Tennessee opened as an 11.5-point favorite over the Gamecocks this week. The line has now moved to 12.5, with the over/under at 62.5. Hat Guy has opinions. These are those.
From Tennessee’s perspective
South Carolina’s defense is allowing an average of 26.5 points per game. The best scoring defense comps are:
- UTSA 28
- Virginia 37.8
Tennessee’s points against those teams:
- UTSA 45
- Virginia 49
Tennessee’s offensive premium/discount: 143%
South Carolina’s offense is scoring an average of 28.8 points per game. The best scoring offense comps are:
- Florida 27.8
- Virginia 20.8
Tennessee’s defensive performance against those teams:
- Florida 29
- Virginia 13
Tennessee’s defensive premium/discount: 87%
Estimated score: Tennessee 37.9, South Carolina 25
From South Carolina’s perspective
Tennessee’s defense is allowing an average of 17.3 points per game. The best scoring defense comps are:
- North Carolina 22
- Georgia 11.3
South Carolina’s points against those teams:
- North Carolina 17
- Georgia 14
South Carolina’s offensive premium/discount: 93%
Tennessee’s offense is scoring an average of 35 points per game. The best scoring offense comps are:
- North Carolina 35.8
- Mississippi State 30.8
South Carolina’s defensive performance against those teams:
- North Carolina 31
- Mississippi State 30
South Carolina’s defensive premium/discount: 92%
Estimated score: South Carolina 16, Tennessee 32.2
SPM Final Estimates
Throw it in, cook it up, take a peek:
| Home | Home Points | Away | Away Points | Favorite | Spread | Home RY | Away RY | Home PY | Away PY |
| Tennessee | 35.1 | South Carolina | 20.5 | Tennessee | -14.6 | 217.7 | 63.4 | 310.1 | 225.4 |
Hat Guy likes the Vols to cover (-14.6) and disagrees with the Vegas opening spread by 3.1 points.
Guts and Eyeballs
How much is Neyland at night worth? Can the Tennessee defense rattle Rattler and keep him from getting into a hope-destroying groove? Legit questions, but without answers. The unknowns are real but cannot be quantified, so the numbers alone are the safest bet.
Other predictions from other systems
With an over/under of 62.5 and an opening line of Vols -11.5, Vegas is suggesting a score of something like Tennessee 37, South Carolina 25.
Bill Connelly’s SP+ likes Tennessee 37-23 (Vols -14).
Bottom line
- Vegas: Tennessee -11.5 (~Tennessee 37, South Carolina 25)
- Hat Guy: Tennessee -14.6 (Tennessee 35.1, South Carolina 20.5) (covers)
- SP+: Tennessee -14 (Tennessee 37, South Carolina 23) (covers)
- Hat Guy, with organic Guts and Eyeballs: same as Hat Guy
What do y’all think?
Call it BVS or call it wisdom, but I don’t have a good feeling about this game. We could win by 30, lose by 30, or anything in between, but my guess is that we walk away with an L. I do hope I’m wrong.
Heh. Took me a minute on BVS. Understand now. I suffer from the same thing. 🙂