Tennessee vs Vanderbilt: The Measuring Stick

Tennessee is playing for bowl eligibility on Saturday, but also to even its record this decade. The Vols are 55-56 since 2010. A win would tie them with Ole Miss and Arkansas for the decade as the only SEC teams with a better winning percentage than the usual basement dwellers from Kentucky and Vanderbilt. Kentucky is obviously up this year, but still trails over the decade at 47-63. Vanderbilt sits at 49-62.

But head-to-head, the Vols and Dores have split the decade so far. And more often than not, what Tennessee has done against the Commodores has played a significant role in the success or failure of their season. It’s not the measuring stick we envisioned at the start of the decade. The Vols can take an important step in leveling up by getting past the Commodores tomorrow.

Here’s a look back at how the last eight meetings have defined Tennessee’s season:

2010: At 4-6, Tyler Bray made his third start and led the Vols to a 24-10 win in Nashville to keep bowl eligibility alive. The Vols beat Kentucky the following week for a successful end to Derek Dooley’s first regular season.

2011: This decade is full of wildly entertaining games in the moment that didn’t stand the test of time because the season was ultimately unsuccessful. One of the best examples: after Tyler Bray missed five games with a broken thumb, he led the 4-6 Vols to a 14-7 halftime lead over a 5-5 James Franklin squad. But a 100-yard pick six tied the score, then Vandy took the lead with 12 minutes to play. A 13-play drive was capped with a fourth-and-goal touchdown pass to Da’Rick Rogers, setting the stage for overtime. Eric Gordon pick-sixed Jordan Rodgers (after a lengthy review) for the win. It was a great step forward in Bray’s return, and positioned Dooley to earn bowl eligibility again…and then the Vols lost at Kentucky.

2012: Dooley’s final game as head coach was a 41-18 beat down from Franklin and the Commodores. His fate was likely already sealed and Tennessee fans were simply interested in moving on. But while losing to Vanderbilt is uncomfortably common now, this loss was the first in the series since 2005 and the second since 1982, and the margin was jarring.

2013: Butch Jones came to his first Vanderbilt game in the exact position Jeremy Pruitt finds himself in now. A Josh Dobbs you’d never recognize now went 11-of-19 for 53 yards, the Vols failed to convert a faked field goal up 10-7 with 12 minutes to play, and after a fourth-and-one stop was overturned, Patton Robinette capped a 12-play, 92-yard drive with a touchdown with 16 seconds to play. It cost the Vols bowl eligibility and dampened some of the good memories of a near miss vs Georgia and a win over #4 South Carolina.

2014: Back in the same boat at 5-6, this time the Vols made it work. An 11-play, 94-yard third quarter drive put Tennessee in front 17-10, and a late score from Dobbs pushed the margin to 24-10 before a Vanderbilt score in the final seconds made the final margin 24-17. The Vols earned bowl eligibility for the first time in three years, and dominated Iowa in Jacksonville.

2015: The only business-as-usual Tennessee-Vanderbilt game of the decade. The Vols won 53-28 over a 4-7 Vanderbilt team behind 331 rushing yards, carrying Tennessee to the Outback Bowl.

2016: The most costly of any of these losses. With a clear path to the New Year’s Six, Tennessee led 34-24 with four minutes to play in the third quarter. From there: Vanderbilt touchdown, Tennessee fumble, Vanderbilt touchdown, Tennessee missed field goal, Vanderbilt touchdown, Tennessee turnover on downs. An already contentious season for Butch Jones took a hard turn into disappointment, setting the stage for his exit the following season.

2017: Jones was out, but the Vols still had a chance to avoid the first 4-8 season in program history. It was not to be: despite a 14-7 lead and trailing only 21-17 with five minutes to play in the third quarter, the defense again surrendered three straight touchdowns down the stretch. Vanderbilt finished 5-7, the Vols 4-8.

Four wins, four losses. The 2011 win was lost in the disaster in Lexington the following week, but I’d say you can draw a straight line between relatively successful regular seasons in 2010, 2014, and 2015 and beating the Commodores. A regular season that might feel more successful than any since 2010 will turn on what the Vols do against Vanderbilt one more time tomorrow.

 

Locks & Keys Week 13: Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt; the Importance of One

Back during Butch Jones’ first year in Knoxville in 2013, the Vols entered the penultimate game of the season against Vanderbilt needing a win out against the Commodores and Kentucky Wildcats to make a bowl game.

UT lost 14-10 in a hapless showing, and as I was walking out of Neyland Stadium, fans grumbled, and I heard the first questions about whether or not the first-year Tennessee coach could get the job done.

As we all know now, he couldn’t. And while I don’t know how fair it is to begin to question at that early juncture of the season, it’s something Jeremy Pruitt will hear a little if the Vols leave Nashville with a loss this season in a winner-take-all (some?) game this weekend.

Personally, I figured this season would be on the brink of 6-6 or 5-7 all year, so I’m going to dial back the criticism. The roster was in terrible shape this year, and though the lack of talent and consistency have killed UT, it’s important to keep things in perspective. Clay Travis reminded us of that this week:

Of course, there’s never an excuse when you’re Tennessee to lose to Vanderbilt. But the harrowing fact is, regardless of how the Vols have beaten the Commodores in recruiting classes, VU has developed better recently. They have a senior starting quarterback in Kyle Shurmur, some playmakers on offense [looking at you, Ke’Shawn Vaughn] and arguably a better defense than Mizzou. This is not a great matchup for Tennessee.

This season has been equal parts hopeful and frustrating. The game to look back on that should sting is the South Carolina second-half collapse. Win that, and this game is virtually meaningless. Instead, this one means a good bit to Pruitt and VU coach Derek Mason.

For Pruitt, though, this is uncharted waters, as he mentioned this week. He’s used to this last game meaning something, and 6-6 — you can just tell when he talks — is not something he’s trumpeting in the least. He probably wants this season to just be over so he can trade 25 players for those of his own, but he knows the value of winning for his young guys is the extra 15 practices.

That’s the most important element of this game for him. For us, it’s not wanting to lose to Vanderbilt again, which has quite frankly owned us recently. Those words taste bitter, but they’re true.

KEYS

Tying things together

I have this vision of Tennessee celebrating at Vanderbilt Stadium and Ty Chandler being hailed as the hero, going home and having one of the biggest games of his two-year college career.

UT needs it to happen, but in order for it to, the offensive line must play better than it has at any point this season. Vanderbilt’s rush defense is 13th in the league, allowing 195 yards per game. The Vols have to run the ball, and they have to get Chandler touches in space, whether that be rushing to the edge or catching passes.

