Where Does Tennessee Turn Now for Pass-Rushers?

With the flip of prized commitment BJ Ojulari to LSU over the weekend, Tennessee is now left with a large hole in what is otherwise an outstanding recruiting class.  With nine spots still remaining, the Vols have added 16 high quality players that will collectively will meaningfully improve the roster starting next season.  However, as potential All-SEC senior Darrell Taylor has only 5 games left in an Orange and White uniform (yes, I’m projecting a bowl game) and even likely backfills Deandre Johnson and Kivon Bennett – both of whom appear to be developing rapidly and look like good options in 2020 – being relatively near graduation, this class in particular needs impact pass rushers in the worst way.  The fact that Ojulari is actually the second decommitment in the class from a high quality player at that particular position of need after JUCO Jordan Davis flipped to Mississippi State over the summer quite simply stings.

That said, if we know anything about Head Coach Jeremy Pruitt it’s that he’s not one to cry over spilled milk but instead will roll up his sleeves and figure it out.  Especially in recruiting.  So where will the Vols look to now in order to add at least one pass rusher?*

*The assumption here is that Tyler Baron will commit to and sign with Tennessee but that considering he’s already 6-4, 250 pounds he’s more likely to end up as a SDE than a WDE or OLB 

Prospects Committed Elsewhere

Sa’vell Small (UW)

Simeon Barrow (MSU)

Khari Coleman (KU)

Brandon Williams (UVA)

Deontae Craig (Iowa)

Morven Joseph (FSU)

Jasheen Davis (WF)

Of that list, Smalls is the most highly coveted, and despite his commitment to homestate Washington the Vols are no doubt still trying there.  Some thought Tennessee actually led headed into the season, so he might be one that Tennessee and lead recruiter Brian Niedermeyer circle back on now that the season is on the upswing again.  Barrow is a 6-3, 250 pound DL who, like Baron, might in fact be destined to be more of an interior DL.  But he’s got some explosiveness off the edge and real functional strength that allows him to overpower OTs when he’s not blowing by them.  Importantly, he earned a Vol offer in February and though Tennessee was likely not ready to take him when he committed to Michigan State – known for their Defense – over the summer, the lines of communication have remained open.  Barrow is definitely not a Spartan lock, as he just took an OV to Virginia Tech and has a tentative official visit to Knoxville set for this weekend.  He could very well be one to watch down the road.  Coleman and Williams are both NOLA natives known for their pass-rushing skills.  Coleman has become his high school’s career sack leader this season and at 6’2-6’3 and closer to 220 pounds is more of a speed-rush type prospect with good length to go with his quickness of the edge.  He seems relatively firm in his Jayhawk pledge but if the Vols push one would think they could wedge themselves in there.  Williams is having a good season for Peyton Manning’s alma mater and was once a real target for the Vols.  Craig is a guy Tennessee liked earlier in the summer but seemed to back off a bit but again might come back to in order to see if there’s any interest.  Joseph was a Florida commitment who flipped to the Noles but had some interest in Tennessee at one point and has talked recently about taking other visits, to UT included, while Davis got an early season Vol offer but so far has remained solid to the Deacons.

Of all of those, Barrow seems to be the prospect with the highest chance of flipping to Tennessee while Smalls is of course the biggest prize.  The Vols will likely try and get back in the mix with as many of the above as possible in order to see what else they can shake loose.

Uncommitted Prospects

Jimari Butler

Johnathan Horton

Two prospects who share quite a few similarities: Gulf Coast area kids (Butler is from Mobile, Horton from Baton Rouge), both are new to the game of football after excelling on the hardwood, both are in the 6-5+, 210-220 pound range, and both have blown up on the recruiting trail after their respective films showing them terrorizing opponents off the edge got out.  The Vols were in relatively early for both, offering Butler in September before the likes of Nebraska, TCU, and Ole Miss have stepped to the table, and giving Horton just his 4th offer in mid-October after Baylor, UVA, and Arizona had offered. 

These two arguably have higher upsides than most of the players on the “Committed Elsewhere” list, as their sheer measurables and athleticism combined with bigtime production despite lack of experience just screams massive ceiling.  Butler visited Knoxville unofficially for the UGA game and was just in Baton Rouge for LSU’s game against Auburn (who is also sniffing around) so there is clearly reciprocal interest between the two parties.  Horton seemingly has yet to really visit anywhere – his recruitment is that new.  These two are less likely to be instant impact players than some others on the board – though you never know – but both look like they have real potential to be devastating SEC pass rushers in due time.  It will be very interesting to see how their respective recruitments play out in general and specifically as it relates to Tennessee.

