Category Archives: Football

The Jeremy Pruitt Era at Tennessee got off to an inauspicious start when West Virginia nose tackle Kenny Bigelow blew up the Vols’ first play from scrimmage, running through UT’s offensive line unblocked and crushing quarterback Jarret Guarantano as he threw an ugly incompletion. When the offense continued to go backward, so much of the blooming hope that had been carefully cultivated on Rocky Top over the past nine months withered and wilted.

And for a while, Heisman Trophy candidate Will Grier and West Virginia’s passing attack looked like it was going to squelch any hopes for the defense as well.

But after a few extremely rough series, Tennessee’s offense shifted out of reverse and even put together a nice 78-yard drive for a touchdown in the second quarter. Meanwhile, the Vols defense held the Mountaineers’ high-powered and dangerous offense to only one touchdown and two field goals in the first half.

After an extended halftime break caused by a lightning delay, West Virginia and Grier found a groove, scoring more points and piling up more yards in the third quarter than they did in the entire first half. They found the end zone on every possession after halftime with the exception of one drive that ended with a fumble recovered by Tennessee.

The Vols offense sputtered some and scored some in the second half, earning another touchdown and getting to within two yards of another before turning the ball over on downs. When it was all said and done, West Virginia won 40-14.

Stiff arming adversity

The opening of the game for Tennessee was horrid, as the first play felt like getting punched in the mouth while opening a much-anticipated Christmas present. And then getting stomped on the throat while being reminded who somebody else thinks you are.

But Tennessee’s guys took the licks, got up, and then started giving some of their own. Tyson Helton didn’t wait long to abandon the idea of running into a stacked box and immediately started having success throwing the ball and moving the chains. The players didn’t quit, and they didn’t hang their heads. That’s going to be important as they face the potential of additional beatings in October.

The offensive line recovered from a terrible start

For the frightening first few minutes, Tennessee’s offensive line somehow looked worse than ever. Alabama transfer and former 4-star prospect Brandon Kennedy completely whiffed on that first play and was getting manhandled by Bigelow. The rest of the guys were doing no better, getting pushed back, run around, and just generally overwhelmed by West Virginia’s front seven.

But they found their legs after a few series and started, at the very least, holding their own. And then they started opening up lanes for the running backs. (More on that in a minute.) On balance, I think you’d have to say that the jury is still out on the o-line, but as the game went on, you started feeling better about them.

Jarrett Guarantano

Guarantano got the start, and, once the o-line started helping him after the first few series, he looked good. He finished the game 19-25 for 172 yards and a touchdown. I said this already, but it really can’t be overstated: He was absolutely pummeled on that first play, and he could have succumbed to the here-we-go-agains like the rest of us did. But he not only put his helmet back on and got back in the pocket, he started having success.

Tim Jordan

Jordan has to be the player of the game for the Vols. After Ty Chandler went out with an injury, Jordan got the bulk of the work in the run game, and he finished with 20 carries for 118 yards and a touchdown. The guy ran hard, had solid vision, and simply would not go down on first contact. On a couple of runs, he punished would-be tacklers before hitting the turf. He’s going to be fun to watch.

Grier and his guys were just too much

We knew going in that Tennessee’s secondary was going to be challenged, and while there was hope that the new guys at corner would surprise, they really didn’t. Alontae Taylor must have had a decent game, as his name wasn’t called very much. But Grier and the West Virginia offense picked on Trevon Flowers all night and for good reason, as he simply got beat by the Mountaineers’ wide receivers multiple times.

Whether that means the Vols’ secondary is going to be a concern all season, that Grier is going to win the Heisman, or that what happened this afternoon when Tennessee tried to defend the pass was a combination of the two, we won’t know for several games. Stay tuned for additional evidence and keep deliberating.

Marquez Callaway

Callaway had a good afternoon, pulling down seven catches for 85 yards, and he appeared to be Guarantano’s go-to receiver.

It was also good to see Jajuan Jennings back in action. When he gets his hands on the ball, you think that he’s never going to let go or go down. He did have only two catches, though.

Injuries

I believe that running back Ty Chandler was the only Vol to leave the game with injury and not return. Trey Smith went out at one point, but got back on the field after getting his ankle re-taped. That’s good news for a team that’s had more than its share of bad luck in the injury department the past couple of years.

Going forward

This wasn’t exactly the result that we Vols fans were hoping for. Many were entertaining the idea of winning, and most were thinking it would be closer than the 10 points Vegas predicted.

Whether 26 points constitutes a blowout is up for debate, but I saw some things this afternoon that look like a solid foundation upon which success can be built. Responding well to adversity. Abandoning ineffective gameplans and making effective in-game adjustments quickly. Mostly solid fundamentals.

I’m also sitting here right now trying to remember any mistakes, and I can’t remember any. The guys got beat. They missed some tackles, some blocks, and some coverages. But did the coaches commit any serious blunders? I don’t think so.

I think Will Grier, David Sills, and Gary Jennings are excellent.

I think West Virginia is very good.

