Use the form below to calculate your expected win total for the rest of the season.
The GRT Expected Win Total Machine
My assessment
About those Vols: We’ve been getting glimpses of improvement for almost a month, but this week the thing grew legs and starting running amuck through the china shop. Everything is getting better, including both the offensive and defensive lines and overall team depth, the things that have plagued us most for far too many years. One thing we’ve learned through the entire ordeal is that progress isn’t usually linear, so there may still be bad days ahead, but the team is just so much more fun to watch now. You have to feel really good not just about the direction this thing is headed, but that it’s also now beginning to pick up speed and momentum.
Regarding the Vols’ past opponents: There wasn’t a lot of good data about Tennessee’s past opponents this week as many of them were off, one of them gave the game away on turnovers, and another one of them played Arkansas.
As for Tennessee’s future opponents, UAB and Vandy were both off, and Kentucky beat Missouri, making the Wildcats look better and the Tigers look worse.
With this week’s adjustments, I now have an expected win total of . . . 5.6, up from 4.7 last week. We’re rounding up to bowl eligibility now, y’all!
Here’s how I’ve tracked this season:
- Preseason: 6.55
- After Week 0: 6.6
- After Week 1: 2.87
- After Week 2: 2.37
- After Week 3: 3.65
- After Week 4: 2.9
- After Week 5: 3.25
- After Week 6: 3.85
- After Week 7: 4.4
- After Week 8: 4.7
- After Week 9: 5.6
Details: I now have Kentucky and Missouri at 60% and UAB and Vanderbilt at 70%.
Here’s a table with my expectations this week:
Tennessee Volunteers currently
Current record: 3-5 (2-3), 4th in the SEC East
| Sat, Aug 31 | Lost to Georgia State, 30-38 |
| Sat, Sep 7 | Lost to BYU, 29-26 2OT |
| Sat, Sep 14 | Beat Chattanooga, 45-0 |
| Sat, Sep 21 | Lost @ No. 9 Florida, 34-3 |
| Sat, Oct 5 | Lost to No. 3 Georgia, 43-14 |
| Sat, Oct 12 | Beat Mississippi State, 20-10 |
| Sat, Oct 19 | Lost @ 1 Alabama, 35-13 |
| Sat, Oct 26 | Beat South Carolina, 41-21 |
| Sat, Nov 2 | Beat UAB, 30-7 |
| Sat, Nov 9 | Beat Kentucky, 17-13 |
| Sat, Nov 23 | Beat Missouri, 24-20 |
| Sat, Nov 30 | vs Vanderbilt |
The Vols’ future opponents
UAB Blazers
Current record: 6-1 (3-1), 2nd in C-USA West
| Thu, Aug 29 | Beat Alabama State, 24-19 |
| Sat, Sep 7 | Beat Akron, 31-20 |
| Sat, Sep 21 | Beat South Alabama, 35-3 |
| Sat, Sep 28 | Lost @ Western Kentucky, 20-13 |
| Sat, Oct 5 | Beat Rice, 35-20 |
| Sat, Oct 12 | Beat UTSA, 33-14 |
| Sat, Oct 19 | Beat Old Dominion, 38-14 |
| Sat, Nov 2 | Lost @ Tennessee, 30-7 |
| Sat, Nov 9 | Lost @ Southern Miss, 37-2 |
| Sat, Nov 16 | Beat UTEP, 37-10 |
| Sat, Nov 23 | Beat Louisiana Tech, 20-14 |
| Sat, Nov 30 | @ North Texas |
Off this week.
Kentucky Wildcats
Current record: 4-4 (2-4), 5th in the SEC East
| Sat, Aug 31 | Beat Toledo, 38-24 |
| Sat, Sep 7 | Beat Eastern Michigan, 38-17 |
| Sat, Sep 14 | Lost to No. 8 Florida, 29-21 |
| Sat, Sep 21 | Lost @ Mississippi State, 28-13 |
| Sat, Sep 28 | Lost @ South Carolina, 24-7 |
| Sat, Oct 12 | Beat Arkansas, 24-20 |
| Sat, Oct 19 | Lost to No. 10 Georgia, 21-0 |
| Sat, Oct 26 | Beat Missouri, 29-7 |
| Sat, Nov 9 | Lost to Tennessee, 17-13 |
| Sat, Nov 16 | Beat Vanderbilt, 38-14 |
| Sat, Nov 23 | Beat UT Martin, 50-7 |
| Sat, Nov 30 | vs Louisville |
Looked good with a wide receiver running from the quarterback position. May be one-dimensional, but that dimension is pretty good.
