The teams with the most overall returning production are Georgia Tech, Oklahoma State, and USC. Also notable toward the top of the list are Virginia Tech, Purdue, Florida State, Texas, and North Carolina.
At the bottom of the list? Utah, which is why I’m not high on Utah despite the arrival of Jake Bentley. In all, seven Utes from last year’s team were drafted. On offense, the draft losses were limited to running back Zack Moss, although his contribution last season — 1,416 yards and 15 touchdowns — constitutes a huge hole all by itself. The bigger catastrophe is on the defensive side of the ball, where three defensive linemen and three defensive backs were all drafted and another defensive back left early but didn’t get picked. Kyle Whittingham knows what he’s doing, but that right there is a chore.
Other notables toward the bottom of the list are Miami, Baylor, LSU, Mississippi State, and Michigan.
Offensive returning production
Notable teams that return a lot on offense include Nebraska, Oklahoma State, Ole Miss, and USC. Teams with challenges on that side of the ball include LSU, Georgia, and Utah. More on Georgia’s offensive challenges in a minute.
Defensive returning production
Teams in particularly good shape on defense include Oklahoma State, Virginia Tech, USC, Florida State, and Purdue. On the flip side, Baylor, Utah, Miami, Mississippi State, and Alabama all have major holes to fill. With the way they recruit, the Tide are going to be fine, of course, but plugging those holes is on the to-do list.
What about the SEC?
Here’s how things shape up in the SEC:
Team
Offense
O-Rank
Defense
D-Rank
Total
T-Rank
64%
5
46%
13
53%
12
63%
6
62%
8
62%
6
63%
7
55%
11
58%
10
57%
8
61%
9
59%
9
38%
12
77%
2
62%
7
65%
4
76%
3
71%
2
32%
13
53%
12
45%
14
84%
1
60%
10
70%
3
51%
10
46%
14
48%
13
49%
11
63%
7
58%
11
53%
9
68%
6
62%
8
70%
3
69%
5
69%
4
77%
2
69%
4
72%
1
31%
14
87%
1
65%
5
Overall
Overall, A&M leads the league in returning production, followed closely by Kentucky, Ole Miss, and Tennessee. This is just one of the many reasons we and so many others reaaaaally like the Aggies as a dark-horse pick for the West. It’s also why we Vols fans are still looking over our shoulders at Kentucky even though Tennessee is improving.
LSU brings up the rear with only 45%. The Tigers are basically starting over, and it’s not just because they lost Joe Burrow. Also gone are Clyde Edwards-Helaire, most of the offensive line, most of the linebackers, and Thorpe Award-winner Grant Delpit. And we haven’t even talked about the coordinators yet.
Gameday on Rocky Top 2020 College Football Preview Magazine
When you sort that thing by offense, Ole Miss takes the top spot by a long shot, followed by A&M and Tennessee. Lane Kiffin and the Rebels could make trouble for some folks in the West this fall.
Vanderbilt earns the distinction of returning the least amount of offensive production in the SEC, largely due to having every single one of last year’s quarterbacks either graduate or jump ship. LSU has offensive roster attrition you knew was coming.
Georgia has issues as well, most notably the early departures of quarterback Jake Fromm and running back D’Andre Swift and the loss of four starters along the offensive line to the NFL and the transfer portal. The offensive returning production for the Bulldogs is just one of the factors that I believe is going to lead to Florida overtaking them this year.
Defense
Vanderbilt wins today’s Out-Of-Balance award, as the Commodores return the most amount of defensive production to offset returning the least amount on offense. Go ‘Dores.
Right behind Vanderbilt is Georgia, a frightening prospect for a defense that finished first in the nation in both rushing and scoring defense last fall. Whatever challenges they might face on offense, the defense may be able to erase. Kentucky’s right there with the Bulldogs, returning nearly as much from a defense that finished in the Top 25 last season.
Teams with more work to do than most on that side of the ball are Mississippi State, Alabama, LSU, and Auburn. Most of those are recruiting well enough to weather the storm.
Your turn
Does anything in either of those lists jump out at you as being particularly important? Does anything in either of them not matter at all for other reasons? Tell us what you think.
In analyzing teams for our annual Gameday magazine, we take a variety of factors into account. One of the core data points is a team’s “returning production,” the idea being that experience matters. Generally speaking, any given player should be better this year than last and should be much better as a senior than he was as a freshman.
Given that, returning more production should be better for a team than returning less, at least to some degree. If all of your guys are back, your team should be bigger, better, stronger, and more experienced. Having everybody back from last year’s team by itself isn’t probative of how good a team is going to be, but it should have some bearing on how much better or worse they should be, assuming all of the other variables remained constant.
Of course, those other variables are always shifting around from year-to-year, too, and depending on how they change, they can affect projections for a team more or less than returning production. Those other factors include (1) how well the team has recruited to replace outgoing players, (2) head coaching and coordinator continuity, and (3) the team’s baseline, meaning how good the team actually was last year in competition on the field.
Returning production, then, isn’t intended to be the end of the analysis. It’s merely one factor among many, and it can itself be influenced positively or negatively by the other factors, most notably recruiting. Those other factors can’t, however, eliminate the importance of returning production altogether. For instance, a team that recruits especially well can do a better job of replacing outgoing talent than one that doesn’t, but recruiting can’t really replace experience very well at all. Experience must be earned on the field in live fire. A roster full of 5-star freshmen could overwhelm a roster full of 2-star sixth-year seniors, of course, but all else being equal, teams that are both talented and experienced should beat teams that are one but not the other.
It’s returning “production,” not returning “starts”
Also, returning production isn’t just about how many players or starters return for a team. It’s about the “production” returning to this year’s team. Our returning production analysis cares less about how many players or starters are back and more about what percentage of last year’s rushing yards, receiving yards, passing yards, tackles, sacks, tackles for loss, and pass breakups are back on the field this fall. Games played and games started are sometimes factored in, but only as a proxy for production when production is difficult to measure. For instance, offensive linemen (and to a somewhat lesser degree, defensive linemen) generally don’t have stat sheets. Whether they’re valuable to their own team is best measured by how often their coaches put them on the field.
So, when we analyze teams with an eye to the upcoming season, returning production is always one of the things we look at first. All else being equal, should we expect this team to be better or worse than it was last year? Once we have that, we then turn to the other factors to determine how much or how little it might matter.
This year’s magazine (which you can pre-order now for a mid-June delivery) includes our ranking of all of the FBS teams by offensive, defensive, and overall returning production with a spotlight on the SEC teams. We’re going to post both of those temporarily here tomorrow so that we can discuss some of the more interesting results.
The 2018 National Champions nearly did it again last year but ran into a Bayou Buzzsaw wielded by Heisman Trophy-winner Joe Burrow in the 2019 championship game. Balance was the theme of the season for the Tigers with the offense putting up 529 yards per game and the defense holding opponents to only 288. The offense ranked No. 5 in the nation, and the defense ranked No. 6.
The Tigers this year aren’t so much re-loading as they are just pulling the trigger again. Three players – receiver Tee Higgins, linebacker Isaiah Simmons, and cornerback A.J. Terrell – left early for the NFL, and the offense loses four seniors along the offensive line, but most of the key components from last year’s near-national champions are back. Trevor Lawrence, Travis Etienne, and Justyn Ross will star in the offense, and most of the defensive line returns as well.
The biggest concern on the schedule is a Nov. 7 date with Notre Dame in South Bend. Expect the Tigers to roll through the ACC again this season right into the playoff.
2. Ohio State
The Buckeyes navigated the transition from Urban Meyer to Ryan Day just fine, thank you very much, following up a 13-1 season in 2018 with another one in 2019. They beat five ranked teams on their way to the College Football Playoff semifinal, where they lost a close one to Clemson. Like Clemson, Ohio State did it with balance: the nation’s No. 1 defense and No. 4 offense.