But I also think we’re in good hands with Jeremy Pruitt and his staff.

It’s finally here. Gameday. Football Time in Tennessee.

Here’s the perfect Gameday Gameplan for Vols fans. Where and when to find the Vols game on TV, what other games to watch, and what to listen to and read as you wait for kickoff.

When is the Vols game, and what TV channel is it on?

The most important thing you’ll do today is watch the Vols game, so here are the particulars:

• Kickoff: 3:30
• TV: CBS
• Official video streaming: CBS
• Official audio streaming: Vol Network
• Live stats

The best other games for Vols fans to watch today

Here’s our list of games to watch today, curated just for Vols fans:

See also, this week’s full college football TV schedule.

GRT games and contests

While you’re waiting for the games to begin, make sure that you submit your answers to the GRT Guessing Game questions and update your picks for the GRT Pick ‘Em.

GRT game-week podcasts

And if you’re driving around this morning to get stuff done before kickoff, have a listen to our two podcasts this week by subscribing via iTunes or Google:

Pre-game prep

And to catch up on on your pre-game reading, have a look at our game preview posts from earlier this week:

1. Tennessee vs West Virginia Preview: How Many, How Much, A Few
2. Tennessee-West Virginia statsy preview prediction: Mountaineers by 5
3. Saturday’s West Virginia Showdown is a Major Opportunity for Jeremy Pruitt and the Vols
4. Locks & Keys Week 1: Do You Fear the ‘Eers?
5. Vols-Mountaineers: Comparing the starters, head-to-head
6. Every Season Tells a Story
7. The data on how Vols fans are feeling about the 2018 season

This will also serve as our game thread for the day. Hope to see you there.

Go Vols!

It’s been a long time; too long.

The longest offseason in the history of Tennessee football is over. We endured the worst season in UT football history, the firing of clown coach Butch Jones, a debacle of a coaching search that saw us triumph as a fan base and ultimately claim major victory with the ouster of athletic director John Currie, the hiring of legend Phillip Fulmer at the position and the ultimate settling on Alabama defensive coordinator Jeremy Pruitt as head coach.

Pruitt has won us over early with his down-to-earth demeanor and his no-nonsense approach; not to mention some recruiting victories. But we’ve got to take a baby step to take a big one, and the only way to do that is on the field.

Football is back. And for the first time in a long while, we can feel at least moderately comfortable that we’ve got a football guy who knows how to coach football who’ll be leading out the Vols against West Virginia tomorrow.

How will our Vols look? That, we don’t know. So, it’s impossible to figure how the game is going to go. But that won’t stop us from giving you a prediction now, will it? NEVAH!

Welcome to another season of Locks & Keys, where we give you five keys for the Vols to win the football game of the week and also give you some locks [that are normally far from that] for you to play if gambling were something that was allowed in your state. But since it isn’t in Tennessee, we’d never really do that now, would we?

This year, we’re going to do things a little differently. We’re gonna have a little structure to this shindig. We’ll give you five keys and seven locks for each of these columns. I’d love for you to add your own picks in the comments [or on Twitter]. I’ll also give you a score prediction each week because, you know, it’s what I do.

Let’s hope the Vols show out tomorrow. Let’s tell you how they can.

KEYS

Get in Grier’s grill
It’s no secret what West Virginia wants to do. Head coach Dana Holgorsen’s M-O throughout his career as an offensive coordinator and head coach has been to advance the ball vertically through the air. Now, he may just have the best weapon he’s ever had under center in senior quarterback Will Grier.

The Vols know all about Grier, who shredded UT and gouged us in the heart for good measure the last time we saw him at the helm of the Florida Gators when he completed a 4th-and-forever fourth-quarter pass to beat Tennessee in 2015. He has so many weapons and UT has so much youth in the secondary that if the Vols can’t find a way to get pressure on him, it’s going to be a long afternoon.

That’s a tall order for the team that was next-to-last in the SEC with just 22 sacks and 61 tackles for a loss a season ago. There are no “new” weapons for the Vols on the edge, really, unless JUCO transfer Jordan Allen can find his way in the backfield. Instead, UT is mostly relying on scheme changes and the fact that they now have defensive coaching. Can defensive-minded head coach Jeremy Pruitt, coordinator Kevin Sherrer and renowned assistants Chris Rumph and Tracy Rocker manufacture ways for the front seven to get to the quarterback? If not, Grier will have a field day.

Much of camp talk focused on the resurrection of the careers of Jonathan Kongbo, Darrell Taylor, and Kyle Phillips as well as the emergence of players like Quart’e Sapp and even JUCO defensive lineman Emmit Gooden. The Vols must manufacture ways to get to the quarterback.

Grab some game-changers

Last year’s Tennessee defense was atrocious. And before you point to the “strong” pass defense numbers remember that nobody threw the ball against the Vols because they could run it so effectively. When teams needed to pass to win (see Mizzou and Vanderbilt) they did with ease.

That – like the quarterback pressure – must change Saturday.

