Jahiegel wins the regular season pick ’em contest; bowl pick ’em now open

A belated congratulations to Jahiegel, who won this year’s regular-season-long GRT Pick ‘Em Contest (and also to PAVolFan, who won the final week of the season.) For their efforts, PAVolFan gets a Gameday on Rocky Top t-shirt, and Jahiegel gets a GRT hoodie. Watch for a message from me (it will come through the Fun Office Pools system) about how to claim your prize.

Gameday on Rocky Top Logo Tee

Here are the full results for the final week:

Rank Selection Name W-L Pts Tie Breaker Game (35-28)
1 PAVolFan 9-1 52 31-20
2 Jahiegel 8-2 51 34-28**
2 UTSeven 8-2 51 38-24
2 C_hawkfan 9-1 51 33-26
2 jfarrar90 8-2 51 38-21
2 LuckyGuess 8-2 51 34-24
7 wedflatrock 8-2 50 35-24**
7 tbone9591 8-2 50 35-24**
7 Joel @ GRT 8-2 50 31-25
7 UNDirish60 8-2 50 31-24
7 KeepsCornInAJar 9-1 50 34-17
7 Timbuktu126 9-1 50 24-21
13 GeorgeMonkey 7-3 49 38-24**
13 cnyvol 7-3 49 41-24
15 jstorie1 8-2 48 31-17**
15 birdjam 8-2 48 31-17**
17 DinnerJacket 8-2 47 35-20
18 chuckiepoo 7-3 46 38-27**
18 spartans100 7-3 46 31-21
18 rsbrooks25 8-2 46 48-27
21 alanmar 8-2 45 38-27**
21 mmmjtx 8-2 45 34-24
21 mariettavol 7-3 45 45-24
21 Phonies 6-4 45 31-17
25 chatty daddy 8-2 44 43-17**
25 tcarroll90 7-3 44 38-21
25 Gman15 8-2 44 41-31
25 TennRebel 7-3 44 24-10
29 Volfan2002 7-3 43 35-24**
29 MariettaVol1 7-3 43 45-29
31 mmb61 6-4 42 28-24
32 Bulldog 85 5-5 40 31-24**
32 Rossboro 6-4 40 0-0
34 Keep on truckin’ 5-5 37 31-24
35 Will Shelton 4-6 34 42-41
36 ChuckieTVol 0-10 33 0-0**
36 ddayvolsfan 0-10 33 -
36 VandyVol 0-10 33 -
36 Jayyyy 0-10 33 -
36 PensacolaVolFan 0-10 33 -
36 crafdog 0-10 33 -
36 ga26engr 0-10 33 -
36 Displaced_Vol_Fan 0-10 33 -
36 Raven17 0-10 33 -
36 Knottfair 0-10 33 -
36 TennVol95 in 3D! 0-10 33 -
36 Brandon88 0-10 33 -
36 War Birds 0-10 33 -
36 JohnCoctostan 0-10 33 -
36 BallerVawl 0-10 33 -
36 edgarmsmith 0-10 33 -
36 ctull 0-10 33 -
36 Pat OMalley 0-10 33 -
36 Dylan pickle 0-10 33 -
36 Willewillm 0-10 33 -
36 Anaconda 0-10 33 -
36 BZACHARY 0-10 33 -
36 RockyPopPicks 0-10 33 -
36 JLPasour 0-10 33 -
36 RockyTop5 0-10 33 -
36 Joelarbear 0-10 33 -
36 VillaVol 0-10 33 -
36 utvol2 0-10 33 -
36 Rocky4 0-10 33 -
36 tpi 0-10 33 -
36 ltvol99 0-10 33 -
36 vols95 0-10 33 -
36 aquasox 0-10 33 -
36 IndyVolFan 0-10 33 -
36 RandyH112 0-10 33 -
36 ThePowerT 0-10 33 -
36 Techboy 0-10 33 -
36 Fred4UT 0-10 33 -
36 BlountVols 0-10 33 -
36 King Nothing 0-10 33 -
36 Nick_Drake87 0-10 33 -
36 waltsspac 0-10 33 -
36 Orange Swarm 0-10 33 -
36 rockytopinky 0-10 33 -
36 BirdDawg55 0-10 33 -
36 patmd 0-10 33 -
36 tallahasseevol 0-10 33 -
36 Jrstep 0-10 33 -
36 Dmorton 0-10 33 -
36 dgibbs 0-10 33 -
36 IBleedVolOrange 0-10 33 -
36 CajunVol 0-10 33 -
36 daetilus 0-10 33 -
36 Aaron Birkholz 0-10 33 -
36 boro wvvol 0-10 33 -
36 OriginalVol1814 0-10 33 -
36 JWaldroop 0-10 33 -
36 Sam 0-10 33 -
36 Fightin Walking Horses 0-10 33 -
36 DMike 0-10 33 -
36 Smokin Turkeys 0-10 33 -
36 I guess Randy Sanders was good after all 0-10 33 -

And here are the final season standings:

Rank Player W/L Points
1 Jahiegel 191-76 2135
2 wedflatrock 189-78 2113
3 Volfan2002 186-81 2107
4 C_hawkfan 190-77 2093
5 PAVolFan 184-83 2091
5 birdjam 183-84 2091
7 GeorgeMonkey 183-84 2087
8 LuckyGuess 179-88 2075
8 spartans100 183-84 2075
10 cnyvol 172-95 2065
11 BZACHARY 178-89 2061
12 UNDirish60 185-82 2051
13 Fred4UT 174-93 2047
14 Bulldog 85 176-91 2043
15 mmb61 175-92 2033
16 UTSeven 168-99 2031
17 jfarrar90 174-93 2026
18 Displaced_Vol_Fan 168-99 2022
19 chuckiepoo 174-93 2013
20 alanmar 184-83 2008
21 mmmjtx 178-89 1999
22 TennRebel 183-84 1998
23 ChuckieTVol 159-108 1997
24 Rossboro 170-97 1982
25 Will Shelton 161-106 1981
26 boro wvvol 170-97 1980
27 JLPasour 169-98 1978
28 jstorie1 176-91 1976
28 Fightin Walking Horses 173-94 1976
30 ctull 172-95 1969
31 RockyTop5 161-106 1958
32 dgibbs 153-114 1956
33 Anaconda 171-96 1949
34 chatty daddy 175-92 1947
34 Joel @ GRT 172-95 1947
36 DinnerJacket 175-92 1942
37 Rocky4 167-100 1938
38 Phonies 162-105 1929
39 MariettaVol1 167-100 1927
40 tcarroll90 164-103 1923
41 VillaVol 147-120 1920
42 tpi 174-93 1917
43 mariettavol 156-111 1913
44 Joelarbear 160-107 1904
45 Raven17 157-110 1902
46 Dylan pickle 183-84 1899
47 tbone9591 167-100 1897
48 Jayyyy 152-115 1889
49 KeepsCornInAJar 170-97 1887
50 vols95 154-113 1876
51 crafdog 172-95 1854
52 daetilus 144-123 1843
53 Timbuktu126 176-91 1841
54 RockyPopPicks 156-111 1837
55 Willewillm 122-145 1824
56 ddayvolsfan 165-102 1821
57 Knottfair 116-151 1820
58 Gman15 158-109 1806
58 rsbrooks25 168-99 1806
60 Keep on truckin� 163-104 1802
61 BlountVols 137-130 1799
62 Sam 121-146 1796
63 ga26engr 153-114 1775
64 ThePowerT 100-167 1746
65 ltvol99 146-121 1745
66 DMike 94-173 1743
66 RandyH112 107-160 1743
68 Jrstep 136-131 1738
69 waltsspac 118-149 1716
70 edgarmsmith 102-165 1674
71 Nick_Drake87 77-190 1667
72 King Nothing 131-136 1653
73 Brandon88 72-195 1627
74 aquasox 90-177 1623
75 IndyVolFan 136-131 1615
76 TennVol95 in 3D! 114-153 1607
77 Orange Swarm 73-194 1602
77 JWaldroop 61-206 1602
79 patmd 117-150 1601
80 rockytopinky 80-187 1589
81 Dmorton 100-167 1575
82 PensacolaVolFan 120-147 1522
83 OriginalVol1814 47-220 1513
84 BallerVawl 58-209 1483
85 tallahasseevol 49-218 1472
86 VandyVol 34-233 1467
87 CajunVol 56-211 1464
88 Techboy 70-197 1451
89 War Birds 49-218 1442
90 Smokin Turkeys 22-245 1434
91 Pat OMalley 31-236 1376
92 Aaron Birkholz 10-257 1357
93 utvol2 11-256 1356
94 BirdDawg55 45-222 1351
95 IBleedVolOrange 10-257 1319
96 JohnCoctostan 0-267 1305
96 I guess Randy Sanders was good after all 0-267 1305

