kentucky 73: Rick Barnes Does Not Believe in Ghosts

We’ll get to bubble math. Believe me, we will.

And, oh yes, we’re going to discuss Rick Barnes being 7-5 against Kentucky at Tennessee, and now the only Vol coach to win two games at Rupp Arena.

But for now, let’s just set all that aside and take this win over Kentucky for what it is on its own.

Kentucky led 42-31 at halftime. They pushed it to 51-34 with 16:53 to go. ESPN, sensing a blowout like the rest of us, went to backup story lines, including John Calipari’s love for being asked about the Evansville loss:

https://twitter.com/Kyle__Boone/status/1233913271331192833

While ESPN showed that clip, the Vols hit a 9-0 run in the background.

We hung out there for a while, the Vols unable to get closer than seven. Neither team made a shot for three minutes, Kentucky turned it over twice, and the Vols turned it over three times and missed the front end of a 1-and-1. Kentucky’s lead was still seven with eight minutes to play.

At that point, John Fulkerson had carried almost the entire load. The Vols were playing a glorified seven-man rotation and still trailed by seven at Rupp. This had all the makings of a great individual performance and another tip of the cap for this team refusing to quit, even if it wasn’t enough.

And then, in a flash, Tennessee had the lead.

Yves Pons rattled home a jumper to cut it to five. Josiah James got a steal and found Fulkerson for an and-one. Kentucky missed on the other end. Josiah James hit a three. Then Santiago Vescovi got a steal and euro-stepped his way to a bucket.

Down seven at 8:19. Up three at 6:13. At Rupp.

And not with the dudes who did something similar a little later in the contest at the SEC Tournament last year, who stared down the Cats in the final minutes and made them blink first. With 27 points from John Fulkerson. With an “oh yeah, that’s why he’s here,” revelation from Josiah James: 16 points, 7 rebounds, 5 assists, 2 steals, 1 turnover. With five assists and zero turnovers from Jordan Bowden. And 15 points on 6-of-9 shooting from Yves Pons.

It wasn’t done, of course: Kentucky quickly tied it up. But then Pons hit a three. And Pons was there again down the stretch. He scored out of a timeout on a beautiful feed from Vescovi to put the Vols up four with 2:43 to go. Then he put back a Fulkerson miss on the next possession to put the Vols up six. And Fulkerson was there again at the end, keeping a rebound alive for Josiah James to follow hit shot and put the Vols up six again with 1:08 to go.

Barnes rolled in here five years ago from nearly two decades of war with Kansas. It’s not that he’s unimpressed with Rupp or Kentucky or whatever. But he’s absolutely unfazed by them. He beat them in Knoxville with teams that finished 15-19 and 16-15. He went 4-2 against them the last two seasons, one win in Rupp and one in Nashville, both alive forever in our memories.

But to do this, with this team, at this point in the season, and down 17 with 16 minutes left when all signs pointed to a “good game” pat on the butt and let’s get ’em next year? At Rupp?

It’s one of the most surprising, most satisfying wins for any Tennessee basketball team I can remember.

The Vols move to 58th in KenPom, and their once-anemic triple-digit offense is now 84th. If there’s a way to quantify that the Vols lost to Florida State on a neutral floor by three, lost at Kansas by six, led at Auburn by, ironically, 17 points in the second half, and just won at Kentucky by eight? That’s the tournament argument. You want to keep having it, you beat Bruce Pearl on Saturday.

We’ll get to all that. But goodness gracious, you take a moment for this one tonight by itself. You lie about going to bed after the first four minutes of the second half. You listen to Barnes use language like, “This is one for the ages,” in the postgame; he knows. But he’s also been good enough at getting us here that we can believe in beating Kentucky. That’s been true in Knoxville for a long time now. Barnes and his players will make you believe it can happen anywhere.

Even Rupp. Even this team. Even tonight.

Tennessee at Kentucky: Ruthlessly Efficient

Can you guess how many Quad 1 wins Tennessee has right now?

It’s one: at Alabama on February 4.

In this #anyonecanwin season, Tennessee’s schedule is guilty of a particularly cruel betrayal. For more than a month we’ve been saying if the Vols just get to 18 or 19 regular season wins, the schedule would be there to back them up. Sure, the Vols would need to sweep Kentucky and Auburn this week to finish 18-13 (10-8). But at this point, even that might not be enough.

It would be enough to at least get you in the conversation. The Vols are inches away from a pair of other Quad 1 wins: Florida is 33rd in NET (Quad 1 = Top 30 win at home), VCU 56th (Quad 1 = Top 50 win at a neutral site). Washington broke a nine game losing streak but is still 13-16 (3-13). South Carolina has lost three of four. Arkansas just lost at Georgia. Tennessee’s strength of schedule is stagnant at 50th in KenPom.

