Category Archives: Football

So here’s the thing: I’ve never actually written about a Good Football Team before. (For reference: I wrote from 2009 to 2017 or so, give or take a few months. I think. Memory is hazy these days.) Sure, you could argue the first half of Tennessee’s 2016 was a good team; on the other hand, that team gave us Champions of Life. I don’t think I can count that. I enjoyed 2012 way more than anyone had any right to but that team wasn’t good. (I’m not not planning on writing a Milton vs. Bray Tale of the Tape in ::checks calendar:: June? Man, being good at a lot of sports now is weird.)

2007? That season was hilarious and I will always enjoy the drive-it-like-you-stole-it ness of everything after Georgia, but I hadn’t started writing yet. 2001 and 1998 pre-date my Tennessee fandom; they aren’t really my teams in the way they’re Will or Joel’s (or your) teams.

Is there any other season pre-Heupel that would fit? I don’t think so; we had Good Football Moments, but not really Good Football Team.

Enter 2022, or rather, enter 2021 then look behind you. Pruitt wasn’t going to work out; regardless of the process that led us to Pruitt, you can’t run the 2012 Alabama playbook with less talent in 2018 and expect better results; even Alabama wasn’t running the 2012 Alabama playbook.  I still think the process ended up in as good a place as we could’ve hoped for, even if we ended up as College Football Twitter’s main character for a solid three weeks. Regardless: brunch and a desire to just move on did Pruitt in; another season or two would’ve done the trick.

Anyway, back to 2021. What did I know about Josh Heupel? Well, his teams were fun to watch; I probably watched more UCF than I did Tennessee for a year, maybe two. UCF games were reliably fun for a neutral and the 12 lead changes in almost every game didn’t matter to me since I didn’t really root for UCF. Would I call those UCF teams good? Eh. They were fine, and they were fun, and honestly during the Pruitt era “fine” and “fun” were enough for me to turn Heupel into appointment viewing.

And hey, that’s what 2021 was! It was fun, and it was fine. Watching Heupel’s teams a little more closely made me realize he tries to coach teams with a high floor; run enough plays and be successful enough to score on a couple more possessions than your opponent and that’ll be enough to beat most teams you have more talent than.  For all Tennessee’s struggles, there was still talent. The questions were twofold: 1) could Heupel recruit enough to raise the talent floor? 2) could Heupel get teams that had more talent? We saw flashes of the latter—Georgia 2021 being the best example, even if they were never winning that game—but we didn’t know if that was going to be anything past a flash.

I thought going into 2022 that 8-4 would be, you know, pretty good! We might be able to hang with Alabama or Georgia for a half but we weren’t deep enough, and I guess Kentucky or LSU or Florida are good so maybe beat one of them too, win the rest, and we can call that momentum. That sounds good, right?

Well.

About that.

It didn’t really start to click with me this Tennessee team was a Good Football Team until the third quarter of the Alabama game. That timing is a little weird, right? They blitzed LSU (and we didn’t think that LSU was any good until November, so while ending the LSU game before noon Central time was impressive we didn’t know if it was good, beat Florida but in a way that really didn’t feel comfortable, and even the first half against Alabama was the kind of early-game carnage we had seen before.

But the third quarter? That’s when I realized Alabama was emptying the tank against us. They didn’t have a choice if they wanted to win the game; that’s when I realized we belonged. We were a Good Football Team.

Of course, we know how that game ended, and we know what it feels like to be back at the top of the mountain, if only for a few days. Yeah, it was only a few days, and yep South Carolina sucked (it looked like a Madden-style No Way Game), but 10-2? That’s pretty good. 

Demolishing Vanderbilt after losing Hendon Hooker? Proof of concept this is sustainable. We didn’t necessarily need to know that, but another hallmark of a Good Football Team is being able to handle key losses.

While we’re here: beating Clemson was ….comfortable? As comfortable as three missed field goals by Clemson could be considered comfortable. It felt unhurried, like the team knew how to play to win instead of playing to not lose. Will talked about this a lot already; I’ll come back to it once I knock some of the rust off.

I have no idea where it goes from here; it looks sustainable and I don’t think it’ll stop being fun, but it’s worth looking back to remember how far we came. This whole Good Football Team is pretty new for a lot of us; it’s okay to take some time to reflect.