It wouldn’t be surprising to see the Vols circle back to multiple players on the lists above and even unearth new prospects who have that premium skill of getting to the quarterback.  But regardless of who they are, Tennessee needs to add at least one more if not multiple pass-rushers to its 2020 class. 

Will the Vols cover against UAB?

Beware: Weirdness afoot.

Tennessee opened as a 10.5-point favorite over the UAB Blazers this week, and since then it’s bounced around between 9.5 and 12.5. Currently, it’s Vols -12. So . . . will the Vols cover against UAB?

The SPM’s performance so far in 2019

After three straight weeks of being over 55% (and notching nearly 64% last week), the SPM fell victim to the turf monster last week and went 25-30 (45.45%) overall. Over our confidence threshold, it went 9-11 (45%), and in our pre-defined favorites range, it went 6-5 (54.55%). This week, we tracked both Vegas and non-Vegas lines, and essentially, there was only a one-game difference between those two sets of data.

For the season, the SPM now sits at 223-217 (50.68%) overall, 99-80 (55.31%) over the confidence threshold, and 55-32 (63.22%) in our favorites range.

I’m officially now regretting my early-season decision to include the overall SPM stuff with the weekly Tennessee statsy preview because the SPM is TERRIBLE at Vols games. It again got the Tennessee game wrong last week, the third week in a row it’s whiffed on the Vols. And it’s going to make itself look downright stupid this week. I consoling myself with constant reminders that the Vols have everybody else confused, too, including Vegas.

So what does the SPM have to say about the Tennessee-UAB game this week? Ahem . . .

Vols-Blazers

Okay, first, the SPM’s opinion on the Vols-Blazers game this weekend should be mostly ignored. The only reason I’m even posting this is (1) in the interest of full disclosure and to avoid allegations of cherry-picking, and (2) because of that word “mostly.”

Full disclosure

Without going through the full analysis, I’m just going to tell you that the SPM has UAB winning this game by 16.2 points. This actually provides an excellent illustration of why you can’t just assume that the machine gets more reliable the more it diverges from the Vegas line. The truth is that there is a sweet spot. The results generally get more reliable the more they diverge from the Vegas line, but only up to a point. If they diverge too much, it’s more an indication that it is not reliable because something is very, very wrong.

So what’s wrong? This is a whole different neighborhood, man.

Those of you who’ve been reading for some time know that the SPM is a comps system. While other systems rank teams based on how good they are and then make predictions based on those relative rankings, the SPM uses comparables to make predictions, and the comps are just no good this week. To UAB, the Vols defense looks most like Rice and Old Dominion and the offense looks like Western Kentucky and UTSA. To drive the point home a bit more, from Tennessee’s perspective, UAB’s defense looks like Florida and Alabama and its offense looks like South Carolina and Florida.

As odd as that looks, there’s good reason for it. UAB’s stats put them right alongside those teams in the national rankings. The problem is that those stats have been compiled against nothing but terrible competition. As I said in that earlier post, Tennessee strength of schedule is currently ranked 12th, and UAB’s is ranked 130th. And as @Alyas Grey said in this terrific comment, wins and losses aren’t the only issues. You can’t compare Manhattan commercial real estate to a duplex in Podunk, Alabama. Well, you can, but you’ll end up with UAB winning by 16 points.

Configuring the SPM to account for that will have to be an offseason project. For now, we’ll just have to mostly ignore it on those rare occasions when it spits out something funny.

That word “mostly”

But I say “mostly ignore” because all of that might also be hinting at something we’re all missing. There are two sides to this problem, and our tendency is to intensely scrutinize only one side of that coin while ignoring the other.

If you don’t know how good a team is because they haven’t played anybody, you can’t just conclude that they are no good. If you don’t know how good they are, you don’t know how good they are. They could be worse than they look, but they could also be better than you’re giving them credit for.

The Blazers’ 6-1 record so far in 2019 is not unexpected. After finishing our magazine this spring, I wondered whether the Vols’ toughest non-conference opponent would be BYU or UAB. So, while we’re dismissing their schedule, we’d do well to give some weight to their resume.

SPM Final Estimates

For the record (and in case you skipped everything else, I’m putting it here: This is likely to be really wrong):

SPM Final estimated score: UAB 30, Tennessee 13.8

SPM Final estimated spread: UAB -16.2

SPM Confidence level (difference from the opening spread): 26.7

One more time with feeling: That 26.7 “confidence” level is so high that it signals serious wonkiness, that you should not be confident in it. Yes, I should rename it something other than “confidence level.”

