Gameday on Rocky Top

Tennessee is playing for bowl eligibility on Saturday, but also to even its record this decade. The Vols are 55-56 since 2010. A win would tie them with Ole Miss and Arkansas for the decade as the only SEC teams with a better winning percentage than the usual basement dwellers from Kentucky and Vanderbilt. Kentucky is obviously up this year, but still trails over the decade at 47-63. Vanderbilt sits at 49-62.

But head-to-head, the Vols and Dores have split the decade so far. And more often than not, what Tennessee has done against the Commodores has played a significant role in the success or failure of their season. It’s not the measuring stick we envisioned at the start of the decade. The Vols can take an important step in leveling up by getting past the Commodores tomorrow.

Here’s a look back at how the last eight meetings have defined Tennessee’s season:

2010: At 4-6, Tyler Bray made his third start and led the Vols to a 24-10 win in Nashville to keep bowl eligibility alive. The Vols beat Kentucky the following week for a successful end to Derek Dooley’s first regular season.

2011: This decade is full of wildly entertaining games in the moment that didn’t stand the test of time because the season was ultimately unsuccessful. One of the best examples: after Tyler Bray missed five games with a broken thumb, he led the 4-6 Vols to a 14-7 halftime lead over a 5-5 James Franklin squad. But a 100-yard pick six tied the score, then Vandy took the lead with 12 minutes to play. A 13-play drive was capped with a fourth-and-goal touchdown pass to Da’Rick Rogers, setting the stage for overtime. Eric Gordon pick-sixed Jordan Rodgers (after a lengthy review) for the win. It was a great step forward in Bray’s return, and positioned Dooley to earn bowl eligibility again…and then the Vols lost at Kentucky.

2012: Dooley’s final game as head coach was a 41-18 beat down from Franklin and the Commodores. His fate was likely already sealed and Tennessee fans were simply interested in moving on. But while losing to Vanderbilt is uncomfortably common now, this loss was the first in the series since 2005 and the second since 1982, and the margin was jarring.

2013: Butch Jones came to his first Vanderbilt game in the exact position Jeremy Pruitt finds himself in now. A Josh Dobbs you’d never recognize now went 11-of-19 for 53 yards, the Vols failed to convert a faked field goal up 10-7 with 12 minutes to play, and after a fourth-and-one stop was overturned, Patton Robinette capped a 12-play, 92-yard drive with a touchdown with 16 seconds to play. It cost the Vols bowl eligibility and dampened some of the good memories of a near miss vs Georgia and a win over #4 South Carolina.

2014: Back in the same boat at 5-6, this time the Vols made it work. An 11-play, 94-yard third quarter drive put Tennessee in front 17-10, and a late score from Dobbs pushed the margin to 24-10 before a Vanderbilt score in the final seconds made the final margin 24-17. The Vols earned bowl eligibility for the first time in three years, and dominated Iowa in Jacksonville.

2015: The only business-as-usual Tennessee-Vanderbilt game of the decade. The Vols won 53-28 over a 4-7 Vanderbilt team behind 331 rushing yards, carrying Tennessee to the Outback Bowl.

2016: The most costly of any of these losses. With a clear path to the New Year’s Six, Tennessee led 34-24 with four minutes to play in the third quarter. From there: Vanderbilt touchdown, Tennessee fumble, Vanderbilt touchdown, Tennessee missed field goal, Vanderbilt touchdown, Tennessee turnover on downs. An already contentious season for Butch Jones took a hard turn into disappointment, setting the stage for his exit the following season.

2017: Jones was out, but the Vols still had a chance to avoid the first 4-8 season in program history. It was not to be: despite a 14-7 lead and trailing only 21-17 with five minutes to play in the third quarter, the defense again surrendered three straight touchdowns down the stretch. Vanderbilt finished 5-7, the Vols 4-8.

