Gameday on Rocky Top

So much of what happened last night was new. The question, which was never going to be answered last night, is how much of it will be better.

Josh Heupel’s offense snapped the ball 88 times. The last time we saw Tennessee play against Texas A&M last December, they snapped it 37 times.

The Vols averaged 66 plays per game in 2020. Jeremy Pruitt’s first team averaged 59.7, slowest in college football. You can watch all the film of UCF you want, but when it’s your team in your house, it’s just different. There is no PA announcer when the Vols are on offense, which I’m not sure is a choice or just a fact of playing that fast. As I’m sure Danny White already knows, I can’t text a buddy from my seats because the service is so bad inside Neyland. So sitting there last night, it was really weird to watch this thing come downfield at breakneck speed, with all the things so many of us have become accustomed to in watching a game completely unavailable between time and technology. There’s little opportunity to ponder the last play and consider the stakes of the next one. In-person, there’s even less chance to see where Tennessee’s rushing numbers are on the 12th play of the drive. It’s just constantly coming at you.

So too are the first impressions, where we’re also trying to filter out the noise this morning. Joe Milton launches the football. In warmups, he stood in the back of the end zone while the other quarterbacks stood at the goal line, and still routinely fired it into enemy territory across the 50 with what sure seemed like ease. But Tennessee ended the night with 61 rushing attempts and only 27 dropbacks, giving Bowling Green death by ground game. Milton was 10-of-22 for 100 yards before finally connecting on one of those deep balls to Cedric Tillman. He also had a ludicrous amount of time to throw on several snaps; nevermind Pittsburgh, I’m not sure Tennessee Tech will be that generous.

Meanwhile Tennessee’s defense allowed just 3.59 yards per play, the best performance against an FBS foe since the 2018 Kentucky game. Bowling Green had 32 rushing yards; this part is still new in the football world in general, considering Florida ran for only 19 yards last year in Knoxville but still won with ease. Still, a dominant, welcome performance by Tennessee’s defense.

And Tennessee’s 326 rushing yards were fun all around, with Jabari Small and Tiyon Evans getting 116 apiece, plus Joe Milton’s 44. The Vols had some runs you felt like got stuffed too easily against Bowling Green, though some of that was an injury to Cooper Mays. But they also popped 12 runs of 10+ yards.

It all reminds me a bit of a long car ride before we had all this new technology. When I was a kid, and you got tired of whatever cassette tapes you brought, you’d push a button or turn a knob on your radio dial and try to find something good in an unfamiliar place. Lots of static, some different options, just trying to lock in on a good signal. And it took a precise touch to get the best quality in the midst of all that noise.

Statistically, this game feels a lot like the UTEP contest from Jeremy Pruitt’s first year: the Vols won by less than you thought they should (24-0 in that case), but were thoroughly dominant both on the ground and defensively. Did that kind of performance mean much of anything for the rest of 2018? Not really, because UTEP went 1-11 that fall.

Will this one mean much of anything? Feels like the biggest question after one night is, “How much of that was Bowling Green?” And, of course, you don’t have to wait long for the answer. Pitt will get their own version against UMass on Saturday, and then the Vols and Panthers will get each other.

The Vols will still play fast. Joe Milton will still have that arm. Not sure those new lights will matter much at noon, but there will still be plenty of newness in the atmosphere.

But what kind of atmosphere will the Vols create for themselves next Saturday?

It’s. Game. Day.

Thanks to everyone who used the Gameday on Rocky Top Expected Win Total Machine to make their picks for the season. Heading into tonight, here’s how Tennessee fans are feeling on the year:

Total Expected Wins: 6.74

Game-by-game probabilities:

Bowling Green	95.1%
Pittsburgh	58.4%
Tennessee Tech	97.5%
at Florida	23.9%
at Missouri	45.8%
South Carolina	63.8%
Ole Miss	44.2%
at Alabama	5.7%
at Kentucky	49.8%
Georgia	15.6%
South Alabama	91.6%
Vanderbilt	82.1%

Previous Week 1 Expected Win Totals

• 2020: 5.7 (10 game schedule)
• 2019: 7.2
• 2018: 6.65
• 2017: 7.94

So in the four years we’ve done this exercise, we’ve got a pair of seasons featuring about half as many wins as we originally thought, a healthy miss just by wins and losses in 2018, and one year we got right in August (but wrong in September and October). But thanks in part to Tennessee’s schedule, the 2021 Vols project to have more wins than two of the last three seasons in Week 1, despite all the continued craziness.

