Use the form below to calculate your expected win total for the rest of the season.
The GRT Expected Win Total Machine
My assessment
Even a day later, I’m still feeling like the Vols really weren’t even competitive against the Gators and that the evidence is insufficient at this time to support a belief that it’s going to get better any time soon. Ugh.
Meanwhile, Mississippi State and Missouri are looking better and better, while the other remaining opponents all look good enough to lose to. Bleck.
With this week’s adjustments, I now have an expected win total of . . . 2.9, which actually feels a bit high. I guess all of those 20 and 30 percents add up to a win I’m not exactly expecting. Hurl.
- Preseason: 6.55
- After Week 0: 6.6
- After Week 1: 2.87
- After Week 2: 2.37
- After Week 3: 3.65
- After Week 4: 2.9
Details: I have Alabama and Georgia both at 5%, Mississippi State and Missouri at 20%, South Carolina, Kentucky, and Vanderbilt at 30%, and UAB as a tossup. Ugh.
Here’s a table with my expectations this week:
Tennessee Volunteers currently
Current record: 1-3 (0-1), 4th in the SEC East
| Sat, Aug 31 | Lost to Georgia State, 30-38 |
| Sat, Sep 7 | Lost to BYU, 29-26 2OT |
| Sat, Sep 14 | Beat Chattanooga, 45-0 |
| Sat, Sep 21 | Lost @ No. 9 Florida, 34-3 |
| Sat, Oct 5 | Lost to No. 3 Georgia, 43-14 |
| Sat, Oct 12 | Beat Mississippi State, 20-10 |
| Sat, Oct 19 | Lost @ 1 Alabama, 35-13 |
| Sat, Oct 26 | Beat South Carolina, 41-21 |
| Sat, Nov 2 | Beat UAB, 30-7 |
| Sat, Nov 9 | Beat Kentucky, 17-13 |
| Sat, Nov 23 | Beat Missouri, 24-20 |
| Sat, Nov 30 | vs Vanderbilt |
The Vols’ past opponents
Georgia State Panthers
Current record: 2-2 (0-1), 5th in the Sun Belt East
| Sat, Aug 31 | Beat Tennessee, 38-30 |
| Sat, Sep 7 | Beat Furman, 48-42 |
| Sat, Sep 14 | Lost to Western Michigan, 57-10 |
| Sat, Sep 21 | Lost @ Texas State, 37-34 3OT |
| Sat, Oct 5 | Beat Arkansas State, 52-38 |
| Sat, Oct 12 | Beat Coastal Carolina, 31-21 |
| Sat, Oct 19 | Beat Army, 28-21 |
| Sat, Oct 26 | Beat Troy, 52-33 |
| Sat, Nov 9 | Lost @ UL Monroe, 45-31 |
| Sat, Nov 16 | Lost to No. 25 Appalachian State, 56-27 |
| Sat, Nov 23 | Beat South Alabama, 28-15 |
| Sat, Nov 30 | @ Georgia Southern |
BYU Cougars
Current record: 2-2 (0-0)
| Thu, Aug 29 | Lost to No. 14 Utah, 12-30 |
| Sat, Sep 7 | Beat Tennessee, 29-26 2OT |
| Sat, Sep 14 | Beat No. 24 USC, 30-27 OT |
| Sat, Sep 21 | Lost to No. 22 Washington, 45-19 |
| Sat, Sep 28 | Lost @ Toledo, 28-21 |
| Sat, Oct 12 | Lost @ South Florida, 27-23 |
| Sat, Oct 19 | Beat No. 14 Boise State, 28-25 |
| Sat, Nov 2 | Beat Utah State, 42-14 |
| Sat, Nov 9 | Beat Liberty, 31-24 |
| Sat, Nov 16 | Beat Idaho State, 42-10 |
| Sat, Nov 23 | Beat UMass, 56-24 |
| Sat, Nov 30 | @ San Diego State |
Chattanooga Mocs
Current record: 1-3 (0-0), 4th in the Southern Conference
| Thu, Aug 29 | Beat Eastern Illinois, 24-10 |
| Sat, Sep 7 | Lost to Jacksonville State, 41-20 |
| Sat, Sep 14 | Lost at Tennessee, 45-0 |
| Sat, Sep 21 | Lost to James Madison, 37-14 |
| Sat, Sep 28 | Beat Western Carolina, 60-36 |
| Sat, Oct 5 | Beat Mercer, 34-17 |
| Thu, Oct 17 | Beat East Tennessee State, 16-13 |
| Sat, Oct 26 | Lost @ Wofford, 35-34 OT |
| Sat, Nov 2 | Lost to Furman, 35-20 |
| Sat, Nov 9 | Beat Samford, 35-27 |
| Sat, Nov 16 | Beat The Citadel, 34-33 |
| Sat, Nov 23 | Lost to VMI, 31-24 |