Chase Young and Jeff Okudah were both selected in the Top 3 picks of the NFL Draft, and J.K. Dobbins was picked No. 23, but there’s plenty of talent left behind. Justin Fields returns for another run at the Heisman with Master Teague III and Chris Olave in supporting roles. And the defense has talented guys ready to fill the voids left by Young and Okudah.
An early test in Eugene against the Oregon Ducks will set the tone, and they’ll have to contend with the regular minefield that is the Big 10 schedule, but the Buckeyes are positioned for the playoff again this year.
3. Alabama
Alabama missed the playoff for the first time last fall but finished the season 11-2, the two losses coming to then-No. 2 LSU in the regular season by five points and then-No. 15 Auburn by three points.
As usual, the NFL has raided Alabama’s roster. Nine players from last year’s team were drafted, four of them in the first round. But running back Najee Harris returns, and the receiving corps gets DeVonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle back. Quarterback Mac Jones got a great deal of experience filling in for the injured Tua Tagovailoa last season, so he could take over again this fall, but he’ll also be challenged by elite prospect Bryce Young (GSEC6).
Alabama’s season kicks off with a game against Southern Cal, and the schedule also includes an early trip to Athens to take on a revenge-minded Georgia. They’ll also need to hold off SEC West opponents LSU, Auburn, and Texas A&M. That’s a ton of tough games, but don’t expect more than one of them to go sideways for the Tide.
4. Oklahoma
Oklahoma’s defense improved from No. 114 in the nation in 2018 to No. 38 last year under new defensive coordinator Alex Grinch. Meanwhile, Lincoln Riley’s offense just kept rolling on its way to a No. 3 national ranking, piling up 538 yards per game.
A perennial playoff participant, Oklahoma has a few additional holes to patch this fall. The offense was hardest hit with the graduation of Heisman Finalist Jalen Hurts and the early departure of receiver CeeDee Lamb to the NFL. Charleston Rambo will be ready to lead the receiving corps in the absence of Lamb, but Riley will likely have to entrust the offense to former 5-star prospect Spencer Rattler.
The defense will miss Kenneth Murray, Neville Gallimore, and Parnell Motley, but they’re in good shape and hoping to improve even more this fall under Grinch.
Assuming Riley does his thing with yet another new quarterback, expect the Sooners to contend for the national championship again this fall.
5. Florida
Florida has dramatically improved since Dan Mullen took over in 2018. After a 4-7 season in 2017, Mullen’s first team was 10-3, and they finished last season with an 11-2 record and a No. 6 national ranking. They’ve not been able to get past Georgia so far, though.
This could be the year.
Kyle Trask returns to the field for Florida this fall, and although the Gators’ offense loses receivers Van Jefferson, Freddie Swain, and Tyrie Cleveland, it returns pass-catching tight end Kyle Pitts and receiver Trevon Grimes. The defense will miss CJ Henderson, David Reese II, and Jonathan Greenard, but most other key pieces are back, including three different defensive backs with three interceptions each.
The Gators will need to improve the run game to increase their chances of jumping ahead of Georgia in the SEC East. But they were only one score apart last season, and this year they appear to be neck-and-neck. Expect the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party to decide the East this fall.
6. Georgia
Georgia’s defense was exceptional last season, but struggles on offense – and a historically good LSU team – deprived the Bulldogs of an invitation to the playoff.
This offseason, new offensive coordinator Todd Monken will have to deal with the departures of quarterback Jake Fromm, running back D’Andre Swift, and all but one starter along the offensive line. The team also has to find a replacement for Lou Groza Award-winning kicker Rodrigo Blankenship. But most of last year’s exceptional defense returns to the field this fall, including Monty Rice, Azeez Ojulari, and Richard LeCounte.
Things could prove more difficult for the Bulldogs this year with Florida nipping at their heels, Tennessee closing the gap, and Alabama rotating onto the cross-divisional schedule for a mid-September game. Depending on how those three contests go, the Bulldogs could roll right back to Atlanta for the fourth year in a row or they could end up finishing third in the SEC East.
7. Oregon
The Ducks had high hopes for the 2019 season, primarily because quarterback phenom Justin Herbert was returning along with one of the nation’s best offensive lines. Things didn’t go quite as planned. The team still finished 12-2 and ranked No. 5 in the nation, but the defense led the way.
Oregon returns a huge portion of that defense this fall, including literally everybody in the secondary, plus a couple of key linemen and linebacker Isaac Slade-Matautia, whose stat sheet looks like it’s just had Thanksgiving dinner.
The offense does need to replace Herbert and almost all of the offensive line, but the cupboard isn’t bare. CJ Verdell and Johnny Johnson III both return, as does All-American lineman Penei Sewell. And Joe Moorhead, former Mississippi State head coach and Penn State coordinator, takes the reins of the offense this fall for the Ducks.
Oregon trades last year’s game against Auburn for one against Ohio State this season. Regardless of how that one goes, the Ducks are in good shape for the Pac-12 title.
8. Penn State
It wasn’t just Ohio State that dashed the dreams of Penn State last year, it was a surprising blow from then-No. 17 Minnesota under P.J. Fleck. So when Penn State lost offensive coordinator Ricky Rahne to Old Dominion, James Franklin went out and hired Gophers’ coordinator Kirk Ciarrocca, who’d been helping Fleck row the boat since 2017.
The Nittany Lions will have to contend with some early departures, including those of do-everything KJ Hamler and Yetur Gross-Matos, but they return a healthy amount of production from last year’s team, especially on offense. Quarterback Sean Clifford will miss Hamler, but can still count on the running back stable of Journey Brown, Noah Cain, and Devyn Ford running behind an offensive line that returns 80% of its starts.
The Buckeyes are still in the way, but stealing a coordinator from an up-and-coming rival and having most of a good roster back should have the Nittany Lions positioned to make another run at them this fall.
9. Wisconsin
300
Three of the Badgers’ four losses last season came to Oregon in the Rose Bowl and Ohio State twice on its way to the playoff. The team was limited by a woeful passing attack that couldn’t be saved by either an excellent defense or Jonathan Taylor running for over 2,000 yards for the second year in a row.
And now, Taylor is gone, as is Quintez Cephus and nearly half of last year’s receiving yards with him. Quarterback Jack Coan is going to have his hands full piloting an offense with such huge holes to fill.
Fortunately, the defense returns largely intact despite the losses of linebackers Zack Baun and Chris Orr. That’s because nearly all of the other key pieces are back, including everyone in the secondary and everybody on the line except for one reserve.
Unless one of Wisconsin’s running backs is ready to run for 2,000 yards this fall, the most reasonable expectation for the Badgers is a season pretty similar to last year’s.
10. Texas A&M
Jimbo Fisher’s second A&M team went 8-5, but those five losses were to LSU, Clemson, Alabama, Georgia, and Auburn.
The Aggies return much of their offense this fall, led by Kellen Mond, who threw for 2,897 yards and ran for another 500, and Isaiah Spiller, who added another 946 yards on the ground. The offense loses receivers Quartney Davis and Kendrick Rogers, but a solid pass-catching corps remains, led by Jhamon Ausbon. Plus, the offensive line returns 80% of its starts from last fall.
The defense loses a more significant amount of production from last year, the biggest losses being Justin Madubuike and Debione Renfro, but has plenty of talent remaining.
Most importantly, the Aggies trade last year’s game against Georgia for one against Vanderbilt and last season’s non-conference game against Clemson for one against Colorado. They still have Alabama, LSU, and Auburn to contend with, but the road’s a lot easier this year.
11. Notre Dame
Notre Dame only lost twice in 2019, once to then-No. 3 Georgia and once to then-No. 19 Michigan. They did that with a Top 20 defense and an offense that somehow ranked in the Top 15 in points scored despite barely ranking inside the Top 50 in rushing, passing, and overall yards per game.
The offense returns quarterback Ian Book, but loses over 2,000 receiving yards with the departures of Chase Claypool, Chris Finke, and Cole Kmet.
On defense, Notre Dame must replace two draft picks in Julian Okwara and Khalid Kareem, plus Jamir Jones. The secondary will be without safety Alohi Gilman and cornerback Troy Pride Jr., but they’ve been recruiting well enough to have guys ready to step in to fill those spots.
