Category Archives: Football

Here’s what we think after the release of the final College Football Playoff poll before the real thing on Sunday:

https://twitter.com/CFBPlayoff/status/1202018158338555906

Let’s start with the simple: if Ohio State, LSU, and Clemson win, they’re in. For Tennessee’s purposes, it may not matter if the committee chooses Utah or Oklahoma if they both win. But because Baylor is ranked six spots ahead of Oregon, it’s better for the Vols if Oklahoma earns the #4 spot.

That scenario would give you the top three and the Sooners in the playoff. The Sugar Bowl would take Georgia (assuming the Dawgs don’t drop below a Florida team they beat) and Baylor.

The Rose Bowl would take Utah and either Wisconsin or Penn State. Assuming a team that does not play this week will not jump another team that does not play this week, Florida has the advantage for the Orange Bowl by being ranked ahead of Penn State, and would probably play Virginia (if there are zero non-Clemson, non-Notre Dame ACC teams ranked in the final playoff poll, the Orange Bowl gets to pick itself, but Virginia is the most deserving no matter what happens against the Tigers).

From there, the Cotton Bowl will take the next-highest-ranked team. And this is where everything will get decided as far as Tennessee and the Outback Bowl: is that next-highest-ranked team Wisconsin or Auburn? Or, if the committee takes Utah over Oklahoma, is it Wisconsin, Auburn, or Baylor?

If it’s the Tigers, the Tua-less Tide go to Orlando, and Tennessee’s path to the Outback Bowl is clear. If Wisconsin is ranked ahead of Auburn in the final poll (or Baylor if the committee puts Utah in the playoff), Alabama and Auburn should split the Citrus and Outback, sending the Vols back to the Jacksonville conversation.

Also, if it’s Wisconsin, the Big Ten bowl opponents cycle up, meaning you’re not going to catch anything better than Indiana or an ACC trade-off in the Gator Bowl. If you want to see the Vols level up, it looks like that can only happen in Tampa now.

So, in order of what would be most helpful for Tennessee:

• Ohio State blows out #8 Wisconsin enough for them to fall behind #11 Auburn in the final poll
• The committee takes Oklahoma for its final playoff spot
• Or, the committee takes Utah, and Oklahoma blows out #7 Baylor enough for them to fall behind #11 Auburn in the final poll (an odd scenario probably requiring Utah to simultaneously blow out Oregon)

You get that, you should get Tampa. The Athletic reported earlier today that the Citrus Bowl was locked in on Michigan, meaning Minnesota is still the most likely opponent in the Outback Bowl.

At the start of fall camp, our GRT Expected Win Total Machine came back at an average of 6.9 wins. We ran it again the week leading up to Georgia State, and August optimism drove it north to 7.2.

And then it hung out in the twos and threes for a while.

But here, at the end, Tennessee may have gotten the most bang for their 7-5 buck: a 6-1 run, the only loss a could’ve-been at Bama, and lessons one might not have learned along any other way. Not all 7-5’s are created equal; if you’re looking for the one that helps Tennessee most in 2020, this might be it.

But first, the final piece of 2019’s puzzle. And there’s a chance it too could be the one that helps the Vols most next season: January 1 in Florida should mean a shot at the most meaningful victory of the year.

The Straightforward Path & Four SEC Teams in the CFP/NY6

No drama, all chalk this week could lead us to something like this:

• College Football Playoff: Ohio State, LSU, Clemson, Oklahoma/Utah
• Sugar: Georgia vs Oklahoma/Baylor
• Rose: Penn State vs Utah/Oregon
• Orange: Florida vs Virginia
• Cotton: Alabama vs Group of Five

(For more on automatic bids and the SEC selection process, see last week’s bowl projections)

Automatic bids leave few questions here. After the four playoff teams, only two at-large selections are available: the highest-ranked SEC/Big Ten team to go opposite an ACC school in Miami, and the highest-ranked remaining team to face the best Group of Five team in JerryWorld. If Penn State is ranked higher than Wisconsin in the final College Football Playoff poll, the Nittany Lions will go to the Rose Bowl and clear the path for both Florida and Alabama to play in the New Year’s Six.