GRT 2018 Bowl Pick ‘Em

Yes, we’re also having a bowl pick ’em this year, and it’s now open for business. The bowl pick ’em will use the same rules used during the regular season. Because our printing equipment decided to step into tech eternity just after all of the Black Friday and Cyber Monday orders came in, the only prize this time around is bragging rights.

If you’ve played in one of our pools before, you should’ve received an email with sign-up instructions. You can also sign up using this link.

Tennessee at Memphis Preview

In a year when the Vols weren’t ranked third and didn’t just beat number one, this would still be a weekend for celebration. In this year, reflecting on the return of the Tennessee-Memphis rivalry is a joy on multiple levels.

The Vols and Tigers met annually from 1988-89 through 2001-02. Only six of those games featured a ranked Tennessee or Memphis squad: three for each side, and never in the same year. One of those came in December 1992, when #8 Memphis led by Penny Hardaway came to Knoxville and lost 70-59 to Allan Houston’s Vols. 

Memphis won the next three, then Kevin O’Neill and Jerry Green put together a five-game winning streak. Buzz Peterson’s first team lost by two to John Calipari’s first team, and then Calipari helped keep the rivalry paused.

It made me smile to read The Athletic’s oral history of the 2008 1 vs 2 Vols/Tigers clash:


“We went to their practice and Calipari expressed how much he did not like Tennessee in so many words. He was like, This is not a game. This is a war.”

Doc Evans, brother of Tyreke Evans

When it stopped, Buzz Peterson was trying to reload from Jerry Green’s four straight NCAA Tournament runs. Calipari was trying to rebuild his own image after sanctions at UMass and a failed three-year stint with the New Jersey Nets. Memphis hadn’t been to the NCAA Tournament in six years.

One part recruiting, one part football, one part Calipari – who would later champion playing anyone, anywhere, anytime, but clearly never wanted Tennessee home-and-home. By the time it returned in January 2006, Bruce Pearl was at Tennessee and Memphis was ranked fourth under Calipari. Pearl was a couple weeks away from the win over Florida that truly sparked that first-year run, and Memphis won at home 88-79 with Pearl raising Dane Bradshaw’s hand at the scorer’s table late in the game. But by the time it rolled back around the following year, the Vols were ready, and Chris Lofton put on what remains the single best individual performance from a Tennessee player in my post-Ernie/Bernie lifetime.

From there we got 1 vs 2, the first of three straight road wins in the series. Calipari went to Kentucky, then the Tigers went 3-0 against Cuonzo Martin the first two years, including a double overtime classic in Maui.

And then it was gone again. But now it’s back, for at least the next three years.

Calipari’s argument was, in part, that Tennessee benefited from playing Memphis far more than Memphis from playing Tennessee. If that was ever true while the two teams were playing, it was only in Pearl’s first year. The Vols were the Tigers’ equal on the floor afterward, and when Calipari left and Memphis bounced from a depleted Conference USA to the American? Now the opportunity has shifted hard to the Tigers.

Under Rick Barnes the Vols recruit nationally and successfully. Under Penny Hardaway, the spark is back on the banks of the Mississippi in ways Josh Pastner could never duplicate and Tubby Smith threatened to extinguish entirely. The Tigers haven’t made the NCAA or NIT since 2014. But Hardaway is doing work on the recruiting trail, including 7’0″ Memphis East five-star James Wiseman. 

Maybe my favorite part: while Pearl’s Tennessee teams quickly became the equal to Calipari’s Memphis teams, Barnes’ Tennessee teams have done the same with Calipari’s at Kentucky. Rick Barnes is 4-3 against the Cats at UT: his Vols are undefeated against Kentucky in Knoxville, beat the Cats in Rupp last season, won the SEC title and are currently ranked #3 to Kentucky’s #19. 

I’m grateful for Calipari the way Memphis fans should be grateful for Pearl: those two personalities gave that rivalry that little extra something. But this new chapter is exciting as well, with Barnes proving the Vols can be a stable force on the national scene, and Hardaway putting the Tigers back on the path to joining them. Fighting and blaming aside (on both sides), Tennessee and Memphis should play each other every year, no matter who thinks who gets the greater benefit. Both programs should be good enough to sustain it, and the rivalry deserves it.

This time around? Memphis is 5-4 and 118th in KenPom, but properly tested against the tier above them. Their best win is your choice of Yale in 2OT (99th KenPom) or South Dakota State (77th). But they also have a nine-point losses to LSU and an 11-point loss to #11 Texas Tech, who they led by nine at halftime before getting blown out in the second half.

The Tigers live by forcing turnovers (25th in turnover percentage) and getting offensive rebounds (33rd). 5’9″ freshman Tyler Harris is getting some early hype, knocking down 39.5% from three. But Hardaway is also getting the most out of his upperclassmen: 6’8″ senior Kyvon Davenport and 6’6″ senior Raynere Thornton are the forces on the glass, and Memphis can go small and aggressive on defense in a hurry.

The ascension in Knoxville, the hope in Memphis, and the rivalry itself should make for all kinds of fun tomorrow. High noon, ESPN. Welcome back, Memphis. I’m sure we’ll both keep pretending the other side missed it more than we did.

Go Vols.

Ranking the Gonzaga Win & Admiral Schofield’s Performance

Let’s rank yesterday even though it’s way too early to do so without the context of the entire season!

There are two clear-cut games at the top of my list. The Sweet 16 win over Ohio State will stand until the Vols make it to the Final Four; bonus points there from the 2007 Sweet 16 loss to the Buckeyes, properly avenged. And 1 vs 2 with Memphis in 2008 is fairly unassailable for the rest of all of our lives: the rivalry, Calipari, an undefeated Memphis and the Vols ascending to number one is once-in-a-lifetime stuff.