The Fighting Irish host Clemson this fall and play Wisconsin at Lambeau Field in addition to appointments with Stanford and USC. Whether they can get past all of that and make it back to the playoff will depend largely on whether they can increase the offensive firepower.
12. Auburn
Auburn’s 9-4 record last year included losses to four ranked teams in Florida, Georgia, LSU, and Minnesota, and a win over Alabama.
New offensive coordinator Chad Morris will command an offense that returns Bo Nix and his top three targets from last season, led by receiver Seth Williams. The bad news is that they lose running back JaTarvious Whitlow and return only five out of 66 total starts along the offensive line.
There are a couple of huge holes on defense as well. Up front, they’ll miss All-American Derrick Brown and fellow lineman Marlon Davidson, and the secondary loses four players who started at least 12 games, including first-round draft pick Noah Igbinoghene.
The addition of Morris to the offense should help, but it’s tough in the ever-competitive SEC West, not to mention having Georgia as your permanent SEC East rival. If they make the most of their key games, the Tigers could finish well, but a new-look offensive line could make it difficult.
13. Texas
Tom Herman heads into 2020 with two new coordinators. On offense, it’s Mike Yurcich, most recently passing game coordinator at Ohio State, but prior to that coordinator at Oklahoma State from 2013-18. The new guy on defense is Chris Ash, who was head coach at Rutgers from 2016-19.
Texas ranks as one of the top teams in the nation in returning production, both on offense and on defense. Most importantly, Sam Ehlinger and running back Keaontay Ingram return for the offense. The receiving corps loses nearly 2,000 receiving yards with the departure of Devin Duvernay and Collin Johnson, but receiver Brennan Eagles returns to lead a still-solid unit. Joseph Ossai is back to lead the defense.
So much returning production, plus the fact that Texas is still recruiting like a national champion, could mitigate the learning curve associated with two new coordinators. They’ll need everything clicking to get past Oklahoma in the Big 12.
14. LSU
Last season was a magical one for Ed Orgeron, Joe Burrow, and the LSU Tigers. The team strung together a perfect 15-0 season capped by a decisive victory in a national championship game 90 minutes from campus.
But that was last year.
This year, only four college football teams rank lower in offensive returning production, and the Tigers’ defensive returning production isn’t much better. It’s not just Burrow, either. It’s Clyde Edwards-Helaire. It’s most of the offensive line and most of the linebackers. It’s Thorpe Award-winner Grant Delpit, and it’s both coordinators.
There is plenty of talent left on the roster to mitigate such catastrophic losses to some degree, however. Ja’Marr Chase returns to lead a still-star-studded receiving corps, and All-American defensive back Derek Stingley Jr. returns to lead a solid secondary.
But the Tigers will have a very difficult time duplicating what they did last year.
15. Oklahoma State
The Cowboys finished only 8-5 last season, but they return more overall production than anyone else except Georgia Tech.
Quarterback Spencer Sanders returns, as do five of his top six pass-catchers from last season, including Tylan Wallace. Most importantly, running back Chuba Hubbard returns as well. Hubbard ran for an eye-popping 2,094 yards and 21 touchdowns last fall.
As good as things are on the offensive side of the ball, things are even better on defense. They return nearly 90% of their starts in the secondary, all but one reserve player on the line, and the key pieces from last year’s linebacking unit, including Amen Ogbongbemiga, who had 100 tackles last season.
The Cowboys have road games at Oklahoma and Baylor ahead of them this fall, but they get Texas and Iowa State at home. With so much returning production, they could make things interesting in the Big 12 this fall.
16. Tennessee
Tennessee went from receiving death threats in October to receiving votes in the final AP Poll in January, turning a catastrophic 1-4 start into a 7-1 finish for an 8-5 season.
This fall, they’ll have the same head coach, offensive coordinator, and defensive coordinator in consecutive years for the first time since 2014, plus an enviable amount of roster continuity to boot. On offense, the returning players include all of the quarterbacks, all of the running backs, and all of the starting offensive linemen, plus Georgia transfer Cade Mays, if he’s eligible. They do lose three pass-catchers from last fall, but Josh Palmer’s back to lead a still-talented unit. On defense, they return everybody on the line, all but one in the secondary, and all but two at linebacker.
With late-season momentum and coaching and roster continuity they haven’t had in a long time, look for Tennessee to not only maintain its lead over the second tier of the SEC East but also to make things much more interesting against Georgia and Florida this fall.
17. North Carolina
In his first year at Chapel Hill, Mack Brown led a Tar Heels team that had been 5-18 the two prior years to a 7-6 record that included a one-point loss to Clemson. The offense ended up No. 12 in the nation in total yards.
Almost all of that offense returns for Brown’s second act. His leading characters include quarterback Sam Howell, the team’s two leading rushers in Michael Carter and Javonte Williams, and seven of the team’s best pass-catchers. And the offensive line returns 50 of 65 starts.
The news is not quite as good on the defensive side of the ball. They lose two starting linemen, including fifth-round draft pick Jason Strowbridge, but they return most of the secondary and a solid linebacking corps led by Chazz Surratt and Jeremiah Gemmel.
Regardless of how an early test against a good Auburn team in the second game of the season turns out, expect further improvement from the Tar Heels this fall.
18. Southern California
Coming off an 8-5 season, USC returns the third-most overall production in the nation. On offense, all of the Trojans’ passing yards are back, as are 99% of their rushing yards, most of their receiving yards, and a majority of their offensive line starts. They also return huge percentages of last year’s productivity on defense.
Quarterback Kedon Slovis returns to command the offense after throwing for 3,502 yards and 30 touchdowns last fall. He’ll miss Michael Pittman, an early second-round draft pick who piled up 1,275 receiving yards last fall, but a still-solid group remains, led by Amon-Ra St. Brown and Tyler Vaughns. And the entire herd of running backs returns looking to get on track behind an offensive line returning three starters. On defense, everybody’s back but lineman Christian Rector and ‘backer John Houston Jr.
With so much of last year’s roster returning, just getting the defense and running game going will go a long way toward getting the Trojans in the mix for the Pac-12 title.
19. Utah
Last year, the Utes won their second consecutive Pac-12 South title on the strength of the nation’s No. 2 overall defense. They were so good on that side of the ball that the NFL came and stole it all.
In all, six defensive players were drafted and another left early but wasn’t picked. The losses include Bradlee Anae, Leki Fotu, John Penisini, Jaylon Johnson, Terrell Burgess, Julian Blackmon, and Javelin K. Guidry. That pretty much leaves Mika Tafua and Davin Lloyd to lead an entirely new unit.
The offense didn’t escape the raid, either, as running back Zack Moss was drafted as well. And what the NFL didn’t get, graduation did, as quarterback Tyler Huntley is out of eligibility. He’ll be replaced by either Cameron Rising, who transferred from Texas in 2018, or Jake Bentley, a graduate transfer who started 33 games at South Carolina.
That’s a lot of roster attrition to overcome, but Kyle Whittingham didn’t just luck into seven draft picks. He made it happen, and he’s probably cycling up to do it again.
20. Minnesota
Minnesota merrily rowed all the way to an 11-2 record last fall, losing only to Top 15 teams Iowa and Wisconsin and beating Auburn in the Outback Bowl. The defense was special – ranking No. 10 in the nation – and the offense was good enough to get them to a first-place finish in the Big 10 West and a No. 10 ranking in the final AP Poll.
Now the Gophers have to figure out how to do it after losing a significant amount of production, especially on defense. Four players on that side of the ball were drafted, including All-American defensive back Antoine Winfield Jr.
The offense loses receiver Tyler Johnson and running back Rodney Smith, but returns quarterback Tanner Morgan, receiver Rashod Bateman, and all of the offensive linemen.
The schedule doesn’t seem too daunting for the Gophers. They travel to Madison to take on Wisconsin, but get Michigan and Iowa at home. If they can shore up the losses, particularly on defense, they could do as well or better than last year.