Eyeball adjustments

What do we do about all of this? The Blazers haven’t ventured out of Podunk so far this year, but they did head to the big city once last year when they played Texas A&M at College Station. Despite finishing the 2018 season 11-3, they lost to the Aggies 41-20. The SPM says that if those two teams played today, the score would be Blazers 25.1, Aggies 24.8. Occam says that’s wrong by three touchdowns.

If the SPM is similarly wrong about the Vols-Blazers, that would make it Vols by 5. Combine that with the fact that the SPM has been wrong on the Vols for three weeks in a row now, presumably due to the fact that it doesn’t recognize that they’re improving every week, and I’d bump that up another touchdown. Let’s say Vols by 12, maybe.

So, my eyeball-adjusted prediction is Tennessee 28, UAB 17. I think the Vols cover the opening spread of Tennessee -10.5, but I don’t think they cover the current spread of Tennessee -12.

Other predictions from other systems

With the current spread at Tennessee -12 and an over/under of 48, that translates to something like Tennessee 30, UAB 18.

ESPN’s FPI gives the Vols an 88.3% chance of winning.

Bill Connelly’s SP+ likes the Vols 27-18, and gives them a 70% chance of winning. That’s picking the Vols not to cover.

SP+ broke even last week. According to Bill’s Twitter timeline, SP+ went 27-27-1 (50%). It’s still at an impressive 55% for the season.

As I said earlier, our SPM is now 223-217 (50.68%) on the season and 55-32 (63.22%) in our favored range.

Bottom line

The SPM does not like the Vols to cover this week but lacks credibility on the Vols generally right now and in this game in particular. Using my own eyes, I like the Vols by 11, which means I think they’ll cover the opening spread of -10.5 but not the current spread of -12.

What do y’all think?

College Football TV Schedule: Week 10

The Tennessee Volunteers kick off against the UAB Blazers at 7:00 p.m. this Saturday on ESPNU, but what about all of the other games? Here’s when and where to find those games, along with some suggestions on how and why to watch them.

First up is the list curated just for Vols fans. The full schedule follows that.

Thursday, October 31, 2019

Away Home Time TV How Why
West Virginia #12 Baylor 8:00 PM ESPN Channel Hop Top 25 team
Georgia Southern #20 Appalachian State 8:00 PM ESPNU Channel Hop Top 25 team

Friday, November 1, 2019

Away Home Time TV How Why
Navy UConn 8:00 PM ESPN2 Live It's football, and it will be over before you know it

Gameday, November 2, 2019

Away Home Time TV How Why
NOON
#5 Penn State #13 Minnesota 12:00 PM ABC Live / Channel Hop Top 15 matchup
Vanderbilt #10 Florida 12:00 PM ESPN DVR / Channel Hop Future Vols opponent
AFTERNOON
#1 LSU #2 Alabama 3:30 PM CBS Live No. 1 vs. No. 2
EVENING
Missouri #6 Georgia 7:00 PM ESPN Live until Vols, then DVR Future Vols opponent
Tennessee Kentucky 7:30 PM SECN Live Go Vols!

At noon, there are a couple of Top 25 teams in action, but really they’re just appetizers for the main event at 3:30 when No. 8 Georgia and No. 6 Florida meet up to decide who’s going to win the SEC East. There are other games on in the afternoon slot, too, but hey, if you want to watch Notre Dame and Virginia Tech, feel free, but I’m not going to recommend it.

The Vols kick off against UAB at 7:00 on ESPNU, and if you are so inclined, you can DVR Vandy-South Carolina to get a better bead on the upcoming game against the Commodores.

Enjoy!