The real fun, of course, is projected wins in those toss-up games. We project Tennessee to win 1.982 games out of Pittsburgh, Missouri, Ole Miss, and Kentucky. Throw South Carolina in that mix, and we project 2.62 wins in the five game run closest to the pin. From preseason, this feels like the narrative: you’ve got three non-conference wins plus Vanderbilt on the schedule, and South Carolina might end up in the same category. So get one of Pitt, Mizzou, Ole Miss, and Kentucky, and you’re bowl eligible. Get two, and you’re 7-5. This is, in part, the value of this exercise with the win total machine: if just assigning a win or a loss to each game, fans would lean, even if ever so slightly, toward an L against Missouri, Ole Miss, and Kentucky. But in reality, the expected win totals show fans easily believe Tennessee will get at least one win in there.

You never know with these things: in Week 1 last year we thought having Arkansas on the schedule would be a godsend, and it turned out not so much. After losing to Georgia State, BYU, and Florida our 2019 win total machine ran in the 2’s for a minute. Part of the fun is tracking progress.

But as every season indeed tells a story, there is perhaps a little more room to be pleasantly surprised by this one. It’s possible, starting today.

We’ll run this back every Monday morning, enough time to avoid immediate post-game overreactions, and track the needle throughout the season. Thanks, as always, for being along for the ride.

Enjoy the year. Enjoy the day. Go Vols.

Pandemic, month whatever, and the thing I’ve found most helpful during these crazy days still comes from March of 2020:

In dealing with genuinely terrifying moments, I don't want to be an optimist. And I don't want to be a pessimist.

It's not true that "Everything is possible."
It's not true that "Nothing is possible."

I say a little prayer: God, show me what is possible today.

— Kate Bowler (@KatecBowler) March 18, 2020

If you want idiot optimism, of course, we have that too.

We also spent a lot of time before, during, and immediately following the transition from Pruitt and Fulmer to Josh and Danny talking about exile, and patience. That’s probably still a good idea. It just goes on vacation in Week 1.

Thoughts and prayers for Nebraska, but for the rest of us, this is one of the best weeks of the year. Everyone is undefeated. For Tennessee, it hasn’t been about staying that way in quite some time. But for all of us – Vols included – it is about what’s possible.

To be sure, one thing that’s possible is the Vols struggle right away: losing to Pittsburgh, blown out by Florida, losing at Missouri. If that happens, we’ll fall back on patience. But the self-preservation instincts we’ve been forced to acquire watching our team the last four years will come more naturally and more quickly, and there will be less immediate engagement. I’ve seen it happen in basketball: “Eh, we’re not there yet, I’ll check back again next year.” That’s possible.

But there are a few versions of the possible that we’d find a little more intriguing.

It’s possible Joe Milton is a significant upgrade at quarterback. It needs to be probable that Milton, or Hendon Hooker, or Harrison Bailey, is an upgrade of any kind at the position over what the Vols have done the last four seasons. If not, it’ll be the last five years. But Milton’s physical tools and the high end of his small sample size – the first three performances against Minnesota, Michigan State, and Indiana last year, knowing he got hurt somewhere along the way – are an intriguing set of ingredients to throw in the bowl with Josh Heupel. It doesn’t have to be an All-SEC performance. But it’s possible we see something much closer to it.

It’s possible junior college transfers Tiyon Evans and Byron Young make immediate impacts. Evans was the #1 juco running back via 247 last year, Young the #1 weakside defensive end. These are Jeremy Pruitt pickups in the middle of last season’s free fall. And it appears both will have immediate opportunities to contribute.