Florida Gators
Current record: 4-0 (2-0), 1st in the SEC East
| Sat, Aug 24 | Beat Miami, 24-20 |
| Sat, Sep 7 | Beat UT Martin, 45-0 |
| Sat, Sep 14 | Beat Kentucky, 29-21 |
| Sat, Sep 21 | Beat Tennessee, 34-3 |
| Sat, Sep 28 | Beat Towson, 38-0 |
| Sat, Oct 5 | Beat No. 7 Auburn, 24-13 |
| Sat, Oct 12 | Lost @ No. 5 LSU, 42-28 |
| Sat, Oct 19 | Beat South Carolina, 38-27 |
| Sat, Nov 2 | Lost to No. 8 Georgia, 24-17 |
| Sat, Nov 9 | Beat Vanderbilt, 56-0 |
| Sat, Nov 16 | Beat Missouri, 23-6 |
| Sat, Nov 30 | vs Florida State |
The Vols’ future opponents
Georgia Bulldogs
Current record: 4-0 (1-0), 2nd in the SEC East
| Sat, Aug 31 | Beat Vanderbilt, 30-6 |
| Sat, Sep 7 | Beat Murray State, 63-17 |
| Sat, Sep 14 | Beat Arkansas State, 55-0 |
| Sat, Sep 21 | Beat No. 7 Notre Dame, 23-17 |
| Sat, Oct 5 | Beat Tennessee, 43-14 |
| Sat, Oct 12 | Lost to South Carolina, 20-17 2OT |
| Sat, Oct 19 | Beat Kentucky, 21-0 |
| Sat, Nov 2 | Beat No. 6 Florida, 24-17 |
| Sat, Nov 9 | Beat Missouri, 27-0 |
| Sat, Nov 16 | Beat No. 12 Auburn, 21-14 |
| Sat, Nov 23 | Beat Texas A&M, 19-13 |
| Sat, Nov 30 | @ Georgia Tech |
Tough game against Notre Dame, but these guys pulled it out and looked good doing it against the Fighting Irish. They’re going to be a real problem for the Vols.
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Current record: 3-1 (1-0), 1st in the SEC West
| Sat, Aug 31 | Beat Louisiana, 38-28 |
| Sat, Sep 7 | Beat Southern Mississippi, 38-15 |
| Sat, Sep 14 | Lost to Kansas State, 31-24 |
| Sat, Sep 21 | Beat Kentucky, 28-13 |
| Sat, Sep 28 | Lost @ No. 7 Auburn, 56-23 |
| Sat, Oct 12 | Lost @ Tennessee, 20-10 |
| Sat, Oct 19 | Lost to No. 2 LSU |
| Sat, Oct 26 | Lost @ Texas A&M, 49-30 |
| Sat, Nov 2 | Beat Arkansas, 54-24 |
| Sat, Nov 16 | Lost to No. 5 Alabama, 38-7 |
| Sat, Nov 23 | Beat Abilene Christian, 45-7 |
| Thu, Nov 28 | vs Ole Miss |
The Bulldogs looked good against Kentucky and made that loss to Kansas State look like a fluke. Kylin Hill is currently the SEC’s leading rusher. Ugh, this game’s looking tougher, even before you account for the Vols’ problems.
Alabama Crimson Tide
Current record: 4-0 (1-0), 1st in the SEC West
| Sat, Aug 31 | Beat Duke, 42-3 |
| Sat, Sep 7 | Beat New Mexico State, 62-10 |
| Sat, Sep 14 | Beat South Carolina, 47-23 |
| Sat, Sep 21 | Beat Southern Miss, 49-7 |
| Sat, Sep 28 | Beat Ole Miss, 59-31 |
| Sat, Oct 12 | Beat No. 24 Texas A&M, 47-28 |
| Sat, Oct 19 | Beat Tennessee, 35-13 |
| Sat, Oct 26 | Beat Arkansas, 48-7 |
| Sat, Nov 9 | Lost to No. 2 LSU, 46-41 |
| Sat, Nov 16 | Beat Mississippi State, 38-7 |
| Sat, Nov 23 | Beat Western Carolina, 66-3 |
| Sat, Nov 30 | @ No. 11 Auburn |
Machines.
South Carolina Gamecocks
Current record: 1-3 (0-2), 5th in the SEC East
| Sat, Aug 31 | Lost to North Carolina, 24-20 |
| Sat, Sep 7 | Beat Charleston Southern, 72-10 |
| Sat, Sep 14 | Lost to No. 2 Alabama, 47-23 |
| Sat, Sep 21 | Lost @ Missouri, 34-14 |
| Sat, Sep 28 | Beat Kentucky, 24-7 |
| Sat, Oct 12 | Beat No. 3 Georgia, 20-17 2OT |
| Sat, Oct 19 | Lost to No. 9 Florida, 38-27 |
| Sat, Oct 26 | Lost @ Tennessee, 41-21 |
| Sat, Nov 2 | Beat Vanderbilt, 24-7 |
| Sat, Nov 9 | Lost to Appalachian State, 20-15 |
| Sat, Nov 16 | Lost @ Texas A&M, 30-6 |
| Sat, Nov 30 | vs 4 Clemson |
Looked good against Alabama, but not so good against Missouri this week.