There is, on one hand, a finality to bowl games. The story of your season is now closed, the aftertaste settling in. And even a top-tier bowl’s ability to endure on its own merits will soon pivot hard to the 12-team playoff, where a game like #6 Tennessee vs #7 Clemson would take place, much to everyone’s preference.

So in some ways, this Orange Bowl win is already a relic. It already belonged on a list of the highest-ranked bowl match-ups the Vols have participated in since 1985, topped only by Tennessee’s peak from 1995-99. And in victory, it joins Happy New Years like Ohio State in the Citrus Bowl from that 1995 season, or beating Arkansas in the Cotton Bowl following 1989. A Top 10 win to put the exclamation point on your year.

But the story of this particular season is tied up to so many others. A stubborn, beautiful interconnectedness of college football, and maybe all sports. So there are a thousand stories to be told about how this team separated itself from the last 15 years. But there are a thousand more about how they also positioned themselves alongside the best of Tennessee’s best.

Eleven wins separates you by itself. In my lifetime, that’s 1989, 1995, 1997, 1998, 2001, and now 2022. There’s also who made up those 11; in Tennessee’s case, wins over six ranked teams ties the program record from 1998.

If you’re looking for the most impressive company this team can now keep, I think it’s this:

Multiple Top 7 Wins at Tennessee since 1965

• 1985: #1 Auburn, #2 Miami
• 1989: #6 UCLA, #4 Auburn
• 1998: #2 Florida, #7 Georgia, #2 Florida State
• 2022: #3 Alabama, #7 Clemson

There are words to be said about Joe Milton, and we’ll have an entire off-season to do more of that. Some of them will include how spoiled we quickly become, when a performance hitting nine yards per attempt with three touchdowns and no interceptions against Clemson is viewed as, “Pretty good start, maybe some room for improvement.”

He’ll enter spring practice as QB1, and be joined by an infusion of talent on both sides of the ball. It is, of course, too early to say exactly what that will look like on either side. But one more word here, for this defense, the 2022 version.

In the next-to-last game of the regular season, Tennessee gave up nine touchdowns in ten drives at South Carolina. The Gamecocks are still better than we thought at the time, despite their Gator Bowl loss yesterday. How high is their September 30 visit on your most-looked-forward-to-games list next year?

But before it all becomes about next year, in the two remaining games of this one? With questions about the culture circling, the Vol defense returned one surprise for another. Vanderbilt scored zero points in 14 drives. Then Clemson, in their 14 drives, scored a single touchdown. Twenty-eight drives, one touchdown. Believe that.

Believe is the word, now etched both in stone and our hearts. The primary work of this team was already done before the Orange Bowl, and no negative outcome could take away Tennessee’s proximity to “back”, or our belief that this program can make a 12-team playoff.

But a win – this win – gives even more sight to faith. This morning, in thinking about the finality of Tennessee’s 2022 season, I find myself even more grateful for the ways it already has been transformative, and could continue to be into the future. In the last 15 years, we’ve caught brief glimpses of the promised land; maybe they were a mirage, maybe they were a sliver of the real thing. In 2009 when Lane Kiffin’s team beat Georgia, we could tell ourselves maybe we never really left. In 2011 when Tennessee’s offense looked so incredible for 60 minutes against Cincinnati, only to lose two of its best players to injury immediately after. And those six weeks in 2016, when we were most convinced we were crossing over and thus most disappointed when we ultimately didn’t.

And then this team, including more than a handful of players who stayed through our most uncertain times to come. This team, who played well enough last year to make us believe we might catch a glimpse of it in the off-season. This team, who rejected the notion that this program was ever in exile, left the wilderness with the quickness, then needed no bridge to cross directly into the promised land.

Just one more year ahead, it will be a land flowing with 12-team brackets, Texas and Oklahoma, and nine game SEC schedules. It will not only look different, but feel it, all our rhythms adjusting to a new reality and new definitions of fruitfulness. New opportunities to chase the biggest prize of all.

And this team – this team – made us believe we can do it. First by faith, then by sight. And, after last night? More than ever.

Go Vols.

It’s still wild to me, and quite a pleasure, to be typing “Orange Bowl Preview” into that box up there. The incredible ride of this football season makes its final approach tomorrow night, already secure in our hearts, ready to bridge the gap into next year. For an encore, the 2022 Vols can earn the sixth 11-win season since 1970, and join this impressive list:

Multiple Top 10 Wins in a Season (since 1972)

• 2006: #9 California, #10 Georgia
• 1999: #10 Georgia, #10 Alabama
• 1998: #2 Florida, #7 Georgia, #10 Arkansas, #2 Florida State
• 1989: #6 UCLA, #4 Auburn, #10 Arkansas
• 1985: #1 Auburn, #2 Miami

Thin the list to Top 7 wins, which the Vols would have a pair of if they beat Clemson, and you’re down to the last three on that list, and this season. This, again, is the generational company this team is keeping.

