Jackson Lowe a potential 2-for-1 signee (and other Monday recruiting notes)

With Tennessee losing four of their top Defensive Linemen from a unit that struggled with depth and, frankly, talent, adding a large group of talented DL in the class of 2019 is an absolute necessity.  And although Tennessee has six commitments from a high-quality group of Defensive Linemen/Pass-Rushers, there is still a need for more, and Coach Pruitt and Coach Rocker are recruiting as such.  However, the majority of the players on their DL board are committed elsewhere, which will make it that much more difficult to land another impact prospect at the position.  At the same time, one of its DL commitments – Alabama native Ledarrius Cox – has been flirting with Auburn for almost six months.

That said, there is a player on the roster who could make a positional move and give the Vols another talented lineman to work with.  That player is junior-to-be reserve TE Latrell Bumphus, a 6’3 250lb player who actually spent a few days in fall practice cross-training at DL after a high school career in West Tennessee spent as a two-way star.  Ideally Bumphus would be able to spend all of spring practice at DL to give him a jump start to being an immediate contributor there, but Tennessee will need to make sure they have enough bodies at the TE position before committing to that move.

The Vols will have solid starting TE Dominick Wood-Anderson returning at the position in 2019 along with, assuming nothing changes in their respective statuses, 2018 backups Eli Wolf and Austin Pope as well as part-time TE Jaquan Blakeley.  They will also bring on RS-Freshmen Jacob Warren, an intriguing prospect at 6’6 with some speed who needs to have used this season and the coming offseason to add weight and get more physical in the run game.

Currently Tennessee has two TE commitments, and one of them – Jackson Lowe – could be the key to allowing Bumpus to make that move to DL pending two important variables.  For one, while Lowe has been to a bunch of Tennessee home games this season, he’s been getting quite a bit of pressure from Florida to visit the Gators officially and has also been receiving some interest from Alabama after a really nice senior season.  It’s easy to forget because he committed to the Vols back in March, but the 6’5 235lb+ 4-star Lowe had legit offers from Clemson, UGA and Auburn when he committed.  He’s a really nice prospect at the position and arguably comes in as the most or second-most talented TE on the roster.  Almost as important when it comes to the immediate issue of moving Bumphus to DL is the chance that Lowe might be able to enroll early and go through spring practice with the Vols.  That’s unclear at the moment but is something he’s been working on.  Should Lowe be able to enroll in January that would give the Vols six TEs on the roster  – not counting Bumphus – and then 7 when fellow 2018 commitment Sean Brown enrolls in the summer.

Obviously the Vols need to hang on to Lowe, but should they do so, and if he gets in for spring practice, he will add not just another body at TE – and a big body with potential for immediate impact at that.  He would allow Tennessee to move Bumphus and give them a big body with potential for immediate impact on the DL as well.  That would effectively make Lowe a 2-for-1 signee and would make up for a potential miss on another DL in the 2019 class and/or allow the staff to avoid reaching on a less-talented DL just to get another body

Monday Recruiting Notes

  • The big news today is that Tyson Helton is now Tennessee’s former Offensive Coordinator and QB Coach. What that means for recruiting is unclear, but what we do know are two things:
    • Helton was recruiting current 2019 QB commitment Brian Maurer, who by all indications on his Twitter feed remains firm to the Vols and is still planning to sign next month and enroll in January
    • Helton was also recruiting 2020 QB prospect Harrison Bailey from Marietta, Georgia, who plans to announce his commitment to either Tennessee or Michigan this Thursday. Georgia’s 247 mods were hearing some UT buzz but it’s unclear how this news, and how fast Pruitt moves to replace Helton and with whom, will impact that commitment
  • Top RB target Eric Gray, fresh off winning his 3rd Tennessee Mr. Football award – the first ever three-time winner – is a Michigan commitment in name only. However, the Wolverines are not giving up and Coach Jim Harbaugh will make an in-home visit this week, as will Pruitt.  At the same time, Gray is still currently planning to take OVs to Ole Miss the 12/7 weekend and then to Alabama the 12/14 weekend of Dec. 14, with Texas A&M still fighting to get involved. So while insiders continue to feel confident that Gray is trending to the Vols this one is pretty clearly far from being a done deal
  • This article from Dawgnation.com is certainly not promising when it comes to Tennessee’s chances with 5-star WR Jadon Haselwood. Per the article Haselwood plans to sign in the early period and wait to announce at the Army Game.  Unfortunately for the Vols, he’s only got 1 OV left and his current plan is to take it to UGA the last weekend before the dead period (12/14). Obviously Tennessee could get him to Knoxville unofficially, but the buzz here seems to have really worn off from just a few weeks ago
  • Vols appear to have offered Dyersburg, TN LB Chris Russell, a former Memphis commitment. Russell had a big senior season and has garnered additional offers from Auburn, Arkansas, and Georgia Tech.  Right now he’s a February signee so the Vols have done the smart thing in offering and getting involved now.  He’s likely a secondary LB target and how serious Tennessee pursues him will seemingly depend on whether they and Owen Pappoe, if so whether they land another of their LB targets like Marshall or To’oto’to; and what happens at other positions
  • Speaking of Pappoe, interestingly, while the Tennessee staff will absolutely be in Grayson to see the trio of Vol commit Wanya Morris and top targets Pappoe and Kenyatta Watson, there have been no reported plans for the Auburn staff to visit their “commitment” in Pappoe. Obviously that can change, but there is a report of Auburn visiting Russell, so the absence of a report of a visit to Grayson seems at least notable

Dash to December – A Preview

Well, the 2018 season is over after a disappointing final two weeks.  Every Vol fan has known that the talent deficit was real, but in the last two games against Missouri and Vanderbilt – not exactly two powerhouses and frankly programs Tennessee should be better than just about every season – no longer are we talking about getting back to competing with the Alabamas and Georgias of the conference.  At this point it’s plain that, after a pretty successful 2018 recruiting class, Jeremy Pruitt needs to hit a homerun with his the 2019 class in order to simply be better than the Missouris and Vanderbilts and South Carolinas before we can start thinking about competing for championships again.  To that end, Tennessee currently has 20 commitments in a class that ranks in the Top 15 nationally, and the majority will sign with the Vols on December 19 during the Early Signing Period.  Barring attrition, which will surely happen one way or the other, that leaves roughly 5 more spots to fill.  In the coming days we’ll take a deeper look at remaining needs and the most likely players to fill those spots, but first we’ll start with a 30,000-foot preview of the weeks ahead between now – the start of the Contact Period – and the December signing period, with some notes at the end

December Signees – Current Commitments

As of now, 14 of Tennessee’s 20 current commitments plan to sign in December.  That will allow the staff to do the majority of their inhomes with this group to get them solidified and then immediately focus on the remaining commitments and targets – both for December and February- plus continue to lay the groundwork for the 2020 class