Saturday has to be Ty’s game, and the offensive line needs to make sure he can take it and run with it. If he stars, the Vols win.

Play JG

The reason Tennessee lost against Missouri last week was not that Jarrett Guarantano went out early in the first quarter with a head injury, but it sure didn’t help.

Again, that’s an indictment of an awful offensive line that needs to drastically improve in this offseason, or position coach Will Friend needs to be fired. It’s been that bad, and there’s been very little glimmers of improvement. The O-line finally got JG hurt after all the shots he’s taken this year, and it crushed UT’s offensive hopes.

Hopefully, JG can go this weekend, the line can keep his jersey relatively clean. The Vols need to hit a few of their customary shots downfield, and Guarantano’s health entering the game and sustained throughout are paramount to the Vols making enough offensive plays to win.

Shake Shurmur

Last weekend, Tennessee failed to get any pressure at all on Mizzou veteran quarterback Drew Lock thanks to a sturdy Tigers offensive line, and Lock sat back there in the pocket and shredded UT’s secondary with as much time as he needed. He delivered precision pass after precision pass in a resume game for the NFL. His numbers would have been much better had the Tigers not dropped a pair of deep balls.

Shurmur is no Lock, but he’s a capable veteran quarterback who has thrown a lot of SEC passes and had a ton of success against the Vols. If UT can’t get to him, he will torch Tennessee’s young secondary, and make Alontae Taylor and Bryce Thompson look bad. Darrell Taylor and Co. must find a way to generate a pass rush.

And the young cornerbacks need to play better than they did a week ago, too.

Steal points

Speaking of those young DBs, it’s about time for Alontae Taylor to make his freshman season signature play, isn’t it? He’s had a really strong year, even though he was embarrassed a little a week ago against Missouri. He needs to play for a little pride this week and rebound with a big interception or forced fumble.

Tennessee needs to generate a couple of turnovers deep in Vanderbilt territory and parlay them into extra points. I’m not sure UT can win straight-up without forcing the Commodores into some miscues. This is a very important element of Saturday’s game.

No freebies

On the flip side of that, the margin for error for this team is zero. A week ago, the Vols were driving for what could have been a late first-half touchdown that could have cut the Mizzou lead to 19-17. Instead, Keller Chryst threw a “bad pass” according to his coach, that was picked off, and the Tigers instead turned it into a touchdown and a 26-10 halftime advantage.

That was a soul-crushing, momentum-seizing play.

In the third quarter, Carlin Fils-aime’s fumble was picked up and returned for a scoop-and-score, and the rout was on. That’s essentially a 21- or possibly even 28-point swing. The Vols cannot do that. No team can, but especially not one as slim on talent as Tennessee.

They’ve got to cut out mistakes, or they’ll lose.

Prediction: Tennessee always beats Vanderbilt, right? Well, that’s no longer the case, now, is it? We’ve endured some embarrassing years, and the biggest disappointments in them all are the ownership of UT by South Carolina and the former cupcake in Nashville.

This is not a good Vanderbilt team. It may be better than the Vols, but that doesn’t mean it’s a good team. If UT loses, there needs to be plenty of grumbles, and it will make Pruitt’s job on the recruiting trail a little harder. I don’t know that I fully believe it, but because I can’t bear the thought of losing again, I’m taking the Vols in a close one.

Vols win 27-24

LOCKS

On the way to the Tennessee game last weekend, I was bragging to my dad about how all these big-wig college football reporters’ records ATS this year were like 10 games under .500, and how even though I was beating myself up over being two games in the black, I was pretty strong.

Then last week happened, and I did the equivalent of the Vols defense.

The college football world threw up a 50-burger on me. I went 1-6, easily the worst showing of the season to fall to 37-40 with just one week to go. That’s incredibly disappointing. Much like the Vols, I fell on my face. Now, I’ve got to rally with everybody against me to come up mediocre.

The only game I won was Nebraska +1.5 against Michigan State. Syracuse pooped the bed against Notre Dame, Texas Tech’s worst performance of the season came against Kansas State, we all know what happened with UT, West Virginia lost outright to Oklahoma State, Florida State upset Boston College and Vanderbilt actually beat Ole Miss. There it is – 1-6. *Shudder*.

Here’s hoping for a 5-2 record and a solid season with a push…

  1. Memphis and Houston under 76: It’s normally not smart to bet the under in Memphis games, but I’m not sure the Cougars can hold up their end of the scoreboard without D’Eriq King. I think this one scrapes by.
  2. Syracuse +6.5 over Boston College: I hate picking games during rivalry week because of all the close lines, but this is one of those I can’t believe I’m getting points in. I think the Orange win outright.
  3. Michigan and Ohio State under 57: I’m staying away from the line in the Big Game, but I love Michigan’s defense, and I think this number is way, way too high.
  4. Pittsburgh +4 over Miami: It’s not often Vegas hasn’t caught up to a team at this point in the season, but that’s the case with the Panthers, who are still getting disrespected by the oddsmakers.
  5. LSU +3 over Texas A&M: This is the third game where I’m stunned I’m getting points. LSU is too polished on defense to let this game slip by.
  6. Oklahoma State -5 over TCU: Could this be a letdown game? Sure. The Cowboys have played their best against the best competition this year, and now they’re going up against one of the best defenses in the Big 12. But they’ll do enough to cover this slight number.
  7. Notre Dame -11.5 over USC: Things are going downhill fast in L.A. This will be Clay Helton’s last game; I’ve learned by lesson on the Irish after last week.

Tennessee vs Kansas: Here’s Our Chance

One year ago today, Tennessee beat #18 Purdue in the Battle 4 Atlantis. It was, at the time, an important win to get Tennessee a shot at Villanova and bolster their RPI for what we thought would be a run at the bubble.

One year later, #5 Tennessee will face #2 Kansas on Friday night.

There’s more, of course: #3 Gonzaga’s win over #1 Duke could propel the Bulldogs to the top of the polls, and they’ll face the Vols on December 9. They’ve got work to do between now and then, dates with Creighton and Washington. The Vols shouldn’t be threatened by Eastern Kentucky and Texas A&M Corpus Christi. There’s a chance Gonzaga and Tennessee could meet as #1 and #2.

All that’s down the road. The opportunity with Kansas is enough for one day.

