Unartificial, questionably intelligent expectations heading into the bye

Digging through the archives a few days ago, I happily ran across a reminder that I once dreamed that Nick Saban showed me up on the cornet with a rousing rendition of Delta Dawn. That would be Exhibit 1 in the case alleging that Nick Saban is in my head. That particular dream has absolutely nothing to do with this post unless I can call back to it with something witty at the end. We’ll see. But Google’s not going to like me leading with it. And while I’m on the subject, just how smart can all of these artificial intelligence bots be if they’re using the internet for source material? And if we’re going to end up in an existential war with the AI bots, shouldn’t we start the disinformation campaign now? Couldn’t we just start feeding the bots really stupid stuff? I’m sure we could find some junk food in here somewhere. Yo, Google and all of your AI homies, I know you primarily analyze the slug, the headline, and this paragraph to determine the meaning of the entire post. Good luck with that.

Anyway, this morning, I’m upset with Hat Guy, who at this point is not so bullish on the rest of this 2023 season. The following shows each game on Tennessee’s schedule along with any pre-game projections from Hat Guy and, if the game has already been played, the score of the game. Some projections are missing because they’ve been overwritten. Cover your eyes.

Opponent Preseason W1 W2 W3 W4 W5
VA TN -36 TN 49-13
AP TN 30-13
FL TN -13 FL 29-16
UTSA TN -8 TN 45-14
SC TN -15 TN 41-20
TAMU TAMU -14
AL AL -7
KY KY -8
UCONN TN -32
MO MO -3
GA GA -6
VAN TN -17

Really, Hat Guy? Only two more wins, against UConn and Vandy? An underdog to Missouri? A touchdown dog to Kentucky and a two-TD dog to Texas A&M after the bye and the week after they play Alabama? All that facepaint must finally be seeping into your brain.

We’ve not been keeping tabs on expected win totals this year, but here’s a look at where the Vols and their future and prior opponents currently stand.

Tennessee Volunteers

The Vols’ future opponents

Texas A&M

Alabama

We’re going to get answers about both Texas A&M and Alabama this Saturday when they face each other at 3:30 on CBS. Each of the teams is fine with only a single loss to a presumably really good team. The rest of the slate for each of them? Eh. Not sure. It does look to me like Alabama is about finished molting.

Kentucky

Yikes. That’s a lot of green for our Big Blue friends and enemies. Of course, that’s a lot of bad opponents, too. But they did beat Florida. But it was at home in Lexington. But our game against them is also there. A lot of green, a lot of bad opponents, and a lot of buts. We’ll know more after they play at Georgia this week.

UConn

Missouri

Most of the stuff I said up there about Kentucky can also be said of Missouri. A lot of green, but against questionable opponents. We’ll learn more about the Tigers native to Missouri this week when they host the Tigers that apparently prowl the Louisiana bayous.

Georgia

I’m looking at that South Carolina comp like a cat pretending to ignore a new toy, wondering whether to give in to my desire to trust it.

Vanderbilt

Oof.

The Vols’ past opponents

Virginia

Also oof.

Austin Peay

I know the Governors are an FCS team, but they know how to score points and play defense. Go Govs.

Florida

No like.

UTSA

South Carolina

Who knows how good these guys are or aren’t. Three losses, but to (hopefully!) good teams.

I wonder if they know Delta Dawn.

No, that didn’t work. But it was stupid, so maybe I’ve done my part in the coming war against the machines.

Tennessee 41 South Carolina 20: Treat

When you have this offense – especially when it just featured Hendon Hooker and Jalin Hyatt, etc. – it’s easy to default the initial credit to the passing game. And even with a pair of interceptions and a heartbreaking injury, I thought Tennessee was good through the air Saturday night. Squirrel White had nine for 104, and the backs and tight ends combined for seven receptions. Variety may become the spice of life there as the Vols adjust to playing without Bru McCoy.

But in two other areas of the game, Tennessee redeemed its recent past and solidified a bright present.

Last year, South Carolina scored nine touchdowns in essentially ten drives. They punted once.

In Knoxville on Saturday night, South Carolina scored two touchdowns via one big play and one short field. Their other drives ended with:

  • Punt
  • Field Goal
  • Turnover on Downs (4th & 2 at the UT 32)
  • Punt (Three & Out)
  • Punt (Three & Out)
  • Punt (Three & Out)
  • Turnover on Downs (4th & 1 at the UT 35)
  • Punt (Three & Out)
  • Field Goal
  • Turnover on Downs

Spencer Rattler finished with 169 yards, his fewest since before the Tennessee game last season. And his 4.8 yards per attempt were the fewest of his entire career. It was an incredible response from Tennessee’s defense.

Meanwhile, Tennessee’s offense ran the ball 40 times for 238 yards, right at six yards per carry. That average is the most for the Vols against power five opponents not named Vanderbilt or Missouri in the last three seasons. On the year, Tennessee averages 6.18 yards per carry, sixth nationally.