It’s possible the transfer portal could speed up some of what comes with rebuilding. It’s unlikely the players the Vols brought in will match the statistical contributions of the guys they lost. But not only do you now have the opportunity to replace those guys – especially important if NCAA violations would’ve allowed exits more freely than entries – but you also might avoid some of what tends to happen in Year 1. When teams struggle around the middle of their season, upperclassmen who weren’t recruited by the new guy and can see either the NFL or the end of their career from here can sometimes check out. You’d certainly still like to have some of the talent the Vols lost, but perhaps the players who remain will stay invested longer, regardless of how the season goes.

It’s possible the offensive line won’t suffer additional significant injuries. K’Rojhn Calbert already rules this one out for the entire team, leaving the Vols perilously thin up front. But by all reports, the coaching staff feels good about their starting five. Can that starting five stay healthy? Tennessee has depth issues at a number of positions, but nowhere would a rash of injuries be more problematic than up front.

It’s possible the window of opportunity to enjoy this team is wider than usual. To be sure, this felt true last year too in the middle of a pandemic, when we were grateful to be playing at all. But expectations are lower, there’s the grace that comes with a first-year coach, and the fatigue of being a fan the last 13 years and life itself in these last 18 months would make us more grateful than ever to be surprised. Bowl eligibility is possible. So too is 7-5, which if it’s followed by a bowl victory, would leave Josh Heupel with the best year one of anyone who’s tried it during this rebuild. That’s the best news of all, felt around the nation this week, hoped for in Knoxville for a long time: progress is possible.

Go Vols.

It’s back, and this time a full slate of games every week! Hey now!

It’s the 2021 Gameday on Rocky Top picks contest, once again from our longtime friends at Fun Office Pools. It’s free to play – you can join our group right here.

As always, the pool uses confidence points: each week we pick 20 games, straight up. You assign 20 points to the outcome you’re most confident in (say, Vols over Bowling Green) and 1 point to the outcome you’re least confident in (say, Georgia vs Clemson). Picks are due before kickoff of each game – please note we usually pick the Thursday night contest. Fittingly, there are ZERO games from Saturday’s Week Zero slate in the contest, so you’ve got until Thursday night to get started. And if you miss a game or a week, fear not: if you forget to pick, you automatically get just one point lower than whoever comes in last place that week among those who submitted their picks.

It’s one of our favorite traditions around here. Good to be back.

Here’s the Week 1 slate:

Thursday, September 2

• Boise State at UCF – 7:00 PM – ESPN
• East Carolina at Appalachian State – 7:30 PM – ESPNU
• South Florida at NC State – 7:30 PM – ACC Network
• #4 Ohio State at Minnesota – 8:00 PM – Fox
• Bowling Green at Tennessee – 8:00 PM – SEC Network

Friday, September 3

• #10 North Carolina at Virginia Tech – 6:00 PM – ESPN
• Duke at Charlotte – 7:00 PM – CBS Sports Network
• Michigan State at Northwestern – 9:00 PM – ESPN

Saturday, September 4

• #19 Penn State at #12 Wisconsin – 12:00 PM – Fox
• #1 Alabama vs #14 Miami (Atlanta) – 3:30 PM – ABC
• #17 Indiana at #18 Iowa – 3:30 PM – Big Ten Network
• West Virginia at Maryland – 3:30 PM – ESPN
• Central Michigan at Missouri – 4:00 PM – SEC Network
• #23 Louisiana at #21 Texas – 4:30 PM – Fox
• San Jose State at #15 USC – 5:00 PM – Pac 12 Network
• #3 Clemson vs #5 Georgia (Charlotte) – 7:30 PM – ABC
• Florida Atlantic at #13 Florida – 7:30 PM – SEC Network
• #16 LSU at UCLA – 8:30 PM – Fox

Sunday, September 5

• #9 Notre Dame at Florida State – 7:30 PM – ABC

Monday, September 6

• Louisville vs Ole Miss (Atlanta) – 8:00 PM – ESPN

All I’m saying is, if we really did give players bags of cash from McDonald’s, I feel like I could’ve been helpful in that operation.

