Tennessee opened as a 20-point favorite over the Roadrunners this week, and as of the time I write this, it is 21.5. What does Hat Guy have to say about that?
The Data
- Tennessee’s Scoring Offense this year: 31.6667
- Tennessee’s Rushing Offense this year: 205.0000
- Tennessee’s Passing Offense this year: 242.3333
- UTSA’s Scoring Offense this year: 21.0000
- UTSA’s Rushing Offense this year: 162.3333
- UTSA’s Passing Offense this year: 220.6667
- Tennessee’s Scoring Defense this year: 18.3333
- Tennessee’s Rushing Defense this year: 119
- Tennessee’s Passing Defense this year: 177.3
- UTSA’s Scoring Defense this year: 22.3333
- UTSA’s Rushing Defense this year: 128.7
- UTSA’s Passing Defense this year: 210.7
From the perspective of Tennessee
Vols’ offense
The UTSA scoring defense of 22.3333 is most similar to the following prior FBS Tennessee opponents:
- Florida 15.7
- Virginia 42.3
The Vols scored 16 points against Florida and 49 against Virginia, 112% of what those teams usually give up. Estimated points for Tennessee against UTSA: 25
The UTSA rushing defense of 128.7 is most similar to the following prior FBS Tennessee opponents:
- Florida 83.7
- Virginia 191
Tennessee ran for 100 against the Gators and 287 against the Cavaliers, 141% of what they usually allow. Estimated rushing yards for Tennessee against UTSA: 181.5
The UTSA passing defense of 210.7 is most similar to the following prior FBS Tennessee opponents:
- Florida 172.7
- Virginia 260.7
Tennessee got 287 through the air against Florida and 212 against Virginia, 115% of their usual. Estimated passing yards for Tennessee against UTSA: 242.3
Vols defense
The UTSA scoring offense of 21 is most similar to the following prior FBS Tennessee opponents:
- Virginia 20.7
- Florida 29.7
Tennessee gave up 13 to Virginia and 29 to Florida, 83% when combined. Estimated points for UTSA against Tennessee: 17.4
The UTSA rushing offense of 162.33 is most similar to the following prior FBS Tennessee opponents:
- Florida 174.3
- Virginia 68
The Vols gave up 183 on the ground to Florida and 95 to Virginia, 115% of their usual. Estimated rushing yards for UTSA against Tennessee: 186.7
The UTSA passing offense of 220.67 is most similar to the following prior FBS Tennessee opponents:
- Florida 244
- Virginia 248.7
Florida passed for 166 against the Vols, and Virginia passed for 106, 55%. Estimated passing yards for UTSA against Tennessee: 121.4
Estimated score: Tennessee 25, UTSA 17.4
Estimated rushing yards: Tennessee 181.5, UTSA 186.7
Estimated passing yards: Tennessee 242.3, UTSA 121.4
From the perspective of UTSA
UTSA offense
The Tennessee scoring defense of 18.3333 is most similar to the following prior UTSA opponent(s) (FBS only):
- Army 15.3
- Texas State 28.3
Against Army, UTSA scored 29 points against Army, 20 against Texas State, 112%. Estimated points for UTSA against Tennessee: 20.5
The Tennessee rushing defense of 119 is most similar to the following prior UTSA opponent(s) (FBS only):
- Army 117.3
- Texas State 128
UTSA ran for 121 yards against Army and 158 against Texas State, 114%. Estimated rushing yards for UTSA against Tennessee: 135.7
The Tennessee passing defense of 177.3 is most similar to the following prior UTSA opponent(s) (FBS only):
- Army 175
- Texas State 304
UTSA passed for 239 yards against Army and 214 against Texas State, 95%. Estimated passing yards for UTSA against Tennessee: 168.4
UTSA defense
The Tennessee scoring offense of 31.6667 is most similar to the following prior UTSA opponent(s) (FBS only):
- Army 35.7
- Houston 23.7
Against Army, UTSA allowed 37 points. They gave up 17 to Houston. That’s 91%. Estimated points for Tennessee against UTSA: 28.8.
The Tennessee rushing offense of 205.0000 is most similar to the following prior UTSA opponent(s) (FBS only):
- Texas State 191
- Army 235.7
Against Texas State, UTSA allowed 31 rushing yards. Against Army, they allowed 254 rushing yards. That’s 67%. Estimated rushing yards for Tennessee against UTSA: 137.4
The Tennessee passing offense of 242.3333 is most similar to the following prior UTSA opponent(s) (FBS only):
- Houston 239.3
- Texas State 264.7
Against Houston, UTSA allowed 233 passing yards to Houston and 211 to Texas State, 88%. Estimated passing yards for Tennessee against UTSA: 213.3.
Estimated score: UTSA 20.5, Tennessee 28.8
Estimated rushing yards: UTSA 135.7, Tennessee 137.4
Estimated passing yards: UTSA 168.4, Tennessee 213.3
Combined Estimated Score
SPM Final Estimates
Throw it in, cook it up, take a peek:
| Home | Home Points | Away | Away Points | Favorite | Spread | Home RY | Away RY | Home PY | Away PY |
| Tennessee | 26.9 | UTSA | 19 | Tennessee | -7.9 | 159.5 | 161.2 | 227.8 | 144.9 |
Hat Guy disagrees with the Vegas opening spread by 12.1 points.
Guts and Eyeballs
You just keep thinking that the Vols are going to get their act together and have an offensive explosion. But we haven’t seen it yet, so the eyeballs and the guts don’t agree. Giving the guts a few and going with Tennessee 35, UTSA 17 (Vols -18).
Other predictions from other systems
As I said before, the Vols opened as 20-point favorites and are currently 21.5-point favorites. With an over/under of 56 (opening), that translates to something like Tennessee 38, UTSA 18.
Bill Connelly’s SP+ likes Tennessee 39-19 (Vols -20).
Bottom line
Hat Guy likes the Vols, but not the spread this week.
- Vegas: Tennessee, -20 (~Tennessee 40, UTSA 19)
- SP+: Tennessee -20 (Tennessee 39, UTSA 19) (push)
- Hat Guy: Tennessee -8 (Tennessee 27, UTSA 19) (does not cover)
- Guts and Eyeballs: Tennessee -18 (Tennessee 35, UTSA 17) (does not cover)
What do y’all think?
I agree, unless the Vols unleash a torrent offense like last year, it is going to be closer than the spread. Maybe much closer. Go Vols!
Pretty close on this one. For USC East let’s put that 7:30 game time to the test and get our first SEC win. Go Vols!