Gameday on Rocky Top Podcast – Episode 156 – The Aftermath of Florida

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Joel:
This is the Gameday on Rocky Top podcast episode 156 I'm Joel Hollingsworth and I am with Will Shelton. Will, what was that? Until it or the second time do this, just take two. So

Will:
Right.

Joel:
I

Will:
Yeah.

Joel:
Did the same joke twice. But hey,

Will:
Yeah,

Joel:
You

Will:
I know

Joel:
Know.

Will:
It's still I will say that even in two takes, Joel's intro is more peppy than you thought it was gonna be. And I will say again that after the BYU game, I felt, you know, we wrote about, listen, you just need to embrace this is this is where Tennessee is. We're really probably not doing ourselves any favors, holding onto all of the past and all that stuff. And just this is bad. It's going to be bad for a little bit here. And let's just embrace it. And I thought that that would create a more pleasurable viewing experience no matter what happened with the Gators.

Joel:
Hmm hmm hmm.

Will:
But and I wrote this morning, Monday morning that to see there was a long stretch of that game that was seven to nothing,

Joel:
Mm hmm.

Will:
You know, and like long time wise, because we had to review everything and all that stuff. And even though obviously the Gators end up winning by thirty one in Tennessee, there's not really a version of that game where you could talk years of it of Tennessee winning or driving two tires or something in the fourth quarter. So much of the stuff that seems to happen to Tennessee from right away with a bogus penalty in a dead ball situation. That wasn't a dead ball situation to the self-inflicted stuff to just for the second time in a row. And Gainesville getting within a hair of the end zone and then finding impossible ways to not get into the end zone. It was still really frustrating and I bet it was. If you're listening this podcast, I bet it was for you, too. And so I feel like we got the worst of all worlds where not only did Tennessee lose to the Gators by 31, we did it with a bunch of dumb self-inflicted stuff along the way. Game had seven turnovers in it combined. And just hard to feel much better about much of anything in that whole process. So yeah, that even being braced for bad and the first two games of the season, I think helping with that, the dumb stuff that Tennessee does against Florida continues to be every bit as frustrating, at least for me as it has ever been.

Joel:
Yeah, it's kind of funny. They did the impossible again. They went into a game where they basically had. It was like the first time in forever that they went into the Florida game without any expectations, and they still somehow failed to live up to those. No expectations. All right. The thing is, I thought that. I know they made mistakes, but it didn't seem that it was that the mistakes were really the problem. It seemed to me like they just got beat, I guess. Do you see it differently? Because, I mean, you did mention all the mistakes, but do you think that even absent the mistakes, that it would have been a better game? It didn't seem like it would have been me.

Will:
I think we have to separate it out on on both sides of the ball. I think defensively we need to give the defensive line credit. I didn't do a good enough job of this. I didn't do this at all. And what I wrote, they did a good job stopping the run. I think they did that well. They took a game plan that Kentucky had use against those guys and they've got a backup quarterback in there. So the concerns that we had after Georgia State and after last year of anybody is just gonna get whatever they want running the ball against this team. Not true. So kudos to that. You know, Florida has got talent. They've got talented running backs, that sort of stuff. So good job on that front. I think what is still abundantly clear about this defensive line is they can't get pressure on the quarterback by themselves. Period. Bad offensive. A lot of Florida just didn't seem to matter. And the like. I'm not I'm not mad about that. I'm not frustrated about that. That's just that's who Tennessee is. And that is probably who Tennessee is going to be at least the rest of this year. So if you want to get to the quarterback, you're going to need to send pressure. And if you're gonna do that, you're going to need to be better on the back end. And yeah, I mean, Kyle Trask is you know, you're flirting with 10 plus yards per attempt against Tennessee's defense because he's just got all day to throw in Tennessee doesn't have the guys to cover one on one. So, you know, maybe maybe less of an issue when you're playing, say, South Carolina now or Kentucky or Vanderbilt or Mississippi State. But in a game like that, I mean, it just wasn't it was it was basically pick your poison over the course of the game.

Will:
You can not blitz and get picked apart or you can blitz and really not get to him either way and still give a one on one stuff offensively to me was the all the self-inflicted stuff. A lot of it's guaranteed tanto to be sure, but just just dumb stuff and excruciatingly frustrating stuff. Even the Eric Gray fumble when it's twenty four to three, you're like OK, can we you know, can we at least be feisty, can we at least maintain some interest in some investment. And that didn't didn't work either. It reminded me a little of you were talking about not having any expectations. The one who was at now six years ago, the first Butch Jones year when they go to Oregon and they get decimated by Marcus Mariota and then they go to Gainesville and you're like, well, whatever. And they play Peterman and they get a pick six. And the first 10 minutes, another one of those things that never happen against Florida, sorts of things. And then Peterman does all that stuff that even that's a game that Tennessee is never going to win. It was excruciating just watching them shoot themselves in the foot over and over. So defensively, I think. Yes. Tennessee just got beat. And the problems that are they are not going to go away offensively. I mean, nobody knows really what the answer here is with Garrett. But there was so much just, you know, foot shooting off ness about Tennessee's offense. It was it was very much like I say, every bit as frustrating as any other time against those guys.

Joel:
So I think this is this is going to be painful. So I think we need to take it in small doses. So I'm going to take a quick time out here. All right. So we don't know. We'll get back to all of the all of the stuff. But I wanted to ask you, I I had no idea what to say after the game. Basically, me trying to put words together was kind of like trying to hit dumb wood Anderson on wide open touchdown play. It just wasn't happening for me. Right. So I defaulted to I basically wrote a post about a little house on the Prairie. This is

Will:
Right.

Joel:
What I did. That's

Will:
It's lovely.

Joel:
How it how I dealt with it. Right. So as part of this time out, do you have a favorite TV show that you're going to force on your children because they have no choice? At some point from from your childhood favorite childhood TV show.

Will:
I already have my son is getting ready to turn 2 this week and he loves like Superman, Batman. All that stuff and.

Joel:
The old school is.

Will:
Well, that's what is going to say. Is he? It's so weird raising a child in an on demand

Joel:
Mm hmm.

Will:
Universe when you didn't grow up in it. You know, of like, oh, I can just say Batman into my remote. And he has learned he can just say Batman into the remote. And that man will appear on the television with lots of options to buy versions of that for 14, 19 night or whatever.

Joel:
You

Will:
But.

Joel:
Can be careful with it.

Will:
Yeah. No.

Joel:
Yeah.

Will:
Yes, we've we've we learned from it, we came in the room one day and what is the movie Deepwater Horizon. That movie

Joel:
Oh.

Will:
Was playing and Alex and I saw it in the theater. It's a fine movie. It's not a sort of movie you want to watch twice. But I was like, this is on. No, he bought it. And then and then he bought an episode of the television show Turn so it twice to learn. But yes, now

Joel:
Okay.

Will:
There's a real passcode on the purchases. But anyway, I do have on DVD, I have the I bought it years ago, the Batman animated series from the early 90s when I was in middle school. That where Mark Hamill does the voice of the Joker and all that good stuff. So

Joel:
Oh.

Will:
We need some of those are not two year old appropriate, but just to kind of change up the Batman variety. I have. I have put that on there. And I do have the old Adam West Batman. I'm looking at the DVD to it right now. Actually, the the old Adam West bang pow.

Joel:
Yes.

Will:
That bad stuff as well. So, yes, there it's. That's. That was in heavy rotation in our household before things. Things with battle football, football front.

Joel:
That's the one I remember that Adam y stuff when I was little. That was that was awesome. Speaking of your children navigating the Internet, you know, just basically getting behind the wheel for a joyride. When only was man, she'd only been home with us maybe a couple of years, maybe even a years. She must been three or four. And all of a sudden. I mean, I think Angela gave her or Angela stood up from the computer and only was just like pushing buttons. And it wasn't 60 seconds later that she was on an Asian dating wave website. So, yeah, you got to be careful, those kids, man. Yeah. Okay. So anyway. All right. Now I feel better. But let's get back to Florida. I was OK. You were actually complimentary of the defensive line, at least

Will:
Against,

Joel:
As

Will:
Right?

Joel:
Against

Will:
Yes.

Joel:
The run. Right. So because as I was trying to figure out what really went wrong, I was thinking, OK, you know, we got it. We had a suspect offensive line. They had a suspect offensive line. We have a suspect defensive line. And I think the difference was that there's their defensive line was actually a decent S.E.C. defensive line. So, you know, they could they could do to our offense what we didn't want to have done. And then our defensive line was basically the problem on defense for us, because they couldn't. As you said, they couldn't rush by themselves, which meant that you had to bring blitz is I think generally we brought Blitz is from the linebackers, which left the middle of the field wide open the whole time. And I think maybe at one point we we'd probably started rushing corners. But by that time I was just dazed and confused. So who knows? But I think that was basically the big problem. Did the deed. You already mentioned that. That's kind of what we're going to have to deal with the rest of the year. But is there anything we can do besides just hoping we don't play teams like Missouri and Alabama?

Will:
It's a good question. I mean, I just don't know. This is one of the most frustrating things about what's happening right now, is normally this is the point where you would say, let's just play all the young guys. But a lot of those guys are already playing.

Joel:
Mm hmm.

Will:
So Pruitt has recruited this well for 20, 20 events. He's able to hold onto to their current commitments. Two of their top four highest rated commitments right now are defensive linemen. So you've got some. Some positive outlook for the future. Obviously, you're going to get Emmit Gooden back next year as well. But I mean, it's it's just not there. And this is the wrong conference for that problem.

Joel:
Mm hmm.

Will:
So I just think that, you know, when we go back and look at at sack totals, Tennessee's whole decade here is Derek Barnett is the outlier, but really changed the whole conversation about how we view Tennessee's pass rush for three years there. But outside of one leads, you know, the NFL playmaking, defensive end. Tennessee hasn't had those guys just I mean, just has not had those guys on the defensive line for a very long time now. And they've recruited some of them. Well, I mean, Kahlil McKenzie is is Exhibit

Joel:
Mm hmm.

Will:
A for. You get the guy, you think he's gonna make the biggest difference and it just hasn't happened. Those guys have not been developed.

Joel:
In total to.

Will:
Yeah. Shai Tuttle. You know, there's a version of shots that all you'd like to see if he doesn't get just a gruesome injury against Georgia. A couple of years ago. But that's a guy that still is on an NFL roster.

Joel:
Yeah.

Will:
You know, so is that particular problem gonna get better as the year goes on for four upperclassmen, four guys like Darrell Taylor in this mix, and I know Taylor's playing more of what we consider outside linebacker and this defense, but there's there's a lot of those names, those upper classmen names that you're just kind of like if the light hasn't come on for these guys or maybe the light did come on. And it's just not as bright as we wanted it to be. They're just not as talented as you were hoping they would be. There's just I just don't know how it's gonna get a whole lot better this year before we even begin to talk about somebody's gonna get hurt. Is is the quality of this line play going to improve week to week or is it going to be this is as good as it is now and they get beat up as the year goes on? I just I just don't know. But an inability to affect the quarterback. It's just one of a thousand things that'll get you killed against Alabama and Georgia and maybe Missouri. But it is a thing that makes playing a team like Florida and Florida with a backup quarterback when you're going up against other quarterbacks in the SCC that are on teams that are still winnable games for Tennessee, South Carolina, Mississippi State, all that stuff. If you can't affect a lesser quarterback into bad decision making, you're gonna make those guys comfortable. And I mean, we saw Trask was comfortable. I mean, when was he uncomfortable in that game? On Saturday. So I've the ingredients that Tennessee is going to need to beat teams better than left on their schedule. Mississippi State, Kentucky affecting course, shaky quarterbacks is on that list. And I'm I'm just not sure how good Tennessee's gonna be at that all year.

Joel:
I'm assuming you haven't seen the sports source yet this week,

Will:
No, I have not I haven't had a budget.

Joel:
Will Overstreet said something I thought was really interesting. He was really frustrated with the defensive line, primarily due to the fact that he said these guys don't have any moves except engaging with the guy in front of them and trying to push him back. They got no moves. You know, they're not trying to get around him. They don't have a swim move or whatever the defensive line moves that you are that you used to get around your blocker. They're just not trying to get around their guys. I just thought that was really interesting. I don't know if they're taught that way because, you know, I think in some schemes, what you're supposed to do is just occupy that guy. So the linebackers of have free gaps, you know. But anyway, he was really frustrated by that. He said Daniel Tooley was the best. Best pass rusher that we had. So anyway, I just thought that was interesting.

Will:
Yeah, I think that's the on the worst case. Like even now, there's always a worse version of what's happening in that sort of stuff. Somewhere on the worst case scenario list is. Oh, all these defensive coaches and all these guys really don't have a whole lot of practice. Not dealing with elite talent. So, you know, do they have the skill set, is it the same skill set or do they have the skill set to say, all right, while we're waiting on the four and five star guys to get here, can we turn three star talent into meaningful difference making, you know, kinds of guys in the SCC and I don't know.

Joel:
Yeah. All right. Quarterback on the change at halftime, number one. Were you surprised that they pulled Garen Tano and put it in Mauer? And did you did you like it?

Will:
Yes, I was surprised only because I believed those guys and not just those guys. I believed everybody that that covers this team that knows a whole lot about what's going on over there, what's actually going on over there than than you and I do that said, hey, no, like Gear Tennant really is the best option. And and I just know from the recruiting set that really Harrison Bailey that's coming in next year is kind of the anointed one here or whatever. So we'll we'll see about that. But so, yeah, it's it surprised me as poorly as he played in the first half. You're down 17 to nothing. You're not down 27 to nothing or something like that. You were gonna get the ball. It some plays were there. You know, obviously Cheney had drawn up some stuff that was working if it was executed correctly. So I just I just believed that guaranteed I still gave him the best chance to win. I think it does speak to some concerns. My assumption is that it speaks to some concerns about what's going on between the years for Gary and Santo, that that just the miscues, not just the wide open missed touchdown on wood, Anderson, that the miscues on swing passes, which is hot in Tennessee from the second play of the season and is a culprit in that loss to Georgia state. I think that there is some concern there among those guys that he just is not right and might not get right in this system.