It’ll go up this week, with what should be two more Quad 1 opportunities. But would it be enough?

For whatever it’s worth, I can get the Vols in using Bart Torvik’s predictive bracketology with the following scenario: beat Kentucky, beat Auburn, beat Texas A&M on Thursday, beat Kentucky on Friday, lose on Saturday. If the committee values what you’ve done lately, that would certainly be a compelling argument. But since that argument includes beating Kentucky twice in two weeks, one at Rupp? We’ve reached the point where any of the scenarios left on the table might be more difficult than simply winning the SEC Tournament.

It’s not impossible, and it’s Kentucky, so yeah, let’s win tonight. It would cement the Vols in the NIT, at the very least, barring total insanity during Championship Week. But the goal for Tennessee remains to keep playing its best basketball, something we’ve seen sustained glimpses of against South Carolina, Auburn, and Florida of late. These Vols will give themselves a chance against anyone they’ll face in Nashville. When they’re facing Kentucky in Lexington?

Mourning the Loss of a Favorite Joke

John Calipari’s 2008 Memphis team shot 61.4% at the free throw line, 329th nationally. You might recall them going 8-of-17 against the Vols in the 1 vs 2 game, or 12-of-19 in the title game.

His first Kentucky team went 66.9%, 16-of-29 in the Elite Eight loss to West Virginia. The 2014 team that ran to the finals shot 68.2%, 13-of-24 in the title game loss to UConn.

The 2015 juggernaut actually shot it really well (72.6%), you just didn’t notice because they didn’t need it. The 2018 group was back under 70% at 69.8%, including 10-of-16 in the loss in Knoxville and 23-of-37 in their tournament loss to Kansas State.

This year’s Kentucky team lost to Evansville and Utah, and gets less credit for winning a down SEC at 14-2 and counting. They’re just outside the Top 25 in KenPom. Unlike the most talented Kentucky teams of Calipari’s run, they need the help at the line.

And good grief, are they getting it.

Kentucky is third in the nation in free throw shooting at 79.5%. And they’re 10th in the nation at getting to the stripe. That’s a problem for everyone else.

The last time Kentucky shot less than 75% at the line was January 18. And even when teams defend them well without fouling, there’s just no mercy: 10-of-10 against Florida, 10-of-11 against Texas A&M in the last 10 days. Tennessee got a dose of this the first time: played well enough to be in it late, Jordan Bowden misses a wide open three that would’ve cut it to two with 2:30 left, end up losing by 13 because the Cats give you no mercy at the stripe, finishing 22-of-25. South Carolina is the only SEC team to get a break here, beating the Cats at the buzzer when Kentucky shot 25-of-36 (69.4%).

(You know who was great at this last year? Tennessee, an underrated 80.1% from the stripe in SEC play.)

At the moment, this is Calipari’s lowest-rated Kentucky squad in KenPom since the 2013 group that missed the tournament after Nerlens Noel went down. But you get absolutely nothing for free against these guys. For Rick Barnes to become the first Tennessee coach to win twice at Rupp Arena, the Vols will need every bit of that best basketball, and as many of those good looks to fall that didn’t go down in the first match-up as Rupp will afford.

It’s the late shift: 9:00 PM, ESPN.

Go Vols.

Tennessee 63 Florida 58: Still

Here’s the movie we’ve seen recently when the Vols weren’t in the chase for the national championship:

  • 2015: Donnie Tyndall’s Vols were 14-9 (6-5) on February 11, with an eye on at least the NIT. They lost five in a row, three by 17+, and finished the regular season 15-15 (7-11), missing any postseason opportunity.
  • 2016: Rick Barnes’ first squad was 12-12 (5-6) on February 9, having already faced the hardest portion of the SEC schedule. Kevin Punter had to shut it down, and they lost their last four regular season games to finish 13-18 (6-12).
  • 2017: The Vols were 14-10 (6-5) on February 8, then blew a big lead at home against Georgia. That was the first of five losses in their final seven games, finishing the regular season 16-15 (8-10), then falling to Georgia on the final possession on Thursday in the SEC Tournament.

Thrice, the Vols carried legitimate NCAA/NIT dreams to mid-February. Thrice, they missed both tournaments.

So this year, after excruciating losses on back-to-back Saturdays, when the Vols lost at Arkansas by 17 you felt like you knew how this would go. Tennessee was 15-13 (7-8), under .500 in league play for the first time since an 0-1 start. Florida, Kentucky, and Auburn remained. Any hopes of an at-large bid involved scenarios less likely than just winning the SEC Tournament in Nashville.