I’m intimately familiar with at least a dozen Knoxville area locations. My wife gets embarrassed when we pull up to the drive-thru and they start putting my order up there on the screen before I even get a chance to say it out loud. ‘Preciate them letting me still say “super-size it” even though I’m told that’s not actually a thing anymore. But look, I may not have the resources to help pay these players, but I could’ve been a bag man. And I would’ve been a good one too. Listen, you gotta spread that stuff around. Get Wendy’s involved. Sonic, they’ve got a good operation. My grandfather used to drink coffee at the Burger King at 5 AM with a bunch of World War II veterans, and don’t think they didn’t make all the real decisions for the community before the rest of us even woke up. Shoulda had more of those guys involved in the process.

But it’s okay, because I only fully believed in Jeremy with 51% of my heart. Bammer. That’s the most I could give. Now we’ve got this new kid running things, who I’ve known since I mispronounced his name for most of the season at Oklahoma 21 years ago.

I’m told we’re gonna play fast, like real fast. Has Danny White considered an upgrade to our restroom facilities? How many plays am I going to miss if I need to use the trough? I’m getting older, boys. I mean, I don’t want to wet myself in Neyland Stadium, but I will if it means I don’t miss anything.

Look, I know, year one or year zero or year 14 of this mess, don’t get your hopes up, just focus on the little things. Just getting to a bowl game would be nice, as long as we don’t self-impose a bowl ban. I say we leave it up to the NCAA and the Lord. Or look, why don’t we self-impose with some creativity? Danny White seems like the guy for that. “Your honor, here’s ten scholarships, no McDonald’s for one semester, and we self-impose ourselves to Shreveport.” Seems fair.

Six wins would be nice, but then I saw that picture of Joe Milton, and now I know we’re winning at least eight. Look how tiny that football looks in his hands! I know he’ll hold it gently, like my heart, and make only good decisions with it. We’re not allowed to play that NCAA Football video game again yet, but my nephew got me Madden and showed me how to trade 2015 Cam Newton onto a team with orange jerseys like the Broncos – for Peyton, of course – so at least I can pretend. I mean, I know Joe Milton won’t be Peyton, but I think if he’s just as good as 2015 Cam Newton we’ll probably be alright.

For real, Bowling Green? That’s a Clawson school, that’s one. Pitt, I fully respect Coach Majors, and all he accomplished there. I just can’t see us losing to somebody wearing those yellow britches. That’s two. Florida, they ain’t no good. We should be riding like a seven game winning streak against those guys if we had the right coaches. Mizzou, equally yellow britches, Heupel knows all their secrets, that’s a dub.

South Carolina is also starting over with a Beamer, so we’ll need to be sharp in punt protection. But as we know, trying out the son of a famous coach is only Step 2 in your 14-year rebuild, so they’ve got some lean years ahead of them yet. Kiffin, (Fulmerized) that guy. That’s 7-0 heading into Bama, that sounds about right. And listen, did you see how open Jalin Hyatt was against those guys last year? And now Joe Milton’s gonna throw that tiny football to him?

It’s all downhill from there, boys. Kentucky? Wait ’til basketball season. Georgia? We’ve out-played them for almost one half of football three years in a row just with Jeremy! Bowl ban don’t matter if you’re gonna make the playoffs!

Game week.

We wanted to wait until we had a starting quarterback, officially. But being that this is, in fact, that week, let’s do this thing.

You know the drill: enter the percentage chance you give Tennessee to win each game. Something closer to 100 for Bowling Green, something closer to 0 for Alabama, etc. Enter your response for each game and hit submit, and you’ll get your expected win total for the season.

At the end of spring practice, our community’s expected win total for this fall was 6.57. Curious to see how that number has gone up or down as kickoff approaches. We’ll reveal the full results before kickoff next Thursday, and we’ll compile the responses every week and let you know how we’re feeling as the season progresses.