Will:
I liked Mauer for the same reason everybody likes the backup quarterback, which is it made me interested. It made me more interested in what was happening. And that's kind of the point that we're at is let's see what this kid can do. I like the confidence he you know, he got away with a the the Billy don't be a hero throw. He got away with that on opening drive without throwing an interception. Interception. He did throw it was it was a battered ball sort of thing. So I don't know. Again, can they develop quarterbacks? Cheney can. We've seen that. And Cheney can do reclamation, too. But then when they put guaranteed a back in the game. It made me think, OK. Did they just do this whole thing to try to wake him up, to shake him up? Do you want to. This is this is the big to me, the most interesting topic of conversation right now in terms of this particular team is do you just go ahead and roll Brian Maurer out there and let him go against Georgia, Mississippi State and Alabama? Or do you wait? Which is what West Rucker was advocating. Wait until South Carolina and let him take that backstretch sort of thing. And everybody says, well, you know, Dobbs went in, doesn't have a choice at

Joel:
Yeah.

Will:
That point in time. What's his name? Oh, man. Oh, for God's sake. Riley Ferguson was was secretly hurt, right? We didn't know that. And it was either Dobbs or Peterman at that point in time. So, you know, there was no choice other than to play Josh Dobbs. Against that gauntlet, given the option, I think you wait and see what they did with Tyler Bray in 2010 as it put him in there and the back half. So it's different again. Bray, you knew Bray was going to be your guy in the years ahead. I don't know that they feel that way about Mauer. And again, remember, Garen Tanto is a redshirt junior. Technically, he could play next year. It's who knows what to expect with all this. Now, you know, people have made the point and there's some words to it that man guaranteed. It looks like a guy that could use a graduate transfer. You know that they could they could use a fresh start somewhere. And plenty of other folks have benefited from that. And man, God bless him if that's what he wants to do now. But. It just made me interested in the ways that playing a backup quarterback makes anyone interested, it didn't make me particularly feel better about Tennessee's chances going forward. What do you think? I mean, do you do you play him now against Georgia? Do you? I don't ask having any particular answer to this. I just I think it's an interesting conversation.

Joel:
To answer the question, I think you go with Gary Dano. I think you try to find the Jonathan Crompton magic. I think for well, I got several other topics here. And I think as we walk through them, it will it will make sense.

Will:
Gotcha.

Joel:
Why? Why? I'm thinking that couple of points just on the change right now, though, quick, is that the team had more juice when Mauer came in. But I don't know whether that was juice because of Mauer or because of the boot. But chewing they probably got at halftime. So you can't really know why they had a higher level of energy. But I will say to you that I'm beginning to wonder whether Garen Tano is the right personality that this team needs right now. He's like the super calm, chill dude, which can be effective on a team that's doing well, but a team that needs energy, maybe not, you know. And then also it seems like if some of this reading between the lines and some of these articles or some of these interviews, that maybe part of his challenge is sort of confidence and insecurity and getting sort of beaten by prior mistakes, you know. And I you know, I can see why that would be. You almost can't blame the guy. I mean, he's had three years of trouble on Rocky Top, you know. And so, you know, I really don't blame him for that. But it's it's not something that's going to help the team. If when he makes a mistake, if he starts hanging his head and nobody feels confident from being around him anymore, you know.

Joel:
But that said, yanking him and then with with the intent of putting him back back in later, for a guy whose main problem is confidence, that doesn't seem like the right move, you know. So I still think that just because we've seen Mauer, we've seen shout, those guys might be fine in the future, but they're not right now. I still think the best opportunity is guaranteed snow and I still think he can do it. I remember I think we had a podcast with probably Spencer and Holly Anderson both on it. And I I want to say I remember Holly saying something about Crompton. We'll never be any good because he can't throw an eight yard screen pass. If you throw an eight yard screen pass into the ground, you're just a terrible quarterback and you will never be anything but a terrible quarterback. And I don't know whether I said it or whether I was just thinking it, but I think is when when everything's going wrong. Nothing is going right? Yeah, I mean. I mean, you can trip up the stairs. It doesn't mean you can't walk up the stairs, right. Just something was going wrong at the time. Maybe you were thinking about something else. And then I think we did see it. Later it was Cheney at that point. Right. With Crompton.

Will:
Yes. Yes.

Joel:
Okay. So so with Crompton. Here he was. He was terrible. It was a new coordinator, which I'm going to get to in a minute. And they figured something out and he got effective toward the end of the season. So you got to find it. I think that is the path to some degree of success for this season. Figure out. How Garen Tanner can be his best on this team this year. That's what I want to see. So the coordinators we've talked we've touched on this several different times. I think we have missed or underestimated the challenge of a new coordinator. We've got two new two new coordinators this year, and I'm working on a post for this. And because my memory is not very good, I have to do research. But I'm going to test yours because I know you actually have a good memory. Okay. So.

Will:
Everest now.

Joel:
Okay. So here it comes. 2008, eight formers been there forever. Chavis. Defensive coordinator. Been there forever. He gets a new offensive coordinator. And Dave Clawson, whole thing comes unglued. Former gets fired. Right. So then we got a whole new coaching staff, the coaching camera in 2009, and it takes him several games to figure it out. I don't remember with it how the defense was right out of the gate that year. Do you remember?

Will:
Well, great, because they were playing a terrible UCLA team and then against the Gators. Someone was talking about this in the comments on one of our pieces this past week where Kiffin took the air out of the ball in that game and Urban Meyer took that shot at him in the postgame about not actually trying to win the game, which is a little true. But. And then they were they were okay against Auburn. That was like twenty six to twenty two that Tennessee lost the game to Auburn before the Crompton Magic hit the following week against Georgia. And then they were really good the rest of the year when they weren't playing lackluster at Ole Miss or one of the most underrated Virginia Tech teams of all time that finished third and S&P plus that year. So, you know, pretty good, I thought, with Mike given.

Joel:
Ok. But the offense struggled for at least several games. OK. So 2010 Kiffin is gone. You got Dooley, you got a whole brand new staff. I don't even remember who is was it was Wilcox his first defensive coordinator. And his first

Will:
That was

Joel:
Offensive?

Will:
The wait. Are you sure we don't want this guy to just be our head coach hire. Like, are you sure he's not more qualified than Derek Dooley? OK.

Joel:
Yeah. Yeah. Who is the offensive coordinator for Dooley? First time around. First

Will:
Still,

Joel:
Year.

Will:
Jim Chaney kept him,

Joel:
Oh,

Will:
Kept

Joel:
That's

Will:
Him

Joel:
Right.

Will:
On board

Joel:
Yeah.

Will:
There.

Joel:
Okay. All right. So you had some continuity there was the offense in a good.

Will:
In 10, that was so intense. That's Matt Simms for the first. Until South Carolina, when they brought in Bray and then almost won the game, and then Bray, you know, feasted on the back end of that schedule. I will also point out about 2010, you still got some former players rolling around in their den areas more General Jones, these guys on offense still still floating around in their head that he had Derek and Justin Hunter were freshmen. So offense offense looked great when playing lesser competition with stud freshman quarterback at the end of the year.

Joel:
Ok, 2011 comes when did Willcox Bolt after his first year. I got hear.

Will:
After the second year, after they lost to Kentucky and it looked like Dooley was not going to make it.

Joel:
Ok, so we'll cut.

Will:
2011 defense, so you had continuity in 10 and eleven,

Joel:
Ok.

Will:
But Bray and Justin Hunter get hurt in the first five games of the season and then your defense has to go against Alabama, LSU and Arkansas, who are elite teams without any sort of offense to back it up.

Joel:
Ok, 2012 Wilcox leaves duly hires Sal Sunseri, which doesn't work, and I think the office was good that year. It was still Cheney.

Will:
Still, Cheney Bray. Oh, yeah. All those guys that scored 30. It's what I used to tell Georgia fans when they were worried about hiring Jim Chaney as I was like, look, it's not his fault. It's something like they scored more than thirty five points eight times and gave up more than thirty five points eight

Joel:
Yeah,

Will:
Times. So it's

Joel:
Yeah.

Will:
Not his fault. Yeah.

Joel:
That was all sensory. So he got duly fired. And then the whole the whole team leaves because Butch Jones brings in the best coaching staff in America from Cincinnati.

Will:
Right.

Joel:
Right.

Will:
Right.

Joel:
I'm sorry I stole your joke. Hey.

Will:
I stole. I stole it from J. Back in the in the rocket top dog days. That is that's Jay's joke

Joel:
Jay with

Will:
Copier.

Joel:
Four wise.

Will:
Jay. No, Jay

Joel:
Jay

Will:
Brenner,

Joel:
Brenner. OK.

Will:
Citizens eyes. Eyes. That is like he made that joke in the press conference. So that is a day one joke from Jay and he should get credit for

Joel:
Ok.

Will:
It.

Joel:
Good. All right. So that. OK. We're talking 20, what, 13, 14 now?

Will:
A third 13 is Bush's first year yet.

Joel:
Ok. So we got. I don't remember. Defense was.

Will:
Jan, Jan, SEC

Joel:
John

Will:
And

Joel:
Jan SEC

Will:
Mike. Mike in running

Joel:
For

Will:
The offense.

Joel:
Jake Yelich. Okay, all right. How long those guys last?

Will:
So but Jake, in leaves after two years and then 15 you get Jan SEC is still the defensive coordinator. But you bring in Mike Debord at the start of the 2015 season.

Joel:
Ok.

Will:
So you had to. Two years, same as duly the first two years, you had the same offensive and defensive coordinators.

Joel:
Ok. And then we had those two guys for. No, Jan SEC then left after his third year was asked to leave. Right.

Will:
Asked to leave after. Yeah, there's there's some off the field stuff probably going on there. He's after the Outback Bowl leaves and we get Bob Shoop.

Joel:
Super excited about Bob Shoop

Will:
Indeed.

Joel:
Didn't work

Will:
Bad,

Joel:
At least.

Will:
Yes. As they would say.

Joel:
Bad fit.

Will:
With Butch Jones.

Joel:
Yeah.

Will:
Yeah. Bad. Bad fit. Yes.

Joel:
Ok. Did the offensive coordinator change that you're there, was it was the board

Will:
Still still the board.

Joel:
Ok? He actually did pretty good. Did it do well in his first year to.

Will:
What is your definition of doing well? I would in fifth 15 is we're not going to let Dobbs throw in a whole lot. And we are going to be perfectly content to, for instance, beat Missouri like 19 to 8 and be very OK with that. We're going to infamously get in trouble for going conservative against Oklahoma and Florida and be tagged that way for the rest of our crew and being down. What? Are 2043 and not getting aggressive until you had to. So I think I think that was the big question of that offseason going into 16 when everyone was so excited about us as would. Are you going to let him throw? Can you? Can you win this whole thing? Can he win the SCC? Can you win a national championship? Being risk management on the offense. Side of things.

Joel:
So September 2016 was the best month of Tennessee football in the last decade.

Will:
So you're Gators of my life? Yeah.

Joel:
It

Will:
It's.

Joel:
Was awesome. We had the Battle of Bristol.

Will:
Yep. Yep.

Joel:
We beat Florida. We beat Georgia. It doesn't get any better than that. We should have just quit right then. We should have retired, just retire the program. Are you still there?

Will:
I have I hung up because the podcast was not gonna get any better either. No. Yeah. I mean, that that's there's a whole alternate universe there. There are a number of alternate universes with Butch Jones where if one or two things goes differently, then his tenure looks a lot different. But yeah, and he's winning. You know, I think we have to give. We have to note the Appalachian State game in there, because in the moment that that hung around through Bristol, a game as we talked about last week, where Virginia Tech put it on the ground six times or Tennessee did what you do when a team does that six times. But then the Florida game, you know, and then the end of the Georgia game changed all that narrative and even Texas saying em to almost beat a team when you turn it over with six or seven times. You know, there was still that that sense. And I thought even Alabama, so many guys got hurt in that Texas 8 em game. Even the Bama and I was at that Bama game getting beat the way we did. To me, it was still easy to say, OK, number one. I picked Tennessee at that game, but I thought that a lot of those guys that got hurt would come back and play. Danny O'BRIEN and like Cortez McDowell and some other guys that did not. And so you just get hammered, but you think, all right, we got the bye week. We're gonna win the east, all that all that stuff. And we'll get another shot at these guys. And maybe the second time around we can do something different. And then South Carolina and yet all that.

Joel:
Ok. So 2016, though, the beginning of the season, Butch was in his what, third year?

Will:
Healthcare.

Joel:
Fourth year? Shoop was in his second, right?

Will:
It was first year.

Joel:
Oh, that was the first year for Shoop. Oh, OK. And then the offensive coordinator was who in 16,

Will:
Debord still.

Joel:
Second year, third year,

Will:
Second year for Debord.

Joel:
Second year for the board. OK, so some continuity. Except on defense. OK, so then 20, 17, Shoop was still there. Right. But we went to Larry Scott on

Will:
Right,

Joel:
Offense.

Will:
Because the board the board retired

Joel:
Right.

Will:
And that

Joel:
And

Will:
Wanted

Joel:
Then when.

Will:
To spend more time with his family, is it Indiana, right.

Joel:
Yeah,

Will:
So,

Joel:
Yeah.

Will:
Yeah.

Joel:
Okay, so we lost some continuity on offense there in 2017, but it really fell apart before then anyway. Interesting. Okay, so then Pruitt comes on board. Brand new coaching staff. And then his second year, he changed both of his coordinators.

Will:
Correct. Though the previous defensive coordinator is I mean, those guys. Share is still on the staff. It's just not the defensive coordinator anymore.

Joel:
Yeah, I wonder how much has changed there, though. I think the plan was to change more than maybe he has. It seems like he's sort of back to calling plays. I don't know. Okay. Well, I'll see what I can make of all that stuff. But even if it's not like a direct correlation, that's a lot of discontinuity among the coordinator positions over the course of how many ever years it is. And that's to be part of the problem. So.

Will:
Yeah. I mean, it was, as you noted at the start of all that, it was the original problem. And to me still to this day, I mean, Dave Clawson is is what Dave Clawson is most responsible for, Philip Fulmer getting fired.

Joel:
Yeah.

Will:
And and since then, you've only had two years. Year wanted to for duly. And you're one and two for Butch Jones, where you had the same offensive and defensive coordinators for four to your stretches. So,

Joel:
Okay.

Will:
Yeah, it's problematic.

Joel:
All right. So this may be hard for you to admit or concede. But would it be accurate to say that most of these guys have actually had success elsewhere when they've had time?

Will:
Some of other coordinators

Joel:
Yeah.

Will:
I get now.

Joel:
Yeah. Start with class and I know it's a hard one for you.

Will:
Well, I mean, Clawson, that's his whole thing, right? Is that

Joel:
Yeah,

Will:
It takes time. I mean, that's

Joel:
Right.

