Category Archives: Football

I love it.

In November of 2016, with the defense depleted by injury and the Vols still in the hunt for the SEC East and the Sugar Bowl, Butch Jones and Mike DeBord went full throttle on offense. The result was the best offense in college football in yards per play in November at 8.96, with all four games featuring offensive performances better than 7.70 yards per play. (Stats via SportSource Analytics)

I point that out because today, the Vols had 485 yards of offense at 7.13 yards per play. Other than in November of 2016, 7.13 yards per play is the best a Tennessee offense has done against a power five team this decade.

Not the first two months of 2016. Not the 2015 team that was a few plays away from a shot at the College Football Playoff. Not Josh Dobbs’ coming out party at South Carolina in 2014. And nothing Tyler Bray and friends did against power five competition in 2012.

Fittingly, you have to go back to Jonathan Crompton against Georgia in 2009 (7.38 yards per play). That’s the most unlikely performance from a Tennessee quarterback I’ve ever seen. Today might be number two.

It’s quarterbacks, plural. Jauan Jennings will live forever in Knoxville. Clearly not content with already having the two most memorable plays of the entire decade, Jennings’ legend now belongs to his entire career. I’m not sure how much more we’ll see him in the wildcat this season – let’s see who’s healthy and who’s not – but if you’re looking for the embodiment of giving one’s all for Tennessee, it’s #15.

We’ve been waiting all year for Jarrett Guarantano to have a Jonathan Crompton moment. It took a minute. The Vols again failed to put the ball in the end zone on an early red zone visit, but atoned via Marquez Callaway’s punt return. When a long South Carolina drive ended in a touchdown after multiple attempts from the one, the Vols were down 14-10 with three minutes left before halftime. Maybe the circumstances were right, maybe last week helped him more than hurt him, maybe who knows. But Guarantano uncorked two completions to Jennings for 75 yards and a score. And after South Carolina punched in a quick score to take a 21-17 halftime lead, Guarantano came out in the third quarter with a 48-yard strike to Marquez Callaway.

Brent Cimaglia missed the ensuing field goal, Tennessee’s surest thing failing them. The Gamecocks had the ball and the lead. The oh-no’s were creeping.

Then the defense produced what would be the first of four second half three-and-outs. And Guarantano responded with 22 yards to Josh Palmer, eight more to Palmer, and a 19-yard teardrop to Jennings for six.

Guarantano was injured on the play, and did not return. Let’s hope it’s not his last throw in a Tennessee uniform – the opposite of what some of us were saying after his last snap last week – but no play summed up his career more than this one: third-and-long, stands in and takes a huge shot, and delivers a big play downfield.

UPDATE:

Without JG, the Vols went back to J.T. Shrout. Jim Chaney went wildcat with Jennings, Shrout to Palmer to nine, wildcat with Jennings, and then Shrout to Marquez Callaway for 55 yards wait what

Shrout later attempted four straight passes on the drive that extended the lead with a Cimaglia field goal. Chaney stayed aggressive and it worked like a charm. Shrout – the third-string quarterback – finished 7-of-11 for 122 yards and a touchdown, no picks. If you’ll recall before Brian Maurer’s first start, the first start as mid-season replacements for JG, Dobbs, Peterman, and Worley all yieled zero touchdowns. Maurer, check. Shrout, check. I tweeted this during the game, but that QB competition next spring is going to be all kinds of fun.

But suddenly, there’s plenty of fun to go around in present day too.

Did I mention South Carolina scored on the first play of the game? Or Daniel Bituli’s 14174 tackles? Or that Tennessee’s quarterbacks – neither of them Brian Maurer – combined to go 18-of-30 for 351 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions wait what

So, okay. We’ll fire up the expected win total machine on Monday after we’re done celebrating and not apt to pick the Vols at 100% to sweep November. It felt like there could not possibly be a trap game for the Vols in the next five years after losing to Georgia State, but LOOK OUT, here comes 6-1 UAB off a bye week! It’s a trap!