How can it happen? Three big questions for tomorrow night:

What’s the intersection of Tennessee’s offense without Hooker and Hyatt with how much better Tennessee’s defense can play to make up the difference? The Vols come to Miami leading the nation in points per game, yards per play, and are the only non-service-academy to average 10+ yards per pass attempt. If there’s a drop-off – hard to do anything else when you’re number one – how much of that could be replaced by an improvement from Tennessee’s defense?

Can Cade Klubnik join Anthony Richardson, Bryce Young, Stetson Bennett, and Spencer Rattler as quarterbacks to average 8.8+ yards per attempt against the Vol defense? After those four, no one else hit more than 6.7 against UT this season. Richardson, Bennett, and Rattler all went for 10+.

Klubnik hit 11.6 yards per attempt against North Carolina; D.J. Uiagalelei peaked at 9.0 against Wake Forest, 8.8 against Florida State. His lows came in the two losses, by far: 4.9 with Notre Dame keeping everything in front of them, and a disastrous 3.4 while completing just 28% of his passes against South Carolina.

One of the biggest places we may see this intersection: Tennessee’s explosiveness. The Vols are first in the nation in 30+ yard plays with 50, 4.2 per game. Hilariously, North Texas and Western Kentucky are tied for second with 47, both having played 14 games. The Vols still found explosiveness with Joe Milton at quarterback through the ground game at Vanderbilt. Can Tennessee still take the top off against Clemson’s defense?

Can Tennessee use Clemson’s own success against them? Coaches who have won at an extremely high level are often slowest to change, because why would you? So as college football has become more aggressive overall in going for it on fourth down, Clemson…has not.

On fourth down, the Tigers have gone for it just nine times. They are one of just four teams in the single digits there nationally, and the only one who has played 13 games. Clemson punts 4.8 times per game. The Vols, by comparison, punt just 2.6 times per game, sixth fewest in the nation.

Tennessee’s success sometimes comes down to how many stops they get. The Tigers, at least on paper, appear much more willing to give you the ball back.

Will what stops Tennessee best – sacks and penalties – show up again? We first looked at this when the Vols were set to take on Georgia: Tennessee punted just six times in wins over Florida, LSU, Alabama, and Kentucky. Five of those came with UT leading by two-plus possessions. But four of them happened because of sacks or offensive pass interference penalties. Then in Athens, Tennessee punted four times, three because of sacks or penalties.

Against Missouri, the Vols punted out of halftime after a sack. But their other punt came when leading by 25 points. At South Carolina, with every possession clearly valuable, the Vols punted down 14-7 after a holding call, punted on the opening drive of the third quarter, then punted on another offensive pass interference call.

So with Hendon Hooker as the starter, Tennessee punted 15 times in seven SEC games. Of those 15 punts, 10 happened because of a sack or penalty. Two others came with the Vols leading by 14+ points.

With Joe Milton at Vanderbilt, the Vols punted four times, and never due to a sack or penalty. But two of those came after UT was ahead 42+ points. Again: it’ll look different, and it previously looked like the best offense in America. But I’ll be curious to see how the pass protection, in particular, changes with Milton involved. That remains Tennessee’s greatest area of improvement from 2021, and could be a deciding factor in the game that’ll bridge 2022 and 2023.

It’s an incredible opportunity at the end of an incredible season. One more for this group’s story, and our first look at what’s to come.

Friday, 8:00 PM ET, ESPN.

Go Vols.

When your guys don’t win or make the podium for these national awards despite compelling and obvious arguments, you learn to look elsewhere for validation. And while I can’t promise all of my 25-year-old thoughts on the Heisman Trophy are entirely healthy, I do think it’s the better option overall. Don’t give others the ultimate say on what your performance was or wasn’t. The greatness of Hendon Hooker, or Eric Berry, or Peyton Manning isn’t first or last defined by what individual awards they did or didn’t win. Perhaps at some point, a Tennessee player will win the Heisman. If they do, that’ll be great. But I wouldn’t consider it redemptive or validating, for that player or any of these others.

