Category Archives: Football

Last week, off a 10-point win over Mississippi State and with increasing confidence Brian Maurer would play against Alabama, our community Expected Win Total was 4.82. This week, off a tantalizing what-if at Alabama but with decreasing confidence Maurer will play against South Carolina, our community win total is…4.81.

Maurer’s uncertain status is keeping us from the best versions of the Alabama game, both the ones where we might’ve actually won it, and the ones where the Vols still parlay what actually happened into a momentum-solidifying win over South Carolina and better odds at bowl eligibility. To be clear, Tennessee will still have plenty of opportunity to win this game. But if we’re looking for landmarks, this week feels like a detour.

Maybe it’ll be J.T. Shrout in his first career start. Maybe it’ll be Jarrett Guarantano. And if it is JG and you’re there tomorrow, we’d echo what I hope will be the majority: it’s not in anyone’s best interests for you to boo that kid. I’d go one more: if it’s Guarantano, cheer for him. Loudly. On purpose. Don’t tell yourself you won’t boo him in pregame but save it for his first mistake and think it was charitable. After everything we’ve seen, including and especially last Saturday’s scenario at the goal line, I think we can say for sure that if he’s playing it’s because he really, truly still represents Tennessee’s best chance to win. And he might. If so, get behind him.

Whether it’s Shrout or Guarantano, Tennessee is likely to rely on its ground game and its defense to beat South Carolina for the first time since 2015 and Will Muschamp for the first time period. That would’ve seemed like an impossibility a month ago, but Tennessee’s improvement on the offensive line and throughout its defense is significant enough to both ask the question and hope for the right answer.

We’ve seen the Vols go run-heavy in Maurer’s absence against Mississippi State and Alabama. We’ve also seen it against BYU, especially after Guarantano’s third quarter interception. Since I don’t anticipate Guarantano or Shrout giving Tennessee much with their legs the way Maurer has, here’s what Tennessee’s running backs did in those three “here comes the run” games:

No surprise, the more you know it’s coming, the better you are at stopping it. Tennessee was able to beat Mississippi State running three out of four snaps. And the Vols were trending that direction against the Cougars; we remember the two fourth-and-one stops, and rightfully so, but Tennessee really ran the ball well all day against BYU.

South Carolina is 58th nationally in yards per carry allowed at 3.99. The closest comparison is…Tennessee, 57th nationally at 3.98. North Carolina beat them in the opener in a version of here comes the run: 52 carries for 238 yards (4.6 ypc), running the ball 68.4% of the time. The Gamecocks worked to take the ground game away from Alabama (25 carries for 76 yards), but Bama simply shifted to Tua and finished with 39 passing attempts and 47 points. Against Georgia, South Carolina survived 113 yards at 4.9 per carry from D’Andre Swift by getting three interceptions off Jake Fromm. They’d take that against Tennessee too, I’m sure.

Can Tennessee run it well enough against this defense when they know it’s coming, and not ask Shrout or Guarantano to do too much? A lot of that answer depends on Tennessee’s defense.

The Vol defense is 42nd in SP+ right now, a nice improvement after finishing 72nd last season and losing all of its defensive linemen. What seems comfortable to say at this point after watching the Vols against BYU, Mississippi State, and Alabama post-Tua: if your quarterback is average or below, this defense will make you pay.

Where does Ryan Hilinski fall on that scale?

Take out the Charleston Southern game, and Hilinski has struggled in yards per attempt. Against FBS competition he’s 96-of-169 (56.8%) 916 yards (5.4 ypa) with five touchdowns and only two interceptions. Clearly, he’s doing enough to give South Carolina a chance, and the Gamecocks cashed it in against Georgia (and have reason to be upset about Florida). But like Tennessee, the coaching staff isn’t putting the game on the shoulders of its quarterback.

If Tennessee can make this game follow the script from BYU and Mississippi State, they’ll have their chances. Hilinski hasn’t been in the mood to throw interceptions the way the Bulldogs were. The over/under here is 47.5, so Vegas expects something like South Carolina 26-21. If the Gamecocks get to 26, I’m not sure that’s good news for Tennessee.

