Pruitt’s Track Record of Talent Evaluation Reason to be Optimistic on New Commitment Kyree Miller

Tennessee received a commitment from it’s 4th OL in the 2020 class when Kyree Miller went public with his pledge on Tuesday.  Fresh off his official visit to Knoxville this past weekend, Miller didn’t need to wait any longer before jumping into the boat.  At 6’4 and ~360 pounds, Miller is a massive prospect who likely projects somewhere along the interior of the OL. 

The fact that he committed to Tennessee shouldn’t come as a huge surprise given that the Vols are far and away his best offer among the likes of SMU, Colorado State, and UTEP.  What may be surprising, and perhaps even disappointing on the surface for Vols fans is that Tennessee was willing to take him this relatively early in the process.  Having just hosted 4-star RJ Adams on an unofficial visit, just offered 3-to-play-3 JUCO Jeremy Flax, and presumably still in the mix for Memphis-native and Texas A&M commitment Chris Morris, taking Miller represents a calculation from Tennessee’s staff that not only is Miller a future SEC OL but also that the chances of landing one of those aforementioned OL wasn’t worth foregoing just taking Miller now.*

Is that the right approach?  Only time will tell.  What we do know about Miller is that he’s turned himself into a legitimate SEC prospect by dropping his weight by nearly 70 pounds since last season, when he tipped the scales at around 430.  That shows a pretty high level of dedication and discipline if nothing else, especially for a 17 year old.  When looking at his senior year film, it is clear that he moves incredibly well for that incredible size.  He’s not a sprinter by any means but he is used as a pulling guard quite a bit and you actually see him getting to the 2nd level quite a bit.  Combine that with a real nasty mentality (notably shared by all of his OL commitment peers) and that sheer size that he effectively turns into power when engaged with a defender, and he is a really nice looking longer-term prospect.  Particularly when projecting a few years out with college level coaching a more importantly Tennessee’s Strength & Conditioning program.  He’s pretty clearly not a Darnell Wright/Wanya Morris caliber prospect, at least early on, but the good news is that Tennessee don’t need that.  Frankly, he might not even be a prospect on the level of a Morris or Adams, though you never know until they get to college especially at a position as difficult to evaluate as OL.  But with the depth and talent that Tennessee has returning next season – it’s reasonable to say that all of Tennessee’s 2020 OL signees won’t be called upon and therefore will redshirt anyway. 

Another reason for optimism when it comes to Miller’s long-term future is the track record of Pruitt and Co’s talent evaluation.  As we’ve noted before, Pruitt’s recruiting philosophy revolves around two things: 1) bluechippers, for whom he’s willing to go head to head with the best of the best programs in the country, and 2) underrecruited prospects who he and his staff have evaluated and judged to be capable of helping Tennessee contend of championships, other offers be damned.  He’s landed his share of the former, many of whom are littered over the field this season as true freshmen, redshirt freshmen, and sophomores.  But he’s also not been afraid to pull the trigger on the latter, and so far the success rate is pretty darn high.  Guys like Kenneth George, Jahmir Johnson, Kurrott Garland, Cedric Tillman, Jerrod Means, Darrell Middleton, Roman Harrison, and Kenny Solomon were all either lightly recruited all the way through the process or discovered first by Tennessee before landing more big offers, and are now playing roles large and small for a resurgent program.  In the 2020 class, Tennessee took a commitment from 3-star Jimmy Calloway when his only other offer was from Georgia Tech as 247Sports’ #787 overall prospect. He’s now a 4-star, ranked the nation’s #203 best prospect, and the Vols are going to have to fight off Oklahoma and very possibly Georgia for him.  Point being, while Pruitt hasn’t batted 1.000 when it comes to under the radar evals, his track record makes you think he knows what he’s doing in this regard.  Whether Miller turns out to be that kind of prospect probably won’t be fully known for a full years, he brings a lot of traits that make one think the likelihood is high.  And in a program still just trying to get bigger and better in the trenches, this looks like a pretty good bet.

*It is not beyond the realm of possibility that Tennessee ends up with an extra spot at the 11th hour and takes a 5th OL as a Best Player Available.  It just seems unlikely at this point

Tennessee-Kentucky: Head-to-head statistical rankings

Below is a look at Tennessee’s national stat rankings side-by-side with the counterpart rankings for the Kentucky Wildcats. Bottom line for the Vols this week: Run the ball, stop the run, and all eyes on Lynn Bowden.