Any corners turned this season must be seen only in hindsight after our September. But these Vols gave themselves the opportunity to look back at the end of this season and point to the month of October: the early promise against Georgia, the precision against Mississippi State, the unexpected pain of coming close at Alabama, and now the passion and power of a night like tonight.

And if you keep looking around at other year twos, there aren’t that many nights like tonight.

What was lost can always be found. The Vols have given themselves a chance to save their season, and may have found themselves along the way. We’ll see if they can indeed get it all the way home.

But tonight, it’s chicken for dinner, any way you like it.

Go Vols.

Last week, off a 10-point win over Mississippi State and with increasing confidence Brian Maurer would play against Alabama, our community Expected Win Total was 4.82. This week, off a tantalizing what-if at Alabama but with decreasing confidence Maurer will play against South Carolina, our community win total is…4.81.

Maurer’s uncertain status is keeping us from the best versions of the Alabama game, both the ones where we might’ve actually won it, and the ones where the Vols still parlay what actually happened into a momentum-solidifying win over South Carolina and better odds at bowl eligibility. To be clear, Tennessee will still have plenty of opportunity to win this game. But if we’re looking for landmarks, this week feels like a detour.

Maybe it’ll be J.T. Shrout in his first career start. Maybe it’ll be Jarrett Guarantano. And if it is JG and you’re there tomorrow, we’d echo what I hope will be the majority: it’s not in anyone’s best interests for you to boo that kid. I’d go one more: if it’s Guarantano, cheer for him. Loudly. On purpose. Don’t tell yourself you won’t boo him in pregame but save it for his first mistake and think it was charitable. After everything we’ve seen, including and especially last Saturday’s scenario at the goal line, I think we can say for sure that if he’s playing it’s because he really, truly still represents Tennessee’s best chance to win. And he might. If so, get behind him.

Whether it’s Shrout or Guarantano, Tennessee is likely to rely on its ground game and its defense to beat South Carolina for the first time since 2015 and Will Muschamp for the first time period. That would’ve seemed like an impossibility a month ago, but Tennessee’s improvement on the offensive line and throughout its defense is significant enough to both ask the question and hope for the right answer.

We’ve seen the Vols go run-heavy in Maurer’s absence against Mississippi State and Alabama. We’ve also seen it against BYU, especially after Guarantano’s third quarter interception. Since I don’t anticipate Guarantano or Shrout giving Tennessee much with their legs the way Maurer has, here’s what Tennessee’s running backs did in those three “here comes the run” games:

No surprise, the more you know it’s coming, the better you are at stopping it. Tennessee was able to beat Mississippi State running three out of four snaps. And the Vols were trending that direction against the Cougars; we remember the two fourth-and-one stops, and rightfully so, but Tennessee really ran the ball well all day against BYU.

South Carolina is 58th nationally in yards per carry allowed at 3.99. The closest comparison is…Tennessee, 57th nationally at 3.98. North Carolina beat them in the opener in a version of here comes the run: 52 carries for 238 yards (4.6 ypc), running the ball 68.4% of the time. The Gamecocks worked to take the ground game away from Alabama (25 carries for 76 yards), but Bama simply shifted to Tua and finished with 39 passing attempts and 47 points. Against Georgia, South Carolina survived 113 yards at 4.9 per carry from D’Andre Swift by getting three interceptions off Jake Fromm. They’d take that against Tennessee too, I’m sure.

Can Tennessee run it well enough against this defense when they know it’s coming, and not ask Shrout or Guarantano to do too much? A lot of that answer depends on Tennessee’s defense.

The Vol defense is 42nd in SP+ right now, a nice improvement after finishing 72nd last season and losing all of its defensive linemen. What seems comfortable to say at this point after watching the Vols against BYU, Mississippi State, and Alabama post-Tua: if your quarterback is average or below, this defense will make you pay.

Where does Ryan Hilinski fall on that scale?