The challenge will certainly increase after the bye week, when Tennessee will face five Top 20 defenses via SP+, the best of which currently belongs to Texas A&M at #4. But through the first five games of this season, Tennessee’s backs are putting themselves in great company around here:

Tennessee Yards Per Carry Leaders, Post-Fulmer Era (100+ carries)

  1. Jaylen Wright 2023, 7.13 (current)
  2. Dylan Sampson 2023, 6.89 (current)
  3. Alvin Kamara 2015, 6.52
  4. Jaylen Wright 2022, 5.99
  5. Jabari Small 2023, 5.98 (current)
  6. Alvin Kamara 2016, 5.79
  7. Jabari Small 2021, 5.66
  8. Ty Chandler 2018, 5.48
  9. Marlin Lane 2012, 5.48
  10. Eric Gray 2019, 5.34

With Kamara the only back around here to average more than six yards per carry for an entire season in the last 15+ years, you can see the company this trio is currently keeping, as well as the value of the ground game in Heupel’s offense. It’s one of the most intriguing questions going forward: what’s the balance of this stable of backs behind Tennessee’s full-strength offensive line vs the quality of defense they’re getting ready to face?

That performance against South Carolina set the table for good-to-great. Credit this group for not only putting last year’s questions to rest, but establishing new answers for what this offense can be this season. Big win last week, big football on the horizon. Welcome to October.

Go Vols.

Tennessee-South Carolina, according to GRT’s Hat Guy

Tennessee opened as an 11.5-point favorite over the Gamecocks this week. The line has now moved to 12.5, with the over/under at 62.5. Hat Guy has opinions. These are those.

From Tennessee’s perspective

South Carolina’s defense is allowing an average of 26.5 points per game. The best scoring defense comps are:

  • UTSA 28
  • Virginia 37.8

Tennessee’s points against those teams:

  • UTSA 45
  • Virginia 49

Tennessee’s offensive premium/discount: 143%

South Carolina’s offense is scoring an average of 28.8 points per game. The best scoring offense comps are:

  • Florida 27.8
  • Virginia 20.8

Tennessee’s defensive performance against those teams:

  • Florida 29
  • Virginia 13

Tennessee’s defensive premium/discount: 87%

Estimated score: Tennessee 37.9, South Carolina 25

From South Carolina’s perspective

Tennessee’s defense is allowing an average of 17.3 points per game. The best scoring defense comps are:

  • North Carolina 22
  • Georgia 11.3

South Carolina’s points against those teams:

  • North Carolina 17
  • Georgia 14

South Carolina’s offensive premium/discount: 93%

Tennessee’s offense is scoring an average of 35 points per game. The best scoring offense comps are:

  • North Carolina 35.8
  • Mississippi State 30.8

South Carolina’s defensive performance against those teams:

  • North Carolina 31
  • Mississippi State 30

South Carolina’s defensive premium/discount: 92%

Estimated score: South Carolina 16, Tennessee 32.2

SPM Final Estimates

Throw it in, cook it up, take a peek:

HomeHome PointsAwayAway PointsFavoriteSpreadHome RYAway RYHome PYAway PY
Tennessee35.1South Carolina20.5Tennessee-14.6217.763.4310.1225.4

Hat Guy likes the Vols to cover (-14.6) and disagrees with the Vegas opening spread by 3.1 points.

Guts and Eyeballs

How much is Neyland at night worth? Can the Tennessee defense rattle Rattler and keep him from getting into a hope-destroying groove? Legit questions, but without answers. The unknowns are real but cannot be quantified, so the numbers alone are the safest bet.

Other predictions from other systems

With an over/under of 62.5 and an opening line of Vols -11.5, Vegas is suggesting a score of something like Tennessee 37, South Carolina 25.

Bill Connelly’s SP+ likes Tennessee 37-23 (Vols -14).

Bottom line

  • Vegas: Tennessee -11.5 (~Tennessee 37, South Carolina 25)
  • Hat Guy: Tennessee -14.6 (Tennessee 35.1, South Carolina 20.5) (covers)
  • SP+: Tennessee -14 (Tennessee 37, South Carolina 23) (covers)
  • Hat Guy, with organic Guts and Eyeballs: same as Hat Guy

What do y’all think?

In The Name of Good Surprises

The question of Josh Heupel’s best win isn’t up for debate; the Alabama game last year is Tennessee’s best win ever if you’re under the age of 25 or so. But one of the best things about being back in the national conversation is the multitude of good wins – so many, in fact, that some of them get sent to the backs of our minds in hopes of making room for the next one.

Two years ago this weekend, Tennessee went to Missouri after a “why didn’t we play better” loss in Gainesville. It was the floodgates, rapidly: the Vols won 62-24 and certainly got our attention. But we’d seen so much for so long, etc., no one was signaling that the Vols were back by beating Missouri.

In fact, the language we used in previewing South Carolina the following week was, “It’s a big game in the way it enables other games to be big.” It’s the kind of language that found its way to this game after Steve Spurrier arrived in Columbia: while never our biggest rival, the Gamecocks became enablers on the path from good to great. Beat Carolina, and you’re still alive in the division. Beat Carolina, and your season is still on track. Or in this case, beat Carolina, and you’re 4-1 heading into a bye week.