Details below.

When the Vols have the ball

Where’s the opportunity?

We might be okay on third downs? We might be able to run the ball? With Tennessee’s offense struggling, there’s not much to work with here. Fortunately, Kentucky’s not especially good defending the run or at intercepting passes, so while those things aren’t necessarily strengths for the Vols, at least it’s not weakness against strength in those categories. And the Vols offense isn’t bad on third downs and will be going against a Wildcats defense that is. Kind of.

Where’s the danger?

Where else? The Red Zone, and not just because the Vols are in the Bottom 30 there. Kentucky is nearly in the Top 30 at keeping folks knocking on the door out of the house. Also, they don’t allow many passing yards (and we don’t get many) and they’re tough on first downs (and we’re not.) Boo.

Gameplan for the Vols on offense

Hope that you can run the ball and then convert on third down.

Vols on defense

Where’s the opportunity?

Well, this is more like it, as there’s a whole lotta blood in Kentucky’s offensive stat rankings. Although the Vols defense isn’t yet elite at anything other than intercepting passes, it does appear to have advantages nearly across the board, and where it doesn’t, it’s nearly a push.

Tennessee should make things very difficult for a Kentucky offense really not accomplishing much through the air and should be able to turn all guns on the ground game.

Where’s the danger?

The run game. Kentucky’s putting up over 200 yards per game on the ground, ranking 32nd nationally and 5th in the SEC. Wide receiver/quarterback Lynn Bowden is leading the way with nearly 75 rushing yards per game, and he not only leads the conference in all-purpose yards, he’s 5th in the nation.

And he’s not alone. True running backs Asim Rose and Kavosiey Smoke are adding 64 and 43 yards per game to the total. If the Wildcats are going to have success, it’s likely going to come from some combination of those three.

The other danger is game-planning for a one-dimensional attack led by Bowden at QB only to have quarterback Sawyer Smith return from injury instead. Having to contend with Bowden out at receiver would double the dimension, stretch the field, and make more room for Rose and Smoke to operate in the running game. I think the Vols would still be alright against that offense, but that could prove to be more difficult.

Gameplan for the Vols on defense

If it’s Bowden at quarterback, turn all the cannons on him and whichever running back is in the game. If it’s Smith, fight on both fronts but still focus primarily on stopping the run first.

Special teams

Beware a field position battle with these guys, as punter Max Duffy is 2nd in the nation in net punting with an average of 48.8 yards. The team is first in the nation in net punting.

Also, when kicking off, Paxton Brooks better get it over Bowden’s head and into the end zone for a touchback. If Bowden’s receiving punts, the best play would probably be to kick it as deep as possible but definitely out of bounds.

Turnovers and penalties

Turnovers. They’re important.

Tennessee Vols statistical ranking trends – after UAB

After winning three of the last four games, how are the Vols’ statistical rankings trending now?

Offense

Currently doing well: Passing Yards per Completion

Needs attention: Total Offense, Passes Had Intercepted, Red Zone Offense, 4th Down Conversion Pct

Climbed out of the Bottom 30: Nothing

Fell out of the Top 30: Nothing

Climbed into the Top 30: Nothing

Fell into the Bottom 30: Nothing

I’m calling that “status quo.” Only minor movement, including in the categories we want to see improvement. Is it possible that UAB really does have a good defense, or are the Vols stuck in the mud? Tune in next week!

Defense

Currently doing well: Intercepting passes, 4th Down Conversion Pct Defense

Needs attention: Same as last week — First Downs Defense, 3rd Down Conversion Pct Defense, Tackles for Loss

Climbed out of the Bottom 30: Nothing in the Bottom 30 last week

Fell out of the Top 30: Nothing.

Climbed into the Top 30: 4th Down Conversion Pct Defense

Fell into the Bottom 30: Team Tackles for Loss

Don’t look now, but this team is elite at intercepting passes. Woo. The only real bad news here is the lack of improvement on first downs, third downs, and TFLs. UAB did max protect most of the night, though, so the TFL number isn’t exactly unexpected.

Special Teams

Currently doing well: Punt Returns (woo!), Kickoff Return Defense, Blocked Punts (woo!!), Blocked Kicks

Needs attention: Net Punting, Kickoff Returns, Punt Return Defense

Again with The Weirdness. On special teams, Tennessee’s extremely good at some things and not very good at all at others.