The difference in Tennessee then and now was particularly striking against Louisville. The Vols, once the hunters, watched Louisville play that role against them really well for most of the game. Jeff Greer’s game story from The Athletic speaks of the Cardinals in language that fit Tennessee for years, and speaks of the Vols in terms we haven’t heard since Bruce Pearl’s days. Louisville was within one with less than nine minutes to play.

And then the Vols unleashed the kind of run a Top 5 team makes. A 14-0 run over the span of four minutes included only one point from Grant Williams, who finished with 24 total. Admiral Schofield did plenty of damage in that span though, finishing with 20 points. The Vols survived 11 Louisville threes, missed nine free throws, and still won by 11 while scoring 92 points. Through increasing degrees of difficulty, the Vols have ultimately handled Louisiana, Georgia Tech, and Louisville. Now it’s the boss level.

The Jayhawks beat Duke in the Elite Eight last year before falling to Villanova in the Final Four. Seven-footer Udoka Azubuike is back, currently 10th in the KenPom Player of the Year standings. Dedric Lawson, a 6’9″ Memphis transfer, is fourth.

Grant Williams is first.

The first question for any Vol opponent – “Does this team have anyone who can guard Grant Williams?” – should be an affirmative this time. Louisville had no answers, but I’d expect more from the Jayhawks. Azubuike sends back 12.8% of the shots he faces, and Lawson will bang in there as well. He was a volume scorer at Memphis, finishing in the top six among AAC players in his percentage of total team shots taken in both 2016 and 2017. That shouldn’t be as necessary at Kansas, but he’s averaging 16.3 points and 9.8 rebounds in the early going. Lagerald Vick leads the team in scoring with 20.8 points in 35.3 minutes, and is a scorching 18-of-29 from the arc so far this year.

Kansas has been giving up a really high percentage from the arc and winning anyway. Michigan State hit 12-of-23 (53.3%), and Marquette was 14-of-31 (45.2%). Neither was enough against the Jayhawks: the Spartans were undone by 18 turnovers, Marquette by only attempting five free throws. And on the other end, Kansas has shot well too: 10-of-23 (43.5%) against Michigan State, 5-of-10 (50%) last night, plus 12-of-19 (63.2%) against Vermont. And they don’t turn it over, with just 48 in four games despite playing a Top 50 pace.

The Jayhawks also take away almost any opportunity for an offensive rebound. In four games they’ve only surrendered 27 total offensive boards; that’s the eighth best percentage in the country. The Vols will need to be good on their first shot.

The good news: the Vols are once again one of the best teams in the nation in creating good shots via assist percentage. It’s currently at 70.1%, fourth in the nation, leading to the Vols shooting 51.7% from the floor, 18th nationally in the early going. In better news, the Vols are shooting 57.6% from two, 52nd nationally. Last year: 47.3%, 293rd nationally. It’s early. But shooting better from inside the arc was the most obvious place the Vols could improve from last year, and so far, so good.

They’ll need to be good against Kansas. Tennessee has lived on offensive rebounds in the past, but that may be a luxury they can’t afford against the Jayhawks. This could be an excellent test of how much Tennessee’s best basketball is worth; they should need every bit of it to win, but the prize for winning could be a shot at number one.

It’s the late shift: 9:00 PM ET, ESPN2. Go Vols.

 

Tennessee-Vanderbilt statistical comps preview: A close one to close out the season

Happy Thanksgiving, everyone.

In this space last weekend, we published our weekly statsy preview with the subtitle The comps have to be wrong about this game, right? The GRT SPM spit out a (rounded) score of Missouri 40, Tennessee 17, a prediction so offensive to my eyes and guts that I just ignored it and made my official prediction 31-27 notwithstanding any of the comps.

Immediately after the game that ended in a 50-17 Tigers win, the SPM texted me a sticking-out-your-tongue emoji, which was a total shock to me because I had no idea it even had a tongue. Or a face, for that matter. I reminded it that it was wrong about the Kentucky game, and the conversation ended there.

Anyway . . . This week, the SPM mostly agrees with Vegas, my eyes, and my gut, and is expecting a close one between the Vols and Commodores Saturday. So, we can all agree this week that we hope we’re all wrong and end up with a repeat of the game against the Wildcats.

Predictions

SPM: Vanderbilt 20, Tennessee 17.8

Eye- and gut-adjusted: Vanderbilt 21, Tennessee 20

Tennessee rushing yards: 160

Tennessee passing yards: 220

Vanderbilt rushing yards: 140

Vanderbilt passing yards: 180

Tennessee points: 20

Vanderbilt points: 21

Spread: Vanderbilt, -1

Tennessee rushing

Tennessee is averaging 131.5 rushing yards per game. Vanderbilt is giving up 194.9 per game on the ground, which makes them the worst rushing defense the Vols have seen all season. The closest comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent that is better at defending the run than Vanderbilt is South Carolina, which is allowing 192.3. But Tennessee only got 144 on the ground against the Gamecocks.

Based on all of that, my guess for rushing yards for Tennessee against Vanderbilt is 160.

Tennessee passing

Tennessee is averaging 201.6 passing yards per game, and Vanderbilt is allowing 241.1. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is West Virginia, which is giving up 244.1 yards per game through the air. A brand spanking new Tennessee team still finding itself put up only 172 against them in the first game of the season for both teams.

On the other hand, the closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Charlotte, which is allowing 225.0 passing yards per game, and Tennessee got only 172 against them.

My eye and gut tell me that Tennessee can do better through the air than it did against either West Virginia early or Charlotte late, and that’s supported by the numbers when you look at them from Vandy’s perspective. Arkansas is averaging 197.5 passing yards per game, and they got 240 against the ‘Dores. Florida, which averages 213.8, got 284. So, the Vols should do better than their average through the air against Vanderbilt Saturday.

Based on that, I’m saying that Tennessee will get somewhere around 220 passing yards this weekend.

Vanderbilt rushing

The Tennessee defense is allowing 159.5 rushing yards per game, while the Vanderbilt run game is averaging 162.8 yards per game. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is West Virginia, which is getting 162.0 yards per game on the ground, and they got 118 against Tennessee. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Auburn, which is averaging 167.2 rushing yards per game and got 126 against Tennessee.

So, it would appear that Tennessee’s rush defense, with all of its faults, has generally held similar teams to below their average on the ground.

The data from Vandy’s perspective is a mixed bag. On one hand, we’re most like Arkansas (giving up an average of 166.6 rushing yards per game) to them, and they put up 250 against the Hogs. On the other hand, the next closest comp for them is Kentucky (giving up 137.5), and they only got 68 against the Cats. We’re right in the middle.