A season ago, UT was 10th in the SEC in turnover margin, last in the league with a paltry five interceptions and 11th in total takeaways. Again, the Vols are hanging their hats on actual – GASP! – defensive coaching to turn that around. Anybody would be an upgrade over former coordinator Bob Shoop, especially with the handcuffs he seemed to have under the Butch Jones regime.

But, unlike the pass rush, the Vols actually have some new weapons in the secondary. It looks like talented true freshman Alontae Taylor earned a starting spot opposite junior Baylen Buchanan, who hopes to have a career resurgence after a year wandering in ineptitude and obscurity. But other freshmen like Bryce Thompson and Trevon Flowers will play a lot, and their athleticism should upgrade the talent level on the back level.

Throw in a seasoned Nigel Warrior, and the Vols have the chance to be much better, or at least a ton more athletic, in the defensive backfield. They need to do a better job defending the ball, getting their hands on passes and generating turnovers that can flip the field in a hurry. This feels like a game where they’ll be a lot of points scored, so the Vols need extra possessions to win it.

Jump the ‘Eers

The Mountaineers are nearly a double-digit favorite against the Vols, and they can score so quickly that you normally don’t feel like a deficit is a big deal. But this team was just 7-6 a season ago, and their defense (at least on paper) isn’t that good. So, if UT can get a couple of those defensive stops early that we’ve already discussed and put up a couple of quick scores, it may be a big deal.

The reasoning isn’t because Grier will struggle to bring them back. Instead, if the Vols get off to a hot scoring start, they’ll begin to believe. That’s the quickest way to put a forgettable 4-8 2017 behind them. Every single pundit predicting a West Virginia blowout win is looking at the team from a year ago.

This isn’t that team.

The Vols may not be world-beaters yet, but there is a feeling around the complex that this team has improved a lot, and there is a belief that they’re being slept on a bit. OK, go prove it. I’ve said it once this week, but WVU isn’t a powerhouse. This is a good team that has so many offensive weapons that the Vols must play a very good game to win.

So, go play a very good game. Right?

The time for excuses is over. You’ve not heard any from Pruitt, and you won’t hear any from the Vols. They’ve got to go out there with a blank slate and play with their eyes forward. If they do that, they’ll be fine.

Good Guarantano

When we’re talking about fresh starts, nobody needs one more than Tennessee’s (expected) starting quarterback. The rising redshirt sophomore struggled in his first action a season ago after coming off the bench for maligned Quinten Dormady, who is now a backup at Houston.

But Guarantano, once upon a time, was the nation’s top-ranked dual-threat quarterback, expected to be the program savior and heir to Joshua Dobbs behind center. He was going to be the signal-caller who took UT from the mid-tier level Jones got them to to an upper-echelon program.
That got lost in the shambles of ’17.

Now, we’re hoping the New Jersey native can break out of the shell that he was last season and re-realize his massive potential. This strong-armed kid can make all the passes and elude pressure with his feet. But he’s also prone to hang onto the ball for too long, take unnecessary sacks and struggle with his timing. That’s why he’s not seized the job from graduate transfer quarterback transfer Keller Chryst and run with it.

This is likely going to be Guarantano’s job, and the Vols need for him to be better than serviceable. Serviceable won’t cut it with the players UT has around him. He needs to be steady in this game and develop until the Florida game. If he gets on a roll early, he may recapture some of that swagger he had when Bleacher Report did a Times Square commitment video for him back during his senior season of high school.

Friend-led Front

One of the most refreshing stories of fall camp has been just how many good reports about the offensive line there has been since Will Friend took over the unit. That position was a nightmare a season ago, along with most everything else. But when you look at how the new staff gave that group a facelift, it’s really remarkable.

The best thing for the Vols is star sophomore Trey Smith – who missed the entire spring dealing with blood clots – is healthy and looks like the leader of the unit now that he’s practicing at left tackle. JUCO transfer Jahmir Johnson earned one of the guard spots, and Alabama center transfer Brandon Kennedy will start in the middle for UT. Right now, it looks like Ryan Johnson and Drew Richmond will be at the other two O-line spots, but there are also reinforcements.

True freshman Jerome Carvin looks like an emerging force at guard, and redshirt freshman K’Rojhn Calbert is perhaps the most athletic player in the group. Riley Locklear is steady and should play, and Marcus Tatum is also not out of the mix at one of the tackle spots. If Chance Hall can come back from his major knee problems (and he’s expected to help this year) the Vols not only have more depth but talent.

But how good will that unit be at the start of the season? They must be very good if the Vols are going to beat the Mountaineers. To win this game, UT needs to run the football effectively, control clock, sustain drives and punch the ball in the end zone. Grier can’t hurt you watching from the sidelines.

So, if the Vols can control the game with their will imposed up front. This is going to be a different game and one UT can win.

Final Prediction

I’m a chicken.

I’ve gone back and forth all week on this one, and while I want to allow myself to believe the Vols will win, I’ve been burned too much lately. Call it Battered Butch Syndrome.