Turnovers and Penalties

Currently doing well: Turnovers Gained

Needs attention: Turnovers lost

On turnovers, the news isn’t terrible overall, but with the team intercepting passes like me at a candy store, a national Turnover Margin ranking of only 49th means something is equally as bad. See “Turnovers Lost” next to that “99.”

Penalties appeared to improve this week.

Tennessee 30 UAB 7 – Hope vs The Home Stretch

It’s easy, and perhaps now natural, to take a Tennessee performance like this against a group-of-five school and lament what it wasn’t. A hallmark of Tennessee’s post-2007 swoon is some combination of inability and unwillingness to dominate mid-majors. Starting with a four-point win over Northern Illinois and a loss to Wyoming in 2008, every single season has included a “meh” moment. Some calls are closer than others: UAB in 2010, Troy in 2012, South Alabama in 2013, UMass in 2017, and of course Georgia State in September. But these years also include plenty of scores like 24-0 over North Texas, 28-19 over Ohio, and 14-3 over Charlotte last year.

UAB was 6-1 and 16-3 over its last 19, but it was clear from the outset the 2019 Blazers were painfully short on competition. Tennessee’s defense dominated, included a record-tying performance from Bryce Thompson. Tennessee’s offense had their moments, but didn’t capitalize the way you wanted with such great field position. The red zone performance was more of the unfortunate same: five trips but only three touchdowns, leaving the Vols with only 14 touchdowns on 32 trips this season, 126th nationally in red zone touchdown percentage. (Stats via SportSource Analytics)

That remains Tennessee’s greatest statistical weakness, and an important one in these last three games. The decision to play Jarrett Guarantano most of the night, even with a surgically-repaired non-throwing hand, resurfaced some of our anxiety at quarterback after a brief spark from Brian Maurer and, truly, one of the best passing performances of the decade from Guarantano and J.T. Shrout just last week. Last night’s performance makes last week look even better, but mixes in old fears with new hopes.

But viewed through the lens of the entire season, Tennessee is still moving hard and fast in the right direction. In that long list of mid-major disappointments, you get lines like -22.5 in a 14-3 win over Charlotte, -28 in a 17-13 win over UMass, -27 in a 28-19 win over Ohio, etc.

Last night, due both to Tennessee’s start and UAB’s consistency, the Vols were only -13.5, and won by 23. The Vols have now covered the spread four weeks in a row for the first time since 2010, and just the 10th time in the last 35 years (closing lines via covers.com). Tennessee made it five weeks in a row at the end of the 2010 regular season thanks to Tyler Bray, who helped the Vols cover in defeat at South Carolina, then went 4-0 straight up and against Vegas in November. Before that, the last time Tennessee covered five straight weeks: the first five games of 1998.

Vegas, like the rest of us, hasn’t had a good feel for Tennessee all year. The Vols were overvalued by 62.5 points in their first four FBS games, and have now been undervalued by 61 points in the last four games. It’s a tangible sign of an actual turnaround. But the Vols have to get this thing to six wins to still call it that in the off-season.

Tennessee was 4-5 headed into this stretch last season, but got what felt like a revelation in the 24-7 win over #12 Kentucky. And then it turned out the prophets were false.

This time, there will be no revelations unless Missouri creates one first: Kentucky is 4-4, Missouri 5-3 and set to face Georgia and Florida back-to-back, and Vanderbilt is 2-6. The journey ventured through the upside-down, but the end result we wanted in preseason – rise above the SEC East’s second tier, close the gap on your biggest rivals – is here for the taking. The turnaround narrative – and its chance to last us all off-season, and spend eight months thinking about what will be instead of what could’ve been – is alive. Whether the Vols cover or not, play Guarantano or not, or any number of the uncertainties that have defined this season, the Vols need two wins in three games. Three in three, and I still believe the Vols can be in line for a much nicer bowl opportunity than we thought even in preseason.

Hope lives, even if we saw some glimpses of what tried to take it away against UAB. The Vols still played better than expected all things considered, and by Vegas’ standards have done so more consistently now than in nine years. The margins remain small and the questions many, but for the last month Tennessee has found the right answer again and again. Hope lives. It should probably hang on tight.

Go Vols.

The GRT Expected Win Total Machine: After UAB

Use the form below to calculate your expected win total for the rest of the season.