21. Michigan
With rival Ohio State breaking in a new coach and the Wolverines returning most of their key pieces last year, Michigan looked ready to take control of the Big 10. They only lost four games, and all of them to ranked teams, but the missed opportunity had to sting.
And now, the window of opportunity looks to be closing again, as Michigan returns very little production from either the offense or the defense this fall. Shea Patterson has graduated, and ten players were drafted, three of whom left early.
Joe Milton and Dylan McCaffrey will battle to replace Patterson at quarterback. Whoever wins will have help from running backs Zach Charbonnet and Hassan Haskins and receivers Ronnie Bell and Nico Collins. Linebacker Cameron McGrone and defensive back Ambry Thomas will have the responsibility of getting the defense ready.
The Wolverines will have their opportunities again this season against Ohio State and others. They just need to take advantage of them.
22. Cincinnati
Cincinnati’s 11-3 record in 2019 included two losses to conference rival Memphis and a non-conference loss to Ohio State. The Bearcats’ offense wasn’t really up to the task, but a Top 40 defense helped them achieve a No. 21 ranking in the final AP Poll.
This year, the defense loses linebackers Bryan Wright and Perry Young, but gets all of its starters on the defensive line and most of its key guys in the secondary back.
The offense will be looking for improvement, and returns three key pieces to try to make that happen. Quarterback Desmond Ridder had 2,164 yards and 18 touchdowns passing and 650 yards and 5 touchdowns rushing last year. He’ll have his leading receiver Alec Pierce back with him as well this fall. They’ll miss 1,000-yard rusher Michael Warren II, but Gerrid Doaks looks to pick up the slack.
The Bearcats travel to UCF this fall but get both Memphis and Houston at home. If the offense can find a groove, they’ll have a shot at revenge with Memphis this fall.
23. Kentucky
Kentucky posted an 8-5 record without a true quarterback last season. This year, Terry Wilson returns, but he may have to fight off Auburn transfer Joey Gatewood to win back the job. Whoever lines up under center will have nearly 2,000 yards of returning rushing yards to lean on and 80% of the offensive line back. The team’s Top 25 defense loses a key piece at each level but remains a mostly solid group. If they get things worked out in the passing game, they could make some noise in the SEC East.
24. Boise State
Bryan Harsin and the Broncos are poised to make it three out of the last four Mountain West titles thanks largely to the return of quarterback Hank Bachmeier and 1,000-yard rusher George Holani, both of whom earned their stripes as freshmen last year. The team does have significant concerns along the line of scrimmage, however, as most of the starters on both sides have departed, including edge rusher Curtis Weaver. Boise State will get a chance to shine when Florida State comes to town the third week of the season.
25. UCF
UCF looks to get back to the top of the American Athletic after finishing second to Cincinnati last fall. This year, the nation’s No. 2 offense returns quarterback Dillon Gabriel, who threw for 3,653 yards and 29 touchdowns as a freshman last season. McKenzie Milton, who missed all of last season with a serious leg injury, may be ready to compete for the position again as well. Eight starters return on defense, including most of the secondary. Hosting Cincinnati late may decide the season for the Knights.
Gameday on Rocky Top 2020 should hit the newsstands all over the state of Tennessee (and select locations in neighboring states) somewhere in the back half of June. Hey, that’s an astounding degree of precision in these uncertain times.
As a Gameday on Rocky Top reader, you can get it before then, because we get our copies at the same time the distributor gets theirs, and we can get copies in the mail the next day while the distributor needs another week to get them into the stores.
With all of the uncertainty this year, we are printing fewer copies, so while the magazine is going to be on the newsstands in Tennessee and in limited areas in neighboring states, it could be a teensy bit more difficult to find this summer. So, skip the scavenger hunt and the face mask and reserve your copy now.
Why should I get this magazine?
As always, our Gameday magazine is More of Your Favorite Team and No Ads. We narrow our focus and go deeper on the teams you care most about and intentionally avoid adding content you’re probably not going to read. In Gameday on Rocky Top, for instance, we have 48 pages of content devoted exclusively to the 2020 Tennessee Volunteers, and the other 64 pages focus on the Vols’ 2020 opponents, along with their competition in the SEC and the national Top 25. We want you to be interested in every page of our publication from cover to cover.
Also, if you’re looking for good and solid reasons to believe in the Vols this season, this is for you. The longer we wrote, the more these things magnified our optimism for the season:
Continuity always matters, but it probably matters even more this year with the offseason cut short. Tennessee has more roster and coordinator continuity this year than it has since 2014.
History shows that an offense explodes in Jim Chaney’s second year at the controls. This is Jim Chaney’s second year at the controls.
If Cade Mays is eligible, Tennessee will return 108% of its offensive line starts from last year. 🙂 The defensive line also improved dramatically last year. A team is better when it is good in the trenches.
That’s just a taste of why we’re even more optimistic than usual about the Vols this season.
How can I get the magazine?
Here are the ways you can get a copy:
Order a physical copy online for $12.99 plus tax and shipping, and get it a week before it hits the newsstands.
Pick up a physical copy in your grocery or drug store for $12.99 plus tax when it hits the newsstands in late June.
We also plan to offer this year’s edition electronically at a lower price point through some combination of downloadable PDF, mobi, epub, and/or online membership. We hope to have more details on that early next week, so if you’re interested in an electronic version, stay tuned.
Gameday on Rocky Top 2020 College Football Preview Magazine
Last week we looked at the last 15 years of Tennessee’s SP+ data and found that the Vols’ 2020 projection in that metric would be a season most similar to 2009, 2012, and what became of 2016. The common thread in those years: you came to kickoff almost every single week believing the Vols had a real chance to win.
If the 2020 Vols had a real chance to win every Saturday, from Furman to Alabama, they would be on a short list in Tennessee’s recent past. In the 11 seasons since Phillip Fulmer left the sideline, the Vols have been a three-possession underdog at kickoff 17 times (via closing lines at covers.com). Only in 2015 and 2016 did the Vols escape a three-possession line the entire year. And only in the other two best-comparison SP+ years – Lane Kiffin’s 2009 and Derek Dooley’s final campaign in 2012 – were the Vols only a three-possession underdog once. Kiffin took the air out of a +30 line against Urban Meyer; Dooley’s Vols were +19 against Alabama in his final season.
Including Fulmer’s final 2008 season, the Vols lost 35 games by at least 17 points in the last 12 years. The only season in that stretch without a three-possession loss: 2015, which is the only season without a two-possession loss since 1998. The next year the Vols were blown out by Alabama but had no other three-possession losses.
But again, other than 2015 and 2016, losing multiple games by 17+ points has become the norm. The transition years from Butch Jones to Jeremy Pruitt are particularly damning, with 11 three-possession losses in 2017 and 2018. Other than 2015 and 2016, the only seasons in the last 12 years with just two 17+ point losses:
2009: Dexter McClustered at Ole Miss, and an underrated Virginia Tech team pulled away late
2014: at #4 Oklahoma, at #3 Ole Miss. The Vols were feisty when Josh Dobbs took over, but also faced Georgia and Florida in down years; this was Missouri’s second division title year
Here too, I’d include 2012 in the conversation: the loss to Florida was technically three possessions at 37-20, but as you might not want to recall, the Vols led that thing midway through the third quarter before the defense became non-existent. They were blown out by Alabama. And they threw in the towel at Vanderbilt in Dooley’s final game.
So, if the 2020 Vols just played every opponent to within two possessions? They’d join only 2015 as the only Vol squad to do so since…2001! And once you start going backwards from there, you’re on a first-name basis with the three-possession losses in the 90’s: Nebraska, two losses in The Swamp plus a Florida loss in Knoxville featuring Todd Helton, and two weird bowl blowouts to Penn State. That’s the entire list of 17+ point losses in the 90’s.
Have a chance to win every game/stay within two possessions, and 2020 would join 2015, 1998-2001, 1996, 1992, and 1990 in the last 30 years. So of course, it’s not the only benchmark for a successful season – the Vols did plenty of good in years when they got up on the wrong side of the bed one week. But it would be a clear step forward. And more than anything, for fans it’s about the value of that belief: “We have a chance to win this game.”