I believe the Vols absolutely CAN win this game. I know it’s a huge opportunity for this program under the early regime of Pruitt, and I’ve written as much this week. I also as of now believe this team is going to beat the Gators. But I just think an experienced quarterback and an incredible stable of receivers is going to be too much for a Vols team that struggled to get any pressure or create turnovers a season ago.

I know, I know: I’m looking at last year’s team, too. But how much better will they be? We just don’t know anything at all. That could be an advantage for Pruitt, but it’s a disadvantage in picking games. If UT can control the clock and Guarantano can limit mistakes, the Vols can post points.

But they’ll fall just short. UT will cover, but will start the season 0-1.

Prediction:  West Virginia 31, Tennessee 27

Now, onto the locks. We’ll close quickly…take these to the BANK! Or, you know, don’t.

LOCKS

1.  Ole Miss +2.5 over Texas Tech:  There could be a whooooooole lotta points scored in this game, but Texas Tech has proved it can’t hang with more talented teams. The Rebels have a ton of talent, led by quarterback Jordan Ta’amu and the best receiving corps in the SEC featuring A.J. Brown. I like the Dixie Rebels to get a big win in Houston to open the season. Take the dogs.
2. South Carolina -29.5 over Coastal Carolina:  I normally am a sucker for lines that look too good to be true, and they burn me. This is one of those. The Gamecocks play the Sun Belt’s Chanticleers in the opener, and this was a 3-9 team a year ago. It’s not really USCe’s thing to blow teams out, but Will Muschamp’s team has Jake Bentley and a few receiving weapons who’ll be too much. This will be something like a 45-14 win.
3. Auburn -2.5 over Washington: I got no words for this line. Again, I just don’t believe the Huskies can come across the country and play what will virtually be a home game for a stout Tigers team and win. Washington’s best win a year ago was Utah. Auburn is too big and strong on defense and will win a slugfest. I like them to get by by at least a touchdown.
4. Kentucky – Central Michigan under 49: These two teams have decent defenses, but the biggest factor here is both have new quarterbacks. The Wildcats have JUCO transfer Terry Wilson, and CMU will go with Tony Poljan, who played some at receiver a year ago and only has 21 career passes for the Chippewas. That’s a perfect concoction for a snorefest. Kentucky will win something like 27-10.
5. Michigan PICK over Notre Dame: Not buying the Fighting Irish. Even though they’re at home, the Wolverines are a dark-horse national championship contender if Ole Miss transfer quarterback Shea Patterson can live up to his potential. I think he can.
6. Alabama -24.5 over Louisville: Last year, the Cardinals couldn’t stop anybody, and Lamar Jackson made a few of those games at least respectable. There’s no Jackson anymore, and this has the potential to be the best offense of the Saban era in Tuscaloosa. Tide rolls.
7. Arizona -11.5 over BYU: This is my favorite line of the week. I can’t wait to see what Kevin Sumlin does with Khalil Tate. The Cougars don’t have an answer for a weapon like him. Cats cruise.

Give us your picks!

Let’s go.

How many points will Tennessee have to score to win? In six years at West Virginia, Dana Holgorsen is 53-37. In those 37 losses, the Mountaineers still averaged 24.9 points per game. By comparison, Tennessee went 34-29 the last five years with Butch Jones at the helm. In those 29 losses the Vols averaged only 17.4 points.

You’re not beating West Virginia 14-10. Even a relatively strong performance from Jeremy Pruitt’s defense right out of the gate will probably still require Tennessee’s offense to score more points than it mustered in most of its games last season. After a strong opening against Georgia Tech and Indiana State, the Vols scored more than 24 points just once the rest of 2017 (26 at Kentucky).

Tennessee will need to do something well, then do it consistently on offense to outscore West Virginia. The most likely answer there, as you’d imagine with this match-up, is via the ground game.

How much can Tennessee rely on its ground game? Last year West Virginia was 1-4 when allowing 200+ yards on the ground. The Mountaineers were 99th nationally in yards per carry allowed last season, and were especially susceptible on first down: 5.18 yards per carry allowed, and 48 runs of 10+ yards surrendered (127th nationally). Big plays were readily available on the ground when the defense didn’t know what to expect. Last season West Virginia ranked 100th or worse in 10+ yard runs allowed, 20+ yard runs allowed, etc. all the way through 50+ yard runs allowed.

It’s incredibly important for Tennessee to stay on schedule in this game, not only to protect the quarterback, but to put West Virginia’s defense in positions it struggled to stop last year. This feeds directly into the Vols showing improvement in the things they were very worst at last season: creating big plays (123rd nationally in 20+ yard gains), but also tackles for loss allowed (121st) which leads to a poor third down conversion rate (120th). The Vols must go backward far less to create more 3rd-and-3’s and fewer 3rd-and-7’s. And they have to capitalize in the ground game with both consistency and explosiveness against West Virginia.