Two years ago, Tennessee did just that, in glorious fashion both literally and figuratively depending on your love for dark mode. Noon kick, no worries: the Vols blasted out of the gates 35-0 en route to a 45-20 victory. It was an amazing, “is this really happening?!” performance, one that helped pave the way for all the great things Heupel’s teams have done.

The question of Heupel’s hardest loss is, of course, also an easy answer. A year after beating South Carolina by 25 in a game we led by 35, South Carolina beat us by 25 in a game they led by 32.

This kind of swing – one team wins by 20+, then the other team wins by 20+ the next year – is unheard of at Tennessee since expansion in seasons that didn’t involve coaching volatility. It’s only happened three times among UT’s annual rivalries in that span that I can find:

  • In 2009, Lane Kiffin’s Vols beat Georgia by 29. In Derek Dooley’s first season the following year, the Dawgs won by 31 in Athens.
  • In 2016, Tennessee ran way from Missouri in the second half in a 63-37 offensive explosion. The following year, Missouri blasted Tennessee 50-17; Butch Jones was let go the following day. Heupel was the offensive coordinator for both Missouri teams.
  • 2021 & 2022 South Carolina

Whatever your consideration of South Carolina as a rival, the annual part is going away. These two teams won’t meet in 2024, a first since 1991. In the post-Fulmer era, Tennessee and South Carolina have split the last 14 meetings.

And in preseason, if I asked you which win you’d absolutely want the most? This game would’ve at least made the short list.

There’s an air of unpredictability about, which is in part due to how bananas good Tennessee’s offense was last year in ways that are difficult to duplicate. They still scored 38 points on 507 total yards in this one last year. What also gets sent to the backs of our brains are the ways it didn’t always come so easily, even for Heupel’s teams here, and the Vols still dominated. The second half of that 2021 South Carolina game opened with Tennessee punting four times in a row, with two three-and-outs. Carolina trimmed the gap to 38-20 and had the ball with ten minutes left. The Vols got the stop, then added on for the final margin.

It’s never perfect, but often good. How good can the Vols be offensively Saturday night? How less-than can they make Spencer Rattler, who threw seven incompletions in this game last year and has thrown just 13 this season when not playing Georgia?

That’s the fun of all of this, of course. It’s a big game. And it creates the opportunity for others to be big. I’ll miss this fun little rivalry with its short commute. It’s given us Steve Tanneyhill and Tee Martin and Lou Holtz. It’s handed us some of our hardest losses. And it’s created opportunities for new life, from Michael Palardy to Josh Dobbs to black jerseys.

I’m very excited to see what this chapter holds on Saturday night.

Go Vols.

How to watch the Vols like a pro: GRT’s Week 5 college football TV schedule

It’s Neyland at Night this Saturday at 7:30 p.m. as the Vols host the South Carolina Gamecocks on the SEC Network. The only serious competition for your attention is a Top 25 matchup between No. 11 Notre Dame and No. 17 (?!) Duke on ABC at the same time and No. 12 Alabama at Mississippi State on ESPN at 9:00 p.m.

On Friday night, there’s a Top 25 game between No. 10 Utah and No. 19 Oregon State that could be a nice appetizer for Gameday. Gameday then kicks off Saturday at noon with two games featuring future Vols opponents Texas A&M (vs Arkansas) and Kentucky (vs former opponent Florida.)

Saturday’s afternoon slate includes games between Georgia and Auburn (root for Auburn in this one in case the Vols lose another game between now and the day Georgia comes to Knoxville,) a Top 25 matchup between No. 3 Texas and No. 24 Kansas (!), future opponents Missouri and Vanderbilt in action against each other at 4:00, and No. 13 LSU at No. 20 Ole Miss at 6:00.

The No. 21 Vols have the prime time slot mostly to themselves at 7:30 on the SEC Network, with the aforementioned exceptions of Notre Dame/Duke and Alabama/Mississippi State.

The full GRT college football TV schedule for the week is at the bottom of the post, but first is our suggested viewing schedule curated just for Vols fans.

Friday, September 29, 2023

DateAwayHomeTimeTV
9/29/23 10 Utah 19 Oregon State 9:00 PM FS1

Gameday, September 30, 2023

Away Home Time TV
NOON
22 Florida Kentucky 12:00 PM ESPN
Texas A&M Arkansas 12:00 PM SECN
AFTERNOON
Georgia Auburn 3:30 PM CBS
24 Kansas 3 Texas 3:30 PM ABC
Missouri Vanderbilt 4:00 PM SECN
13 LSU 20 Mississippi 6:00 PM ESPN
EVENING
South Carolina 21 Tennessee 7:30 PM SECN

Full searchable college football TV schedule

Here’s the entire searchable and sortable college football TV schedule for this week:

DateAwayHomeTimeTV
9/28/23 Temple Tulsa 7:30 PM ESPN
9/28/23 Middle Tennessee Western Kentucky 7:30 PM CBSSN
9/29/23 Louisiana Tech UTEP 9:00 PM CBSSN
9/29/23 Utah Oregon State 9:00 PM FS1
9/29/23 Louisville North Carolina State 7:00 PM ESPN
9/29/23 Cincinnati BYU 10:15 PM ESPN
9/30/23 Illinois Purdue 3:30 PM Peacock
9/30/23 Arkansas State Massachusetts 3:30 PM ESPN+
9/30/23 Ball State Western Michigan 3:30 PM ESPN+
9/30/23 Buffalo Akron 12:00 PM ESPN+
9/30/23 Boise State Memphis 4:00 PM ESPN2
9/30/23 LSU Mississippi 6:00 PM ESPN
9/30/23 Pittsburgh Virginia Tech 8:00 PM ACCN
9/30/23 Florida Kentucky 12:00 PM ESPN
9/30/23 Virginia Boston College 2:00 PM CW NETWORK
9/30/23 East Carolina Rice 7:00 PM ESPN+
9/30/23 Troy Georgia State 7:00 PM ESPN+
9/30/23 South Florida Navy 3:30 PM CBSSN
9/30/23 South Alabama James Madison 12:00 PM ESPNU
9/30/23 Utah State Connecticut 12:00 PM CBSSN
9/30/23 Notre Dame Duke 7:30 PM ABC
9/30/23 Texas A&M Arkansas 12:00 PM SECN
9/30/23 Eastern Michigan Central Michigan 1:30 PM ESPN+
9/30/23 Coastal Carolina Georgia Southern 7:00 PM NFL NET
9/30/23 Clemson Syracuse 12:00 PM ABC
9/30/23 Texas State Southern Mississippi 7:00 PM ESPN+
9/30/23 Houston Texas Tech 3:30 PM
9/30/23 West Virginia TCU 8:00 PM ESPN2
9/30/23 Louisiana-Lafayette Minnesota 12:00 PM BTN
9/30/23 Hawai'i UNLV 4:00 PM
9/30/23 San Diego State Air Force 8:00 PM CBSSN
9/30/23 Baylor UCF 3:30 PM
9/30/23 South Carolina Tennessee 7:30 PM SECN
9/30/23 Michigan State Iowa 7:30 PM NBCPeacock
9/30/23 Arizona State California 3:00 PM PAC12
9/30/23 Missouri Vanderbilt 4:00 PM SECN
9/30/23 Old Dominion Marshall 3:30 PM ESPN+
9/30/23 Appalachian State Louisiana-Monroe 8:00 PM ESPN+
9/30/23 Northern Illinois Toledo 3:30 PM ESPNU
9/30/23 New Mexico Wyoming 4:00 PM
9/30/23 Indiana Maryland 3:30 PM BTN
9/30/23 Alabama Mississippi State 9:00 PM ESPN
9/30/23 Miami (Ohio) Kent State 2:30 PM ESPN+
9/30/23 Georgia Auburn 3:30 PM CBS
9/30/23 Kansas Texas 3:30 PM ABC
9/30/23 Michigan Nebraska 3:30 PM FOX
9/30/23 Washington Arizona 10:00 PM PAC12
9/30/23 Bowling Green Georgia Tech 3:30 PM ACCN
9/30/23 Iowa State Oklahoma 7:00 PM FS1
9/30/23 UAB Tulane 12:00 PM ESPN2
9/30/23 Charlotte SMU 7:30 PM ESPNU
9/30/23 USC Colorado 12:00 PM FOX
9/30/23 Nevada Fresno State 10:30 PM FS1
9/30/23 Penn State Northwestern 12:00 PM BTN
9/30/23 Oregon Stanford 6:30 PM PAC12

Tennessee Vols statistical ranking trends – After UTSA

Here’s our color-coded look at the Vols’ national rankings in each of the official NCAA stat categories as of the win over UTSA. There was, of course, some improvement in the numbers as a result of the victory, as the run game is about as good as it’s ever been under Heupel and the defense is elite at creating negative plays. There is still much room to improve, though, especially in the passing game on offense, penalties, and turnover margin.

Offense

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.

As expected after a relatively easy game, the offensive numbers improved a bit. The rushing offense is now not only better than last year’s season-long ranking of 26, but better than the prior year’s ranking of 11 as well. Also in the green are interceptions thrown and TFLs allowed. Total offense and scoring offense both improved significantly but still have some ground to make up.

In the red are most passing game numbers and down efficiencies.

Defense

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.

This 2023 defense makes its living in the opponent’s backfield. Overall, the unit is much-improved from a yards-allowed perspective and a bit better than last year on the scoreboard. They’re much better at defending the pass and on first down. They’re not bad at anything except maybe intercepting the ball, and they can still improve against the run and on third down.

Special Teams

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.

Not much to note here. Net punting has improved, but is still a long way from green.

Turnovers and Penalties

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.