Missouri Tigers
Current record: 5-3 (2-2), 3rd in the SEC East
| Sat, Aug 31 | Lost to Wyoming, 37-31 |
| Sat, Sep 7 | Beat West Virginia, 38-7 |
| Sat, Sep 14 | Beat Southeast Missouri State, 50-0 |
| Sat, Sep 21 | Beat South Carolina, 34-14 |
| Sat, Oct 5 | Beat Troy, 42-10 |
| Sat, Oct 12 | Beat Ole Miss, 38-27 |
| Sat, Oct 19 | Lost to Vanderbilt, 21-14 |
| Sat, Oct 26 | Lost @ Kentucky, 29-7 |
| Sat, Nov 9 | Lost @ No. 6 Georgia, 27-0 |
| Sat, Nov 16 | Lost to No. 11 Florida, 23-6 |
| Sat, Nov 23 | Lost to Tennessee, 24-20 |
| Fri, Nov 29 | @ Arkansas |
Two weeks ago, these guys looked like they were leading the face for the SEC East. Last week, they lost to Vanderbilt, which was coming off a loss to UNLV. This week, they just couldn’t get rolling in the rain against Kentucky with Kelly Bryant one-dimensional due to what looked like a bad hamstring. Over the next couple of games against No. 10 Georgia and No. 7 Florida, they’ll either get their second wind or fall completely apart.
Vanderbilt Commodores
Current record: 2-5 (1-3), 5th in the SEC East
| Sat, Aug 31 | Lost to No. 3 Georgia, 30-6 |
| Sat, Sep 7 | Lost to Purdue, 42-24 |
| Sat, Sep 21 | Lost to No. 4 LSU, 66-38 |
| Sat, Sep 28 | Beat Northern Illinois, 24-18 |
| Sat, Oct 5 | Lost to Ole Miss, 31-6 |
| Sat, Oct 12 | Lost to UNLV, 34-10 |
| Sat, Oct 19 | Beat No. 22 Missouri, 21-14 |
| Sat, Nov 2 | Lost @ South Carolina, 24-7 |
| Sat, Nov 9 | Lost @ No. 10 Florida, 56-0 |
| Sat, Nov 16 | Lost to Kentucky, 38-14 |
| Sat, Nov 23 | Beat ETSU, 38-0 |
| Sat, Nov 30 | @ Tennessee |
Off this week.
The Vols’ past opponents
Georgia State Panthers
Current record: 6-2 (3-1), 2nd in the Sun Belt East
| Sat, Aug 31 | Beat Tennessee, 38-30 |
| Sat, Sep 7 | Beat Furman, 48-42 |
| Sat, Sep 14 | Lost to Western Michigan, 57-10 |
| Sat, Sep 21 | Lost @ Texas State, 37-34 3OT |
| Sat, Oct 5 | Beat Arkansas State, 52-38 |
| Sat, Oct 12 | Beat Coastal Carolina, 31-21 |
| Sat, Oct 19 | Beat Army, 28-21 |
| Sat, Oct 26 | Beat Troy, 52-33 |
| Sat, Nov 9 | Lost @ UL Monroe, 45-31 |
| Sat, Nov 16 | Lost to No. 25 Appalachian State, 56-27 |
| Sat, Nov 23 | Beat South Alabama, 28-15 |
| Sat, Nov 30 | @ Georgia Southern |
That “2-10 Sun Belt team” from Week 1 is actually a “6-2 Sun Belt team.”
BYU Cougars
Current record: 3-4
| Thu, Aug 29 | Lost to No. 14 Utah, 12-30 |
| Sat, Sep 7 | Beat Tennessee, 29-26 2OT |
| Sat, Sep 14 | Beat No. 24 USC, 30-27 OT |
| Sat, Sep 21 | Lost to No. 22 Washington, 45-19 |
| Sat, Sep 28 | Lost @ Toledo, 28-21 |
| Sat, Oct 12 | Lost @ South Florida, 27-23 |
| Sat, Oct 19 | Beat No. 14 Boise State, 28-25 |
| Sat, Nov 2 | Beat Utah State, 42-14 |
| Sat, Nov 9 | Beat Liberty, 31-24 |
| Sat, Nov 16 | Beat Idaho State, 42-10 |
| Sat, Nov 23 | Beat UMass, 56-24 |
| Sat, Nov 30 | @ San Diego State |
The Cougars were off this week.
