Gameday on Rocky Top

The thing I keep coming back to most often – “Georgia’s defense is the best in the country” – is, of course, the most hopeful scenario. So maybe don’t trust it yet; trust it a lot if it shows up well against Alabama, which has the best offense in the country. Stay tuned next week when we get to try to solve that problem.

But by the end of the year, that’s the hope: Georgia’s defense is, in fact, not just the best in the nation, but the best we’ve seen in a while.

The last time we saw anything better, via SP+, was 2017 Alabama. (Mis)matched against the anemic Vol offense in Butch Jones’ final season, Tennessee went for 108 total yards at 2.35 yards per play, and zero offensive points. Before then, the last time Tennessee saw a defense who ended up in that neighborhood was 2012 Florida, Will Muschamp’s eventual Sugar Bowl team. The high-powered Vol offense scored 20 points, but had just 4.72 yards per play, their lowest total of the year before imploding at Vanderbilt.

The 2012 Gators ended the year at 6.6 (points allowed vs the average offense) in defensive SP+. 2017 Alabama finished at 5.6. Georgia was at 6.2 before playing the Vols, actually coming down a bit to 7.1.

The Vols gained 214 yards on Georgia last week at 3.40 yards per play. That’s clearly not going to get it done against an elite team, and is just as indicative of the outcome as turning the ball over three times in the second half.

As a result, Tennessee’s defense faced 77 plays, its second-highest total in the last two years. The Vols allowed 44 points (37 for Georgia’s offense), got hurt over the middle, and don’t come out of Athens carrying a world of confidence.

But when you put all the numbers on the table this season, and consider what’s happening around the rest of the league? Pick whichever one makes you feel best, because they both might still be true after the Georgia game:

• Tennessee might have the second best defense in the SEC
• Tennessee might have its best defense in 10+ years

In SP+, both are true right now. Georgia’s otherworldly defense leads the nation at 7.1 in SP+; Ohio State is number two at 14.1, a full seven points behind. The field gets more crowded from there, but among SEC defenses after three weeks and plenty of points:

Team	SP+ Defense	National Rank
Georgia	7.1	1
Tennessee	17.3	13
Auburn	18	18
Florida	19.4	20
Alabama	19.8	22
South Carolina	19.9	23
Missouri	20.5	27
Kentucky	21.2	28
Texas A&M	21.6	29
LSU	22.5	37
Arkansas	26.3	58
Ole Miss	27.7	65
Vanderbilt	27.8	66
Mississippi St	27.9	67

Tennessee’s defensive rating of 17.3 is a hair ahead of last season’s 17.4, spurred on by a fantastic defensive effort in the six-game winning streak to close 2019. That rating was Tennessee’s best of the decade, which isn’t overly shocking; the 2015 Vol defense came closest at 17.8. What is more shocking is the size of the gap between where the Vols are now and where we’ve been in the last few years:

Season	SP+ Defense
2009	15.5
2020	17.3
2019	17.4
2015	17.8
2011	18.8
2014	19.9
2010	23.6
2016	25.2
2017	25.7
2013	26.1
2012	28.3
2018	28.9

In the post-Fulmer era, only Monte Kiffin’s 2009 unit faired better than last year, and this year’s potential. And, in the spirit of having a chance to win every week, that’s a group – 2015, 2019, 2009 – you want to be in. Much better than the company Tennessee’s defense kept in 2016-18.

So maybe we’re not ready to think of the 2020 Vol defense as elite, or even “very good”. But if the numbers hold weight, they’ll play their way into at least that second category.

Which brings us to Kentucky.

Fresh off gaining 157 total yards at 2.96 yards per play against Mississippi State – six interceptions, 24 points – the Cats head to Knoxville. Last year Kentucky scored 13 points against us, seven the year before that. In winning four straight after losing to us in 2019, Kentucky scored 38, 50, 45, and 37 points. In winning three straight after losing to us in 2018, Kentucky scored 34, 56, and 27. Jeremy Pruitt’s defense has done some of its very best work against Kentucky.

Tennessee’s offense has its own demons to exorcise, and I’m not sure how much of that will take place the next two weeks. But if Tennessee’s defense is simply as good as statistically and historically advertised? They can carry the day against a team like Kentucky. And along the way, might start getting a little more credit and higher expectations.

Tennessee opened as a 6.5-point favorite over Kentucky this week, and the line has since moved to Tennessee -6. Here’s what the GRT Statsy Preview Machine thinks about that.

From the perspective of Tennessee

Each team has played three games in 2020, so the machine will only look at current year data.

