How you view the result of Saturday’s Tennessee-West Virginia game depends largely on how you felt going in. As I said on the two Gameday on Rocky Top Podcasts last week, my three most expected outcomes for the game were (1) West Virginia in a close one, (2) a West Virginia blowout, and (3) Tennessee in a close one.
I wouldn’t argue with anyone who feels like a 26-point loss is a blowout, but because I knew there was a significant risk of the Mountaineers passing game continuing to exploit the Vols secondary, it doesn’t really feel like that to me. Maybe I’d feel differently if it happened all game instead of just the second half. It’s like getting all of the Pythagorean theorem questions wrong on the ACT. It doesn’t necessarily mean you’re terrible at math; it just means you got the same concept wrong 15 times.
On the other hand, expecting a close game and getting a 26-point loss is indeed cause for adjusting expectations downward to some degree. So yeah, I’m feeling a little less hopeful for the Vols after this weekend. I’m really interested to see how West Virginia does the rest of the way. Go ‘Eers.
Meanwhile, every one of the Vols’ future opponents except UTEP had first outings that were solid enough to make me feel slightly worse about them as well. With the exception of Auburn, though, everybody played cupcakes, so if I feel worse, it’s not by much.
On balance, I feel only slightly worse about the Vols and only slightly worse about the Vols’ opponents after the first weekend. Plus, like Brad, I’m thinking that the only reason I’m feeling worse is because IÂ probably felt better than I should have last week. I’m keeping the Alabama-Auburn-Georgia trio where they are and in the order they were. I’m reordering the Charlotte, ETSU, UTEP trio and keeping the group in my “as certain as can be” range. But I’m moving the shifting the middle group of South Carolina, Florida, and Missouri toward the red a bit and keeping Kentucky, and Vanderbilt right in the toss-up range.
My projected win total is now 5.25. Use the GRT Expected Win Total Machine to gauge your own expectations after the first week:
The details of the games are below, but here’s my updated chart for this week:
Tennessee Volunteers currently
- Lost to #17 WVU*, 40-14
- ETSU, 4:00 PM ET
- UTEP, 12:00 PM ET
- Florida, TBD
- #3 Georgia, TBD
- #9 Auburn, TBD
- #1 Alabama, TBD
- S Carolina, TBD
- Charlotte, TBD
- Kentucky, TBD
- Missouri, TBD
- Vanderbilt, TBD
The Vols should be able to regain a bit of confidence over the next two weeks against ETSU and UTEP at home. Florida gets Kentucky and Colorado State the next two weeks, so expectations could shift in a hurry regarding that imminent clash between the Vols and Gators at Neyland.
The Vols’ past opponents
West Virginia Mountaineers
Current record: 1-0 (0-0), 1st in Big 12
- Beat Tennessee*, 40-14
- Youngstown St, 6:00 PM ET
- NC State, 3:30 PM ET
- Kansas State, TBD
- Texas Tech, TBD
- Kansas, TBD
- Iowa State, TBD
- Baylor, 7:00 PM ET FOX Sports 1
- #23 Texas, TBD
- #16 TCU, TBD
- Oklahoma State, TBD
- #7 Oklahoma, 8:00 PM ET
Unless they stumble, we won’t really know just how good West Virginia is until the back end of the season. Let’s hope they don’t stumble.
East Tennessee State Buccaneers
Current record: 1-0 (0-0), 2nd in Southern
- Beat Mars Hill, 28-7
- Tennessee, 4:00 PM ET
- VMI, 1:30 PM ET ESPN+
- Furman, 7:30 PM ET
- Chattanooga, 7:30 PM ET ESPN+
- Gardner-Webb, 3:30 PM ET ESPN+
- The Citadel, 2:00 PM ET
- Wofford, 1:30 PM ET ESPN+
- W Carolina, 3:30 PM ET ESPN+
- Mercer, 3:00 PM ET ESPN+
- Samford, 1:00 PM ET
UTEP Miners
Current record: 0-1 (0-0), 1st in C-USA – West
- Lost to N Arizona, 30-10
- UNLV, 9:00 PM ET
- Tennessee, 12:00 PM ET
- New Mexico St, 7:30 PM ET
- UTSA, 7:00 PM ET ESPN+
- North Texas, 7:30 PM ET
- LA Tech, 3:30 PM ET ESPN+
- UAB, 7:30 PM ET ESPN+
- Rice, 3:30 PM ET
- Mid Tennessee, 3:00 PM ET ESPN+
- W Kentucky, 7:30 PM ET
- Southern Miss, 3:00 PM ET ESPN+
Florida Gators
Current record: 1-0 (0-0), 1st in SEC – East
- Beat Charleston So, 53-6
- Kentucky, 7:30 PM ET
- Colorado State, 4:00 PM ET
- Tennessee, TBD
- #18 Miss St, TBD
- #25 LSU, TBD
- Vanderbilt, TBD
- #3 Georgia*, 3:30 PM ET CBS
- Missouri, TBD
- S Carolina, TBD
- Idaho, TBD
- #19 Florida State, TBD
Georgia Bulldogs
Current record: 1-0 (0-0), 1st in SEC – East
- Beat Austin Peay, 45-0