But after those two, it kind of depends on what you prefer. There’s a separate list of best Kentucky wins – last year at Rupp, Lofton at Rupp, beating them on the last day of the regular season to win the SEC East in Knoxville in 1999 (my personal favorite). There are wins on the way up, like 2006 vs Florida, that carry a “I can’t believe we’re doing this” quality. And that’s really how to best describe the last win over number one, when the Vols beat Kansas in 2010 after four players were suspended or dismissed just ten days earlier. 

Yesterday was not, “I can’t believe we’re doing this.” That felt like an Elite Eight game (or maybe a Final Four game, who knows!). It was two legitimate title contenders trading blows for 40 minutes; the 2008 Memphis game is the only comparison there. If that’s more your style – and hopefully it becomes more our style going forward – then I think you can make a case for that game as high as #3 on your list.

For me personally, I’m going 2010 Ohio State, 2008 Memphis, 1999 Kentucky, then yesterday, followed by 2010 Kansas and 2006 Florida. The rest of the season will determine how high or low it ultimately lands. Either way, it’s in pretty good company.

Perhaps even more impressive: let’s rank Admiral Schofield’s performance

The best individual performance I’ve seen from a Tennessee player is Chris Lofton vs Memphis in December 2006. People forget it because that shot over Durant was 17 days later, but in that game Lofton had 35 on only 8-of-24 shooting (plus 12-of-13 at the line). Against #17 Memphis, Lofton was 12-of-18, 6-of-11 from three, and scored 21 of his 34 points in the first half. It’s the best offensive performance – not just best three-point shooting – against a good team I’ve ever seen at Tennessee.

Yesterday, Schofield had 30 on #1 Gonzaga. He had 25 in the second half, and 11 in the last 3:18, including the game-winner.  

https://twitter.com/SeanFarnham/status/1071973319430176770

There have been some epic performances in school history. The iconic Ernie and Bernie games are both legion and before my time; the media guide highlights Ernie putting 43 on Kentucky in 1976, while Bernie had 40+ five different times. In my lifetime, Allan Houston had 43 in a 119-113 loss to LSU in Shaq’s freshman year. Ron Slay had 38, but the quality of opponent (New Mexico) will keep him a little further down the list. More recently we’ve seen Grant Williams with 37 at Vanderbilt and Kevin Punter with 36 vs #24 South Carolina.  

I think it’s at least safe to say that Schofield’s performance yesterday was the best we’ve seen since Lofton. In the aforementioned Lofton-at-Rupp game in 2006, he had 31 on 7-of-10 from the arc, Tennessee’s first win in Lexington in seven years. I’d still put the Lofton-vs-Memphis performance at number one, and probably Lofton-at-Rupp number two. But Schofield yesterday might be number three in the post-Allan Houston era. He was a volume shooter all day, but the late flurry helped him finish at 12-of-22 and 6-of-10 from the arc. Gonzaga wasn’t known for their defense, but that was still the number one team in the nation. Again, pretty good list to be on. 

#7 Tennessee 76 #1 Gonzaga 73: Sir, Yes Sir

Tennessee took 72 shots to Gonzaga’s 59, pulled down 16 offensive rebounds and only turned it over seven times. The Zags countered by getting to the free throw line: 19 attempts to Tennessee’s 10, though either team shooting it better could’ve won today with the Vols at 60% and Gonzaga at 63%. If you were a casual fan just watching two Top 10 teams, you got your money’s worth: Hachimura and Clarke each had 21 for Gonzaga, while Schofield – we’ll get to him in a minute – had 30 and Grant Williams added 16-12-7.

The box score at ESPN lists only six blocked shots in this game – four for the Vols, two for Gonzaga – but it felt like thrice as many. We knew going in these were two of the best shot-blocking teams in the nation, and boy did it live up to it. Brandon Clarke had one of the best blocks I’ve ever seen in my life on Yves Pons; Tennessee has a player like Pons who will try to dunk with no regard for his own life for the first time in forever. But the Vols answered with blocks that would have seemed spectacular had they taken place in any other game, but were just as critical. Two of them belonged to John Fulkerson, who played a bunch as the Vol bigs were saddled with foul trouble in the first half.

The threat of those blocks definitely affected Tennessee, especially after offensive rebounds. Jordan Bone was 2-for-13, Kyle Alexander had only two points, and Schofield took 22 shots.

But he made them count.

Gonzaga led by nine with 6:15 to play. The Vols stayed alive behind Jordan Bowden and Jordan Bone: a Bowden three, a Bone fast break layup, and another Bowden three cut it to three less than 90 seconds later. Grant Williams scored to get it back to three with 3:38 to play. 

Schofield would bury a three to tie it on the next possession, but the story shifted back to Grant Williams, who fouled out with 2:49 to play. Williams missed the overtime against #2 Kansas in Brooklyn, and the Vols failed to get a stop in the extra session without him, ultimately falling to the Jayhawks. 

Not this time.

After Williams fouled out, the Zags sank three free throws. But they went 0-for-4 from the floor. Meanwhile, the Vols went to Schofield:

  • Three to tie it at 68 at 3:18
  • Jumper to pull within one at 2:19
  • Banked three for the lead at 1:20
  • NBA three for the lead for good with 24 seconds left
https://twitter.com/marchmadness/status/1071892970083966976

With Gonzaga looking for answers, Jordan Bowden did a fantastic job covering Zach Norvell and denying him the ball. Norvell and Schofield had been jawing for most of the second half (what kind of crazy person talks to Schofield, I have no idea). The Admiral got the last laugh.

Gonzaga had not scored less than 81 points this year. They left with 73 and a loss today. Tennessee beat the number one team in the nation for the first time since 2010, and you’d be hard pressed to find a win like this in the eight years since. 

A game like this in December is really about March, where last year the Vols won the SEC. But a win like this in December allows us to take a look at the ceiling and nod. Yep, it’ll hold.

Go Vols.

Tennessee vs Gonzaga Preview

Gonzaga will be the third KenPom Top 50 opponent the Vols have faced in their first eight games. But we’re only scheduled to face three others between mid-December and mid-February. Tennessee’s SEC schedule is back-loaded this year: both dates with Kentucky fall in the last seven games, and the regular season ends with Mississippi State and Auburn. Other than those three conference foes, the only current KenPom Top 50 teams left on the schedule are Florida (January 12 & February 9) and West Virginia (January 26).

If Tennessee is thinking about a one seed and wants to get there via something other than a run at an undefeated season in SEC play, this would be a good win to get. When it’s the team with #1 next to their name on the other side, you typically don’t need additional motivation. But the Vols, having already flirted with #2 Kansas, have earned the right to think about more than just beating the top team for a day.

To do that? Defense better travel.

Gonzaga is number one in KenPom’s offensive ratings. They hung 91 on Arizona, 89 on Duke, and 103 on Creighton. The Bulldogs shoot 38.8% from three and 61.2% from two. The latter is second-best in the country, and the two combine to give Gonzaga the nation’s fourth best effective field goal percentage. They’re also 13th in turnover percentage, giving the ball away on just 14.7% of possessions.