Will:
That's the joke for four forever. So. And let me say, to be fair, people, I have gotten more e-mails about negative things I've said about Dave Clawson than just about anyone. Every anything I've said about anyone else, I think he deserved his his 2008 at Tennessee deserves to be called for what it is. But that dude is winning some games at Wake Forest, which is one of the hardest places to win, I think in power five. So,

Joel:
And he's dealing

Will:
Yeah.

Joel:
With offense. I mean, he's put up some points.

Will:
Yeah. His.

Joel:
Yeah.

Will:
His whole thing and set it on the front end, is it? This system is gonna take time to install. That's what happened at Bowling Green and that's what happened. You know, his first weight team is one of the worst offenses in the history of college football. But if you look at it, there's a side Bill Connelly tweeted this out where there's a sign that's taken as SB Plus data and grafted over time, not just the overall rankings, but the offense. If you take it, I'll tweet this out. If you take a look at that, at Tennessee's offense over the last 50 years. You can spot the clock fence on that on that line graph from a mile away. I mean, it is the worst offense in Tennessee in the last 50 years by miles and miles and miles.

Joel:
Right.

Will:
But yes.

Joel:
But but but

Will:
To

Joel:
The

Will:
Save

Joel:
But

Will:
Time.

Joel:
The.

Will:
Yes.

Joel:
Right. But the point is that it was it's terrible in the first year, but gets better.

Will:
Yes.

Joel:
Ok,

Will:
Yep.

Joel:
So.

Will:
Change. Same thing. More so, I mean, we wrote this in the magazine in the offseason. Obviously, he's been fine in his first year. Other places and then got much better in year two. That sort of stuff. Shoop has been great everywhere else. He's been

Joel:
Right.

Will:
Money

Joel:
What about.

Will:
Gift. Same. Same thing. I mean, distribute the USC for the same reason everybody struggle because they had all those sanctions and that sort of thing.

Joel:
Mike Debord.

Will:
Well, Debord, listen. Some of that goes back to Butch Jones. Regardless of what you think about the offense in 2015, in November of 16, Tinsley had the best offense in college football. Statistically, the best offense in college football because their D was banged up and Shoop wasn't a good fit. And you know, we're winning those games against Missouri and Kentucky, scoring fifty and sixty three points. So when when they wanted to, Jalen Hird was often seen by that point. So maybe that had some to do with it, too. But yeah, I mean, the board Debord and Josh Dobbs were running the best offense in college football. That that, you know, if Tennessee doesn't blow the South Carolina game, Dobbs is a Darkhorse Heisman candidate for what he's doing there in November. So that worked at Tennessee, not just other places. And before that, Debord was an old school 90's. You know, Michigan offensive guy that won a national championship there that certainly worked for him to.

Joel:
Ok, so would it have been better if these guys would have been around longer?

Will:
I think. Well, I think it is we're talking about in the present. I think you make the Tyson Hilton for Jim Chaney trade every

Joel:
Right.

Will:
Time,

Joel:
You know.

Will:
Not just whatever you feel about Helton. That mean he's a head coach now, you know. And that's not that's not a factor you have to worry about with Cheney. So I think you make that particular trade. Anytime. Justin Wilcox is a head coach now, the only undefeated team left in the PAC 12. The Cal Bears. So, yeah, I think for all of those guys, with the exception of Sal Sunseri.

Joel:
Yeah. Where is he? What's he doing? He is on. He is doing a remake of The Flintstones.

Will:
I do not care to know whatever it is. I do not wish to know and I and Larry Scott, you know, interim coach at Miami. I wonder how much of that ship was already sinking at the start of 2017 with Butch Jones. It's a miracle Tennessee beat Georgia Tech and that first game, statistically not much chance to win that game and Tennessee wanted anyway. So I'm not sure about him. We need to see a larger sample size and a better situation. But overall, I mean, yeah, you can argue. Look at Tennessee again. I don't know the full circumstances around John. Jan SEC not being Tennessee's defensive coordinator anymore. But hey, you. If you had Jan's again, 16, do you give up all those points and yards? Texas, ain't em? I'm not sure that you do. So, yeah, I think continuity when it is available is is a benefit. And I would be curious to compare what I'd like to do with that list as compared to other programs, not Alabama, but other programs in the SCC. And see what kind of coordinator play caller turnover has there been in the last decade. Other places too.

Joel:
Yeah. So my hypothesis is that we just need some continuity for the next two to three years. Even if it gets bad and feels bad for a couple of years, I don't know whether that is going to sport that. It seems like it will, though. So anyway, that's that's sort of where I'm headed, unless the data just says I can't go there.

Will:
Well,

Joel:
But.

Will:
I mean, that's the if you're looking for what's the best argument for Jeremy Pruitt? I mean. That's kind of it. Right.

Joel:
Yeah, but it's

Will:
And

Joel:
Not.

Will:
I think that argument.

Joel:
Yeah, except that all the focus is always on the head coach. Getting rid of the head coach, you know, and and we don't. As we've said, I think every episode of the past five episodes, coordinator continuity is probably more important that we really give it credit for. All right. So we've we've already talked about Jonathan Crompton. And I was hoping maybe you could fill in some gaps there. But before we get to that, I just wanted to say I'm super impressed by your memory of all those facts and details. I don't remember any of them until after you say them. So I'm afraid to say the word donuts, because every time I do. But I will say that I don't think I can remember anything because of all the donuts and headache medicine I've had. And the thing is actually still recording, so donuts must still be a safe word. So anyway, good job remembering all that stuff.

Will:
Thank

Joel:
Super

Will:
You. I

Joel:
Impressed.

Will:
Feel like maybe next week, during the by week, we can do like a tour of happier days. And remember, like things that were better and more exciting because that's you know, I remember all that stuff too. But, you

Joel:
It's

Will:
Know, this is this is

Joel:
Why you

Will:
What's

Joel:
Keep

Will:
New.

Joel:
Coming back.

Will:
Yeah.

Joel:
All right. So back into the archives in the memory banks there. Well, like I said, we've already talked about Crompton, but fill in my gaps there. I'm hoping you can make us feel better on the on the quarterback thing. You fill in the gaps and Crompton and then also talk about Peterman a little bit, if you would.

Will:
So, Crumpton, one thing that is important to remember about Crumpton and this is going a little further back. But, you know, important to remember in 0 6, Tennessee is in the top 10 in the first week in November, which is, you know, that that is a benchmark really for this program of really being in the national conversation. LSU, Jamarcus Russell and Knoxville Ainge has a sprained ankle starts, but he goes like one of six. He can't play. He's not a hundred percent. So they put him Crumpton and they run. Basically the let's throw it up to Robert Meacham and see what happens on offense. And it almost works. Tennessee almost wins that game. They do win that game with instant replay exists in 2006 because Russell fumbled on the last drive. But anyway, that was the first look at Crompton. Was he almost beat LSU in an iconic S.E.C. November football game? Then they go to Arkansas, get waxed the next week, but then Ainge takes every meaningful snap in 2007. And I think from a fan perspective, the infamous fourth quarter against LSU in the 2007 SCC championship game makes people a little more fond of the idea of Crompton than they should have been. Ames comes back with statistically one of the best games in his career, by the way, against Wisconsin in the Outback Bowl. Always. That's worth pointing out to me anyway. We had these this short glimpse of Crumpton that was so exciting than what he almost did, which is really basically I'm a throw it up to Robert Meacham and let him do it. That I think that fueled a lot of what it could have been in 2008. And then what you got in 0 8 right away is 19 of 41 against UCLA and a crushing loss that had a lot to do with with bad play calling and then didn't get any better. I mean, that offense in 0 8, it can't move the ball. It can't get one first down to kick a field goal to beat Auburn in 2008, a couple of weeks later in a game and lose, you know, 14 to twelve. That

Joel:
This is

Will:
Really?

Joel:
The pants offense.

Will:
It really hurt former that game, you know, not just losing, but losing in a way that's no fun. And then they Benji and they go to Nick Stevens. Stevens is OK at Georgia, but you still lose by twelve. I think that everybody gets crushed by Alabama, which again, remember, that's Alabama's first up year with Save and that's year two with Saban. So it's the first time you're getting beat by a superior Alabama team since that man. I don't know, since since the nineteen the early 1990s. So they play Nick Stevens. They played B.J. Coleman. He of the firm handshake

Joel:
Yes.

Will:
Gets them snaps late in the year.

Joel:
I do remember that.

Will:
And I think we spent all offseason. This is I. You and I have started working together, I've came to rocket stop talk right after Kiffin was hired and we spent all that offseason assuming that Jonathan Crompton could not be the answer that there was so bad, there had to be somebody else, Stevens had to be better. And it turns out that he wasn't. And one thing about Kiffin, I said this on sports when 80 last Friday with Josh and Heather, those calls for Stevens came back that UCLA game in Knoxville, content was bad in a game where decent. It's like not exactly like BYU, but decent wins that game easily. But he was bad. And Tennessee lost like 19 to 15. And then they took the air out of the ball against the Gators. And I remember writing around that time when they lost to Auburn that like, look, Kiffin is not gonna change is my he's riding with this guy and this guy is gonna turn it over about one and a half times a game. And that's just who he is. And we should just accept that at this point we've seen enough data. This is who he is. All that stuff. And then all of a sudden. Still still to this day, one of the most surprising things that has ever happened at Newlands Stadium, that Georgia game in 0 9, where all of a sudden he's just an NFL quarterback and Cheney and Kiffin gave him only one side of the field to deal with and all that good stuff.

Will:
But he does that. Then he almost beat Alabama, the very next game out in Tuscaloosa. And then, you know, they ride the black jerseys and they're right. A lot of Montreal Hardesty, too. But they're right. The black jerseys to a dominant win over ranked South Carolina team and they just roll it from there. And so, yeah, I mean, that one image of him in that Georgia game was just completely out of nowhere. But he played himself into the NFL draft in six weeks, basically. And so, yeah, I that's that's what you're hoping for. Peterman No quarterback has ever looked worse at Tennessee than Nathan Peterman ever. So anyone throwing it out about Jarrett Guarantano is either like only seven years old or just like Peterman was the worst. And bless his heart, I said it at the time. Man, I hope something good happens to that kid. But it ain't happening at Tennessee. But it happened in Pittsburgh. It was with Cheney for the first year at Pitt. And then he really did well the next year at Pitt when Cheney had gone to Georgia. But Peterman was still a Pittsburgh. I mean, that dude has played an eight NFL games, eight no quarterback at Tennessee has played other than Peyton Manning and Heath Shuler.

Will:
I don't know how far you've got to go back to find a Tennessee quarterback that appeared in eight regular season NFL games. It is a banana's statistic. So, yes, it can always be done. Crumpton We had longer and more data to believe it wouldn't work than we have with gear. And Tanto Peterman looks worse than any. I mean, I don't know what you would you would have to basically commit mutiny and start playing for the other team to be worse than Peter was at Tennessee. And that dude has played in more, more NFL games regular season than Bray and Clawson and Ainge and Dobbs at this point and all those guys. So who knows? So, yeah, is it possible? Always. We've seen it twice in the last 12 years here. Last 10 years. But. I don't know. I'm hopeful, but it seems like Garen Tanto is getting worse, whereas Peterman was always Peterman was always that way. And Crompton at least had the initial flash. Fair or unfair, aided by a great wide receiver or not. And he wasn't as bad the first six weeks of 2009 as he was in the closets during tennis. Seems like he's getting worse and like big worse with the mental mistakes and that sort of stuff. So I don't I don't know if that is a helpful comparison or not.

Joel:
I am going to assume that it is, because that's what I want to assume.

Will:
Sure.

Joel:
Yeah, I'm gonna water the bamboo is what I'm gonna do.

Will:
Just get it all out there. Let's get all the all the old guys, all the metaphors out there.

Joel:
Yes. Just keep watering the bamboo and eventually it will sprout and will have guaranteed snow in the NFL in six weeks as well. That's that's the plan. Before we wrap up, have you seen this stupid thing from Yahoo! About former.

Will:
Yeah,

Joel:
That

Will:
I

Joel:
That's just

Will:
Hate.

Joel:
Nonsense, isn't it?

Will:
Yeah, I don't. Well, I'm not listening to Pete family about what's actually happening in Tennessee over anybody. One of my least favorite things again is people that have run a fan centric Tennessee Web site for more than a decade. Families get a line in there that's like many fans are now apathetic about whatever. Like he's an actual journalist. We are fans with a keyboard. He's credentialed media. Which fans? How many? How do you know where? Where's it coming from? We just put 80000 thousand people in the stands for Chattanooga. Who are these people that are actually actively calling for Pruitt's job right at this second that have any kind of representation to constitute many? So, yeah, I mean, I took it as that dude has got some issues with Tennessee from from the past. And I would not he would not be at the top of my list of trustworthy folks to have their finger on the pulse of what's happening at Tennessee. And sometimes we say that when the news is things that we don't want. I'm sure there is a percentage of the fanbase that would love for Phillip Fulmer to, you know, take the field against Georgia here in a couple of weeks. But I don't I just do not look at that as there's no reason to believe that that is an accurate understanding what's happening. Andy Staples, who at the athletic, who I feel like is much more connected to what's actually happening in Tennessee, is the one who wrote the piece on good have to be patient right now. And like for a while and let it be bad and let it be Pruitt and let it be bad. And that's the only way out of this mess. That to me is a much, much, much more realistic take on what's happening at Tennessee right now.

Joel:
So I didn't become a fan until I got on campus for law school in 96. So I did not live through the whole changeover from majors to former, but with that perspective, it seems terribly unfair to me to say that Fulmer has a reputation of being a backstabber. I know the story, but you lived through it. You side. Is there any it is that a fair characterization of what happened?

Will:
Well, listen, I get it. You know, the caveat, all this is I was 11 years old, so I can't give you I can tell you what happened in the Games, but I can't give you the full like behind the scenes stuff other than to say the timing was incredibly unfair for Johnny Majors, who won the S.E.C. in 85, 89 and 90 and then in 91 had the miracle at South Bend. And just the the timing of his heart surgery, former coming in and to his absolute credit, beating Georgia at Georgia and then stomping Florida 31 to 14 and at rainstorm made majors come back quickly and end the games they lost. They they lost is a huge favorite against Arkansas when they were ranked third in a country, which is the. Right behind the he Georgia state, Wyoming Memphis list of the worst losses since a separate is a favorite, that Arkansas game is fourth on that list. So a crushing loss there. By one point in the next week, they lost to Alabama 17 to 10. Alabama won the national championship that year. They lost by a touchdown to the national champions. And then they went to South Carolina and scored and went for two because they weren't playing for the tie. They were playing for the win and they didn't get it. And they lost by one. But some of it was that was the first year Arkansas and South Carolina were in the SCC. And there were teams that you expect to beat much the way we thought we'd be beating Missouri around all the time right now.