Based on all of that, I’m guessing Vanderbilt will get about 140 rushing yards against Tennessee’s defense.

Vanderbilt passing

The Tennessee pass defense is allowing 209.8 passing yards per game. Vanderbilt is getting 228.6. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Georgia, which is getting 226.4 yards per game through the air, and they got 190 against Tennessee. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is South Carolina, which is averaging 262.0 passing yards per game and got 152 against Tennessee.

The Vols getting torched last week by Missouri and Drew Lock notwithstanding, I think their secondary is capable, so I’m going with Vanderbilt putting up about 180 passing yards against Tennessee.

Tennessee scoring

Tennessee is averaging 23.6 points per game, and Vanderbilt is allowing 26.2. This makes them nearly identical to Missouri, which is allowing 26.6 points per game. The Vols managed only 17 against the Tigers.

The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is West Virginia. They’re allowing 23.3 points per game, and Tennessee got only 14 against them.

As much as I hate to say it, it appears that the Tennessee offense has a ceiling on the number of points it can score. This feels strange, because at times the offense looks quite capable. But 11 games of data says Tennessee’s not likely to score more than its average of 24 points unless it’s playing ETSU or having an outlier game against Auburn.

And yet, it’s Vanderbilt, it’s the last game of the regular season, and there’s a bowl game on the line, so maybe that’s worth a few points.

My prediction is that Tennessee will put up around 20 against Vanderbilt.

Vanderbilt scoring

Tennessee is allowing 27.0 points per game. Vanderbilt is averaging 26.7.

The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Kentucky, which is averaging 23.9 points, and they got 7 against Tennessee. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Auburn, which is averaging 28.9 points and got 24 against Tennessee.

So, the Vols have done well to really well against opponents with the most similar scoring averages, which is obviously good news.

I’m going with Vanderbilt putting up about 21 points against Tennessee.

Comparison of predictions to other models and Vegas

The Vegas spread favors Vanderbilt by 3-3.5, with an over/under of 50.5-51, which converts to something like 27-24, Vandy.

Bill Connelly’s S&P+ says Tennessee has a 44% chance of winning and puts the score at Vanderbilt 31.6, Tennessee 29, a spread of -2.6.

ESPN’s FPI gives the Vols a 38.7% chance of winning.

Left alone, the SPM says Vanderbilt 20, Tennessee 17.8, a spread of -2.2.

After eye- and gut-adjustments, I’m going with Vanderbilt 21, Tennessee 20, a spread of -1. That’s an even closer prediction than the Tennessee-Kentucky game, so let’s hope for a similar result.

For Tennessee Basketball, the Future is Now. And in the Future

As the Vols get set to take on Louisville today in Brooklyn, NY in the NIT Season Tip-Off, in front of them is an opportunity that has rarely been seen by the Tennessee Basketball program.  Yes, the Vols have had a few opportunities to make deep NCAA Tournament runs that were thwarted by things like a missed Scotty Hopson free throw or Jerry Green’s utter lack of ability to coach or even Sister Jean of Loyola.  But these Vols, coming off last season’s magical SEC Championship and 26-7 record, entered the 2018-19 season with the program’s highest ever pre-season ranking at #5.  And they have a coach in Rick Barnes, and stars like Grant Williams and Admiral Schofield, who attract the kind of positive media attention a marketing department can only dream of.  The momentum this program, which annually ranks in the Top 10 in national attendance – a testament to how much fan support is there, thin or especially thick – is palpable.

So it’s hard for fans to not look ahead a little bit, further even than what could be a Friday night primetime Top 5 matchup between the Vols and #1 Kansas should both the teams take care of business today.  To daily discussions about Tennessee Basketball on ESPN and on talk radio and Twitter by national pundits across the country.  To another Top 5 matchup with Gonzaga in December and then the SEC gauntlet featuring Top 25-ranked teams like Auburn, Kentucky, Mississippi State, and LSU.

See, as of last Tuesday Tennessee has now, in back to back classes, signed its first 4-star (2018 DJ Burns) and 5-star (2019 Josiah James) in the Barnes Era.  And while this year’s team is a veteran-laden squad with players who’ve played a lot of basketball, it amazingly has only two seniors (with Junior Grant Williams likely to at least test the NBA waters), so there will still be a ton of talent and experience next year and beyond as well.  Further, Tennessee has positioned itself incredibly well for 2020 5-star talents Keon Johnson – a Midstate product – and Jaden Springer, who plays for former Vol Bobby Maze’s AAU program that also has future stars in 2021 and beyond.

There is no reason other than history that Tennessee Basketball can’t elbow its way into a new tier along with your standard college basketball elites.  Tennessee will never have the historical record that programs like UNC or Kentucky or Kansas have.  But there is history there, from Ernie and Bernie to Tony White and many players and coaches in between, before and after.  And with a filled-up 20,000 seat arena and facilities as good as or better than any in the country, what Barnes is building now has a foundation that someone outside of Knoxville or not an in-the-know pundit might expect.  So when the Vols take the court today against Louisville, and, hopefully Friday against Kansas, they aren’t just playing for NCAA Tournament seeding come March.  They’re playing to take another step towards taking this program to a level it’s never seen, a level that for no good reason has not yet been reached.  And with Barnes at the helm and guys like Grant and Admiral on the floor, and with guys like Burns and James on the way and prospects like Johnson and Springer teed up, it’s all there for the taking.  These Vols just have to take it.

2018 college football TV schedule for Vols fans: Week 13

Thursday and Friday

There’s a fun weekend of football ahead to go along with your turkey and shopping. The Egg Bowl kicks Thanksgiving night, and Friday features a couple of Top 25 matchups, including one between former Vols’ opponent No. 13 West Virginia going up against No. 6 Oklahoma.