QB Brian Maurer

OL Wanya Morris

OL Jackson Lampley

OL Chris Akproroghene

TE Jackson Lowe

TE Sean Brown

WR Ramel Keyton

DL Darrel Middleton

DL Savion Williams

DL Roman Harrison

CB Tyus Fields

CB Warren Burrell

S Tank McCullough

S Anthony Harris

Early Enrollees – Current Commitments

Having at least the 8 current commitments enroll in January and be available for spring practice will be huge for these individuals as well as the program in the future and immediately in 2019.  Most if not all of them will be given the opportunity to earn significant playing time as they add talent and depth to the roster

QB Brian Maurer

OL Wanya Morris

OL Chris Akproroghene

TE Jackson Lowe

WR Ramel Keyton

DL Darrel Middleton

CB Tyus Fields

CB Warren Burrell

S Tank McCullough

February Signees – Current Commitments

From the list below, McBride, Beasley, Henry and Cox should not be considered 100% firm commitments, as they’ve each shown interest in other schools including Beasley and Henry taking official visits elsewhere.  It’s unclear at this point why Simmons and Clemons are not signing in December, but so far at least neither of them have publicly shown interest in other schools.  Simmons in particular is a prospect who I think can make an immediate impact on the DL, while Henry is a plug and play prospect at a position in dire need of more talent

OL Melvin McBride

ATH Aaron Beasley

LB Lakia Henry

DL Elijah Simmons

DL Ledarrius Cox

DL Jalil Clemons

Remaining Board – December Signees

RB Eric Gray (EE)

WR Jaden Haselwood (EE)

LB Owen Pappoe (EE)

LB Trezeman Marshall (EE)

LB Quarvaris Crouch (EE)

Rush End Niadre Zouzoua (EE)

DL Justin Eboigbe (EE)

DL Nick Figureoa (EE)

DB Kenyatta Watson (EE)

Remaining Board – February Signees

OL Darnell Wright

WR Khafre Brown

WR Xavier Leggette

RB Lee Witherspoon

LB Henry To’oto’to

DL Jaren Handy

DB Jammie Robinson

Postseason All-Star Games

The postseason bowl games in and of themselves are not particularly important, but the week of practice leading up to each of them is often a chance for top prospects to go head to head with better talent then they are used to seeing during the season as well as do peer recruiting, which will be especially important for the Vols.  It’s also a time where under the radar prospects in the Shrine Bowl and AL-MS game can show out and see their recruitments go to another level

NC-SC Shrine Bowl – December 15th

WR Khafre Brown

S Anthony Harris (Vol commit)

Alabama-Mississippi All-Star Game

DL Jalil Clemons (Vol commit)

DL Ledarrius Cox (Vol commit)

DL Jaren Handy (Auburn commit)

RB Lee Witherspoon

Under Armour All-America Bowl January 3rd

OL Wanya Morris (Vol commit)

OL Darnell Wright

LB Owen Pappoe

CB Kenyatta Watson

S Tank McCullough (Vol commit)

Army All-America Bowl January 5th

RB Eric Gray

WR Ramel Keyton (Vol commit)

WR Jaden Haselwood

WR Jaylen Ellis

LB Henry To’oto’to

LB Quarvaris Crouch

News and Notes from the weekend

  • There have already been some notable firings across the country (UNC, Texas Tech, among others), and the coaching carousel will continue and as such will shake up recruiting boards as it always does. That will have both positive and negative implications for the Vols and will be something to monitor
  • To that end, there are rumors swirling that Tennessee Offensive Coordinator Tyson Helton will not be back with the Vols next season. Although he is currently on the road recruiting for the Vols, those rumors will likely persist until either he does leave the staff or something very, very definitive happens the other way.  QB commitment Brian Maurer, who Central Florida has been quietly pushing for over the past month or so, would be one to watch if there is a change made
  • Alabama commitment and Vol DL target Justin Eboigbe was in Tuscaloosa on an unofficial visit this past weekend for the Iron Bowl two weeks after taking an unofficial visit to Knoxville for the win over Kentucky. He currently has an OV to Miami on the books for the 12/7 weekend, and his plan all along has been to take his Bama OV the 12/14 weekend which immediately precedes Signing Day, so if the Vols are going to get him back to campus for an OV it will have to be in the next two week
  • Another Iron Bowl visitor was Georgia commitment and bigtime Vol LB target Trezeman Marshall. This originally was going to be an OV but instead was an unofficial visit, meaning the Tide will likely get him back to Tuscaloosa again before Signing Day.  While the Dawgs and the Vols are thought to be his Top 2, Bama obviously is a real threat here
  • Speaking of the Iron Bowl, Auburn’s demolition at the hands of Alabama (join the club) finished off a tumultuous regular season for the Tigers than Tennessee (among others) have continued to try and take advantage of. Everyone knows that Tennessee is in prime position to flip Owen Pappoe from Auburn, but one Tiger commitment that the Vols have been quietly working on for months is DL Jaren Handy from Hattiesburg, MS.  Handy ws first an LSU commitment before flipping to Auburn and has been taking visits to other campuses all season.  He took an UV to Knoxville in the spring and on Sunday tweeted out that he was looking at “Tennessee, LSU, Bama, Florida, and Ole Miss (maybe).”  Look for the Vols to try and get the February signee back on campus for an OV sometime after the early signing period depending on how things go with the rest of the class

GRT Guessing Game Final Results: The dramatic finish

Another rough week and a downpour of blue shells results in a dramatic conclusion to the 2018 Gameday on Rocky Top Guessing Game.

Here’s the play-by-play for this week.

Round 1

Q: Which team rushes for more net yards? (15-30 points available)

A: Tennessee (15 points) (103 for UT to 100 for Vandy)

The following players got this right: Will Shelton, Mitchell K, daetilus, Mariettavol, Joel Hollingsworth, Harley, Randy Holtzclaw, Sam Hensley, Evan, and Isaac Bishop.

Mushrooms (10 points): Displaced_Vol_Fan and Isaac Bishop

Bananas (-10 points): Joel Hollingsworth and JWheel101

Blue shells and bolts: 

  • Blue Shell #7 blows up Will Shelton, who loses 10 points.
  • Blue Shell #8 Counter: 1
  • Blue Shell #9 Counter: 2
  • Blue Shell #10 Counter: 3
  • Blue Shell #11 Counter: 4
  • No new bolts or blue shells

Top 10 after Round 1:

  1. Displaced_Vol_Fan 122
  2. Mitchell K 107
  3. Will Shelton 106.5
  4. daetilus 102
  5. cscott95 95
  6. Mariettavol 94
  7. Harley 91.5
  8. Randy Holtzclaw 89
  9. jfarrar90 84
  10. Joel Hollingsworth 78.5

In case anyone is wondering, standings are re-sorted after the points for the questions are awarded, and then all of the specials are administered at based on the standings at that point.