Take out the Charleston Southern game, and Hilinski has struggled in yards per attempt. Against FBS competition he’s 96-of-169 (56.8%) 916 yards (5.4 ypa) with five touchdowns and only two interceptions. Clearly, he’s doing enough to give South Carolina a chance, and the Gamecocks cashed it in against Georgia (and have reason to be upset about Florida). But like Tennessee, the coaching staff isn’t putting the game on the shoulders of its quarterback.

If Tennessee can make this game follow the script from BYU and Mississippi State, they’ll have their chances. Hilinski hasn’t been in the mood to throw interceptions the way the Bulldogs were. The over/under here is 47.5, so Vegas expects something like South Carolina 26-21. If the Gamecocks get to 26, I’m not sure that’s good news for Tennessee.

I’d expect some version of what we saw in this game last time it was played in Knoxville in Guarantano’s first career start, even with a different coaching staff. The Vols ran the ball 39 times at 3.1 ypc, attempted 19 passes with a handful coming on the final drive, and lost 15-9 because they settled for three field goals and couldn’t punch it in from inside the five in the final seconds. Tennessee will need to win ugly this week. But our ugly is looking better and better these days. Will it look good enough for victory?

Go Vols.

Tennessee opened with some non-Vegas online sites as a 1-point favorite over the Gamecocks, but that line quickly moved to South Carolina -4 when the Vegas lines opened at that number. As of this morning, it is between -4 and -4.5. Will the Vols cover against South Carolina?

The SPM’s performance so far in 2019

The SPM did extremely well last week, going 39-22 (63.93%) on all games. Over our confidence threshold, it was 16-5 (76.19%), and in our pre-defined favorites range, it went 12-3 (80%). That’s now three weeks in a row for which it was 55%+ overall.

That three-week stretch has finally gotten the SPM over the hump, as it now sits at 198-187 (51.43%) overall, 90-69 (56.60%) over the confidence threshold, and 49-27 (64.47%) in our favorites range.

Fortunately for Vols fans, the SPM is now 0-2 in Tennessee games the past two weeks, and got the Alabama game wrong last week. We’ll take that.

So what does the SPM have to say about the Tennessee-South Carolina game? Let’s have a look.

Vols-Gamecocks

From the perspective of Tennessee

Tennessee points:

• Tennessee scoring offense for the season: 21.6
• South Carolina scoring defense for the season: 25.3

The South Carolina scoring defense is most similar to the following prior Tennessee opponent(s) (FBS only):

• Mississippi State 28.4
• BYU 29.7

Against BYU, Tennessee scored 26 points, and against Mississippi State, they scored 20 points. So, against the two best comps, Tennessee is scoring 79% of what those teams usually give up, making the SPM’s estimated points for Tennessee against South Carolina 20.

South Carolina points:

• Tennessee scoring defense for the season: 27
• South Carolina scoring offense for the season: 28.6

The South Carolina scoring offense is most similar to the following prior Tennessee opponent(s):

• Mississippi State 24.9
• Florida 32.5

Against Florida, Tennessee allowed 34 points, and against Mississippi State, Tennessee allowed 10 points, which means that Tennessee allowed 77% of what those teams usually score. Thus, the SPM estimates 22 points for South Carolina against Tennessee.

Estimated score: Tennessee 20, South Carolina 22

From the perspective of South Carolina

South Carolina points:

• South Carolina scoring offense for the season: 28.6
• Tennessee scoring defense for the season: 27

The Tennessee scoring defense is most similar to the following prior South Carolina opponent(s) (FBS only):

• North Carolina 27
• Kentucky 23.3

South Carolina scored 24 points against Kentucky and 20 points against North Carolina, which is 88% of what those teams usually give up. So, the SPM estimates 23.8 points for South Carolina against Tennessee.