A few incompletions can make a huge difference. On the other side of the ball, I think the most telling stat on West Virginia is this: the Mountaineers were 0-6 when completing less than 60% of their passes last year, 7-0 when completing more. Some of the sub-60% numbers include Will Grier’s absence, who was 6-of-8 when he went down against Texas. But in the three losses when he played the whole game:

• Virginia Tech: 31-of-53 (58.5%)
• TCU: 25-of-45 (55.6%)
• Oklahoma State: 20-of-42 (47.6%)

With the possible exception of Oklahoma State, Grier wasn’t bad by any means in these games. He averaged 7-8 yards per attempt against good defenses from Virginia Tech and TCU, with three touchdowns and only one pick in both games. Both teams only sacked him twice; Oklahoma State just once. But all three did enough to disrupt the passing game to win; VT and TCU won by identical 31-24 scores, while Oklahoma State won the 50-39 shootout they’re built for. The Vols under Pruitt are far more likely to follow the Hokie/Horned Frog model.

The path to victory won’t be easy, and there’s so much we simply don’t know about this Tennessee team. But there is indeed a path: find repeated success on the ground and make Grier just uncomfortable enough. Don’t expect to beat West Virginia 14-10, and I’m not sure the Vols are built to beat them 50-39. But opportunity, as they say, is now here. And I’m very excited to see what we’ve got.

Go Vols.

On Monday, we unveiled the 2018 edition of the GRT Expected Win Total Machine. How are Vols fans in general feeling about the season? Here’s the data so far:

• We Vols fans as a group are expecting right around 6.65 wins this season, more than a full game above where Vegas put the line.
• We’re giving Tennessee a 42% chance to beat West Virginia.
• We’re feeling most confident about ETSU and Charlotte, putting both at 98%. UTEP is at 96%.
• We’re feeling least confident about Alabama (9%), then Georgia (15%), then Auburn (21%). We then have West Virginia at 42% and South Carolina at 45%.
• After that, though, we have either toss-ups or expected wins. Florida is right at 50%, Missouri is 55%, and Kentucky and Vanderbilt are 67% and 69%, respectively.
• The entries range from an expected 4.69 wins to an expected 10.35 wins.

It will be interesting to see how the outcome of tomorrow’s game against West Virginia impacts these numbers next week. Where do you fall with respect to the crowd? Are you with the herd, or are you an outlier?

Game previews for the first game of the season are always tricky. New teams, new players, new records, new hope. No matter the preview or the author, all pre-season game previews are some combination of reliance on what happened the prior season, what’s changed since then, and filling the gaps with educated guesses. Often, folks will engage in a little creative ambiguity about what part and how much of their opinion is based on each of those components.

I’m going to do essentially the same thing here in previewing Tennessee’s season-opener against West Virginia, but I’m going to try to be as transparent as air. I’ll look at last year’s numbers for each team without apology, and then consider the most important things that are new and different about each team this season before launching into some guesswork about how things might shake out Saturday at 3:30.

So let’s get to it. First, the predictions, and below them, the details:

Predictions

Tennessee rushing yards: 120

West Virginia rushing yards: 160

Tennessee passing yards: 200

West Virginia passing yards: 340

Tennessee points: 28

West Virginia points: 33

Tennessee rushing

The Vols averaged 117.4 rushing yards per game last year, while West Virginia’s run defense gave up 204.2 yards per game. That makes West Virginia worse at defending the run than any team Tennessee played last year. Good news for the good guys.

Vanderbilt was the next-worst at run defense, allowing 198.5 yards per game, but still held the Vols to only 55 on the ground. So, never mind that previous bit of good news. 🙂

Tennessee’s 117.4-yard average was nearly identical to Baylor’s (117.3), and they got 127 against the Mountaineers last season. Texas, which averaged 139.6 rushing yards per game racked up 233 yards. So maybe kinda sorta a bit of good news for the Vols.

On balance, it would seem that, not accounting yet for offseason changes to the team, the Vols’ expected rush yards would be somewhere around 120-130.

West Virginia rushing

The Tennessee defense allowed 251.3 rushing yards per game last season, while the West Virginia run game averaged 150.3 yards per game. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent was Massachusetts, which averaged 135.3 yards per game on the ground, and they got 144 against Tennessee. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent was Florida, which averaged 156.4 rushing yards per game and got 168 against Tennessee. With all of that, and again not counting for any offseason changes yet, that sounds to me like West Virginia’s expected rushing yards should be somewhere around 160.

Tennessee passing

Tennessee averaged 173.7 passing yards per game in 2017, and West Virginia allowed 241.4. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent was Kentucky, which gave up 251.6 yards per game through the air, and Tennessee put up 242 against them. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent was Indiana State. They allowed 235 passing yards per game, and Tennessee got . . . 235 against them.

That would suggest Tennessee should expect to get about as much as the opponent regularly gives in the passing game, which would make it somewhere around 240. That’s pretty far from the Vols’ average last year, though, so I’d back it off to maybe 200.

West Virginia passing

Here’s where it really starts getting interesting. Tennessee’s pass defense numbers weren’t bad last year, but conventional wisdom suggests that because the Vols couldn’t stop the run, its pass defense was never really challenged. Additionally, the Mountaineers’ numbers are based on three games without Will Grier. So, we’ll keep all of that in mind and adjust for it after we look at last year’s numbers.