Round 2

Q: Who leads at the half? (15-30 points available)

A: Vanderbilt (15 points)

Four players got this right: jfarrar90, Jayyyy, JWheel101, and LTVol99.

Mushrooms (10 points): Joel Hollingsworth and Isaac Bishop

Bananas (-10 points): Mariettavol and Harley

Blue shells and bolts: 

  • Blue Shell #8 blows up Displaced_Vol_Fan, who loses 10 points.
  • Blue Shell #9 Counter: 1
  • Blue Shell #10 Counter: 2
  • Blue Shell #11 Counter: 3
  • No new bolts or blue shells

Top 10 after Round 2:

  1. Displaced_Vol_Fan 112
  2. Mitchell K 107
  3. Will Shelton 106.5
  4. daetilus 102
  5. jfarrar90 99
  6. cscott95 95
  7. Randy Holtzclaw 89
  8. Jayyyy 88.5
  9. Joel Hollingsworth 88.5
  10. Mariettavol 84

Round 3

Q: Which team scores 20 points or more? (15 – 20 points available)

A: Only Vanderbilt (20 points)

Only JWheel101 got this right.

Mushrooms (10 points): daetilus and Sam Hensley

Bananas (-10 points): Displaced_Vol_Fan and daetilus

Blue shells and bolts: 

  • Blue Shell #9 blows up Displaced_Vol_Fan, who loses another 10 points.
  • Blue Shell #10 Counter: 1
  • Blue Shell #11 Counter: 2
  • No new bolts or blue shells

So, Mitchell K squeaks across the finish line just a nose ahead of Will Shelton to take the cup in the 2018 Gameday on Rocky Top Guessing Game.

Thanks to everyone for playing.

Final Standings

Rank Player Points
1 Mitchell K 107
2 Will Shelton 106.5
3 daetilus 102
4 jfarrar90 99
5 cscott95 95
6 Displaced_Vol_Fan 92
7 Randy Holtzclaw 89
8 Joel Hollingsworth 88.5
9 Jayyyy 88.5
10 JWheel101 88.5
11 Mariettavol 84
12 Isaac Bishop 83.5
13 Sam Hensley 83
14 Harley 81.5
15 Evan 64
16 Raven17 62.5
17 LTVol99 51.5
18 Gavin Driskill 46
19 Jrstep 45
20 HT 38
21 chadvolfan 25
22 Richard 15
23 Scott Jackson 5
24 Bulldog85 4
25 Andrew Cooper 0
26 brandon galford 0
27 Pete -5
28 rdbulet96 -5
29 Rtbrwb66 -5

UNDirish60 wins Week 13 of the 2018 Gameday on Rocky Top Pick ‘Em Contest

Congratulations to UNDirish60, who finished first this week in the Gameday on Rocky Top Pick ‘Em contest with a record of 18-2 and 200 confidence points. He or she gets a Gameday on Rocky Top t-shirt from our custom tee store, Web Community Tees.

UNDirish60, watch for a message from me (it will come through the Fun Office Pools system) about how to claim your prize.

Gameday on Rocky Top Logo Tee

 

Here are the full results for last week:

Rank Selection Name W-L Pts Tie Breaker Game (13-38)
1 UNDirish60 18-2 200 19-24
2 Jahiegel 17-3 197 23-27
3 Fred4UT 16-4 193 24-20
4 wedflatrock 16-4 192 17-21
5 LuckyGuess 16-4 191 17-24**
5 Dylan pickle 16-4 191 10-21
5 jstorie1 16-4 191 24-20
8 birdjam 16-4 190 24-27
9 Volfan2002 15-5 188 31-21**
9 BZACHARY 17-3 188 0-0
11 jfarrar90 16-4 187 24-27**
11 C_hawkfan 16-4 187 23-25
11 tcarroll90 15-5 187 28-20
14 spartans100 16-4 184 27-34
15 UTSeven 14-6 183 27-17
16 Anaconda 15-5 182 23-26**
16 chuckiepoo 14-6 182 27-20
16 dgibbs 14-6 182 27-17
19 ChuckieTVol 13-7 179 27-24**
19 Phonies 14-6 179 270-30
21 mmmjtx 15-5 178 17-34**
21 TennRebel 16-4 178 17-24
21 Joel @ GRT 14-6 178 20-21
21 PAVolFan 15-5 178 33-24
25 cnyvol 13-7 177 30-27**
25 Displaced_Vol_Fan 13-7 177 24-21
27 mmb61 15-5 176 17-35**
27 mariettavol 14-6 176 32-23
27 Timbuktu126 16-4 176 34-10
27 Gman15 14-6 176 41-31
31 chatty daddy 14-6 175 21-31
32 GeorgeMonkey 12-8 174 28-24
33 tpi 16-4 173 0-0
34 boro wvvol 13-7 172 31-28
35 ltvol99 14-6 169 24-21**
35 Jayyyy 14-6 169 24-20
35 daetilus 15-5 169 27-17
38 Rossboro 13-7 168 0-0
39 DinnerJacket 13-7 167 24-22**
39 Fightin Walking Horses 15-5 167 24-21
41 ctull 14-6 165 21-28**
41 Bulldog 85 11-9 165 28-24
43 Rocky4 13-7 164 31-24
44 Raven17 14-6 163 31-28
45 MariettaVol1 14-6 162 25-15**
45 Will Shelton 12-8 162 20-16
47 KeepsCornInAJar 13-7 160 24-21
48 alanmar 15-5 159 27-31
49 crafdog 15-5 158 31-27
50 ga26engr 12-8 154 3-28
51 ddayvolsfan 13-7 152 27-24
52 IndyVolFan 13-7 144 24-17
53 JLPasour 10-10 143 28-14
54 tbone9591 13-7 142 28-17
55 Jrstep 14-6 141 20-14**
55 Joelarbear 12-8 141 21-7
57 Keep on truckin’ 13-7 140 23-21
58 PensacolaVolFan 12-8 136 38-17
59 RockyPopPicks 11-9 132 35-17
60 vols95 9-11 130 0-0
61 rsbrooks25 13-7 125 23-21
62 TennVol95 in 3D! 0-20 124 0-0**
62 VandyVol 0-20 124 -
62 Knottfair 0-20 124 -
62 Brandon88 0-20 124 -
62 War Birds 0-20 124 -
62 JohnCoctostan 0-20 124 -
62 BallerVawl 0-20 124 -
62 edgarmsmith 0-20 124 -
62 Pat OMalley 0-20 124 -
62 Willewillm 0-20 124 -
62 RockyTop5 0-20 124 -
62 VillaVol 0-20 124 -
62 utvol2 0-20 124 -
62 aquasox 0-20 124 -
62 RandyH112 0-20 124 -
62 ThePowerT 0-20 124 -
62 Techboy 0-20 124 -
62 BlountVols 0-20 124 -
62 King Nothing 0-20 124 -
62 Nick_Drake87 0-20 124 -
62 waltsspac 0-20 124 -
62 Orange Swarm 0-20 124 -
62 rockytopinky 0-20 124 -
62 BirdDawg55 0-20 124 -
62 patmd 0-20 124 -
62 tallahasseevol 0-20 124 -
62 Dmorton 0-20 124 -
62 IBleedVolOrange 0-20 124 -
62 CajunVol 0-20 124 -
62 Aaron Birkholz 0-20 124 -
62 OriginalVol1814 0-20 124 -
62 JWaldroop 0-20 124 -
62 Sam 0-20 124 -
62 DMike 0-20 124 -
62 Smokin Turkeys 0-20 124 -
62 I guess Randy Sanders was good after all 0-20 124 -