If this happens, Auburn will go to the Citrus Bowl. From there, the SEC’s Group of Six will choose between Tennessee, Texas A&M, Kentucky, and Mississippi State.

Last week, the assumption was the Outback Bowl would take 7-5 Texas A&M with losses to Clemson, Alabama, Auburn, Georgia, and LSU. But the Aggies were non-competitive in a 50-7 loss, and have become popular in projections to stay home and play in the Texas Bowl. Remember: A&M played in the Gator Bowl last year. That performance against LSU makes them even less likely to return there in my opinion.

If, in fact, Tennessee is now more desirable than Texas A&M, the Aggies could go to Houston and clear a path to Tennessee in Tampa. The only way I can see the Vols in the Outback Bowl is if four SEC teams are in the CFP/NY6. Getting four there means the Big Ten gets just two, which we’ll assume to be Ohio State and Penn State. That scenario should then send Wisconsin to the Citrus Bowl, where they haven’t been since 2014. And that would make Minnesota the most likely opponent in the Outback Bowl: the Gophers have never played in Tampa, and simplifies what comes next with Iowa and Michigan available for the Holiday and Gator Bowls. Tennessee vs Minnesota (currently #15 in the AP poll) in the Outback Bowl is now the projection from both ESPN analysts.

What to watch here on Tuesday: how close are Penn State, Wisconsin, and Minnesota in the College Football Playoff poll? Does the committee reward Minnesota’s head-to-head win over Penn State the way the AP poll did not (PSU 12, Minnesota 15)? Is Wisconsin so far up the ladder that a competitive game with Ohio State could keep them in the New Year’s Six mix?

What if only three SEC teams make the CFP/NY6?

Let’s say the playoff committee really takes it out on Alabama and drops the Tide way down the list and out of New Year’s Six contention. If a Big Ten team earns an at-large bid to the Orange or Cotton, the quality of opponent other SEC teams would face will drop, and we’re all going back one in the pecking order without a fourth SEC team in the CFP/NY6.

In this scenario, let’s say Wisconsin plays a close game with Ohio State and stays ahead of Alabama in the final poll. The Badgers go to the Cotton Bowl, knocking the Tide back to the Citrus Bowl. That knocks Auburn to the Outback Bowl, and would in all likelihood send the Vols to Jacksonville. The Big Ten pecking order then goes like this: Minnesota to the Citrus Bowl, then a real conundrum for the Outback Bowl. The last three years Tampa had Iowa, Michigan, and Iowa. The Big Ten has written rules to push for five different teams in their second-tier bowls in six years. But the drop-off from Michigan and Iowa to everyone else is steep. If they just kept it straightforward, you’d have Michigan in the Outback Bowl, Iowa in the Holiday Bowl and Indiana in the Gator Bowl. This is the scenario 247 takes for Tennessee: Vols vs Hoosiers in Jacksonville. Jason Kirk at Banner Society still has the Vols in Charlotte for reasons that are unclear to me, but does make the ACC/Big Ten swap we discussed last week to send Indiana to the Music City Bowl to face Kentucky (win-win). This week Jason sends Florida State instead of Virginia Tech to the Gator Bowl, where he has them playing Western Kentucky. I cannot fathom the SEC sending the Vols to Charlotte but leaving Jacksonville void.

So, to recap:

• If the SEC gets four teams in the CFP/NY6, the Vols would be a favorite for the Outback Bowl in Tampa, with #15 Minnesota the most likely opponent. This scenario likely depends on Texas A&M going to the Texas Bowl.
• If the SEC gets three teams in the CFP/NY6, the Vols would be a favorite for the Gator Bowl in Jacksonville, with Indiana or an ACC #3 substitute like Florida State or Virginia Tech the most likely opponent.
• On Tuesday, keep an eye on Penn State and Alabama in the College Football Playoff poll. I think you want Alabama still in range for the New Year’s Six, and Penn State in position to make the Rose Bowl over Minnesota and Wisconsin after they presumably lose to Ohio State.