But Tennessee came out and dominated Florida for the first 28 minutes.

The Vols led by 15 at the break, holding the Gators to 17 points and no made shots in the last nine minutes of the first half. Florida boasts the league’s second-best offense in KenPom and 30th nationally.

When Florida trimmed the lead to 11 with 15 minutes to play and the ghosts of Auburn stirred, the Vols ripped off an 8-0 run via Fulkerson, Fulkerson, Pons, and Fulkerson on four consecutive possessions. Tennessee led 48-29 with 12 minutes to play.

A pair of Tennessee turnovers sparked a 6-0 Florida run, and this time Barnes did call timeout. Santiago Vescovi responded with a bucket. But this time Florida made back-to-back threes.

The lead was seven at the under eight, then four at the under four. Kerry Blackshear scored to cut it to two. Josiah James – a huge part of the solution in the first half – hit one of two free throws to make it three. Blackshear answered with a pair to cut it to one, 55-54, with 2:55 to go. The Vols couldn’t get a good look, and lost it out of bounds with two on the shot clock.

No problem: John Fulkerson drained his first career three.

It wasn’t done. Florida cut it to two, got a stop, and had another shot to tie or take the lead. But this time they missed with a minute to go and Josiah James grabbed a huge rebound. The Vols didn’t sit on it: Jordan Bowden exploded to the hole, and just missed.

No problem:

The Vols hit their free throws, and beat Florida 63-58. A Tennessee offense we were lamenting for its limitations, with or without all the turnovers? 52.1% from the floor, 6-of-14 (42.9%) from the arc, and only nine turnovers. Fulkerson took 15 shots, Bowden 11. It’s Tennessee’s best offensive basketball.

The post-Lamonte flaws are still there, the losses at South Carolina and Auburn still hurt. But the Vols, who could’ve folded til Nashville, instead played some of their best basketball of the season, especially on the offensive end. It’s a tough task left – at Kentucky, vs Auburn – but they might yet escape the triple digits in KenPom’s offensive efficiency ratings.

I still think the NCAA at-large arguments require a more complicated scenario (mainly winning at Rupp, though you like catching Kentucky after playing Auburn) than just winning the SEC Tournament. But today was a legitimately big win for Tennessee’s NIT hopes. The Vols go to 16-13 (8-8). You never know about the size of the at-large NIT field, because any regular season conference champion who loses in their conference tournament and doesn’t earn an at-large automatically goes to the NIT. So chaos in Championship Week can shrink it considerably. But last year Alabama got in at 18-15, Arkansas at 17-15, Butler at 16-16. You need to be .500 or better. The Vols shifted hard toward the better today.

The biggest hindrance to an SEC Tournament run: today Josiah James played 40 minutes, Pons 39, Bowden 38, Fulky 36, and Vescovi 34. The Vols got zero bench points. That shouldn’t be a problem next year, but right now this team is incredibly thin offensively, thin plus Davonte Gaines defensively.

There’s also some unsettled SEC Tournament seeding. The top six appear out of reach. But four teams – the Vols, Alabama, Arkansas, and Texas A&M – could be a bit jumbled at 7-10. If the Vols get to seven, they’ll avoid Kentucky on Friday.

This whole thing could’ve crumbled – we’ve seen that plenty in the last five years – and it could’ve crumbled in the final minutes; we’ve seen that plenty the last two weeks. But the Vols played hard, played some of their best basketball offensively, and this time did so in victory. It’s a credit to this team and this staff, with yet again so many reasons to look back or look forward, that they turned in such a good performance today.

Go Vols.

Tennessee-Florida four factors preview

Here’s a look at the four factors numbers for Tennessee’s game tomorrow against the Florida Gators. The conclusions are upfront, just after each team’s baseline, and the details follow.

Baseline

First up, here’s what each team is generally doing at this point in the season.

Summary and Score Prediction

On the all-important effective field goal percentage metrics, Florida’s defense appears to have a vast advantage when the Vols are shooting. On the flip side, the Vols’ defense has an advantage when the Gators are shooting, but it is more muted.

The same holds true for offensive rebounding percentage: The Vols appear to have a slight advantage on their own offensive side of the court, but Florida appears to have a more pronounced advantage when they have the ball.

It will come as no surprise that Florida has the advantage on both ends when it comes to turnovers.

If there’s any major advantage for the Vols, it comes at getting to the free-throw line, where they rank 63rd against Florida’s 228th defensive counterpart. Florida does have an advantage on the other end in this category, but it is not quite as pronounced.