Will:
And that hasn't been happening. And so you're at a point where summer was the hottest commodity. Here's where I'm getting into guesswork and fuzzy memory because I was only 11. But former was obviously a hot commodity. Former wanted the job, obviously. And as many rumors as you will find about former backstabbing, you'll find just as many unsavory things about Johnny Majors at that time and his behavior at some just his relationships with people and his behavior that might have turned a little bit during that process. So I think there's there is plenty of blame to go around. Super unfair timing wise for four majors. But the thing about former is when that happens, Tennessee the next year, you know, doesn't lose to Alabama. They tie Alabama. They lose that Florida by a touchdown. Shuler comes in second in the Heisman. And they you know, Peyton Manning is a freshman the next year after that. So there was no point in there where nothing happened with former where you said we never should have fired majors. I mean, it just didn't happen. Former can beat Florida. Majors can beat Alabama. So, yeah, I mean, there was never any there was never a reason to go back and say we shouldn't have done the thing that we did, cemented by former winning the whole thing in 1998.

Joel:
Yeah, it just seems to me that, you know, football is a next man up kind of game. You know, when a guy gets hurt. Prayers for that guy. Hope that he does well. But the guy that comes in behind him and fills in for him, he's got to do what he can do. And if he has success, then that's good for the program. And you have to shake it all out later on. I just seems like it was the next man up thing for me. But anyway, freestyle. No question. Just anything you want to talk about. Anything that I missed. Anything you want to say?

Will:
Most important thing I'm saying is a lot riding and a lot right now. But there is a different in all this history. We've gone back and talked about the least fun times, I think, to be a fan and to be a writer about this stuff. The least fun times have been for me the middle of that 2011 season when Bray was hurt. And you're getting beat by thirty one against LSU, 31 against Alabama. Forty two against Arkansas. Think you just knew? I mean, these teams are gonna take a big beating and then at the end of Bush's time in 17. Same thing. I mean, these these teams are just going to take a beating. It is important even losing, as we talked about at the start of this, by 30 ones in the Gators. I appreciate the frustration. I appreciate the idea that they could have done better and I could have played better. I'm willing to set aside whatever happens against Georgia. I say that now and I'm sure something really ridiculous will happen. But I'm willing to say whatever that is aside, man, it is important. It is important for them to compete with Mississippi State, important it and Mississippi State.

Will:
And as people us right now is like a 14 point. David was fine. Like 14. Fine. We need the ability. Investment is the thing now. Pruitt needs it from his team. Pruitt has to have it from high school seniors and juniors right now. And Tennessee football needs needs it from its fans. But fans. I need to be able to turn the television on, not against Georgia and Alabama. That's true. Before last week. But in all the other games, I need to turn the TV on and believe that Tennessee has an opportunity to win the game. So regardless, I mean, from two weeks away, regardless of what happens against Georgia, it is very important to compete against Mississippi State, because if you can't compete against those guys at home. Who? I mean, it's it's almost like we're not going to know what to talk about other than firing it. Which I don't think is going to happen this year anyway. So it's just kind of a fatalistic thing of apathy is the only option left. So. Yep, that's right. Maybe you should not let me freestyle identities because it's not it's not uplifting, but that's that's what I think.

Joel:
All right. No game this week, so no podcast. At the end of the week, also, we'll be living real life. Will's gonna be touring airports.

Will:
Rex.

Joel:
I'll be watching a little house. You know, PA will be losing crops, I'm sure, but we'll be back next week. We're gonna snap and clear. There's another metaphor for you.

Will:
At Man.

Joel:
Yeah, we're gonna get our minds right heading into the Georgia

Will:
That made me

Joel:
Game.

Will:
Feel so much worse. Like just saying that I feel worse now. Oh, no.

Joel:
I want to roll out the orange dog next week.

Will:
Yes. Well, that's at least supposed to make me feel better. I love Dooley for that. The best I have said is in the podcasts like a dozen times. I know, but I still from that time 2011 season. I hear it in my head talking about sick of answering questions about Harper Bray going. He's got a broken thumb. Stop asking me about whether he can grip the football. He's got a broken arm. I just think about that sometimes. Like that's that's kind of where Tennessee is right now. He's got a broken club

Joel:
Got

Will:
Stub

Joel:
A broken thumb.

Will:
Asking his questions. You know, we can't even grip the football right now. So just just

Joel:
But if

Will:
Let it go.

Joel:
He's got really good shower etiquette now.

Will:
Yeah, and the orange pants. Maybe they'll make an appearance, so give us something better to talk about.

Joel:
Yeah. All right. So we'll have all the regular stuff up, including through the bye week. I appreciate everybody listening. If you can,

Will:
Yes.

Joel:
Please give us a rating. Give us a review. Bonus points, if you include the secret phrase, what's what's what's another. Butch Jones.

Will:
I mean, what do you want, champions

Joel:
I

Will:
Of life? Five star hards, 63

Joel:
63

Will:
Efforts. Any of any.

Joel:
Efforts. All right, I'm not going with any of that because that just

Will:
That

Joel:
All

Will:
Way.

Joel:
Made me sick to my stomach. So, yeah.

Will:
You feel unsafe now.

Joel:
All right. The secret phrase is died with a toothache in his heel from old Dan Tucker. All right. So for a Will Shelton Joel Hollingsworth, this has been the Gameday on Rocky Top podcast.

Will:
I don't know that reference, by the way. It's a little house on the Prairie.

Joel:
It is. It's Mr. Edwards always sings old Dan Tucker or Dan Tucker was a final man, a washed is face in a frying pan, combed his hair with a wagon wheel, died with a toothache. It is here. Yeah. So, yeah, if you if you don't know a little house, you're gonna want a little house, man.

Will:
I

Joel:
But.

Will:
Know the gist, but I have not, you know, ever sat down and watched it with intent or purpose.

Joel:
See, I joke that that's really how I received all of my moral instruction in my childhood. It's actually Drew. There's there's a lot of good stuff in there.

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How do you structure this team for the long-term?

2019 has become about 2020; really, it’s about 2021 and beyond. If the Vols somehow find a way to get to six wins this season, we’ll rightfully celebrate it. But Tennessee’s win expectancy hovered around 4.2 on our site before the Gators won 34-3. With Georgia and Alabama still to come, Tennessee is looking at a scenario where it needs to go 5-1 against Mississippi State, South Carolina, UAB, Kentucky, Missouri, and Vanderbilt. I think the Vols can win games in that stretch to extend the conversation. But five-of-six asks for a consistency that seems beyond what this team has shown itself capable of.

There’s a mental concern too: how long will this team keep fighting at 1-3 when it seemed to fold after Guarantano got knocked out of the Missouri game last year at 5-5? Wes Rucker advocates holding out on a full-on youth movement until after the Alabama game, while playing upperclassmen with NFL futures to help their stock. Something like that could still represent progress in the back half of the season when the schedule does lighten just a bit, but you’ll still need some kind of investment from both upper-and-underclassmen for progress to show up.

As others have pointed out (including the most well-rounded take I’ve seen from Andy Staples at The Athletic), it’s a fairly simple equation for Pruitt and Tennessee in the big picture. It’s in no one’s best interests for the Vols to move on from him this season. From a competitiveness standpoint, the Vols are at the lowest point of my lifetime; we said even after BYU it’s best to measure progress from the bottom instead of to the top. It’s funny: I thought that might be a little more freeing when watching Tennessee against Florida, but so many of the mistakes still bring the same feelings of frustration.

Pushing the reset button right now just adds time to the clock. The Vols need to compete well enough, with some wins thrown in, for Pruitt to continue to recruit at a reasonable level. I’m not worried about Tennessee’s national ranking of 22 in recruiting for 2020 right now; the Vols are still at the blue chip ratio target of 50% in that class, which would make two years in a row. But with only 14 commits at the moment, will they be able to stay there or close to it as we approach the signing period? One thing slowing the process right now is the makeup of Butch Jones’ final recruiting class, when the Vols couldn’t parlay any momentum left from consecutive 9-4 ranked finishes into anything better than five blue chip players in a class of 27 in 2017.

Even before Georgia State, we thought it was true the guys who would ultimately decide Pruitt’s fate weren’t the upperclassmen on this roster. That was especially true at quarterback. Fans are going to be quick to anoint Harrison Bailey, and we’ll see. But you can at least create reasonable competition if you play Brian Maurer, whether now or after Alabama. Guarantano does have a year left, but might also find a graduate transfer situation appealing after all he’s been through.

It will always be worth pointing out that Jim Chaney has been part of the two biggest QB reclamation projects I’ve ever seen involving Tennessee players. Jonathan Crompton was 61-of-122 (50%) for 667 yards (5.5 ypa) with four touchdowns and six interceptions against UCLA, Florida, Ohio, and Auburn in 2009. And then he played himself into the NFL Draft in the second half of the season. Any conversation about Guarantano’s performance being the worst we’ve ever seen has clearly forgotten Nathan Peterman in the same venue six years earlier; Chaney was with him the first of two years at Pitt, which led to eight NFL appearances.

The difference with Guarantano is he appears to be getting worse. And with Georgia and Alabama on the horizon, the windows for improvement are shrinking.

We’re also aware a youth movement is already underway in several spots. Guys who will ultimately be involved in the big picture conversation about Pruitt – Eric Gray, multiple offensive linemen, Henry To’o To’o, most of the secondary – are already in the mix. Unfortunately, there aren’t many of those options on the defensive line, where the Vols simply are who they are: a group replacing every starter and without Emmitt Gooden that cannot generate any pressure against an SEC offensive line by themselves. The youth movement there is in high school: BJ Ojulari and Dominic Bailey join Harrison Bailey and safety Keshawn Lawrence as Tennessee’s highest-rated commits.

But you also can’t roll into 2020 expecting to make decisions about Pruitt based on what freshmen defensive linemen do in the SEC. This whole thing is going to last longer than anyone wanted to get figured out.

If Pruitt continues to recruit reasonably well, you at least let him put more talent on the roster and really see if he can grow into this job. He stays long enough to decrease the buyout and do the thing Kiffin, Dooley, and Butch Jones failed to do: leave the program in better shape than they found it.

There’s also a long-term scheduling note here, one that hasn’t paid off for Tennessee this season but might in the future. The Vols are going to be massive underdogs when they go to Oklahoma next September. But after that, there’s a relative dip in Tennessee’s schedule over the next few years. All those jokes about Tennessee and Arkansas needing to play each other for morale will come true next season when the Vols go to Fayetteville. In 2021, it’s Ole Miss in Knoxville. And the Vols will go home-and-home with Pittsburgh in 2021 and 2022, followed by the return match with BYU in Provo in 2023. There are no guarantees, but at least Pruitt isn’t facing the same scheduling gauntlet Butch Jones saw (Oregon, Oklahoma, Oklahoma, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech in the non-conference; Auburn, Ole Miss, Arkansas, Texas A&M, LSU from the SEC West).

The one assumption for this season was progress. That’s still important, it just looks a lot different. The real goal now is maintaining investment: with players, with recruits, and with fans week-to-week. Can the Vols compete enough to make us believe they have a chance to win when we turn on the TV against everyone other than Georgia and Alabama? The Vols clearly weren’t beating the Gators, but going forward you’d like to see less of four turnovers and four personal fouls and more winning and losing honestly. It’s the best way to continue to make an honest assessment of Jeremy Pruitt, and the reality of where this program is right now.

The GRT Expected Win Total Machine: Post-Florida

Use the form below to calculate your expected win total for the rest of the season.

The GRT Expected Win Total Machine


My assessment

Even a day later, I’m still feeling like the Vols really weren’t even competitive against the Gators and that the evidence is insufficient at this time to support a belief that it’s going to get better any time soon. Ugh.

Meanwhile, Mississippi State and Missouri are looking better and better, while the other remaining opponents all look good enough to lose to. Bleck.

With this week’s adjustments, I now have an expected win total of . . . 2.9, which actually feels a bit high. I guess all of those 20 and 30 percents add up to a win I’m not exactly expecting. Hurl.

  • Preseason: 6.55
  • After Week 0: 6.6
  • After Week 1: 2.87
  • After Week 2: 2.37
  • After Week 3: 3.65
  • After Week 4: 2.9

Details: I have Alabama and Georgia both at 5%, Mississippi State and Missouri at 20%, South Carolina, Kentucky, and Vanderbilt at 30%, and UAB as a tossup. Ugh.

Here’s a table with my expectations this week:

Tennessee Volunteers currently

Current record: 1-3 (0-1), 4th in the SEC East

The Vols’ past opponents

Georgia State Panthers

Current record: 2-2 (0-1), 5th in the Sun Belt East

BYU Cougars

Current record: 2-2 (0-0)

Chattanooga Mocs

Current record: 1-3 (0-0), 4th in the Southern Conference

Florida Gators

Current record: 4-0 (2-0), 1st in the SEC East

The Vols’ future opponents

Georgia Bulldogs

Current record: 4-0 (1-0), 2nd in the SEC East

Tough game against Notre Dame, but these guys pulled it out and looked good doing it against the Fighting Irish. They’re going to be a real problem for the Vols.

Mississippi State Bulldogs

Current record: 3-1 (1-0), 1st in the SEC West

The Bulldogs looked good against Kentucky and made that loss to Kansas State look like a fluke. Kylin Hill is currently the SEC’s leading rusher. Ugh, this game’s looking tougher, even before you account for the Vols’ problems.

Alabama Crimson Tide

Current record: 4-0 (1-0), 1st in the SEC West

Machines.

South Carolina Gamecocks

Current record: 1-3 (0-2), 5th in the SEC East

Looked good against Alabama, but not so good against Missouri this week.

UAB Blazers

Current record: 3-0 (0-0), 3rd in C-USA West

Nobody schedule, but 3-0.

Kentucky Wildcats

Current record: 2-2 (0-2), 5th in the SEC East

Missouri Tigers

Current record: 3-1 (1-0), 2nd in the SEC East

Season-opening loss to Wyoming looking more and more like an anomaly.