The Vols have experience facing such a great offense: last year KenPom’s top two offenses belonged to Villanova and Purdue. For Gonzaga, Rui Hachimura gets top billing here – leading scorer, hit the game-winner against Washington on Wednesday – but KenPom loves what Brandon Clarke, Zach Norvell, and Josh Perkins are doing behind him.

Hachimura is more of a volume scorer and gets to the line. If you want raw efficiency, Brandon Clarke is 62-of-86 (72.1%) on the year, 14th nationally in effective field goal percentage and 25th in offensive rebounding percentage. Throw in 6’11” Filip Petrusev off the bench, and the Vols will have their hands full on the defensive interior. It’s easy to spend too much time on Hachimura and simply get beat by Clarke instead.

Luckily, the Vols will bring Grant Williams, Admiral Schofield, and Kyle Alexander to the party. These match-ups when Gonzaga has the ball should be so much fun to watch. Unlike going against Kansas or North Carolina the last two years, the Vols and Gonzaga are built much more in each other’s image: lineups full of upperclassmen, guys who play well together, and multiple ways to beat you.

If the Vols can work Gonzaga to a draw inside, you still have to defend Norvell and Perkins in the back court. Norvell is the designated three-point shooter, launching 8.7 per game and hitting 38.5%. Perkins is the senior point guard, 33rd nationally in assist rate and also plenty capable from three (38.9% on four attempts per game) and a 90% free throw shooter. There are no weak spots, and those four guys all run 26-32 minutes per game.

The good news: Tennessee is 12th nationally in defensive efficiency. The Vols are capable of defending well enough to win this thing.

Is Gonzaga? They beat Duke in part because R.J. Barrett went 9-of-25 and the Blue Devils didn’t defend well against Gonzaga’s ball screens. They bested Creighton by getting to the line 17 more times than their opponent. And their last-second win over Washington included Gonzaga shooting 19-of-19 at the line.

I expect Tennessee to offer a greater challenge on the defensive end than Washington, Creighton, and Duke-in-Maui (as opposed to Duke-in-March). And the Vols should also be just as capable, if not more so, of attacking on the offensive end. Gonzaga does not force turnovers, 295th nationally. Opportunities should be there for Tennessee to run its offense and take advantage, even if Lamonte Turner is still limited.

Perhaps the biggest question for this game: who wins the shot-blocking/foul-calling battle? Gonzaga is 48th in shot-blocking percentage and 41st in fewest shots blocked. The Vols are 23rd in shot-blocking percentage and fourth in the nation in fewest shots blocked, getting rejected on just 3.8% of attempts. Tennessee is slightly better at shot-blocking, Gonzaga slightly better at getting to the line. But the single best player at getting to the line in this game is still Grant Williams.

This one should be all kinds of fun. Kansas proved we’re at the point where we can take Tennessee quite seriously in beating the number one team in the nation. Let’s go do it.

Sunday, 3:00 PM in Phoenix, where great things involving number one teams have happened to this university before. Put some orange in your Advent wardrobe on Sunday morning.

Go Vols.

 

Strikes and Gutters, Ups and Downs: Taking the Temperature of the Board

With one more week of coaches visits across the country, Tennessee’s recruiting board for the class of 2019 looks as jumbled as ever.  The staff has been solidifying current commitments while at the same time trying to complete the class, and below we take a look at how things look heading into the penultimate weekend for the Early Signing Day

Temperature Down

LB Owen Pappoe has been an Auburn commitment since May, but many thought he would ultimately flip to Tennessee and join his high school teammate Wanya Morris.  After visiting Knoxville unofficially in November and then setting up an OV for this coming weekend – all while not setting up an OV to Auburn – things were certainly trending that way.  However, after an inhome visit from Auburn Head Coach Gus Malzahn and most of the Tiger staff – and despite a visit from a few Tennessee staffers – Pappoe on Wednesday tweeted out a reaffirmation of his commitment to Auburn and then proceeded to cancel his OV to Tennessee this weekend.  While Jeremy Pruitt still has his inhome available, it remains to be seen if that will happen and how effective it might even be in securing a visit from Pappoe, whose mother by all indications is adamant that he keep his word and sign with Auburn and who would absolutely need to be persuaded in order to have her son sign with UT.  This might not be 100% over, but in a matter of hours it went from looking like the Vols were going to sign this highly touted LB/Star to that being very doubtful

CB Kenyatta Watson is a Texas commitment who the Vols have been trying to flip for months.  Also a teammate of Morris, the Tennessee staff has visited him multiple times in the last few weeks in an attempt to at least get him to take an OV to Knoxville.  So far that effort has proved fruitless, and at this point it seems more likely than Watson simply shuts it down and signs with Texas in two weeks than that he ever sets foot in Knoxville

DL Justin Eboigbe is an Alabama commitment who has visited Tennessee a few times, most recently unofficially for the Kentucky game in November.  And while the Vols were hoping he’d follow that up with an OV to Knoxville before he signs, he will be visiting Miami this weekend and then Alabama the next.  He was always a longshot to actually flip from the Tide, but the Vols were at least going to need an OV to give them a fighting chance.  Without that you can probably cross him off the list

DL Zion Logue and Bill Norton are two Tennessee natives and Georgia commitments who the Vols have been trying to flip for months.  And while Logue has continued to harbor hard feelings towards Tennessee for not being the first school to offer, Norton as recently as Thursday morning was thought to be a real contender for a flip.  However, a visit from the UGA staff seems to have convinced him to take his OV to Georgia this weekend and shut it down.  Once again this one might not be completely over for the Vols but it’s gone from promising to unlikely in a blink of an eye.  Such is recruiting…

RB DJ Williams has blown up since his senior film got out, and while Tennessee was one of the first major schools to offer him, and have visited him during the open period, they never seemed to get much traction.  At this point it appears they won’t get a visit and Williams is likely headed to either Miami or another school in the SEC

LB Quarvaris Crouch has been a longtime target for the Vols and at one time was considered a Tennessee lean.  However, despite taking an OV to Knoxville late in the season, this one seems to have finally and completely slipped away from the Vols despite the staff’s best efforts.  At this point Crouch is a heavy Clemson lean with Michigan right behind them and the Vols a distant and irrelevant third

Temperature Up

It’s not all doom and gloom this week, as Tennessee has made some major headway with more than a handful of its high level targets

WR Jaylen Ellis, a Baylor commitment in name only, has confirmed that he will be taking his OV to Knoxville the weekend of December 14th.  He’s perhaps going to be at Houston this weekend, which would mean that his Tennessee OV will be his 5th and final.  His current plan is to announce at the All-America Game in early January and sign in December, but the Vols have placed themselves in very good position.  One would think that Ellis, especially as a kid from Texas, would very much take a shine to Tennessee hiring current Houston OC Kendall Briles as its leader on offense.  Whoever the hire is should be wrapped up by the time Ellis comes to campus, so that could play a factor here

RB Eric Gray received another visit from Tennessee coaches this week and the vibe continues to be good here for the Vols.  As discussed below he could potentially be in Oxford this weekend, but all signs point to the Gatorade Player of the Year and 3-time Tennessee Mr. Football signing with UT in two weeks.  Gray is another prospect who will be very interested in Tennessee’s OC hire