Four wins, four losses. The 2011 win was lost in the disaster in Lexington the following week, but I’d say you can draw a straight line between relatively successful regular seasons in 2010, 2014, and 2015 and beating the Commodores. A regular season that might feel more successful than any since 2010 will turn on what the Vols do against Vanderbilt one more time tomorrow.

 

Back during Butch Jones’ first year in Knoxville in 2013, the Vols entered the penultimate game of the season against Vanderbilt needing a win out against the Commodores and Kentucky Wildcats to make a bowl game.

UT lost 14-10 in a hapless showing, and as I was walking out of Neyland Stadium, fans grumbled, and I heard the first questions about whether or not the first-year Tennessee coach could get the job done.

As we all know now, he couldn’t. And while I don’t know how fair it is to begin to question at that early juncture of the season, it’s something Jeremy Pruitt will hear a little if the Vols leave Nashville with a loss this season in a winner-take-all (some?) game this weekend.

Personally, I figured this season would be on the brink of 6-6 or 5-7 all year, so I’m going to dial back the criticism. The roster was in terrible shape this year, and though the lack of talent and consistency have killed UT, it’s important to keep things in perspective. Clay Travis reminded us of that this week:

How bad of shape did Butch Jones leave Tennessee in? Worse than Fulmer, Kiffin, & Dooley for sure. Vols have been underdogs in all 8 SEC games this year for the first time in program history. This week Vols are +3.5 vs Vandy, the shortest SEC underdog Vols have been all year.

— Clay Travis (@ClayTravis) November 21, 2018

Tennessee was a six or more point underdog against 8 of 9 FBS teams on the schedule this year. Only favored to beat UTEP, Charlotte, & ETSU. If Pruitt gets Vols to 6-6 he will have won three games as an underdog. Would be a fantastic coaching job that is being overlooked by most

— Clay Travis (@ClayTravis) November 21, 2018

Of course, there’s never an excuse when you’re Tennessee to lose to Vanderbilt. But the harrowing fact is, regardless of how the Vols have beaten the Commodores in recruiting classes, VU has developed better recently. They have a senior starting quarterback in Kyle Shurmur, some playmakers on offense [looking at you, Ke’Shawn Vaughn] and arguably a better defense than Mizzou. This is not a great matchup for Tennessee.

This season has been equal parts hopeful and frustrating. The game to look back on that should sting is the South Carolina second-half collapse. Win that, and this game is virtually meaningless. Instead, this one means a good bit to Pruitt and VU coach Derek Mason.

For Pruitt, though, this is uncharted waters, as he mentioned this week. He’s used to this last game meaning something, and 6-6 — you can just tell when he talks — is not something he’s trumpeting in the least. He probably wants this season to just be over so he can trade 25 players for those of his own, but he knows the value of winning for his young guys is the extra 15 practices.

That’s the most important element of this game for him. For us, it’s not wanting to lose to Vanderbilt again, which has quite frankly owned us recently. Those words taste bitter, but they’re true.

KEYS

Tying things together

I have this vision of Tennessee celebrating at Vanderbilt Stadium and Ty Chandler being hailed as the hero, going home and having one of the biggest games of his two-year college career.

UT needs it to happen, but in order for it to, the offensive line must play better than it has at any point this season. Vanderbilt’s rush defense is 13th in the league, allowing 195 yards per game. The Vols have to run the ball, and they have to get Chandler touches in space, whether that be rushing to the edge or catching passes.

Saturday has to be Ty’s game, and the offensive line needs to make sure he can take it and run with it. If he stars, the Vols win.

Play JG

The reason Tennessee lost against Missouri last week was not that Jarrett Guarantano went out early in the first quarter with a head injury, but it sure didn’t help.

Again, that’s an indictment of an awful offensive line that needs to drastically improve in this offseason, or position coach Will Friend needs to be fired. It’s been that bad, and there’s been very little glimmers of improvement. The O-line finally got JG hurt after all the shots he’s taken this year, and it crushed UT’s offensive hopes.