Full searchable college football TV schedule

Date Away Home Time TV
10/31/19 West Virginia #12 Baylor 8:00 PM ESPN
10/31/19 Georgia Southern #20 Appalachian State 8:00 PM ESPNU
11/1/19 Navy UConn 8:00 PM ESPN2
11/2/19 #14 Michigan Maryland 12:00 PM ABC
11/2/19 NC State #23 Wake Forest 12:00 PM ESPN
11/2/19 Houston UCF 12:00 PM ESPN2
11/2/19 Buffalo Eastern Michigan 12:00 PM
11/2/19 Northern Illinois Central Michigan 12:00 PM CBSSN
11/2/19 Nebraska Purdue 12:00 PM FOX
11/2/19 Boston College Syracuse 12:00 PM ACCN
11/2/19 UTSA Texas A&M 12:00 PM SECN
11/2/19 Old Dominion Florida International 12:00 PM ESPN+
11/2/19 Liberty UMass 12:00 PM
11/2/19 Akron Bowling Green 2:00 PM ESPN+
11/2/19 Virginia Tech #16 Notre Dame 2:30 PM NBC
11/2/19 Troy Coastal Carolina 3:00 PM ESPN3
11/2/19 #8 Georgia #6 Florida 3:30 PM CBS
11/2/19 #22 Kansas State Kansas 3:30 PM FS1
11/2/19 Arkansas State UL Monroe 3:30 PM ESPNU
11/2/19 Marshall Rice 3:30 PM
11/2/19 UTEP North Texas 3:30 PM NFL
11/2/19 Army Air Force 3:30 PM CBSSN
11/2/19 Middle Tennessee Charlotte 3:30 PM ESPN3
11/2/19 UNLV Colorado State 3:30 PM
11/2/19 Miami Florida State 3:30 PM ABC
11/2/19 TCU Oklahoma State 3:30 PM ESPN
11/2/19 Rutgers Illinois 3:30 PM BTN
11/2/19 Wofford #4 Clemson 4:00 PM ACCN
11/2/19 #9 Utah Washington 4:00 PM FOX
11/2/19 Mississippi State Arkansas 4:00 PM SECN
11/2/19 Pittsburgh Georgia Tech 4:00 PM ACCNX
11/2/19 Florida Atlantic Western Kentucky 4:00 PM ESPN+
11/2/19 Tulsa Tulane 4:00 PM ESPN2
11/2/19 Oregon State Arizona 4:30 PM PAC12
11/2/19 Texas State Louisiana 5:00 PM ESPN+
11/2/19 Ole Miss #11 Auburn 7:00 PM ESPN
11/2/19 #17 Cincinnati East Carolina 7:00 PM CBSSN
11/2/19 UAB Tennessee 7:00 PM ESPNU
11/2/19 Northwestern Indiana 7:00 PM FS1
11/2/19 #15 SMU #24 Memphis 7:30 PM ABC
11/2/19 Vanderbilt South Carolina 7:30 PM SECN
11/2/19 Virginia North Carolina 7:30 PM ACCN
11/2/19 #7 Oregon USC 8:00 PM FOX
11/2/19 Colorado UCLA 9:00 PM PAC12
11/2/19 BYU Utah State 10:00 PM ESPN2
11/2/19 #21 Boise State San Jose State 10:30 PM CBSSN
11/2/19 New Mexico Nevada 10:30 PM ESPNU
11/2/19 Fresno State Hawai'i 11:59 PM

About That B-Word…

ESPN’s FPI projects the Vols to finish with 5.5 regular season wins. At the moment, bowl eligibility is – barely but fairly! – the most likely outcome. You can do your own math with our expected win total machine, but most of us are coming in on the right side of six wins. And thanks to Missouri’s struggles against Kentucky and Vanderbilt, seven wins – the very 7-5 finish many of us picked at the start of the season – suddenly feels like it’s on the table too.

FPI will cool those jets, giving Tennessee just an 11.2% chance of winning out. This season should’ve taught us not to get ahead of ourselves when it comes to the Vols, and no one should be taking anyone for granted. UAB opened as a 13-point underdog, and by Tuesday it’s already 10. Vegas has underestimated the Vols by a combined 54 points in the last three weeks. I’d love to make it four. But Tennessee needs to take things one Saturday at a time.

For the rest of us, however, let’s consider the following possibility:

  • Alabama and LSU both make the College Football Playoff
  • The Sugar Bowl is required to take the next highest-ranked SEC team, probably the Florida/Georgia winner
  • The Florida/Georgia loser wins out, finishes 10-2, and is ranked high enough in the CFP poll to earn an at-large bid to the New Year’s Six
  • The Citrus Bowl is required to take the next highest-ranked SEC team, probably Auburn

That scenario plays out in Banner Society’s bowl projections; Jason Kirk has been one of the very best (by being one of the most realistic) in those projections for a long time. He doesn’t have Tennessee bowl eligible, so let’s hope that part is unrealistic. But if all of the above plays out, the SEC’s Group of Six bowls would be choosing between a Texas A&M team who finishes at Georgia and at LSU, Kentucky (FPI projects at 7-5), Missouri if they’re eligible, and – if they can get to six wins – Mississippi State, South Carolina, and Tennessee.