And at the same time, when one of our guys does win, we don’t miss opportunities to celebrate. Today, that’s joyfully Jalin Hyatt. Hyatt of, “Will he take a step forward?” in August of this year. Hyatt, who got behind Alabama’s secondary a couple times in 2020, first flashing potential he stepped into with both feet this season. Hyatt, who had two catches for 28 yards in the opener against Ball State, then went nuclear.

There are some truly ridiculous portraits of Hyatt’s season, ones we’ll all spend more time in the off-season breaking down. One of my favorites: in the four-game stretch of LSU, Alabama, UT Martin, and Kentucky, Hyatt caught 11 touchdown passes. If his entire season was just those four games, he would’ve finished tied for fourth on UT’s single-season touchdown list. At Wide Receiver U.

Maybe Hyatt will finish it off in the bowl game; he needs 32 yards to pass Robert Meachem for the single season yardage record, and with a huge 10+ catch game he would pass Marcus Nash for the single season receptions record. Or maybe he’ll consider his NFL future and sit this one out; if he and Cedric Tillman both go that route, we’ll get a fuller look at the 2023 offense right away.

But one of my favorite numbers for him is currently secure: in yards per game, Jalin Hyatt is currently the only Vol receiver to ever finish a season averaging 100+ yards per contest. Robert Meachem has this record with 1,298 yards in 13 games (99.8 per). Hyatt is sitting on 1,267 in 12 games (105.6 per).

There are so many great stories at wide receiver at Tennessee, so many additional factors in certain eras. For a while, “guys who played with Manning” was a whole category in this department. “Guys who played for Heupel,” may become its own thing too. And there has, for sure, been a plethora of straight up NFL talent come through Knoxville; plenty of it is still in the league right now.

But already, Jalin Hyatt put together a season that can stand shoulder to shoulder with any of them, and above them all in some ways. Not just because he won the Biletnikoff. But because of what we’ve already seen him do every single week, at a place where wide receivers have often done it better than anywhere else.

What a pleasure it’s been to watch Jalin Hyatt. And will continue to be, wherever we see him next.

Go Vols.

Congrats to longtime friend of the blog birdjam, who takes home our regular season pick ’em prize by a healthy margin. His 2,181 confidence points earned first place by 54 points over PAVolFan in a hotly contested battle for second place. Also, shout out to birdjam, cnyvol, spartans100, and aaron217, all of whom hit 70+% in picking games straight up this year.

The Top 10 from the regular season is at the bottom of this post – we now turn our attention to the postseason, where 40+ bowl games await. Our bowl pick ’em is now live and free to play at Fun Office Pools. If you’re new with us, we pick each bowl game straight up using confidence points: 42 points assigned to the bowl you feel most confident in, one point for the bowl you feel least confident in, etc. It’s free to play and lots of fun – you can join at the link, and leave any questions in the comments below.

Regular Season Pick ‘Em Top 10

1. birdjam – 2,181 points
2. PAVolFan – 2,127
3. wedflatrock – 2,125
4. UNDirish60 – 2,123
5. aaron217 – 2,122
6. cnyvol – 2,120
7. jeremy.waldroop – 2,102
8. Jahiegel – 2,097
9. spartans100 – 2,092
10. jfarrar90 – 2,078

The most important work this season is already done: the Vols are back in the championship chase, and would be preparing for round one as we speak in a 12-team playoff, soon to become the clear answer to a season’s success. A job well done earns additional rewards: this team is in a New Year’s Six bowl for the first time, equivalent to the old BCS model where Tennessee last appeared following the 1999 season.

For Tennessee and now Clemson, the quarterbacks will give this one a feel of both present and future. Bowl games always create both the aftertaste and the first assumption. I do wonder if there’s a bit of either/or for Clemson in this one: the Tigers finished in the Top 5 and the CFP six years in a row from 2015-2020, with two national championships. But last season they went 10-3, finishing 14th. They’re obviously out of the playoff, but did retake the ACC and can earn another Top 5 finish if they close it out in the Orange Bowl. Or, with a loss, you’ve got back-to-back three-loss campaigns. That hasn’t happened at Clemson since 2010-11.

There’s a bit of full circle here: when last we met following the 2003 season, the Vols narrowly missed a bigger prize. Tennessee was sixth in the AP poll at the end of the regular season, eighth in the BCS. The Vols, Gators, and Dawgs were in a three-way tie for the SEC East, awarded to Georgia on its higher BCS ranking (seventh) the previous week. But after LSU beat them 34-13 in Atlanta, the Vols were the second-highest SEC team in the final rankings.