 

Jahiegel remains in the lead in the season standings. Here are the complete standings after Week 13:

Rank Player W/L Points
1 Jahiegel 183-74 2084
2 Volfan2002 179-78 2064
3 wedflatrock 181-76 2063
4 birdjam 175-82 2043
5 C_hawkfan 181-76 2042
6 PAVolFan 175-82 2039
7 GeorgeMonkey 176-81 2038
8 spartans100 176-81 2029
9 BZACHARY 178-79 2028
10 LuckyGuess 171-86 2024
11 cnyvol 165-92 2016
12 Fred4UT 174-83 2014
13 Bulldog 85 171-86 2003
14 UNDirish60 177-80 2001
15 mmb61 169-88 1991
16 Displaced_Vol_Fan 168-89 1989
17 UTSeven 160-97 1980
18 jfarrar90 166-91 1975
19 chuckiepoo 167-90 1967
20 ChuckieTVol 159-98 1964
21 alanmar 176-81 1963
22 mmmjtx 170-87 1954
22 TennRebel 176-81 1954
24 boro wvvol 170-87 1947
24 Will Shelton 157-100 1947
26 JLPasour 169-88 1945
27 Fightin Walking Horses 173-84 1943
28 Rossboro 164-93 1942
29 ctull 172-85 1936
30 jstorie1 168-89 1928
31 RockyTop5 161-96 1925
32 dgibbs 153-104 1923
33 Anaconda 171-86 1916
34 Rocky4 167-90 1905
35 chatty daddy 167-90 1903
36 Joel @ GRT 164-93 1897
37 DinnerJacket 167-90 1895
38 VillaVol 147-110 1887
39 MariettaVol1 160-97 1884
39 tpi 174-83 1884
39 Phonies 156-101 1884
42 tcarroll90 157-100 1879
43 Joelarbear 160-97 1871
44 Raven17 157-100 1869
45 mariettavol 149-108 1868
46 Dylan pickle 183-74 1866
47 Jayyyy 152-105 1856
48 tbone9591 159-98 1847
49 vols95 154-103 1843
50 KeepsCornInAJar 161-96 1837
51 crafdog 172-85 1821
52 daetilus 144-113 1810
53 RockyPopPicks 156-101 1804
54 Timbuktu126 167-90 1791
54 Willewillm 122-135 1791
56 ddayvolsfan 165-92 1788
57 Knottfair 116-141 1787
58 BlountVols 137-120 1766
59 Keep on truckin 158-99 1765
60 Sam 121-136 1763
61 Gman15 150-107 1762
62 rsbrooks25 160-97 1760
63 ga26engr 153-104 1742
64 ThePowerT 100-157 1713
65 ltvol99 146-111 1712
66 DMike 94-163 1710
66 RandyH112 107-150 1710
68 Jrstep 136-121 1705
69 waltsspac 118-139 1683
70 edgarmsmith 102-155 1641
71 Nick_Drake87 77-180 1634
72 King Nothing 131-126 1620
73 Brandon88 72-185 1594
74 aquasox 90-167 1590
75 IndyVolFan 136-121 1582
76 TennVol95 in 3D! 114-143 1574
77 Orange Swarm 73-184 1569
77 JWaldroop 61-196 1569
79 patmd 117-140 1568
80 rockytopinky 80-177 1556
81 Dmorton 100-157 1542
82 PensacolaVolFan 120-137 1489
83 OriginalVol1814 47-210 1480
84 BallerVawl 58-199 1450
85 tallahasseevol 49-208 1439
86 VandyVol 34-223 1434
87 CajunVol 56-201 1431
88 Techboy 70-187 1418
89 War Birds 49-208 1409
90 Smokin Turkeys 22-235 1401
91 Pat OMalley 31-226 1343
92 Aaron Birkholz 10-247 1324
93 utvol2 11-246 1323
94 BirdDawg55 45-212 1318
95 IBleedVolOrange 10-247 1286
96 JohnCoctostan 0-257 1272
96 I guess Randy Sanders was good after all 0-257 1272

Your Gameday Gameplan: Tennessee-Vanderbilt

It’s Gameday on Rocky Top, with the 5-6 (2-5) Tennessee Vols and the 5-6 (2-5) Vanderbilt Commodores both playing for bowl eligibility. Here’s the Gameday Gameplan for Vols fans. Where and when to find the Vols game on TV, what other games to watch, and what to listen to and read as you wait for kickoff.

When is the Vols game, and what TV channel is it on?

Here are the particulars for today’s Tennessee game:

The best other games for Vols fans to watch today

Here’s our list of games to watch today, curated just for Vols fans:

Saturday, November 24, 2018
Away Home Time TV How Why
NOON SLATE
No. 4 Michigan No. 10 Ohio State 12:00 PM FOX Channel Hop Top 25 Matchup
Georgia Tech No. 5 Georgia 12:00 PM SECN, WatchESPN Channel Hop Past Opponent
No. 11 Florida Florida State 12:00 PM ABC, WatchESPN Channel Hop Past Opponent
AFTERNOON SLATE
Auburn No. 1 Alabama 3:30 PM CBS Channel Hop Top 25 Team
Tennessee Vanderbilt 4:00 PM SECN, WatchESPN Live Go Vols!
EVENING SLATE
No. 15 Kentucky Louisville 7:00 PM ESPN2, WatchESPN Channel Hop Past Opponent
South Carolina No. 2 Clemson 7:00 PM ESPN, WatchESPN Channel Hop Past Opponent
No. 7 LSU No. 22 Texas A&M 7:30 PM SECN, WatchESPN Channel Hop Top 25 Matchup

 

And here’s a searchable version of the entire college football TV schedule for the day:

Date Away Home Time TV
Thu Nov 22 Colorado State Air Force 3:30 PM CBSSN
Thu Nov 22 No. 18 Mississippi State Ole Miss 7:30 PM ESPN, WatchESPN
Fri Nov 23 No. 14 Texas Kansas 12:00 PM FS1
Fri Nov 23 Akron Ohio 12:00 PM CBSSN
Fri Nov 23 Buffalo Bowling Green 12:00 PM ESPNU, WatchESPN
Fri Nov 23 Central Michigan Toledo 12:00 PM ESPN3
Fri Nov 23 Eastern Michigan Kent State 12:00 PM ESPN3
Fri Nov 23 Houston Memphis 12:00 PM ABC, WatchESPN
Fri Nov 23 Nebraska Iowa 12:00 PM FOX
Fri Nov 23 Arkansas Missouri 2:30 PM CBS
Fri Nov 23 Coastal Carolina South Alabama 3:00 PM ESPN+
Fri Nov 23 East Carolina Cincinnati 3:30 PM CBSSN
Fri Nov 23 Virginia Virginia Tech 3:30 PM ABC, WatchESPN
Fri Nov 23 Oregon Oregon State 4:00 PM FS1
Fri Nov 23 No. 9 UCF South Florida 4:15 PM ESPN, WatchESPN
Fri Nov 23 No. 6 Oklahoma No. 13 West Virginia 8:00 PM ESPN, WatchESPN
Fri Nov 23 No. 16 Washington No. 8 Washington State 8:30 PM FOX
Sat Nov 24 No. 4 Michigan No. 10 Ohio State 12:00 PM FOX
Sat Nov 24 Georgia Tech No. 5 Georgia 12:00 PM SECN, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 24 No. 11 Florida Florida State 12:00 PM ABC, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 24 No. 20 Syracuse Boston College 12:00 PM ESPN, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 24 Baylor Texas Tech 12:00 PM FS1
Sat Nov 24 Marshall Florida Intl 12:00 PM
Sat Nov 24 Navy Tulane 12:00 PM ESPNU, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 24 Purdue Indiana 12:00 PM ESPN2, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 24 Western Kentucky Louisiana Tech 12:00 PM CBSSN
Sat Nov 24 NC State North Carolina 12:20 PM ACCNE, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 24 Wake Forest Duke 12:30 PM ACCNE, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 24 Old Dominion Rice 1:00 PM ESPN+
Sat Nov 24 Georgia Southern Georgia State 2:00 PM ESPN+
Sat Nov 24 New Mexico State Liberty 2:00 PM ESPN3
Sat Nov 24 Troy Appalachian State 2:30 PM ESPN+
Sat Nov 24 Wyoming New Mexico 2:30 PM
Sat Nov 24 Louisiana UL Monroe 3:00 PM ESPN+
Sat Nov 24 Southern Mississippi UTEP 3:00 PM ESPN+
Sat Nov 24 Stanford UCLA 3:00 PM PAC12
Sat Nov 24 UAB Middle Tennessee 3:00 PM ESPN3
Sat Nov 24 Auburn No. 1 Alabama 3:30 PM CBS
Sat Nov 24 Illinois No. 19 Northwestern 3:30 PM BTN
Sat Nov 24 Maryland No. 12 Penn State 3:30 PM ABC, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 24 No. 24 Pittsburgh Miami 3:30 PM ESPN, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 24 Arizona State Arizona 3:30 PM FS1
Sat Nov 24 Minnesota Wisconsin 3:30 PM ESPN2, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 24 SMU Tulsa 3:30 PM CBSSN
Sat Nov 24 Temple UConn 3:30 PM ESPNU, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 24 Tennessee Vanderbilt 4:00 PM SECN, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 24 Arkansas State Texas State 4:00 PM ESPN3
Sat Nov 24 Rutgers Michigan State 4:00 PM FOX
Sat Nov 24 Charlotte Florida Atlantic 6:00 PM
Sat Nov 24 Kansas State No. 25 Iowa State 7:00 PM FS1
Sat Nov 24 No. 15 Kentucky Louisville 7:00 PM ESPN2, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 24 South Carolina No. 2 Clemson 7:00 PM ESPN, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 24 Colorado California 7:00 PM PAC12
Sat Nov 24 North Texas UTSA 7:00 PM ESPN+
Sat Nov 24 San Jose State Fresno State 7:00 PM ESPNU, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 24 No. 7 LSU No. 22 Texas A&M 7:30 PM SECN, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 24 No. 3 Notre Dame USC 8:00 PM ABC, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 24 Oklahoma State TCU 8:00 PM FOX
Sat Nov 24 Nevada UNLV 9:30 PM CBSSN
Sat Nov 24 BYU No. 17 Utah 10:00 PM FS1
Sat Nov 24 No. 21 Utah State No. 23 Boise State 10:15 PM ESPN, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 24 Hawai'i San Diego State 10:30 PM ESPNU, WatchESPN

 

GRT games and contests

While you’re waiting for the games to begin, make sure that you submit your answers to the GRT Guessing Game questions and update your picks for the GRT Pick ‘Em.

GRT game-week audio

Here’s Will’s regular Friday appearance with Josh Ward and Will West on WNML’s Sports 180:

Pre-game prep

And to catch up on your pre-game reading, have a look at our game preview posts from earlier this week:

Go Vols!

Gameday on Rocky Top Guessing Game: Vanderbilt edition

It’s time for this week’s edition of the GRT Guessing Game. If you are new here and have no idea what this is all about, you can find out everything you need to know here. Last week’s results are here.

Let’sa go!

  1. Submit your answers to our three questions below.
  2. Click the “Submit” button.
  3. Copy and paste your answers in the comments below.

Good luck!

Tennessee vs Vanderbilt: The Measuring Stick

Tennessee is playing for bowl eligibility on Saturday, but also to even its record this decade. The Vols are 55-56 since 2010. A win would tie them with Ole Miss and Arkansas for the decade as the only SEC teams with a better winning percentage than the usual basement dwellers from Kentucky and Vanderbilt. Kentucky is obviously up this year, but still trails over the decade at 47-63. Vanderbilt sits at 49-62.

But head-to-head, the Vols and Dores have split the decade so far. And more often than not, what Tennessee has done against the Commodores has played a significant role in the success or failure of their season. It’s not the measuring stick we envisioned at the start of the decade. The Vols can take an important step in leveling up by getting past the Commodores tomorrow.

Here’s a look back at how the last eight meetings have defined Tennessee’s season:

2010: At 4-6, Tyler Bray made his third start and led the Vols to a 24-10 win in Nashville to keep bowl eligibility alive. The Vols beat Kentucky the following week for a successful end to Derek Dooley’s first regular season.

2011: This decade is full of wildly entertaining games in the moment that didn’t stand the test of time because the season was ultimately unsuccessful. One of the best examples: after Tyler Bray missed five games with a broken thumb, he led the 4-6 Vols to a 14-7 halftime lead over a 5-5 James Franklin squad. But a 100-yard pick six tied the score, then Vandy took the lead with 12 minutes to play. A 13-play drive was capped with a fourth-and-goal touchdown pass to Da’Rick Rogers, setting the stage for overtime. Eric Gordon pick-sixed Jordan Rodgers (after a lengthy review) for the win. It was a great step forward in Bray’s return, and positioned Dooley to earn bowl eligibility again…and then the Vols lost at Kentucky.