More to come after Tuesday night.

Way back in 2009, I sat in the pressbox for Tennessee’s 31-16 win over a 2-10 Vanderbilt team that was largely in question late in the fourth quarter. But senior defensive tackle Wes Brown — his knees by then a painful mess of linguine — picked off an errant pass and rumbled 25 yards for the game-clinching touchdown. He dragged a Commodores offensive player the final 10 yards of his rumble, failing to be denied his moment.

I spoke with Wes’s parents and wrote a story about the play that turned into a story about his love affair with the Vols. Sure, we talked about the play, but that was secondary.

Here’s the thing about Wes: It wasn’t about “his” moment. It was never about him. I’ve struck up sort of an e-friendship with him in the years following the completion of his career, and we’ve spoken from time to time about his love for Tennessee, his passion about the Vols.

We have a lot in common to say the least.

Well, other than the fact he’s a former 4-star defender wanted by virtually every team in the SEC, and I am a short, fat dude who tries to string together words into coherent sentences. We both grew up on the Tennessee-Alabama line, had family who shaped our beliefs in the importance of Vols football, live and die with every play and absolutely despise Alabama. I like to think if I was ever talented enough to put on the orange and white (not even close) my career would have mirrored Wes’s.

He wanted to win more than anybody. Tennessee meant — means — so much to him. Wes impacted plenty of plays throughout a pain-filled career where, many times, he had to get days of treatment to even go out there and play at all, but he still went down in Tennessee lore. It’s impressive the things he accomplished, and he battled through some frustrating years to be a big part of Lane Kiffin’s ’09 rejuvenated UT team.

Is it sad that’s probably the last time I felt about a player the way I feel about this year’s group of seniors? Yes, it is. After all, that was unbelievably a decade ago. And there have been plenty of excellent UT players, heroes and even a legend or two sprinkled in, but this year’s group of seniors are different. They’ve bought into Jeremy Pruitt’s mentality, persevered through perhaps the most disappointing start to a Tennessee team in my lifetime, and they’ve got the potential to truly have a turnaround season.

No, they aren’t ever going to be part of something special in Knoxville, but it’s possible they’ve built the ground floor. (And, no, we’re not going to go into the bricks and foundation talk that were recited by me and others through the first couple of Butch Jones years.) Those senior classes fell apart, transferred, began to realize the carny barker’s slogans were shams. Whether you want to buy into what Pruitt is selling or not, there’s no question he knows football. There are some huge learning curves, and we’re still seeing that with his time-management struggles and some personnel decisions, but Pruitt is a known developer of talent, and that is shining through.

Look no further than the senior class. That’s why we’re here. Some of them have always been contributors who’ve blossomed into stars. For others, the light has only recently come on. But many of these guys are worthy of your attendance and your high-volume cheers on Senior Day tomorrow in Neyland Stadium.

It’s just a matter of which one — or ones — are going to have their Wes Brown moment. Even though the Vols are more than three-touchdown favorites, Vanderbilt has beaten UT three times in a row, and the game can be ugly, rugged and in need of a gamebreaker. It’s a good thing several of the guys playing their final game in Neyland Stadium are capable.

For Jauan Jennings, it will be the last time running through that Neyland Stadium tunnel and through the T to the roar of approving fans who have anointed him among their top all-time players. He’s certainly worthy. There hasn’t been a player will Tennessee to more wins other than perhaps Joshua Dobbs in the past decade. But, more than Dobbs, Jennings connects with fans; he walks the walk and plays with a “dog” mentality. When the pressure turns up, Jennings is right in the thick of it, and he rises to the occasion.

Like Wes Brown, Jauan gets it. Case in point when asked about UT fans and what they mean to him his week, he chirped:

“Everything,” he told Ben McKee. “Without them, it could be the complete opposite. I could not be here right now if the fans did not have my back. That’s why, every down, I give my all. It means more than just me.”