The Tennessee pass defense allowed 161.7 passing yards per game last year. West Virginia got 309.3, which makes them better in the passing game than any team the Vols faced last season. They were only slightly better than Missouri, though, which averaged 308.6 yards per game through the air and yet only put up 226 against Tennessee.

Looking at it from the Mountaineers’ perspective, the closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior West Virginia opponent was Virginia Tech, which gave up 199.8 yards per game through the air in 2017, and West Virginia rolled up 371 against them.

Not counting yet for offseason changes (this is the last time I’m going to say that), but accounting for Tennessee’s lack of run defense, all of that would seem to suggest that West Virginia’s expected passing yards this weekend should be somewhere around 340.

Tennessee scoring

Tennessee averaged 19.8 points per game last season, and West Virginia allowed 31.5 against high-powered Big 12 offenses. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent was Massachusetts, which is allowing 31.8 points per game, but Tennessee only managed 17 against them. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent was Vanderbilt. They gave up 31.3 points per game, and Tennessee only got 24 against them. That would make it look like you should expect no more than 20 points for the Vols against West Virginia.

But West Virginia’s opponents most like Tennessee last year generally scored more than their average when the played the Mountaineers. Kansas, which averaged 18.7 points, got 34 against West Virginia, and Baylor, which averaged 24.3 points, got 36 against the Mountaineers.

With that additional piece of information, I’d say it’s not unreasonable to expect the Vols to get somewhere around 28 points.

West Virginia scoring

Tennessee allowed an average of 29.1 points per game last season, and West Virginia averaged 34.5. Massachusetts, which averaged 30.6 points, managed only 13 against Tennessee, but Georgia, which averaged 35.4 points, got 41 against the Vols.

West Virginia also generally outscored their opponents’ averages. Oklahoma State, which allowed an average of 29.4 points per game, gave up 39 to the Mountaineers, and Oklahoma, which allowed an average of 27.1 points per game, gave up 31 when they played West Virginia.

With that, I’d say West Virginia’s expected points should be somewhere around 31-35

Offseason changes

Those are last year’s numbers, and these are new teams this fall. For West Virginia, quarterback Will Grier is back into the lineup after missing the last three games of the season, all losses. So, he’s important to his team’s success. Not only is Grier back, but most of his go-to guys return as well. He lost one receiver (Ka’Raun White), but has David Sills, Gary Jennings, and Marcus Simms, and the Mountaineers lost running back Justin Crawford (1,061 yards) but returns Kennedy McCoy (611 yards).

As for the Vols, who knows at this point? An entirely new coaching staff has entirely rearranged the furniture and is in the process of remodeling and remolding the entire roster. The assumption is that the prior regime’s primary failure was in developing the talent it had recruited onto the roster and that the new guys are the remedy for that.

In addition, Tennessee knows exactly what to expect from West Virginia, but the Mountaineers know next to nothing about the revamped Vols team. If they assume their own strength is also Tennessee’s weakness due to the youth and inexperience at cornerback for Tennessee, and if those corners turn out to be better than expected, it could be costly to the Mountaineers in both time and opportunity in an important game.

So, the 2018 version of West Virginia is probably better than its numbers from last year suggest. The 2018 version of the Vols could be anything, really. They could be much better, the same, or even worse as they transition to a new scheme. But I think that the safest assumption is that the recruiting rankings weren’t wrong, that the improved health of the team overall will matter, and that the new staff can develop their guys into their potential.

On balance then, I don’t think that there’s much reason to adjust this year’s expectations of the game very far from what last year’s numbers suggest.

Comparison of predictions to other models and Vegas

My method makes West Virginia a five-point favorite. The current line is 9.5-10. ESPN’s FPI gives Tennessee a 40.9% chance of winning.

Thursday

The real college football season kicks off tomorrow night with a couple of Top 25 teams in action. Do you really need any other reason to watch?

Friday

On Friday night, watch the guy who won the job over Vols QB Keller Chryst. I’m also interested in seeing how Wisconsin looks.

Gameday

The noon slate on Gameday features a future Vols opponent and several Top 25 teams to whet your appetite for the main attraction at 3:30 when Tennessee takes on West Virginia. It’s probably also worth DVRing those Auburn and Georgia games to see how they look. Auburn vs. Washington, in particular, could be fun. After the Vols, of course.

Assuming we’re still in the football mood, Michigan and Notre Dame in the evening slot should be entertaining.

Sunday

Monday

Sunday and Monday both feature Top 25 matchups, capping off a nice, long gorgefest for the first real weekend of college football.

Full sortable and searchable college football TV schedule

When Jeremy Pruitt opens his mouth, he not only sounds like us; he also says what we want to hear. None of the words are sugarcoated, but they’re honest, laced with the guarded optimism and measured hope of a coach who believes he’s done everything he can to prepare his team to play.

Now, they’ve just got to go out and do it.