It’s almost magazine time – more on that soon from Joel – but this week our writing staff had a conversation on this year’s cover and title. After the Kiffin/Dooley era and Butch Jones’ first season, we – as writers and fans – have spent many of the last six summers asking some form of the same question: “Okay, we’re going to make progress this fall, right? But how much?”
Now on our fifth coach in the last 13 years, the same length of time between our last division title and now, I find a lot of the necessary patience is now built in to that question. The majority don’t look at the 2020 Vols and their 2020 schedule and use the “back” word with large swaths of confidence. That’s never been a fruitful pursuit in the first place, the 90’s now three decades gone. But the hope remains that we will go “forward” this fall. How far?
Setting aside the large list of uncertainties related to the coronavirus, some of the most helpful context for me comes from the same source we use often when talking football. Bill Connelly’s SP+ data is our favorite predictive model for the future, and one of the most interesting when looking back at the past.
In last year’s magazine, we did an adaptation of a story on our site from January 2019, ranking the last 50 years of Tennessee Football in SP+. The metric itself goes back to 2005, but in 2016 Connelly developed estimated SP+ ratings all the way back to 1970. The primary takeaway from our story: to show just how far the Vols fell in 2017, the worst Tennessee season of the last 50 years by a healthy margin. That framed Jeremy Pruitt’s initial work, which still finished third-to-last in SP+ since 1970, but represented significant progress over the year before. Pruitt’s rebuilding task is historically most similar to what the Vols were trying to accomplish in the early 1980’s, which Johnny Majors ultimately paid off in 1985.
That story used percentile ratings: the 2017 Vols were in the 17th percentile, while Tennessee’s best teams of the last 50 years were in the 95th-98th percentile all-time. But in framing 2020, I find it helpful to just use the actual SP+ data from the last 15 years. In this year’s preseason SP+ ratings, the Vols earned a 14.7 (points better than the average team on a neutral field). How does that compare to the last 15 years of Tennessee football?
Working backwards through the list, we get:
The Bottom
2017: 1.2 SP+ rating (points better than the average team on a neutral field)
No need to dwell here: total collapse to 4-8, blown out by Missouri and Vanderbilt, no other option but change.
The First Year (or Years 0 & 1 for Dooley)
2013: 5.1
2018: 5.5
2011: 6.9
2010: 7.7
Not much surprise here either: the first seasons for Dooley, Butch, and Pruitt, plus an injury-riddled second year for Dooley. One other common theme here: all four of these teams faced particularly difficult schedules. Dooley and Butch got Oregon in year one, Pruitt got West Virginia. Dooley’s second year, the last of facing two rotating SEC West opponents, saw the Vols get #1 LSU and #8 Arkansas. Butch got the Kick Six Auburn team in year one; Pruitt got (and beat) a ranked Auburn team in year one.
Fulmer’s Down Years Are Now Our Year 2
2019: 10.7
2008: 12.0
2014: 12.2
2005: 12.3
Last season is at the bottom of this tier; not a bad accomplishment considering what happened in September. The 2019 Vols would be five point favorites over the 2018 Vols, themselves four point favorites on their 2017 counterparts. The 2008 Vols had the nation’s number one defense in SP+…and the Clawfense finished 97th. Butch’s year two died against Florida but was resurrected by Josh Dobbs. And the 2005 Vols got sick on the quarterback carousel with injuries just as contagious.
The good news about this tier: in all four of these cases, Tennessee was significantly better the next season.
We Have a Chance to Win This Game
2020: 14.8 (preseason projection)
2012: 15.1
2009: 16.2
2016: 16.3
The preseason SP+ ratings put the 2020 Vols as four points better than their 2019 counterparts on a neutral field. That means they’d be two touchdown favorites on the 2017 Vols. Not bad work from Jeremy Pruitt going into his third year.
What’s the common theme in this tier? I think it’s competitiveness: not with Missouri and Vanderbilt, but with everyone. In 2009, 2012, and 2016, only against Alabama in 2012 should the Vols truly have had no shot. Some of these games turned into nice surprises for us (Kiffin vs Florida and Alabama). Some of them went very differently than we thought at kickoff the other way (Dexter McClustered in 2009, Dooley’s last hurrah at Vanderbilt, South Carolina and Vanderbilt in 2016).
Remember for 2016 in particular, this rating takes the entire season into account. In preseason, the 2016 Vols were at 19.2 in SP+. Those three points could’ve made a difference against Texas A&M, South Carolina, and Vanderbilt. So you’ll also note this tier features records from 5-7 to 9-4. Now, I don’t think the 2020 Vols are looking at 5-7 unless there are catastrophic injuries. But herein lies the beauty of SP+: every play counts, and it’s meant to give you an idea of a team’s strength, not the value of their resume. Not all 9-4’s are created equal, as we learned under Butch Jones. In this group you also had total breakdowns on the defensive side of the ball in 2012 and 2016 tied to new coordinators, another plus for the 2020 Vols who bring back the same faces.
So this becomes a helpful framework for 2020: can I come to kickoff thinking we have a chance to win every Saturday? This group had its flaws, but I do think they’re at least a half-step above, “Can beat anyone and be beaten by anyone.” You’re still going to get an upset here and there. But for teams on this level, you could believe victory was possible every week.
Competing For Championships
2006: 18.9
2015: 19.5
2007: 20.2
The step beyond for Tennessee: get back to Atlanta. The 2007 Vols did it. The 2015 Vols were one play(s) away against the Gators from doing it. And the 2006 Vols were ranked eighth in November before Erik Ainge got hurt.
Here again, this framing is more fruitful to me than chasing memories of the 90’s. And here again, each of these teams lost four games. But their relative strength was a step above what we saw in the previous tier: that group we expected to compete, this group (which is where 2016’s preseason numbers would go) we expected to win.
To me, the question isn’t about whether the Vols can break into this tier in 2020. If they do the work well in the previous tier – competitive with Oklahoma, Florida, Alabama, and Georgia – they’ll have a chance for clear success and progress.
Of course, these numbers are all about predicting your ability to win. The most important thing is to actually go do it. Hitting what feels like the top portion of realistic projections for 2020 – win one of those four big games and don’t get upset by anyone else – and following it up with a Citrus/Outbackish bowl victory would put the Vols at 10-3. Tennessee hasn’t won 10 games in a season since 2007, and hasn’t ended a year with less than four losses since 2004. That would be a tremendous accomplishment.
The wins will always matter most. But Pruitt has done a good job getting forward progress from the Vols from the bottom of 2017. There should be more of that on the way this fall. How much?
If I can come to kickoff 13 times this year and believe we’ve got a real chance to win, that’s a really good start. If this team can finish off some of those wins, the Vols will keep this whole thing moving forward.
With yesterday’s decision by the NCAA to extend its
recuiting dead period another month to June 30th, let’s take a look
at a handful of ramifications for Tennessee recruiting:
It goes without saying that, along with Ohio State,
Tennessee has flat out owned the COVID-19 imposed dead period. The Vols have added 14 (!!!) commitments
during this time span, including two 5-stars and six 4-stars. This in turn has rocketed the Vols class
ranking to #2 nationally behind only the aforementioned Buckeyes and made
Tennessee the talk of college football.
So it goes without saying that, whatever Coach Jeremy Pruitt and his
staff – from assistant coaches to the social media and player personnel teams –
are doing is working better than what everyone else is doing. One might therefore argue that an extension
of this dead period, where no on-campus visits are allowed, is beneficial to
Tennessee’s efforts going forward. The
old “If it ain’t broke don’t fix it.”
Due to the extension of the dead period, several prospects
that Tennessee is heavily recruiting won’t be able to take official visits to
other schools that were planned for June.