Because the Sugar Bowl had the national championship in 2003, there was no auto-bid for the highest remaining SEC team after LSU. And Miami was still both elite and in the Big East; they were ranked behind the Vols in the final rankings thanks to UT’s win in Coral Gables, but that extra conference champ bid left only a single at-large spot, which went to #5 Ohio State.

And from there, shenanigans: the Citrus Bowl took Georgia, the Outback took the home-grown Gators, and the #6 Vols fell all the way to the Peach Bowl, the same place they ended the previous season at 8-4. The opponent was unranked Clemson, trying to ascend in Tommy Bowden’s fifth year. There was a fight in pregame warmups, and Tennessee finished the game with 10 penalties for 119 yards. The Tigers won 27-14, and what could’ve been another Top 5 finish for Tennessee and a clear return to the program’s best days after 2002 was left instead with a frustrating aftertaste.

If you quantify those very best days by how high the Vols finished in the nation, the 2022 squad has a chance to join elite company. Tennessee finished in the Top 5 in 1967 and again in 1970. Since then:

Top 5 Finishes at Tennessee Since 1970:

• 1985: The SEC champion SugarVols went from unranked to #4 in the final poll after blowing out #2 Miami in New Orleans
• 1989: Another unranked-to-SEC-champs team, the CobbWebb Vols went 11-1 and earned a three-way tie for the league title, finishing #5 after beating then-SWC champs #10 Arkansas in the Cotton Bowl
• 1995: Peyton Manning’s sophomore season, the Vols lost at Florida but beat everyone else, including #4 Ohio State in the Citrus Bowl, to finish 11-1 and #3.
• 1998: The BCS national champions were #10 in preseason but #4 after beating Florida, and ran the table for the program’s first consensus national title since 1951. Tennessee went to #1 on November 9 and never relinquished it.
• 2001: A wild ride with one infamous and two memorable finishes down the stretch: #7 on November 18, #2 on December 2 after beating Florida, #8 after losing to LSU in Atlanta, then finishing at #4 after blowing out Michigan in the Citrus Bowl.

The work is already done this year in getting the program not just out of a 15-year wilderness, but back to the championship conversation. And Tennessee can also end it as a team not just in-the-hunt, but an 11-win, Top 5 squad that can stand shoulder-to-shoulder with anyone in the modern era behind 1998.

To get there, all of those five teams had to get one final Top 10 victory. The 2001 team got theirs in Gainesville in December after September 11, then beat #17 Michigan in the bowl game. The rest played a Top 10 squad in the postseason; it’s the nature of the beast in having a season this good.

If the Vols knock off #7 Clemson, they’ll also tie 1998 for the most wins over ranked teams in a single season at UT:

Wins vs Ranked Teams

• 6 in 1998: #17 Syracuse, #2 Florida, #7 Georgia, #10 Arkansas, #23 Mississippi State, #2 Florida State
• 5 in 2022: #17 Pittsburgh, #20 Florida, #25 LSU, #3 Alabama, #19 Kentucky
• 4 in 2001: #14 LSU, #12 South Carolina, #2 Florida, #17 Michigan
• 4 in 1991: #21 UCLA, #23 Mississippi State, #13 Auburn, #5 Notre Dame

The 2022 Vols have already tied the 1991 Vols by getting in seven ranked-vs-ranked games in a single season.

Even in the age of opt-outs, the bowl game gets the last and first word on a team’s present and future. This one can also make an even deeper connection with Tennessee’s past, putting the 2022 Vols with some incredible company.

We’ll be delighted to see a Tennessee team like this in a 12-team playoff. But until then, this Orange Bowl against Clemson will certainly do. And with a win, the Vols can continue to show that there aren’t too many Tennessee teams like this, period.

The 2022 Vols have given us an incredible journey. All that’s left is the destination.

Go Vols.

When Tennessee beat LSU, we wrote this about the week to come:

You can think whatever you want about “back”; that’s a question we already learned we can’t really even answer until the entire story of this season has been written. This team has skipped so many steps in this rebuild – in that rebuild? – comparisons are hard to come by.

So never mind back. The Vols are here. Beat Bama.

