Category Archives: Football

Here’s our weekly color-coded look at how the Vols’ national rankings are trending in each of the official NCAA stat categories. A word of warning: With the pandemic causing conferences and teams to start their respective seasons at different times, the stat rankings are comparing teams that have played to teams that haven’t, so beware any hard, fast, and confident conclusions until much closer to the end of the season.

Offense

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.

Appears to be doing well: Passes intercepted, tackles for loss, sacks allowed, passing yards per completion, passing offense

Appears to need improvement: 3rd down conversions (which also suggests that the bottom in this new world is somewhere around 70, at least this week), first downs offense (this is surprising to me), red zone offense, rushing offense

Defense

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.

Appears to be doing well: Team sacks, team tackles for loss, rushing defense, first downs defense

Appears to need improvement: Passing yards allowed, red zone defense

Special Teams

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.

Appears to be doing well: Honestly, it’s hard to say at this point, although the punt return and punt return defense (and maybe kickoff return) numbers are probably good news even now.

Appears to need improvement: Net punting, although two of the three guys from Thinking Out Loud last night gave Vols punter Paxton Brooks credit for winning the game with that rugby punt.

Turnovers and Penalties

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.

Appears to be doing well: Not giving the ball to the other team

Appears to need improvement: Penalties per game, taking the ball from the other team

1-0! Feels good!

Don’t take a seven game winning streak for granted

The historical benchmarks for a Tennessee team looking for success typically go, “Since 2015-16, since 2007, since 2004, since 2001, since 1998.” Seven wins in a row? Jeremy Pruitt’s Vols join 2015-16 as the only team(s) to accomplish that since 2001. And this is just the 10th seven game winning streak for the Vols in the last 35 years:

• 7 in a row: 1985-86, 2001, 2019-20
• 8: 1986-87, 1990-91
• 9: 1997
• 10: 1988-99
• 11: 1995-96, 2015-16
• 14: 1998-99

Tennessee will be an underdog at Georgia in two weeks, but could become the just eighth Vol group since 1985 with an eight game winning streak if they beat Missouri on Saturday.

How hard is it to win at 1-of-11 on third down?

At least in Tennessee’s own history, it’s so unusual it’s hard to find a good comparison; as we noted in the postgame last night, usually that kind of performance gets you beat by 30+ points.

Four years ago, the Vols beat Kentucky with just one third down conversion…but they only had five attempts all game, that November offense running at its best-in-the-nation rate. If you’re looking for victory, I can find only two other candidates: a 2-of-15 slog when the Vols almost lost to UAB in Derek Dooley’s first season, and a 3-of-14 performance against, you guessed it, South Carolina in the black jerseys the year before. Consider how much more the Vols could’ve won that game by…which is a sentence I’d like to entertain for this year’s team as well.

All that to say: going 1-of-11 on third down is unusual by itself, and beating an SEC team on the road while you do it is downright stupid, which fits this year quite nicely, thanks.

Where does last night rank for Jarrett Guarantano?

National stats are kind of worthless with only 72 teams having taken a snap so far. Guarantano’s 259 yards ranks 18th nationally as a ypg average at the moment, but obviously wouldn’t finish there. The best comparison for JG right now is Past JG.

Tennessee’s quarterback has a pair of games on his resume that will be fairly difficult to top:

• 2018 Auburn: 21-of-32 (65.6%) for 328 yards (10.3 ypa) and 2 TD/0 INT as a two-touchdown underdog
• 2019 Missouri: 23-of-40 (57.5%) for 415 yards (10.4 ypa) and 2 TD/0 INT as only the third Vol QB to throw for 400+

Unless JG goes off in one of our biggest games this season, he’s unlikely to turn heads in the same way he did at Auburn. And I’m all for him throwing for 400+ again, it’s just highly unusual around here.

But after those two games? Guarantano played really well off the bench against South Carolina last year (11-of-19 for 229) and had similar numbers in the 2018 win over Kentucky (12-of-20 for 197). But among games he started, I think yesterday was his third best performance as a Vol: 19-of-31 for 259 with a TD, a rushing TD, and no picks, with the game-winning touchdown strike in the fourth quarter. It clearly could’ve been better, though some percentage of that responsibility belongs to not having Jennings and Callaway out there. But compared to JG’s past, I thought it was solid.