Thursday, November 22, 2018
Away Home Time TV How Why
No. 18 Mississippi State Ole Miss 7:30 PM ESPN, WatchESPN Channel Hop Top 25 Team

 

Friday, November 23, 2018
Away Home Time TV How Why
No. 6 Oklahoma No. 13 West Virginia 8:00 PM ESPN, WatchESPN Channel Hop Past Opponent/Top 25
No. 16 Washington No. 8 Washington State 8:30 PM FOX Channel Hop Top 25 Matchup

 

Gameday

Saturday, November 24, 2018
Away Home Time TV How Why
NOON SLATE
No. 4 Michigan No. 10 Ohio State 12:00 PM FOX Channel Hop Top 25 Matchup
Georgia Tech No. 5 Georgia 12:00 PM SECN, WatchESPN Channel Hop Past Opponent
No. 11 Florida Florida State 12:00 PM ABC, WatchESPN Channel Hop Past Opponent
AFTERNOON SLATE
Auburn No. 1 Alabama 3:30 PM CBS Channel Hop Top 25 Team
Tennessee Vanderbilt 4:00 PM SECN, WatchESPN Live Go Vols!
EVENING SLATE
No. 15 Kentucky Louisville 7:00 PM ESPN2, WatchESPN Channel Hop Past Opponent
South Carolina No. 2 Clemson 7:00 PM ESPN, WatchESPN Channel Hop Past Opponent
No. 7 LSU No. 22 Texas A&M 7:30 PM SECN, WatchESPN Channel Hop Top 25 Matchup

 

The noon slate features a couple of appetizers, including the big rivalry between No. 4 Michigan and No. 10 Ohio State. There are also a couple of other games that include former Vols’ opponents in case you’re still interested in how the Bulldogs and Gators are doing.

Tennessee plays Vanderbilt at 4:00 on the SEC Network, so that’s your main event as a Vols fan. But the Iron Bowl is going on at the same time. Figure Alabama to roll, but rivalries can get funky, so keep an eye on it just in case.

In the evening, there are a couple of additional rivalry games featuring former Vols’ opponents Kentucky (against Louisville) and South Carolina (against Clemson.)

Full sortable and searchable college football TV schedule

Date Away Home Time TV
Thu Nov 22 Colorado State Air Force 3:30 PM CBSSN
Thu Nov 22 No. 18 Mississippi State Ole Miss 7:30 PM ESPN, WatchESPN
Fri Nov 23 No. 14 Texas Kansas 12:00 PM FS1
Fri Nov 23 Akron Ohio 12:00 PM CBSSN
Fri Nov 23 Buffalo Bowling Green 12:00 PM ESPNU, WatchESPN
Fri Nov 23 Central Michigan Toledo 12:00 PM ESPN3
Fri Nov 23 Eastern Michigan Kent State 12:00 PM ESPN3
Fri Nov 23 Houston Memphis 12:00 PM ABC, WatchESPN
Fri Nov 23 Nebraska Iowa 12:00 PM FOX
Fri Nov 23 Arkansas Missouri 2:30 PM CBS
Fri Nov 23 Coastal Carolina South Alabama 3:00 PM ESPN+
Fri Nov 23 East Carolina Cincinnati 3:30 PM CBSSN
Fri Nov 23 Virginia Virginia Tech 3:30 PM ABC, WatchESPN
Fri Nov 23 Oregon Oregon State 4:00 PM FS1
Fri Nov 23 No. 9 UCF South Florida 4:15 PM ESPN, WatchESPN
Fri Nov 23 No. 6 Oklahoma No. 13 West Virginia 8:00 PM ESPN, WatchESPN
Fri Nov 23 No. 16 Washington No. 8 Washington State 8:30 PM FOX
Sat Nov 24 No. 4 Michigan No. 10 Ohio State 12:00 PM FOX
Sat Nov 24 Georgia Tech No. 5 Georgia 12:00 PM SECN, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 24 No. 11 Florida Florida State 12:00 PM ABC, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 24 No. 20 Syracuse Boston College 12:00 PM ESPN, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 24 Baylor Texas Tech 12:00 PM FS1
Sat Nov 24 Marshall Florida Intl 12:00 PM
Sat Nov 24 Navy Tulane 12:00 PM ESPNU, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 24 Purdue Indiana 12:00 PM ESPN2, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 24 Western Kentucky Louisiana Tech 12:00 PM CBSSN
Sat Nov 24 NC State North Carolina 12:20 PM ACCNE, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 24 Wake Forest Duke 12:30 PM ACCNE, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 24 Old Dominion Rice 1:00 PM ESPN+
Sat Nov 24 Georgia Southern Georgia State 2:00 PM ESPN+
Sat Nov 24 New Mexico State Liberty 2:00 PM ESPN3
Sat Nov 24 Troy Appalachian State 2:30 PM ESPN+
Sat Nov 24 Wyoming New Mexico 2:30 PM
Sat Nov 24 Louisiana UL Monroe 3:00 PM ESPN+
Sat Nov 24 Southern Mississippi UTEP 3:00 PM ESPN+
Sat Nov 24 Stanford UCLA 3:00 PM PAC12
Sat Nov 24 UAB Middle Tennessee 3:00 PM ESPN3
Sat Nov 24 Auburn No. 1 Alabama 3:30 PM CBS
Sat Nov 24 Illinois No. 19 Northwestern 3:30 PM BTN
Sat Nov 24 Maryland No. 12 Penn State 3:30 PM ABC, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 24 No. 24 Pittsburgh Miami 3:30 PM ESPN, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 24 Arizona State Arizona 3:30 PM FS1
Sat Nov 24 Minnesota Wisconsin 3:30 PM ESPN2, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 24 SMU Tulsa 3:30 PM CBSSN
Sat Nov 24 Temple UConn 3:30 PM ESPNU, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 24 Tennessee Vanderbilt 4:00 PM SECN, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 24 Arkansas State Texas State 4:00 PM ESPN3
Sat Nov 24 Rutgers Michigan State 4:00 PM FOX
Sat Nov 24 Charlotte Florida Atlantic 6:00 PM
Sat Nov 24 Kansas State No. 25 Iowa State 7:00 PM FS1
Sat Nov 24 No. 15 Kentucky Louisville 7:00 PM ESPN2, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 24 South Carolina No. 2 Clemson 7:00 PM ESPN, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 24 Colorado California 7:00 PM PAC12
Sat Nov 24 North Texas UTSA 7:00 PM ESPN+
Sat Nov 24 San Jose State Fresno State 7:00 PM ESPNU, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 24 No. 7 LSU No. 22 Texas A&M 7:30 PM SECN, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 24 No. 3 Notre Dame USC 8:00 PM ABC, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 24 Oklahoma State TCU 8:00 PM FOX
Sat Nov 24 Nevada UNLV 9:30 PM CBSSN
Sat Nov 24 BYU No. 17 Utah 10:00 PM FS1
Sat Nov 24 No. 21 Utah State No. 23 Boise State 10:15 PM ESPN, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 24 Hawai'i San Diego State 10:30 PM ESPNU, WatchESPN

Tennessee vs Louisville Preview

The one good thing about your rival being at the peak of their powers is the reward for beating them. And when your rival is operating at the peak of their powers with a head coach that’s especially fun to hate, bonus points.