Chattanooga Mocs
Current record: 4-4 (3-1), 3rd in the Southern Conference
| Thu, Aug 29 | Beat Eastern Illinois, 24-10 |
| Sat, Sep 7 | Lost to Jacksonville State, 41-20 |
| Sat, Sep 14 | Lost at Tennessee, 45-0 |
| Sat, Sep 21 | Lost to James Madison, 37-14 |
| Sat, Sep 28 | Beat Western Carolina, 60-36 |
| Sat, Oct 5 | Beat Mercer, 34-17 |
| Thu, Oct 17 | Beat East Tennessee State, 16-13 |
| Sat, Oct 26 | Lost @ Wofford, 35-34 OT |
| Sat, Nov 2 | Lost to Furman, 35-20 |
| Sat, Nov 9 | Beat Samford, 35-27 |
| Sat, Nov 16 | Beat The Citadel, 34-33 |
| Sat, Nov 23 | Lost to VMI, 31-24 |
Florida Gators
Current record: 7-1 (4-1), 1st in the SEC East
| Sat, Aug 24 | Beat Miami, 24-20 |
| Sat, Sep 7 | Beat UT Martin, 45-0 |
| Sat, Sep 14 | Beat Kentucky, 29-21 |
| Sat, Sep 21 | Beat Tennessee, 34-3 |
| Sat, Sep 28 | Beat Towson, 38-0 |
| Sat, Oct 5 | Beat No. 7 Auburn, 24-13 |
| Sat, Oct 12 | Lost @ No. 5 LSU, 42-28 |
| Sat, Oct 19 | Beat South Carolina, 38-27 |
| Sat, Nov 2 | Lost to No. 8 Georgia, 24-17 |
| Sat, Nov 9 | Beat Vanderbilt, 56-0 |
| Sat, Nov 16 | Beat Missouri, 23-6 |
| Sat, Nov 30 | vs Florida State |
Off this week in advance of next week’s big showdown with Georgia.
Georgia Bulldogs
Current record: 6-1 (3-1), 2nd in the SEC East
| Sat, Aug 31 | Beat Vanderbilt, 30-6 |
| Sat, Sep 7 | Beat Murray State, 63-17 |
| Sat, Sep 14 | Beat Arkansas State, 55-0 |
| Sat, Sep 21 | Beat No. 7 Notre Dame, 23-17 |
| Sat, Oct 5 | Beat Tennessee, 43-14 |
| Sat, Oct 12 | Lost to South Carolina, 20-17 2OT |
| Sat, Oct 19 | Beat Kentucky, 21-0 |
| Sat, Nov 2 | Beat No. 6 Florida, 24-17 |
| Sat, Nov 9 | Beat Missouri, 27-0 |
| Sat, Nov 16 | Beat No. 12 Auburn, 21-14 |
| Sat, Nov 23 | Beat Texas A&M, 19-13 |
| Sat, Nov 30 | @ Georgia Tech |
Off this week, and smelling Gator meat.
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Current record: 3-5 (1-4), 6th in the SEC West
| Sat, Aug 31 | Beat Louisiana, 38-28 |
| Sat, Sep 7 | Beat Southern Mississippi, 38-15 |
| Sat, Sep 14 | Lost to Kansas State, 31-24 |
| Sat, Sep 21 | Beat Kentucky, 28-13 |
| Sat, Sep 28 | Lost @ No. 7 Auburn, 56-23 |
| Sat, Oct 12 | Lost @ Tennessee, 20-10 |
| Sat, Oct 19 | Lost to No. 2 LSU |
| Sat, Oct 26 | Lost @ Texas A&M, 49-30 |
| Sat, Nov 2 | Beat Arkansas, 54-24 |
| Sat, Nov 16 | Lost to No. 5 Alabama, 38-7 |
| Sat, Nov 23 | Beat Abilene Christian, 45-7 |
| Thu, Nov 28 | vs Ole Miss |
It’s still difficult to conclude much about Mississippi State, as this weekend’s loss to Texas A&M came at the hands of several turnovers. They get a bit of a reprieve next week with a game against Arkansas.