Penalties improved after UTSA, which was much-needed for a team that has not yet found the Heuper-drive button. They could also dial up the turnover margin.

Tennessee-UTSA, according to GRT’s Hat Guy

Tennessee opened as a 20-point favorite over the Roadrunners this week, and as of the time I write this, it is 21.5. What does Hat Guy have to say about that?

The Data

  • Tennessee’s Scoring Offense this year: 31.6667
  • Tennessee’s Rushing Offense this year: 205.0000
  • Tennessee’s Passing Offense this year: 242.3333
  • UTSA’s Scoring Offense this year: 21.0000
  • UTSA’s Rushing Offense this year: 162.3333
  • UTSA’s Passing Offense this year: 220.6667
  • Tennessee’s Scoring Defense this year: 18.3333
  • Tennessee’s Rushing Defense this year: 119
  • Tennessee’s Passing Defense this year: 177.3
  • UTSA’s Scoring Defense this year: 22.3333
  • UTSA’s Rushing Defense this year: 128.7
  • UTSA’s Passing Defense this year: 210.7

From the perspective of Tennessee

Vols’ offense

The UTSA scoring defense of 22.3333 is most similar to the following prior FBS Tennessee opponents:

  • Florida 15.7
  • Virginia 42.3

The Vols scored 16 points against Florida and 49 against Virginia, 112% of what those teams usually give up. Estimated points for Tennessee against UTSA: 25

The UTSA rushing defense of 128.7 is most similar to the following prior FBS Tennessee opponents:

  • Florida 83.7
  • Virginia 191

Tennessee ran for 100 against the Gators and 287 against the Cavaliers, 141% of what they usually allow. Estimated rushing yards for Tennessee against UTSA: 181.5

The UTSA passing defense of 210.7 is most similar to the following prior FBS Tennessee opponents:

  • Florida 172.7
  • Virginia 260.7

Tennessee got 287 through the air against Florida and 212 against Virginia, 115% of their usual. Estimated passing yards for Tennessee against UTSA: 242.3

Vols defense

The UTSA scoring offense of 21 is most similar to the following prior FBS Tennessee opponents:

  • Virginia 20.7
  • Florida 29.7

Tennessee gave up 13 to Virginia and 29 to Florida, 83% when combined. Estimated points for UTSA against Tennessee: 17.4

The UTSA rushing offense of 162.33 is most similar to the following prior FBS Tennessee opponents:

  • Florida 174.3
  • Virginia 68

The Vols gave up 183 on the ground to Florida and 95 to Virginia, 115% of their usual. Estimated rushing yards for UTSA against Tennessee: 186.7

The UTSA passing offense of 220.67 is most similar to the following prior FBS Tennessee opponents:

  • Florida 244
  • Virginia 248.7

Florida passed for 166 against the Vols, and Virginia passed for 106, 55%. Estimated passing yards for UTSA against Tennessee: 121.4

Estimated score: Tennessee 25, UTSA 17.4
Estimated rushing yards: Tennessee 181.5, UTSA 186.7
Estimated passing yards: Tennessee 242.3, UTSA 121.4

From the perspective of UTSA

UTSA offense

The Tennessee scoring defense of 18.3333 is most similar to the following prior UTSA opponent(s) (FBS only):

  • Army 15.3
  • Texas State 28.3

Against Army, UTSA scored 29 points against Army, 20 against Texas State, 112%. Estimated points for UTSA against Tennessee: 20.5

The Tennessee rushing defense of 119 is most similar to the following prior UTSA opponent(s) (FBS only):

  • Army 117.3
  • Texas State 128

UTSA ran for 121 yards against Army and 158 against Texas State, 114%. Estimated rushing yards for UTSA against Tennessee: 135.7

The Tennessee passing defense of 177.3 is most similar to the following prior UTSA opponent(s) (FBS only):

  • Army 175
  • Texas State 304

UTSA passed for 239 yards against Army and 214 against Texas State, 95%. Estimated passing yards for UTSA against Tennessee: 168.4

UTSA defense

The Tennessee scoring offense of 31.6667 is most similar to the following prior UTSA opponent(s) (FBS only):

  • Army 35.7
  • Houston 23.7

Against Army, UTSA allowed 37 points. They gave up 17 to Houston. That’s 91%. Estimated points for Tennessee against UTSA: 28.8.

The Tennessee rushing offense of 205.0000 is most similar to the following prior UTSA opponent(s) (FBS only):

  • Texas State 191
  • Army 235.7

Against Texas State, UTSA allowed 31 rushing yards. Against Army, they allowed 254 rushing yards. That’s 67%. Estimated rushing yards for Tennessee against UTSA: 137.4

The Tennessee passing offense of 242.3333 is most similar to the following prior UTSA opponent(s) (FBS only):

  • Houston 239.3
  • Texas State 264.7

Against Houston, UTSA allowed 233 passing yards to Houston and 211 to Texas State, 88%. Estimated passing yards for Tennessee against UTSA: 213.3.