We don’t know what to expect from the Vols on Saturday, and none of us know whether that means there’s a quiet confidence around the program or whether Pruitt simply isn’t the type of guy to dish out a lot of excuses.

Either one would be a refreshing change from the previous regime. You never could trust what Butch Jones said, as there was either manufactured-but-tired attempts at swagger or padded statistics and buttered-up “facts” that were really just attempts to lessen the blame for losses before they happened.

How many times — and for how many years in a row — can we be forced to hear about having the “youngest team in …”?

Thankfully, those days are over, and we can all pull for Pruitt if for no other reason than he’s the anti-Jones. But the true definition of whether he’ll be beloved or bemoaned is what his team does on the field, the positions his players are in to make plays, the development of those guys, the game plan and execution of it and, ultimately, wins and losses.

Saturday is an opportunity. Of course, every game is. But Saturday is a chance for Pruitt to get a signature win in his first-ever game as a head coach. It’s not like the Vols are playing a powerhouse program that looks like, on paper, it will boat-race them. This Mountaineers team’s best win a year ago was against an up-and-down Iowa State.

They lost to Virginia Tech (31-24), TCU (31-24), Oklahoma State (50-39), Texas (28-14), Oklahoma (59-31) and Utah (30-14). The last three losses came with star quarterback Will Grier out after he injured his throwing hand against the Longhorns. But the first three losses (and part of that Texas setback) came with him at the helm.

This isn’t a juggernaut.

The wins came over East Carolina (56-20), Delaware State (59-16), Kansas (56-34), Texas Tech (46-35), Baylor (38-36), Iowa State (20-16) and Kansas State (28-23). Woof.

We know what the ‘Eers will bring to the table with a stable of able receivers, led by senior David Sills V and quarterback Grier, who last crushed out souls in the Gators’ comeback win in 2015 that was capped by his 4th-and-14 completion for a touchdown. We know he’s good, but we know what’s coming.

West Virginia doesn’t. And coach Dana Holgorsen has been conjuring up whiny excuses all week from lamenting that Tennessee has had more practice time than the ‘Eers to making petty comments about all the “or’s” on Pruitt’s depth chart. It sounds familiar, almost like the Butch Jones School of Manufacturing Reasons Why I May Lose. I’m not suggesting WVU is going to lose this game, but I also don’t think the Mountaineers have any idea what team is going to trot out in orange and white Saturday.

Listen: Maybe the Vols are going to be putrid. After all, we’re coming off the worst season in school history where Jones’ team lost eight games for the first time in the storied history of the program. Even during the dark days of the past decade and the many losing seasons the Vols have suffered in recent years, nothing was worse than 2017. The entire team quit, nothing looked right and by the end of the year, UT wasn’t even competitive with Missouri and Vanderbilt.

It’s very easy to get lulled into the thought that Pruitt isn’t a miracle worker, and it’s still going to be bad.

He may not be a miracle worker, but he is a worker. The Vols have taken on a workman’s mentality, and the team responded. It’s interesting, to say the least, that Pruitt back in the spring poor-mouthed his team, talked about how poorly they were practicing and rarely mentioned anything positive about individuals or the team as a whole. The tone shifted since then. Either the public relations team got a hold of him and informed him that wasn’t a way to sell tickets, or things got better.

Pruitt doesn’t seem like the type of coach who dashes fairy dust and frolics while tossing around roses and preaching of rainbows and unicorns. That’s not what he learned growing up and playing ball in Rainsville, Alabama, that’s not the atmosphere he was around Boots Donnely at MTSU or Gene Stallings in his playing days at Alabama, and that’s not what he’s shown throughout his days coaching for high school legends like Rush Propst and college legends like Nick Saban and Mark Richt.

It seems like he thinks he’s got something, and even though it may not be a championship-caliber team, it could be one that has listened, responded and improved. Sometimes, a team needs a jolt of belief and a change of scenery, and that’s exactly what happened in Knoxville. Rather than the mass exodus of players many predicted from the cushy world of Jones to the structured tenure of Pruitt, there have been just a handful of guys leave from last year.

Most stayed, and several of those guys left for dead are primed and poised to make a difference Saturday. The resurrection of Jonathan Kongbo’s career must be fully realized with an impact in a game, but he’s shown flashes. Kyle Phillips and Shy Tuttle have looked better, and Baylen Buchanan is a no-doubt starter against the ‘Eers. Drew Richmond won a job this summer, and other players who failed to live up to expectations are emerging, too.

Can everything come together? It has to now if it’s going to. It’s time right now. Unfortunately for the Vols, they don’t get a warm-up game. One of the two biggest swing games for the entire season happens this weekend, and the other one (Florida) comes September 23. Win those two games, and it’s the difference between a possible 4-4 start with a chance to run the table and a 2-6 flop where everything must go right with questions swirling around the disappointment.

The margin for error is slim. But that’s the state of the program, the fear of the fan base and the truth of the schedule.

An awful season this year is not necessarily a red flag, and neither is a clunker of a game on Saturday. Many pundits are predicting both of those things, anyway.