Go Vols.

Will Tennessee officially name a starter this week? Maybe. The real question: will that starter be the starter this year?

We’ve looked at this before, and it’s worth repeating: in the post-Fulmer era, the only quarterbacks to take every meaningful snap in a season were Jonathan Crompton in 2009, and Josh Dobbs in 2015-16. Tyler Bray was briefly benched in the 2012 Vanderbilt game; your mileage may vary on how meaningful those snaps were. Even if you count that team on this list, you’re still looking at eight of the last twelve years when Tennessee used at least two quarterbacks.

Let’s say this team does get one guy. And let’s say that one guy stays healthy all year, and plays well enough to still be the guy in December. Let’s say QB1 is around the range we’ve seen from Josh Heupel teams before: Dillon Gabriel averaged 41.3 passes per game last year, way up from the 30.6 he averaged in 2019. McKenzie Milton averaged 31 per game before he got hurt the year before. Drew Lock was at 32.2 in 2017 and 36.2 in 2016.

So conservatively, let’s say QB1 throws it 30 times per game at Tennessee this fall. If he does that every Saturday, staying healthy and keeping his job throughout the season, and Tennessee plays in a bowl game? Those 390 passing attempts would rank fifth in career passes among Tennessee quarterbacks in the post-Fulmer era.

Maybe we’ll get excellence along the way. But first, what’s the value of simple stability?

Consider this: in Phillip Fulmer’s tenure, the Vols threw it more than 5,500 times from 1993-2008. And 85% of those passing attempts came from these guys (data via sports-reference):

• Peyton Manning 24.8%
• Casey Clausen 22.8%
• Erik Ainge 21.7%
• Tee Martin 10.6%
• Heath Shuler 5.1%

That’s three 3+ year starters, plus two years of the guy who won a natty and a year of the Heisman runner-up. That’s pretty good.

And the guys who were next – Jonathan Crompton at 4.4%, Rick Clausen at 3.6% – had their moments, even if Crompton’s came after Fulmer was gone.

In comparison, here’s the current percentage of passing attempts at Tennessee in the post-Fulmer era:

• Josh Dobbs 22.6%
• Tyler Bray 20.9%
• Jarrett Guarantano 18.3%
• Justin Worley 12.6%
• Jonathan Crompton 8.7%

That’s 83.1% of Tennessee’s passes since 2009. And only the top two – who account for less than half of what we’ve seen in the last dozen years – were long-term answers. The next two guys on this list – Matt Simms at 5.8%, Quinten Dormady at 4% – didn’t make it an entire year as a starter. And all of the non-JG options we’ve tried the last two years – Maurer, Shrout, Bailey – didn’t get or create enough opportunity for themselves to move any farther up the list.

Crompton threw it 384 times in 2009. If this year’s QB1 hits 385 – 29.6 per game in Heupel’s offense – they’d crack the top five on the career list post-Fulmer, and trail only Tyler Bray’s 451 (37.6 per game) from 2012 among single-season passing attempts since 2009.

If we get something truly great from QB1, hallelujah. But just getting something good enough to start every Saturday – and keeping it healthy – would provide stability we haven’t seen here in a very long time. To be sure, Dobbs had it, and obviously did plenty of truly great with his legs too. But QB1 doesn’t have to be Dobbs or 2012 Bray to be the most welcome sight we’ve seen at the helm in a very long time.

What’s the biggest difference between what happened at Central Florida and what’s been happening at Tennessee? 40+ yard plays.

A 40+ yard play is a good benchmark for a true drive-changer. A 20-30+ yard play might still lead to a punt, or down in close perhaps you were already in field goal range. But the 40+ territory tends to directly change the outcome.