Through the coaching changes, him getting booted off the team for a tirade under interim coach Brady Hoke, the reVOLt, Pruitt’s first two years and more, Jennings has emerged as a player we all love because he plays with the defiance we feel. Again, he is worthy of our admiration and adoration.

Then there’s Daniel Bituli. This is a guy whose family fled the Congo in a life-or-death situation and settled in Nashville, Tennessee. So the ebbs and flows of his Tennessee career paled in comparison to the things that really matter. Still, he has emerged as a special player who has helped UT turn a corner on defense and become one of the stingiest units in the SEC over the last half of the season. Want a signature moment? How about his goal-line stop of Lynn Bowden that gave the Vols a win? He’s the leading tackler, the emotional leader and should play a long time on the next level.

Jennings’ wideout mate Marquez Callaway has always been a deep threat, one of the best in the nation at high-pointing a ball and coming down with 50-50 throws. It’s remarkable the number of times Jarrett Guarantano has asked him to make a play with his pass, and Callaway obliged. Just think of what he could have been without so many quarterback issues throughout his career. If there’s one player I feel like should have another year of eligibility it would be Quez. It just doesn’t seem like he should be a senior, and he’s going to be missed next year. He’s just another player Butch Jones should be ashamed of burning a year of eligibility when he had one catch for 13 yards back in 2016.

Darrell Taylor has come a long way from WGWTFA to now. As a lanky-but-talented 4-star recruit, we all had high hopes for the pass-rusher. He was a smack-talker early in his career (see the acronym), but he never really lived up to his potential until last season. Now, as a senior, he led the league in sacks much of the year but now is fourth, a half sack behind a three-way tie in first place.

That brings us to Nigel Warrior, a player we’ve all probably ripped more than anybody besides Guarantano over his career. The safety made us wait until National Signing Day to see whether he was going to follow in the footsteps of father and Vol legend Dale Carter or go to Georgia, Auburn or Ohio State. Once he chose UT, we had high hopes, but the light simply never came on. A few games into this season, it did, and Warrior has begun to play at a high level. His NFL potential is obvious, and he’s making plays all over the field. It’s just a shame we don’t have another year of it. Things started to materialize late for Warrior, but it’s just in time to help save this season.

Though Dominick Wood-Anderson‘s two years in Knoxville probably haven’t gone the way we all thought they would, the tight end was one of Pruitt’s first big signees, and he has shown flashes of brilliance throughout his couple of seasons. Yes, we’re all going to wonder what might have been with DWA’s career, but he has caught some passes and could have a big career on the next level.

Then there’s Tyler Byrd, and you shouldn’t forget about him. Like the others, he had his hero moment this year when he took a short pass and raced 39 yards for a clinching fourth-quarter touchdown in a 20-10 win over Mississippi State that turned the season. For a player who had so much expected of him but was jerked around from offense to defense back to offense and had issues with his hands and with finding a home, it was satisfying to see him be a part of a big win. He stuck around, and it paid off.

“Just got to keep hard working, and things don’t go your way all the time,” he told GoVols247’s Ryan Callahan. “But you just keep fighting, and hopefully the plays will come your way sometimes.”

That quote personifies the entire Vols senior class. All they’ve done is give us reasons to be excited heading into tomorrow’s game with Vanderbilt, made us hope, and it’ll be up to the classes behind them to show if they’ve spread the table for the feast. The way the past decade of UT football has gone, there’s no telling either way.

But they’ve done their part. They’ve given their all.

Jauan Jennings’ journey into the hearts of Vols fans began as just one of a group of highly-touted recruits in the 2015 class that ranked No. 4 in the nation. We see a handful of guys like this every year. They arrive on campus with great fanfare and promise, but whether their high school success translates to success in college is yet to be determined. Some never pan out, while some prove they belong. A few of them have special moments that make great memories, and a handful do so often enough that they become stars.

And every once in a while, one of them becomes a legend.