2012: Dooley’s final game as head coach was a 41-18 beat down from Franklin and the Commodores. His fate was likely already sealed and Tennessee fans were simply interested in moving on. But while losing to Vanderbilt is uncomfortably common now, this loss was the first in the series since 2005 and the second since 1982, and the margin was jarring.

2013: Butch Jones came to his first Vanderbilt game in the exact position Jeremy Pruitt finds himself in now. A Josh Dobbs you’d never recognize now went 11-of-19 for 53 yards, the Vols failed to convert a faked field goal up 10-7 with 12 minutes to play, and after a fourth-and-one stop was overturned, Patton Robinette capped a 12-play, 92-yard drive with a touchdown with 16 seconds to play. It cost the Vols bowl eligibility and dampened some of the good memories of a near miss vs Georgia and a win over #4 South Carolina.

2014: Back in the same boat at 5-6, this time the Vols made it work. An 11-play, 94-yard third quarter drive put Tennessee in front 17-10, and a late score from Dobbs pushed the margin to 24-10 before a Vanderbilt score in the final seconds made the final margin 24-17. The Vols earned bowl eligibility for the first time in three years, and dominated Iowa in Jacksonville.

2015: The only business-as-usual Tennessee-Vanderbilt game of the decade. The Vols won 53-28 over a 4-7 Vanderbilt team behind 331 rushing yards, carrying Tennessee to the Outback Bowl.

2016: The most costly of any of these losses. With a clear path to the New Year’s Six, Tennessee led 34-24 with four minutes to play in the third quarter. From there: Vanderbilt touchdown, Tennessee fumble, Vanderbilt touchdown, Tennessee missed field goal, Vanderbilt touchdown, Tennessee turnover on downs. An already contentious season for Butch Jones took a hard turn into disappointment, setting the stage for his exit the following season.

2017: Jones was out, but the Vols still had a chance to avoid the first 4-8 season in program history. It was not to be: despite a 14-7 lead and trailing only 21-17 with five minutes to play in the third quarter, the defense again surrendered three straight touchdowns down the stretch. Vanderbilt finished 5-7, the Vols 4-8.

Four wins, four losses. The 2011 win was lost in the disaster in Lexington the following week, but I’d say you can draw a straight line between relatively successful regular seasons in 2010, 2014, and 2015 and beating the Commodores. A regular season that might feel more successful than any since 2010 will turn on what the Vols do against Vanderbilt one more time tomorrow.

 

Locks & Keys Week 13: Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt; the Importance of One

Back during Butch Jones’ first year in Knoxville in 2013, the Vols entered the penultimate game of the season against Vanderbilt needing a win out against the Commodores and Kentucky Wildcats to make a bowl game.

UT lost 14-10 in a hapless showing, and as I was walking out of Neyland Stadium, fans grumbled, and I heard the first questions about whether or not the first-year Tennessee coach could get the job done.

As we all know now, he couldn’t. And while I don’t know how fair it is to begin to question at that early juncture of the season, it’s something Jeremy Pruitt will hear a little if the Vols leave Nashville with a loss this season in a winner-take-all (some?) game this weekend.

Personally, I figured this season would be on the brink of 6-6 or 5-7 all year, so I’m going to dial back the criticism. The roster was in terrible shape this year, and though the lack of talent and consistency have killed UT, it’s important to keep things in perspective. Clay Travis reminded us of that this week:

Of course, there’s never an excuse when you’re Tennessee to lose to Vanderbilt. But the harrowing fact is, regardless of how the Vols have beaten the Commodores in recruiting classes, VU has developed better recently. They have a senior starting quarterback in Kyle Shurmur, some playmakers on offense [looking at you, Ke’Shawn Vaughn] and arguably a better defense than Mizzou. This is not a great matchup for Tennessee.

This season has been equal parts hopeful and frustrating. The game to look back on that should sting is the South Carolina second-half collapse. Win that, and this game is virtually meaningless. Instead, this one means a good bit to Pruitt and VU coach Derek Mason.

For Pruitt, though, this is uncharted waters, as he mentioned this week. He’s used to this last game meaning something, and 6-6 — you can just tell when he talks — is not something he’s trumpeting in the least. He probably wants this season to just be over so he can trade 25 players for those of his own, but he knows the value of winning for his young guys is the extra 15 practices.

That’s the most important element of this game for him. For us, it’s not wanting to lose to Vanderbilt again, which has quite frankly owned us recently. Those words taste bitter, but they’re true.

KEYS

Tying things together

I have this vision of Tennessee celebrating at Vanderbilt Stadium and Ty Chandler being hailed as the hero, going home and having one of the biggest games of his two-year college career.

UT needs it to happen, but in order for it to, the offensive line must play better than it has at any point this season. Vanderbilt’s rush defense is 13th in the league, allowing 195 yards per game. The Vols have to run the ball, and they have to get Chandler touches in space, whether that be rushing to the edge or catching passes.

Saturday has to be Ty’s game, and the offensive line needs to make sure he can take it and run with it. If he stars, the Vols win.

Play JG

The reason Tennessee lost against Missouri last week was not that Jarrett Guarantano went out early in the first quarter with a head injury, but it sure didn’t help.

Again, that’s an indictment of an awful offensive line that needs to drastically improve in this offseason, or position coach Will Friend needs to be fired. It’s been that bad, and there’s been very little glimmers of improvement. The O-line finally got JG hurt after all the shots he’s taken this year, and it crushed UT’s offensive hopes.

Hopefully, JG can go this weekend, the line can keep his jersey relatively clean. The Vols need to hit a few of their customary shots downfield, and Guarantano’s health entering the game and sustained throughout are paramount to the Vols making enough offensive plays to win.

Shake Shurmur

Last weekend, Tennessee failed to get any pressure at all on Mizzou veteran quarterback Drew Lock thanks to a sturdy Tigers offensive line, and Lock sat back there in the pocket and shredded UT’s secondary with as much time as he needed. He delivered precision pass after precision pass in a resume game for the NFL. His numbers would have been much better had the Tigers not dropped a pair of deep balls.

Shurmur is no Lock, but he’s a capable veteran quarterback who has thrown a lot of SEC passes and had a ton of success against the Vols. If UT can’t get to him, he will torch Tennessee’s young secondary, and make Alontae Taylor and Bryce Thompson look bad. Darrell Taylor and Co. must find a way to generate a pass rush.

And the young cornerbacks need to play better than they did a week ago, too.

Steal points

Speaking of those young DBs, it’s about time for Alontae Taylor to make his freshman season signature play, isn’t it? He’s had a really strong year, even though he was embarrassed a little a week ago against Missouri. He needs to play for a little pride this week and rebound with a big interception or forced fumble.