Last year, Tennessee hit three 40+ yard plays in 10 games, good for 111th nationally. JG hit his second long completion to Jaylin Hyatt against Alabama; the Vols scored a touchdown on the next play. Harrison Bailey and Velus Jones connected for a 74-yard touchdown against Vanderbilt with the Vols up 35-17. And J.T. Shrout and Cedric Tillman turned in one against Texas A&M that, if you’re like me, you’ve already forgotten about because by that point we were trying to figure out who was getting investigated for what.

That’s three for the Vols in 10 games. In 2019, Tennessee hit 13 40+ yard plays in 13 games, 73rd nationally.

UCF, in 10 games last year, led the nation in 40+ yard plays with 24. Among teams that only played 10 games, Texas was second with 20. In 2019, UCF had 30 40+ yard plays in 13 games, trailing only Memphis (35 in 14 games).

It’s something we heard a lot about Josh Heupel’s offense when he first arrived, so much so we probably became a little numb to it. But the true numbing sensation is from the difference between what Central Florida has done, and the comparison to Tennessee.

In fact, you have to go back to 2012 to find a Tennessee offense that ranked in the Top 35 in 40+ yard plays. Via SportSource Analytics:

Year	40+ Yard Plays	Rank
2020	3	111
2019	13	73
2018	17	36
2017	10	97
2016	18	41
2015	9	101
2014	7	117
2013	11	80
2012	19	15
2011	11	67

That’s Chaney, Bajakian, DeBord, Scott, Helton, and Chaney. And only in 2012 were the Vols truly explosive. You’ll remember the 2015 group winning nine games in spite of this statistic, leading to an off-season of, “Will they let Dobbs throw it deep?”

Consider how football has changed: in 2012, Tyler Bray and company were 15th nationally with 19 40+ yard plays, and only three teams – Baylor, Aaron Murray’s Georgia, and Chuckie Keeton’s Utah State – had more than 25 40+ yard plays. Two years earlier in 2010, only San Diego State had 25+ 40+ yard plays.

In 2019, six teams hit that mark. In 2016, 13 teams did it.

Since Bray’s last hurrah – armed with a defense that required lots of points to keep you in it – the Vols have been mostly managing risk in one form or another. Sometimes that looked like Justin Worley, sometimes it was Dobbs on a leash. It was really only in November of 2016, when the Vols also had a defense that required lots of points, that Tennessee truly lived this kind of life. Since then, whether through Jarrett Guarantano or various attempts to find a better option, whether philosophy or talent or all of the above…Tennessee just hasn’t seemed that interested in big plays.

They may need a bunch this fall. We’ll see. But whether they do or don’t, the pursuit should be enjoyable to watch. And to be sure, that pursuit may come with deep balls that miss their target and more three-and-outs than we can imagine against good defenses. But just the idea of the big play seems like something the Vols haven’t aggressively pursued in a long time. And that pursuit, in and of itself, should lead to more fun this fall.

I think one thing Josh Heupel’s tenure will spark among our fanbase is a greater view of the game by the number of possessions we’re ahead or behind. When you play at such a rapid pace, more possessions means more opportunity. We’ve already seen somewhat of a move this direction in the last few years: Butch Jones’ Vols both gave away and recovered from multi-possession leads on a much more regular basis than anything we were used to before.

There’s value as a fan, especially of a team trying to rebuild, in being close. And not just in the end result, but in the process. Even before Butch or Heupel, a two-possession game has always felt within reach to me, even if that reach is touchdown-onside-touchdown. It’s improbable, but hopeful. Maybe that’s just me.

But even staying within two possessions has been much more of a challenge recently. And it would be an incredibly welcome addition in Heupel’s first season.

In Tennessee’s “decade” of dominance from 1989-2001, the Vols had seven losses by three or more possessions. If you’re old enough, you can probably list them from memory: 89 Alabama, 91 Florida, 91 Penn State, 93 Penn State, 94 Florida, 95 Florida, 97 Nebraska. Every one of those teams was raked in the Top 15, with those losses accounting for 4% of the total games Tennessee played in that 13-year run.