LB Trezeman Marshall also got a ton of facetime with Tennessee coaches this week, and it remains clear that the Vols are in deep with this current UGA commitment.  Georgia still has its OV should Marshall choose to visit there, but that is TBD.  Especially with the Pappoe news, Marshall becomes that much more important for Tennessee at a position of extreme need

LB Henry To’oto’to is another important LB target for the Vols, and while this is a Tennessee-Alabama race there is no doubt that Tennessee is putting in more work here currently than the Tide.  TE Coach Brian Niedermeyer has been out to California twice in the last 2-3 week to visit with the Army All-American, and when he signs in February Alabama could be full at the position.  This one has a ways to go as both SEC schools will get OVs in January and West Coast powers won’t give up, but right now the Vols are in about as good of a spot as they could hope to be

LB Chris Russell from Dyersburg is a newer player on Tennessee’s board but, especially considering the Pappoe news, has moved up at least one rung.  The former Memphis commit is seeing his recruitment go the opposite direction of current Tennessee commitment Jailil Clemons (more below) as he’s picked up offers from Auburn and Texas A&M to go with one from the Vols in the last month or so.  Russell has good size and speed – he tested very well at a Tennessee camp this past summer – and his senior film is outstanding.  He’s a February signee so Tennessee, like other suitors, will be able to reassess their overall needs and room post-December 19th.  But given that Marshall is a UGA commitment from Georgia and the Vols are fighting Alabama for To’oto’to it’s not unlikely that there will still be a need for Tennessee at LB come January and Russell will start getting more attention from the Vols

OL EJ Ndoma-Ogar is an Oklahoma commitment from Texas who sort of showed up out of the blue for an OV in Knoxville for the Alabama game and had an incredible trip.  While he has remained committed to the Sooners, Vol coaches have not given up and have visited him on more than one occasion in the contact period.  Tennessee is trying to get him to hold off on signing in December – when he would almost certainly sign with OU – and instead wait until February and come back to Knoxville with his family.  Should that happen the Vols would obviously have to be considered to be in strong shape, and regardless of what happens with 5-star OL Darnell Wright – for whom the Vols continue to lead but who won’t sign until February – Ndoma-Ogar is a 100% take for Tennessee.  We’ll know more in a few weeks

DB Jammie Robinson from Georgia has been to Tennessee once this fall for UF game.  UT’s tie here is his former high school coach Shelton Felton who is on Tennessee’s staff, and Felton – who has been on the road since Tyson Helton left the staff – paid Robinson a visit this week.  Robinson is a February signee and the he currently only has a UK visit set up for the 12/14 weekend after taking one in the summer to South Carolina.  The Vols are in line to get one, however, and although UGA is sniffing around here this one looks like a Tennessee-South Carolina battle right now.  With Kenyatta Watson basically falling off the board, Robinson is one of a very few DBs who are legitimate targets.  He’s a dynamic playmaker and would add a ton of speed and athleticism to a Tennessee secondary that needs it in spades despite a strong current commitment list

CB Travis Jay is a new name to the board.  The FSU commitment is not signing until February and is adamant about taking visits.  Florida, Alabama, and Tennessee are among a handful of major programs who are trying to wedge their way into this one, and after some of the Vols staff visited Jay this week he stated that at least both Tennessee and UF would get January OVs.  FSU isn’t giving up here though, so this will be a battle for the Vols should they continue to try and remain players here

Tennessee recently started showing interest in Arkansas RB commitment A’Montae Spivey.  Spivey is coming off winning a state title for Phenix City Central HS in Alabama’s top classification (7A) and some consider him to have the best size/speed combination in the state. He’s a February signee so there’s lots of time here, but file that name away should the Vols find themselves with room for a 2nd RB to go with (hopefully) Gray

Who’s Coming to Knoxville this Weekend?

Despite this being the second to last visit weekend before the Early Signing Period begins on 12/19, as of this writing only commitments Tyus Fields, Jackson Lampley and Elijah Simmons are confirmed as an official visitor for Tennessee.  There have been rumblings of Tennessee getting 5-star Jadon Haselwood to campus for an unofficial visit.  He’s taken 4 OVs and he’s booked to be in Athens the 12/14 weekend so that would be a win for the Vols to get him on campus, but until he shows up that’s simply a rumor and regardless the odds are he signs with UGA.  Another prospects who’s been rumored to come to Knoxville is WR Khafre Brown, a Vol lean who Tennessee would take in a heartbeat.  One would think that Tennessee will get some more visitors to campus this weekend, but as of now it’s relatively light

Other Weekend Visits to Watch

With Tennessee’s weekend visitor list up in the air, Vol coaches and fans will be watching prospects take visits elsewhere and hope that no one else comes off the board

Current Tennessee commitment OLB Jalil Clemons has booked a trip to Memphis to visit the Tigers this weekend, and it looks like for all intents and purposes that he will not sign with the Vols. Reports suggest that no Tennessee coaches have visited him since the contact period began, he doesn’t have a UT OV scheduled, and when a Mississippi kid doesn’t have offers from the big instate schools and in fact is visiting a G5 school you can see the writing on the wall.  Clemons is a solid prospect whose profile – from size to offers – is probably a better fit for a program like Memphis, and this will give Tennessee another spot in this class

RB Eric Gray is currently scheduled to visit Ole Miss this weekend, but according to the 247 Ole Miss site that visit isn’t confirmed and in fact old friend Robert Gillespie is trying to get Gray to visit Columbia, SC to see what the Cock$ have to offer.  Obviously Tennessee would prefer neither visit to occur, but if I were the Vols my preference would be South Carolina, where he’s been infrequently if in fact ever, vs. Ole Miss, who is considered to be Tennessee’s main competition at the moment

JUCO DL Nick Figureoa and Keonte Schad will be taking OVs to Virginia Tech and Minnesota, respectively.  What will be interesting to find out – assuming he doesn’t commit on the visit – is how the California native Figureoa feels about the cross country travel to Blacksburg and how that impacts his feeling about not just attending Tennessee but simply taking an OV to Knoxville.  He’s got numerous other options for his last (12/14) visit weekend and it’s far from a sure thing that Tennessee lands it.  For Schad, his visit to Minnesota will see the Gophers staff try to solidify their commitment.  Should he not shut it down and elect to take his last OV next weekend, Tennessee will be in a fight with Oklahoma for that one.  Given the needs at DL I think the Vols would happily take either or both prospects

JUCO Rush End Niadre Zouzoua will be visiting Baylor.  Zouzoua had originally been planning to officially visit Tennessee this weekend and Baylor the next, but it remains unclear if he’s going to swap weekends or simply not visit UT.  He’s an EE with good size and burst from the edge, and with the absolute dearth of other Rush End options it would be good for Tennessee to at least get him on campus to give themselves a chance should they want to sign him.  We’ll see…

LB Jamie Pettway will be visiting Georgia Tech, and while he’s currently a backup option for the Vols at LB and won’t be signing until February he’s a solid prospect and Tennessee could circle back with him after the December signing period depending on how things go with other LBs higher on the board

Three Questions for Anyone We Hire

Why was the offense so slow in 2018?