Most importantly among them, instate TE Hudson Wolfe – one of the
top priorities on Tennessee’s entire board – was scheduled to take an official
visit to Ohio State the weekend of June 12th, when the Buckeyes were
set to host Wolfe among at least a dozen of their current commitments. With that visit off the table – and his
mother was set to attend as well having never been to Columbus before – that
could hurt OSU (the presumed leader) should Wolfe want to make a decision
sooner rather than later. Especially as
Tennessee continues to recruit him harder than ever. 4-star DE Landyn Watson, who just
named Tennessee among his final six schools, was set to take an official visit
to Virginia Tech the following weekend, but that’s obviously cancelled. With the Hokies thought to be the leader in
that recruitment, this gives Tennessee more time to recruit Watson harder.
On Tuesday, the NCAA also passed a blanket rule lifting the
limit on phone and Zoom-type calls for 2021 football recruits during the
since-extended dead period. By pushing
that dead period back and month, that’s 30 more days (plus the rest of May)
that recruits will be subject to constant harassment from schools if they don’t
go ahead and commit somewhere. Now,
obviously, in this day and age a commitment doesn’t mean that schools stop
calling, but it certainly slows it down.
It also allows a young man to just turn off his phone for a while since
he’s secure knowing he’s got a spot somewhere that he likes and wants to
be. What does that mean? Maybe nothing. But it could absolutely accelerate the
timeline even further for some prospects who are already tiring of the process.
With 21 commitments already and a board of realistic targets
that in all honesty Tennessee would feel good about with about half that amount
of pledges, the Vols sit in an enviable position vis a vis supply (of
scholarships) and demand (number of elite recruits very much feeling the Vols
at the moment). And with the above changes
to the rule, that could put Tennessee in a strong spot over the next 45 (or
more) days as more and more recruits feel the urge to shut things down with a
commitment.
Speaking of commitments, Tennessee looks to be in a very
strong position to pick up #22 when TE Miles Campbell from South
Paulding High in Douglasville, GA announces his decision Monday May 18th. Campbell, already up to 6’4 and 235 pounds
vs. his listed 6’3 220, will be celebrating just his 17th birthday the day of
his commitment, making him pretty young relative to his grade. That leaves even more room for physical
growth for a young man who displays a tremendous amount of speed and body
control for someone his size. Campbell,
who has offers from Auburn, Florida, North Carolina and Michigan among others,
also shows the kind of willingness to block and take on contact (even as a ball
carrier from the Wildcat on a few occasions) that is needed along with the
pass-catching skills for what Tennessee wants in a TE. With Tennessee in need of two Tight Ends in
this class, Wolfe will absolutely have right of first refusal for the second
spot if Campbell does indeed commit to the Vols. If he decides to head elsewhere though, the
Vols do have a nice board behind him. Tennessee
is in great shape with Jumbo ATH Trinity Bell from Albertville, AL, and
appears to have a lead on instate Auburn.
The catch with Bell is that, at 6’7 and 250 pounds, he’s projectable at
multiple positions from OT to DE along with TE.
So in theory the Vols could take a commitment from Bell and still have a
TE spot open. Tennessee is also right at
the top for the #1 JUCO TE in the country in Quentin Moore and is competing
with homestate Washington – the Huskies may have the lead for Moore but
Tennessee is right there with them. Finally,
there is 4-star Nevada native Moliki Matavao, who has a top 6 that includes
Tennessee, Washington (see above with Moore), UGA (who is more focused on Brock
Bowers), Penn State (where he’s never visited), Oregon and UCLA. Matavao visited Knoxville last year and
appears to hold Tennessee in high regard, along with apparently having a
relationship with star LB Henry To’o To’o. Finally, of course, Tennessee also has commitments
from two Dee Beckwith clones in Roc Taylor and Julian Nixon, who
could both project as Hybrid WR/TEs
As long as Tennessee continues
recruiting like it has been for the last 4-6 weeks or so, no one in Knoxville is
going to complain about an extension of the dead period. And with the upcoming commitment of Campbell
next Monday along with a handful of other prospects who could be on the verge
of pledging to the Vols, look for Coach Pruitt and Tennessee to continue to
take full advantage and put on more steam.
They have proven that no matter the condition they are prepared to outwork,
out-evaluate, and outdo the rest of the SEC and, frankly the rest of the
college football world.
If 2014 South Carolina is the decade’s most rewatchable game, 2011 Cincinnati remains one of its most rewatchable offensive performances. Tyler Bray went for 400+ yards, Da’Rick Rogers and Justin Hunter each had 10 catches for 100+ yards, and all three were playing just the second game of their sophomore seasons. It’s worth repeating: other than everything from the first half of 2016, no performance of the 2010’s made you feel like we were closer to being back than walking out of that Cincinnati game.
It made Justin Hunter’s ACL tear on the opening drive at Florida that much harder. Then Bray broke his thumb at the end of an eight-point loss to Georgia. Then the Vols faced #1 LSU, #2 Alabama, #9 South Carolina, and #8 Arkansas four of the next five weeks.
That part went about how you’d think; in hindsight it’s interesting to note the difference between Derek Dooley’s injury-plagued second team getting blown out by Top 10 teams and Butch’s last/Pruitt’s first teams getting blown out by Missouri and Vanderbilt. But in the moment in 2011, it felt like rock bottom from a competitiveness standpoint.
The building frustration led to Thumbwatch 2011; there was a great clip I can’t find anymore where Dooley, clearly tired of being asked about Bray’s health multiple times a week, just exclaimed, “He’s got a broken thumb!” When I get asked the same question too many times, that quote still plays in my head.
But Bray got the green light to return against Vanderbilt. This was James Franklin’s first season in Nashville, and after getting blown out by #12 South Carolina and #2 Alabama, Vandy only lost to Georgia by five, Arkansas by three, and Florida by five. Bowl eligibility was on the table for both teams.
2011 Vanderbilt is one of those games that wouldn’t matter much if Tennessee was “back”, but was really good in its moment, then lost so much of its meaning because of what we’re actually here to talk about today. The Vols went up 7-0 early, Vandy missed a field goal, then Bray threw an interception on the very next play. But he connected with Rogers on a beautiful third down touchdown pass to put Tennessee back in front 14-7.
We’re going along nicely from there, still up 14-7 with 3rd-and-goal with five minutes left in the third quarter. But Bray was pick-sixed, changing the complexion of the entire game. Vanderbilt took the lead three minutes into the fourth quarter. Tennessee made an epic 13-play drive to tie it again, capped by a fourth-and-goal touchdown from Bray to Rogers on a one-handed grab. And Prentiss Wagner ended Vanderbilt’s threat in regulation with an interception at the 35 yard line.
So now, the Vols are 5-6. More importantly, you can still believe the things you wanted to believe after the Cincinnati game: with a healthy Bray and Justin Hunter set to return next fall, this team could be all the things you wanted them to be. Maybe we’d even get a shot at redemption in the Music City Bowl as a nice consolation prize. Things were looking up: injuries took it from us in 2011, but we could really be back in 2012.
#6: All we have to do is beat Kentucky
Tennessee had beaten Kentucky 26 years in a row, at the time the longest-active streak in the nation among annual rivals, and the longest in the history of the SEC (since broken by Florida vs Kentucky at 31 years until 2018). Unlike Vanderbilt, which played in zero bowl games during Tennessee’s 22-year win streak from 1983-2004, Kentucky made the postseason eight times during those 26 years of losing to Tennessee, including the last five seasons in a row.
But they would not be going bowling in 2011. A 2-0 start and a close loss to Louisville were followed by blowouts. Florida won by 38, LSU by 28, South Carolina by 51. In November they did beat Houston Nutt’s final Ole Miss squad, then lost to Vanderbilt by 30. The week before playing the Vols they were feisty in Athens, losing to Georgia 19-10.
That loss knocked them to 4-7 and broke the bowl streak. Rich Brooks revitalized the Cats, who hadn’t made a bowl game since a two-year run with Tim Couch in 1998 and 1999. But Brooks led them to four straight seven-or-eight win seasons from 2006-09, including the memorable 2007 group who beat #9 Louisville and #1 LSU before falling to the Vols in four overtimes.