• Tennessee’s Scoring Offense: 29
• Kentucky’s Scoring Offense: 26
• Tennessee’s Scoring Defense: 27.7
• Kentucky’s Scoring Defense: 24.3

Tennessee’s offense against Kentucky’s defense

Kentucky’s scoring defense of 24.3 is most similar to the following prior Tennessee opponent(s) (FBS only):

• South Carolina 25.3
• Georgia 12.3

In case you’re wondering like I was, Missouri’s an even worse comp than Georgia, as the Tigers’ scoring defense is currently 38.

Tennessee scored 21 points against Georgia and 31 points against South Carolina. Combined, that’s 138% of what those teams usually give up, so the estimated points for Tennessee against Kentucky is 33.6.

Kentucky’s offense against Tennessee’s defense

Kentucky’s scoring offense of 26 is most similar to the following prior Tennessee opponent(s) (FBS only):

• Missouri 25.3
• South Carolina 30.7

Tennessee allowed Missouri 12 points South Carolina 27 points, which combined is 70% of what those teams usually score. So the estimated points for Kentucky against Tennessee is 18.2.

Estimated score: Tennessee 33.6, Kentucky 18.2

From the perspective of Kentucky

Kentucky’s offense against Tennessee’s defense

Tennessee’s scoring defense of 27.7 is most similar to the following prior Kentucky opponent(s) (FBS only):

• Mississippi State 26.3
• Auburn 22.7

Kentucky scored 13 points against Auburn and 24 points against Mississippi State. Combined, that is 76% of what those teams usually give up. Estimated points for Kentucky against Tennessee: 21.

Tennessee’s offense against Kentucky’s defense

Tennessee’s scoring offense of 29 is most similar to the following prior Kentucky opponent(s) (FBS only):

• Auburn 21.7
• Mississippi State 20

Kentucky allowed 29 points to Auburn and 2 points to Mississippi State [FLAG!]. That’s 74% of what those teams usually score, which makes the estimated points for Tennessee against Kentucky: 21.5.

Estimated score: Kentucky 21, Tennessee 21.5

SPM Final Estimates

Combining the results from both perspectives, here’s what we get:

SPM Final estimated score: Tennessee 27.5, Kentucky 19.6

SPM Final estimated spread: Tennessee -7.9

Difference between the SPM and the Vegas opening spread: 1.4

That makes this yet another Category 1 game for the Statsy Preview Machine, meaning it’s not overly confident about its conclusion that Tennessee will cover because it is not far off from the Vegas spread.

Eyeball adjustments

The only thing that really jumps out at me from the above concerns Mississippi State’s offense as a comp for judging Kentucky’s defense. Leach’s Air Raid exploded onto the scene with 44 points against LSU. It was then immediately grounded with 14 points against Arkansas and 2 points against Kentucky. Also, LSU’s defense appears to be suspect, as it allowed 45 points to Missouri, a team that scored only 12 points against the Vols. Also also, Auburn scored more points against Kentucky than they usually get.

For those reasons, I am highly skeptical of Mississippi State as a reliable comp and thus the estimated points for Tennessee against Kentucky from Kentucky’s perspective. If we exclude Mississippi State as a comp, that leaves Ole Miss as the only other possible comp for this year. The Rebels’ scoring offense is 41.7, and they got 42 total points (35 in regulation) against the Wildcats. For regulation, that’s 84% of what they usually get. Combining that with the Auburn comps, those teams got essentially 100% of what they usually get, which would mean Tennessee would score what it usually does: 29. So, the estimated points for Tennessee against Kentucky from Kentucky’s perspective would be 29 instead of 21.5. That would make the Kentucky perspective Tennessee 29, Kentucky 21, and the cumulative result Tennessee 31.3, Kentucky 19.6. That would make Tennessee an 11.5-point favorite.

So, my eyeballs are raising their eyebrows at one component of the Statsy Preview Machine’s analysis and going instead with a predicted score of Tennessee 31, Kentucky 20. Both I and the Statsy Preview Machine agree, though, that the Vols should cover the 6- to 6.5-point spread this week.

Other predictions from other systems

Vegas has Tennessee as a 6- (current) to 6.5-point (opening) favorite. With an over/under of 46-49, that translates to something like Tennessee 27, Kentucky 21.

Bill Connelly’s SP+ likes Tennessee by 5.2 (Vols 27, Wildcats 22) and gives the Vols a 62% chance of winning. He’s using a 6-point spread and does not like the Vols to cover.

Bottom line

The GRT Statsy Preview Machine thinks the Vols will cover either the opening 6.5-point or the current 6-point spread. I do as well. But it’s close enough to not feel especially confident about it.