Act I

Although he was part of a recruiting class absolutely loaded with blue-chippers, it didn’t take long for Jennings to prove he belonged, even as a freshman on a team full of well-established playmakers:

Those were the days when Jennings was merely a sidekick, getting his feet wet in a supporting role to guys like Josh Dobbs. But he wouldn’t remain in a supporting role for long.

As a sophomore in 2016, Jennings played a starring role in a pair of plays against bitter rivals on consecutive weeks, iconic moments that immediately etched themselves forever into the minds of Vols fans: a losing-streak-busting, turning-point touchdown against Florida in the fourth game of the season, and a Hollywood-ending Hail Mary against Georgia in the fifth.

Florida, 2016: The Move

By Jennings’ sophomore season in 2016, Florida owned an 11-year winning streak over the Vols, and in an orange-and-white-checkered Neyland Stadium, the streak looked certain to extend to 12 as the Gators led 21-3 at halftime. But in the third quarter, Dobbs made it a game with two touchdown throws, one to running back Jalen Hurd and another to tight end Ethan Wolf, cutting the lead to 21-17.

But they were still behind and hadn’t yet gotten over the hump against the Gators. That is, until Jennings willed them past the tipping point: (video should start automatically at 3:02; stop it at 3:30)

That wasn’t just a go-ahead touchdown, it was brilliance with a backstory, as Jennings was so wide open because he put a move on mouthy defensive back Teez Tabor that got Tabor turned around and put him on the ground. Jennings bobbled the ball while tight-roping the sideline but hauled it in, stayed in bounds, and raced 67 yards to a Vols touchdown and a lead over Florida they wouldn’t relinquish.

That may have cemented all by itself Jennings’ reputation in Knoxville as one of Tennessee’s stars, but he would outdo himself the following week against the Georgia Bulldogs.

Georgia, 2016: The Catch

Sometimes a surprise twist ending can entirely overwhelm a really good drama, and that’s exactly what happened against Georgia the following week. The game started with the Bulldogs getting out to a 17-0 lead. Josh Dobbs managed a late first-half touchdown to make it 17-7, but the Bulldogs were in control. The teams traded scores in the third quarter, and then Tennessee scored another TD early in the fourth quarter to make it 24-21, Bulldogs.

And that’s when the drama started coming in waves, and when Jauan Jennings had the last word.

With Georgia pinned back deep due to an excellent punt, Tennessee’s Derek Barnett sacked quarterback Jacob Eason, causing him to fumble in his own end zone, and Corey Vereen fell on it. Suddenly, the Vols were up 28-24 with less than three minutes to go. Tennessee appeared to seal it with an interception on Georgia’s next drive, but then had to punt, giving the ball back to Georgia with a minute left. They moved the ball on three consecutive plays but were still 47 yards away from a needed touchdown and only had 10 seconds left to do it.

They did it.

And then they celebrated like they’d won the game and got a 15-yard penalty for doing so. After Evan Berry returned the kickoff 20 yards, the Vols had the ball back on the 43-yard line with 4 seconds to go.

Enter Jennings:

If you don’t yet have a full appreciation for that sequence of events, try this:

I’m a soft-spoken, generally reserved guy, but when that happened, I, too, ran out onto my front porch and yelled like the house was on fire. My neighbor across the street was doing the same thing. Thank you, Jauan.

Act II

That’s only Act I in the Jauan Jennings Story, though. In 2017, Jennings dislocated his wrist in the first game of the year against Georgia Tech, and the injury derailed his entire season. Jennings caught a lot of criticism for the way he handled the injury, as he reportedly made himself scarce, at practice and at games. He says now that he just wanted to play so badly that he couldn’t stand to be relegated to the sideline. If you’re skeptical of that, you’re not alone. From a distance, it seemed like hogwash, but I’ve seen enough videos of this guy after the fact, talking about it with tears in his eyes, to believe it now. The guy has a passion for football and his teammates that some of us just can’t fathom.

Apparently, the motivating force through his rehab that season was an intense desire to get back onto the field. He says he was told by the coaching staff that he could play in the final game against Vanderbilt if he got himself ready by then, so that was the goal he worked toward. It was plenty of motivation, because Jennings — a Murfreesboro native — has a special disdain for Vanderbilt.