With Tyson Helton moving on as the head coach at Western Kentucky, it becomes a little easier to view his time in Knoxville objectively. We pointed to Tennessee’s pace of play throughout the season, and it’s especially jarring at the end: 716 total snaps was the lowest total in the post-Fulmer era, and last in the SEC by a huge margin (Mississippi State was 13th with 763 total snaps – stats via SportSource Analytics). This has to be taken into account when throwing around season totals: the Vols were thus last in the SEC in yards per game, as you’d expect with such few opportunities. But per play, the Vols were 12th at 5.46 ypp, just behind Auburn at 5.47 and ahead of LSU and Arkansas. That number isn’t anything to write home about, but neither is Tennessee’s decade…and in that context, the Vol offense was more productive per play than 2011, 2013, 2014, and last year’s atrocious 4.77. And something we always need to repeat, even though we’re used to it: the Vols played one of the nation’s most difficult schedules, #2 in S&P+. The going is never easy in Knoxville.

From game one, it was the theme in 2018: competence without excellence, better than last year though it would’ve been hard to be worse. In 2017 the Vols had so few snaps (732) in large part because they were that bad offensively. Larry Scott’s offense punted more often (5.9 per game to 5.5 this year), turned it over more (18 to 16), and was significantly worse on third down (30.67% to 38.22%). Last year the Vols ran so few plays because they had no other option. This year the Vols seemed to be going slow with more purpose. Will that be a theme going forward? How long will Jeremy Pruitt feel a need to protect his defense?

In Tennessee’s advanced statistical profile (via Bill Connelly) the Vols finished the regular season 30th in passing explosiveness and 23rd in third-and-long success rate. The offense finished 62nd in S&P+ – again, nothing to celebrate, but significantly better than the defense (96th) fared. That’s not a knock on Jeremy Pruitt; I think both numbers say more about Butch Jones than anyone. But I also think this trend will continue into 2019, regardless of who serves as offensive coordinator.

Will the offense be encouraged to lead the way in 2019?

If Tennessee’s biggest problems this fall were in the trenches – can’t block, can’t get pressure on the quarterback – the former seems to stand a much better chance of improving given the entire starting defensive line will graduate. Tennessee’s offensive line should benefit from a healthy Brandon Kennedy and an additional year of experience for some players, plus the arrival of five-star Wanya Morris and four-star Jackson Lampley. But right now, I’m not sure who the starters will be on the defensive line, let alone the backups, and the 2019 class currently holds no blue-chip commitments for that unit.

More than that, all of Tennessee’s offensive starters could/should return from a unit that was slow, but had its moments. In the right hands, the Vol offense could be potent in 2019; in anyone’s hands, they might still have to lead the way as Pruitt rebuilds the defensive line.

So whose hands those ultimately end up being is important, both for making the most of the returning experience next year, but also having the trust of the head coach. I don’t know how much the head coach’s fingerprints were on the Vols being so deliberate/slow this season. I do assume Pruitt needs someone he can trust more fully in the OC role; we’ve seen far too many well-regarded coordinators turn out to be a bad fit with the head coach, creating unfruitful compromises.

If it’s Hugh Freeze…

Along those lines, we might be a little too easily convinced Freeze is the best or only option. Aside from the obvious and the NCAA issues, both of which make me uncomfortable, Freeze could present more problems with both the floor and the ceiling.

Pruitt’s initial staff was built on pre-existing relationships; in some ways there’s a greater risk of failure in bringing in an outsider and hoping the fit is right. There’s a chance Freeze’s name ends up on a list with Bob Shoop: a great coach in a different setting, but if his vision clashes with that of the head coach (or if, when the going gets tough, Freeze – whose only coordinator gig was one year at Arkansas State – doesn’t respond well as the OC when he knows what it’s like to win big as the HC) it simply might not be a great fit.

And I don’t disagree, at all, that Pruitt needs to hire someone he can trust and put more of the offense in their hands; hopefully that’s part of a lesson he learned in his first year on the job. I’d simply imagine it’s a little harder to do that with someone you haven’t worked with in the past, and that Freeze isn’t the only one who can pull that off.

There’s also certainly a great chance of reward with Freeze, who worked wonders at Ole Miss…but if he’s everything some of us want him to be, how long is he in Knoxville? I get that you can’t hire scared, and it’s a good sign for your program when assistants are being promoted elsewhere. But for the Vols in the midst of a serious rebuild, with a defensive-minded head coach who needs a trustworthy, fruitful relationship with his offensive coordinator? I don’t see many scenarios where Freeze is a long-term answer. How much does it help Tennessee to have Hugh Freeze for one year? I’m not sure that’s what’s best for Tennessee right now, aside from the other red flags.

Regardless of your feelings on Freeze, it would be a different kind of red flag if Pruitt wanted to hire him and was turned down somewhere up the food chain. It might be a wise move for Tennessee administratively, but it’s never a good day at the office when the football coach at Tennessee is prevented from getting what he wants. I don’t know if that’s happening, or if it is how any of us would know for sure. But Pruitt would certainly know.

The Vols have everyone coming back on offense, including proven skill players and a quarterback with potential. Pruitt has a year under his belt that saw the offense play slow and, at times, perhaps limit itself. The offense will almost certainly lead the way in 2019. This is a good job with more than one good option out there. It’s an important hire that will require a lot of trust in a long-term rebuild. We’ll learn a lot by where Pruitt and the Vols ultimately turn. But the real answers are, as always, only available on Saturdays in the fall.

Recruiting News and Notes for the Week Ended 11/30

The first week of the offseason and contact period was an eventful one across the country and especially for the Vols.  Below we take a look at a few of the emerging storylines and what to look for going forward.

Vols Strike Big with 2020 QB Commitment

The big news was obviously the commitment of bigtime 2020 QB Harrison Bailey.  We’ve got you covered on the analysis of that massive commitment that along with JUCO DL Jordan Davis has set up Tennessee with cornerstones on both sides of the ball.  Bailey will also be the peer-recruiting face of the class for the Vols, which should pay big dividends in 2020.

Follow the Visits – Vols Solidify Commitments and Look to Expand the Board

Pruitt and company hit the road to visit many of their current commitments, with Pruitt himself using his one in-home visit on most of Tennessee’s commitments who are very solid and also December signees/early enrollees, such as Ramel Keyton, Tank McCullough and Warren Burrell among others.

Tennessee also hit the bigtime names you know this week, including OL Darnell Wright (a February signee); LB Owen Pappoe (for whom they locked down what should be his last OV, the 12/7 weekend) and his teammate DB Kenyatta Watson (Texas commitment who has yet to decide on an OV to the Real UT); LB Trezeman Marshall (UGA commit for whom the Vols are hot on the Dawgs’ heels); DB Jammie Robinson; and LB Henry To’oto’to* in California.

*Alabama – Tennessee’s presumed top competition – picked up a commitment this week from LB Kevin Harris and appears to be the leader for 5-star LB Nakobe Dean from MS.  Will the Tide have room come February for To’oto’to?  That remains to be seen, but especially since Dean’s other frontrunner is UGA, Vol fans should be rooting for the Tide in that battle to potentially give Tennessee a leg up in the To’oto’to sweepstakes.  To’oto’to could be even more important for the Vols if they can’t flip Marshall from UGA before he signs in December.