This is why it was so alarming, then, when the 2002 Vols, ranked in the top five in preseason, lost four games by 3+ possessions. Injuries, turnovers, and #1 Miami were all factors. Tennessee was much more competitive overall the next four years, suffering a single blowout loss each season from 2003-06. The 2007 roller coaster included a pair of such losses to Florida and Alabama. And then, of course, the wheels came off in 2008: three blowout losses, giving the Vols 13 3+ possession losses in seven seasons from 2002-08 at the end of the Fulmer era. The first nine of them came to Top 20 teams, before Nick Saban’s unranked Alabama squad did it in his first season in October 2007. An unranked South Carolina squad officially ended the Fulmer era in October 2008. Still, 11 of those 13 blowout losses came to Top 20 foes. Those losses accounted for 14.6% of Tennessee’s games in Fulmer’s last seven seasons.

From 2009-2016, the Vols suffered 18 3+ possession losses. It happened to Lane Kiffin twice, then three times in each of Derek Dooley’s seasons. An incredibly high strength of schedule gave Butch Jones four such losses in his first year, but then just two in 2014. And the 2015 Vols remain the only Tennessee team that hasn’t taken a 3+ possession loss since 2001; the 2016 Vols took one only to Alabama, joining their predecessors as the only Tennessee teams to suffer less than two 3+ possession losses since 2006.

So in that eight year span of rebuilding from 2009-16, Tennessee lost 18 3+ possession games to account for 17.8% of their total Saturdays. Still, through the end of the 2016 season Tennessee was mostly only getting blown out by good teams. Only three of those 18 losses came to unranked foes: Ole Miss and Dexter McCluster to Lane Kiffin, a slow-starting Georgia squad in Athens in 2010, and the Vanderbilt game in Derek Dooley’s farewell performance, essentially a man coaching without a job. The Vols were blown out more than we wanted in this stretch, and Dooley failed to beat a ranked team throughout his time, but the Vols were overall just getting beaten by better teams.

But in the last four years, Tennessee has lost 18 more 3+ possession games. That’s 38.2% of Saturdays from 2017-20. And a third of those losses came to unranked teams. Again: it’s been bad for a while, and the worst of it has been recently.

One question we asked a lot leading up to the 2020 season was, “Will I feel like Tennessee has a real chance to win every Saturday at kickoff?” Turns out the answer was no, but it felt like a measure of progress the program needed to be ready for going into year three.

In year one, obviously, you’re working with a different set of expectations. You start by setting the Alabama game aside: since an inspired rally in 2014 and a near miss in 2015, the Vols have lost by 39, 38, 37, 22, and 31. Making that one a four-possession game in 2021 might be relative success.

But even with Florida and Georgia on the schedule, there’s perhaps a glimmer of hope: including home field advantage in preseason SP+ projections, the Gators come in at around -15.5 against the Vols, the Dawgs -14 in Knoxville. Just hitting those projections, making those a pair of two-score games? That would be a really nice start for Josh Heupel.

I don’t expect Tennessee to have a real chance to win every Saturday this fall. I don’t really have any expectations when they play Bama. But everywhere else, if the Vols can just keep themselves invested in the outcome, even if it’s two possessions? If we can watch these games and think, “Well, we’re still in it…”? I think that will go a long way to our own investment as fans moving forward.

Bill Connelly’s final 2021 SP+ projections dropped this week at ESPN+, one of our favorite signs of the season getting close. We love SP+ for the way it helps us look beyond a team’s record in determining its true strength, and the value it places on every snap. The easy joke here is, of course, “That’s good, because Tennessee’s record may not be very good this year…”. But SP+ actually offers a little more optimism on that front for the Vols.

SP+ is one of the best indicators of how the Vols have both struggled for 13 years now, and the worst of it has happened most recently.

Butch Jones’ final season in 2017 is still the basement, with last season the second-worst of the last 15 years. And Jeremy Pruitt’s first season just edges past Butch Jones’ first season in rounding out the four lowest ratings for Tennessee since 2006.

(For more history, here’s our look at 50+ years of Tennessee in SP+ from January 2019.)