It’s a nice, neat group of six if everyone is eligible. But FPI projects South Carolina to come up short, and Missouri is still ineligible at the moment. It could be that those six bowls are choosing between A&M, Kentucky, Mississippi State, and Tennessee. A&M played in the Gator Bowl last year, Mississippi State in the Outback.

If the Vols are 7-5 on a five -game winning streak? It ain’t gonna be the Liberty Bowl, friends.

Keep taking care of business, and there’s a real chance the Vols could spend January in Florida.

Why It Should Be Darnell Washington or Bust at TE for Tennessee in 2020

Tennessee has never had an expansive list of Tight End prospects on its 2020 board.  For whatever reason, the Vols never offered a large number of them to begin with, and now that we’re fairly deep into the season it’s become very clear recently that this isn’t going to change.  The one constant on the board has been 5-star Darnell Washington from Las Vegas, NV.  Washington is as sure of a thing as one sees coming out of the high school ranks – a massive 6’7, 260 pounder who can move like someone half a foot and 50 pounds lighter yet also uses that size functionally in the run game while also possessing good hands.  It’s no surprise, therefore, that Washington has always been a national recruit, with the likes of UGA and Alabama being consistently at the top of his list.  Tennessee, through dogged recruiting by TE Coach and recruiting ace Brian Niedermeyer, has managed to stay at the top of that list as well, and the Vols have gotten Washington to campus two times already.  He’s been presumed to be a Bulldog lean for a while now, however, and by all accounts had an outstanding official visit to Athens for their game against Notre Dame back in September.  However, he’s yet to commit there, which means something.  He took a surprise OV to Florida in early October but by all accounts the Gators are not real players here.  The Tide are set to host him for their massive showdown against LSU over the 11/8 weekend, and with them most recently losing out in the Arik Gilbert sweepstakes they will certainly be amping up their efforts.  Washington has two more OVs to take, and he has consistently said that Tennessee will get one, and the last one at that.  Niedermeyer went and visited his high school during the Alabama week, likely further solidifying Tennessee’s position as a real contender.  That said, Oregon and Miami are also in the mix, and with recruiting – especially for a bigtime bluechipper and one from the West Coast at that – nothing is set in stone.  But the Vols will continue to fight here until the end.

The natural question of course is, “What should Tennessee do if they do not land Washington?”  The answer: Nothing.

Tennessee has gotten solid if unspectacular play from a trio of TEs this season, and returns six of the seven on the current roster, the lone exception being senior Dominick-Wood Anderson:

Austin Pope

Andrew Craig

Jacob Warren

Jackson Lowe

Sean Brown

Hunter Salmon

Pope has turned into an outstanding blocker at the position, and while his hands could (definitely) use some work he does have a knack for getting open.  Craig, a former walkon, has proven himself to also be a valuable piece in the run game.  The freshmen trio of Warren, Lowe, and Brown are all promising prospects, with Lowe and Brown redshirting this season after being Pruitt signees in the class of 2019 and Warren having played in two games thus far in his redshirt freshman season and like Lowe and Brown possessing tremendous size.  Salmon is a 6’5, 240 pound freshman preferred walkon from Alabama who picked Tennessee over a PWO offer from Stanford, among others, after playing mostly DE in high school and is a promising future rotational piece at the position.  Not listed is Princeton Fant, who has shifted between TE and WR due to numbers at the WR position but is an intriguing player who looks like a potential Chris Brown (remember him?) HB-type player.  Is that a TE room that’s going to win games on its own in 2020?  Probably not, at least without Washington in it.  But, especially with continued development of the three freshmen, can it be a cog in a winning team?  Yes.  And with the needs across the roster both in terms of talent and sheer numbers, foregoing another top target at a different position and instead using a precious scholarship on a second-tier TE target – again, there really aren’t any in the first place at least right now – would definitely be suboptimal. 

Further, the class of 2021 has two top-tier TE prospects who happen to be Tennessee natives in Jake Briningstool and Hudson Wolfe, both of whom have been to Knoxville (in Wolfe’s case, multiple times) and have been bigtime Vol targets for a while.  Both of them are going to be national recruits and both are also far from slam dunks for the Vols, but Tennessee should be big players in both of those respective recruitments. Bringingstool is currently the #108 player in the country per 247 Sports, and though he is a Michigan State legacy (whose father played for Nick Saban, no less) he appears to have real interest in the Vols – among his most recent tweets were retweets of Martavius French’s and Bryson Eason’s Tennessee commitments, a retweet of Jaden Springer’s Tennessee commitment, and then a random rewet of his own offer from Tennessee from back in May.  Wolfe is lower rated at #216 but is also being heavily recruited by elite programs from across the country.  He hails from a big Volunteer town – Savannah, TN – that is also home to current Vol Latrell Bumphus, and visited Knoxville for two games last season and has followed that up with three campus visits in 2019. 