The GRT Expected Win Total Machine


My assessment

About the Vols: I wouldn’t characterize my concern about UAB this weekend as worry, but I was quite wary. Even that was misplaced, though, as Tennessee looked mostly really good Saturday night against the Blazers. With three games to go, they can afford only one slip up for bowl eligibility, and they have a chance to run the table and meet preseason expectations. If they do that, it will mean that they both lost two games and won two games they shouldn’t have. I’m thinking they have a chance, as it appears they will be favorites against Kentucky and Vanderbilt, and they may well be favorites against Missouri after the Tigers play Georgia and Florida in consecutive weeks.

I’ve made no adjustments this week, but with UAB becoming 100% instead of 70%, I now have an expected win total of . . . 5.9.

Here’s how I’ve tracked this season:

  • Preseason: 6.55
  • After Week 0: 6.6
  • After Week 1: 2.87
  • After Week 2: 2.37
  • After Week 3: 3.65
  • After Week 4: 2.9
  • After Week 5: 3.25
  • After Week 6: 3.85
  • After Week 7: 4.4
  • After Week 8: 4.7
  • After Week 9: 5.6
  • After Week 10: 5.9

Details: I kept everybody right where they were at last week: Kentucky and Missouri at 60%, and Vanderbilt at 70%.

Here’s a table with my expectations this week:

Tennessee Volunteers currently

Current record: 4-5 (2-3), 4th in the SEC East

The Vols’ future opponents

Kentucky Wildcats

Current record: 4-4 (2-4), 6th in the SEC East

Kentucky was off this week while the Vols took on UAB.

Missouri Tigers

Current record: 5-3 (2-2), 3rd in the SEC East

The Tigers were also off this week, but they’re coming off two consecutive losses to Vanderbilt and Kentucky and now have two consecutive games against Georgia and Florida. They’re likely to come to Neyland on November 23 hurting, both physically and mentally.

Vanderbilt Commodores

Current record: 2-6 (1-4), 7th in the SEC East

Vanderbilt looked good early this week against South Carolina, but faded fast.

The Vols’ past opponents

Georgia State Panthers

Current record: 6-2 (3-1), 2nd in the Sun Belt East

Off this week.

BYU Cougars

Current record: 4-4

Good win for the Cougars this week against Utah State.

Chattanooga Mocs

Current record: 4-5 (3-2), 4th in the Southern Conference

Florida Gators

Current record: 7-2 (4-2), 2nd in the SEC East

This year’s edition of the Florida-Georgia game was a good one with both teams showing like they deserved their Top 10 rankings.

Georgia Bulldogs

Current record: 7-1 (4-1), 1st in the SEC East

Hard-fought game for Georgia this week against the Gators, but Jake Fromm was money on third down. Former Tennessee tight end Eli Wolf sealed the deal with a huge catch for a first down that allowed the Bulldogs to run out the clock.

Mississippi State Bulldogs

Current record: 4-5 (2-4), 5th in the SEC West

Kylin Hill, the SEC’s leading rusher, had 21 carries for 234 yards and 3 touchdowns against the Razorbacks this week. Against Tennessee, he had 11 carries for 13 yards. Woo.

Alabama Crimson Tide

Current record: 8-0 (5-0), 1st in the SEC West

Off in advance of a big showdown with LSU next week.

South Carolina Gamecocks

Current record: 4-5 (3-4), 4th in the SEC East

Expected result this week for the Gamecocks.

UAB Blazers

Current record: 6-2 (3-1), 2nd in C-USA West

What about you? Where are your expectations for the Vols now?

Gameday Gameplan for Tennessee fans: UAB

It’s Gameday on Rocky Top, with the Vols (3-5, 2-3) hoping to leverage last week’s big upset over the South Carolina Gamecocks into a November to remember, starting with a win over the UAB Blazers (6-1, 3-1). Here’s the Gameday Gameplan for Tennessee fans. Where and when to find the Tennessee-UAB game on TV, what other games to watch as well, and what to listen to and read as you wait for kickoff.

When is the Vols game, and what TV channel is it on?