So, the goals for the Vols in this game:

  1. Minimize the weaknesses: Shoot well by playing inside-out, reduce turnovers by making safe, crisp passes, box out and rebound on defense.
  2. Maximize the strengths: Clamp down on defense, but don’t foul unless it’s in the paint, get greedy for offensive rebounds, go through defenders and get to the rim to earn as many trips to the foul line as possible.

KenPom thinks this one is a toss-up, giving Florida a slight edge and putting the score at Florida 65, Tennessee 64.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: Most like Chattanooga and Mississippi State, and much better than the Vols.

Turnover %

Conclusion: Continued problems here for the Vols. Florida protects the ball pretty well.

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: Even.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: Advantage, Tennessee.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

Conclusions

Florida’s shooting defense isn’t spectacular, but Tennessee’s shooting woes are well-documented. And on the other side of the court, the Vols’ usual stout defense (the last Arkansas game notwithstanding) probably won’t have as much of an advantage as usual.

Turnover %

Conclusions

This gets more depressing every time I look at it. So, I’m typing this with my eyes closed.

Offensive Rebounding %

Conclusions

Looks like a Florida advantage here to me, both sides considered.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusions

Tennessee’s ability to get to the free-throw line has somewhat quietly become a strength of the team. Florida plays such aggressive defense that they tend to put opponents there a lot. On the other side of the ball, Tennessee also tends to put opponents there, but Florida is not as good as Tennessee at making it happen. Advantage, Tennessee.

Go Vols.

Recruiting News & Notes as February Dead Period Ends

Add DL Monkell Goodwine to the list of elite players that new TE Coach Joe Osovet has Tennessee in on.  He recently named the Vols in his top 6 along with Alabama, Oklahoma, LSU, Texas A&M, and local Maryland.  The Vols seem to have some ground to make up with Alabama in particular, so a spring visit will be a must.  But to say Osovet is off to a hot start is an understatement

At the same time, add WR JJ Jones to the longer list of elite players that Tennessee is very much in the mix for.  Jones added an offer from UGA this week to go with Tennessee, South Carolina, and UNC.  The Vols are going to be very selective with WRs in this class after landing a borderline elite WR haul in the 2020 class, and already have 4-star Jordan Moseley in the fold.  That said, with Donte Thornton, instate star Adonai Mitchell, and a handful of others firmly on the radar, the Vols have put themselves in a good spot at the position for 2021.

4-star DB Jantzen Dunn (#201 overall per 247 Sports) from Bowling Green, KY recently named Tennessee as his leader along with Oklahoma.  He plans on being back to Knoxville this spring after visiting for a Junior Day in January, and has also set up an OV to Norman in April for their spring game

Interesting nugget: Rusty Mansell from 247 Sports reported that Georgia is not currently heavily recruiting Atlanta-area 4-star OLB Zach Carter (181 overall by 247) despite having offered him.  After visiting Tennessee the first weekend in February he now has the Vols firmly in his top list of schools, with upcoming visits set to Alabama and LSU in March.  If UGA is not a factor that will really open things up for someone to fill that void (like with BJ Ojulari in 2020), so there is opportunity for the Vols to become a real factor.   New OLB Coach Shelton Felton will hope to use his GA high school ties to quickly build a relationship, and if he can expect Tennessee to get in the mix

With the Vols set to host the very strong (and likely growing) group of visitors for their big spring showcase Junior Day on March 7th, Tennessee is also going to have at least two bigtime players on campus this Sunday as the dead period ends. 4-star and 247 Sports’ #67 overall player Jeremiah Williams will be visiting this weekend.  The stud passrusher was just on campus for a late January Junior Day after visiting for last season’s UGA game, so he clearly has a ton of interest.  That said, like fellow Yellowhammer State passrusher Dylan Brooks, both Alabama and Auburn are hot on Williams’ trail as well making him a difficult pull.  Getting him to visit again so soon is obviously a good sign, however, so look for the Vols to really try and stamp themselves as he gets to spend a lot of solo time with Coach Pruitt and the staff. Also expected in this weekend is bigtime instate 4-star LB Junior Colson, who is back on campus after being in for a late January Junior Day and two games during this past season. Colson is a top target, one of the best players in the state, and frankly a must-get as the Vols look to continue lock down the best players in Tennessee

As of this writing, the following players are expected in Knoxville for the aforementioned March 7th Junior Day:

WR Jordan Moseley (Tennessee commitment)

DL Darrell Jackson (Tennessee commitment – possibly accompanied by teammate and FSU commitment DL Joshua Farmer)

DL Payton Page

CB De’Jahn Warren

CB Andre Turrentine

DL Jahvaree Ritzie

DL Taleeq Robbins

WR Tray Curry

WR Simeon Price

RB Jaylen Wright

ATH Kamen Marley

Obviously getting the two commitments back on campus is big for relationship building, especially for Jackson who committed to Tennessee when Tracy Rocker was the DL Coach.  Even bigger will be the presence of the 5-star Page and stud DBs Turrentine and Warren, who has absolutely blown up in recent weeks after receiving his first offer from Tennessee back in November.  As noted above, this list is likely to expand, and in particular will likely contain some instate prospects as well as more players from North Carolina. 