Estimated score: UTSA 20.5, Tennessee 28.8
Estimated rushing yards: UTSA 135.7, Tennessee 137.4
Estimated passing yards: UTSA 168.4, Tennessee 213.3

Combined Estimated Score

SPM Final Estimates

Throw it in, cook it up, take a peek:

HomeHome PointsAwayAway PointsFavoriteSpreadHome RYAway RYHome PYAway PY
Tennessee26.9UTSA19Tennessee-7.9159.5161.2227.8144.9

Hat Guy disagrees with the Vegas opening spread by 12.1 points.

Guts and Eyeballs

You just keep thinking that the Vols are going to get their act together and have an offensive explosion. But we haven’t seen it yet, so the eyeballs and the guts don’t agree. Giving the guts a few and going with Tennessee 35, UTSA 17 (Vols -18).

Other predictions from other systems

As I said before, the Vols opened as 20-point favorites and are currently 21.5-point favorites. With an over/under of 56 (opening), that translates to something like Tennessee 38, UTSA 18.

Bill Connelly’s SP+ likes Tennessee 39-19 (Vols -20).

Bottom line

Hat Guy likes the Vols, but not the spread this week.

  • Vegas: Tennessee, -20 (~Tennessee 40, UTSA 19)
  • SP+: Tennessee -20 (Tennessee 39, UTSA 19) (push)
  • Hat Guy: Tennessee -8 (Tennessee 27, UTSA 19) (does not cover)
  • Guts and Eyeballs: Tennessee -18 (Tennessee 35, UTSA 17) (does not cover)

What do y’all think?

How to watch the Vols like a pro: GRT’s Week 4 college football TV schedule

The Vols host the UTSA Roadrunners on the SEC Network this Saturday at 4:00 p.m. That game is up against the CBS Game of the Week, No. 15 Ole Miss at No. 13 Alabama.

Kicking things off Saturday are a trio of games on the ESPN family of networks, including No. 4 Florida State traveling to Clemson at noon on ABC and a couple of SEC matchups of future Vols foes also at noon.

The evening features a slate of Top 25 matchups plus a No. 3 Texas team heading to Baylor. The biggest game of the evening appears to be No. 6 Ohio State at No. 9 Notre Dame at 7:30 on NBC.

The full GRT college football TV schedule for the week is at the bottom of the post, but first is our suggested viewing schedule curated just for Vols fans.

Gameday, September 23, 2023

Away Home Time TV
NOON
22 Florida Kentucky 12:00 PM ESPN
Texas A&M Arkansas 12:00 PM SECN
AFTERNOON
Georgia Auburn 3:30 PM CBS
Kansas Texas 3:30 PM ABC
Missouri Vanderbilt 4:00 PM SECN
13 LSU 20 Mississippi 6:00 PM ESPN
EVENING
South Carolina 21 Tennessee 7:30 PM SECN

Full searchable college football TV schedule

Here’s the entire searchable and sortable college football TV schedule for this week:

DateAwayHomeTimeTV
9/21/23 Georgia State Coastal Carolina 7:30 PM ESPN
9/22/23 Wisconsin Purdue 7:00 PM FS1
9/22/23 North Carolina State Virginia 7:30 PM ESPN
9/22/23 Boise State San Diego State 10:30 PM CBSSN
9/22/23 Air Force San Jose State 10:30 PM FS1
9/23/23 Rutgers Michigan 12:00 PM BTN
9/23/23 Florida State Clemson 12:00 PM ABC
9/23/23 Oklahoma Cincinnati 12:00 PM FOX
9/23/23 Army Syracuse 12:00 PM ACCN
9/23/23 Auburn Texas A&M 12:00 PM ESPN
9/23/23 Western Kentucky Troy 12:00 PM ESPNU
9/23/23 Kentucky Vanderbilt 12:00 PM SECN
9/23/23 Virginia Tech Marshall 12:00 PM ESPN2
9/23/23 SMU TCU 12:00 PM FS1
9/23/23 Tulsa Northern Illinois 12:00 PM CBSSN
9/23/23 Western Michigan Toledo 1:30 PM ESPN+
9/23/23 Georgia Southern Ball State 2:00 PM ESPN+
9/23/23 Colorado Oregon 3:30 PM ABC
9/23/23 UCLA Utah 3:30 PM FOX
9/23/23 Mississippi Alabama 3:30 PM CBS
9/23/23 Duke Connecticut 3:30 PM CBSSN
9/23/23 Miami (Florida) Temple 3:30 PM ESPN2
9/23/23 Florida Atlantic Illinois 3:30 PM BTN
9/23/23 Maryland Michigan State 3:30 PM NBC
9/23/23 Louisiana Tech Nebraska 3:30 PM BTN
9/23/23 Boston College Louisville 3:30 PM ACCN
9/23/23 BYU Kansas 3:30 PM ESPN
9/23/23 Texas Tech West Virginia 3:30 PM BIG12|ESPN+
9/23/23 New Mexico Massachusetts 3:30 PM ESPN+
9/23/23 Texas A&M-Commerce Old Dominion 3:30 PM ESPN+
9/23/23 Ohio Bowling Green 3:30 PM ESPN+
9/23/23 Delaware State Miami (Ohio) 3:30 PM ESPN+
9/23/23 UTSA Tennessee 4:00 PM SECN
9/23/23 Oklahoma State Iowa State 4:00 PM FS1
9/23/23 Rice South Florida 4:00 PM ESPNU
9/23/23 Eastern Michigan Jacksonville State 5:00 PM ESPN+
9/23/23 Central Michigan South Alabama 5:00 PM ESPN+
9/23/23 Gardner-Webb East Carolina 6:00 PM ESPN+
9/23/23 Liberty Florida International 6:30 PM ESPN+
9/23/23 Georgia Tech Wake Forest 6:30 PM CW NETWORK
9/23/23 Arkansas LSU 7:00 PM ESPN
9/23/23 Oregon State Washington State 7:00 PM FOX
9/23/23 Charlotte Florida 7:00 PM ESPN+|SECN+
9/23/23 Sam Houston State Houston 7:00 PM BIG12|ESPN+
9/23/23 Colorado State Middle Tennessee 7:00 PM ESPN+
9/23/23 Arizona Stanford 7:00 PM PAC12
9/23/23 Nicholls State Tulane 7:00 PM ESPN+
9/23/23 Appalachian State Wyoming 7:00 PM CBSSN
9/23/23 Southern Mississippi Arkansas State 7:00 PM ESPN+
9/23/23 Nevada Texas State 7:00 PM ESPN+
9/23/23 UAB Georgia 7:30 PM ESPN2
9/23/23 Texas Baylor 7:30 PM ABC
9/23/23 Ohio State Notre Dame 7:30 PM NBC
9/23/23 Iowa Penn State 7:30 PM CBS
9/23/23 Akron Indiana 7:30 PM BTN
9/23/23 Memphis Missouri 7:30 PM ESPNU
9/23/23 Minnesota Northwestern 7:30 PM BTN
9/23/23 Mississippi State South Carolina 7:30 PM SECN
9/23/23 Buffalo Louisiana-Lafayette 7:30 PM ESPN+
9/23/23 North Carolina Pittsburgh 8:00 PM ACCN
9/23/23 UCF Kansas State 8:00 PM FS1
9/23/23 James Madison Utah State 8:00 PM
9/23/23 UNLV UTEP 9:00 PM ESPN+
9/23/23 USC Arizona State 9:30 PM FOX
9/23/23 California Washington 10:30 PM ESPN
9/23/23 Kent State Fresno State 10:30 PM CBSSN
9/23/23 New Mexico State Hawai'i 11:59 PM

Tennessee Vols statistical ranking trends – Comparing Heupel’s first two years to now

The first couple of weeks of a college football season, you’re pretty much just guessing what’s in the box. You don’t begin to actually know until you have two or three games in the books. Even then, the picture is a bit murky and continues to change as the season progresses.

So what do we actually have, right now, compared to the last couple of years? I wanted to know, so I dusted off our old color-coded look at the Vols’ national rankings in each of the official NCAA stat categories.

Offense

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.

The run game on offense appears to be about the same as the season-long numbers from last year, but the passing game is waaaaay off and dragging down the overall offensive numbers. That doesn’t really tell us anything that our eyeballs haven’t. The odd thing, though, is that total passing yards isn’t that far off that of Heupel’s first season. And yet that 2021 team was still able to score points at Heupel’s usual clip. A slightly better run game, better efficiency on first and third downs, and a huge disparity in passing yards per completion seem to explain.

Defense

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Is the defense actually better? It looks like yeah, mostly. The pass defense was a glaring problem the last couple of years and was probably the offseason focus this summer. But so far, it looks like maybe we’ve robbed the run defense a bit to shore up the pass defense. It doesn’t appear to be a one-for-one trade, though, as the gains against the pass are greater than the losses against the run.

Special Teams

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.

The team has stepped backward on punt and kickoff return defense, and the punting game is, so far, no better than last year.

Turnovers and Penalties

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So this is interesting. Two seasons and three games in, it’s looking like Heupel’s teams are just generally terrible at penalties. I would not have guessed that of a team regularly trotting out one of the nation’s top offenses. Perhaps seeing a breakdown of offensive and defensive penalties would shed some light on that. But it’s both good news and bad news. Bad news, because you don’t want to hamstring yourself, especially in crucial games against good teams. Good news, because penalties don’t seem to be the main problem for this squad so far.

The team is suffering a bit forcing turnovers.

The Swamp Thing: Florida 29, Tennessee 16

I don’t know why I keep underestimating The Swamp. It seems like every couple of years I’m thinking (at some point, whether before, during, or just before I’m reminded yet again that it doesn’t always matter) that Tennessee is the better team and it should follow that the Vols should win. I have a hazy recollection of bad things happening against Florida, especially in their habitat, but a curse? Eh, not really a thing. Like Bigfoot, Yeti, Loch Ness, the Bermuda Triangle. Make believe.