Louisville is certainly not Tennessee’s rival – the Vols won the first six meetings from 1913-1922, and the Cardinals have won 12 of the other 13 since – but Rick Pitino used to be. He went 14-3 against the Vols at Kentucky, winning the last nine in a row by an average of 25 points. Those nine games were my middle and high school days, and those blowouts gave me a significant amount of disdain for Pitino. But then he left for my beloved Boston Celtics; it was an odd feeling but, hey, the way he dominated at UK, surely he’ll bring championships back to Boston, right?

Nope: 36-46, 19-31 in the shortened 1999 season, 35-47, then fired after a 12-22 start. Larry Bird wasn’t walking through that door, but half the guys who played at Kentucky were.

Pitino went to Louisville, which had a four-year home-and-home agreement with Buzz Peterson’s Vols. And…one-point loss, three-point loss, three-point loss, blow out. Three years later the most successful Tennessee team in program history went to the Sweet 16, ran into Louisville as a three-seed…and lost by 19.

All of that to say this: no individual has done more damage with less return to more teams that I care about than Rick Pitino. And I’m mad he’s not on the sideline to get beat tonight.

Instead it’s Chris Mack, a great coach who made four Sweet 16’s and an Elite Eight in nine years at Xavier, plus won the Big East outright over Villanova last year. It’s been a minute since we’ve seen Louisville on the national stage for something other than Pitino and drama: after going Final Four, National Champs, Sweet 16, Elite Eight from 2012-15, the Cardinals were ineligible in 2016, got bounced in the second round in 2017, and fell to the NIT during their tumultuous 2018.

A 9-9 finish in the ACC is still nothing to sneeze at; the Cardinals finished 38th in KenPom but graduated their starting point guard and lost three others early to the NBA. They’ve played a lot of no one in their 3-0 start – Nicholls State, Southern, and Vermont – but do jump out at you statistically in a couple of ways.

The Cardinals are fifth nationally in effective field goal percentage and first in the country in free throw rate. In the opener against Nicholls, Louisville went 42-of-55 (!!!!!!) at the line. Nicholls went 12-of-16. In a 50-point win over Southern, they were 31-of-39. Against Vermont, 26-of-33. The Cardinals are 27th nationally in free throws attempted and 21 of the teams ahead of them have played at least five games; Louisville has played three.

So yeah, these dudes get to the line. Jordan Nwora (6’7″) averages 18-6, V.J. King (6’6″) averages 11-4, and Akoy Agau (6’8″) averages 7-7. Throw in 6’11” Malik Williams, and you’ve got plenty of length to go around in the rotation, plus a really hot shooting guard in Darius Perry. It looks like a Pitino team. The good news: Tennessee, so far, has been much better at defending without fouling this year. Their 50 personal fouls on the season rank 327th in the nation.

The good guys have been playing their starting five a bunch of minutes early: between 28.6 for Kyle Alexander and 33.7 for Admiral Schofield. Fulkerson and Pons have been the go-to’s off the bench, but it’ll be interesting to see how Lamonte Turner factors into the equation in his first game back.

Of course, Kansas is out there waiting. There’s a scenario here where the Vols could sweep the week and find themselves ranked second in the nation next week, behind the winner of Duke and, I’m assuming, Gonzaga in Maui. The Vols are currently ranked fifth and could/should get a shot at the #2 Jayhawks on Friday. Virginia is at #4, but their Battle 4 Atlantis field isn’t as strong this year, with only #25 Wisconsin ranked in the rest of the bracket.

That’s all getting ahead of ourselves, but when you’re ranked this high that’s what Thanksgiving basketball is all about: let’s see what we’ve got against the best of the best and file it away for March. The Vols are certainly playing to win the SEC again, but also to get as far up the bracket as possible. A shot at Kansas lets you take your temperature; beating the Jayhawks allows you to stay in the top-line national conversation.

But to get there, we’ll have to go through Louisville first. 5:00 PM ET, ESPN2. Happy Thanksgiving.

 

One Month from Early Signing Period, Defensive Board Has Elite Prospects at Each Position

Coming out of the Missouri game, Tennessee is 5-5 and has a win or go home matchup against fellow .500 squad Vanderbilt in Neyland West, aka Memorial Stadium in Nashville.  Coach Jeremy Pruitt currently has the #2 recruiting class in the SEC East and 15th nationally, with needs addressed across the roster and positioned for an outstanding finish to their first full class.

Since we looked at the Offensive Board last week, there have been a few happenings on that side of the ball:

RB Eric Gray once again eschewed a visit to Michigan – where he as of this writing is still committed – to take another visit to Knoxville and the Vols are in excellent position to flip him.  He would be an outstanding addition to a roster in desperate need of playmakers, not to mention another stake in the ground for Pruitt and Tennessee in the fertile recruiting area that is Memphis.

WR Javonta Payton took his official visit to Mississippi State and committed to the Bulldogs.  While at one point it seemed like he was a Tennessee lean, Payton appears to have made a final decision.  That puts WR Khafre Brown at the front of the list of remaining WR targets – although they will absolutely continue to try for 5-star WR Jadon Haselwood (who took an OV to Florida State this weekend, though the Seminoles are not a real contender in this writer’s mind) – and while Brown isn’t as physically developed as the JUCO product Payton he is a burner (10.7 in the 100-meter dash) and will absolutely improve the speed on the roster.

OL Darnell Wright was thought to be a possible unofficial visitor in Knoxville but once again didn’t make it.  However, the Vols appear to still be in the driver’s seat for the 5-star West Virginia native.  With his season having ended this past Friday, Wright will start to set up his official visits.  The Vols will need to continue to fight for the coveted lineman until he makes a final decision, with Alabama continuing to be the primary competition and UGA and Clemson trying to be players.

ATH Xavier Leggette was left out of the previous piece because Jeremy Pruitt to this point has taken prospects who play on both sides of the ball and put them on Defense.  However, Leggette – who took another unofficial to home-state South Carolina this past weekend – has expressed a clear desire to play WR.  Both the Cocks and the Vols still have official visits left to host Leggette, but his coach recently stated that Tennessee has seemed to show him more love to Carolina to this point.