It’s likely that Alabama, Georgia, Clemson and others will also be aiming for the March 7th weekend as a big one as well and the Vols will be fighting those programs and others to get players to Knoxville.  As an example, Florida and Florida State will be hosting quite a few Tennessee targets on their respective campuses:

UF

RB Cody Brown

OLB Jeremiah Williams

OLB Kristian Zachary

DL Victoine Brown

OLB Smael Mondon

DL Justus Boone

DL Leonard Taylor

DL Tim Keenan

DB Kamar Wilcoxson

DL Anquin Barnes (who Volquest reported today is (also?) expected in Knoxville that weekend)

FSU

RB Jaylin White

DL Joshua Farmer (possibly accompanied by teammate and Tennessee commitment DL Darrell Jackson)

DL Zyun Reeves

CB Deshawn Rucker

WR Chauncey Magwood

With the Early Signing Period in December and the ability for players to take official visits as early as April, the month of March has become a very big deal.  Even moreso when it comes to recruiting QBs, many of whom are already locked up leaving a ton of bigtime programs fighting over a limited number of bigtime targets.  Therefore, visits during the month will be incredibly important to watch as bellweathers for the recruitments of the types of elite prospects for whom Tennessee is planning to fight.

Tennessee-Arkansas four factors preview, The Sequel: Save yourself with rebounds! Again!

Here’s a look at the four factors numbers for Tennessee’s game tonight against the Arkansas Razorbacks. The conclusions are upfront, just after each team’s baseline and the result of the last matchup between these two teams, and the details follow.

Baseline

First up, here’s what each team is generally doing at this point in the season.

Summary and Score Prediction

Previously on the Vols-Hogs, our two game previews were entitled Save Yourself with Rebounds and Hey, Look! We’re Bigger Than These Guys! Turns out, that did, in fact, matter, but it wasn’t the only thing that mattered in an 82-61 rout by the Vols. Also contributing to the blowout was a reliable Vols defense, a surprisingly hot-shooting Vols offense, and being able to get to the line almost as much as they did:

Only two weeks later, the numbers all pretty much look the same. Should we expect the same result? The Vols are probably not going to hold Mason Jones to 9 points on 1-of-10 shooting again, but if they are as inside-out focused in this one as they were the last one, you have to like their chances.

The goals for the Vols (only slightly revised from the last game):

  1. Rebound. When you shoot, you’re likely going to miss (or maybe not!), but the Hogs will let you try again if you just go get the ball.
  2. When you get a rebound, go up toward to rim through a defender and get to the foul line.
  3. Rebound. You can frustrate Arkansas into bad shots, and they don’t like offensive boards, so give them one bad shot only.

Vegas likes the Hogs at home by 5.5, and KenPom agrees, putting the score at Arkansas 67, Tennessee 62. Me, I’d like a repeat performance instead, please.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: Most like Wisconsin and Auburn, and better than the Vols.

Turnover %

Conclusion: We have this picture of our youngest daughter’s second birthday party where she is giving an Olympic stink-eye to some poor boy innocently eating her chocolate birthday cake. I imagine Arkansas feeling the same way, except they never actually get to the stink-eye part; they just take their cake into the closet, bar the door, and eat the whole thing themselves. Bummer, too, because I like chocolate cake and when the other team gives my team the ball for free.

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: Woo. As we now say every time we talk about this stat, the Vols can’t seem to beat any teams in the top half of that list, but they can’t seem to lose to any in the bottom half. Hello down there, Arkansas!

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: Most like Vanderbilt and Mississippi State, these guys are getting to the line. Tennessee’s making inroads in this category, though, so it shouldn’t be too lopsided.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

Conclusions

Same story different game, a struggling Vols offense goes up against a good defense, but an elite Vols defense should balance it out. Oh, and we shot nearly 50% from the field and over 37% from three when these two teams last met, while the Vols held the Hogs to 31% from the field.