Hopefully, JG can go this weekend, the line can keep his jersey relatively clean. The Vols need to hit a few of their customary shots downfield, and Guarantano’s health entering the game and sustained throughout are paramount to the Vols making enough offensive plays to win.

Shake Shurmur

Last weekend, Tennessee failed to get any pressure at all on Mizzou veteran quarterback Drew Lock thanks to a sturdy Tigers offensive line, and Lock sat back there in the pocket and shredded UT’s secondary with as much time as he needed. He delivered precision pass after precision pass in a resume game for the NFL. His numbers would have been much better had the Tigers not dropped a pair of deep balls.

Shurmur is no Lock, but he’s a capable veteran quarterback who has thrown a lot of SEC passes and had a ton of success against the Vols. If UT can’t get to him, he will torch Tennessee’s young secondary, and make Alontae Taylor and Bryce Thompson look bad. Darrell Taylor and Co. must find a way to generate a pass rush.

And the young cornerbacks need to play better than they did a week ago, too.

Steal points

Speaking of those young DBs, it’s about time for Alontae Taylor to make his freshman season signature play, isn’t it? He’s had a really strong year, even though he was embarrassed a little a week ago against Missouri. He needs to play for a little pride this week and rebound with a big interception or forced fumble.

Tennessee needs to generate a couple of turnovers deep in Vanderbilt territory and parlay them into extra points. I’m not sure UT can win straight-up without forcing the Commodores into some miscues. This is a very important element of Saturday’s game.

No freebies

On the flip side of that, the margin for error for this team is zero. A week ago, the Vols were driving for what could have been a late first-half touchdown that could have cut the Mizzou lead to 19-17. Instead, Keller Chryst threw a “bad pass” according to his coach, that was picked off, and the Tigers instead turned it into a touchdown and a 26-10 halftime advantage.

That was a soul-crushing, momentum-seizing play.

In the third quarter, Carlin Fils-aime’s fumble was picked up and returned for a scoop-and-score, and the rout was on. That’s essentially a 21- or possibly even 28-point swing. The Vols cannot do that. No team can, but especially not one as slim on talent as Tennessee.

They’ve got to cut out mistakes, or they’ll lose.

Prediction: Tennessee always beats Vanderbilt, right? Well, that’s no longer the case, now, is it? We’ve endured some embarrassing years, and the biggest disappointments in them all are the ownership of UT by South Carolina and the former cupcake in Nashville.

This is not a good Vanderbilt team. It may be better than the Vols, but that doesn’t mean it’s a good team. If UT loses, there needs to be plenty of grumbles, and it will make Pruitt’s job on the recruiting trail a little harder. I don’t know that I fully believe it, but because I can’t bear the thought of losing again, I’m taking the Vols in a close one.

Vols win 27-24

LOCKS

On the way to the Tennessee game last weekend, I was bragging to my dad about how all these big-wig college football reporters’ records ATS this year were like 10 games under .500, and how even though I was beating myself up over being two games in the black, I was pretty strong.

Then last week happened, and I did the equivalent of the Vols defense.

The college football world threw up a 50-burger on me. I went 1-6, easily the worst showing of the season to fall to 37-40 with just one week to go. That’s incredibly disappointing. Much like the Vols, I fell on my face. Now, I’ve got to rally with everybody against me to come up mediocre.

The only game I won was Nebraska +1.5 against Michigan State. Syracuse pooped the bed against Notre Dame, Texas Tech’s worst performance of the season came against Kansas State, we all know what happened with UT, West Virginia lost outright to Oklahoma State, Florida State upset Boston College and Vanderbilt actually beat Ole Miss. There it is – 1-6. *Shudder*.