I’d expect some version of what we saw in this game last time it was played in Knoxville in Guarantano’s first career start, even with a different coaching staff. The Vols ran the ball 39 times at 3.1 ypc, attempted 19 passes with a handful coming on the final drive, and lost 15-9 because they settled for three field goals and couldn’t punch it in from inside the five in the final seconds. Tennessee will need to win ugly this week. But our ugly is looking better and better these days. Will it look good enough for victory?

Go Vols.

Tennessee opened with some non-Vegas online sites as a 1-point favorite over the Gamecocks, but that line quickly moved to South Carolina -4 when the Vegas lines opened at that number. As of this morning, it is between -4 and -4.5. Will the Vols cover against South Carolina?

The SPM’s performance so far in 2019

The SPM did extremely well last week, going 39-22 (63.93%) on all games. Over our confidence threshold, it was 16-5 (76.19%), and in our pre-defined favorites range, it went 12-3 (80%). That’s now three weeks in a row for which it was 55%+ overall.

That three-week stretch has finally gotten the SPM over the hump, as it now sits at 198-187 (51.43%) overall, 90-69 (56.60%) over the confidence threshold, and 49-27 (64.47%) in our favorites range.

Fortunately for Vols fans, the SPM is now 0-2 in Tennessee games the past two weeks, and got the Alabama game wrong last week. We’ll take that.

So what does the SPM have to say about the Tennessee-South Carolina game? Let’s have a look.

Vols-Gamecocks

From the perspective of Tennessee

Tennessee points:

• Tennessee scoring offense for the season: 21.6
• South Carolina scoring defense for the season: 25.3

The South Carolina scoring defense is most similar to the following prior Tennessee opponent(s) (FBS only):

• Mississippi State 28.4
• BYU 29.7

Against BYU, Tennessee scored 26 points, and against Mississippi State, they scored 20 points. So, against the two best comps, Tennessee is scoring 79% of what those teams usually give up, making the SPM’s estimated points for Tennessee against South Carolina 20.

South Carolina points:

• Tennessee scoring defense for the season: 27
• South Carolina scoring offense for the season: 28.6

The South Carolina scoring offense is most similar to the following prior Tennessee opponent(s):

• Mississippi State 24.9
• Florida 32.5

Against Florida, Tennessee allowed 34 points, and against Mississippi State, Tennessee allowed 10 points, which means that Tennessee allowed 77% of what those teams usually score. Thus, the SPM estimates 22 points for South Carolina against Tennessee.

Estimated score: Tennessee 20, South Carolina 22

From the perspective of South Carolina

South Carolina points:

• South Carolina scoring offense for the season: 28.6
• Tennessee scoring defense for the season: 27

The Tennessee scoring defense is most similar to the following prior South Carolina opponent(s) (FBS only):

• North Carolina 27
• Kentucky 23.3

South Carolina scored 24 points against Kentucky and 20 points against North Carolina, which is 88% of what those teams usually give up. So, the SPM estimates 23.8 points for South Carolina against Tennessee.

Tennessee points:

• South Carolina scoring defense for the season: 25.3
• Tennessee scoring offense for the season: 21.6

The Tennessee scoring offense is most similar to the following prior South Carolina opponent(s):

• Kentucky 20.1
• North Carolina 28.6

Kentucky got 7 points against South Carolina and North Carolina got 24. So, against the two best comps, South Carolina allowed only 64% of what those teams usually score. Based on that, the SPM estimates 13.8 points for Tennessee against South Carolina.

Estimated score: South Carolina 23.8, Tennessee 13.8

SPM Final Estimates

When you throw all of that in the stew and crank up the heat, here’s what’s for dinner:

SPM Final estimated score: Tennessee 16.9, South Carolina 22.9

SPM Final estimated spread: South Carolina -6

SPM Confidence level (difference from the opening spread): 7

That confidence level of 7 is just under the range that the SPM favors the most this season, meaning this is not one of its favorite picks this week. Which is fine, because it doesn’t understand Tennessee when it comes to the spread.