Turnover %

Conclusions

The last time I looked at this for the Arkansas game, I LOL’d here. Imma do it again: LOL (through tears). Hey, we’ll get better, eventually. Plus, the last time out, Tennessee had only 11 turnovers to Arkansas’ 14, so what do these stats know?

Offensive Rebounding %

Conclusions

Apparently, wild pigs can’t jump or grab rebounds with those short, little stubby ham legs. This is very good news and could once again be a factor in the Vols winning this game.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusions

On the other hand, the Hogs will both put you on the line and get there themselves. Free throw attempts were 30 for the Vols to 36 for the Hogs last game, so make ’em count!

Go Vols.

Osovet Off to a Hot Start on the Trail

With the obvious caveat that even the early Signing Day for the 2021 class is ten months out, the early recruiting returns on new TE Coach Joe Osovet are incredibly encouraging.  While perhaps that should not be surprising given that his name was brought up by multiple recruits in the 2020 cycle despite being in an off-field role and therefore not able to recruit off campus, along with the fact that he’s a former JUCO head coach with extensive ties in the Northeast, his promising start on the trail is a great sign.  Because if Osovet is indeed a bigtime recruiter, the offseason staff changes made by Coach Jeremy Pruitt  – including upgrading from David Johnson to Jay Graham at RB Coach (not to shortchange Johnson, but it is what it is); and Jimmy Brumbaugh for Tracy Rocker (who Tennessee would have been better off had he simply did what he prefers and not recruit at all) will look that much better. 

To wit, Osovet is the lead recruiter for the following players, mostly from MD and PA, (247 Sports rankings in parentheses) that Tennessee is in deep with:

DE Demeioun Robinson (20): A premier player in this class, Robinson has been to Knoxville multiple times and Osovet has developed a deep relationship with both Demeioun and his family.  To wit: perhaps not coincidentally, Robinson’s two older brothers enrolled at Osovet’s former JUCO, ASA Brooklyn in the 2020 class and both came on his most recent visit along with their father

WR Donte Thornton (55): A former PSU commitment, Thornton came to Knoxville last summer for Tennessee’s “Rocky Top Cookout” recruiting event and then after a trip to Oregon backed off that Nittany Lions pledge.  He was back on campus at the beginning of this month for a Junior Day and clearly likes both Osovet as well as WR Coach Tee Martin.  With WR spots at a premium in this class and one already locked up by Jordan Moseley – a very, very good player himself – Thornton is likely right at the top of the Vols board

CB Ryan Barnes (469): That ranking is more likely to simply have the “4” removed than to be anywhere near where it currently is in the not too distant future.  The Vols offered Barnes first, back in November 2019, and he now has offers from the likes of Clemson, LSU, Georgia and Florida.  Barnes will be at Clemson on March 7 and then back in Knoxville the following weekend, giving the Vols a chance to really solidify themselves in what will almost certainly end up a bigtime battle

CB Dejahn Warren (JUCO): Based on offers alone Warren is likely the top JUCO in the country, and Tennessee gave him his first one in November.  Since then, Alabama, Penn State Oklahoma and others have joined the Vols but Osovet’s relationship has the Vols very much in the mix.  Warren plans on being in Knoxville for Tennessee’s first big March Junior Day the weekend of the 7th and that will be a big visit now that Warren has exploded onto the scene.  As an early enrollee who clearly is very talented, Warren is the kind of instant impact JUCO that the Vols will be looking for in this class

WR Christian Velleuix (418): At or near the top of Tennessee’s recently expanded QB board, Velleuix is another player that Osovet has been working for some time.  Where he ultimately sits on Tennessee’s board is TBD, but the same could be said for programs like PSU and Clemson (both of whom are waiting on another QB, and therefore, each other).  Osovet has positioned the Vols to where they have the option of pushing or not, a decision which ultimately will be made by Pruitt, Jim Chaney, and QB Coach Chris Weinke

LB Greg Penn (283): A Top 100 player overall by Rivals, Penn has OSU, LSU, Texas A&M and South Carolina among his favorites.  Citing his relationship with Osovet, he plans on visiting Knoxville in March as the Vols try to make a move.  How it plays out from there is TBD, but Penn is yet another “elite” player Osovet for whom has gotten Tennessee in the mix

DL Taleeq Robbins (548): Another player whose early ranking belies his offer list, Robbins will be in Knoxville for the March 7th Junior Day as the Vols try to join programs like Michigan and Texas A&M for the talented DL from Philly.  He’ll be joined by two very talented 2022 Philadelphia natives, including teammate and Top 30 prospect DE Enai White as well as OLB Ken Talley who holds offer from PSU, UF and others