Meanwhile, though, the 2017 team was going down the toilet. They started 3-1, but four consecutive losses, a meaningless win over Southern Miss, and another loss led to head coach Butch Jones getting fired. The team then lost to LSU under interim head coach Brady Hoke, and all they had left was one last game against Vanderbilt.

Jennings wanted to play against his favorite foe. He expected to play because he was told that he could. But the interim staff said he could not. Jennings lost his mind, and he did it on Instagram.

I normally wouldn’t even link to that video for a variety of reasons, but I do it here because it’s important for the contrast I’m about to draw. If you decide to watch it, you have to promise me that you’ll also watch all of the rest of the videos below.

That ill-advised public act of insubordination that brought additional negative publicity to the institution unsurprisingly resulted in Jennings’ dismissal from the football program. The dismissal itself wasn’t really a surprise, but the circumstances were certainly odd. The decision to dismiss Jennings was made by an interim coach and supported by an athletic director who himself would be fired shortly thereafter for other reasons.

After he’d cooled down and realized the consequences of what he’d done, Jennings apologized:

Yeah, he’s reading a statement. And yeah, it may have been written by someone else. But those tears signal one of two things: Either he meant what he said, or he wanted so desperately to play for Tennessee again that he would take it all back even though it was true. Either one of those interpretations is that Jennings was giving his all for Tennessee.

Shortly after that, Tennessee’s administration hired Phillip Fulmer as athletic director, and Fulmer hired Jeremy Pruitt as head coach, after a widely-reported and extremely embarrassing coaching search by the prior administration.

Act III

Pruitt had multiple issues to address when he arrived on campus, and one of them was to figure out what to do about Jauan. After asking around and getting green lights from people he trusted, he decided to let Jennings back on the team on the condition that Jennings had to do everything right and, more specifically, had to avoid doing anything that would embarrass the coach or the school.

Pruitt essentially put Jennings on a short leash. Here’s Jennings getting used to it back in 2018:

When you put a short leash on a fiery guy like Jennings, it generally goes one of two ways. Often, the guy builds up a gradual resentment toward the constant tug of the leash and, when adversity comes, he throws it off and blows his second chance. The other most common way it plays out is that the guy is essentially neutered into submission, and although he achieves compliance, he also loses the spirit that drives him to excel.

Jennings, though, Kobayashi-Marued that thing. He didn’t have to tame and domesticate his monster in order to control it. He just alpha-rolled it, wrestling it into submission to his better will. After all, it’s what Jauan Jennings does; he fights, and he wins.

This new Jennings continued to be tested, battered, and perfected by relentless adversity throughout the 2018 season and into 2019. Last year ended with a 5-7 record and an embarrassing loss to Vanderbilt, of all teams. And then the 2019 season kicked off with humiliation heaped on humiliation when the team lost as a heavy favorite to Georgia State despite heightened expectations heading into the season.

But all of this merely set the stage for the next iteration of Jauan Jennings. Now that he had control of his monster, he was going to use it (video starts at 3:39; stop it at 4:20):

The fire didn’t catch and spread right away, but by the fifth game of the season, any fan could tell that this team was different and that it was different largely because it started looking more like Jauan across the board. The players would not let any one thing put them on the ground, and when you did bring friends, they would fall forward and be the first ones up.

In other words, they would not be denied (video starts at 0:58, watch all the way through):

This one starts at 1:34; stop it at 2:12:

This one starts at 5:50; stop it at 6:10:

Legendary Tennessee linebacker Al Wilson was the engine that drove the Vols’ 1998 team to the national championship. It will be some time before the jury returns with a verdict on the question of whether the Tennessee program has finally reclaimed its rightful place in the SEC hierarchy, but if it happens soon, I have no doubt that we’ll look back on this particular time and say that it was Jauan Jennings who finally willed this giant truck out of the ditch.