Here are the particulars for today’s Tennessee game:

The best games for Vols fans to watch today

Today’s Gameday Gameplan for Tennessee fans features the Vols-Blazers on ESPNU at 7:00, but there are several other games of interest to Vols fans as well. Here’s our list of games to watch today, curated with a nice, big spoonful of Big Orange:

Away Home Time TV How Why
NOON
#5 Penn State #13 Minnesota 12:00 PM ABC Live / Channel Hop Top 15 matchup
Vanderbilt #10 Florida 12:00 PM ESPN DVR / Channel Hop Future Vols opponent
AFTERNOON
#1 LSU #2 Alabama 3:30 PM CBS Live No. 1 vs. No. 2
EVENING
Missouri #6 Georgia 7:00 PM ESPN Live until Vols, then DVR Future Vols opponent
Tennessee Kentucky 7:30 PM SECN Live Go Vols!

And here’s a searchable version of this week’s entire college football TV schedule:

Date Away Home Time TV
10/31/19 West Virginia #12 Baylor 8:00 PM ESPN
10/31/19 Georgia Southern #20 Appalachian State 8:00 PM ESPNU
11/1/19 Navy UConn 8:00 PM ESPN2
11/2/19 #14 Michigan Maryland 12:00 PM ABC
11/2/19 NC State #23 Wake Forest 12:00 PM ESPN
11/2/19 Houston UCF 12:00 PM ESPN2
11/2/19 Buffalo Eastern Michigan 12:00 PM
11/2/19 Northern Illinois Central Michigan 12:00 PM CBSSN
11/2/19 Nebraska Purdue 12:00 PM FOX
11/2/19 Boston College Syracuse 12:00 PM ACCN
11/2/19 UTSA Texas A&M 12:00 PM SECN
11/2/19 Old Dominion Florida International 12:00 PM ESPN+
11/2/19 Liberty UMass 12:00 PM
11/2/19 Akron Bowling Green 2:00 PM ESPN+
11/2/19 Virginia Tech #16 Notre Dame 2:30 PM NBC
11/2/19 Troy Coastal Carolina 3:00 PM ESPN3
11/2/19 #8 Georgia #6 Florida 3:30 PM CBS
11/2/19 #22 Kansas State Kansas 3:30 PM FS1
11/2/19 Arkansas State UL Monroe 3:30 PM ESPNU
11/2/19 Marshall Rice 3:30 PM
11/2/19 UTEP North Texas 3:30 PM NFL
11/2/19 Army Air Force 3:30 PM CBSSN
11/2/19 Middle Tennessee Charlotte 3:30 PM ESPN3
11/2/19 UNLV Colorado State 3:30 PM
11/2/19 Miami Florida State 3:30 PM ABC
11/2/19 TCU Oklahoma State 3:30 PM ESPN
11/2/19 Rutgers Illinois 3:30 PM BTN
11/2/19 Wofford #4 Clemson 4:00 PM ACCN
11/2/19 #9 Utah Washington 4:00 PM FOX
11/2/19 Mississippi State Arkansas 4:00 PM SECN
11/2/19 Pittsburgh Georgia Tech 4:00 PM ACCNX
11/2/19 Florida Atlantic Western Kentucky 4:00 PM ESPN+
11/2/19 Tulsa Tulane 4:00 PM ESPN2
11/2/19 Oregon State Arizona 4:30 PM PAC12
11/2/19 Texas State Louisiana 5:00 PM ESPN+
11/2/19 Ole Miss #11 Auburn 7:00 PM ESPN
11/2/19 #17 Cincinnati East Carolina 7:00 PM CBSSN
11/2/19 UAB Tennessee 7:00 PM ESPNU
11/2/19 Northwestern Indiana 7:00 PM FS1
11/2/19 #15 SMU #24 Memphis 7:30 PM ABC
11/2/19 Vanderbilt South Carolina 7:30 PM SECN
11/2/19 Virginia North Carolina 7:30 PM ACCN
11/2/19 #7 Oregon USC 8:00 PM FOX
11/2/19 Colorado UCLA 9:00 PM PAC12
11/2/19 BYU Utah State 10:00 PM ESPN2
11/2/19 #21 Boise State San Jose State 10:30 PM CBSSN
11/2/19 New Mexico Nevada 10:30 PM ESPNU
11/2/19 Fresno State Hawai'i 11:59 PM

GRT games and contests

While you’re waiting for the games to begin, make sure that you submit your answers to the GRT Guessing Game questions and update your picks for the GRT Pick ‘Em.

GRT game-week audio

Here’s the GRT Podcast from earlier this week:

And here is Will’s regular Friday appearance with Josh Ward and Heather Harrington on WNML’s Sports 180.

