Tennessee Bubble Math: To The End

A tip of the cap to the 2018 and 2019 Vols, for whom no such fun was required and we spent the first week of March trying to figure out what makes a one seed. I’d be happy to write those posts every year. But in this year, to get to this point – a chance to be in the bubble conversation with a home win over a ranked foe on the last day of the regular season – and to arrive here via Rupp Arena? I’m delighted to write this one as well.

First this: beat Auburn. Any scenario that involves the phrase, “Maybe if we make it all the way to Sunday in the SEC Tournament,” will lead, even in its rare fulfillment, to the simple desire to just win the (Fulmerized) SEC Tournament for once. The Vols still have just two Quad 1 wins heading to senior day, and as we’ve documented at length, their strength of schedule will end up being good but not great. The core of this argument has to be what you’ve done for me lately. Beat Auburn to complete a Florida-Kentucky-Auburn triple kill, now we’re talking. Lose to the Tigers, and we’ll have to do it the hard way in Nashville.

Lessons From Cuonzo, Lessons From Bruce

As has been the case for much of the post-Lamonte run, the Vols’ closest program counterparts in KenPom are Bruce Pearl’s last team (a 9 seed at 19-14) and a trio of NIT squads from Cuonzo’s first two years and Ron Slay’s SEC Player of the Year season in 2003. Where other Vol squads watched bubble hopes burst when things fell apart in late February, including Rick Barnes’ first two teams, this group is very much trying to live that Cuonzo life, at least in the last week of the regular season.

The 2012 Vols played host to a Vanderbilt team a week away from earning a five seed in the NCAA Tournament. Tennessee won 68-61. The 2013 Vols played host to a Missouri team a week away from earning a nine seed. Tennessee won 64-62. The 2014 Vols got Missouri again for the finale. They came to Knoxville on the bubble, and left with a 72-45 beat down.

Those first two teams lost their first game in the SEC Tournament, and the ride ended there (technically shortly thereafter in the NIT). The third snuck into Dayton and almost snuck into the Elite Eight. All you’ve gotta do is get in.

Beat Auburn, and the Vols will cross a couple of thresholds. No team has earned an at-large bid with a record worse than 19-15. Beat the Tigers, and the Vols would have 14 losses on Selection Sunday if they don’t win the NCAA Tournament. Eleven teams have earned an at-large bid with 14 or 15 losses since expansion to 68 in 2011.

The 19-15 number has a much healthier sample size than the NET ratings, which were brand new last season. Here’s a look at the cut line in NET last season:

Team	Seed	NET	Record
Florida	10	31	19-15
Iowa	10	43	22-11
Seton Hall	10	57	20-13
Minnesota	10	61	21-13
Ohio State	11	55	19-14
Belmont	Dayton	47	26-5
Temple	Dayton	56	23-9
Arizona St.	Dayton	63	22-10
St. John’s	Dayton	73	21-12

The Vols are currently 57th in NET, within the margins from last season. Again, small sample size, and no guarantees: last season NC State (33) and Clemson (35) both missed the dance floor despite strong NET ratings.

Tennessee has only two Quad 1 wins, and Auburn’s loss to Texas A&M tonight should deny them an opportunity for a third on Saturday. However, Florida’s win at Georgia – especially if followed up by a win over Kentucky in Gainesville – would give the Vols one back.

The bad news: the selection committee might just pass on the SEC as a whole. The Vols join Arkansas, Mississippi State, and South Carolina as bubble hopefuls coming to the final game. But if the league’s perception suffers in the room, the Vols might get caught in the wash.

Tennessee’s best argument is what’s it’s doing right now. Its second best argument is hard to quantify, but the Vols have been competitive at Kansas, vs Florida State, and obviously just beat Kentucky. If you get people in the room to talk about the Vols, you can make this point. But you have to get in the conversation first, which requires a win over Auburn.

And this is also a chance to learn and grow from the last time the Vols beat Kentucky in incredibly emotional fashion, then got blindsided by Auburn in the SEC Tournament title game. That one came at the expense of a one seed and the first SEC Tournament championship since 1979. This time the stakes are lower, but not smaller.

The Vols are great story with an unwritten ending. The last chapter was an incredible turn of events. Will that be the climax, or can the Vols keep building something more?

Beat Auburn.