In our Expected Win Total Machine, the Vols finish the regular season exactly who we thought they were on that day:

Beating Bama, of course, will make you believe everything is possible. No complaints or apologies about that; we’ll look forward to having that problem anytime the Vols want to give it to us. But on the other side of two losses and a rousing response from the defense, the entire story of the regular season is now told. Because of the injury to Hendon Hooker, the bowl game will include a higher percentage of next season than usual.

So here, at the end of the regular season, try this one on for size: are the Vols back?

Can you be back and lose to South Carolina the way we did?

It depends, of course, on what you’re looking for when you say “back”. But to me – and I would submit, for all of us – the answer to that question is absolutely yes.

Not because they beat Vanderbilt. Not because they avoided collapse after the South Carolina loss. And not because of the individual highs of Bama, LSU, Florida, you name it.

But in the landscape of college football, the ways we judge a season’s success are about to crystallize. Division titles, BCS/NY6 bowl appearances, all of that is about to merge into a single question: “Can we make the 12-team playoff?”

If we were asking that question right now, the answer would be yes. Best way to believe you can do it again is to know you can do it now.

“Back” was never about winning a national championship and calling everything else incomplete. “Back” is about playing your way into the conversation. Fewer teams and different names back then, but every year from 1989-2007, you went into the year believing the Vols would be in the conversation.

Tennessee’s own strategic plan uses Top 16 finishes to help define success for its programs. It’s in the “chase championships” language from the top: win some, absolutely. But chase them, always. In that sense, conversations will begin to sound like:

• Are we in the hunt for the 12-team playoff in football?
• Can we earn a Top 4 seed in the NCAA Tournament in basketball, to be favored to make the Sweet 16?
• Can we host a regional in pursuit of the College World Series in baseball/softball as one of the Top 16 teams?

In the biggest of pictures, it’s the greatest gift and the greatest accomplishment of this team: they put the Vols back in the championship conversation. More than beating Alabama by itself – but in large part because of it – this team got Tennessee in a four-team playoff chase, and would be hosting a first round game in a 12-teamer right now. This team, who was still that team just 24 months ago.

This team.

And yeah, that South Carolina loss hurts. It’s supposed to. That’s part of being in the conversation too. It hangs in limbo for the moment; if TCU and USC win next weekend, it may not have ultimately mattered. It could ultimately end up sharing that space with the Hobnailed Boot: an incredibly painful Saturday that didn’t end up costing Tennessee much of anything. We’ll see.

But no matter what anyone else does, including Tennessee in its bowl game, this team has already given us the best gift we could’ve asked for this season. The Vols are back in the chase. The past was great, the future is bright. But it’s the present that always matters most; it’s all we’ve ever really got.

And this year, Tennessee gave us an incredible gift.

It’s not over yet. Clemson vs Tennessee in the Orange Bowl will be the leading projection for the Vols this week, if the College Football Playoff poll continues to reflect what we saw in the AP poll today. It would be Tennessee’s most prestigious bowl appearance since a BCS at-large at the end of the 1999 season. It would give us a look at Joe Milton against a Top 10 team.

And – no matter the opponent, but especially if it’s them – it will give us one more meaningful look at this team. If it came against another program chasing championships, that’s a bonus. But this team – this team – has been such a gift, I’m so excited for the opportunity to see them one more time. When the Vols are in a good bowl, it’s like your Christmas extends out another week. For many of us, there’s almost a childlikeness to this group, because they’ve taken us back to those days ourselves.

What a gift this year has been. One more left.

And from here, make no mistake: the chase is on. In the most important conversation? The Vols are back.

This week, our community gives the Vols a 72.1% chance of victory at Vanderbilt. Some of that is the Dores, for sure: even coming off the Georgia loss, fans gave the Vols a 94.1% chance against Vandy two weeks ago.

The rest of it, of course, is Tennessee. The 72.1% number against Vandy is most similar to the 73.8% chance fans gave the Vols against #19 Kentucky a month ago:

2022 Expected Win Percentage at Kickoff via GRT Win Total Machine

Ball State	97.5%
Pitt	62.9%
Akron	98.6%
Florida	66.1%
LSU	59.9%
Alabama	38.3%
UT Martin	98.5%
Kentucky	73.8%
Georgia	45.7%
Missouri	82.7%
South Carolina	86.7%
Vanderbilt	72.1%

We need the full season, including the bowl game, to put this year in its proper context. But a win on Saturday would separate past from present in clear and tangible ways. The Vols would secure their first 10-win season since 2007, could play for their first 11-win season since 2001, and should position themselves nicely for a New Year’s Six bowl. That’s the kind of tangible prize the 2016 team missed out on at the end, something that goes on a t-shirt the way we haven’t seen since the last division title 15 years ago. And if you like looking ahead, every program’s goal is getting ready to be, “Can we make the 12-team playoff?” – win at Vandy, and the Vols would be in good position in a hypothetical expanded playoff if it existed this year. It’s the kind of thing that makes you believe we could do it again.