Tennessee has enough bodies to get by in 2020, even without landing Washington.  And given that four of them (including a walkon) are currently freshmen there is a lot of future development to be had at the position.  With two bigtimers instate in 2021 to really focus on, and the larger needs elsewhere on the roster, the Vols should absolutely put all of their TE eggs in the Washington basket.   With Niedermeyer spearheading the recruitment and an improved onfield product potentially changing the narrative around the program, the Vols definitely have a shot here and win or lose in that recruitment that should be the only shot they take.

Tennessee-UAB: Head-to-head statistical rankings

Below is a look at Tennessee’s national stat rankings side-by-side with the corollary rankings for the UAB Blazers.

The first thing to note is this, and we’ll be saying it repeatedly this week: UAB’s strength of schedule is dead last in the FBS, 130th out of 130 teams. Tennessee’s is currently 12th. Therefore, all of the Blazers’ numbers are inflated. The following is presented in the regular format, but any valid takeaways will be in the form of what UAB has been doing well and not doing well against its competition. That information is put alongside what the Vols are and aren’t doing well, but trust the “advantages” information this week at your own risk.

Details below.

When the Vols have the ball

Where’s the opportunity?

UAB is apparently not likely to intercept the ball, which is good because last week notwithstanding, the Vols have been a little too generous in that regard.

Where’s the danger?

Once again, last week notwithstanding, the offense has not been the strength of the 2019 Tennessee Volunteers team. On the other hand, UAB’s resume against its current competition has been built on defense, and they are currently ranked in the Top 10 in seven defensive categories. They appear to be equally good defending the run and the pass.

Gameplan for the Vols on offense

Do what you do best and adjust as the results come in.

Vols on defense

Where’s the opportunity?

UAB apparently has a fondness for throwing interceptions, which is cool because Tennessee’s defense finds them particularly delicious. The Blazers appear marginally better on offense through the air, so this could be a fun matchup to watch, as they’ll likely lean on their strength but find it much tougher sledding than usual. UAB’s rushing offense doesn’t appear particularly troublesome.

Where’s the danger?

If there’s danger, it appears to be in the passing game, as that’s where they get most of their yards when they’re not throwing it to the other team. They haven’t allowed many sacks, so pressuring the quarterback may prove frustrating.

Gameplan for the Vols on defense

Play nickel. Intercept when possible, tackle in space if they catch it.

Special teams

I don’t really see much of anything here, although the Vols appear to have the advantage in most of the things that might matter, save net punting.

Turnovers and penalties

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Tennessee Vols statistical ranking trends – after South Carolina

After a big win against the South Carolina Gamecocks, complete with a bit of an offensive explosion and a second-half defensive shutout, how are the Vols’ statistical rankings trending now?

Offense

Currently doing well: Passing Yards per Completion

Needs attention: Passes Had Interception, Total Offense, Red Zone Offense, 4th Down Conversion Pct

Climbed out of the Bottom 30: Scoring Offense, First Downs Offense, Completion Percentage, Passing Offense

Fell out of the Top 30: Nothing

Climbed into the Top 30: Passing Yards per Completion

Fell into the Bottom 30: Nothing

Moderate improvement almost across the board last week, which is a good result against a good defense.

Defense

Currently doing well: Intercepting passes

Needs attention: First Downs Defense, 3rd Down Conversion Pct Defense, Tackles for Loss

Climbed out of the Bottom 30: 3rd Down Conversion Pct Defense

Fell out of the Top 30: Nothing.

Climbed into the Top 30: Nothing.

Fell into the Bottom 30: Nothing.

Mostly holding steady or slightly improving in most defensive categories.

Special Teams

Currently doing well: Punt Returns (woo!), Blocked Punts (woo!!), Kickoff Return Defense, Blocked Kicks

Needs attention: Net Punting, Kickoff Returns, Punt Return Defense

Weirdness. Tennessee’s really good at some things on special teams, but some areas we thought would be strengths (punting, primarily) are faltering. Somebody call the Colquitt Helpline.

Turnovers and Penalties

Currently doing well: Um . . .