Vanderbilt Commodores

Current record: 0-3 (0-2), 5th in the SEC East

Not looking good, but playing two Top 5 teams to begin the season will do that.

What about you? Where are your expectations for the Vols now?

Vols lose 34-3 to the Gators: What now?

My eight-year-old and I have been bingeing our way through Little House on the Prairie for the past couple of months. I once joked to one of my college professors that that show was primarily responsible for my moral upbringing. I was kidding, but it was also kind of true, and so now I’m indoctrinating my most impressionable children.

Yes, you can predict almost everything about every episode. Carrie’s always going to fall down, Nellie’s always going to be nasty, and Mr. Edwards is always going to sing Old Dan Tucker.

And Pa is always going to lose his crop and press on anyway. We’re only three seasons in, and if memory serves, Charles has lost three crops already. The last one even caused him to sell his farm so he could move away from the present adversity in Walnut Grove back home where all of the troubled memories have been filtered out by time. Fortunately, the buyers just so happened to be the same people who’d made the mistake of selling the exact same place years ago and ended up backing out of the sale because they didn’t want the Ingalls to make the same mistake. Of course. Also, Charles finally realized that Walnut Grove was where all of his friends were. So he stayed, and he planted another crop, got back to work, and prayed another prayer for harvest.

Meanwhile, of course, Mary got sick and almost died, Carrie fell down a well and almost died, and Pa and the fine folks of Walnut Grove nearly went both dead and bankrupt trying to save and love everybody. It’s a hard life in the little house, but everybody always laughs and smiles and cries at the end.

I don’t know when we Vols fans are going to finally laugh and smile and cry tears of joy because we don’t have the foggiest idea when this episode is going to end. There is no playhead, no time-scrubber, no Kindle progress indicator. We can’t know how long this chapter is or how close to the end we are.

I do know that the crop just burned up again and memories of home are calling.

The Vols went to Gainesville Saturday hoping that some of the feel-goods from the Chattanooga game would translate into something competitive against the Gators. Tennessee was a 14-point underdog and had shown enough chinks in the armor in losses to Georgia State and BYU to relieve anyone of the burden of expecting to win in The Swamp, but one expectation was still alive and well heading into Week 4: Be competitive and show some improvement.

Hail. Fire. Drought. The crop’s gone. Again.

These Vols are not getting better. They lost 34-3 to the Gators. They had 12 first downs to Florida’s 25. Their fourth-year quarterback — who’s started most of his 24 games — passed for 107 yards and zero touchdowns with two interceptions before getting benched while the Gators rolled out a guy who’d never started before and who threw for 293 yards with two touchdowns anyway.

Tennessee made plenty of mistakes, but this one cannot be pinned on The Weirdness. This wasn’t 2018, where Tennessee was -5 in turnovers; they were only -1 yesterday and got beat even worse. I said on our podcast last week that I wanted to see last year’s game without the turnovers. Turns out, I didn’t want to see it.

So now, add to an embarrassing loss at home to a non-Power 5 team that was 2-10 last year and an overtime heartbreaker to BYU the loss of the hope that we can at least be competitive against our rivals this year.

That crop is gone. There will be no harvest of hope this year. All that’s left is figuring out how to get through the rest of this season and planning and preparing for the next. There can still be some happy moments this season, certainly, but those moments will have to come via secondary storylines.

There’s a happy ending in here somewhere. Alas, it’s probably not this season and there’s likely more adversity ahead. But eventually, everything will come together, Nellie will get her due, and we will have our harvest.

Your Gameday Gameplan: Tennessee-Florida

It’s Gameday on Rocky Top, via Gainesville, with the Vols hoping to pull off the upset against the dreaded Florida Gators. Here’s the Gameday Gameplan for Tennessee fans. Where and when to find the Vols game on TV, what other games to watch as well, and what to listen to and read as you wait for kickoff.

When is the Vols game, and what TV channel is it on?

Here are the particulars for today’s Tennessee game:

The best games for Vols fans to watch today

Here’s our list of games to watch today, curated just for Vols fans:

Away Home Time TV How Why
NOON
Texas Tech Oklahoma 12:00 PM FOX Channel Hop Why not?
Texas A&M Arkansas 12:00 PM ESPN Channel Hop Former coaching candidate
Northern Illinois Vanderbilt 12:00 PM SECN Channel Hop Future Vols opponent
AFTERNOON
Clemson North Carolina 3:30 PM ABC Channel Hop Closer than expected?
Ole Miss Alabama 3:30 PM CBS Channel Hop Future Vols opponent
Virginia Notre Dame 3:30 PM NBC Channel Hop Top 20 matchup
Towson Florida 4:00 PM SECN Channel Hop Former Vols opponent
USC Washington 3:30 PM FOX Channel Hop Top 20 matchup
EVENING
Mississippi State Auburn 7:00 PM ESPN Channel Hop/DVR Future Vols opponent
Kentucky South Carolina 7:30 PM SECN Channel Hop/DVR Future Vols opponents

And here’s a searchable version of this week’s entire college football TV schedule:

Date Away Home Time TV
9/19/19 Houston Tulane 8:00 PM ESPN
9/20/19 Florida International Louisiana Tech 8:00 PM CBSSN
9/20/19 Utah USC 9:00 PM FS1
9/20/19 Air Force Boise State 9:00 PM ESPN2
9/21/19 Southern Mississippi Alabama 12:00 PM ESPN2
9/21/19 LSU Vanderbilt 12:00 PM SECN
9/21/19 Tennessee Florida 12:00 PM ESPN
9/21/19 Michigan Wisconsin 12:00 PM FOX
9/21/19 California Ole Miss 12:00 PM ESPNU
9/21/19 Western Michigan Syracuse 12:00 PM ACCN
9/21/19 Elon Wake Forest 12:00 PM ACCNX
9/21/19 Boston College Rutgers 12:00 PM BTN
9/21/19 UL Monroe Iowa State 12:00 PM FS1
9/21/19 UConn Indiana 12:00 PM BTN
9/21/19 Michigan State Northwestern 12:00 PM ABC
9/21/19 Morgan State Army 12:00 PM CBSSN
9/21/19 Coastal Carolina UMass 1:00 PM
9/21/19 Louisiana Ohio 2:00 PM ESPN+
9/21/19 Troy Akron 3:00 PM ESPN+
9/21/19 Central Connecticut Eastern Michigan 3:00 PM ESPN3
9/21/19 Miami (OH) Ohio State 3:30 PM BTN
9/21/19 Auburn Texas A&M 3:30 PM CBS
9/21/19 UCF Pittsburgh 3:30 PM ABC
9/21/19 Washington BYU 3:30 PM ABC
9/21/19 SMU TCU 3:30 PM FS1
9/21/19 Temple Buffalo 3:30 PM ESPNU
9/21/19 Bowling Green Kent State 3:30 PM ESPN3
9/21/19 Wyoming Tulsa 3:30 PM CBSSN
9/21/19 South Alabama UAB 3:30 PM NFL
9/21/19 Louisville Florida State 3:30 PM ESPN
9/21/19 Appalachian State North Carolina 3:30 PM ACCNX
9/21/19 Central Michigan Miami 4:00 PM ACCN
9/21/19 Kentucky Mississippi State 4:00 PM SECN
9/21/19 South Carolina Missouri 4:00 PM SECN
9/21/19 West Virginia Kansas 4:30 PM ESPN+
9/21/19 New Mexico State New Mexico 4:30 PM
9/21/19 Hampton Liberty 6:00 PM ESPN+
9/21/19 William & Mary East Carolina 6:00 PM ESPN3
9/21/19 Wagner Florida Atlantic 6:00 PM ESPN+
9/21/19 Oregon Stanford 7:00 PM ESPN
9/21/19 Old Dominion Virginia 7:00 PM ESPN2
9/21/19 Southern Illinois Arkansas State 7:00 PM ESPN3
9/21/19 Georgia State Texas State 7:00 PM ESPN+
9/21/19 Baylor Rice 7:00 PM CBSSN
9/21/19 Ball State NC State 7:00 PM ESPNU
9/21/19 Charlotte Clemson 7:30 PM ACCN
9/21/19 Oklahoma State Texas 7:30 PM ABC
9/21/19 San Jose State Arkansas 7:30 PM SECN
9/21/19 UTSA North Texas 7:30 PM
9/21/19 Notre Dame Georgia 8:00 PM CBS
9/21/19 Nevada UTEP 8:00 PM ESPN3
9/21/19 Nebraska Illinois 8:00 PM BTN
9/21/19 Colorado Arizona State 10:00 PM PAC12
9/21/19 Sacramento State Fresno State 10:00 PM
9/21/19 Toledo Colorado State 10:15 PM ESPN2
9/21/19 UCLA Washington State 10:30 PM ESPN
9/21/19 Utah State San Diego State 10:30 PM CBSSN
9/21/19 Central Arkansas Hawai'i 11:59 PM

GRT games and contests

While you’re waiting for the games to begin, make sure that you submit your answers to the GRT Guessing Game questions and update your picks for the GRT Pick ‘Em.

GRT game-week audio

Here’s the GRT Podcast from earlier this week with talk of both Gators, which we hate, and donuts, which we (mostly) love:

And here is Will’s regular Friday appearance with Josh Ward and Heather Harrington on WNML’s Sports 180.

Pre-game prep

To catch up on your pre-game reading, have a look at our game preview posts from earlier this week:

And here’s the best of the stuff we curated from other sites this week:

Go Vols!

Stay on Target?

We’ve made much of Tennessee running fewer plays than any team in the country last year. The Vols took a few overtime snaps, but are nonetheless 69th in total plays through three games this year (stats via SportSource Analytics). Tennessee is averaging 68.3 snaps per game; last year it was 59.7.

The Vols are also more balanced on first down so far this year. Last year Tennessee ran the ball 69.7% of the time on first down; this year the Vols are at 61.4%. The late attempt to rally against Georgia State and the backup snaps against Chattanooga help balance out the equation.

Last year Tennessee’s passing was extremely balanced: Guarantano had 80 attempts on first down, 78 on second, and 82 on third. Under Jim Chaney, Guarantano has been far more likely to come out firing: 31 passing attempts on first down, compared to 23 on second down and 19 on third down. But at least so far, Guarantano’s struggles don’t seem to come alongside passing more on first down: he’s 20-of-31 (64.5%) for 339 yards (10.9 ypa) and no interceptions.

We know last year Guarantano was really good on third down; add in Tennessee’s struggles to run on third-and-short, and statistically it was better for the Vols to face third-and-medium and let him throw it. So far this year? Guess who leads the nation in third down completion percentage?

On third down, Guarantano is 16-of-19 (84.2%) for 171 yards (9.0 ypa). Now, you’ll point out that his completion percentage is higher because the Vols have been making too many safe throws behind the sticks on third down. And you’re right in part: despite the ridiculous completion percentage, the Vols have converted only eight times on his 19 third down passes. So far Tennessee’s entire third-and-short package has struggled: on 3rd-and-1-3, Guarantano is 3-for-3 for two yards and one first down.

Third-and-medium has been mixed: Guarantano is 4-of-7 for 40 yards with a touchdown, an interception, and only three first downs on those seven attempts. But on 3rd-and-7-10+, Guarantano is 9-of-9 for 129 yards (14.3 ypa). Four of those nine third-and-long completions led to first downs.

Guarantano has been okay on first down, and so far Chaney is mixing it up more than his predecessor. And he’s been really good, again, on third-and-long. It’s the tighter windows on third down where JG is struggling more. And you can see it on fourth down too: 1-of-3 for five yards coming via the tipped touchdown by Jennings against BYU.

Issues are also easier to spot when the Vols get thrown off schedule. Guarantano on second down this year: 13-of-23 (56.5%) for 114 yards (4.9 ypa). When the Vols are unsuccessful on first down and then go back to the pass on second down, it’s been less fruitful.

Some good news here: the Vols have allowed only 13 tackles for loss, 35th nationally. Tennessee was 116th in that category last year, 112th in 2017. The number may go down as the Vols face SEC competition starting this week, but there does appear to be some real improvement on the offensive line.

In the first half against Georgia State, the Vols had gains of two yards or less on first down seven times. But Tennessee still converted six of those series into first downs. Then in the second half, the Vols had gains of two yards or less on first down five times, and failed to turn any of those series into first downs or touchdowns.

By my count, the Vols were 12-of-17 in similar situations against BYU. That’s pretty good! There’s an unanswerable question in here about how much of this was/is mental: a case of the oh-nos in the second half against Georgia State, tightening up on third-and-medium and fourth down, etc. But on first down, and on third-and-long, Guarantano is still relatively sharp.

Going forward, the Vols could trade sharp for spectacular: Tennessee has just 10 plays of 20+ yards so far this season. That’s 98th nationally, and better than only a dozen teams who’ve played three games.

All of this goes into the pot for Jim Chaney when game-planning for the Gators. Your quarterback is good on first down and third-and-long. He’s struggled so far when the windows got tighter. You need more big plays, but also have to block well enough to set them up against the best defense you’ve seen yet. The offense may have a tendency to get tight, so how aggressive do you want to be in the early going when it backfired so spectacularly against this team last year?

I’m not sure what to expect. But it should be our best data point yet. Here’s hoping the Vols make it a good one.

The Gameday on Rocky Top Guessing Game: 2019 Week 4

It’s Friday before Gameday, and that means it’s time for the Gameday on Rocky Top Guessing Game. If you’ve played before, you know the deal, and you can skip to the questions below. If not, catch up here.

Let’sa go!

  1. Submit your answers to our three questions below.
  2. Click the “Submit” button.
  3. Copy and paste your answers in the comments below.

Good luck!

Gameday on Rocky Top Podcast – Episode 155 – Florida Week

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Robo-Transcript below.

Pardon the errors, as the bot understands neither southern accents nor football.

Joel:
Hey, look, it’s the Gameday on Rocky Top podcast episode one fifty five. We are back from an undisclosed remote location where we were undergoing therapy and rehab after drinking too much whiskey and smoking too much crack. All of which was understandable because of the Vols two consecutive losses to open the season and because my wife and kids and pastor are all probably listening. I’m kidding. I didn’t smoke any crack anyway. I’m Will Shelton. Kidding again. I’m Joel Hollingsworth. I’m joined by Will Shelton. Will, did you spend any time in rehab over the past couple of weeks?