Below we take a look at the Defensive Board, where the Vols have needs at each position and current commitments Lakia Henry and Ledarrius Cox are still looking around:

Defensive Line/Pass-Rushers

At position where no program can ever have enough bodies, and Tennessee in particular has a need for both quantity and quality, the Vols do in fact have six commitments from Defensive Linemen/Pass-Rushers.  And while the recruiting rankings for the six prospects run the gamut, from this vantage point Tennessee has amassed a group that has a great mix of immediate impact potential and long-term upside.  At the same time, there is still a need to add at least one more player to this list, and Tennessee is recruiting as such.  Interestingly, however, the majority of the players on the list below are committed elsewhere, which will make it that much more difficult to land another impact DL prospect.

DL Justin Eboigbe – An Alabama commitment who visited Knoxville over the summer and then again for an UV for the Kentucky game, the Atlanta-area native has had an outstanding senior season playing both inside and out on the DL.  As of now it remains to be seen if the Vols can get him back to campus again for an OV, and regardless the Tide will host him on the last weekend before Signing Day.  Therefore it goes without saying that this will be a tough pull, but Tennessee has positioned itself as well as one can for a player committed to the national champs

Pass-Rusher Niadre Zouzoua –  Perhaps the most “gettable” prospect on this list, as well as one of the most intriguing, Zouzoua is an early-enrollee JUCO Passrusher who along with his Vol offer (picked up in early October when his film got out) also holds offers from Nebraska, Baylor, Temple, and Rutgers. He’s 6’5, 230-pounds with really nice speed off the edge and right now is scheduled to take his Tennessee OV the December 7th weekend, followed by an OV to Baylor the following weekend that immediately precedes Signing Day. Zouzoua was a multi-sport athlete in high school, playing hoops and running track, so he fits that mold of what Pruitt likes in his signees.  Given the need for pass-rushers on the roster, as well as the struggles in gaining traction with them in this class – not to discount the two current commitments Jalil Clemons and Roman Harrison, both of whom I am very high on – I think Zouzoua could be a guy who if the Vols like what they see on his visit to Knoxville that they pounce on.  Being an early enrollee would allow him to go through spring practice and be ready to immediately join the rotation in 2019.

 

DL Jared Harrison-Hunte  –  At 6’4 and 285 lbs, the New York native is a prospect that has quietly been on Tennessee’s radar for a long time.  Originally scheduled to officially visit Knoxville this past weekend, he’s instead was at Arizona State.  He is now set for a gauntlet of high-profile visits that belie his 3-star ranking, starting with Ohio State this weekend, followed by PSU the following and then Tennessee either December 7th or 14th. A January OV to Michigan State has also been discussed, so whether he signs in December or February appears to be up in the air.  Depending on how things go with Eboigbe in December and of course whether or not he makes it past his OSU and PSU visits, the Vols could really turn the pressure up when/if he makes it to Knoxville.

 

DL Nick Figureoa – A JUCO prospect with a Tennessee offer; Figueroa is a 6’5, 270-pound DE who is originally from California and is playing his JUCO ball there as well.  He’s got a UCLA offer and they could be the favorite, but he’s also got offers from Virginia Tech (11/30 OV) and Georgia Tech.  Not likely a priority at the moment, the Vols could turn back here depending on how things go with other prospects.

DL Kristian Varner – A former Louisville commitment took an unofficial visit to Knoxville for the Missouri game, Varner doesn’t appear to be a priority at the moment despite having a Vol offer for a while.  However, he’s got a large offer list after a nice senior season and the GA native is a nice-looking developmental prospect.

DL Zion Logue/Travon Walker/Nolan Smith – Three UGA commitments, two of whom – Smith and Walker – who took official visits for the Missouri game.  None of them appear to be truly in play for the Vols at this point.

DL Joseph Anderson – South Carolina commitment from Nashville who at one time tried to commit to the Vols but was put on hold.  There have been some rumblings that there could be something brewing here but at this point I don’t put much stock into it unless and until he shows up again in Knoxville.

Inside Linebacker

Perhaps more than any other position on the defense, Inside Linebacker is a position on the current roster that has been exposed during the 2018 season as being in need of a major talent upgrade.  The current ILBs on the roster – with the exception of freshman JJ Peterson (and this is solely based on his rating coming out of high school) – simply don’t have the athletic ability/size combination to both play in space while at the same time matching up against run-heavy offenses.  To this point, however, the Vols only have one ILB commitment, albeit from a bigtime JUCO prospect in Lakia Henry.  The good news is that Tennessee is very much in the mix for some elite level Linebackers who should be able to step in and help immediately in 2019.  None of them are done deals – far from it – but this position in particular could see a December to remember in terms of talent upgrade if things go according to plan.

Owen Pappoe – An Auburn commitment since the spring, Pappoe is an elite athlete who plays for the bigtime Grayson HS program and as such is teammates with Vol OL commit Wanya Morris as well as CB target Kenyatta Watson (more on him below).  Pappoe has been to Knoxville dozens of times since he was in 8th grade, and due to a number of factors, including but far from limited to Auburn’s on-field struggles and the subsequent roar around Gus Malzahn’s long-term if not immediate job insecurity, the Vols have surged here.  Morris being in his ear while the Vols have shown real on-field improvement and the longtime relationships Pappoe has with multiple Vol staffers have also helped.  Although nothing is set in stone, the word is that not only will Pappoe (and hopefully Watson) take an official visit to Tennessee the weekend prior to Signing Day but he is also unlikely to take an official visit to Auburn.  Should those come to pass that would be the strongest sign yet that Pappoe ends up a Vol, and as an early enrollee he would instantly be a frontrunner for early playing time in 2019.

Trezeman Marshall – A UGA commitment, Marshall took his official visit to Tennessee back in the spring before committing to the instate Dawgs.  However, the Vols dogged (pardon the pun) pursuit along with his longstanding relationships with many members of the Tennessee staff got him back to Knoxville this past weekend for another unofficial visit.  Marshall’s status as an elite prospect is certified by the fact that not only is he a UGA commitment coveted by Tennessee but he’s got upcoming visits with the likes of Alabama (this weekend) and Auburn.  Coming out of his visit to Knoxville it sounds like the Vols are neck and neck with the Dawgs, but this one will have some twists and turns before he signs his papers and enrolls at the school of his choice in January.

Henry To’oto’to – Another elite LB prospect on the board, what makes To’oto’to on this list is that he’s not a Southeast prospect but instead is from California.  That said, Tennessee is fighting a familiar foe in Alabama, as both the Vols and the Tide have a De La Salle HS alum on its side, with former Vol great Kevin Simon fighting the good fight for Tennessee.  To’oto’to took unofficials to both schools in the spring/summer, and plans on officially visiting both before signing in February.  West Coast schools such as Oregon and Cal aren’t going quietly, but the Tide are considered the leaders right now with the Vols right behind.  To’oto’to is without a doubt an elite prospect, but both schools have other LBs on the line and how they fare with those prospects could play a role in where To’oto’to ultimately signs.