Needs attention: Turnovers lost

On turnovers, the team appears good at getting, but bad at giving. Penalties were good early, but are oddly getting worse as the team is improving. I’m guessing there might be some sweet spot with penalties. You want to play both clean and aggressive, but those things may sometimes be at odds with each other.

The GRT Expected Win Total Machine: After South Carolina

Use the form below to calculate your expected win total for the rest of the season.

The GRT Expected Win Total Machine


My assessment

About those Vols: We’ve been getting glimpses of improvement for almost a month, but this week the thing grew legs and starting running amuck through the china shop. Everything is getting better, including both the offensive and defensive lines and overall team depth, the things that have plagued us most for far too many years. One thing we’ve learned through the entire ordeal is that progress isn’t usually linear, so there may still be bad days ahead, but the team is just so much more fun to watch now. You have to feel really good not just about the direction this thing is headed, but that it’s also now beginning to pick up speed and momentum.

Regarding the Vols’ past opponents: There wasn’t a lot of good data about Tennessee’s past opponents this week as many of them were off, one of them gave the game away on turnovers, and another one of them played Arkansas.

As for Tennessee’s future opponents, UAB and Vandy were both off, and Kentucky beat Missouri, making the Wildcats look better and the Tigers look worse.

With this week’s adjustments, I now have an expected win total of . . . 5.6, up from 4.7 last week. We’re rounding up to bowl eligibility now, y’all!

Here’s how I’ve tracked this season:

  • Preseason: 6.55
  • After Week 0: 6.6
  • After Week 1: 2.87
  • After Week 2: 2.37
  • After Week 3: 3.65
  • After Week 4: 2.9
  • After Week 5: 3.25
  • After Week 6: 3.85
  • After Week 7: 4.4
  • After Week 8: 4.7
  • After Week 9: 5.6

Details: I now have Kentucky and Missouri at 60% and UAB and Vanderbilt at 70%.

Here’s a table with my expectations this week:

Tennessee Volunteers currently

Current record: 3-5 (2-3), 4th in the SEC East

The Vols’ future opponents

UAB Blazers

Current record: 6-1 (3-1), 2nd in C-USA West

Off this week.

Kentucky Wildcats

Current record: 4-4 (2-4), 5th in the SEC East

Looked good with a wide receiver running from the quarterback position. May be one-dimensional, but that dimension is pretty good.

Missouri Tigers

Current record: 5-3 (2-2), 3rd in the SEC East

Two weeks ago, these guys looked like they were leading the face for the SEC East. Last week, they lost to Vanderbilt, which was coming off a loss to UNLV. This week, they just couldn’t get rolling in the rain against Kentucky with Kelly Bryant one-dimensional due to what looked like a bad hamstring. Over the next couple of games against No. 10 Georgia and No. 7 Florida, they’ll either get their second wind or fall completely apart.

Vanderbilt Commodores

Current record: 2-5 (1-3), 5th in the SEC East

Off this week.

The Vols’ past opponents

Georgia State Panthers

Current record: 6-2 (3-1), 2nd in the Sun Belt East

That “2-10 Sun Belt team” from Week 1 is actually a “6-2 Sun Belt team.”

BYU Cougars

Current record: 3-4

The Cougars were off this week.

Chattanooga Mocs

Current record: 4-4 (3-1), 3rd in the Southern Conference

Florida Gators

Current record: 7-1 (4-1), 1st in the SEC East

Off this week in advance of next week’s big showdown with Georgia.

Georgia Bulldogs

Current record: 6-1 (3-1), 2nd in the SEC East

Off this week, and smelling Gator meat.

Mississippi State Bulldogs

Current record: 3-5 (1-4), 6th in the SEC West

It’s still difficult to conclude much about Mississippi State, as this weekend’s loss to Texas A&M came at the hands of several turnovers. They get a bit of a reprieve next week with a game against Arkansas.

Alabama Crimson Tide

Current record: 8-0 (5-0), 1st in the SEC West

No Tua, no problem. Alabama led this one 41-0 at halftime before coasting home in the second half. It was just Arkansas, though, so you know. Both No. 1 Alabama and No. 2 LSU are off next week, and then they’ll meet in Tuscaloosa the following week. That should be fun.

South Carolina Gamecocks

Current record: 3-5 (2-4), 5th in the SEC East

What about you? Where are your expectations for the Vols now?

Great to see all these people out here getting exactly what they deserve

I love it.