I, for one, couldn’t be happier. Because as much as I’ve enjoyed watching Jauan play, I am thrilled at how he’s done it. It’s one thing to alpha-roll your opponents, but the elite learn to alpha-roll the enemy within, and few have done it as effectively as Jauan Jennings.

Jennings has one game left to play as a Tennessee Volunteer in Neyland Stadium. It’s fitting that it’s against Vanderbilt.

Go Jauan. Go Vols.

Happy Thanksgiving. We’re grateful for all y’all.

Tennessee opened as a 20-point favorite over the Commodores this week and started inching up from there. This Thanksgiving morning, it’s at -21.5. So . . . will the Vols cover against Vanderbilt Saturday night? Here’s what the GRT Statsy Preview Machine has to say and whether I think it’s right this week.

Vols-Commodores

From the perspective of Tennessee

Tennessee’s points:

• Tennessee scoring offense for the season: 23.9
• Vanderbilt scoring defense for the season: 32.1

The Vanderbilt scoring defense is most similar to the following prior Tennessee opponent(s) (FBS only):

• Mississippi State 28.8
• Georgia State 35.9

Tennessee scored 30 points against Georgia State and 20 against Mississippi State. That’s 77% of what those teams usually give up, so the SPM estimates 24.7 points for the Vols against Vandy.

Vanderbilt’s points:

• Tennessee scoring defense for the season: 22.7
• Vanderbilt scoring offense for the season: 17.1

The Vanderbilt scoring offense is most similar to the following prior Tennessee opponent(s):

• South Carolina 24.2
• Kentucky 24.6

Tennessee allowed only 13 points to Kentucky and 21 points to South Carolina, 70% of what those teams usually score. The SPM estimates 12 points for Vandy against the Vols.

Estimated score: Tennessee 24.7, Vanderbilt 12

From the perspective of Vanderbilt

Vanderbilt’s points:

• Vanderbilt scoring offense for the season: 17.1
• Tennessee scoring defense for the season: 22.7

The Tennessee scoring defense is most similar to the following prior Vanderbilt opponent(s) (FBS only):

• LSU 23.5
• South Carolina 25

Against LSU, Vanderbilt scored 38 points against LSU but only 7 against South Carolina. Together, that’s 93% of what those teams usually allow. Estimated points for Vanderbilt against Tennessee: 21.1

Tennessee’s points:

• Vanderbilt scoring defense for the season: 32.1
• Tennessee scoring offense for the season: 23.9

The Tennessee scoring offense is most similar to the following prior Vanderbilt opponent(s):

• South Carolina 24.2
• Purdue 24.5

Purdue got 42 points against Vanderbilt, while South Carolina got its average of 24. Taken together, that’s 136% of what those guys usually get. The SPM estimates 32.5 points for the Vols against the ‘Dores.

Estimated score: Vanderbilt 21.1, Tennessee 32.5

Tennessee 28.6, Vanderbilt 16.5
Tennessee -12.1

SPM Final Estimates

Throw it in, cook it up, take a peek:

SPM Final estimated score: Tennessee 28.6, Vanderbilt 16.5

SPM Final estimated spread: Tennessee -12.1

Difference between the SPM and the Vegas opening spread: 7.9

This is not one of the SPM’s favorites this week, but it’s not far off, either.

Eyeball adjustments

I’m having trouble swallowing the estimate from Tennessee’s perspective of only 25 points for the Vols, based on the fact that Missouri’s defense is really good, Vanderbilt’s is not nearly as good, and Tennessee just put 24 on Missouri. The Vols got 120% of what the Tigers usually give up last week, and if they do that against Vandy, that would make it more like 39. I trust Tennessee’s points from Missouri’s perspective better (32.5), so let’s call it 33.

On Vandy’s points, there’s too big of a difference between what they got against LSU and what they got against South Carolina for me to totally trust the numbers from the ‘Dores’ perspective. It looks about right from the Vols’ perspective, although 12 feels maybe just a bit high to me based on just how terrible Vandy’s offense appears to be. For that reason, I’m going to knock it down to 10.