Alabama Crimson Tide
Current record: 8-0 (5-0), 1st in the SEC West
| Sat, Aug 31 | Beat Duke, 42-3 |
| Sat, Sep 7 | Beat New Mexico State, 62-10 |
| Sat, Sep 14 | Beat South Carolina, 47-23 |
| Sat, Sep 21 | Beat Southern Miss, 49-7 |
| Sat, Sep 28 | Beat Ole Miss, 59-31 |
| Sat, Oct 12 | Beat No. 24 Texas A&M, 47-28 |
| Sat, Oct 19 | Beat Tennessee, 35-13 |
| Sat, Oct 26 | Beat Arkansas, 48-7 |
| Sat, Nov 9 | Lost to No. 2 LSU, 46-41 |
| Sat, Nov 16 | Beat Mississippi State, 38-7 |
| Sat, Nov 23 | Beat Western Carolina, 66-3 |
| Sat, Nov 30 | @ No. 11 Auburn |
No Tua, no problem. Alabama led this one 41-0 at halftime before coasting home in the second half. It was just Arkansas, though, so you know. Both No. 1 Alabama and No. 2 LSU are off next week, and then they’ll meet in Tuscaloosa the following week. That should be fun.
South Carolina Gamecocks
Current record: 3-5 (2-4), 5th in the SEC East
| Sat, Aug 31 | Lost to North Carolina, 24-20 |
| Sat, Sep 7 | Beat Charleston Southern, 72-10 |
| Sat, Sep 14 | Lost to No. 2 Alabama, 47-23 |
| Sat, Sep 21 | Lost @ Missouri, 34-14 |
| Sat, Sep 28 | Beat Kentucky, 24-7 |
| Sat, Oct 12 | Beat No. 3 Georgia, 20-17 2OT |
| Sat, Oct 19 | Lost to No. 9 Florida, 38-27 |
| Sat, Oct 26 | Lost @ Tennessee, 41-21 |
| Sat, Nov 2 | Beat Vanderbilt, 24-7 |
| Sat, Nov 9 | Lost to Appalachian State, 20-15 |
| Sat, Nov 16 | Lost @ Texas A&M, 30-6 |
| Sat, Nov 30 | vs 4 Clemson |
What about you? Where are your expectations for the Vols now?
I’m also at 5.6. Not pushing Missouri above 50% just yet, but still more confident against UAB than many of us, it seems.
5.78. A little more confident for both Missouri and Kentucky.
Whoa… mine jumped to 5.85 from 5.3. Looks like we are getting close to bowl qualification. We still need to keep improving and overcoming adversity when necessary. The stretch run ain’t going to be easy… one game at a time. Go Vols!
I am sitting at 5.85 this week. Let optimism reign eternal and GBO.
We won 2 I didn’t expect (MSU/USCe), so I am up to 5.7. Keep surprising me, Vols. I love it!
Up to 5.0 via somewhat round numbers (.67, .40, .33, .60) coming down the stretch.
3-1 still feels like a lot to ask with the QB carousel and the injuries for a team already pretty thin in some places…but it isn’t as much to ask as 4-1 was!
6.05(from 5.4 before I researched and wrote this quickie) UAB is scary-adjacent, they don’t move the ball that consistently… even against some of the awful defenses they’ve faced but they do have big play WRs who can burn you. It’s the consistency that’s hurt them and their hugely heavy (over?)reliance on running when their leading rusher is <4ypc. Defensively they are top 15 at everything, but there are MASSIVE caveats. Examples of those caveats follow… #5 Total Defense… Bama State(#106 FCS Total Offense), Akron(#128 FBS), USA(#125 FBS), WKU (#105), Rice(#127), UTSA(#116), ODU(#130). #8 Rushing Defense… Bama State(#109 FCS), Akron(#130), USA(#85/400yd… Read more »
Oh, and Will… if you guys ever need any help on here I’m a journalist who’s had to back off the full time stuff to deal with family obligations. I’d enjoy doing some stuff just to exercise my mind with no expectation of compensation, so long as I would have permission to use it in portfoilio.
July 25, 2019 (pre-season): 5.96
August 26, 2019 (after “Week Zero”): 5.92
September 3, 2019 (post-Georgia St.): 3.86
September 9, 2019 (post-BYU): 3.09
September 16, 2019 (post-Chattanooga): 3.61
September 24, 2019 (post-Florida): 2.71
September 30, 2019 (post open date): 2.61
October 10, 2019 (post-Georgia): 2.76
October 14, 2019 (post-Mississippi St.): 3.87
October 21, 2019 (post-Alabama): 4.00
October 29, 2019 (post-South Carolina): 5.35
What a wild ride to wind up almost back to where I started.
5.65 I’m still not super worried about UAB or Vandy. Vandy is Vandy, but they have won 3 of the last 4. So confidence is not where it traditionally has been. UAB has a solid defense, but the offense isn’t special. And it’s all come against lower tier teams. I still think Mizzou is our hardest game left being that it’s in Columbia. They have played much better at home, but Bryant is hurting at the moment, and they seem to be in a bit of disarray. So I’m felling more confident about it than I have all season. Still… Read more »