Tennessee-Florida four factors preview

Here’s a look at the four factors numbers for Tennessee’s game tomorrow against the Florida Gators. The conclusions are upfront, just after each team’s baseline, and the details follow.

Baseline

First up, here’s what each team is generally doing at this point in the season.

Summary and Score Prediction

On the all-important effective field goal percentage metrics, Florida’s defense appears to have a vast advantage when the Vols are shooting. On the flip side, the Vols’ defense has an advantage when the Gators are shooting, but it is more muted.

The same holds true for offensive rebounding percentage: The Vols appear to have a slight advantage on their own offensive side of the court, but Florida appears to have a more pronounced advantage when they have the ball.

It will come as no surprise that Florida has the advantage on both ends when it comes to turnovers.

If there’s any major advantage for the Vols, it comes at getting to the free-throw line, where they rank 63rd against Florida’s 228th defensive counterpart. Florida does have an advantage on the other end in this category, but it is not quite as pronounced.

So, the goals for the Vols in this game:

1. Minimize the weaknesses: Shoot well by playing inside-out, reduce turnovers by making safe, crisp passes, box out and rebound on defense.
2. Maximize the strengths: Clamp down on defense, but don’t foul unless it’s in the paint, get greedy for offensive rebounds, go through defenders and get to the rim to earn as many trips to the foul line as possible.

KenPom thinks this one is a toss-up, giving Florida a slight edge and putting the score at Florida 65, Tennessee 64.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: Most like Chattanooga and Mississippi State, and much better than the Vols.

Turnover %

Conclusion: Continued problems here for the Vols. Florida protects the ball pretty well.

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: Even.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: Advantage, Tennessee.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

Conclusions

Florida’s shooting defense isn’t spectacular, but Tennessee’s shooting woes are well-documented. And on the other side of the court, the Vols’ usual stout defense (the last Arkansas game notwithstanding) probably won’t have as much of an advantage as usual.

Turnover %

Conclusions

This gets more depressing every time I look at it. So, I’m typing this with my eyes closed.

Offensive Rebounding %

Conclusions

Looks like a Florida advantage here to me, both sides considered.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusions

Tennessee’s ability to get to the free-throw line has somewhat quietly become a strength of the team. Florida plays such aggressive defense that they tend to put opponents there a lot. On the other side of the ball, Tennessee also tends to put opponents there, but Florida is not as good as Tennessee at making it happen. Advantage, Tennessee.

Go Vols.