Pruitt also used his inhomes on a handful of uncommitted prospects who are either close to decisions (e.g., RB Eric Gray) or are committed elsewhere and with whom the Vols are trying to get back (e.g., UGA DL commitments Bill Norton and Zion Logue).  Gray still appears to be a Tennessee lean but at the same time right now is scheduled to take OVs to Ole Miss (12/8) and Alabama (TBD).  The extent to which those were used at the right time will be known when and if those prospects lock in OVs with the Vols and of course when they make their final decisions, but Pruitt clearly made some calculated decisions on allocations of time and resources.

In terms of trying to get involved with some other players, Tennessee’s staff (not Pruitt) also visited Oklahoma OL commitment EJ Ndoma-Ogar – who took a UT OV during the season and is currently planning on signing in December but hasn’t 100% decided; DL’s committed elsewhere such as Justin Eboigbe (Alabama) and Jaren Handy (Auburn); as well as ATH Quarvaris Crouch (still considered a Clemson lean) and Rush-End Khris Bogle (heavy Miami lean but Vols haven’t given up- I’d love to be surprised but I don’t see it, especially since Bogle’s already taken his UT OV).  Additionally, as discussed earlier in the week, Tennessee visited and offered Dyersburg LB Chris Russell (a February signee) and also circled back with LB Jamie Pettway while visiting former Florida LB commitment Jamal Adams from Birmingham, who is also receiving interest from LSU, Auburn, and Mississippi State.  Tennessee also visited and offered Minnesota JUCO DL commitment Keonte Schad (a December signee and early enrollee) and while he hasn’t formally scheduled an OV they clearly piqued his interest.  He’s got his Minnesota OV scheduled for the 12/7 weekend so there are two more in which he could get to Knoxville, with Oklahoma also looming after recently offering as well.  Finally, Tennessee visited with FSU DB commitment Travis Jay, another February signee who could see increased attention from the Vols and others depending on how December goes.

Addressing the Need for Speed

Quite simply, the Vols have a major need for speed on offense, and while track star WR Khafre Brown is considered a Vol lean, he’s not committed yet and Tennessee could even conceivably take a 3rd WR in the class if things break that way.  To that end, Tennessee’s staff successfully turned assistant coaches visits into OVs for Texas WR (and Baylor commit) Jaylen Ellis as well as WR Xavier Legette from South Carolina.  Legette is more of a late-bloomer on the recruiting scene than the Army All-American Ellis, but while Legette is geographically closer, from this vantage point Ellis is the more likely Tennessee signee.  The Vols will get his last OV (12/14 weekend) before he announces his decision at the A-A Bowl and he certainly appears to see the need Tennessee has at his position and the chance for early playing time.  Baylor won’t let go without a fight, and Texas is trying to get involved as well, but if that OV occurs and goes well Ellis could end up a Vol.  In contrast, Legette has been on campus in Columbia multiple times and it just seems like he’s destined to be a Gamecock.  Tennessee had seemed to get involved with 5-star WR Jadon Haselwood, a former UGA commitment, but at this point the Vols appear to have faded.  We’ll see if things change there, but as of now the trio of Brown/Ellis/Legette appear to be the most realistic WRs on the board.

Weekend Visits to Watch

While Tennessee isn’t expected to have any official visitors on campus this weekend, some prospects the Vols are recruiting will be officially visiting elsewhere:

Aforementioned UGA DL commitments Norton and Logue are allegedly going to be visiting Ole Miss this weekend, though neither have been confirmed.  Were either of those visits to happen they would obviously be indicative of softness in the respective recruitments.  Both have been to Oxford this season so I wouldn’t count the Rebels out, but again should those visits indeed occur it could signal that the Vols actually have more of a chance with either/both of them than currently thought.

Emerging JUCO DL target Nick Figureoa will be OV’ing at UCLA, who at this time is his presumed favorite.  Figureoa is both an early enrollee as well as a 3-for-3 player, and as such is a pretty valuable prospect on a Tennessee DL board that for the most part only contains players committed elsewhere.  If Figureoa comes out of the weekend uncommitted the Vols will look to get him on campus in the next two weeks for an OV and he could emerge as a very important piece of the puzzle.

Another DL target, NY native Jared Harrison-Hunte, will be headed to Penn State after OV’ing to OSU last weekend.  He previously had an OV scheduled to UT for the 12/14 weekend but that’s been changed and he’s now going to Michigan State that weekend instead.  Penn State has been considered the favorite for Harrison-Hunte, so like Figureoa it will be interesting to see if he comes out of this visit to his presumed leader without committing and shutting it down.  He’s currently planning on waiting until February to sign and will have one more OV left, so the Vols – along with FSU and Miami – will try and get the last one.

Auburn WR commitment George Pickens hasn’t been shy about visiting elsewhere and this weekend will be officially visiting LSU.  Tennessee is a peripheral player at the moment but has been trying to get more involved, and if/when Auburn OC Chip Lindsay leaves (whether to Tennessee or elsewhere) Pickens’ commitment could be even more tenuous.  Pickens is also a February signee so depending on what happens with other WRs on Tennessee’s board they could try and push.

 

Getting Better in Big and Small Ways

Through the first six games, we haven’t seen anything from Rick Barnes’ Vols to suggest last year wasn’t the real thing. And despite the pain of an overtime loss to #2 Kansas, there are encouraging signs the Vols are going to be even better.

There’s this, first of all:

I remember watching his highlights on YouTube against the likes of the Lithuanian under-17 national team, and telling myself not to get too excited. I think it’s okay to get excited now.

Pons has gone from playing five minutes per game to fifteen. The best is yet to come – the Vols don’t need him to peak this season – but it’s exciting to think about what that best could look like.

It’s not just Pons who’s seeing increased minutes. Right now Tennessee is running Grant Williams, Admiral Schofield, and Jordan Bone roughly 32 minutes per game, plus 29 from Jordan Bowden and 28 from Kyle Alexander. Last year no one averaged more than 28.8 minutes per game. For all the early-season chatter about playing a 10-man rotation, the Vols are basically rolling eight deep right now with spot duty from Derrick Walker and Jalen Johnson.

The Vols are still really good at some of the important pieces of the puzzle from last year, including assist rate (68%, fifth nationally). Increased roles for Alexander and Pons show up on both ends of the floor in blocked shots: only 3.8% of Tennessee’s shots get blocked, seventh nationally. And the Vols are sending back 13.8% of the shots they face, 34th nationally. This is a big part of Tennessee’s defense, which continues to be their calling card: 54th nationally in effective FG% allowed, and opponents are shooting just 29.7% from the arc in the early going.

Maybe the best news of all: Tennessee isn’t shooting well from the arc either. And the Vols are still rolling.

31.8% from three is good for 228th nationally. A 9-of-21 performance against Louisiana is the only one to write home about; Jordan Bowden is off to a decent start at 38.1%, but Jordan Bone and Lamonte Turner are both shooting a cool 20%.

But so far, the Vols are dramatically better at scoring inside the arc.