The rise under Brooks (and subsequent 6-6 campaign in Joker Phillips’ first year) made the Tennessee series closer, but didn’t change the outcomes. In those 26 years, only eight Tennessee-Kentucky games were decided by a single possession, and three of those came in 2006, 2007, and 2009. The Vols made memorable comebacks against Kentucky in 1995 and 2001. In between, including all the games against Tim Couch, the Vols won 56-10, 59-31, 59-21, 56-21, and 59-20. It’s like we were trying to make them so similar.
Sometimes I find that we talk about the current state of the Florida series the way Kentucky talks about us: either “surprise” blowouts, or an unbelievable sequence of events we can sum up in just a few words. Alex Brown. Gaffney. Clausen in the rain. 4th-and-14. The hail mary.
For us, they are particularly cruel and unusual mistakes. For Florida, it’s simply “finding a way to win.” For Kentucky against the Vols in the 2010’s, there’s a 21-0 lead with Jared Lorenzen, still tied for the third-biggest comeback in Tennessee history. A nine-point lead in Knoxville with 12 minutes to play in 2004, swiftly undone by (checks notes) Rick Clausen. There are any number of moments in the 2007 game, from the one yard line on the last play of regulation to just making a 34-yard field goal in double overtime. No Tennessee win has been of greater consequence in the last 13 years.
Even after the events of 2011 and 2017, when the Vols were somehow +4 in turnovers and completed a hail mary on the last play of the game but still lost, I’d imagine this mindset still creeps in for Kentucky fans. The 2017 game was almost a relief for us, the final nail for Butch Jones. But the last two years haven’t produced the results Kentucky fans had in mind against Jeremy Pruitt: blown out in 2018 with their best team since the 1970’s, turned away at the goal line in Lexington last fall. Kentucky still hasn’t won in Knoxville since 1984.
All that to say this: in 2011, you fully expected to beat Kentucky. But you especially expected to beat Kentucky on the heels of that win over Vanderbilt, when Kentucky is playing a wide receiver at quarterback.
Stats of interest from the box score:
Matt Roark: 4-of-6, 15 yards
Total Yards: Tennessee 276, Kentucky 215
Penalties: Tennessee 5-for-32, Kentucky 11-for-85
And yet.
Kentucky “drove” 62 yards in 15 plays to kick a field goal on their opening drive. Early in the second quarter, they blocked a field goal. On Tennessee’s next drive, the Vols had 4th-and-4 at the UK 31, went for it, and failed to convert. So the Cats led 3-0 at the break, but after that first drive had four punts on three three-and-outs. They opened the second half with another one, Bray was intercepted at his own 34-yard line, then Kentucky went four-and-out. The Vols punted. Three-and-out again.
When we say the Vols got beat by a wide receiver playing quarterback, it’s really the insult after the injury. Roark did his job in not turning the ball over. He did almost nothing else. But on 2nd-and-goal with six minutes left in the third quarter, and the Vols finally ready to quit screwing around…they fumbled. And Kentucky made one drive, including a 26-yard Roark scramble on 3rd-and-12, that found the end zone. The Cats led 10-0 with 14 minutes to play.
I still wasn’t worried. It’s Kentucky. And three plays later, Bray and Rajion Neal connected for a 53-yard touchdown pass. Word. Everything is back on.
Kentucky, as you’d expect, went three-and-out. But Bray was sacked on first down, and the Vols punted back. Kentucky got one first down and punted again. This time the Vols failed to convert a 3rd-and-4, punting it back from their own 26 yard line with 4:34 to go. And one more time, Tennessee’s defense produced a three-and-out. That’s eight for the game.
Needing a field goal to tie, Tennessee got the ball at their own 28 with 2:35 to go. Bray and Rajion Neal connected again, this time on 3rd-and-10, to move the ball to the Vol 41.
But two plays later Bray was sacked again. And then on 4th-and-17, he threw an interception.
It still feels surreal.
Joe Rexrode had a really good story on Derek Dooley and Daniel Hood in The Athletic this week. With almost a decade of hindsight, I’m not sure Dooley did any better or worse than a reasonable expectation of the guy who went 17-20 at Louisiana Tech and took over in mid-January. The biggest what-ifs with him are after this game, many of them named Sal Sunseri. But this is the game that made all those what-ifs carry so much extra weight. Losing to Kentucky – to this Kentucky team – cashed in any reserve goodwill he had. Tennessee fans really wanted him to work for a long time because he wasn’t Lane Kiffin. And the 2011 season in particular was full of so many legitimate reasons for the benefit of the doubt between the schedule and the injuries.
But none of that matters when you lose to Kentucky in the last game of the year, a bitter aftertaste that removed any benefit of all the doubt to come. A fun night against NC State led to a flickering moment of real hope against the Gators two weeks later, the Vols back in the Top 25 and ahead of Florida midway through the third quarter. But that lead vanished in quick and brutal fashion. The Vols were close a number of times against the rest of the 2012 schedule. But close wasn’t nearly enough, most especially because of what happened in this game the year before. The weight of the Kentucky loss carried over everything else to come for Derek Dooley, ultimately ushering in a new regime.
This loss meant a lot for Dooley’s career, but hasn’t changed much in the series overall, or Tennessee’s fortune as a program. The Cats are still trying to beat Tennessee. And the Vols are still trying to get back.
Had a chance to catch up with Tennessee WR target the other day. The Birmingham-area standout talked about what he’s been doing during the shutdown, the current status of his recruitment, and more below.
Q: What’s your current height and weight?
A:
“I’m 6’2, 185 pounds.”
Q:
Tell me about your game as a WR. What
are your strengths and what are the major things you think you need to work on?
A: “ My
strengths are attacking the ball, my jumping ability, and route running. I’ve been working a lot on using my hands to
get separation from DBs.”
Q: Do you feel
like you’re going to be a leader for your team? If so, what kind of
leadership qualities do you bring?
A: “Yes
sir. I bring motivation to my teammates
on and off the field. And I’m big on
showing younger guys the right way to do things.”
Q: Do you play
any other sports? Talk about those and
how you think competing in multiple sports helps you on the gridiron.
A: “I play
basketball, Small Forward. It’s helped
with my leaping ability.”
Q: What have
you been doing workout wise during the shutdown?
A: “Drills,
cone work, weights, and just a lot of running.”
Q: “How many
times have you been to Tennessee’s campus?
Talk about the experience
A: “A lot, I
think maybe six or seven times. The
facility really stands out. The coaches
just really treat you like you’re at home.
I’ve been to one game, UAB last season.”
Q: Who is your
main recruiter on the Tennessee staff?
A: “Coach
Niedermeyer has been recruiting me, but Coach Tee and I talk almost every
day. We talk about personal stuff,
football stuff, school. He’s just trying
to get to know me better as a person.”
Q: What do you
make of the recent run the Vols have been on?
A: “It shows me
they’re doing a good job getting players.”
Q: Tennessee
signed Reginald Perry from Fairfield Prep just this past February. Do you know him well and what’s he told you
about Tennessee?
A:
“Yes, sir, we’re pretty close. He said
he loves it there, that’s it’s a real brotherhood, and that he loves the
coaches.”