Eyeball adjustments

The one thing I’m raising my eyebrows at is South Carolina’s estimated points from Tennessee’s perspective. The comps there are Mississippi State and Florida, and the results from Tennessee’s defense against those teams is wildly divergent. Florida got 34, but Mississippi State got only 10. So, when you combine those, it’s 77% of what those teams usually score. But I think Tennessee’s defense today is more like the one that held Mississippi State to 10 than the one that let Florida get 34, so if you look only at Mississippi State, the Vols allowed them only 40% of what they usually get. The defense is getting better each week, and the SPM is lagging behind. 40% of what the Gamecocks usually score is only 11.5 points.

Bottom line, I’m thinking/hoping that the SPM’s estimation of points for South Carolina is too high. To me, this is a true toss-up game, although if there’s a slight advantage, it belongs to South Carolina.

So, my eyeball-adjusted prediction is South Carolina 20, Tennessee 17. I don’t think the Vols cover the opening online spread of Tennessee -1, but I do think they cover the current Vegas spread of South Carolina -4.

Other predictions from other systems

As previously mentioned, the online sites opened with Tennessee a 1-point favorite, while Vegas opened with South Carolina a 4-point favorite. The consensus right now among both the online sites and Vegas is SC -4 to -4.5. The over/under of 47 to 47.5 translates to something around South Carolina 26, Tennessee 22.

ESPN’s FPI gives the Vols a 38.8% chance of winning.

Bill Connelly’s SP+ likes South Carolina 26-22, and gives the Vols a 43% chance of winning. That’s basically bosom buddies with Vegas.

SP+ has been on a tear all season, but it’s cooled off just a bit recently, especially this past week. According to Bill’s Twitter timeline, SP+ went 30-31 (49%) last week but is still at an impressive 55% for the season.

As I said earlier, our SPM has been lagging behind SP+ much of the season, but a 39-22 (63.93%) record last week took a big chunk out of the gap. It’s now 198-187 (51.43%) on the season and 49-27 (64.47%) in our favored range.

Bottom line

The SPM does not like the Vols to cover either the opening online spread or the current spread, and I agree on the opening spread but disagree on the current.

What do y’all think?

The Vols kick off against South Carolina at 4:00 p.m. this Saturday on the SEC Network, but there are several other games worth watching this week as well. Here’s when and where to find those games, along with some suggestions on how and why to watch them.

First up is the list curated just for Vols fans. The full schedule follows that.

Thursday, October 24, 2019

Friday, October 25, 2019

Gameday, October 26, 2019

At noon, No. 13 Wisconsin heads to No. 3 Ohio State on Fox. The afternoon slot is home to the Vols-Gamecocks game — at 4:00 on the SEC Network — but there is also a huge Top 10 SEC matchup between No. 9 Auburn and No. 2 LSU on CBS, so DVR that for later.

In the evening, two future Vols opponents face off against each other when Missouri and Kentucky meet at 7:30 on the SEC Network. There’s also the national game of the night between No. 8 Notre Dame and No. 19 Michigan at the same time on ABC.

Enjoy!

Full searchable college football TV schedule

Below is a look at Tennessee’s national stat rankings side-by-side with the corollary rankings for the South Carolina Gamecocks. The nutshell is that the run game is going to be extremely important for both teams, and the Gamecocks appear to have the advantage there on both sides of the ball.

Details below.

When the Vols have the ball

Where’s the opportunity?

South Carolina’s defensive resume is more impressive than Tennessee’s offensive resume, almost across the board. The only things that are sort of even matchups are third downs and passing yards.

Where’s the danger?

Throwing the ball against South Carolina appears to be a huge risk for the Vols. Tennessee ranks 109th in interceptions thrown, and the Gamecocks rank 11th in getting interceptions. They’re also much better in most other categories.

Gameplan for the Vols on offense

Run the ball. It’s the safest strategy. There are opportunities in the passing game, but there are also great risks.