Here’s hoping for a 5-2 record and a solid season with a push…

1. Memphis and Houston under 76: It’s normally not smart to bet the under in Memphis games, but I’m not sure the Cougars can hold up their end of the scoreboard without D’Eriq King. I think this one scrapes by.
2. Syracuse +6.5 over Boston College: I hate picking games during rivalry week because of all the close lines, but this is one of those I can’t believe I’m getting points in. I think the Orange win outright.
3. Michigan and Ohio State under 57: I’m staying away from the line in the Big Game, but I love Michigan’s defense, and I think this number is way, way too high.
4. Pittsburgh +4 over Miami: It’s not often Vegas hasn’t caught up to a team at this point in the season, but that’s the case with the Panthers, who are still getting disrespected by the oddsmakers.
5. LSU +3 over Texas A&M: This is the third game where I’m stunned I’m getting points. LSU is too polished on defense to let this game slip by.
6. Oklahoma State -5 over TCU: Could this be a letdown game? Sure. The Cowboys have played their best against the best competition this year, and now they’re going up against one of the best defenses in the Big 12. But they’ll do enough to cover this slight number.
7. Notre Dame -11.5 over USC: Things are going downhill fast in L.A. This will be Clay Helton’s last game; I’ve learned by lesson on the Irish after last week.

Happy Thanksgiving, everyone.

In this space last weekend, we published our weekly statsy preview with the subtitle The comps have to be wrong about this game, right? The GRT SPM spit out a (rounded) score of Missouri 40, Tennessee 17, a prediction so offensive to my eyes and guts that I just ignored it and made my official prediction 31-27 notwithstanding any of the comps.

Immediately after the game that ended in a 50-17 Tigers win, the SPM texted me a sticking-out-your-tongue emoji, which was a total shock to me because I had no idea it even had a tongue. Or a face, for that matter. I reminded it that it was wrong about the Kentucky game, and the conversation ended there.

Anyway . . . This week, the SPM mostly agrees with Vegas, my eyes, and my gut, and is expecting a close one between the Vols and Commodores Saturday. So, we can all agree this week that we hope we’re all wrong and end up with a repeat of the game against the Wildcats.

Predictions

SPM: Vanderbilt 20, Tennessee 17.8

Eye- and gut-adjusted: Vanderbilt 21, Tennessee 20

Tennessee rushing yards: 160

Tennessee passing yards: 220

Vanderbilt rushing yards: 140

Vanderbilt passing yards: 180

Tennessee points: 20

Vanderbilt points: 21

Spread: Vanderbilt, -1

Tennessee rushing

Tennessee is averaging 131.5 rushing yards per game. Vanderbilt is giving up 194.9 per game on the ground, which makes them the worst rushing defense the Vols have seen all season. The closest comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent that is better at defending the run than Vanderbilt is South Carolina, which is allowing 192.3. But Tennessee only got 144 on the ground against the Gamecocks.

Based on all of that, my guess for rushing yards for Tennessee against Vanderbilt is 160.

Tennessee passing

Tennessee is averaging 201.6 passing yards per game, and Vanderbilt is allowing 241.1. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is West Virginia, which is giving up 244.1 yards per game through the air. A brand spanking new Tennessee team still finding itself put up only 172 against them in the first game of the season for both teams.

On the other hand, the closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Charlotte, which is allowing 225.0 passing yards per game, and Tennessee got only 172 against them.

My eye and gut tell me that Tennessee can do better through the air than it did against either West Virginia early or Charlotte late, and that’s supported by the numbers when you look at them from Vandy’s perspective. Arkansas is averaging 197.5 passing yards per game, and they got 240 against the ‘Dores. Florida, which averages 213.8, got 284. So, the Vols should do better than their average through the air against Vanderbilt Saturday.

Based on that, I’m saying that Tennessee will get somewhere around 220 passing yards this weekend.

Vanderbilt rushing

The Tennessee defense is allowing 159.5 rushing yards per game, while the Vanderbilt run game is averaging 162.8 yards per game. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is West Virginia, which is getting 162.0 yards per game on the ground, and they got 118 against Tennessee. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Auburn, which is averaging 167.2 rushing yards per game and got 126 against Tennessee.