- S Carolina, 3:30 PM ET CBS
- Mid Tennessee, 7:15 PM ET
- Missouri, TBD
- Tennessee, TBD
- Vanderbilt, TBD
- #25 LSU, TBD
- Florida*, 3:30 PM ET CBS
- Kentucky, TBD
- #9 Auburn, TBD
- UMass, TBD
- Georgia Tech, TBD
Auburn Tigers
Current record: 1-0 (0-0), 1st in SEC – West
- Beat #6 Washington*, 21-16
- Alabama State, 7:30 PM ET
- #25 LSU, 3:30 PM ET CBS
- Arkansas, TBD
- Southern Miss, TBD
- #18 Miss St, TBD
- Tennessee, TBD
- Ole Miss, TBD
- Texas A&M, TBD
- #3 Georgia, TBD
- Liberty, TBD
- #1 Alabama, TBD
Alabama Crimson Tide
Current record: 1-0 (0-0), 1st in SEC – West
- Beat Louisville*, 51-14
- Arkansas State, 3:30 PM ET
- Ole Miss, 7:00 PM ET
- Texas A&M, TBD
- Louisiana, TBD
- Arkansas, TBD
- Missouri, TBD
- Tennessee, TBD
- #25 LSU, TBD
- #18 Miss St, TBD
- The Citadel, TBD
- #9 Auburn, TBD
South Carolina Gamecocks
Current record: 1-0 (0-0), 1st in SEC – East
- Beat C. Carolina, 49-15
- #3 Georgia, 3:30 PM ET CBS
- Marshall, 7:30 PM ET
- Vanderbilt, TBD
- Kentucky, TBD
- Missouri, TBD
- Texas A&M, TBD
- Tennessee, TBD
- Ole Miss, TBD
- Florida, TBD
- Chattanooga, TBD
- #2 Clemson, TBD
Charlotte 49ers
Current record: 1-0 (0-0), 1st in C-USA – East
- Beat Fordham, 34-10
- App St, 6:00 PM ET ESPN+
- Old Dominion, 6:00 PM ET
- UMass, 3:30 PM ET
- UAB, TBD
- W Kentucky, 3:30 PM ET ESPN+
- Mid Tennessee, 3:00 PM ET
- Southern Miss, 2:00 PM ET
- Tennessee, TBD
- Marshall, 2:30 PM ET ESPN+
- FIU, 2:00 PM ET
- FAU, 6:00 PM ET
Kentucky Wildcats
Current record: 1-0 (0-0), 1st in SEC – East
- Beat Cent Michigan, 35-20
- Florida, 7:30 PM ET
- Murray State, 12:00 PM ET
- #18 Miss St, TBD
- S Carolina, TBD
- Texas A&M, TBD
- Vanderbilt, TBD
- Missouri, TBD
- #3 Georgia, TBD
- Tennessee, TBD
- Mid Tennessee, TBD
- Louisville, TBD
Missouri Tigers
Current record: 1-0 (0-0), 1st in SEC – East
- Beat UT Martin, 51-14
- Wyoming, 7:00 PM ET
- Purdue, 7:30 PM ET BTN
- #3 Georgia, TBD
- S Carolina, TBD
- #1 Alabama, TBD
- Memphis, TBD
- Kentucky, TBD
- Florida, TBD
- Vanderbilt, TBD
- Tennessee, TBD
- Arkansas, 2:30 PM ET CBS
Vanderbilt Commodores
Current record: 1-0 (0-0), 1st in SEC – East
- Beat Mid Tennessee, 35-7
- Nevada, 12:00 PM ET
- #12 Notre Dame, 2:30 PM ET NBC
- S Carolina, TBD
- Tennessee St, TBD
- #3 Georgia, TBD
- Florida, TBD
- Kentucky, TBD
- Arkansas, TBD
- Missouri, TBD
- Ole Miss, TBD
- Tennessee, TBD
I’m at 5.57 now, down from 6.15 last week – a bowl still in the cards by the thinnest of margins.
How much of that was what Tennessee did and how much was what the future opponents did?
Mostly Tennessee – I’m down about 5% for Florida, South Carolina, Missouri, UK, and Vandy, plus the 30% chance I gave us to beat West Virginia.
6.9… expect real improvement as season progresses. Go Vols!
I like your enthusiasm!
Went from 6.20 to 4.55. Secondary is porous and so is the OL. I think we will win 1 SEC game of the three at the end of the season. On the plus side, it looked like we knew what we wanted to do. People were generally in the right spots and we didn’t have a ton of turnovers or penalities. We also had one really long drive for a TD, which is better than we did all last year under The Intern. It was a little irritating to see the WV coach fist pump a late TD throw by… Read more »
5.55
I think we can beat the lower tier of the East if we can continue playing disciplined. However, that passing defense needs to improve quickly or will get exposed by previous winnable games like SC and Mizzou. So I expect we’ll beat Vandy and UK, but having a hard time finding a sixth win. It’s pointing towards Florida so hopefully we can make improvements these next two weeks. Mistakes usually dictate the Florida game so I’m optimistic that we can pull it off.
I’m down to a 5.30 I thought the defense even though they are young, would be improved. Twice during the game we only had 10 men on the field. Kongbo was non-existent and I thought he would thrive in this defense. O-line started out horrible but improved throughout the game, Jahmir Johnson was a bright spot, on the Jordan touchdown run he took out three defenders at once. On twitter I ate some crow, I give JG2 credit for working hard to improve from a year ago. His passes were crisp and made it through some tight coverage. I would… Read more »
I’m down from (I think) 5.12 to 4.98. Pretty close. I would imagine most of that is attributable to my WVU score dropping to 0.