Tennessee was 1-of-11 on third down. Last year the Vols had at least four third down conversions in every game. In 2018 Tennessee was 2-of-10 against Missouri. You have to go back to the worst season, record wise, in school history in 2017, against the best competition: 1-of-12 against Georgia, 1-of-12 against Alabama. Tennessee lost those games by 41, 38, and 33 to Missouri.

Tennessee won tonight.

There was clear improvement in the offense’s every-down consistency: in the first half Tennessee didn’t face anything longer than 3rd-and-6. The Vols stayed out of trouble, but couldn’t make nearly as much as they could have for South Carolina.

It goes in the books as a decently clean game offensively: 394 yards in 65 plays at just over six yards per play, and no turnovers. Jarrett Guarantano had his moments, good and bad, but never let a ball go that put Tennessee in danger. He hit a big deep ball to Josh Palmer (six catches, 85 yards) to put the Vols in front 31-24, and connected with seven different targets a year after losing his biggest two.

It was Jauan Jennings’ absence that was felt the most on third down:

Guarantano took two first half sacks on third down and missed some open receivers. Jim Chaney kept going back to him; Tennessee’s ground game was similarly clean if not spectacular. But the Vols simply couldn’t connect to extend drives.

And that kept South Carolina alive deep into the night. Tennessee’s defense dominated early after surrendering an opening touchdown. But the Gamecocks and Mike Bobo adjusted well, opening the third quarter with two touchdowns, an inches-short conversion attempt on an end around, and a field goal to tie the game 24-24.

When Guarantano and Palmer put the Vols back in front with less than ten minutes to play, the defense got two big plays the rest of the way home. Bryce Thompson blew up a screen on South Carolina’s next offensive snap, ending their next drive immediately. And with the Gamecocks driving the next time down, a false start penalty forced a 1st-and-15 at the 31 yard line, and they found no traction from there, settling for a field goal to cut it to 31-27.

They would get one more chance, of course. But then this year kind of kept happening to South Carolina, while the Vols got a momentary escape: a rugby-style punt from Paxton Brooks bounced into a South Carolina player and into the willing arms of Jimmy Holiday, and the Vols get the victory.

Will it get prettier from here? Jauan Jennings isn’t walking through that door, but Guarantano will get more reps with guys like Brandon Johnson, who had a huge catch on Tennessee’s only third down conversion early in the night, as well as all the newcomers. The Vols didn’t have Shawn Shamburger in the secondary tonight and gave up 10 catches and 140 yards to Shi Smith; it felt like 97% of Carolina’s offense came on a slant route.

And yet it’s kind of fitting for this year that in something so unique and horrendous like 1-of-11 on third down, our team still found a way to win. There are no bad wins in a 10-game SEC schedule. Tennessee gets to 1-0 with Missouri coming to Knoxville next week. Consistency can come if the virus allows it. But the Vols – now winners of seven straight overall – used some of what they learned last year and just enough of everything else to get a road win tonight anyway.

Getting any football would’ve been a gift. We got 1-0.

Go Vols.

Two bits of good news this week: the Pac-12 is back, giving as full a meaning and purpose to our college football institutions as is available in 2020. The College Football Playoff will select from a full field, though they’ll now have the unenviable task of picking four teams from (at least) five conferences that didn’t play the same number of games. ESPN’s FPI currently projects conference championship games that include something like 10-1 Clemson vs 9-2 Notre Dame, 9-1 Alabama vs 8-2 Georgia, 9-1 Texas vs 8-2 Oklahoma, and 7-1 Ohio State vs 7-1 Wisconsin. In such a mess, I’m not sure any team that doesn’t win its division would have enough of an argument to get in, but I’m sure that won’t stop anyone from trying.

The Pac-12’s return also puts the polls in their proper historical context. Tennessee is ranked 16th in the AP poll, which doesn’t include Big Ten/Pac-12 teams, and 21st in the coaches’ poll, which doesn’t include the Pac-12. It’s probably most helpful to think of the Vols at #25, their preseason ranking, and go from there. But at least the final polls will include the all the major options.