Will:
No. You know, we did one of these after the Georgia state game, and then a number of circumstances prevented us from doing what, after BYU? Was it like I was at the BYU game? I wasn’t at the Georgia state game. So I’m 100 percent convinced. If I was at both, I would definitely think Georgia State was worse than BYU. That obviously not a great way to go there at the end of regulation and a weird day we read about this weird not only for the unlikelihood of that last play, but also just man Tennessee control that game the whole time. I mean, you never once you saw they showed up to play. Never really thought they’d lose. And so I eat our nature of podcasting or not podcasting and suggests that we like felt worse after BYU. I still felt a little better. Was that year. Was that your take, too?

Joel:
I did feel better. Yes, I thought. I think Georgia State was a fluke. I think what happened there was that they their mistake was not taking them seriously and thinking it was a pre-season game and thinking, hey, we need to we need to use this as a scrimmage and figure out about ourselves and oh, no, it’s the fourth quarter and we’re about to lose and it’s too late. I think that’s what happened there. And I think who are we? We’re not we’re not the team that played Georgia State. We’re not the team that played UTC. But I think we might just be the team that played BYU, which is sort of a cusp B. Top 25 or have a chance against the top 20 to top 25 teams. I’m thinking that’s kind of where we’re at right now.

Will:
Yeah, they were you. I watched a lot of that USC game, like a lot of people hopefully hoping that they looked great and they did win. They offensively they had a lot more purpose against the Trojans than they did against Tennessee. And I’m hopeful that Tennessee’s defense was part of taking them out of that purpose, because like we said, I mean, they just Tennessee control that game from start to finish. And nothing that BYU use offense did in regulation was particularly frightening. They should get credit for a couple of great calls. They dialed up those reverse and around calls at the at the perfect time in regulation and in overtime. And kudos to those guys for that. But then is USC, they really looked like their offense had some purpose. So if you are if you want to lean optimistic about this thing, then maybe, Joel, what you’re saying is exactly right. Tennessee just didn’t show up at all against Georgia State. Certainly some of that was alignment. That’s what we were hoping two weeks ago. Turns out that was some of that, at least was the case when they get lined up. Right. They don’t have to give up four yards a carry to everybody. And you know that Tennessee’s defense looks better when Bertucci is on the field. We might get to find out if they look better. Bryce Thompson is on the field. No one’s exactly sure what’s going to happen there still. But yeah, I I feel better about the whole of of things. And I’m not sure if Tennessee beat Georgia State, you know, thirty eight to thirty seven and then they beat BYU 16 to 13 or whatever that was. I’m not sure. Like week to week in terms of Tennessee’s chances against the Gators on Saturday, I’m not sure I’d feel a whole lot different than where we are with Tennessee losing both of those games.

Joel:
I think that’s right. Yeah. And just to clarify, I was not, you know, wallowing in addiction or anything like that or I will also wasn’t just you know, it wasn’t we didn’t we didn’t have the we didn’t forego the podcast just because we were upset about football, that we had stuff going on. I got sick

Will:
Brett?

Joel:
For like always nasty sick. It was it was I don’t hope anybody ever gets that sick. It was nasty. Anyway, moving on. So the real season actually, I think begins now. The Vols head into the thicket of the SCC schedule. They get the gators this Saturday at noon on ESPN and then they get a week off before a gauntlet of get out my trusty magazine here. I did a smart thing this time. I actually put the schedule on the first page, so I didn’t have to look for it every time now. So, yeah. So we got Georgia in Knoxville and then Mississippi State and Knoxville. They go to Alabama, then they get South Carolina in Knoxville. A little bit of a breather, maybe hopefully against UAB for homecoming in Knoxville. And then they finish the gauntlet with a trip to Lexington to play Kentucky. So that’s that’s the gauntlet. But first up is, is Florida. And, you know, here’s the thing. They don’t look great, you know, but here’s the other thing. We always think that and then and then they gang up with the weirdness and they put a whopping on us. You know, I know we have 2016. Right. And, you know, I’m happy for that. I’m glad we have it. But it’s like one twelfth of our memories of, you know, of our recent memories. It’s like a it’s like a Boston cream, a single Boston cream and a box of like maple cake donuts. You know, no offense to maple cake doughnut lovers, but those things are terrible. You know, I do. Do you like maple cake? Doughnuts? You’re what? They’re probably your wife’s,

Will:
No.

Joel:
Like, specialty or something

Will:
No.

Joel:
That said

Will:
My

Joel:
That.

Will:
Wife does not do donuts, so you’re safe on that. No.

Joel:
Okay.

Will:
But I also am not a fan at all. Boston Cream. So I really wasn’t sure where you were going with that.

Joel:
Boston cream is like the best what? So. Okay, well, what is your what’s your favorite? What’s your Florida 2016 donut? And then what’s your. I hate Florida. Don’t it fills up the rest of the box.

Will:
Well, see, the Florida 2016 donut is the donut that you eat and you enjoy it so much and then you hate yourself the next day because of the rest of the donuts that were in the 2016 box after that, what the Hail Mary donut the next week. So

Joel:
Okay.

Will:
That’s that’s a good. So I feel like I can’t use my my my favorite favorite doughnut is a Krispy Kreme seasonally sometimes puts out a key lime donut,

Joel:
Oh,

Will:
Which

Joel:
Yeah.

Will:
Is one of the things that I’ve ever put in my mouth.

Joel:
You know,

Will:
So

Joel:
I’m sorry,

Will:
That’s

Joel:
But now

Will:
A.

Joel:
That now that I versus I think if we had this same conversation, my so stuck on doughnuts that I’ve asked you this question before.

Will:
Well, it could just be that I’m increasingly excited to talk about key lime, because

Joel:
Okay.

Will:
It’s also my wife who is a professional cake decorator, like she makes a key lime cupcake. That is also one of the best things I’ve ever put my mouth. So it’s probably just me talking, talking about key lime a lot. So

Joel:
Ok.

Will:
It would it would not be that it would be the like where you sometimes I feel like when you’re getting doughnuts that you can get to Krispy Kreme and places of that nature. You get to exotic and you get to doughnuts that have too many things going on and they’re too rich and filling in, like, say, you eat one. As was the case in 2016, you get the big battle of Bristol Donut like the big donut that you had before. And then you eat two other really good doughnuts and then you should stop right there and don’t eat anything else out of that box. But then you do you hate yourself for the next roughly three hundred and sixty five days. So that’s that’s that’s my take on that.

Joel:
So do you not have like a doughnut, you just will not eat because they’re so nasty?

Will:
I mean, they would have to be really weird. Krispy Kreme also made a. Oh, what’s the E? The peeps made a peeps doughnuts.

Joel:
Oh, okay. That’s.

Will:
So I won’t eat peeps, period. So that’s just that’s just by nature and proximity to a peep.

Joel:
So don’t tell me that you like cake donuts, because to me like cake donuts, they’re not really donuts. They’re not really cake. They’re like bagels. That, you know, a month before the high school reunion are trying to be doughnuts, you know. But they’re not quite getting there. So,

Will:
It’s a good analogy, too,

Joel:
Yeah.

Will:
I enjoy. If it is Sunday morning before church or after worship in the little coffee and doughnuts section that all good Jesus loving churches have. I do enjoy like a cake doughnut hole in that situation

Joel:
Ok. All right.

Will:
Where it’s something light and all that. But I know, but the place that I eat, Krispy Kreme is when I’m on vacation at the beach. If I’m at the beach, I’m not purchasing any cake donuts. I’m going for the shit. You should eat two or three and then stop situation. There is no cake donuts in that box.

Joel:
I got an image of you sitting on the beach. Your pale white skin getting sunburned with a box full of donut holes.

Will:
Yet you and also the other rule about that is don’t eat donuts on the beach. Man, eat him. Eat him on the on the balcony of your hotel room. That’s just that’s a that’s a private moment with you and the donuts.

Joel:
All right. So let’s talk about Florida. So did you watch the Kentucky game?

Will:
I did. I watched it in full.

Joel:
Ok, first first thoughts when Philippe Franks went down.

Will:
Well, first thought was, man. That is a terrible. And, you know, it’s bad when they don’t go back and show it again. So my first thought was, I feel really bad for that kid even. And especially I mean, he’s done terrible things to Tennessee in 2017 and it certainly was an accomplice to Tennessee doing terrible things to itself last year in this game. But yeah, I felt terrible for him. My next thought was Emory Jones, and then we didn’t see him at all. So this this Trask kid was. I had heard that story, you know, about him being a backup in high school or whatever. But I I had never seen him or not paid any attention to the little bit that he had played before. So when they didn’t play Emory Jones at all. And then this kid comes out and. Those guys did a great job play calling for him, because with Franks, regardless of the ways that we talk ourselves into things in this Tennessee Florida game, the week leading up to it, it’s not just his fans that put forth a defense around Franks that is basically described as weird. I mean, we talked about this on the podcast before the Georgia state game. We’re going to encourage you to do something dumb, right? Like

Joel:
Yep.

Will:
We’ll give you a 12:00 play drive. We bet you’ll do something dumb on plays 1 through 11:00. So that defense didn’t work with with Trask. You’re going to need to blitz that kid more often and make him uncomfortable. I thought he had some happy feet, but he certainly is also 6 5 with a rocket arm. So my bigger takeaway now is when Mullin comes out and says, well, we got game plans for both and we’re going to play both of them, you know, it’s working. I genuinely don’t know. Is he just making Tennessee prepare for two guys, one of which was much more highly rated than the other? Or is this just you know, is it actually going to be. Yeah, we’re going to come out and roll two quarterbacks against Tennessee. So I think everybody is a little curious about whether or not it’s going to be just Trask or if they really do have the 6 5 rocket arm kit or the more athletic option. That’s that’s also going to play against Tennessee.

Joel:
I wonder if it really matters that much with more, and it seems like Mullen’s going to do his thing regardless of who’s under center or in the shotgun.

Will:
It’s a good one. Yeah, good point.

Joel:
So it’s just a matter of, you know, which guy you’ve got to you’ve got to calibrate based on, you know, which guy can run faster or or whatever. I don’t know. We’ll find out. But here’s the thing. As you said, the defense or. Well, let me say this first. It seemed to me like Kentucky started playing different for some reason. I don’t know whether that was really the case or whether Trask was just more efficient or something. But regardless, he he’s seen he played better. You know, the team was better under him. And I don’t know why that that is. Sometimes I don’t know whether because I ask you this question. And just second. But we were well acquainted with the plague of backup quarterbacks. Right. We’ve got rotten memories of backup quarterbacks. And I don’t know what happens, whether whether the defense is like, oh, good, their best guy is out. We can coast from here, you know, or whether the teammates of the guy who just went out are like, oh, no, we better step it up and they start playing better. Or, you know, whether the I don’t know, whatever it might be. Something happens when a new guy comes in. Maybe it’s because your whole game plan goes out the window now because you’ve got somebody new back there. But what do you think it is working? Do you have any explanation for why it is that that sometimes when backup quarterbacks come in, you don’t get the result that you think you should get? Because what you should get is that, hey, the best guy is out. The second best guy is in. We should be able to make something of that.

Will:
I think the simplest answer for all the ways we want to dress it up is when it happens in the middle of the game. The defense didn’t prepare for it and an offense almost by default simplifies because you haven’t been giving the backup as much of the playbook and enough reps in practice and all that stuff. And sometimes if a team is struggling on offense, as the Gators were at that point in the game and struggling, you know, they missed the chip shop field goal at the end of the first half. They had some other things that were. They were part of that, I think. But simplifying the offense. They did lots of quick throws with Trask taking advantage maybe of a defense that by default wants to be more aggressive against the backup. That sort of thing. I think some of it is just that. And then you see the next week. Hopefully this case that when you’re getting a full 60 minutes with this guy and it’s not asking a defense to change on the fly, then they don’t look quite so hot. But intimacy has seen both sides of that historically against backup quarterbacks. But again, I think Florida can negate some of that if they’re going to play both guys, because then you would have the same situation with Emyr Jones where you’re dealing with having to change it up on defense and adapt if Mullin is going to design kind of two different things for these guys. I think, again, you have to hope that now that you’ve seen a quarter and some change against this guy in a live fire situation and you’re ready for it as opposed to trying to be ready for what Franks does then in Tennessee, hopefully won’t have as much of a problem as Kentucky at.

Joel:
So I alluded to this earlier, but Tennessee’s had some bad experiences with this before. So what are your worst memories of backup quarterbacks as a Tennessee fan? Go.

Will:
Well, Matt, Mark is right is number one.

Joel:
That’s

Will:
I mean,

Joel:
Got

Will:
That’s

Joel:
To be number one. Yeah.

Will:
That’s at the top of everybody’s list. I was at that game and I probably said on this podcast and I know in writing that I was I was 20 years old then and a student at USC and all that stuff in 2001. And my three friends that I went to that game that we’re talking about, how can we rent an RV that drive that drive to Pasadena? None of us is old enough to legally rent a car, all that stuff at halftime. I think we said forwards to each other on the drive back to Knoxville on a car. So

Joel:
All

Will:
That

Joel:
Profanities.

Will:
That one and. Yes. And just more coughing than

Joel:
Yeah.

Will:
Talking. And that that went to it happened in Tennessee at a time when Tennessee’s defense was so elite that it was it was just chugging in there. I always try to make a point to say when we’re talking about that game, sometimes you just fumble. There’s lots of little things you can pick apart. And certainly Tennessee wasn’t prepared. They they were ready for a road hand debut. They weren’t prepared for Mark being more elusive. But also their two best offensive skill players, Travis Stevens

Joel:
Yep.

Will:
And Donte Stallworth, fumble in the fourth quarter. It happens. It sucks. But sometimes it happens and it’s you in battle dropped an interception. You know, we don’t need to relive that game or that. So, Mark, as one. I think the Kentucky won the Dooley, Kentucky one is too. Just because that’s the other end of the spectrum where you’ve had a bad year. Kentucky is worse. And trotting out the let’s try a wide receiver at quarterback today and it works for the first time in three plus decades. So that one is is certainly on the list in terms of what cost Tennessee, Jake Bentley at South Carolina a couple of years ago where, you know, that wasn’t an endgame switch and neither was Kentucky with what was that kid’s name? Rourke. That was the the wide receiver starting quarterback.

Joel:
I’ve I’ve repressed all that.

Will:
Yeah. I don’t want to remember.

Joel:
Yeah.

Will:
So no need to notify us if we got that wrong. But you know, Bentley in South Carolina, who’s you know. Oh, he is he’s supposed to be at his prom and all this other stuff.

Joel:
Yeah.