The good news here: Tennessee’s 2021 projection has the Vols north of these four worst seasons.

If we group these past seasons into tiers – something we did with KenPom projections for Tennessee’s last basketball season here – the 2021 Vols are projected to escape the basement in SP+. Tennessee’s five worst seasons of the last 15 years check in at:

• 2017: 1.2 (points better than the average team on a neutral field)
• 2020: 4.6
• 2013: 5.1
• 2018: 5.5
• 2011: 6.9

Tennessee’s 2021 projection is 8.3, making them essentially four point favorites over last year’s team from the get-go. This makes the best projected comparison for this team not the worst of our worst, but two other seasons:

• 2010: 7.7
• 2021: 8.3 (preseason projection)
• 2019: 10.8

If Josh Heupel’s first season ends up looking more like Derek Dooley’s and less like Butch Jones’ and Jeremy Pruitt’s, Tennessee will be moving in the right direction. And if the Vols can find success in close games the way Pruitt’s second team did, Tennessee can find itself on the right side of bowl eligibility.

What can we learn from 2010 and 2019?

Best teams still (mostly) out of reach. Dooley’s Year Zero Vols flirted with Oregon for the better part of three quarters, then found themselves losing by 35. The Vols were down just 13-10 at halftime to Alabama, but lost by 31. Pruitt’s 2019 Vols had a ton of chances to create a close game with Florida in the first half, cashed in none of them, and lost by 31. You get the picture.

But you’ll also recall Dooley’s Vols beating LSU on the first try in Baton Rouge, and Pruitt’s Vols at the goal line to cut Alabama’s lead to one possession. Dooley’s first team also cut Florida’s lead to seven with 11 minutes to play in 2010.

Add in a few points for home field advantage, and SP+ essentially has the Vols a 26-point underdog at Alabama and a two-touchdown underdog to Florida and Georgia. If those numbers actually held…that’s not a bad start for Josh Heupel. Since 2015, the Vols have only come within 30 points of Bama once, in that 35-13 loss in 2019. And two-score affairs with Florida and Georgia would be encouraging signs of progress.

Close games may abound (with anyone). Dooley’s 2010 Vols had a near miss with UAB, needing two overtimes to secure a 32-29 win. Pruitt’s 2019 Vols, of course, lost to Georgia State. Bowling Green may not quite be up to the challenge, but South Alabama (or Vanderbilt, depending on how we think of them at the time) may not qualify as sure things.

The 2019 Vols in particular were masters of close games, finding a way as one-possession underdogs to get it done against Mississippi State, South Carolina, Kentucky, and Missouri.

One thing to note about the 2021 SP+ projections: Pittsburgh is right above Tennessee at 8.5, creating an immediate toss-up in week two. The same goes for Kentucky and Missouri, where Tennessee’s slight SP+ advantage in preseason would be negated by home field advantage. And Ole Miss clocks in at around -4 against the Vols in these projections – which also do not think highly, at all, of South Carolina – creating an expected win total that’s going to creep closest to 7-5.

Get better as the year goes on. Obviously you want to avoid doing it the way Pruitt’s 2019 Vols did by losing to Georgia State and BYU before getting blown out by Florida, but the end result on both of these comparison squads was pretty good. Dooley’s first year ended with a particularly sour note against North Carolina, but the Vols found their quarterback and won four in a row to close the regular season to earn bowl eligibility. Same with the 2019 squad, starting 1-4 but finishing at 8-5 after the Gator Bowl. That’s still the best any Tennessee team has done in the post-Fulmer era other than the 2015-16 squads.

The Vols don’t have a stud freshman (that we’re anticipating) coming off the bench in mid-October to save the day, and the Georgia game sits in November now, so you can’t coast to the finish line. But if Josh Heupel’s team can avoid a significant upset, get above .500 in close games, and grow as the season progresses? They’ll have an opportunity to earn bowl eligibility, and escape the worst-of-the-worst seasons Tennessee has encountered during this long journey of exile. That would be a good start.