Tennessee points:

• South Carolina scoring defense for the season: 25.3
• Tennessee scoring offense for the season: 21.6

The Tennessee scoring offense is most similar to the following prior South Carolina opponent(s):

• Kentucky 20.1
• North Carolina 28.6

Kentucky got 7 points against South Carolina and North Carolina got 24. So, against the two best comps, South Carolina allowed only 64% of what those teams usually score. Based on that, the SPM estimates 13.8 points for Tennessee against South Carolina.

Estimated score: South Carolina 23.8, Tennessee 13.8

SPM Final Estimates

When you throw all of that in the stew and crank up the heat, here’s what’s for dinner:

SPM Final estimated score: Tennessee 16.9, South Carolina 22.9

SPM Final estimated spread: South Carolina -6

SPM Confidence level (difference from the opening spread): 7

That confidence level of 7 is just under the range that the SPM favors the most this season, meaning this is not one of its favorite picks this week. Which is fine, because it doesn’t understand Tennessee when it comes to the spread.

Eyeball adjustments

The one thing I’m raising my eyebrows at is South Carolina’s estimated points from Tennessee’s perspective. The comps there are Mississippi State and Florida, and the results from Tennessee’s defense against those teams is wildly divergent. Florida got 34, but Mississippi State got only 10. So, when you combine those, it’s 77% of what those teams usually score. But I think Tennessee’s defense today is more like the one that held Mississippi State to 10 than the one that let Florida get 34, so if you look only at Mississippi State, the Vols allowed them only 40% of what they usually get. The defense is getting better each week, and the SPM is lagging behind. 40% of what the Gamecocks usually score is only 11.5 points.

Bottom line, I’m thinking/hoping that the SPM’s estimation of points for South Carolina is too high. To me, this is a true toss-up game, although if there’s a slight advantage, it belongs to South Carolina.

So, my eyeball-adjusted prediction is South Carolina 20, Tennessee 17. I don’t think the Vols cover the opening online spread of Tennessee -1, but I do think they cover the current Vegas spread of South Carolina -4.

Other predictions from other systems

As previously mentioned, the online sites opened with Tennessee a 1-point favorite, while Vegas opened with South Carolina a 4-point favorite. The consensus right now among both the online sites and Vegas is SC -4 to -4.5. The over/under of 47 to 47.5 translates to something around South Carolina 26, Tennessee 22.

ESPN’s FPI gives the Vols a 38.8% chance of winning.

Bill Connelly’s SP+ likes South Carolina 26-22, and gives the Vols a 43% chance of winning. That’s basically bosom buddies with Vegas.

SP+ has been on a tear all season, but it’s cooled off just a bit recently, especially this past week. According to Bill’s Twitter timeline, SP+ went 30-31 (49%) last week but is still at an impressive 55% for the season.

As I said earlier, our SPM has been lagging behind SP+ much of the season, but a 39-22 (63.93%) record last week took a big chunk out of the gap. It’s now 198-187 (51.43%) on the season and 49-27 (64.47%) in our favored range.

Bottom line

The SPM does not like the Vols to cover either the opening online spread or the current spread, and I agree on the opening spread but disagree on the current.

What do y’all think?

The Vols kick off against South Carolina at 4:00 p.m. this Saturday on the SEC Network, but there are several other games worth watching this week as well. Here’s when and where to find those games, along with some suggestions on how and why to watch them.

First up is the list curated just for Vols fans. The full schedule follows that.

Thursday, October 24, 2019

Friday, October 25, 2019

Gameday, October 26, 2019

At noon, No. 13 Wisconsin heads to No. 3 Ohio State on Fox. The afternoon slot is home to the Vols-Gamecocks game — at 4:00 on the SEC Network — but there is also a huge Top 10 SEC matchup between No. 9 Auburn and No. 2 LSU on CBS, so DVR that for later.

In the evening, two future Vols opponents face off against each other when Missouri and Kentucky meet at 7:30 on the SEC Network. There’s also the national game of the night between No. 8 Notre Dame and No. 19 Michigan at the same time on ABC.

Enjoy!

Full searchable college football TV schedule