Pre-game prep

To catch up on your pre-game reading, have a look at our game preview posts from earlier this week:

Go Vols!

For Our Next Trick…

If J.T. Shrout attempts four more passes – seems likely at this point – it will be the third time in the post-Fulmer era the Vols had three quarterbacks attempt at least 25 passes. It happened at the end of the disastrous 2017 season via Will McBride (17-of-40 in two appearances). And it happened in the middle of 2011 with Tyler Bray’s broken thumb, and Derek Dooley’s decision to pull Justin Worley’s redshirt. Worley did get a win against MTSU. But in terms of this kind of success against meaningful competition, you have to go back to 2004 with Brent Schaeffer, Erik Ainge, and Rick Clausen.

The 2019 Vols aren’t going to win the SEC East (but we can still Lloyd Christmas it another week if Georgia wins tomorrow!) but can still engineer an incredible turnaround. One way to measure that: what the Vols are currently doing against Vegas. After losing as a 24.5-point favorite to Georgia State and a three-point favorite to BYU, the Vols were +12.5 at Florida and lost by 31. That’s a 57-point swing in the first three FBS games (closing lines via covers.com), plus another five in losing to Georgia by 29 at +24.

Those five points are as close as Vegas has come on any Tennessee game this year. Because since then, the Vols beat Mississippi State as an underdog by 10, covered easily against Alabama, and beat South Carolina as an underdog by 20.

Two wins as an underdog of at least +4 isn’t new: the Vols did that last year against Auburn and Kentucky. But Vegas has now undervalued the Vols by a combined 51.5 points in the last three weeks.

It’s just the fifth time this decade the Vols have covered the spread three weeks in a row. Tennessee did it twice in 2015, and Josh Dobbs did it himself in 2014 (Alabama, South Carolina, Kentucky). For the (hopefully) best comparison here, you have to go all the way back to Tyler Bray’s emergence: his appearance at South Carolina in 2010 and subsequent 4-0 run to end the regular season is the last time the Vols covered the spread at least four weeks in a row, getting to five in that run. Tennessee’s 52-14 win over Ole Miss in that stretch when the Vols were just -2.5 is the most I’ve seen UT undervalued this decade.

As the Vols (currently -12) look to make it four in a row this week, the opponent lends itself to additional mystery:

Joel’s statsy preview machine agrees with chaos this week. If you’re looking for regression to the mean, this probably isn’t the week for that since no one really knows what the mean is with UAB. It’s one more element of unpredictability in an already-massively-unpredictable season that might feature three quarterbacks and a wide receiver taking snaps at quarterback.

In such a time as this, the Vols should again look to their defense and run game to carry them; we learned last week that can look much more exciting than you think. Will we get the game we thought we’d see against Georgia State? Will UAB – winners of 16 of their last 19 games! – parlay that spirit into another competitive game? Will the Vols commit to a rotation between quarterbacks (whether it’s all three or only two with Guarantano’s wrist), or start one and ride him as long as he’s hot? Will that kind of plan – one bad throw away from the bench – affect the young quarterbacks?

Bowl expectations are riding high – 5.72 is the updated community average in our expected win total machine – but the most reasonable expectation truly remains the unexpected. Hopefully that manifests itself as another great performance from multiple quarterbacks and another Saturday to celebrate.

The Gameday on Rocky Top Guessing Game: 2019 Week 10

It’s Friday before Gameday, and that means it’s time for the Gameday on Rocky Top Guessing Game. If you’ve played before, you know the deal, and you can skip to the questions below. If not, catch up here.

Week 10 Bonus! Five questions this week! Get ’em while they’re hot!

Let’sa go!

  1. Submit your answers to our questions below.
  2. Click the “Submit” button.
  3. Copy and paste your answers in the comments below.

Good luck!

Where Does Tennessee Turn Now for Pass-Rushers?

With the flip of prized commitment BJ Ojulari to LSU over the weekend, Tennessee is now left with a large hole in what is otherwise an outstanding recruiting class.  With nine spots still remaining, the Vols have added 16 high quality players that will collectively will meaningfully improve the roster starting next season.  However, as potential All-SEC senior Darrell Taylor has only 5 games left in an Orange and White uniform (yes, I’m projecting a bowl game) and even likely backfills Deandre Johnson and Kivon Bennett – both of whom appear to be developing rapidly and look like good options in 2020 – being relatively near graduation, this class in particular needs impact pass rushers in the worst way.  The fact that Ojulari is actually the second decommitment in the class from a high quality player at that particular position of need after JUCO Jordan Davis flipped to Mississippi State over the summer quite simply stings.