In that Vanderbilt game six years ago, with the Vols a win away from the Sugar Bowl, things changed very quickly. That Tennessee team had already lost thrice, and was in position to make New Orleans based on the strength of the SEC that season. This Tennessee team can make New Orleans, Miami, or Dallas on their own merits.

But just as Tennessee’s narrative shifted rapidly last week, that 2016 team took a 34-24 lead on the Commodores with three minutes to play in the third quarter. The defense missed opportunities to get off the field on 3rd-and-6 and 3rd-and-10 on the next drive, a Vanderbilt touchdown that cut it to 34-31 in the final minute of the third. Three snaps later, Josh Dobbs fumbled at midfield. Vandy scored again to take a 38-34 lead with 12 minutes to play. The Vols had 1st-and-10 at the 12 on their next drive, but settled for a 37-yard field goal…that missed with 6:46 to go.

Then Vandy went 39 yards on 3rd-and-1. Then they scored two plays later. And just like that, it was out of reach at 45-34 with four minutes to play. The Vols were stopped on 4th-and-4 at the Vandy 13 with 1:37 to play to make it official. Josh Dobbs in that game: 31-of-34 for 340 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions. 31-of-34, but we lost.

It’s the “but we lost”, of course, that the Vols want to avoid this weekend. As we’re still thinking about last weekend, we’ll need this one to help put it into full context too.

There are still a handful of “worst loss since” going around late this week; I get it. I think it is definitely the most surprising loss I can remember; it easily clears that bar relative to expectation at kickoff via Vegas (favored by 22, lost by 25). We’ll still need the rest of the year to see what happens – for instance, one of Tennessee Basketball’s toughest losses became Loyola Chicago, not just for how it happened, but for the way the bracket broke wide open and the sense of what could have been. If TCU and USC keep winning, the Vols may not have made the playoffs either way. We’ll see.

One thing I’ve done this week is track down other bewildering losses of the playoff era among contenders. It’s not to explain away what happened last week; honestly, any real off-the-field issues would actually make it more understandable that the Vols allowed nine touchdowns on ten drives. It’s more to say, for at least one and perhaps all of these programs, you’d still believe they can contend again.

The best comparison comes from friend of the blog Jay:

• 2017: #6 Ohio State lost at unranked Iowa 55-24 as a 21-point favorite. Iowa scored 27 combined points in the previous two weeks, including an overtime loss to Northwestern. A trap game between wins over #2 Penn State and #12 Michigan State, this November 4 loss clearly cost the Buckeyes the playoffs in the long run. One-loss Alabama still got in (and won it all) over these two-loss conference champions, who also fell to #5 Oklahoma in week two.

It’s a great comparison for the sudden surprise of a struggling Iowa offense, the spread, and the stakes. It’s also incredibly helpful in knowing that the Buckeyes, as a program, have had plenty of other chances. A loss like this doesn’t guarantee you’ll never get that close again.

Other comparisons:

• 2016: #5 Louisville lost at unranked Houston 36-10 as a 14-point favorite. Similar to the, “What in the world happened to our defense?!” vibes, Houston put Lamar Jackson in a bottle: 20-of-43 for 211 yards, 25 carries for 33 yards. A shocking loss on November 17, one they did not recover from in also falling to Kentucky the next week. A playoffs-to-Citrus-Bowl fall we will not seek to emulate.
• 2018: #2 Ohio State lost at unranked Purdue 49-20 as a 12-point favorite. Again, the Buckeyes: ambushed on the road and ultimately missing the playoffs because of it.
• 2021: #2 Iowa lost to unranked Purdue 24-7 as an 11-point favorite. Again, Purdue. The Hawkeyes, with three Top 20 wins including #4 Penn State leading up to this one, also lost their very next game to Wisconsin.

So yes, it does happen. And yes, your program can contend again.

How that conversation will sound depends a lot on what the Vols do with Vanderbilt. It will deal specifically with what we see from Joe Milton. But in general, how will this season finish? What will the Vols give themselves a chance to do next: break new ground in the playoff era, or end the season on a two-game slide?

