The question this week: will our community expected win total for the Vols, at 6.74 going into Bowling Green, go down even in 32-point victory? Will it stay north of 6.5 wins, or will 6-6 become our most likely outcome?
Expected win total is about us, but it’s also about who we play. Pitt had the kind of game we would’ve loved against the kind of opponent we both saw: the Panthers throttled UMass 51-7, but again, it’s UMass. We’ll learn all we need to know about the Vols and Panthers on Saturday.
You know the drill: enter the percentage chance you give Tennessee to win each of its remaining 11 regular season games, hit submit, and you’ll get your expected win total this week.
My thoughts on the longer view from Saturday and how we’re feeling about each opponent based on what they did:
- About the same: Florida’s going to be tough to judge before our meeting in Week 4, as the Gators played themselves into a hair of a QB controversy in Week 1. Resolved or not this week at South Florida, it then goes into the fire of Alabama, whose version of “about the same” means asking yourself if 5% is too great a win probability for Tennessee in that game. South Carolina handled its FCS opponent. Ole Miss plays tonight against Louisville.
- The same, but different: Georgia beat Clemson 10-3 with a defensive touchdown. Mostly I’m upset that I stayed up to watch it.
- A little better: Missouri struggled to put Central Michigan away because they went 1-for-11 on third down, the same number the Vols put up in struggling to put away South Carolina last season.
- A little worse: Kentucky is probably the biggest mover of the week, depending on your thoughts on Georgia’s offense and defense. Will Levis threw a pick out the gate, then went for 367 yards and four touchdowns through the air.
- A lot better: Vanderbilt. Randy Sanders’ last game as Tennessee’s offensive coordinator was a loss to Jay Cutler’s Vanderbilt squad with Rick Clausen playing quarterback in 2005. The best revenge is living well for the next 15 years, then getting spectacularly even via East Tennessee State University.