Will:
And here in South Carolina and Tennessee, off the bye week just with everything in front of him, that that game. I know that I didn’t ever write this. My grandmother died the day before that game. And, you know, I often joke like that would have killed her if she lived another day. Because I mean, that that thing I just remember being in a hotel in Covington, Tennessee, where my son was named after for my grandmother’s funeral and watching the end of that game and just thinking, what are you doing to me to say it like this? This is to stop eating the doughnuts. Right. That that game, by the way, again, not to dwell on the bad, but but doing those historic lines with Tennessee lost to Georgia State. That’s that’s like the fifth worst upset that Tennessee has suffered in the last 30 years. So we probably didn’t give that. There was no overreacting to that. Let me say that any any reaction to that loss and I was like, say, my grandmother died. I was kind of out of the immediacy of responding to it in blog form. But yeah, those weren’t over reactions. That was those are appropriate reactions for 14 and a half point underdog. So those are the three that stand out to me. Let me say this, like some of this angst we’re fans are of, we have fans of ages now that don’t weren’t alive when we were great.

Will:
It’s not their fault they weren’t alive. But there is this this is turning a little too jinxed for my taste because we mentioned the good tasting donut of the 2016 Florida game. That was a backup quarterback. That was Austin Appleby in that game who threw a delicious interception in the midst of that. That that fourth quarter run by Tennessee, where I’m telling my wife I’ve been waiting all day for him to make that throw. And sure enough, you know, he added anything. So you have to hope for things like that with Trask, too, that if you get into that kind of situation, like just he’s he’s going to have something, he’s gonna have a bad decision in him. And hopefully that is what shows up there. So not it doesn’t always go bad against the gators. And there’s a one from 2014 as well where the you know, you’re up nine to nothing and then you give him the short field and they put in the backup and he runs one play and gets a touchdown. I’ve forgotten that guy’s name, too, but yeah. Those those Mark and then the Kentucky one. And I think Nick Bentley would be three on on my list.

Joel:
All right, speaking of quarterbacks, no. Had kind of a rough start, like the team for the first couple of games and then really bad first throw on on his first throw and against UTC, but then went what was seven of eight. He finished, looked really good, like he found a groove. It was Chattanooga. So we’ll see. But how are you feeling about Karen Tano at this point?

Will:
I feel like I would take the 2018 version of him in a heartbeat. Right now.

Joel:
Yeah.

Will:
The version that we all attached ourselves to in the offseason, the will be better because he’s a year older and we’ll be better because working with Jim Chaney version at this point, I’m willing to let that go. And I would just take last year’s version because I’m unsure what’s going on here other than to say that again. And good grief. We should know better.

Joel:
Yep,

Will:
I should know better.

Joel:
I know what you’re gonna say.

Will:
Don’t assume that new offensive coordinator is gonna mean smooth sailing right away. Like we should know that by now. But yeah, that is clearly not the case. So I hope again, for his sake. Can we simplify? Can we do something different? But if you give me the guy where you say, you know, your job is don’t make mistakes and give us a chance and give our excellent wide receivers who Pruitt said this week or last week, I feel like I know what I got at wide receiver and I’m not sure about anywhere else. He’s right. I feel like I know what we’ve got a wide receiver, too. Let’s give those guys a chance. You can’t expect the Auburn game from last year is so strange in terms of what Tennessee did on third down. You can’t expect that every time, especially against good defenses like the Gators in theory have. But the quarterback, that is not. I don’t know if he’s pressing. I don’t know if he’s just not. If he’s overwhelmed with with the scheme or whatever the case may be. But I mean, his interceptions are bad interceptions. You know, they are they are bad, bad interceptions. So I would I will go back to the 2018 version of him if that was offered to me right now.

Joel:
Do you watch the the sports source TV show? I know. I know you don’t want to live. But

Will:
Yeah,

Joel:
Yeah.

Will:
I’d watch it on YouTube. I usually click through and watch the highlights. That depends on what game it was and what happened. But yeah, I click through the segments where the descriptions are of interest to me.

Joel:
So did you see the one where they talked about David Evans story in the athletic about the UTC staff identifying some tells the offense and the defense?

Will:
I did not. Because I. Because it was Chattanooga. I have not. I have not taken the time to watch any of it this week.

Joel:
Ok. Did you read the article?

Will:
I think it’s.

Joel:
Ok. So just if anybody is listening, hasn’t seen it. The gist of it is that David Alvin of the Athletic, who is fantastic. If you are not subscribed to that site, you should.

Will:
Yes, whole, whole we agree. We don’t know that dude. I don’t get a dime from them. You should subscribe to that. Absolutely.

Joel:
Yep,

Will:
And it

Joel:
Yep.

Will:
Just it supports a model of writing about sports on the Internet that you will not be surprised to know that Joel and I are fans of and believe them. So, yes, subscribe to them.

Joel:
Yeah. So he was embedded with the UTC staff the week before the Tennessee game and was privy then to their scouting of Tennessee. And they identified some tells, which I guess is what you do when your game plan, right. I mean, this is this is unique to guys who’ve never been in a locker room, but maybe is not so surprising to people who have. But it was really interesting in some of the things were like that, like the one they talked about on the sports source show was that if you follow Austin Pope, you will find the ball because Austin Pope, they run behind him every single time.

Will:
As

Joel:
And.

Will:
Opposed to running behind Dominick Wood-Anderson. Yeah.

Joel:
Yeah. So follow. Number 81. And you will find the ball. So I mean, it’s pretty interesting if you’d if you watch against see that’s that’s what happened. But the whole time that they’re talking about this. Sterling Hinton, is it. No, they’re smiling. Right. And when pendants and finally gives the floor to him, he’s like, you know what? They if if if it’s working, you don’t change it. Right. So you just keep doing it as long as it’s not working. And then you go do your counters. It’s all a game theory, man. Right. Of course, I should have said it like sterling hidden, which is, you know, 20 decibels more in a higher pitch in a lot more interesting and inspirational, which I love that dude. But anyway. So anyway, the reason I bring that up is just. Are you worried about a team in FC s team figuring out what Jim Chaney is going to do before he does it? Or do you side with Sterling Hinton, which is saying don’t worry about it, man, because when it stops working, he’s got a wrinkle.

Will:
I would need to see more data

Joel:
Dr..

Will:
In general. I’m not worried about Jim Chaney. It would take a lot here. A lot going wrong. I think for four. Reasonable Tennessee fans just get off the Cheney bandwagon, given over who’s been and what he’s done. And just look at the personnel and some of the talent deficiency. He’s working with here. I think it falls in line with what we’ve already talked about, which is the lack of seriousness with which they took Georgia State, which absolutely falls on Pruitt. But, you know, some of that stuff is the bit in there about and Jesse Simonton and I think it’s pointed on Volk West has pointed this out, too, that, hey, when Tennessee’s receivers are not Marquez Callaway, Jauan Jennings or Palmer on the field, they’re gonna run. I figured that out. You know, just just watching, being at the game and seeing, OK, there’s Ramel Keyton and there’s Cedric Tillman. This is gonna be a run. And and more often than not, that’s been the case. The backup wide receivers are in. It’s gonna be a run again. That’s the sort of stuff that was BYU. That’s the sort of stuff that you can get away with against some of these other teams that you will get away with way less against a team like Florida.

Will:
But I’m hoping that those are that’s why I say any more data. I’m obviously I’m not pleased that they overlooked Georgia State to the degree that they did. But I’m also hopeful that they’ve got a different bag of tricks in store here for for what they’re gonna get against the gators and falls in line with. What they did last year. I mean, they. They they beat YouTube. They really dominated YouTube statistically, but only scored, whatever, 24 points last year. I mean, they were very vanilla and all they had because they didn’t want to show. And then they came out. It didn’t work, but they came out so hyper aggressive against the gators with a very different set of things. And then they went to even more different and newer things, some of which worked a little against Georgia and worked better against Auburn. So, yeah, I need I need more data. If we’re still talking about running behind Austin Pope in October, then we got a problem. But I’m not ready

Joel:
I

Will:
To go there yet.

Joel:
Don’t know if we’re running 300 yards a game behind Austin Pope,

Will:
You.

Joel:
I’d be OK

Will:
Yeah, sure.

Joel:
With that.

Will:
But

Joel:
Yeah,

Will:
A.

Joel:
Yeah, yeah. I just think that tendencies that are actually good things. I mean, how do you how do you spring a really, really good play? You set it up with tendencies and then you break the tendency when they’re not expecting it. So anyway, I just I just think it’s if that’s all you can do, that’s a problem. But if you’ve got other things that you can go to after you said set up the other team, then that’s fine. So against Florida, what what do you think is the what’s the number one thing that you think Tennessee needs to do to get the upset against gators Saturday?

Will:
I don’t know. I have been trying to figure that out. Other than. So there is an answer here. That’s the magical Garen Tanto plays better. Sure. That would be helpful. But besides that and the magical when the turnovers by three or more. Yeah. Also would be helpful. I’m curious about. They beat BYU to death with outside runs because Tennessee has way better athletes than BYU. On the edge. Not true. On Saturday. So can they? No. When in doubt is the first truth of Tennessee, Florida is a team that runs the ball best since to win. So is there a version of this running attack that does work when you’re not dealing with a speed advantage on the outside? I hope so. I think that would be interesting and I’m curious to see that. But I mean, honestly, we’re recording this here on Wednesday nights and I’m trying to figure out what to write about this game on Friday, because all of the angles I just don’t know with with backup quarterback at Florida. I don’t know. They looks better. Tennessee’s defense look better. Like I say with Bertucci in there, I get Bryce Thompson back. Is that going to make a big difference? I don’t know. There’s just a lot that I’m really unsure of. And and we talked about this a little in the Tennessee Florida history piece earlier this week. We had that stretch there of basically 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17 of those cities. You really have the better team. They were favored in that stretch. They should have won 14, 15, 16, 17. And then last year. Now the gators go on to have a great season because of the time when that happened. They were just a team that lost to Kentucky and then waxed Tennessee. And that was obviously not a good feeling for anybody. But as it turned out, Florida ten win team top 10. Great job. Mullins, a good coach.

Joel:
Kentucky

Will:
All that stuff.

Joel:
Is also

Will:
But.

Joel:
Good.

Will:
Kentucky also good, as it turns

Joel:
Yeah.

Will:
Out. But the game itself. What am I supposed to take from I living in southwest Virginia? I have this conversation about the battle at Bristol all the time where Virginia Tech fans are kind of like, well, you know, and I say, hey, if you fumble it to a six times we’re supposed to beat, you look like that’s what’s supposed to happen and we’re supposed to beat you by multiple possessions, which is what happened. So, like, I’m I’m not talking trash or anything. I’m telling you, if you put it on the ground six times. Thank you. And we will probably anyone will probably take advantage of that situation. So I really what I said at the time to my if there are any of my hockey friends that are listening to this, I would like to see that game again. Tech, as it turns out, was pretty good that you’re two. And it was not a if you fumble it six times, it’s not a fair representation of who you are. Not a fair representation. Tennessee wasn’t a good football team last year, but the Florida game wasn’t a fair representation of who they were. If you I mean, again, the first 10 drives ended in something other than a punt or a touchdown. That’s so weird. So I don’t know. I just I’m not going back to this mode of Tennessee. Actually have a better team. No, of course they don’t. But how much better really was Florida than Tennessee last year? How much better is Florida with a backup quarterback right now than a Tennessee that lost Georgia state? I’ve got no idea. So I honestly. Do you have one Joe Doyle? Do you have a. Here’s what I think is most important other than the pixie dust for Garen Santo.

Joel:
I just think it’s turnovers.

Will:
Yeah. Which is I mean, that’s the underdog playbook, right?

Joel:
It’s the underdog playbook, and it’s just I again, I would like to see last year’s game again without the turnovers. What happens? You know, I think I heard Pruitt say in some presser earlier this season that he thought turnovers basically were four points. So that’s 24 points right there. You know, I just I I think if they play clean and force turnovers instead of giving them away, then then they’ve got a shot. And the problem is that the weirdness has never been wearing our colors in this thing. So I don’t know if we could figure out how to send him to the medical tent. Let’s do that.

Will:
Yeah. It’s so funny because even the it’s weird statistically, the 30 minutes of glory there in 2016, but that wasn’t weird. I mean, Tennessee just whipped him for about real time and I mean, nothing Joanne’s catch on the sideline. Obviously, the juggling was that was weird. But, you know, Taber, as we all know, was quite beat on that play. So, you know, the other times that Tennessee has has one in this series there, 2004, there’s weirdness obviously at the end with the the missed extra point and rightfully so. Some complain about the personal foul call that went against the gators and wasn’t offsetting. That was that was a big deal. Two thousand three tests. They just whipped them up front and won that game. Hail Mary was helpful, but it wasn’t the margin. Tennessee just really dominated them up front and won that game. A one anybody. I mean, classic game. I play that game ten times. Each side wins five great game 98 as he wins cause they get five turnovers. So yeah, I mean sometimes you’ve got to have you’ve got to have that stuff.

Joel:
That

Will:
But a

Joel:
I’m sorry,

Will:
Good.

Joel:
That those those I don’t I can’t remember all five turnovers in that 98 game, but I’m not sure those weren’t unforced errors. Those were Al Wilson.

Will:
Yeah. Yeah. I would say the only one. Deon Grant, the incredible individual play, the one the first one where Florida is going in to take a 7 and nothing lead. And that thing gets punched out at the goal line. Not not weird for the play. Just for what a huge I mean, you got to remember at that point in time, Tennessee hadn’t had a lead. Tennessee being a top 5 team for three or four years in a row and had a lead on Florida since halftime of three years earlier. So when those guys are getting ready to go up 7 or nothing and punch it in and Tennessee instead punches that out, that that felt like a that and then a long Sean Brown and run. I remember thinking this is not how this usually goes, you know? And we could use. There was one of those in the 15 game in the swamp that Jauan Jennings passed back to Josh Dobbs had

Joel:
Yeah.

Will:
A feeling of this isn’t how this usually goes. So, yeah, we need one of those that

Joel:
Yeah,

Will:
Would that would be helpful.

Joel:
Well, not when I say the weirdness, it’s it’s like I have never seen that before and it really hurts.

Will:
Yep, yep.

Joel:
Yeah.

Will:
And Florida does to Tennessee what Tennessee used to do to Kentucky, which is why you think you’ve run out of ways to have your heart broken. But surprise. We’re going to block this kick in overtime and those turn it back for a touchdown and then beat you two overtimes later. So, yeah, I mean, that’s that’s that. That tends to be how that goes.