UAB Blazers
Current record: 3-0 (0-0), 3rd in C-USA West
| Thu, Aug 29 | Beat Alabama State, 24-19 |
| Sat, Sep 7 | Beat Akron, 31-20 |
| Sat, Sep 21 | Beat South Alabama, 35-3 |
| Sat, Sep 28 | Lost @ Western Kentucky, 20-13 |
| Sat, Oct 5 | Beat Rice, 35-20 |
| Sat, Oct 12 | Beat UTSA, 33-14 |
| Sat, Oct 19 | Beat Old Dominion, 38-14 |
| Sat, Nov 2 | Lost @ Tennessee, 30-7 |
| Sat, Nov 9 | Lost @ Southern Miss, 37-2 |
| Sat, Nov 16 | Beat UTEP, 37-10 |
| Sat, Nov 23 | Beat Louisiana Tech, 20-14 |
| Sat, Nov 30 | @ North Texas |
Nobody schedule, but 3-0.
Kentucky Wildcats
Current record: 2-2 (0-2), 5th in the SEC East
| Sat, Aug 31 | Beat Toledo, 38-24 |
| Sat, Sep 7 | Beat Eastern Michigan, 38-17 |
| Sat, Sep 14 | Lost to No. 8 Florida, 29-21 |
| Sat, Sep 21 | Lost @ Mississippi State, 28-13 |
| Sat, Sep 28 | Lost @ South Carolina, 24-7 |
| Sat, Oct 12 | Beat Arkansas, 24-20 |
| Sat, Oct 19 | Lost to No. 10 Georgia, 21-0 |
| Sat, Oct 26 | Beat Missouri, 29-7 |
| Sat, Nov 9 | Lost to Tennessee, 17-13 |
| Sat, Nov 16 | Beat Vanderbilt, 38-14 |
| Sat, Nov 23 | Beat UT Martin, 50-7 |
| Sat, Nov 30 | vs Louisville |
Missouri Tigers
Current record: 3-1 (1-0), 2nd in the SEC East
| Sat, Aug 31 | Lost to Wyoming, 37-31 |
| Sat, Sep 7 | Beat West Virginia, 38-7 |
| Sat, Sep 14 | Beat Southeast Missouri State, 50-0 |
| Sat, Sep 21 | Beat South Carolina, 34-14 |
| Sat, Oct 5 | Beat Troy, 42-10 |
| Sat, Oct 12 | Beat Ole Miss, 38-27 |
| Sat, Oct 19 | Lost to Vanderbilt, 21-14 |
| Sat, Oct 26 | Lost @ Kentucky, 29-7 |
| Sat, Nov 9 | Lost @ No. 6 Georgia, 27-0 |
| Sat, Nov 16 | Lost to No. 11 Florida, 23-6 |
| Sat, Nov 23 | Lost to Tennessee, 24-20 |
| Fri, Nov 29 | @ Arkansas |
Season-opening loss to Wyoming looking more and more like an anomaly.
Vanderbilt Commodores
Current record: 0-3 (0-2), 5th in the SEC East
| Sat, Aug 31 | Lost to No. 3 Georgia, 30-6 |
| Sat, Sep 7 | Lost to Purdue, 42-24 |
| Sat, Sep 21 | Lost to No. 4 LSU, 66-38 |
| Sat, Sep 28 | Beat Northern Illinois, 24-18 |
| Sat, Oct 5 | Lost to Ole Miss, 31-6 |
| Sat, Oct 12 | Lost to UNLV, 34-10 |
| Sat, Oct 19 | Beat No. 22 Missouri, 21-14 |
| Sat, Nov 2 | Lost @ South Carolina, 24-7 |
| Sat, Nov 9 | Lost @ No. 10 Florida, 56-0 |
| Sat, Nov 16 | Lost to Kentucky, 38-14 |
| Sat, Nov 23 | Beat ETSU, 38-0 |
| Sat, Nov 30 | @ Tennessee |
Not looking good, but playing two Top 5 teams to begin the season will do that.
What about you? Where are your expectations for the Vols now?
Down from 4 wins last week to 3 wins this week… sssssigh. Go Vols!
I’m at 3.51. This “feels” right, whatever that’s worth: beat UAB and then get one, maybe two of the non-UGA/Bama games.
2.37. I’ll take the Under. We destroyed our best chance in decades for a winless season with the slip up at UTC.
3.17….seems about right.
July 25, 2019 (pre-season): 5.96
August 26, 2019 (after “Week Zero”): 5.92
September 3, 2019 (post-Georgia St.): 3.86
September 9, 2019 (post-BYU): 3.09
September 16, 2019 (post-Chattanooga): 3.61
September 24, 2019 (post-Florida): 2.71
So much for progress.
This is really kind of unbelievable in Year 2.