Can you guess how many Quad 1 wins Tennessee has right now?
It’s one: at Alabama on February 4.
In this #anyonecanwin season, Tennessee’s schedule is guilty of a particularly cruel betrayal. For more than a month we’ve been saying if the Vols just get to 18 or 19 regular season wins, the schedule would be there to back them up. Sure, the Vols would need to sweep Kentucky and Auburn this week to finish 18-13 (10-8). But at this point, even that might not be enough.
It would be enough to at least get you in the conversation. The Vols are inches away from a pair of other Quad 1 wins: Florida is 33rd in NET (Quad 1 = Top 30 win at home), VCU 56th (Quad 1 = Top 50 win at a neutral site). Washington broke a nine game losing streak but is still 13-16 (3-13). South Carolina has lost three of four. Arkansas just lost at Georgia. Tennessee’s strength of schedule is stagnant at 50th in KenPom.
It’ll go up this week, with what should be two more Quad 1 opportunities. But would it be enough?
For whatever it’s worth, I can get the Vols in using Bart Torvik’s predictive bracketology with the following scenario: beat Kentucky, beat Auburn, beat Texas A&M on Thursday, beat Kentucky on Friday, lose on Saturday. If the committee values what you’ve done lately, that would certainly be a compelling argument. But since that argument includes beating Kentucky twice in two weeks, one at Rupp? We’ve reached the point where any of the scenarios left on the table might be more difficult than simply winning the SEC Tournament.
It’s not impossible, and it’s Kentucky, so yeah, let’s win tonight. It would cement the Vols in the NIT, at the very least, barring total insanity during Championship Week. But the goal for Tennessee remains to keep playing its best basketball, something we’ve seen sustained glimpses of against South Carolina, Auburn, and Florida of late. These Vols will give themselves a chance against anyone they’ll face in Nashville. When they’re facing Kentucky in Lexington?
Mourning the Loss of a Favorite Joke
John Calipari’s 2008 Memphis team shot 61.4% at the free throw line, 329th nationally. You might recall them going 8-of-17 against the Vols in the 1 vs 2 game, or 12-of-19 in the title game.
His first Kentucky team went 66.9%, 16-of-29 in the Elite Eight loss to West Virginia. The 2014 team that ran to the finals shot 68.2%, 13-of-24 in the title game loss to UConn.
The 2015 juggernaut actually shot it really well (72.6%), you just didn’t notice because they didn’t need it. The 2018 group was back under 70% at 69.8%, including 10-of-16 in the loss in Knoxville and 23-of-37 in their tournament loss to Kansas State.
This year’s Kentucky team lost to Evansville and Utah, and gets less credit for winning a down SEC at 14-2 and counting. They’re just outside the Top 25 in KenPom. Unlike the most talented Kentucky teams of Calipari’s run, they need the help at the line.
And good grief, are they getting it.
Kentucky is third in the nation in free throw shooting at 79.5%. And they’re 10th in the nation at getting to the stripe. That’s a problem for everyone else.
The last time Kentucky shot less than 75% at the line was January 18. And even when teams defend them well without fouling, there’s just no mercy: 10-of-10 against Florida, 10-of-11 against Texas A&M in the last 10 days. Tennessee got a dose of this the first time: played well enough to be in it late, Jordan Bowden misses a wide open three that would’ve cut it to two with 2:30 left, end up losing by 13 because the Cats give you no mercy at the stripe, finishing 22-of-25. South Carolina is the only SEC team to get a break here, beating the Cats at the buzzer when Kentucky shot 25-of-36 (69.4%).
(You know who was great at this last year? Tennessee, an underrated 80.1% from the stripe in SEC play.)
At the moment, this is Calipari’s lowest-rated Kentucky squad in KenPom since the 2013 group that missed the tournament after Nerlens Noel went down. But you get absolutely nothing for free against these guys. For Rick Barnes to become the first Tennessee coach to win twice at Rupp Arena, the Vols will need every bit of that best basketball, and as many of those good looks to fall that didn’t go down in the first match-up as Rupp will afford.
It’s the late shift: 9:00 PM, ESPN.
Go Vols.
Following up from the other thread to do some maths 🙂 KenPom gives the Vols a 23% chance tonight and a 52% chance against Auburn on Saturday. That’s ~12% chance to win both, which probably pushes them into the 6-11 or 5-12 game on Thursday? Assuming Mizzou or UGA/Ole Miss, let’s say 55% chance to win, that translates to about 6.5%. Winning the SECT would be…harder. Probably assume they end up in the 8-9 game and have a 50% chance against Bama. Perhaps a slightly better chance against UK given not the home floor for 25%. And then…Florida? Mississippi State?… Read more »
My concern is if they’d still need to win that next game in the SEC Tournament, so win at UK, vs Auburn, win as the 5/6 seed Thursday, then beat Auburn/LSU/Florida Saturday. How does the committee view the non-UK teams in this league?
One thing’s for sure though: win out this week, and it’s at least a conversation going to Nashville.
Probably not as favorably, but in that situation, we’ve added 2 Q1 wins this week and then regardless of which non-UK opponent it is, that’s another one next week.
I’m not really arguing for the Vols to be in the NCAAT picture right now, but comparing NET sheets…why is Alabama on the fringes and Tennessee isn’t? Same number of Q1 wins and fewer Q3/Q4 losses. Bama with a higher SoS and NET, but why?
Bama cheatin’.