Joel:
Yeah. All right. So a freestyle, anything that I haven’t asked that you want to talk about. And if you can give it a rhythm and make it rhyme. Extra points.

Will:
Right. No, I think this it maybe I’ll read about this like the lost to BYU. It was freeing in a way that I think now there is no choice left but to embrace the reality of the situation, which you can do. We can argue about what rock bottom is. But the first step in recovery is admit that you have a problem that’s beyond your control. So I think there was a level of admit that’s. Whatever Georgia state actually revealed to BYU, the end of that game made you swallow it whole. So I just. All that to say this if Tennessee. The last time we beat these guys in 2016, it was almost a relief. Not the way the game itself played out. It was a thrilling surprise being down when we were down and then coming back in that game. But at kickoff, it’s like beating them would have been a relief. More than anything else. And it was a statement on whether or not Butch Jones can get it done and whether or not he’s back. And then obviously that was incorrect. After winning that game. But now, because of Tennessee being 1 and 2, because we’re not doing bowl math here yet, because we have no illusions about winning the east or anything like that. This really feels like a standalone. If Tizzy somehow finds a way to win this game, there’s kind of a freedom in being able to celebrate and appreciate it just for what it is and not having to tie it into.

Will:
What it was for former in terms of literally and figuratively, the game that made the difference between being a national champion and not being in that conversation and not in 2001. And for Butch Jones where it was. Is this going to. Is just going to work for you or not? There are duly in 2012 is just going to work for you or not. There’s there’s just a freedom in it to say, hey, look, if Tennessee wins this game, we still got lots of problems and we’re still probably going to be more likely to get to five wins than six. But man, it would be great. And there’s a bye week after that. It would be really great. And so I think it’s it would just kind of be a stand alone when where the larger than the largest narrative at play here is Tennessee is in bad shape. And we got a ways to go and we need to measure progress from the bottom and not to the top butts. So I don’t know. That strikes me as being different this week. The feel of it is it’s kind of untethered from everything else that’s happening in Tennessee is so big. This isn’t a prove anything. Game 4 Jeremy Pruitt. It’s it’s just an opportunity to go out there and beat your rival and we can celebrate it appropriately if that’s

Joel:
And

Will:
What happens.

Joel:
That’ll do it for this edition of the Gameday on Rocky Top podcast. We appreciate you tuning in. And hey, if you feel so inclined, we’d love for you to give us a rating and maybe leave us a review. Bonus points if you include the secret phrase maple cake donuts, we might even send you a box. It’ll be the same one we got back in 2012. But trust us, they taste exactly the same now as they did back then. So for Will Shelton Joel Hollingsworth. And this has been the Gameday on Rocky Top podcast.

Will:
I think back to my the like 2010 and 11, where I was traveling back and forth to seminary in the fall as well, like I did, I did many of these in my car in a parking lot somewhere because my roommate was not like it just wasn’t worth trying to explain to these people that I was only seeing a couple days a week what was going on. I was like, I’m just gonna go to the car for like an hour. So.

Joel:
He spoke.

Will:
Yep, this is breaking the covenant of the seminary.

Joel:
So what do you think about the game? My machine says 10.

Will:
You know, how would we feel about 10? That’s that’s the thing of. That would cover the spread. You’d be like, OK.

What the SPM comps say about Tennessee-Florida

The SPM took it on the chin in Week 3, going 17-24 (41.46%) on all games (excluding those involving FCS teams and those for which there were insufficient comps). Above what is usually a magic confidence level, it went 6-8 (42.86%) and within the usual magic confidence range, it managed only 3-3 (50%).

Last week, we pulled out all of the games involving FCS opponents so that we could monitor them separately. The early returns are mixed: It was better over the confidence level and in the confidence range as you’d expect, but slightly worse overall. It was a weird week, though, so we’ll just keep monitoring. Also, this was the first week we actually compiled results separately depending on whether the SPM complained about not having at least two good comps. The official results we post here are those that don’t include the games involving FCS opponents or those for which the SPM doesn’t have at least two good comps. That only starts in Week 3, though, as the official results for Weeks 1 and 2 include both of those categories as of now.

For the season so far, the SPM is 61-69 (46.92%) overall, 33-32 (50.77%) over the confidence threshold, and 17-11 (60.71%) within the confidence range.

Although it was a game involving an FCS opponent and thus didn’t count toward the official results, the SPM did get the Tennessee-Chattanooga game right, saying the Vols would easily cover the 24-28 point spread. Let’s take a look to see what it says this week about the Gators

Vols-Gators

We’re only three weeks into the 2019 season, and although there are now enough comps to work with, some of them are still a bit questionable. For that reason, we’re still using a combination of 2018 and 2019 data and weighing them accordingly.

2018

Without going through all of it, the 2018 data spits out an estimated score of Florida 41.4, Tennessee 18.9. That uses spot-on comps, but it’s last year’s teams.

From the perspective of 2019 Tennessee

Tennessee scoring offense for the season: 33.7
Florida scoring defense for the season: 13.7

The Florida scoring defense is most similar to the following prior Tennessee opponent(s) (FBS only):
BYU 27.7
Georgia State 43
Against BYU, Tennessee scored 26 points.
Against Georgia State, Tennessee scored 30 points.

Estimated points for Tennessee against Florida: 28

Those are bad scoring defense comps, with BYU and Georgia State both being significantly worse than Florida, so assuming the Vols are going to score about what they scored against those teams is suspect. Bottom line: Be wary of that 28 points for Tennessee.

Tennessee scoring defense for the season: 22.3
Florida scoring offense for the season: 32.7

The Florida scoring offense is most similar to the following prior Tennessee opponent(s):
Georgia State 32
BYU 23.7
Against BYU, Tennessee allowed 29 points.
Against Georgia State, Tennessee allowed 38 points.

Estimated points for Florida against Tennessee: 33.5

Estimated score: Tennessee 28, Florida 33.5

From the perspective of 2019 Florida

Florida scoring offense for the season: 32.7
Tennessee scoring defense for the season: 22.3

The Tennessee scoring defense is most similar to the following prior Florida opponent(s) (FBS only):
Kentucky 23.3
Miami (Florida) 17.3
Against Kentucky, Florida scored 29 points.
Against Miami (Florida), Florida scored 24 points.

Estimated points for Florida against Tennessee: 26.5

Florida scoring defense for the season: 13.7
Tennessee scoring offense for the season: 33.7

The Tennessee scoring offense is most similar to the following prior Florida opponent(s):
Kentucky 32.3
Miami (Florida) 36
Against Kentucky, Florida allowed 21 points.
Against Miami (Florida), Florida allowed 20 points.

Estimated points for Tennessee against Florida: 20.5

That’s much better data to use to determine Tennessee points.

Estimated score: Florida 26.5, Tennessee 20.5

SPM Final Estimates

Putting all of that together, here’s what the SPM gets:

SPM Final estimated score: Tennessee 23.1, Florida 33.8

SPM Final estimated spread: Florida -10.7

SPM Confidence level: 3.3

That confidence level puts it under our threshold for feeling very good about it, at least against the spread.

Eyeball adjustments

That looks about right for Florida’s points, but seems a wee bit high on Tennessee’s points . For that reason, my eyeball-adjusted prediction is Florida 34, Tennessee 20.

Other predictions from other systems

The Vegas line has Florida as the favorite at between -14 and -14.5 with an over/under of 48.5 – 49. That translates to something approximating Tennessee 17, Florida 31.

Bill Connelly’s SP+ likes Florida 35-17 and gives the Vols a 14% chance of winning. SP+ is 54.3% overall and 64% on games for which it and the spread are at least three points apart.

As I said above, for the season, our SPM is 61-69 (46.92%) overall, 33-32 (50.77%) over the confidence threshold, and 17-11 (60.71%) within the confidence range. That would put our overall number 38th on this projection tracker. Our favorites-only number would be 1st. Well, second behind Bill’s and only until everyone else was allowed to use their favorites-only number.

ESPN’s FPI gives the Vols a 13.9% chance of winning.

Bottom line

Florida by 14 seems about right. Let’s hope right is wrong this week.

What are y’all thinking?

Time and TV for the Vols game this week, plus other games of interest

We’re a quarter of the way in, but now the real season starts as the Vols head into SEC play against the Florida Gators this Saturday in Gainesville. Tennessee is a sizeable underdog, although that often doesn’t matter as much as which color jersey The Weirdness is wearing. Sure, he’s usually on the wrong team, but he has to graduate at some point, doesn’t he?

Here’s when and where to find the games that matter to Vols fans this week, along with some suggestions on how and why to watch them. First up is the list curated just for Vols fans. The full schedule follows that.

Thursday, September 19, 2019

Away Home Time TV How Why
Houston Tulane 8:00 PM ESPN Live It's football

Not too exciting, but what else are you doing Thursday night in the fall?

Friday, September 20, 2019

Away Home Time TV How Why
Utah USC 9:00 PM FS1 Live It's football

Maybe?

Gameday, September 21, 2019

Away Home Time TV How Why
NOON
Texas Tech Oklahoma 12:00 PM FOX Channel Hop Why not?
Texas A&M Arkansas 12:00 PM ESPN Channel Hop Former coaching candidate
Northern Illinois Vanderbilt 12:00 PM SECN Channel Hop Future Vols opponent
AFTERNOON
Clemson North Carolina 3:30 PM ABC Channel Hop Closer than expected?
Ole Miss Alabama 3:30 PM CBS Channel Hop Future Vols opponent
Virginia Notre Dame 3:30 PM NBC Channel Hop Top 20 matchup
Towson Florida 4:00 PM SECN Channel Hop Former Vols opponent
USC Washington 3:30 PM FOX Channel Hop Top 20 matchup
EVENING
Mississippi State Auburn 7:00 PM ESPN Channel Hop/DVR Future Vols opponent
Kentucky South Carolina 7:30 PM SECN Channel Hop/DVR Future Vols opponents

It’s Vols-Gators at high noon on ESPN in The Swamp, Tennessee hoping for an upset. A couple of future Vols opponents are also in action, but those games shouldn’t provide much entertainment or education.

In the afternoon slot, it’s No. 8 Auburn at No. 17 Texas A&M on CBS. Four future Vols opponents — Kentucky, Mississippi State, South Carolina, and Missouri — are in two games at the same time, so check in on them every once in a while or DVR them to watch later.

The game of the week is No. 7 Notre Dame at No. 3 Georgia at 8:00 on CBS. Who are you rooting for in that one? I’m going green.

Enjoy!

Full searchable college football TV schedule

Date Away Home Time TV
9/19/19 Houston Tulane 8:00 PM ESPN
9/20/19 Florida International Louisiana Tech 8:00 PM CBSSN
9/20/19 Utah USC 9:00 PM FS1
9/20/19 Air Force Boise State 9:00 PM ESPN2
9/21/19 Southern Mississippi Alabama 12:00 PM ESPN2
9/21/19 LSU Vanderbilt 12:00 PM SECN
9/21/19 Tennessee Florida 12:00 PM ESPN
9/21/19 Michigan Wisconsin 12:00 PM FOX
9/21/19 California Ole Miss 12:00 PM ESPNU
9/21/19 Western Michigan Syracuse 12:00 PM ACCN
9/21/19 Elon Wake Forest 12:00 PM ACCNX
9/21/19 Boston College Rutgers 12:00 PM BTN
9/21/19 UL Monroe Iowa State 12:00 PM FS1
9/21/19 UConn Indiana 12:00 PM BTN
9/21/19 Michigan State Northwestern 12:00 PM ABC
9/21/19 Morgan State Army 12:00 PM CBSSN
9/21/19 Coastal Carolina UMass 1:00 PM
9/21/19 Louisiana Ohio 2:00 PM ESPN+
9/21/19 Troy Akron 3:00 PM ESPN+
9/21/19 Central Connecticut Eastern Michigan 3:00 PM ESPN3
9/21/19 Miami (OH) Ohio State 3:30 PM BTN
9/21/19 Auburn Texas A&M 3:30 PM CBS
9/21/19 UCF Pittsburgh 3:30 PM ABC
9/21/19 Washington BYU 3:30 PM ABC
9/21/19 SMU TCU 3:30 PM FS1
9/21/19 Temple Buffalo 3:30 PM ESPNU
9/21/19 Bowling Green Kent State 3:30 PM ESPN3
9/21/19 Wyoming Tulsa 3:30 PM CBSSN
9/21/19 South Alabama UAB 3:30 PM NFL
9/21/19 Louisville Florida State 3:30 PM ESPN
9/21/19 Appalachian State North Carolina 3:30 PM ACCNX
9/21/19 Central Michigan Miami 4:00 PM ACCN
9/21/19 Kentucky Mississippi State 4:00 PM SECN
9/21/19 South Carolina Missouri 4:00 PM SECN
9/21/19 West Virginia Kansas 4:30 PM ESPN+
9/21/19 New Mexico State New Mexico 4:30 PM
9/21/19 Hampton Liberty 6:00 PM ESPN+
9/21/19 William & Mary East Carolina 6:00 PM ESPN3
9/21/19 Wagner Florida Atlantic 6:00 PM ESPN+
9/21/19 Oregon Stanford 7:00 PM ESPN
9/21/19 Old Dominion Virginia 7:00 PM ESPN2
9/21/19 Southern Illinois Arkansas State 7:00 PM ESPN3
9/21/19 Georgia State Texas State 7:00 PM ESPN+
9/21/19 Baylor Rice 7:00 PM CBSSN
9/21/19 Ball State NC State 7:00 PM ESPNU
9/21/19 Charlotte Clemson 7:30 PM ACCN
9/21/19 Oklahoma State Texas 7:30 PM ABC
9/21/19 San Jose State Arkansas 7:30 PM SECN
9/21/19 UTSA North Texas 7:30 PM
9/21/19 Notre Dame Georgia 8:00 PM CBS
9/21/19 Nevada UTEP 8:00 PM ESPN3
9/21/19 Nebraska Illinois 8:00 PM BTN
9/21/19 Colorado Arizona State 10:00 PM PAC12
9/21/19 Sacramento State Fresno State 10:00 PM
9/21/19 Toledo Colorado State 10:15 PM ESPN2
9/21/19 UCLA Washington State 10:30 PM ESPN
9/21/19 Utah State San Diego State 10:30 PM CBSSN
9/21/19 Central Arkansas Hawai'i 11:59 PM