It was their biggest weakness last year, shooting just 47.3% from two (278th nationally). This year: 56.7%, 38th nationally. Kyle Alexander was great at the rim last year (67.9%) and is off to a good start this year (64%). But look at the rest of the team:

2018 2019
Williams 0.497 0.618
Schofield 0.483 0.490
Turner 0.403 0.444
Bowden 0.392 0.500
Bone 0.396 0.526
Pons 0.455 1.000
Fulkerson 0.429 0.636

A healthier Fulkerson and an unleashed Pons are making a difference. Bowden’s numbers are nice to see, though he’s still most valuable to the Vols from behind the arc. But the biggest differences: Jordan Bone is finishing at the rim, and Grant Williams is finishing at the rim the first time instead of living via offensive rebounds. Williams is also starting to get the superstar whistle: he’s 15th nationally in fouls drawn per 40 minutes (via KenPom).

Overall, the Vols are 10th in KenPom and one of just eight squads with a Top 20 offense and defense in those rankings, a metric every national champion other than 2014 UConn has hit since 2002.

This becomes a weekend sport for a minute now: Texas A&M Corpus Christi (314th in KenPom) on Sunday, then the showdown with Gonzaga next Sunday, then a trip to Memphis to renew the rivalry on Saturday, December 15. There’s plenty of time to keep getting better before SEC play, where five teams are in the KenPom Top 30 and seven others are in the Top 80. But so far, any concerns that last year was a nice story the Vols would have a hard time duplicating have been replaced by better basketball, more athleticism, and a higher ceiling.

 

Why Harrison Bailey Could Finally Be the Key For Tennessee

It’s ridiculous to anoint a high school junior as the savior of a long-dormant program. But, for Tennessee fans needing a future on which to cling with no present to speak of, Thursday’s commitment from Marietta (Ga.) High School 4-star quarterback Harrison Bailey meant more than just an announcement from a talented high school kid.

Though Bailey could still reclassify as a 2019 recruit [he says he won’t], his pledge for the Vols could be the key that turns Jeremy Pruitt’s already-quality recruiting toward elite status.

Could Bailey change his mind? Yes, any time. But signal-callers normally don’t. Bailey is a 2020 pledge, so there’s still more than a year until he can be on the field for a Tennessee team that desperately needs him now. But the future UT quarterback means a lot to everybody involved — fans, players, and a coaching staff that needed some good news after a 5-7 first year.

Bailey is arguably the best quarterback in the class-after-next, and given the the fact that the Vols haven’t gone out and gotten an elite high school quarterback since Jarrett Guarantano, this was necessary. Bailey committed to UT over Michigan on Thursday at a quick and classy ceremony at his school. When he gave the VFL sign, the Periscope video panned to the crowd where UT ’19 wide receiver commitment Ramel Keyton was visibly excited.  If things go as planned, Keyton will be one of Bailey’s top targets on the Hill, much the way he was at Marietta High.

It’s a testament to Pruitt’s recruiting prowess that Bailey committed to Tennessee despite the Vols’ former offensive coordinator Tyson Helton left to be the head coach at Western Kentucky. It’s a testament to the program Pruitt is trying to build and how he connects to recruits that Bailey chose to go to Knoxville over an established program like Michigan.

Though Guarantano showed signs of development this year, he didn’t have any real coaching until Year 3 in the program, and who knows just how much that stunted his growth? Who knows how good J.T. Shrout and Brian Maurer will be, but neither one was heavily recruited, so it’s not like UT went out and beat a bunch of elite programs for those guys even though one or both could turn out to be quality players.

But Bailey is a next-level recruit, and the last time the Vols went out and got one of those marquee guys who is a pure quarterback who can drop back and throw dimes was Jonathan Crompton. Yes, it’s been that long. Tyler Bray developed into an erratic gunslinger who led a prolific offense on a bad UT team, and Joshua Dobbs was a tremendous player whose athleticism helped UT overcome the limitations of Butch Jones’ offense. Neither was the prospect Bailey is.

He’s a legit 6’4″ and 217 pounds and has a rifle arm. He plays on a loaded Marietta High team [where one of his coaches and a big influence is former UT star Derrick Tinsley] and he is surrounded by stars like Keyton, 2020 5-star tight end/athlete Arik Gilbert, defensive end B.J. Ojulari, and Ohio State commit Jake Wray [brother of OSU OL Max Wray, who committed to the Buckeyes over the Vols when he was a Midstate prospect].

Could Bailey get the Vols’ foot in the door with some of those prospects? Absolutely with Gilbert, though Ojulari [whose brother is at Georgia] and Wray [whose brother is at Ohio State] are long shots. But it’s not just Marietta High prospects who could flock to UT. When you’ve got a stud signal-caller from a hotbed like the Atlanta area, he can bring elite high school prospects from around the region with him.

Think about when Hunter Johnson committed to Tennessee, and his pledge was a big influence on Oak Ridge star receiver Tee Higgins. When Johnson flipped from the Vols to Clemson, it was an ugly sign of things to come for the Butch Jones regime. What happened soon after? Higgins flipped, too. Now, though Johnson has transferred to Northwestern in the wake of Trevor Lawrence’s emergence, Higgins is one of the biggest, brightest stars in the nation.

Speaking of Lawrence, that’s a kid who grew up a Vols fan whose parents were from Johnson City. Tennessee also was in the early mix if not the leaders for Georgia freshman star Justin Fields and Florida freshman Emory Jones. They got none of those guys.

Even though there’s a long way to go until Bailey signs on the dotted line, he’s a massive pledge for the Pruitt era at this point.

There’s still a lot of work to be done by Pruitt and the gang in this year’s class, as players like Owen Pappoe, Khafre Brown, Eric Gray, Darnell Wright and other blue-chip big names are still viable options to pull the trigger for the Vols, but with Bailey and 4-star defensive end Jordan Davis, who UT flipped from Alabama, the ’20 class is off to a bang.

All the recruiting analysts raved today about Bailey’s potential. His upside is as high as anybody’s in this class or next. Perhaps it’s just as good news that Max Johnson [son of former NFL quarterback Brad Johnson and nephew of Mark Richt] didn’t go to Georgia and committed to LSU instead the day before Bailey. The Vols need not only to close the gap in the recruiting battle but to land some difference-makers.

Bailey will be arriving at a time when reinforcements should be in place for an awful offensive line, and the playmakers he could bring with him could mean big things for the Vols and whoever takes over for Helton as the offensive coordinator.

With Pruitt’s defensive acumen, you have to feel good about that side of the ball once he gets his recruits in there. Now, the offense feels like it’s turning a corner with Bailey in the fold.

So, even though Bailey’s arrival is months and months away, we’re fresh off watching an offense that couldn’t consistently move the football and a quarterback that — while improved — struggled reading blitzes and consistently hitting receivers in the intermediate passing routes, getting a commitment from a quarterback who is a polished prospect at this early juncture is huge.

Bailey’s decision to believe in Pruitt gives us more hope that things can turn around. The Vols have an elite recruiter in the head coaching position, and it feels like momentum is about to be on Tennessee’s side on the trail. They just need to find a way to parlay that good fortune into recruiting into some wins. This is, after all, the time of year when we start looking to the future because the present is one we’d like to move beyond.

It’s the curse of being a Tennessee fan, but the blessing is we still attract elite players, and you can’t be a great team without a great quarterback. The Vols got one of those on Thursday with the potential to grow and develop into a dynamic SEC throwing threat.