But this weekend’s season opener is a chance to prove all those things wrong. This isn’t Oregon or Oklahoma, a national championship contender without weaknesses. This is a team with a very suspect defense that is relying on graduate transfers up front and a running game with an unproven (but talented) starter in Kennedy McCoy. The passing game is dynamic and among the best in the nation, and the Vols have concerns rushing the passer and in the secondary, but the latter is Pruitt’s speciality, and they have some talented young guys on the back level.

There are plenty more question marks for the Vols, but it isn’t like the Mountaineers don’t have their share, too.

Nobody knows how this matchup is going to shake out. It feels a little bit like the 2006 season-opening win over ninth-ranked California or bowl games against Northwestern and Iowa where there is such a contrast of styles that few know how it’ll actually materialize between the lines. On paper, West Virginia looks like the winner, but that’s against a disappointing UT from 2017 that may or may not show up.

The Mountaineers are 17th nationally coming off a 7-6 season from a year ago. As we’ve mentioned, that record is tainted by Grier’s injury, but they also weren’t the ’85 Bears before he got hurt, either.

The Vols fired their entire coaching staff, and more than 30 new players have suited up for them since a spring session that saw Pruitt get — and stay — salty.

It may seem like a long shot for Tennessee to win this game, but the unknowns surrounding this team feel a little like they’re being underrated nationally. Is that wishful thinking? Sure, maybe. But it’s also a major opportunity for Pruitt’s rebuild to get a massive early jolt.

There’s been a lot of talk this offseason about the current level of talent on Tennessee’s roster. Much of the reason for the discussion is borne out of the discrepancy between the recruiting rankings — Tennessee’s as a team and many of the Vols players’ individual rankings — and the actual performance on the field the past several years. The reason for the renewed interest is rooted in the hope and/or belief that the rankings weren’t as wrong as they seemed to be and that Jeremy Pruitt and his staff can finally teach the players what they need to know and coach them into their full potential on the field.

This argument has a strong gravitational pull because so many of Tennessee’s key players sported excellent rankings when they arrived on campus. If those numbers had a reasonable degree of accuracy, and if Pruitt can coach them to their potential, they should be able to hold their own against most opponents.

With Tennessee’s first depth chart of 2018 released yesterday, here’s a look at the expected talent level (and experience level) of each of Tennesse’s starters compared to that of West Virginia’s. Where the depth chart punted on a starter and bracketed more than one player into a single starting spot, we made an educated guess.

Head-to-head Tennessee-West Virginia starter chart, with recruiting rankings and current experience

Notes and observations:

• Based only on recruiting rankings, Tennessee has some degree of advantage at every level on both offense and defense.
• The biggest difference when comparing recruiting rankings comes when you compare Tennessee’s defensive line to West Virginia’s offensive line. Shy Tuttle and Kyle Phillips came to Tennessee with tremendous potential, and the Mountaineers OL were all primarily 3-star recruits.
• The smallest advantage for Tennessee in potential talent is found at the second level when Tennessee’s on offense with 3-star Vols running back Tim Jordan going against an ‘Eers linebacking corps made up of fellow 3-stars.
• If you were expecting a disadvantage in incoming talent perceptions for the Vols’ secondary compared to West Virginia’s passing attack, you’re not alone. But there’s talent in Tennessee’s secondary, with safeties Nigel Warrior and Micah Abernathy and cornerback Alontae Taylor all coming to Tennessee with four stars. West Virginia quarterback Will Grier was a high 4-star coming out of high school, but his receiving corps is made up of 3-star guys.
• That final note, of course, drives home the point that things can change once guys get to campus. To date, most of Tennessee’s players have not lived up to their potential, and the Mountaineers’ passing game has become a 5-star threat all around. Grier is a Heisman-contender. Sills was a Biletnikoff Award finalist last year. Abernathy had to fight for his starting spot this fall, and Taylor is a true freshman. Performance always trumps promise, although as Vols fans, we’d rather have promise than not.

Here’s a quick look at all of the starters this weekend, sorted by 247 Composite score, an incoming ranking:

Notes and observations:

• Tennessee’s Trey Smith is not the guy who was most-highly rated coming out of high school. That would be Mountaineers nose tackle Kenney Bigelow, a high 5-star recruit who was the nation’s ninth-best player in the Class of 2013.
• Tennessee has 18 of the 21 top-ranked players; West Virginia only 3.

Again, we believe in recruiting rankings, as it has been proven time and time again that the best college football teams in the standings at the end of the season are the same ones at the top of the recruiting standings in February. But we also know that while recruiting well is necessary to winning, it is not sufficient. The incoming talent must be developed, and at this point, you would have to concede that the West Virginia coaching staff has done a better job with their guys than the prior regime at Tennessee did with theirs.

But it does appear that the new Vols staff has the right raw material to mold, and if they are good at development, then it is not unreasonable for Vols fans to believe that the road back to relevancy might not be as long as we fear. What we see on Satrday will be the first evidence of whether we’ll be able to continue to believe in that theory for long.