And then it makes me believe it again. Giving up a late 63-yard touchdown on 4th and 14 for the go-ahead score? Allowing a receiver to get behind a prevent defense in the end zone on the last play of the game to win? Call it self-fulfilling prophecy. Call it The Weirdness. Call it simple home field advantage. Call it whatever you like, but next time, Joel, remember that it’s real. (Side note: I went looking for the link where I called this phenomenon The Weirdness and got lost in a rabbit hole on Podcast Episode 155 where Will and I go on a five-minute tangent about donuts at around the 5:00 mark. And Will didn’t say that word, by the way. The translation bot disparages our beloved pastor.)

Anyway, the 2023 edition of The Swamp Thing features a Vols squad attempting to play with one arm (and sometimes two) tied behind their metaphorical (and sometimes not metaphorical!) backs.

After a beautiful 71-yard, six-play touchdown drive to begin the game, Tennessee’s offense gnawed off an arm with a series of pre-snap penalties that killed three consecutive drives. Here’s the rap sheet:

  • Drive 2: False start on the second 1st and 10. Never recovered. Punt. Afterwards, the Gators ate 7.5 minutes of clock and scored a touchdown.
  • Drive 3: False start on the first play of the drive. Pressure (435 pounds of it!) on 2nd and 12 resulted in an interception, which was returned 39 yards. An unsportsmanlike conduct penalty at the end of the play moved the Gators to within 9 yards of the goal line. Touchdown, Gators.
  • Drive 4: Another false start, again on the very first play of the drive. Sack on 2nd and 12. Never recovered. Punt. Gators went 55 yards for another touchdown.

After the first, the Vols’ remaining drives ended in three punts and an interception. Three of those four drives were killed by pre-snap penalties that smelled distinctly of swamp water. Josh Heupel’s high-flying offense can score points in buckets when it gets ahead of the chains and can leverage momentum to reach cruising altitude. But when it gets off schedule, it has trouble just getting off the ground. It’s like the opening drive conceived a confidence like that of the Black Knight in Monty Python’s Holy Grail. I’M INVINCIBLE!

Let’s talk about that . . . tackle?

Speaking of the Black Knight, there was also a moment where the defense decided to play without any arms whatsoever:

Oh, boy. That is one of the most egregiously inept efforts at tackling that I have ever seen. Actually, it looks more like the dude just plain decided not to do it.

When my oldest daughter was super young (maybe 5?), we put her in a church soccer camp thing. I don’t know what we were thinking. At that age, she thought she was a horse. Or Simba from the Lion King, depending on the day.

If you’ve ever watched 5-year-olds on a soccer field, you know that it’s basically a herd of baby animals kicking each other. They have no understanding of spacing or passing or strategy. Their goal is simply to find the ball and kick it. The 5-stars at that age understand that they’re supposed to kick it in a certain direction, but that’s about as far as they get with strategy in that division.

But even that wasn’t in my daughter’s playbook. Her entire strategy consisted of just running after the herd. Man, she was good at it, too. She had a nose for the back of the pack, identifying it and seeking it out with an Olympic single-minded purposefulness. If at any point the tide shifted and she suddenly found herself next to the ball in the middle of a blender of shin-hacking appendages, she would instantly spin and sprint toward safety at the end of the line. If they were giving out nicknames, hers would have been “Caboose.”

Watching #5 on that play reminded me of watching my daughter on the soccer field trying to avoid actually playing soccer.

I love my daughter. It turns out, she’s just not cut out for soccer. She’s 27 now, and the good news is that she no longer thinks she’s a horse.

Anyway, I love these college football kids, too, almost as if they were my own. I know it’s not the usual way to root for a sports team, and I’m not judging anyone for doing it differently. But just from my own perspective as a father of three daughters (27, 21, and 12), I view these guys as people to love. I want to see them grow in maturity, strength of mind and character, and faith. I want them to learn discipline, to work hard, to trust teammates, to be a reliable brother and friend, to succeed and learn how to handle that success, and to learn how to deal with failure when it inevitably comes. When a kid has great success and earns the adoration of the masses, I hope the coaches keep him grounded. When a kid makes a mistake and is relentlessly reminded of it through every data feed on his phone, I hope that the coaching staff will balance out the good work of natural consequences with the right amount of constructive criticism spoken in love from people he actually knows and trusts.

There’s no getting around it. That was a terrible effort, and #5 is quickly developing a reputation for being an especially poor tackler (although I will point out that he was the team’s second-leading tackler Saturday night.) He’s certainly hearing about it now, both from his inner circle of coaches and teammates and from all corners of the internet, including this site.

I assume that his goal is to play in the NFL, and I am rooting for him to accomplish all that his heart desires and to grow in all situations, good and bad. I don’t know him, but if I did, I would give him a hug today. And I’d tell him to use his arms. And I would say it with a wink so that he knew that I was joking but also not joking. Joking, because this is football and it’s really not that important in the grand scheme of things. And not joking, because I am really rooting for him to achieve his goals.