That said, if we know anything about Head Coach Jeremy Pruitt it’s that he’s not one to cry over spilled milk but instead will roll up his sleeves and figure it out.  Especially in recruiting.  So where will the Vols look to now in order to add at least one pass rusher?*

*The assumption here is that Tyler Baron will commit to and sign with Tennessee but that considering he’s already 6-4, 250 pounds he’s more likely to end up as a SDE than a WDE or OLB 

Prospects Committed Elsewhere

Sa’vell Small (UW)

Simeon Barrow (MSU)

Khari Coleman (KU)

Brandon Williams (UVA)

Deontae Craig (Iowa)

Morven Joseph (FSU)

Jasheen Davis (WF)

Of that list, Smalls is the most highly coveted, and despite his commitment to homestate Washington the Vols are no doubt still trying there.  Some thought Tennessee actually led headed into the season, so he might be one that Tennessee and lead recruiter Brian Niedermeyer circle back on now that the season is on the upswing again.  Barrow is a 6-3, 250 pound DL who, like Baron, might in fact be destined to be more of an interior DL.  But he’s got some explosiveness off the edge and real functional strength that allows him to overpower OTs when he’s not blowing by them.  Importantly, he earned a Vol offer in February and though Tennessee was likely not ready to take him when he committed to Michigan State – known for their Defense – over the summer, the lines of communication have remained open.  Barrow is definitely not a Spartan lock, as he just took an OV to Virginia Tech and has a tentative official visit to Knoxville set for this weekend.  He could very well be one to watch down the road.  Coleman and Williams are both NOLA natives known for their pass-rushing skills.  Coleman has become his high school’s career sack leader this season and at 6’2-6’3 and closer to 220 pounds is more of a speed-rush type prospect with good length to go with his quickness of the edge.  He seems relatively firm in his Jayhawk pledge but if the Vols push one would think they could wedge themselves in there.  Williams is having a good season for Peyton Manning’s alma mater and was once a real target for the Vols.  Craig is a guy Tennessee liked earlier in the summer but seemed to back off a bit but again might come back to in order to see if there’s any interest.  Joseph was a Florida commitment who flipped to the Noles but had some interest in Tennessee at one point and has talked recently about taking other visits, to UT included, while Davis got an early season Vol offer but so far has remained solid to the Deacons.

Of all of those, Barrow seems to be the prospect with the highest chance of flipping to Tennessee while Smalls is of course the biggest prize.  The Vols will likely try and get back in the mix with as many of the above as possible in order to see what else they can shake loose.

Uncommitted Prospects

Jimari Butler

Johnathan Horton

Two prospects who share quite a few similarities: Gulf Coast area kids (Butler is from Mobile, Horton from Baton Rouge), both are new to the game of football after excelling on the hardwood, both are in the 6-5+, 210-220 pound range, and both have blown up on the recruiting trail after their respective films showing them terrorizing opponents off the edge got out.  The Vols were in relatively early for both, offering Butler in September before the likes of Nebraska, TCU, and Ole Miss have stepped to the table, and giving Horton just his 4th offer in mid-October after Baylor, UVA, and Arizona had offered. 

These two arguably have higher upsides than most of the players on the “Committed Elsewhere” list, as their sheer measurables and athleticism combined with bigtime production despite lack of experience just screams massive ceiling.  Butler visited Knoxville unofficially for the UGA game and was just in Baton Rouge for LSU’s game against Auburn (who is also sniffing around) so there is clearly reciprocal interest between the two parties.  Horton seemingly has yet to really visit anywhere – his recruitment is that new.  These two are less likely to be instant impact players than some others on the board – though you never know – but both look like they have real potential to be devastating SEC pass rushers in due time.  It will be very interesting to see how their respective recruitments play out in general and specifically as it relates to Tennessee.

It wouldn’t be surprising to see the Vols circle back to multiple players on the lists above and even unearth new prospects who have that premium skill of getting to the quarterback.  But regardless of who they are, Tennessee needs to add at least one more if not multiple pass-rushers to its 2020 class.