In a season with so many big games and big wins, there’s quite a bit on the line in this last regular season game. Can these Vols find one more big win?

Even after losing to Georgia, last week marked the second-highest confidence level of the season overall. After blowing out Missouri, fans were even more confident the Vols would get to 11 wins than we were coming out of the Alabama game. It did not go that way, of course, but this chart is still a wonder to behold over the course of the entire season:

Officially, the Vols will go to Nashville with Joe Milton as QB1:

https://twitter.com/Vol_Football/status/1594447220132270084

So now, the final question of the regular season carries much more weight: how confident are you the Vols will beat Vanderbilt? The Commodores have won two straight over Kentucky and Florida, and are now battling for bowl eligibility. The Vols, depending on how Tuesday’s playoff poll looks, will be positioning themselves for a New Year’s Six bowl. And in the longest of terms, Tennessee will look to finish off its best season in at least 15 years, would earn its first two-loss regular season in 18 years with a win, and give themselves a chance to play for its first 11-win season in 21 years.

Past, present, and future with Milton, there is a ton to play for Saturday night. How are we feeling this Monday morning?

A season that has surprised us all saved another one for tonight. And this time, unfortunately, it was not the fun kind.

These things always need the full season to find their proper place, as much as the moment may invite us to do otherwise each week. This post will go up on our front page next to one breaking down historical precedent for one-loss teams in the College Football Playoff. Guilty as charged for spending more time on that than previewing South Carolina. Couldn’t help myself: how often have we gotten to spend real time discussing the playoff?

Those are the tangled emotions tonight: an unbelievable rise for a team we collectively expected to finish 8-4, an unbelievable setup for your closing playoff argument (so we thought), and now an unbelievable result to remove that option from the table.

I wrote last week about the inevitability that had suddenly surrounded watching this team play, the way they coasted past Missouri when the Tigers cut it to four in the third quarter. And then tonight, South Carolina’s offense carried a similar feeling.

Even when Tennessee cut it to four themselves, 35-31 with almost ten minutes to play in the third quarter? So much time for this team, it felt like. But Carolina’s offense again pounced, a nine-play drive with only one third down, and a 42-31 lead. Tennessee attacked again, because that’s what we do, moving the ball to what should’ve been the South Carolina 30. But a small but dangerous truth showed itself again: the only way to stop this offense is to make it go backward, and an offensive pass interference call wiped away the chance for points on that drive.

And then South Carolina converted 3rd-and-20 on their following drive. Then they got another first down on a hands to the face penalty on 3rd-and-8. Then they scored. Then Hendon got hurt.

There are many things about tonight that will ultimately run together; none of them will add up to scenarios where we could’ve won given those set of plays. And that’s a frustration the Vols will have to play themselves past, into the future. Beat Alabama the way we did, and you’ll rightfully believe you can do anything. Allow nine South Carolina touchdowns in ten possessions, and you’ll rightfully be concerned you might be more vulnerable than you realized on any Saturday.

Whether this is the biggest loss since whatever will need more time; for many of the younger persuasion, it will have fewer competitors. For Tennessee, and it seems for Joe Milton, there are still 2022 pages left to write. How will the Vols respond against Vanderbilt? What bowl destination are we looking at now, as we wait to see how the playoff poll responds for the New Year’s Six?

There is still a tremendous opportunity to finish this chapter and have it be not just overwhelmingly positive, but transformational. That the story of this team would not be what they lost, but what they gave themselves – and those who’ll follow them – the opportunity to do. Those last few paragraphs will still be quite meaningful for things to come. And if the Vols can continue to play at a championship-conversation level? They’ll have their chances to learn from this and grow, still early in Heupel’s tenure, by winning games that carry this kind of meaning again.

For those of us of the older-ish persuasion, or at least the middle-aged ones? I find some comfort in remembering times when we were avalanched by Florida’s offense in 1995 and 1996, Nebraska’s in 1997, or Florida & Alabama in 2007…and still turned something profound out of those seasons. No one is mistaking this South Carolina team for those offenses, just as no one would’ve with Alabama’s in 2007. There’s a shock value that feels hard to find the right comparison for tonight.

But I also would’ve said the same about beating Alabama blow-for-blow, not too very long ago. Or being number one, even for a single week.

So now, how will these final few pages be written? Even tonight, I’m eager to see them try again.

Go Vols.