Vols on defense

Where’s the opportunity?

The opportunities for the Vols on defense are found in the passing game. The Gamecocks are not generally earning many yards through the air, nor are they especially efficient or careful, and Tennessee is generally good on the opposite sides of all of those things. The Vols also appear to be in pretty good shape across the board on defense, with the exception of a couple of categories.

Where’s the danger?

The worst combination of them being good on offense and the Vols being vulnerable on defense is found in the run game. South Carolina ranks 36th in rushing yards per game, and the Vols rank only 67th in rushing yards allowed per game.

Gameplan for the Vols on defense

Devote more manpower to stopping the run.

Special teams

There’s an opportunity for the Vols on special teams, especially when returning punts, as they currently rank 9th in the nation while the Gamecocks rank 108th in the nation at defending punt returns. On the other hand, their punter can flip the field better than ours can.

Turnovers and penalties

Tennessee and South Carolina look pretty even in turnovers and penalties.

Generally speaking, a team’s national stat rankings don’t improve after playing the No. 1 team in the nation, so you don’t pull these up hoping to see some evidence of improvement. But let’s take a peek anyway.

Offense

Climbed out of the Bottom 30: Nothing.

Climbed into the Top 30: Nothing.

Fell into the Bottom 30: Passing Offense, but note that it joins seven other offensive categories already there.

Fell out of the Top 30: Passing Yards per Completion.

I like fall colors and all, but I’d rather not see it on my stat tables.

Defense

Climbed out of the Bottom 30: Nothing.

Climbed into the Top 30: Nothing.

Fell into the Bottom 30: Nothing.

Fell out of the Top 30: Nothing.

No movement in and out of general locations here this week, which is good news after playing a team with Alabama’s offensive firepower. Honestly, the Tennessee defense pretty much held its own.

Special Teams

Last week, I pointed out that there had been no red in this entire category since the BYU game. This week, there are three categories in the red: Kickoff Returns, Net Punting, and Punt Return Defense.

Turnovers and Penalties

Tennessee binged on penalties this week like they were coming off a 6-game fast, although they were force-fed some of that by servers in stripes.

In the off-season we do a series on Making Progress, on how the Vols can improve on the things they were very worst at in the previous year. Seven games into this season, Tennessee is moving in the right direction on most of those fronts:

• Running on third-and-short was the thing Tennessee was very worst at last season: 21 carries for 20 yards, the only team in college football to average less than 1.5 yards per carry (and the Vols averaged 0.95 yards per carry). It hasn’t gone from the basement to the penthouse, as you’d expect, but this year the Vols have 20 carries on 3rd-and-1-3 for 44 yards (2.20 ypc) and 13 first downs. Tennessee no longer has to go shotgun and hope for the best. (Stats via SportSource Analytics)
• Last year Tennessee ran fewer plays than any team in college football. This year the Vols are 116th of 130 in that department; they’re ahead of just five teams that have played seven games, and do have a handful of overtime snaps. Keep an eye on this number as the Vols enter a more winnable stretch of their season.
• Last season the Vols forced only 15 turnovers. Through seven games this year, Tennessee already has 13. Five against Chattanooga helped, but the Vols also had three against Florida and, more crucially, three against Mississippi State.
• In the massive improvement department: last year the Vols allowed opponents to score 41 times in 45 red zone visits, 120th nationally. So far this year opponents are just 25-of-32 (78.13%), 35th nationally. It’s bolstered by Chattanooga going 0-for-3 (which is still impressive), but the Vols also turned away Mississippi State once and intercepted Alabama.
• One area the Vols are yet to improve: explosive running plays. Last season Tennessee had 49 runs of 10+ yards, 116th nationally. Through seven games this season the Vols have 24 runs of 10+ yards, 115th nationally. Let’s see how that number improves when not facing Florida, Georgia, and Alabama.

Tennessee is better on a number of fronts, including the kind of significant improvement in turnovers and red zone defense that suggest a big difference on the scoreboard. What’s keeping that from happening?