• Vegas: Tennessee 27, Kentucky 21 (Vols -6 to -6.5)
• SP+: Tennessee 27, Kentucky 22 (doesn’t cover)
• GRT’s SPM: Tennessee 28, Kentucky 20 (covers)
• Me: Tennessee 31, Kentucky 20 (covers)

Season results on Tennessee games

• Week 4: The SPM and I were both right (albeit overconfident) in saying the Vols would cover against South Carolina.
• Week 5: The SPM and I were both wrong in thinking the Vols would not cover and would win by only 6 points. They won by 23.
• Week 6: The SPM was right, but I was wrong. The SPM predicted Georgia to cover a 14.5-point spread with a score of Georgia 29, Tennessee 12, while my eyeball adjustment revised that to say the Bulldogs would not cover with a score of Georgia 24, Tennessee 20. Georgia covered with a score of Georgia 44, Tennessee 21.

What do y’all think?

News flash: Spreads matter. We generally measure the GRT Statsy Preview Machine against the Vegas opening spreads, and although the machine has done well in the past, it’s only batting .500 so far this season. Last week was particularly bad: Against Vegas opening spreads, it went 11-16 (40.74%) overall, 3-7 (30%) in Category 2, and 1-3 (25%) in Category 3. For the season, the SPM is now 57-58 (49.57%) in Category 1, 25-24 (51.02%) in Category 2, and 11-11 (50%) in Category 3.

No big deal, it’s a weird season after all, right?

But the machine is tearing it up if you measure it against the same spreads that other systems are using. For instance, against the same spreads that SP+ measures against, our machine went 19-8 (70.37%) overall for the second week in a row last week. For the season against those spreads, it’s 70-45 (60.87%). So yeah, spreads matter.

SP+ went 11-16 (40.74%) against its spreads last week. It did slightly better against the same spreads we use (Vegas opening spreads), as it was 12-15 (44.44%). Against Vegas opening spreads for the season, it is still a killer 70-45 (60.87%).

Below are the GRT Statsy Preview Machine’s picks for Week 7 of the 2020 college football season. As always, if you’re wondering why we do this or what I mean when I refer to “confidence” and when I place game predictions into different categories, check out this post.

GRT SPM 2020 Week 7 Picks

Here’s what the machine is thinking this week:

There are five Category 3 games that the SPM likes particularly well this week.

What are you favorite games this week?

College football starts early this week with a game tonight between scrappy Coastal Carolina and No. 21 Louisiana. Old friends Georgia State take on Arkansas State tomorrow night, and Friday features a couple of ranked non-Power 5 teams in action on ESPN.

The Vols host Kentucky at noon on the SEC Network, and then there are five (Vanderbilt-Missouri got postponed) other SEC games to watch on Gameday, including the big one, No. 3 Georgia at No. 2 Alabama at 8:00 on CBS.

First up is this week’s college football TV schedule curated just for Vols fans. A full and searchable college football TV schedule for this week is below the curated version.

Wednesday, October 14, 2020

Maybe?

Thursday, October 15, 2020

Go Panthers?

Friday, October 16, 2020

Again, maybe?

Gameday, October 17, 2020

The main event for Vols fans is Tennessee taking on Kentucky at high noon on the SEC Network. But set your DVRs for the Auburn-South Carolina game, too, to get a look at how Auburn is doing against a former opponent of the Vols.

The afternoon slate will provide a look at three future Vols’ opponents in Florida, Arkansas, and Texas A&M.

The big game — future Vols’ opponent No. 2 Alabama and former Vols’ opponent No. 3 Georgia — gets an 8:00 kick on CBS. The Vanderbilt-Missouri game was postponed.

Full searchable college football TV schedule

Here’s the entire 2020 college football TV schedule for this week:

Below is a look at Tennessee’s national stat rankings side-by-side with the counterpart rankings for the Kentucky Wildcats.

When the Vols have the ball

Link to table

Where’s the opportunity?

Sigh. Passing game?

Where’s the danger?

It looks like it’s going to be difficult to run against these guys, and it looks like our third down conversion problems aren’t going to get any better this week. Basically, Kentucky may not be up to Georgia’s level on defense, but Tennessee’s offense is going to have its hands full again this weekend.

Gameplan for the Vols on offense

Do better. Don’t turn the ball over. Hope the defense can carry the day.

Vols on defense

Link to table

Where’s the opportunity?

Okay, that’s better. The Vols appear to have a somewhat significant advantage on defense over Kentucky in most areas . . .

Where’s the danger?

. . . except in the run game and on third down. Also, Kentucky apparently doesn’t throw interceptions.

Gameplan for the Vols on defense

What I said against Georgia holds true in this game: Win first down. Get them off schedule to get an advantage on third down and then win third down. Any turnover in our favor will be really, really valuable.

Special teams

Link to table

The Vols appear to have the advantage on special teams.

Turnovers and penalties

Link to table

We’ve seen how much this can change in a week, so it’s hard to say whether either team has an actual advantage here. Just protect the ball and limit the penalties.