So, my eyeball-adjusted prediction is Tennessee 33, Vanderbilt 10. The SPM doesn’t like the Vols to cover in this one, but I do.

Other predictions from other systems

As I said before, the Vols opened as 20-point favorites and it’s currently -21.5. With an over/under of 45.5, that translates to something like Tennessee 33, Vanderbilt 12.

Bill Connelly’s SP+ likes Tennessee 35-16 (Vols -19), and gives the Vols an 87% chance of winning.

ESPN’s FPI gives the Vols a 91.2% chance of winning. For the record, FPI has been too low on the Vols the last two weeks.

Bottom line

The SPM doesn’t like the Vols to cover this week as either the opening 20-point favorite or today’s 21.5-point favorite. It’s not in the sweet spot for the machine, though, and after an eyeball adjustment, I like them to cover.

• Vegas: Tennessee, -21.5 (~Tennessee 33, Vanderbilt 12)
• SP+: Tennessee 35, Vanderbilt 16 (doesn’t cover)
• SPM: Tennessee 29, Vanderbilt 17 (doesn’t cover)
• Me: Tennessee 33, Vanderbilt 10 (covers)

What do y’all think?

After a stretch of five-of-six weeks well over 50%, the SPM has now been under .500 two weeks in a row and is trying to get its groove back. Last week, it went 25-29 (46.30%) overall, 9-10 (47.37%) over the confidence threshold, and 7-6 (53.85%) on its favorites.

For the season, the SPM is now 326-313 (51.02%) overall, 136-106 (56.20%) over the confidence threshold, and 80-48 (62.50%) for the favorites.

Meanwhile, SP+ crushed it again last week, going 32-22-4 (59%) overall. It’s sitting pretty at 55% for the season.

SPM favorite picks this week

Here are the SPM’s favorite picks for this week:

What do y’all think?

The Tennessee Volunteers conclude the regular season this Saturday at 4:00 on the SEC Network, but it’s Rivalry Week, and there are great games all week long, especially on Saturday. Here’s when and where to find the games that matter most to Vols fans, along with some suggestions on how and why to watch them.

The list curated just for Vols fans is up first, but there’s a full schedule following that so you can curate your own if you like.

Tuesday, November 26, 2019

Here we go again with teams in Ohio playing football on non-Saturdays. I think they’re confused.

Thursday, November 28, 2019

Rivalry Week cracks open Thanksgiving night with Mississippi-Mississippi State. Alexa, why do they call it the Egg Bowl?

Friday, November 29, 2019

There are a lot of games on TV this Black Friday, but most of them aren’t of much interest to Vols fans. So, if you don’t like those choices, just look for the oblong ball on your TV (or consult the entire schedule below) and find whatever floats your boat.

But notice that line of Orange, which is the Vols hoops team playing Florida State at 7:00 on CBS Sports Network. So be sure to catch that. It’s good to chase a little football with a little basketball.

Gameday, November 30, 2019

Wait, we’re on at the same time as the Iron Bowl? Bummer, as I would have liked to have seen that one live. But we’ll be busy trying to pack three years’ worth on revenge on the Commodores into 60 minutes at 4:00 on the SEC Network.

Depending on what happens with Vols hoops Friday night against Florida State, they’ll play again on Saturday either at 4:00 or at 7:00 and against either Purdue or VCU. If it’s on at 4:00, DVR it and watch it later. Hey, I love hoops, but if it comes down to game number 12 of 12 or game number six of 32, I’m going with 12 of 12. If it’s on at 7:00, then DVR that and catch up with it after the Vols-Vandy football game.

Warm up with Ohio State and Michigan at noon on Fox, although I feel the need to voice the opinion here that you can’t give it a name as presumptuous as The Game if it’s on at noon and on Fox. And what is up with Ohio State’s unnatural affection for the word “The” anyway?

There are also a couple of great options in the evening, so have at it.

Enjoy!

Full searchable college football TV schedule

And hey, it’s Rivalry Week, so there’s chaos all around. Here’s where and when to find it your particular flavor: