Expected Win Total Machine: Week 2

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The question this week: will our community expected win total for the Vols, at 6.74 going into Bowling Green, go down even in 32-point victory? Will it stay north of 6.5 wins, or will 6-6 become our most likely outcome?

Expected win total is about us, but it’s also about who we play. Pitt had the kind of game we would’ve loved against the kind of opponent we both saw: the Panthers throttled UMass 51-7, but again, it’s UMass. We’ll learn all we need to know about the Vols and Panthers on Saturday.

You know the drill: enter the percentage chance you give Tennessee to win each of its remaining 11 regular season games, hit submit, and you’ll get your expected win total this week.

My thoughts on the longer view from Saturday and how we’re feeling about each opponent based on what they did:

  • About the same: Florida’s going to be tough to judge before our meeting in Week 4, as the Gators played themselves into a hair of a QB controversy in Week 1. Resolved or not this week at South Florida, it then goes into the fire of Alabama, whose version of “about the same” means asking yourself if 5% is too great a win probability for Tennessee in that game. South Carolina handled its FCS opponent. Ole Miss plays tonight against Louisville.
  • The same, but different: Georgia beat Clemson 10-3 with a defensive touchdown. Mostly I’m upset that I stayed up to watch it.
  • A little better: Missouri struggled to put Central Michigan away because they went 1-for-11 on third down, the same number the Vols put up in struggling to put away South Carolina last season.
  • A little worse: Kentucky is probably the biggest mover of the week, depending on your thoughts on Georgia’s offense and defense. Will Levis threw a pick out the gate, then went for 367 yards and four touchdowns through the air.
  • A lot better: Vanderbilt. Randy Sanders’ last game as Tennessee’s offensive coordinator was a loss to Jay Cutler’s Vanderbilt squad with Rick Clausen playing quarterback in 2005. The best revenge is living well for the next 15 years, then getting spectacularly even via East Tennessee State University.
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Isaac Bishop
Isaac Bishop
1 month ago

Your expected win total is 6.7.
Your details:

at Bowling Green: 100%

vs Pittsburgh: 40%

vs Tennessee Tech: 100%

at Florida: 35%

at Missouri: 45%

vs South Carolina: 60%

vs Mississippi: 40%

at Alabama: 3%

at Kentucky: 40%

vs Georgia: 15%

vs South Alabama: 95%

vs Vanderbilt: 95%

JustinTipton
JustinTipton
1 month ago

Your expected win total is 5.1.

Your details:

at Bowling Green: 100%

vs Pittsburgh: 35%

vs Tennessee Tech: 85%

at Florida: 5%

at Missouri: 15%

vs South Carolina: 50%

vs Mississippi: 35%

at Alabama: 1%

at Kentucky: 35%

vs Georgia: 1%

vs South Alabama: 85%

vs Vanderbilt: 65%

Gavin Driskill
Gavin Driskill
1 month ago

Will and I on spectacularly similar wavelengths…6.2 for me.

vs Pittsburgh: 42%

vs Tennessee Tech: 99%

at Florida: 15%

at Missouri: 35%

vs South Carolina: 60%

vs Mississippi: 40%

at Alabama: 1%

at Kentucky: 35%

vs Georgia: 10%

vs South Alabama: 90%

vs Vanderbilt: 90%

Jayyyy
Jayyyy
1 month ago

Your expected win total is 6.4.

Your details:

at Bowling Green: 100%

vs Pittsburgh: 50%

vs Tennessee Tech: 95%

at Florida: 20%

at Missouri: 35%

vs South Carolina: 60%

vs Mississippi: 35%

at Alabama: 5%

at Kentucky: 40%

vs Georgia: 10%

vs South Alabama: 95%

vs Vanderbilt: 93%

Sam Hensley
Sam Hensley
1 month ago

Your expected win total is 6.3.

Your details:

at Bowling Green: 100%

vs Pittsburgh: 46%

vs Tennessee Tech: 98%

at Florida: 15%

at Missouri: 40%

vs South Carolina: 60%

vs Mississippi: 35%

at Alabama: 4%

at Kentucky: 35%

vs Georgia: 7%

vs South Alabama: 97%

vs Vanderbilt: 95%

I don’t think we really have a prayer against UGA or Bama. I feel better about avoiding a Ga State kind of embarrassment against TN Tech or S. Alabama. And I get to add Vandy to that same tier of matchups. I really don’t know what to expect this weekend, but I am leaning towards a loss. Hope I’m wrong!

HixsonVol
HixsonVol
1 month ago

Sitting at 6 wins this week

HT
HT
1 month ago

Your expected win total is 5.9.

Your details:

at Bowling Green: 100%

vs Pittsburgh: 40%

vs Tennessee Tech: 98%

at Florida: 10%

at Missouri: 40%

vs South Carolina: 50%

vs Mississippi: 20%

at Alabama: 1%

at Kentucky: 25%

vs Georgia: 5%

vs South Alabama: 98%

vs Vanderbilt: 98%

Preseason I was at 5.0. That included 80s for both BGSU and Tech, which in retrospect may have seemed low but I have no regrets. I have added some confidence to some of the middle-of-the-pack teams and 5% each to USA and Vandy. Once again the system would not let me use “0” for Alabama.

Drew
Drew
1 month ago

Here’s what I put in. It’s mostly toss ups but somehow comes to about 6 wins. Your expected win total is 5.9.

Your details:

at Bowling Green: 100%

vs Pittsburgh: 50%

vs Tennessee Tech: 95%

at Florida: 20%

at Missouri: 30%

vs South Carolina: 40%

vs Mississippi: 25%

at Alabama: 10%

at Kentucky: 50%

vs Georgia: 10%

vs South Alabama: 95%

vs Vanderbilt: 60%

SmokeyX
SmokeyX
1 month ago

Your expected win total is 6.8.

Your details:

at Bowling Green: 100%

vs Pittsburgh: 40%

vs Tennessee Tech: 99%

at Florida: 35%

at Missouri: 45%

vs South Carolina: 55%

vs Mississippi: 40%

at Alabama: 10%

at Kentucky: 35%

vs Georgia: 35%

vs South Alabama: 99%

vs Vanderbilt: 90%

Harley
Harley
1 month ago

Whoops… guess I got a little too positive this week. Go Vols!

Your expected win total is 7.3.

Your details:

at Bowling Green: 100%

vs Pittsburgh: 50%

vs Tennessee Tech: 100%

at Florida: 30%

at Missouri: 70%

vs South Carolina: 70%

vs Mississippi: 60%

at Alabama: 0%

at Kentucky: 40%

vs Georgia: 10%

vs South Alabama: 100%

vs Vanderbilt: 100%

Josh Farrar
Josh Farrar
1 month ago

Your expected win total is 6.0 (up a whole 0.1 from last week!)
Your details:
at Bowling Green: 100%
vs Pittsburgh: 50%
vs Tennessee Tech: 100%
at Florida: 15%
at Missouri: 25%
vs South Carolina: 75%
vs Mississippi: 10%
at Alabama: 0%
at Kentucky: 20%
vs Georgia: 10%
vs South Alabama: 100%
vs Vanderbilt: 90%

Last edited 1 month ago by Josh Farrar