In November of 2016, with the defense depleted by injury and the Vols still in the hunt for the SEC East and the Sugar Bowl, Butch Jones and Mike DeBord went full throttle on offense. The result was the best offense in college football in yards per play in November at 8.96, with all four games featuring offensive performances better than 7.70 yards per play. (Stats via SportSource Analytics)

I point that out because today, the Vols had 485 yards of offense at 7.13 yards per play. Other than in November of 2016, 7.13 yards per play is the best a Tennessee offense has done against a power five team this decade.

Not the first two months of 2016. Not the 2015 team that was a few plays away from a shot at the College Football Playoff. Not Josh Dobbs’ coming out party at South Carolina in 2014. And nothing Tyler Bray and friends did against power five competition in 2012.

Fittingly, you have to go back to Jonathan Crompton against Georgia in 2009 (7.38 yards per play). That’s the most unlikely performance from a Tennessee quarterback I’ve ever seen. Today might be number two.

It’s quarterbacks, plural. Jauan Jennings will live forever in Knoxville. Clearly not content with already having the two most memorable plays of the entire decade, Jennings’ legend now belongs to his entire career. I’m not sure how much more we’ll see him in the wildcat this season – let’s see who’s healthy and who’s not – but if you’re looking for the embodiment of giving one’s all for Tennessee, it’s #15.

We’ve been waiting all year for Jarrett Guarantano to have a Jonathan Crompton moment. It took a minute. The Vols again failed to put the ball in the end zone on an early red zone visit, but atoned via Marquez Callaway’s punt return. When a long South Carolina drive ended in a touchdown after multiple attempts from the one, the Vols were down 14-10 with three minutes left before halftime. Maybe the circumstances were right, maybe last week helped him more than hurt him, maybe who knows. But Guarantano uncorked two completions to Jennings for 75 yards and a score. And after South Carolina punched in a quick score to take a 21-17 halftime lead, Guarantano came out in the third quarter with a 48-yard strike to Marquez Callaway.

Brent Cimaglia missed the ensuing field goal, Tennessee’s surest thing failing them. The Gamecocks had the ball and the lead. The oh-no’s were creeping.

Then the defense produced what would be the first of four second half three-and-outs. And Guarantano responded with 22 yards to Josh Palmer, eight more to Palmer, and a 19-yard teardrop to Jennings for six.

https://twitter.com/Vol_Football/status/1188221776511172608

Guarantano was injured on the play, and did not return. Let’s hope it’s not his last throw in a Tennessee uniform – the opposite of what some of us were saying after his last snap last week – but no play summed up his career more than this one: third-and-long, stands in and takes a huge shot, and delivers a big play downfield.

UPDATE:

Without JG, the Vols went back to J.T. Shrout. Jim Chaney went wildcat with Jennings, Shrout to Palmer to nine, wildcat with Jennings, and then Shrout to Marquez Callaway for 55 yards wait what

Shrout later attempted four straight passes on the drive that extended the lead with a Cimaglia field goal. Chaney stayed aggressive and it worked like a charm. Shrout – the third-string quarterback – finished 7-of-11 for 122 yards and a touchdown, no picks. If you’ll recall before Brian Maurer’s first start, the first start as mid-season replacements for JG, Dobbs, Peterman, and Worley all yieled zero touchdowns. Maurer, check. Shrout, check. I tweeted this during the game, but that QB competition next spring is going to be all kinds of fun.

But suddenly, there’s plenty of fun to go around in present day too.

Did I mention South Carolina scored on the first play of the game? Or Daniel Bituli’s 14174 tackles? Or that Tennessee’s quarterbacks – neither of them Brian Maurer – combined to go 18-of-30 for 351 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions wait what

So, okay. We’ll fire up the expected win total machine on Monday after we’re done celebrating and not apt to pick the Vols at 100% to sweep November. It felt like there could not possibly be a trap game for the Vols in the next five years after losing to Georgia State, but LOOK OUT, here comes 6-1 UAB off a bye week! It’s a trap!

Any corners turned this season must be seen only in hindsight after our September. But these Vols gave themselves the opportunity to look back at the end of this season and point to the month of October: the early promise against Georgia, the precision against Mississippi State, the unexpected pain of coming close at Alabama, and now the passion and power of a night like tonight.

And if you keep looking around at other year twos, there aren’t that many nights like tonight.

What was lost can always be found. The Vols have given themselves a chance to save their season, and may have found themselves along the way. We’ll see if they can indeed get it all the way home.

But tonight, it’s chicken for dinner, any way you like it.

Go Vols.