Red zone offense.

In 24 red zone trips this season, Tennessee has only 10 touchdowns. That’s 41.67%, 124th nationally and one of just 16 teams scoring a touchdown less than 50% of the time they enter the red zone.

Here’s each of Tennessee’s 24 red zone possessions:

A word of praise is due Brent Cimaglia. Nine kickers with 7+ attempts have yet to miss a field goal this season. After those nine, no one has been better than Cimaglia’s 13-of-14 (92.9%). He made what were important kicks in the moment against Georgia State and BYU, gave Tennessee its first points at Florida, gave the Vols a two-possession lead against Mississippi State, and gave Tennessee a chance at Alabama. Perhaps we expect kickers to go 8-for-8 on attempts of 40 yards or less, but that’s usually not the exact result.

There’s enough bad to spread around on the red zone turnovers: Maurer’s two picks against Mississippi State, a ball Jauan Jennings should’ve caught at Florida, and Guarantano’s poor choice on Saturday night. Whatever it’s worth, JG also failed to get the backups in on four tries from the five yard line against Georgia’s backups. And Eric Gray was stuffed on an important early sequence against BYU, foreshadowing the end-around stop just outside the red zone later in the game.

Tennessee’s struggles at the doorstep have been particularly painful. At the end of the first half against Georgia State the Vols had two shots from the three yard line but couldn’t get in. Early in the fourth quarter the Vols had 3rd-and-2 at the Georgia State 14, but a pass to Austin Pope went for no gain and the Vols settled for three to take a 23-21 lead. Aside from the fourth down stops, against BYU the Vols also had 1st-and-Goal at the 9 early in the fourth quarter with a chance to take a two-possession lead up 13-10, but had to kick a field goal.

The interception at Florida was obviously painful, but with only two red zone visits I’m not sure Tennessee is winning that game either way. But what happened at Alabama was a microcosm of this problem before the Guarantano fumble. On the drive when Maurer was injured, the Vols had 1st-and-Goal at the 5 and went false start, no gain, holding, incomplete, then Guarantano missed Jennings on the double move. The other sequence was more about officiating, when 1st-and-Goal at the 7 led to a phantom holding penalty and then a missed pass interference call. But against Alabama, the Vols were so close to doing something really special on three separate drives, then went field goal, field goal, disaster.

So here’s some good news: on drives Brian Maurer finished, you do of course have a pair of end zone interceptions against Mississippi State, which we’re chalking up to some combination of freshman mistakes and a concussion. But the other red zone trips led by Maurer: a touchdown to open the third quarter against Chattanooga, the only points of the day at Florida (on a drive that reached only the 20), an A+ touchdown throw against Georgia, Tim Jordan’s touchdown run against Mississippi State, and a QB sneak touchdown at Alabama. In Maurer’s seven red zone drives, the Vols have four touchdowns, the field goal at Florida, and the two picks against Mississippi State. Obviously, you can’t throw picks in the end zone. But the other results have been good, including that throw against Georgia which is the best individual play Tennessee has made in the red zone this season and perhaps beyond. It’s a small sample size: Maurer is 1-of-6 in the red zone this year, the one being that touchdown, with two of the five incompletions being those interceptions. But Guarantano is 9-of-24 for 79 yards with five touchdowns and the interception at Florida. Those five touchdowns include the last-second TD against Georgia State, the batted-ball against BYU, the overtime TD catch by Jennings, and two scores against Chattanooga. When the windows get tight, everyone has struggled. Guarantano was better here last year too: 14-of-23 for 111 yards in the red zone, with seven touchdowns and, importantly, zero interceptions.

Everything is on the table, but if you’re going to expect anything in these next five games, I’d lean toward close calls. That means all of these red zone trips are going to count. And the Vols, who traded a chance for something special into Alabama’s spectacular last week, have to put the ball in the end zone more often. If Maurer comes back, can he continue this trend? If it’s Shrout, can he learn on the fly? And if it’s Guarantano, can he recover from everything he’s faced this season and get this team in the end zone?