DT Terrion Sugick (600): The former UVA commitment also has offers from Florida and now Tennessee after an early February visit to Knoxville and is another Maryland product who Osovet has the Vols firmly in play for

DT Tyas Martin (684): Martin, an Arkansas native, was on campus in early February and has Tennessee at the very top of his list.  The big man showed out at the The All-American Bowl National Junior Combine in January and now has Oklahoma looking to join the Vols, UVA and Virginia Tech as early contenders.  He’s yet another Osovet recruit

As Tennessee looks to take its program to another level in terms of talent, it is a must that it continue to recruit against and beat the elite programs in the country for elite talent.  In order to do that, Pruitt has to have a staff with as many top-end recruiters as possible.  With former National Recruiters of the Year Tee Martin and Brian Niedermeyer already on staff already, Osovet emerging as a bigtime recruiter would really position Tennessee’s staff as one of the best in the country and give the Vols a real shot at not just its third straight Top 10 national class but potentially a Top 5 finish.  His ability to finish will be tested for sure, but for now Vol fans can feel good that he’s off to a very strong start.

Tennessee Turnover Rate

We use Ken Pomeroy’s numbers a lot around here, and Joel writes a Four Factors preview for each contest. It’s the backbone of Pomeroy’s ratings: how well do you shoot it, how often do you turn it over, how many second chances do you give yourself via offensive rebounds, and how often do you get to the free throw line.

By far, Tennessee’s strength this season has been the way it defends: the Vols are 16th nationally in effective field goal percentage allowed. Their defense is vulnerable on the offensive glass (256th nationally) and in fouling too often (228th nationally), but the Vols do a decent job of forcing turnovers (113th).

And we also know the Vols struggle on the offensive end, more so than most teams we’ve seen around here. Tennessee is 121st overall in offensive efficiency a year after finishing third in the nation. Cuonzo Martin’s first team in 2012 is the only Vol squad to finish in triple digits in offensive efficiency this century (106th); you have to go all the way back to Kevin O’Neill’s tenure to find an offensive efficiency that was (way) worse at 278th nationally (to the surprise of no one who was watching the Vols in 1997).

But the four factor components of Tennessee’s offense aren’t all bad. The Vols are 80th nationally in getting to the line, 91st in offensive rebounds. John Fulkerson does particularly good work here, 57th nationally in free throw rate.

We know this isn’t a great shooting team. It shoots just 30.6% from the arc, with surprisingly poor performances from a number of guys we thought would do more:

  • Lamonte Turner was 11-of-47 (23.4%)
  • Jordan Bowden is still just 27.7% on the year after his burst at Auburn
  • Yves Pons has cooled to 32.5%
  • Jalen Johnson is at 31.6% off the bench
  • Davonte Gaines is 3-of-18 (16.7%)

I’ll be curious to see how they develop this aspect of Josiah James’ game: he’s been the most consistent shooter this season at 36.9%, but takes just 2.9 threes per game. And Santiago Vescovi is at 37.2%, taking 5.7 per game.

We also know the Vols exclusively get good offense through good ball movement. The Vols still rank second in the nation in assist percentage, getting a dish on 64.7% of their made shots. This has been a focal point of Barnes’ offense, but the last two seasons (7th nationally in 2018, 24th in 2019) the Vols also had guys who could get their own shot when they had to have it.

This Tennessee offense, with so many moving parts, would be limited no matter what. But what’s making them historically bad is what’s cost them the last two Saturdays, the biggest culprit in keeping them off the bubble: turnovers.

Tennessee turns it over on 20.8% of its possessions, 290th nationally. In league play that number swells to 21.5%, last in the SEC. And the Vols surrender a steal on 11.6% of their possessions (12.5% in league play), which ranks 348th out of 353 Division 1 teams.

That steal percentage is the worst for any Tennessee team since 2002 (11.9%), Buzz Peterson’s first season, when the Vols lost Ron Slay to an ACL tear in mid-January and you had Thaydeus Holden and Jenis Grindstaff trying to run the show; C.J. Watson played as a true freshman the next year. Peterson’s first three teams all had a slightly higher turnover percentage as well, but that’s as far back as you have to go to find a worse turnover percentage than this year.

This is also all so frustrating because we just witnessed the best year of the KenPom era for the Vols in not turning it over: last year Tennessee gave it away on just 15.8% of its possessions, 25th nationally. You can make a really good argument that this team misses Jordan Bone more than anyone.