Quavaris Crouch – At one time considered a Vol lean, despite taking an official visit to Knoxville for the Kentucky game this one appears to be a long shot at the moment as Clemson has taken control.  Anything can happen in recruiting, of course, but at this point I think anyone expects Crouch to end up in the right shade of orange.

Secondary

Although the Vols have 4 DB commitments (maybe 5, depending on Aaron Beasley signing Tennessee and at which position he ends up), they would love to add another if it’s the right prospect.

DB Kenyatta Watson – A Texas commitment and high school teammate of the aforementioned Wanya Morris and Pappoe, Watson has been pretty quiet about his recruitment for a while.  However, there has been a lot of buzz around him and the Vols, and while there have been conflicting reports about whether he attended this past weekend’s Missouri game, it wouldn’t surprise me if he wanted to keep that quiet.  Watson is an elite athlete with great length at 6’2 and could play any position in the secondary. The hope in Knoxville is that he and Pappoe take their final OVs before Signing Day together to Tennessee.  If they do all bets are off, and this will be one to watch until then…

DB Jammie Robinson – Another Georgia native, Robinson is a very nice prospect with offers from South Carolina, Michigan and Tennessee among others and strong interest from the instate Bulldogs pending their needs.  Robinson’s tie to the Vols is Quality Control assistant Shelton Felton, his former high school coach, and he made his first visit to Knoxville for the Florida game.  He hasn’t scheduled an official visit to Tennessee yet – he’s took his OV to South Carolina over the summer – but he’s not signing until February so there isn’t a rush.  Given that timing, it will be interesting to see how things shake out for the Vols with the rest of their board and how hard they pursue Robinson, but he’s a prospect I really like as he’s got all the athletic tools and plays with a real edge.

 

Tennessee Vols statistical rankings after Missouri

It’s time to check in on the Vols’ rankings in all of the official NCAA statistical rankings. The following compares the team’s rankings after the 2017 season to those so far in 2018. There’s a fair amount of improvement in most places.

Offense

Defense

Special Teams

Turnovers and Penalties

 

Final projected win total for the Vols for 2018: One final tossup game

In this space each week of the regular season, we update our expected win totals for the season using our projected win total machine. With only one game left, the only remaining question is what odds you’re giving Tennessee to beat Vanderbilt this week in Nashville. I’ve left the calculator in the post in case you want to use it, but mostly I wanted to use the information we’ve been compiling here each week to briefly summarize the season and what the Vols have and have not yet been able to accomplish.

  • West Virginia: #17 at the time, #9 now. Loss, 40-14
  • ETSU: The FCS Bucs are co-Southern Champs, currently ranked #22 in the FCS, and headed to the playoffs. Win, 59-3
  • UTEP: Terrible team with a bad season. Win, 24-0
  • Florida: Not ranked at the time, #13 now. Loss, 47-21
  • Georgia: #2 at the time, #5 now. Loss, 38-12
  • Auburn: #21 at the time, currently not ranked. Win, 30-24
  • Alabama: #1 at the time, #1 now. Loss, 58-21
  • South Carolina: Not ranked at the time, not ranked now. Loss, 27-24
  • Charlotte: Not ranked then or now. Win, 14-3
  • Kentucky: #11 at the time, #17 now. Win, 24-7
  • Missouri: Not ranked then or now. Loss, 50-17

Best wins: Kentucky and Auburn.

Expected outcomes: Losses to ranked Alabama, Georgia, West Virginia. Wins against ETSU, UTEP, Charlotte.

Lost opportunities: Florida (better team, but undone by turnovers instead of just getting beat), South Carolina, Missouri.

My new expected win total:

  • This week: 5.5
  • Last week: 6.1
  • After Week 10: 5.3
  • After Week 9: 5.55
  • After Week 8: 6.0
  • After Week 7: 6.3
  • After Week 6: 5.0
  • After Week 5: 4.9
  • After Week 4: 4.55
  • After Week 3: 5.5

I didn’t think that Missouri would dominate Tennessee like it did last Saturday, but neither was I surprised, because the SPM was within three points of nailing the scores for both teams. Turns out, the comps were right. The thing is, it could just as easily turned out the other way, which is why I put the chances of beating Missouri at 50%. Missouri was just too balanced and too good along the lines, and those advantages translated into a lot of points.

None of that changes my opinion about the Vanderbilt game, though, which I am still putting at 50%. Go Vols. Go bowling.

Use the form below to calculate your expected win total and post it in the comments below the post.

Explanations are below, but here’s the updated chart for this week:

Tennessee Volunteers currently

Current record: 5-6 (2-5), 6th in the SEC East

The Vols’ past opponents

West Virginia Mountaineers

Current record: 8-2 (6-2), 2nd in Big 12, #9

East Tennessee State Buccaneers

Current record: 8-3 (6-2), 1st in Southern

UTEP Miners

Current record: 1-10 (1-6), 6th in C-USA – West

Florida Gators

Current record: 8-3 (5-3), 2nd in SEC – East, #13

Georgia Bulldogs

Current record: 10-1 (7-1), 1st in SEC – East, #5

Auburn Tigers

Current record: 7-4 (3-4), 4th in SEC – West

Alabama Crimson Tide

Current record: 11-0 (7-0), 1st in SEC – West, #1

South Carolina Gamecocks

Current record: 6-4 (4-4), 4th in SEC – East

  • Beat C. Carolina, 49-15
  • Lost to #3 Georgia, 41-17
  • Marshall, Canceled
  • Beat Vanderbilt, 37-14
  • Lost to Kentucky, 24-10
  • Beat Missouri, 37-35
  • Lost Texas A&M, 26-23
  • Bye
  • Beat Tennessee, 27-24
  • Beat Ole Miss, 48-44
  • Lost to Florida, 35-31
  • Beat Chattanooga, 49-9
  • Clemson

Charlotte 49ers

Current record: 4-7 (3-4), 4th in C-USA – East

Kentucky Wildcats

Current record: 8-3 (5-3), 2nd in SEC – East, #17

Missouri Tigers

Current record: 7-4 (3-4), 5th in SEC – East

The Vols’ future opponents

Vanderbilt Commodores

Current record: 5-6 (2-5), 6th in SEC – East