Tennessee needs to generate a couple of turnovers deep in Vanderbilt territory and parlay them into extra points. I’m not sure UT can win straight-up without forcing the Commodores into some miscues. This is a very important element of Saturday’s game.

No freebies

On the flip side of that, the margin for error for this team is zero. A week ago, the Vols were driving for what could have been a late first-half touchdown that could have cut the Mizzou lead to 19-17. Instead, Keller Chryst threw a “bad pass” according to his coach, that was picked off, and the Tigers instead turned it into a touchdown and a 26-10 halftime advantage.

That was a soul-crushing, momentum-seizing play.

In the third quarter, Carlin Fils-aime’s fumble was picked up and returned for a scoop-and-score, and the rout was on. That’s essentially a 21- or possibly even 28-point swing. The Vols cannot do that. No team can, but especially not one as slim on talent as Tennessee.

They’ve got to cut out mistakes, or they’ll lose.

Prediction: Tennessee always beats Vanderbilt, right? Well, that’s no longer the case, now, is it? We’ve endured some embarrassing years, and the biggest disappointments in them all are the ownership of UT by South Carolina and the former cupcake in Nashville.

This is not a good Vanderbilt team. It may be better than the Vols, but that doesn’t mean it’s a good team. If UT loses, there needs to be plenty of grumbles, and it will make Pruitt’s job on the recruiting trail a little harder. I don’t know that I fully believe it, but because I can’t bear the thought of losing again, I’m taking the Vols in a close one.

Vols win 27-24

LOCKS

On the way to the Tennessee game last weekend, I was bragging to my dad about how all these big-wig college football reporters’ records ATS this year were like 10 games under .500, and how even though I was beating myself up over being two games in the black, I was pretty strong.

Then last week happened, and I did the equivalent of the Vols defense.

The college football world threw up a 50-burger on me. I went 1-6, easily the worst showing of the season to fall to 37-40 with just one week to go. That’s incredibly disappointing. Much like the Vols, I fell on my face. Now, I’ve got to rally with everybody against me to come up mediocre.

The only game I won was Nebraska +1.5 against Michigan State. Syracuse pooped the bed against Notre Dame, Texas Tech’s worst performance of the season came against Kansas State, we all know what happened with UT, West Virginia lost outright to Oklahoma State, Florida State upset Boston College and Vanderbilt actually beat Ole Miss. There it is – 1-6. *Shudder*.

Here’s hoping for a 5-2 record and a solid season with a push…

  1. Memphis and Houston under 76: It’s normally not smart to bet the under in Memphis games, but I’m not sure the Cougars can hold up their end of the scoreboard without D’Eriq King. I think this one scrapes by.
  2. Syracuse +6.5 over Boston College: I hate picking games during rivalry week because of all the close lines, but this is one of those I can’t believe I’m getting points in. I think the Orange win outright.
  3. Michigan and Ohio State under 57: I’m staying away from the line in the Big Game, but I love Michigan’s defense, and I think this number is way, way too high.
  4. Pittsburgh +4 over Miami: It’s not often Vegas hasn’t caught up to a team at this point in the season, but that’s the case with the Panthers, who are still getting disrespected by the oddsmakers.
  5. LSU +3 over Texas A&M: This is the third game where I’m stunned I’m getting points. LSU is too polished on defense to let this game slip by.
  6. Oklahoma State -5 over TCU: Could this be a letdown game? Sure. The Cowboys have played their best against the best competition this year, and now they’re going up against one of the best defenses in the Big 12. But they’ll do enough to cover this slight number.
  7. Notre Dame -11.5 over USC: Things are going downhill fast in L.A. This will be Clay Helton’s last game; I’ve learned by lesson on the Irish after last week.

Tennessee vs Kansas: Here’s Our Chance

One year ago today, Tennessee beat #18 Purdue in the Battle 4 Atlantis. It was, at the time, an important win to get Tennessee a shot at Villanova and bolster their RPI for what we thought would be a run at the bubble.

One year later, #5 Tennessee will face #2 Kansas on Friday night.

There’s more, of course: #3 Gonzaga’s win over #1 Duke could propel the Bulldogs to the top of the polls, and they’ll face the Vols on December 9. They’ve got work to do between now and then, dates with Creighton and Washington. The Vols shouldn’t be threatened by Eastern Kentucky and Texas A&M Corpus Christi. There’s a chance Gonzaga and Tennessee could meet as #1 and #2.

All that’s down the road. The opportunity with Kansas is enough for one day.

The difference in Tennessee then and now was particularly striking against Louisville. The Vols, once the hunters, watched Louisville play that role against them really well for most of the game. Jeff Greer’s game story from The Athletic speaks of the Cardinals in language that fit Tennessee for years, and speaks of the Vols in terms we haven’t heard since Bruce Pearl’s days. Louisville was within one with less than nine minutes to play.

And then the Vols unleashed the kind of run a Top 5 team makes. A 14-0 run over the span of four minutes included only one point from Grant Williams, who finished with 24 total. Admiral Schofield did plenty of damage in that span though, finishing with 20 points. The Vols survived 11 Louisville threes, missed nine free throws, and still won by 11 while scoring 92 points. Through increasing degrees of difficulty, the Vols have ultimately handled Louisiana, Georgia Tech, and Louisville. Now it’s the boss level.

The Jayhawks beat Duke in the Elite Eight last year before falling to Villanova in the Final Four. Seven-footer Udoka Azubuike is back, currently 10th in the KenPom Player of the Year standings. Dedric Lawson, a 6’9″ Memphis transfer, is fourth.

Grant Williams is first.

The first question for any Vol opponent – “Does this team have anyone who can guard Grant Williams?” – should be an affirmative this time. Louisville had no answers, but I’d expect more from the Jayhawks. Azubuike sends back 12.8% of the shots he faces, and Lawson will bang in there as well. He was a volume scorer at Memphis, finishing in the top six among AAC players in his percentage of total team shots taken in both 2016 and 2017. That shouldn’t be as necessary at Kansas, but he’s averaging 16.3 points and 9.8 rebounds in the early going. Lagerald Vick leads the team in scoring with 20.8 points in 35.3 minutes, and is a scorching 18-of-29 from the arc so far this year.

Kansas has been giving up a really high percentage from the arc and winning anyway. Michigan State hit 12-of-23 (53.3%), and Marquette was 14-of-31 (45.2%). Neither was enough against the Jayhawks: the Spartans were undone by 18 turnovers, Marquette by only attempting five free throws. And on the other end, Kansas has shot well too: 10-of-23 (43.5%) against Michigan State, 5-of-10 (50%) last night, plus 12-of-19 (63.2%) against Vermont. And they don’t turn it over, with just 48 in four games despite playing a Top 50 pace.