A couple of days after we spoke, Bennett put out a Top 8 of Tennessee, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Georgia, Alabama, UAB and Louisville and Kentucky. He’s been to all of those campuses except Texas A&M, but he plans to see the Aggies as soon as the visit moratorium is up along with getting back to Tennessee, Georgia (where he’s been for a game but not a campus tour) and likely the rest again as well. With Tennessee having recently gotten a commitment from Julian Nixon, the Vols now have four pass-catchers on their commitment list, so even if the Vols weren’t a ball of fire on the recruiting trail and likely more to come spots at WR would be at a premium. Tennessee continues to try with 4-star Donte Thornton from Baltimore and Deion Colzie from Athens, GA, though both look like longshots at the moment. At the same time, the Vols remain in the mix for a solid prospect like JJ Jones from Myrtle Beach, SC and is trying to get involved with recent Florida decommitment Breshard Smith, who at 6’3 and 5’8 respectively certainly are different types of players, with Jones obviously more of a “big WR” like Tennessee already has committed in Nixon and Roc Taylor. The Vols are also very much in the mix for speedster Malcolm Johnson from VA who boasts an offer list as impressive as his track times. Bennett’s physical profile is more in between those two, and seems like a good fit with what the Vols have already brought in. Just from the amount of time he’s spent on Rocky Top and his relationship it’s easy to see that he’s got a lot of familiarity with and fondness for Tennessee. Should the Vols decide to push for him it’s clear that they would have a very good chance, although he is definitely impressed with the UGA offer and the Dawgs in particular will get a shot to impress him on a visit if they want to. At the same time, he’s not in any hurry and doesn’t seem to be swayed by all of the momentum Tennessee has right now. So, this could be a case where it’s best for both sides to let things play out and see what the landscape looks like in a few months. In the meantime, don’t be surprised to see Bennett continue to pick up more offers – potentially from the instate powers – as his film is impressive as is his off the field personality.
It’s not on our countdown, but one of the best moments for Tennessee football in a decade full of lesser options came in early 2016: Peyton Manning beat Tom Brady in the AFC Championship Game, won his second Super Bowl, and rode off into the sunset.
Manning had been Tennessee’s greatest hero for two decades. Not only did he rewrite SEC and NFL record books, he played 18 seasons at the game’s highest level. Thirteen of Tennessee’s NFL Draft picks taken during Manning’s NFL career made the Pro Bowl: Al Wilson, Jamal Lewis, Shaun Ellis, Chad Clifton, Travis Henry, John Henderson, Albert Haynesworth, Jason Witten, Scott Wells, Dustin Colquitt, Jerod Mayo, Eric Berry, and Cordarrelle Patterson. Arian Foster, a fantasy football god, makes 14.
Jamal won a Super Bowl in 2000 and was the NFL Offensive Player of the Year in 2003 (the same year Manning and Steve McNair split the MVP). Witten made 11 Pro Bowls; only 15 players (including Manning) have ever made more. Berry made five, and would’ve made more if healthy.
But no one ever came close to Manning, in accolades and in popularity among Vol fans. Some of it was the nature of playing quarterback, and the absence of any other NFL starter from Tennessee after him. Some of it was simply Manning.
By the time he retired, the Vols had been in the wilderness for seven years. No offense to Nathan Peterman – we’ll get to him in a minute, actually – but no Vol quarterback had taken meaningful snaps as a starter in the NFL since Peyton. Tee Martin, Erik Ainge, and Jonathan Crompton were all fifth round picks. Tyler Bray, once thought to have the brightest NFL future of any Vol QB since Manning, ultimately went undrafted (but has found stability and success as a backup with the Chiefs and Bears the last seven years).
For a Vol quarterback seeking this kind of long-term legacy, the shoes to fill are large, and have been largely empty since Manning. And into all that stepped a sophomore quarterback we weren’t prepared to expect much of.
#7: Josh Dobbs Ignites
Speaking of unfair expectations, Josh Dobbs’ first collegiate action came against Alabama, Missouri, and Auburn in 2013. Those three teams finished the year ranked seventh, fifth, and second. Dobbs had some excitement around him because he was clearly a different athlete than Justin Worley, who was knocked out of the Alabama game immediately following a surge of optimism against Georgia and South Carolina. And the freshman Dobbs did his best against those odds. He was unable to lead a touchdown drive against Missouri, and the points Tennessee did score against Auburn (23) were quickly overwhelmed by the Tigers’ (55).
And then came one of the first crossroad games for Butch Jones: James Franklin’s final Vanderbilt team, with the Vols at 4-6 and still alive for bowl eligibility. These Commodores would finish the season ranked, and Franklin got the job in Happy Valley. Vanderbilt earned its second win over Tennessee since 1982 the year before in Derek Dooley’s last game; that kind of loss tends not to sting as much from our perspective. But this contest carried real weight for both sides.
Dobbs threw an interception on his first pass attempt, putting the Vols in a 7-0 hole. The Vols went three-and-out on their next two drives, wasting great field position after their own interception. Marquez North was out with an injury. And Tennessee really stayed away from the pass after that.
Dobbs’ final stat line in this game is 11-of-19 (57.9%) for 53 yards (2.8 yards per attempt) with two interceptions. But it was actually even worse than that: Vanderbilt’s infamous 92-yard drive to take the lead with 16 seconds left gave the Vols a few heaves downfield. Dobbs completed two passes against prevent coverage for 14 and 23 yards in those last 16 seconds, then was incomplete on the final play of the game. So before the final drive, Dobbs was 9-of-16 (56.3%) for 16 yards. I think you can handle the YPA math on that.
Something we found ourselves saying some leading up to the 2016 season about Dobbs’ ceiling – do they trust him enough to throw it downfield enough to win? – was first a topic of conversation about his floor. When you have that kind of performance in a crucial game against any Vanderbilt team, you find your way to an assumption from the fan base: this guy isn’t the answer.
Justin Worley was back for his senior season, Riley Ferguson transferred after spring practice, and Tennessee did not sign a quarterback in its (otherwise massively successful) 2014 class. Four-stars Quinten Dormady and Sheriron Jones would come in the next year, setting the stage for competition after Worley left.
I probably led the league in word count in defending Justin Worley in the first half of the 2014 season, so no need to revisit all that. But kudos to that kid for standing back there behind the greenest of offensive lines, which eventually led to him getting knocked out for the season for the second year in a row.
By that point, the Vols had missed a critical opportunity for the second time under Butch Jones: first Vanderbilt to stay bowl eligible in 2013, then perhaps the Gators at their lowest point since we started playing them every year in 2014. Tennessee imploded in the red zone, lost 10-9, and a lot of momentum Jones had built through recruiting fell by the wayside. After a win over Chattanooga, back-to-back top five opponents from Ole Miss and Alabama compounded the problem.
Against the Tide, Nathan Peterman got the start. With a fist-pumping Lane Kiffin on the sideline, Alabama scored a touchdown on its first snap and raced to an unbelievable 27-0 lead just 18 minutes into the game. In the stadium and probably elsewhere, you felt like they might go for 100 points and 1,000 yards.
Peterman gave way to Dobbs, whose first three drives ended in two punts and a fumble. And to be sure, Bama’s defense probably relaxed up 27-0. But Dobbs worked a 10-play, 84-yard drive to get the Vols on the board, then Aaron Medley knocked home three to make it 27-10 at the break.
In between the Vol defense stopped the Tide on its opening drive of the third quarter, setting up this from Dobbs: 3rd and 7 complete to Marquez North for 22, 3rd and 2 to Ethan Wolf for 10, 3rd and 8 on his own with a brilliant 15 yard pump fake scramble, then another 3rd and goal at the 9 and another touchdown as Von Pearson hit the brakes and they flew right by.
Tennessee didn’t complete the comeback, falling 34-20 after cutting Bama’s lead to 27-17 at that point. But Dobbs erased the memories from Vanderbilt and put possibility on the table. You only had to wait a week to cash it in.
I’ve called this Tennessee’s most rewatchable game of the decade a number of times. Unlike the options from 2016 that carry mixed amounts of frustration for what that season didn’t become, this game – as an incredible team performance, insane comeback, and the genesis of Josh Dobbs as the Tennessee quarterback of the decade – is pure joy. Honestly, Tennessee’s wild comeback against Indiana in the Gator Bowl is probably underrated because this one happened just five years earlier. The after-midnight-but-hey-it’s-daylight-savings! postgame is one of my favorite things I’ve ever written.
In his next-to-last start in 2013 against Vanderbilt, Dobbs was 9-of-16 for 16 yards and two interceptions before facing the prevent defense, plus 11 carries for 23 yards.
In his first start in 2014 at South Carolina, Dobbs was 23 of 40, 301 yards (7.5 YPA), 2 TD, 1 INT. Plus 24 carries, 166 yards, 3 TD on the ground.
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