Here’s our color-coded look at the Vols’ national rankings in each of the official NCAA stat categories as of the win over UTSA. There was, of course, some improvement in the numbers as a result of the victory, as the run game is about as good as it’s ever been under Heupel and the defense is elite at creating negative plays. There is still much room to improve, though, especially in the passing game on offense, penalties, and turnover margin.
Offense
If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.
As expected after a relatively easy game, the offensive numbers improved a bit. The rushing offense is now not only better than last year’s season-long ranking of 26, but better than the prior year’s ranking of 11 as well. Also in the green are interceptions thrown and TFLs allowed. Total offense and scoring offense both improved significantly but still have some ground to make up.
In the red are most passing game numbers and down efficiencies.
Defense
If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.
This 2023 defense makes its living in the opponent’s backfield. Overall, the unit is much-improved from a yards-allowed perspective and a bit better than last year on the scoreboard. They’re much better at defending the pass and on first down. They’re not bad at anything except maybe intercepting the ball, and they can still improve against the run and on third down.
Special Teams
If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.
Not much to note here. Net punting has improved, but is still a long way from green.
Turnovers and Penalties
If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.
Penalties improved after UTSA, which was much-needed for a team that has not yet found the Heuper-drive button. They could also dial up the turnover margin.
Tennessee opened as a 20-point favorite over the Roadrunners this week, and as of the time I write this, it is 21.5. What does Hat Guy have to say about that?
The Data
Tennessee’s Scoring Offense this year: 31.6667
Tennessee’s Rushing Offense this year: 205.0000
Tennessee’s Passing Offense this year: 242.3333
UTSA’s Scoring Offense this year: 21.0000
UTSA’s Rushing Offense this year: 162.3333
UTSA’s Passing Offense this year: 220.6667
Tennessee’s Scoring Defense this year: 18.3333
Tennessee’s Rushing Defense this year: 119
Tennessee’s Passing Defense this year: 177.3
UTSA’s Scoring Defense this year: 22.3333
UTSA’s Rushing Defense this year: 128.7
UTSA’s Passing Defense this year: 210.7
From the perspective of Tennessee
Vols’ offense
The UTSA scoring defense of 22.3333 is most similar to the following prior FBS Tennessee opponents:
Florida 15.7
Virginia 42.3
The Vols scored 16 points against Florida and 49 against Virginia, 112% of what those teams usually give up. Estimated points for Tennessee against UTSA: 25
The UTSA rushing defense of 128.7 is most similar to the following prior FBS Tennessee opponents:
Florida 83.7
Virginia 191
Tennessee ran for 100 against the Gators and 287 against the Cavaliers, 141% of what they usually allow. Estimated rushing yards for Tennessee against UTSA: 181.5
The UTSA passing defense of 210.7 is most similar to the following prior FBS Tennessee opponents:
Florida 172.7
Virginia 260.7
Tennessee got 287 through the air against Florida and 212 against Virginia, 115% of their usual. Estimated passing yards for Tennessee against UTSA: 242.3
Vols defense
The UTSA scoring offense of 21 is most similar to the following prior FBS Tennessee opponents:
Virginia 20.7
Florida 29.7
Tennessee gave up 13 to Virginia and 29 to Florida, 83% when combined. Estimated points for UTSA against Tennessee: 17.4
The UTSA rushing offense of 162.33 is most similar to the following prior FBS Tennessee opponents:
Florida 174.3
Virginia 68
The Vols gave up 183 on the ground to Florida and 95 to Virginia, 115% of their usual. Estimated rushing yards for UTSA against Tennessee: 186.7
The UTSA passing offense of 220.67 is most similar to the following prior FBS Tennessee opponents:
Florida 244
Virginia 248.7
Florida passed for 166 against the Vols, and Virginia passed for 106, 55%. Estimated passing yards for UTSA against Tennessee: 121.4
The Tennessee scoring defense of 18.3333 is most similar to the following prior UTSA opponent(s) (FBS only):
Army 15.3
Texas State 28.3
Against Army, UTSA scored 29 points against Army, 20 against Texas State, 112%. Estimated points for UTSA against Tennessee: 20.5
The Tennessee rushing defense of 119 is most similar to the following prior UTSA opponent(s) (FBS only):
Army 117.3
Texas State 128
UTSA ran for 121 yards against Army and 158 against Texas State, 114%. Estimated rushing yards for UTSA against Tennessee: 135.7
The Tennessee passing defense of 177.3 is most similar to the following prior UTSA opponent(s) (FBS only):
Army 175
Texas State 304
UTSA passed for 239 yards against Army and 214 against Texas State, 95%. Estimated passing yards for UTSA against Tennessee: 168.4
UTSA defense
The Tennessee scoring offense of 31.6667 is most similar to the following prior UTSA opponent(s) (FBS only):
Army 35.7
Houston 23.7
Against Army, UTSA allowed 37 points. They gave up 17 to Houston. That’s 91%. Estimated points for Tennessee against UTSA: 28.8.
The Tennessee rushing offense of 205.0000 is most similar to the following prior UTSA opponent(s) (FBS only):
Texas State 191
Army 235.7
Against Texas State, UTSA allowed 31 rushing yards. Against Army, they allowed 254 rushing yards. That’s 67%. Estimated rushing yards for Tennessee against UTSA: 137.4
The Tennessee passing offense of 242.3333 is most similar to the following prior UTSA opponent(s) (FBS only):
Houston 239.3
Texas State 264.7
Against Houston, UTSA allowed 233 passing yards to Houston and 211 to Texas State, 88%. Estimated passing yards for Tennessee against UTSA: 213.3.
Hat Guy disagrees with the Vegas opening spread by 12.1 points.
Guts and Eyeballs
You just keep thinking that the Vols are going to get their act together and have an offensive explosion. But we haven’t seen it yet, so the eyeballs and the guts don’t agree. Giving the guts a few and going with Tennessee 35, UTSA 17 (Vols -18).
Other predictions from other systems
As I said before, the Vols opened as 20-point favorites and are currently 21.5-point favorites. With an over/under of 56 (opening), that translates to something like Tennessee 38, UTSA 18.
The Vols host the UTSA Roadrunners on the SEC Network this Saturday at 4:00 p.m. That game is up against the CBS Game of the Week, No. 15 Ole Miss at No. 13 Alabama.
Kicking things off Saturday are a trio of games on the ESPN family of networks, including No. 4 Florida State traveling to Clemson at noon on ABC and a couple of SEC matchups of future Vols foes also at noon.
The evening features a slate of Top 25 matchups plus a No. 3 Texas team heading to Baylor. The biggest game of the evening appears to be No. 6 Ohio State at No. 9 Notre Dame at 7:30 on NBC.
The full GRT college football TV schedule for the week is at the bottom of the post, but first is our suggested viewing schedule curated just for Vols fans.
Gameday, September 23, 2023
Away
Home
Time
TV
NOON
22 Florida
Kentucky
12:00 PM
ESPN
Texas A&M
Arkansas
12:00 PM
SECN
AFTERNOON
Georgia
Auburn
3:30 PM
CBS
Kansas
Texas
3:30 PM
ABC
Missouri
Vanderbilt
4:00 PM
SECN
13 LSU
20 Mississippi
6:00 PM
ESPN
EVENING
South Carolina
21 Tennessee
7:30 PM
SECN
Full searchable college football TV schedule
Here’s the entire searchable and sortable college football TV schedule for this week:
The first couple of weeks of a college football season, you’re pretty much just guessing what’s in the box. You don’t begin to actually know until you have two or three games in the books. Even then, the picture is a bit murky and continues to change as the season progresses.
So what do we actually have, right now, compared to the last couple of years? I wanted to know, so I dusted off our old color-coded look at the Vols’ national rankings in each of the official NCAA stat categories.
Offense
If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.
The run game on offense appears to be about the same as the season-long numbers from last year, but the passing game is waaaaay off and dragging down the overall offensive numbers. That doesn’t really tell us anything that our eyeballs haven’t. The odd thing, though, is that total passing yards isn’t that far off that of Heupel’s first season. And yet that 2021 team was still able to score points at Heupel’s usual clip. A slightly better run game, better efficiency on first and third downs, and a huge disparity in passing yards per completion seem to explain.
Defense
If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.
Is the defense actually better? It looks like yeah, mostly. The pass defense was a glaring problem the last couple of years and was probably the offseason focus this summer. But so far, it looks like maybe we’ve robbed the run defense a bit to shore up the pass defense. It doesn’t appear to be a one-for-one trade, though, as the gains against the pass are greater than the losses against the run.
Special Teams
If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.
The team has stepped backward on punt and kickoff return defense, and the punting game is, so far, no better than last year.
Turnovers and Penalties
If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.
So this is interesting. Two seasons and three games in, it’s looking like Heupel’s teams are just generally terrible at penalties. I would not have guessed that of a team regularly trotting out one of the nation’s top offenses. Perhaps seeing a breakdown of offensive and defensive penalties would shed some light on that. But it’s both good news and bad news. Bad news, because you don’t want to hamstring yourself, especially in crucial games against good teams. Good news, because penalties don’t seem to be the main problem for this squad so far.
I don’t know why I keep underestimating The Swamp. It seems like every couple of years I’m thinking (at some point, whether before, during, or just before I’m reminded yet again that it doesn’t always matter) that Tennessee is the better team and it should follow that the Vols should win. I have a hazy recollection of bad things happening against Florida, especially in their habitat, but a curse? Eh, not really a thing. Like Bigfoot, Yeti, Loch Ness, the Bermuda Triangle. Make believe.
And then it makes me believe it again. Giving up a late 63-yard touchdown on 4th and 14 for the go-ahead score? Allowing a receiver to get behind a prevent defense in the end zone on the last play of the game to win? Call it self-fulfilling prophecy. Call it The Weirdness. Call it simple home field advantage. Call it whatever you like, but next time, Joel, remember that it’s real. (Side note: I went looking for the link where I called this phenomenon The Weirdness and got lost in a rabbit hole on Podcast Episode 155 where Will and I go on a five-minute tangent about donuts at around the 5:00 mark. And Will didn’t say that word, by the way. The translation bot disparages our beloved pastor.)
Anyway, the 2023 edition of The Swamp Thing features a Vols squad attempting to play with one arm (and sometimes two) tied behind their metaphorical (and sometimes not metaphorical!) backs.
After a beautiful 71-yard, six-play touchdown drive to begin the game, Tennessee’s offense gnawed off an arm with a series of pre-snap penalties that killed three consecutive drives. Here’s the rap sheet:
Drive 2: False start on the second 1st and 10. Never recovered. Punt. Afterwards, the Gators ate 7.5 minutes of clock and scored a touchdown.
Drive 3: False start on the first play of the drive. Pressure (435 pounds of it!) on 2nd and 12 resulted in an interception, which was returned 39 yards. An unsportsmanlike conduct penalty at the end of the play moved the Gators to within 9 yards of the goal line. Touchdown, Gators.
Drive 4: Another false start, again on the very first play of the drive. Sack on 2nd and 12. Never recovered. Punt. Gators went 55 yards for another touchdown.
After the first, the Vols’ remaining drives ended in three punts and an interception. Three of those four drives were killed by pre-snap penalties that smelled distinctly of swamp water. Josh Heupel’s high-flying offense can score points in buckets when it gets ahead of the chains and can leverage momentum to reach cruising altitude. But when it gets off schedule, it has trouble just getting off the ground. It’s like the opening drive conceived a confidence like that of the Black Knight in Monty Python’s Holy Grail. I’M INVINCIBLE!
Let’s talk about that . . . tackle?
Speaking of the Black Knight, there was also a moment where the defense decided to play without any arms whatsoever:
Oh, boy. That is one of the most egregiously inept efforts at tackling that I have ever seen. Actually, it looks more like the dude just plain decided not to do it.
When my oldest daughter was super young (maybe 5?), we put her in a church soccer camp thing. I don’t know what we were thinking. At that age, she thought she was a horse. Or Simba from the Lion King, depending on the day.
If you’ve ever watched 5-year-olds on a soccer field, you know that it’s basically a herd of baby animals kicking each other. They have no understanding of spacing or passing or strategy. Their goal is simply to find the ball and kick it. The 5-stars at that age understand that they’re supposed to kick it in a certain direction, but that’s about as far as they get with strategy in that division.
But even that wasn’t in my daughter’s playbook. Her entire strategy consisted of just running after the herd. Man, she was good at it, too. She had a nose for the back of the pack, identifying it and seeking it out with an Olympic single-minded purposefulness. If at any point the tide shifted and she suddenly found herself next to the ball in the middle of a blender of shin-hacking appendages, she would instantly spin and sprint toward safety at the end of the line. If they were giving out nicknames, hers would have been “Caboose.”
Watching #5 on that play reminded me of watching my daughter on the soccer field trying to avoid actually playing soccer.
I love my daughter. It turns out, she’s just not cut out for soccer. She’s 27 now, and the good news is that she no longer thinks she’s a horse.
Anyway, I love these college football kids, too, almost as if they were my own. I know it’s not the usual way to root for a sports team, and I’m not judging anyone for doing it differently. But just from my own perspective as a father of three daughters (27, 21, and 12), I view these guys as people to love. I want to see them grow in maturity, strength of mind and character, and faith. I want them to learn discipline, to work hard, to trust teammates, to be a reliable brother and friend, to succeed and learn how to handle that success, and to learn how to deal with failure when it inevitably comes. When a kid has great success and earns the adoration of the masses, I hope the coaches keep him grounded. When a kid makes a mistake and is relentlessly reminded of it through every data feed on his phone, I hope that the coaching staff will balance out the good work of natural consequences with the right amount of constructive criticism spoken in love from people he actually knows and trusts.
There’s no getting around it. That was a terrible effort, and #5 is quickly developing a reputation for being an especially poor tackler (although I will point out that he was the team’s second-leading tackler Saturday night.) He’s certainly hearing about it now, both from his inner circle of coaches and teammates and from all corners of the internet, including this site.
I assume that his goal is to play in the NFL, and I am rooting for him to accomplish all that his heart desires and to grow in all situations, good and bad. I don’t know him, but if I did, I would give him a hug today. And I’d tell him to use his arms. And I would say it with a wink so that he knew that I was joking but also not joking. Joking, because this is football and it’s really not that important in the grand scheme of things. And not joking, because I am really rooting for him to achieve his goals.
I’m not sure why CBS would have chosen Georgia-South Carolina over Tennessee-Florida for its 3:30 time slot today, but I’m glad they did. This is the last year of CBS getting first dibs, by the way. For big games, I’ll miss the music, but not much else. Verne hasn’t been calling those games for seven years now. I like Nessler, but the play-by-play guys haven’t been the issue for me. I don’t even remember (and can’t find) the color analyst before Danielson, but whoever it was, I liked him better. 🙂 And no, it’s not because Danielson says bad things about my team; it’s because he’s rude to his play-by-play, talking over him, correcting him, etc. Oh, look! I’m on a tangent!
Anyway, we have the prime time 7:00 p.m. ESPN slot with Chris Fowler and Kirk Herbstriet tonight for the big Vols-Gators game, so woo. As appetizers, we also have a handful of noon games for ranked teams we’d like to see upset and the aforementioned South Carolina-Georgia game on CBS at 3:30. Will is likely rooting for Georgia in this one because he wants both teams to be undefeated when they meet in November. I’ll be pulling for the Gamecocks because I want to win the East and I’d like to have some cushion, please and thank you. Who do y’all root for in this one?
The full GRT college football TV schedule for the week is at the bottom of the post, but first is our suggested viewing schedule curated just for Vols fans.
Gameday, September 16, 2023
Away
Home
Time
TV
NOON
15 Kansas State
Missouri
12:00 PM
SECN
3 Florida State
Boston College
12:00 PM
ABC
7 Penn State
Illinois
12:00 PM
FOX
14 LSU
Mississippi State
12:00 PM
ESPN
AFTERNOON
South Carolina
1 Georgia
3:30 PM
CBS
EVENING
11 Tennessee
Florida
7:00 PM
ESPN
Full searchable college football TV schedule
Here’s the entire searchable and sortable college football TV schedule for this week:
Peyton Manning threw 9,380 passes in his NFL career. In the modern era, here’s the rest of that list for quarterbacks who finished their college career at Tennessee (via Pro Football Reference):
Pat Ryan had 657 career attempts and made 19 starts, including Week 1 for the New York Jets in 1984.
Heath Shuler was the third overall pick in the 1994 draft, making 22 starts for Washington and then New Orleans as injuries took their toll. Shuler had 593 career pass attempts.
Bobby Scott had 500 career attempts for New Orleans, including a Week 1 start in 1976, and spent much of his career backing up Archie Manning.
Next on the list: Josh Dobbs, who enters the 2023 season with 85 career attempts.
He’ll also enter Week 1 as the projected starter for the Arizona Cardinals:
Sources: The #AZCardinals are expected have Josh Dobbs as their starting QB this week, with rookie Clayton Tune getting backup reps. They’ll evaluate the situation each week, but this is how it begins. pic.twitter.com/eXqXUFj7qv
He’ll join Manning, Ryan, Shuler, Scott, and Dewey Warren (1968 with Cincinnati) as former Vols to make a Week 1 start at quarterback in the modern era. That being the list, he’s the first Vol to do it since Manning, and the second since Shuler, who made his last Week 1 start in 1997.
Back in those days, Tennessee had an incredible line of quarterbacks who carried the program to new heights from 1989-2007. Shuler, Manning, Tee Martin and Erik Ainge were all drafted, while Andy Kelly won two SEC titles and Casey Clausen made two trips to Atlanta.
At this position, the Vols how have the potential for a similar lineage. Hendon Hooker continues to recover from his knee injury in November, but could have opportunities in Detroit with Jared Goff’s contract soon to expire. On campus, when Virginia punted the Vols back to the seven yard line on Saturday, I know many of us were thinking, “…I mean, let’s just see if he can. Like, just give Joe a shot on first down, and if he can’t throw it 93 yards, it’s 2nd-and-10.” And behind him is one of the highest-rated prospects the Vols have ever signed.
The mark of a great program is the way it isn’t beholden to one great individual, or one great team. It’s what we’ve seen from Rick Barnes and company in basketball, even after Grant Williams and company made their way to the NBA. And it’s what Tennessee will have a chance to do at quarterback under Josh Heupel.
Between the good old days and present glory was a long wilderness, in which no one shined a brighter light than Dobbs. (Shout out as well to Tyler Bray, who had a nine-year career as an NFL backup). Tennessee’s on-field success last fall was so transformative, it helped us view the past in healthier ways as well. And now, into the future on Sundays, Dobbs has the opportunity to continue to grow his legacy among Tennessee fans who loved watching him get his shot with the Titans late last fall.
From an NFL standpoint, Dobbs is already one of the five best quarterbacks to call Tennessee home. And he’s earned himself another opportunity now, with Kyler Murray unavailable until at least Week 5, to make more good memories – not just in the past, but in the present.
That’s been a moving target these past 15 years. Some seasons it was bowl eligibility, others just a fresh start. Just to play at all in 2020, which weirdly seems so long ago now.
Above all, of course, was hope. Always hope. Always here, when the distance to kickoff can be measured in hours. And quickly gone in many seasons for many teams.
Tennessee cycled through stages of hope in the post-Fulmer era, which at several points crossed over into stages of grief. I will still submit that the entire program itself felt particularly vulnerable during a pair of unique coaching-and-athletic-director changes.
And now here, 60something hours from Nashville, Tennessee carries the kind of hope that comes with a receipt.
In those 60 hours, it will probably feel more distant and less necessary to talk about the past, because at that point “the past” becomes 2022. That past enabled this present. And this present is real good.
I was a history major; sometimes I still can’t help myself. One of my favorite games from childhood was the last time Tennessee and Virginia met, the Sugar Bowl following the 1990 season. I was nine years old, and Tennessee scored touchdowns on its final three possessions, the last in the final minute, to win 23-22. It was great.
It was also 33 years ago, which would be like someone telling nine-year-old me about something from the 1957 campaign. I’m pretty sure my dad, who was five years old then, doesn’t even remember that one. I’m pretty sure my son, who is five years old now, has much to look forward to.
He’s got a Joe Milton t-shirt jersey. That’s part of the good of the world we live in now, where he can wear not just the QB’s number but his name, and his cousin can support Jonas Aidoo in the same fashion. They’ve got Ronald Acuña Jr. in their closets too, an incredible time to be in the Vols/Braves demographic. My biggest sports crisis is whether to buy him a new Grant Williams jersey now that he’s no longer in Boston.
This childlike way is free from the burdens of how we got here, it just enjoys the moment. And a healthy present moment can also establish healthier connections to the past. Because our sons and daughters could also buy a Josh Dobbs Arizona Cardinals jersey right now. If he indeed earns the Week 1 start, he’ll become just the third quarterback who finished his career at Tennessee to start a season opener since Pat Ryan.
Dobbs and his teams lived the highs and lows of those cycles of hope and grief more than most these past 15 years. There are some incredible line items on those seasons. And now it feels like those moments are even more free.
That’s what hope does: not just the present, but the past.
And now, in 60 hours, the future becomes the present.
There’s a beautiful interconnectedness in all of this; always is with sports. It’s always about more than just winning.
And at the same time, as we’ve shared a lot in talking about last season, the real prize in all of this isn’t winning the national championship, but being able to.
Maybe there will always be an idiot optimist in us who will need counseling if we go 14-1. Maybe. Maybe we’ll get good enough for long enough again that we’ll have the luxury of taking things for granted.
But at the start of the season, Tennessee is right where we belong: back in the championship conversation.
Things are slower over here these days, and I just kind of assumed the picks contest would be something we let go of…but I’ve just come to realize how much I just really enjoy running this thing. Some of my oldest friends, who may even still be floating around this site, can tell you about versions of this contest we ran over long, long, l-o-n-g email threads back in the late 90s. I don’t know how to do a football season without one. Turns out, don’t really want to either.
So: welcome to the 2023 Gameday on Rocky Top picks contest! The link will take you to Fun Office Pools, where we’ve run this game with confidence points for years and years. Same rules apply, as always: we pick 20 games each week straight up, you assign 20 points to the outcome you’re most confident in, 1 point to the outcome you’re least confident in, and away we go. Picks are due by kickoff of each game, and even if you fall behind and/or asleep at the wheel, you’ll earn just one point lower than the lowest total score that week.
Any questions, holler in the comments. Here’s the Week 1 slate, in all its glory:
Thursday, August 31
NC State at UConn – 7:30 PM – CBS Sports Network
Florida at #14 Utah – 8:00 PM – ESPN
Nebraska at Minnesota – 8:00 PM – FOX
Friday, September 1
Louisville at Georgia Tech – 7:30 PM – ESPN
Stanford at Hawaii – 11:00 PM – CBS Sports Network
Saturday, September 2
Virginia vs #12 Tennessee (Nashville) – 12:00 PM – ABC
Colorado at #17 TCU – 12:00 PM – FOX
ETSU at Jacksonville State – 2:00 PM – ESPN+
Boise State at #10 Washington – 3:30 PM – ABC
South Florida at Western Kentucky – 3:30 PM – CBS Sports Network
UTSA at Houston – 7:00 PM – FS1
West Virginia at #7 Penn State – 7:30 PM – NBC
#21 North Carolina vs South Carolina (Charlotte) – 7:30 PM – ABC
South Alabama at #24 Tulane – 8:00 PM – ESPNU
Old Dominion at Virginia Tech – 8:00 PM – ACC Network
Coastal Carolina at UCLA – 10:30 PM – ESPN
Sunday, September 3
Northwestern at Rutgers – 12:00 PM – CBS
#18 Oregon State at San Jose State – 3:30 PM – CBS
#5 LSU vs #8 Florida State (Orlando) – 7:30 PM – ABC
The 2021 offensive line sent Cade Mays to the NFL, but brought everyone else back. We thought if the Vols could just be even a little better here, it could make a huge difference in the program’s overall progress.
And they were far more than a little better in 2022.
With just 27 sacks allowed on 438 passing plays from Hendon Hooker and Joe Milton, last year Tennessee had a sack rate of 6.16%. That number was in line with what Tennessee’s offense was able to accomplish in keeping Josh Dobbs upright in 2015 and 2016. And it helped produce one of the best offenses in school history in 2022.
Outside of the tempo-infused stats, last year the thing Tennessee was statistically worst at was allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete a high percentage of their passes. Opponents hit on 62.6% of their throws last season, 97th nationally. Here again, so much overall progress has been made at Tennessee, you don’t have to go back very far to find something worse: the 2020 team allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 68.2% of their passes, and the 2018 team was at 63.0%.
We looked at this two off-seasons ago, when it represented the most statistical progress the 2021 team could make. The national average in completion percentage has leveled off in the 61% range the last three seasons, still up from what we saw in college football in 2013-17. Top 10 teams in this department now complete around two-thirds of their passes.
Using that as a benchmark, here’s every Power 5 quarterback to complete 66.7+% of their passes with at least 20 completions against Tennessee in the post-Fulmer era:
Year
QB
Team
PCT
YPA
2022
Jayden Daniels
LSU
71.1%
6.7
2022
Bryce Young
Alabama
67.3%
8.8
2022
Spencer Rattler
South Carolina
81.1%
11.8
2021
Kenny Pickett
Pittsburgh
66.7%
7.9
2021
Emory Jones
Florida
77.8%
7.7
2021
Bryce Young
Alabama
72.1%
8.6
2020
Mac Jones
Alabama
80.6%
12.5
2020
Kyle Trask
Florida
71.4%
8.8
2020
Kellen Mond
Texas A&M
81.3%
8.8
2019
Kyle Trask
Florida
71.4%
10.5
2019
Jake Fromm
Georgia
82.8%
9.9
2018
Will Grier
West Virginia
73.5%
12.6
2018
Drew Lock
Missouri
70.0%
8.6
2018
Kyle Shurmur
Vanderbilt
88.6%
10.5
2017
Jalen Hurts
Alabama
66.7%
10.1
2016
Jarod Evans
Virginia Tech
71.4%
7.6
2015
Jake Coker
Alabama
77.8%
9.1
2013
Marcus Mariota
Oregon
69.7%
13.8
2013
A. Carta-Samuels
Vanderbilt
77.8%
6.7
2012
Aaron Murray
Georgia
76.9%
11
2012
Connor Shaw
South Carolina
68.8%
11.1
2010
Mike Hartline
Kentucky
70.5%
6.2
You can see how this played out three different ways for Tennessee’s defense in 2022. At LSU, Jayden Daniels completed 32 of 45 passes, but the Vols kept everything in front of them as their lead swelled. With Alabama, the Vols went shootout mode (against the eventual number one overall pick) and came out on top. And of course, at South Carolina, it went wrong on both sides of the ball.
One big difference here: the Vols sacked Jayden Daniels five times. They only got Bryce Young once, Spencer Rattler once. Of the 22 quarterbacks on the above list, how many got sacked more than twice?
2022 Jayden Daniels at LSU: 5 sacks
2018 Kyle Shurmur vs Vanderbilt: 3 sacks
2016 Jerod Evans vs Virginia Tech: 3 sacks
2015 Jake Coker at Alabama: 5 sacks
That’s a pair of comfortable wins in huge games, and as close at Tennessee came to the Crimson Tide in 15 years (plus the weirdness of the season-ending loss to Vanderbilt in 2018). Even as college football grows in passing efficiency and the Vols continue to face elite SEC quarterbacks, getting to the passer can make an enormous difference here.
In that regard, the Vols weren’t bad at all last year: 31 sacks, 42nd nationally. Tennessee dropped quarterbacks from Pittsburgh, LSU, Kentucky, and Clemson at least four times each, making a big difference in each of those ranked wins.
Here’s the opportunity: Byron Young had seven of the 16 sacks in those four wins (talk about bigtime players in bigtime games: that means every one of his sacks came in those four games last year).
Who steps up next?
In the midst of all these conversations that come with the 11-win territory – can the next QB shine as bright as the last QB, if so who’s catching all those touchdowns this time, etc. – don’t miss the few but meaningful ways this team could make progress over last season. If Tennessee is just one step better here, makes life just a little less comfortable for opposing quarterbacks (and/or the secondary makes life just a little less comfortable for receivers), Tennessee’s defense can make an significant difference in the ultimate outcome for the 2023 Vols.
How to make progress over last season is a beautifully short list.
Finding that progress anyway would be even sweeter.