So, it would appear that Tennessee’s rush defense, with all of its faults, has generally held similar teams to below their average on the ground.

The data from Vandy’s perspective is a mixed bag. On one hand, we’re most like Arkansas (giving up an average of 166.6 rushing yards per game) to them, and they put up 250 against the Hogs. On the other hand, the next closest comp for them is Kentucky (giving up 137.5), and they only got 68 against the Cats. We’re right in the middle.

Based on all of that, I’m guessing Vanderbilt will get about 140 rushing yards against Tennessee’s defense.

Vanderbilt passing

The Tennessee pass defense is allowing 209.8 passing yards per game. Vanderbilt is getting 228.6. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Georgia, which is getting 226.4 yards per game through the air, and they got 190 against Tennessee. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is South Carolina, which is averaging 262.0 passing yards per game and got 152 against Tennessee.

The Vols getting torched last week by Missouri and Drew Lock notwithstanding, I think their secondary is capable, so I’m going with Vanderbilt putting up about 180 passing yards against Tennessee.

Tennessee scoring

Tennessee is averaging 23.6 points per game, and Vanderbilt is allowing 26.2. This makes them nearly identical to Missouri, which is allowing 26.6 points per game. The Vols managed only 17 against the Tigers.

The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is West Virginia. They’re allowing 23.3 points per game, and Tennessee got only 14 against them.

As much as I hate to say it, it appears that the Tennessee offense has a ceiling on the number of points it can score. This feels strange, because at times the offense looks quite capable. But 11 games of data says Tennessee’s not likely to score more than its average of 24 points unless it’s playing ETSU or having an outlier game against Auburn.

And yet, it’s Vanderbilt, it’s the last game of the regular season, and there’s a bowl game on the line, so maybe that’s worth a few points.

My prediction is that Tennessee will put up around 20 against Vanderbilt.

Vanderbilt scoring

Tennessee is allowing 27.0 points per game. Vanderbilt is averaging 26.7.

The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Kentucky, which is averaging 23.9 points, and they got 7 against Tennessee. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Auburn, which is averaging 28.9 points and got 24 against Tennessee.

So, the Vols have done well to really well against opponents with the most similar scoring averages, which is obviously good news.

I’m going with Vanderbilt putting up about 21 points against Tennessee.

Comparison of predictions to other models and Vegas

The Vegas spread favors Vanderbilt by 3-3.5, with an over/under of 50.5-51, which converts to something like 27-24, Vandy.

Bill Connelly’s S&P+ says Tennessee has a 44% chance of winning and puts the score at Vanderbilt 31.6, Tennessee 29, a spread of -2.6.

ESPN’s FPI gives the Vols a 38.7% chance of winning.

Left alone, the SPM says Vanderbilt 20, Tennessee 17.8, a spread of -2.2.

After eye- and gut-adjustments, I’m going with Vanderbilt 21, Tennessee 20, a spread of -1. That’s an even closer prediction than the Tennessee-Kentucky game, so let’s hope for a similar result.

Thursday and Friday

There’s a fun weekend of football ahead to go along with your turkey and shopping. The Egg Bowl kicks Thanksgiving night, and Friday features a couple of Top 25 matchups, including one between former Vols’ opponent No. 13 West Virginia going up against No. 6 Oklahoma.

 

 

Gameday

 

The noon slate features a couple of appetizers, including the big rivalry between No. 4 Michigan and No. 10 Ohio State. There are also a couple of other games that include former Vols’ opponents in case you’re still interested in how the Bulldogs and Gators are doing.

Tennessee plays Vanderbilt at 4:00 on the SEC Network, so that’s your main event as a Vols fan. But the Iron Bowl is going on at the same time. Figure Alabama to roll, but rivalries can get funky, so keep an eye on it just in case.

In the evening, there are a couple of additional rivalry games featuring former Vols’ opponents Kentucky (against Louisville) and South Carolina (against Clemson.)

Full sortable and searchable college football TV schedule