Will the Vols cover against South Carolina?

Tennessee opened with some non-Vegas online sites as a 1-point favorite over the Gamecocks, but that line quickly moved to South Carolina -4 when the Vegas lines opened at that number. As of this morning, it is between -4 and -4.5. Will the Vols cover against South Carolina?

The SPM’s performance so far in 2019

The SPM did extremely well last week, going 39-22 (63.93%) on all games. Over our confidence threshold, it was 16-5 (76.19%), and in our pre-defined favorites range, it went 12-3 (80%). That’s now three weeks in a row for which it was 55%+ overall.

That three-week stretch has finally gotten the SPM over the hump, as it now sits at 198-187 (51.43%) overall, 90-69 (56.60%) over the confidence threshold, and 49-27 (64.47%) in our favorites range.

Fortunately for Vols fans, the SPM is now 0-2 in Tennessee games the past two weeks, and got the Alabama game wrong last week. We’ll take that.

So what does the SPM have to say about the Tennessee-South Carolina game? Let’s have a look.

Vols-Gamecocks

From the perspective of Tennessee

Tennessee points:

• Tennessee scoring offense for the season: 21.6
• South Carolina scoring defense for the season: 25.3

The South Carolina scoring defense is most similar to the following prior Tennessee opponent(s) (FBS only):

• Mississippi State 28.4
• BYU 29.7

Against BYU, Tennessee scored 26 points, and against Mississippi State, they scored 20 points. So, against the two best comps, Tennessee is scoring 79% of what those teams usually give up, making the SPM’s estimated points for Tennessee against South Carolina 20.

South Carolina points:

• Tennessee scoring defense for the season: 27
• South Carolina scoring offense for the season: 28.6

The South Carolina scoring offense is most similar to the following prior Tennessee opponent(s):

• Mississippi State 24.9
• Florida 32.5

Against Florida, Tennessee allowed 34 points, and against Mississippi State, Tennessee allowed 10 points, which means that Tennessee allowed 77% of what those teams usually score. Thus, the SPM estimates 22 points for South Carolina against Tennessee.

Estimated score: Tennessee 20, South Carolina 22

From the perspective of South Carolina

South Carolina points:

• South Carolina scoring offense for the season: 28.6
• Tennessee scoring defense for the season: 27

The Tennessee scoring defense is most similar to the following prior South Carolina opponent(s) (FBS only):

• North Carolina 27
• Kentucky 23.3

South Carolina scored 24 points against Kentucky and 20 points against North Carolina, which is 88% of what those teams usually give up. So, the SPM estimates 23.8 points for South Carolina against Tennessee.

Tennessee points:

• South Carolina scoring defense for the season: 25.3
• Tennessee scoring offense for the season: 21.6

The Tennessee scoring offense is most similar to the following prior South Carolina opponent(s):

• Kentucky 20.1
• North Carolina 28.6

Kentucky got 7 points against South Carolina and North Carolina got 24. So, against the two best comps, South Carolina allowed only 64% of what those teams usually score. Based on that, the SPM estimates 13.8 points for Tennessee against South Carolina.

Estimated score: South Carolina 23.8, Tennessee 13.8

SPM Final Estimates

When you throw all of that in the stew and crank up the heat, here’s what’s for dinner:

SPM Final estimated score: Tennessee 16.9, South Carolina 22.9

SPM Final estimated spread: South Carolina -6

SPM Confidence level (difference from the opening spread): 7

That confidence level of 7 is just under the range that the SPM favors the most this season, meaning this is not one of its favorite picks this week. Which is fine, because it doesn’t understand Tennessee when it comes to the spread.

Eyeball adjustments

The one thing I’m raising my eyebrows at is South Carolina’s estimated points from Tennessee’s perspective. The comps there are Mississippi State and Florida, and the results from Tennessee’s defense against those teams is wildly divergent. Florida got 34, but Mississippi State got only 10. So, when you combine those, it’s 77% of what those teams usually score. But I think Tennessee’s defense today is more like the one that held Mississippi State to 10 than the one that let Florida get 34, so if you look only at Mississippi State, the Vols allowed them only 40% of what they usually get. The defense is getting better each week, and the SPM is lagging behind. 40% of what the Gamecocks usually score is only 11.5 points.

Bottom line, I’m thinking/hoping that the SPM’s estimation of points for South Carolina is too high. To me, this is a true toss-up game, although if there’s a slight advantage, it belongs to South Carolina.

So, my eyeball-adjusted prediction is South Carolina 20, Tennessee 17. I don’t think the Vols cover the opening online spread of Tennessee -1, but I do think they cover the current Vegas spread of South Carolina -4.

Other predictions from other systems

As previously mentioned, the online sites opened with Tennessee a 1-point favorite, while Vegas opened with South Carolina a 4-point favorite. The consensus right now among both the online sites and Vegas is SC -4 to -4.5. The over/under of 47 to 47.5 translates to something around South Carolina 26, Tennessee 22.

ESPN’s FPI gives the Vols a 38.8% chance of winning.

Bill Connelly’s SP+ likes South Carolina 26-22, and gives the Vols a 43% chance of winning. That’s basically bosom buddies with Vegas.

SP+ has been on a tear all season, but it’s cooled off just a bit recently, especially this past week. According to Bill’s Twitter timeline, SP+ went 30-31 (49%) last week but is still at an impressive 55% for the season.

As I said earlier, our SPM has been lagging behind SP+ much of the season, but a 39-22 (63.93%) record last week took a big chunk out of the gap. It’s now 198-187 (51.43%) on the season and 49-27 (64.47%) in our favored range.

Bottom line

The SPM does not like the Vols to cover either the opening online spread or the current spread, and I agree on the opening spread but disagree on the current.

What do y’all think?