The Jayhawks also take away almost any opportunity for an offensive rebound. In four games they’ve only surrendered 27 total offensive boards; that’s the eighth best percentage in the country. The Vols will need to be good on their first shot.

The good news: the Vols are once again one of the best teams in the nation in creating good shots via assist percentage. It’s currently at 70.1%, fourth in the nation, leading to the Vols shooting 51.7% from the floor, 18th nationally in the early going. In better news, the Vols are shooting 57.6% from two, 52nd nationally. Last year: 47.3%, 293rd nationally. It’s early. But shooting better from inside the arc was the most obvious place the Vols could improve from last year, and so far, so good.

They’ll need to be good against Kansas. Tennessee has lived on offensive rebounds in the past, but that may be a luxury they can’t afford against the Jayhawks. This could be an excellent test of how much Tennessee’s best basketball is worth; they should need every bit of it to win, but the prize for winning could be a shot at number one.

It’s the late shift: 9:00 PM ET, ESPN2. Go Vols.

 

Tennessee-Vanderbilt statistical comps preview: A close one to close out the season

Happy Thanksgiving, everyone.

In this space last weekend, we published our weekly statsy preview with the subtitle The comps have to be wrong about this game, right? The GRT SPM spit out a (rounded) score of Missouri 40, Tennessee 17, a prediction so offensive to my eyes and guts that I just ignored it and made my official prediction 31-27 notwithstanding any of the comps.

Immediately after the game that ended in a 50-17 Tigers win, the SPM texted me a sticking-out-your-tongue emoji, which was a total shock to me because I had no idea it even had a tongue. Or a face, for that matter. I reminded it that it was wrong about the Kentucky game, and the conversation ended there.

Anyway . . . This week, the SPM mostly agrees with Vegas, my eyes, and my gut, and is expecting a close one between the Vols and Commodores Saturday. So, we can all agree this week that we hope we’re all wrong and end up with a repeat of the game against the Wildcats.

Predictions

SPM: Vanderbilt 20, Tennessee 17.8

Eye- and gut-adjusted: Vanderbilt 21, Tennessee 20

Tennessee rushing yards: 160

Tennessee passing yards: 220

Vanderbilt rushing yards: 140

Vanderbilt passing yards: 180

Tennessee points: 20

Vanderbilt points: 21

Spread: Vanderbilt, -1

Tennessee rushing

Tennessee is averaging 131.5 rushing yards per game. Vanderbilt is giving up 194.9 per game on the ground, which makes them the worst rushing defense the Vols have seen all season. The closest comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent that is better at defending the run than Vanderbilt is South Carolina, which is allowing 192.3. But Tennessee only got 144 on the ground against the Gamecocks.

Based on all of that, my guess for rushing yards for Tennessee against Vanderbilt is 160.

Tennessee passing

Tennessee is averaging 201.6 passing yards per game, and Vanderbilt is allowing 241.1. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is West Virginia, which is giving up 244.1 yards per game through the air. A brand spanking new Tennessee team still finding itself put up only 172 against them in the first game of the season for both teams.

On the other hand, the closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Charlotte, which is allowing 225.0 passing yards per game, and Tennessee got only 172 against them.

My eye and gut tell me that Tennessee can do better through the air than it did against either West Virginia early or Charlotte late, and that’s supported by the numbers when you look at them from Vandy’s perspective. Arkansas is averaging 197.5 passing yards per game, and they got 240 against the ‘Dores. Florida, which averages 213.8, got 284. So, the Vols should do better than their average through the air against Vanderbilt Saturday.

Based on that, I’m saying that Tennessee will get somewhere around 220 passing yards this weekend.

Vanderbilt rushing

The Tennessee defense is allowing 159.5 rushing yards per game, while the Vanderbilt run game is averaging 162.8 yards per game. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is West Virginia, which is getting 162.0 yards per game on the ground, and they got 118 against Tennessee. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Auburn, which is averaging 167.2 rushing yards per game and got 126 against Tennessee.

So, it would appear that Tennessee’s rush defense, with all of its faults, has generally held similar teams to below their average on the ground.

The data from Vandy’s perspective is a mixed bag. On one hand, we’re most like Arkansas (giving up an average of 166.6 rushing yards per game) to them, and they put up 250 against the Hogs. On the other hand, the next closest comp for them is Kentucky (giving up 137.5), and they only got 68 against the Cats. We’re right in the middle.

Based on all of that, I’m guessing Vanderbilt will get about 140 rushing yards against Tennessee’s defense.

Vanderbilt passing

The Tennessee pass defense is allowing 209.8 passing yards per game. Vanderbilt is getting 228.6. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Georgia, which is getting 226.4 yards per game through the air, and they got 190 against Tennessee. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is South Carolina, which is averaging 262.0 passing yards per game and got 152 against Tennessee.

The Vols getting torched last week by Missouri and Drew Lock notwithstanding, I think their secondary is capable, so I’m going with Vanderbilt putting up about 180 passing yards against Tennessee.

Tennessee scoring

Tennessee is averaging 23.6 points per game, and Vanderbilt is allowing 26.2. This makes them nearly identical to Missouri, which is allowing 26.6 points per game. The Vols managed only 17 against the Tigers.

The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is West Virginia. They’re allowing 23.3 points per game, and Tennessee got only 14 against them.

As much as I hate to say it, it appears that the Tennessee offense has a ceiling on the number of points it can score. This feels strange, because at times the offense looks quite capable. But 11 games of data says Tennessee’s not likely to score more than its average of 24 points unless it’s playing ETSU or having an outlier game against Auburn.

And yet, it’s Vanderbilt, it’s the last game of the regular season, and there’s a bowl game on the line, so maybe that’s worth a few points.

My prediction is that Tennessee will put up around 20 against Vanderbilt.

Vanderbilt scoring

Tennessee is allowing 27.0 points per game. Vanderbilt is averaging 26.7.

The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Kentucky, which is averaging 23.9 points, and they got 7 against Tennessee. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Auburn, which is averaging 28.9 points and got 24 against Tennessee.

So, the Vols have done well to really well against opponents with the most similar scoring averages, which is obviously good news.

I’m going with Vanderbilt putting up about 21 points against Tennessee.

Comparison of predictions to other models and Vegas

The Vegas spread favors Vanderbilt by 3-3.5, with an over/under of 50.5-51, which converts to something like 27-24, Vandy.

Bill Connelly’s S&P+ says Tennessee has a 44% chance of winning and puts the score at Vanderbilt 31.6, Tennessee 29, a spread of -2.6.

ESPN’s FPI gives the Vols a 38.7% chance of winning.

Left alone, the SPM says Vanderbilt 20, Tennessee 17.8, a spread of -2.2.

After eye- and gut-adjustments, I’m going with Vanderbilt 21, Tennessee 20, a spread of -1. That’s an even closer prediction than the Tennessee-Kentucky game, so let’s hope for a similar result.