Some good news: C.J. Watson grew into both an NBA player and the point guard of a team that turned it over very little in Bruce Pearl’s first season (17.6%, 13th nationally). You expect freshmen to have these kinds of issues, especially a player like Santiago Vescovi who just got here in January. And Vescovi is the leading culprit when it comes to turnovers, with the Vols giving the ball away on 29.6% of the possessions he’s involved in. The other leading offenders are also freshmen. Olivier Nkamhoua turns it over 28.6% of the time, and Josiah James is at 28.9% after six costly turnovers on Saturday.

So, yeah. They’re freshmen. They’ll get better. The Vols have been close to good teams and the bubble all year, but when turnovers are your greatest weakness, it’s always going to hurt a little more because it feels like you’re doing it to yourself.

Here’s the full data for turnovers and steals in the KenPom era:

YearTO%RankSteal %Rank
202020.8%29011.6%348
201915.8%258.8%173
201817.9%1418.2%113
201717.4%918.3%135
201615.8%328.5%162
201519.7%2178.4%82
201416.8%718.4%103
201320.1%1839.9%177
201220.5%20410.9%290
201119.8%1489.9%227
201019.2%1068.6%71
200918.3%548.4%42
200818.1%277.9%21
200718.8%528.5%62
200617.6%138.5%39
200520.6%12010.6%176
200421.7%18111.4%242
200322.8%23510.2%171
200223.0%25011.9%279

Vols Giving Themselves Options at QB for 2021

For quite a while now, Tennessee’s most realistic option for adding a blue chip Quarterback in the 2021 class has been Christian Veilleux.  Veilleux has been to campus three time, including throwing for OC Jim Chaney last summer, the 2019 season home game against Mississippi State, and again for a Junior Day in mid-January.  And while the Vols are very much still at the top of the list for Veilleux, along with Penn State and Clemson (pending an offer from the Tigers, which is likely dependent on them missing on Caleb Williams), Tennessee has recently made a move with two other highly recruited QBs that potentially could give them some options at the game’s most important position. 

Miller Moss, 247 Sports’ #62 overall player in the 2021 class and #8 overall QB, received an offer from the Vols just last week and due to a major tie to the program seems to be giving Tennessee a hard look.  Moss is coached at Bishop Almeny HS in Mission Hills, CA by none other than the Ice Man himself, Casey Clausen, and the entire Clausen family (Rick is the OC) appears to be a real positive in Tennessee’s corner in this recruitment.  Moss is being recruited by many of the top programs in the country, including West Coast power Oregon, local USC and UCLA, and even LSU and Auburn to go with Tennessee in the SEC.  His 7-on-7 team is traveling to Tampa as well as Gatlinburg at the end of February and he is currently planning on trying to visit the campuses of Tennessee, LSU, and Auburn while he’s out this way.  Should he indeed make it to Knoxville the Vols will likely emerge as real players, as the tie to the Clausens and the 2020 WR class and rebuilt offensive line are sure to be big draws.  Of course if he doesn’t then one can almost surely scratch him from the list, so that visit will be the pivot point for Moss and the Vols and therefore will be watched very closely.

Texan Kaiden Salter is the other QB who the Vols have made a recent move with as the most recent dead period comes to and end.  Salter is more of a dual threat than Veilleux, Moss, or anyone Tennessee currently has on campus.  From the Dallas area of Cedar Hill, Salter is ranked just behind Moss at #89 nationally. Although he is regarded as a pass-first QB, Salter’s raw athleticism is incredibly impressive, and he complements his exploits on the gridiron by being a high level track and field athlete.  On film it’s truly functional athleticism, too, as he is able to not just run for yardage and scores but also to elude defensive lineman and make plays out of the pocket and of course just run away from defenders.  Tennessee appears to be in Salter’s top group along with Ole Miss (where he’ll visit with his 7-on-7 team the first weekend of March), Auburn, UCLA and Baylor.  The commonality among that group is the spread offenses they all run that also depend on a dual threat QB.  How that fits with what Chaney does is interesting, and perhaps along with the signing of Jimmy Holiday in the 2020 class the recruitment of Salter could signal a real commitment to new concepts in the Tennessee offense.

Although Tennessee will go through its 2020 spring practice with five scholarship QBs, four of whom are scheduled to have eligibility at Tennessee into the 2021 season and beyond, few think all five of them will still be on the roster when the 2020 season begins let alone into future seasons.  At the same time, when looking to the future only 2020 5-star signee Harrison Bailey has the kind of pedigree that suggests he can lead Tennessee to SEC East, SEC, and National title contention.  Therefore, it’s imperative that the Vols go back to back on top of Bailey with another bonafide bluechip QB in this upcoming class.  By moving up the list of contenders for two new Top 100 players in Moss and Salter, to go with being very much in the mix for Veilleux, Tennessee has now greatly increased its odds of doing just that.