Those final polls are one way to measure a season that will surely need some additional data than the final record. 6-4 will be worth much more than it normally would with everyone playing a more difficult schedule. And you could also have a host of teams with the same record, all a little unsure how to feel about it. So that’s where the second bit of good news this week comes in: not only does it appear we’re still getting bowl games this year, but everyone is eligible. Taken out by the virus at 3-7? Welcome to Shreveport, baby!

We all deserve a participation ribbon this year; I’ve got no problem with it. But more to the point, the possibility of a bowl trip we’d normally be excited about, even if it’s light on the trip portion this year, can help validate a good result for Tennessee.

If everybody hit their most likely outcome, the SEC would finish like this:

SEC East

1. Florida/Georgia winner at 8-2
2. Florida/Georgia loser at 8-2
3. Tennessee/Kentucky winner at 5-5
4. Tennessee/Kentucky loser at 5-5
5. South Carolina 4-6
6. Missouri 3-7
7. Vanderbilt 0-10

SEC West

1. Alabama 8-2
2. Texas A&M 7-3
3. Auburn/LSU winner at 6-4
4. Auburn/LSU loser at 6-4
5. Ole Miss 4-6
6. Mississippi State 3-7
7. Arkansas 1-9

Let’s assume the SEC Champion is making the playoff either way, even with two losses. In this scenario, we might find the loser in Atlanta and the second place SEC East team also making the New Year’s Six. If the traditional structure holds, 7-3 Texas A&M would be the Citrus Bowl pick, and the 5-5 Vols would find themselves in the group of six bowls, with Nashville the most likely destination.

But if the Vols got to 6-4, they might find themselves a prime candidate for the Outback Bowl. A 6-4 season that ended with a shot at, say, Michigan in what would join our 2015 (and 2006, and 2007) Tampa appearance as Tennessee’s most prestigious bowl destination since 2004? That would give some extra juice to 6-4.

In a year when final record will be a terrible way to compare teams from one conference to another but a much better way to compare teams from the same conference, every win could make a big difference come bowl time. Our best benchmarks for forward progress this year remain:

1. Having a real chance to win every single Saturday
2. Staying in the SEC East race deep into the season

But if Tampa (or Orlando!) is out there as a reasonable destination? Everyone deserves the participation ribbon, but the Outback or Citrus Bowl would be an excellent exclamation point for Tennessee this year, and they could get there at 6-4 or better.

Last year, before kickoff, it was, “It’s nice to play a cupcake for a change!” So lesson one: whatever we say, say it very carefully.

Georgia State was supposed to be the first easy Week 1 opponent for the Vols since Butch Jones’ debut against Austin Peay in 2013. If there’s any good news in that, it’s that we’re used to a challenge right away, expected or otherwise. That means a job well done in week one is incredibly rewarding…and incredibly difficult to come by.

That incredibly rewarding feeling? We’ve only seen it once on opening weekend in these last six years. On a Sunday night in Neyland, Tennessee scored on its second drive against Utah State, recovered a fumble on the ensuing kickoff, and scored again on the very next play. The Vols routed Chukie Keeton and the Aggies 38-7 behind a solid 27-of-38 for 273 and three touchdowns from Justin Worley. It’s not that you thought the Vols were going to win it all after that one, and it’s not that Tennessee didn’t disappoint mightily against Florida a month later. But a good first impression, especially in unusual times, is valuable beyond fan expectations. And since 2014, week one has gone differently:

• 2015: This Kamara kid might be the real deal, but will we ever stop a go route again? Did we really give up 557 yards to Bowling Green?
• 2016: Never schedule Appalachian State. Ever. Never ever.
• 2017: Well, we gave up 655 yards to Georgia Tech, but we won woooooooooooooooooooooo (what a spectacularly insane football game that ultimately amounted to nothing).
• 2018: Hmm, so not having Butch Jones out there didn’t automatically make us good enough to beat West Virginia. Okay.
• 2019: (Fulmerized)

How often does the first impression stick? The 2015 Vols did indeed stop a go route, and ended up coming closer to the promised land than any other team post-Fulmer. The warning signs from 2016, 2017, and 2018 turned out to be true. And the story of last season was about Georgia State, then about how they were able to make it not about Georgia State, and give this season a chance to make us remember it again as a starting point for something much bigger than 8-5.

If future schedules hold, the Vols will open 2021 with Bowling Green and 2022 with Ball State before traveling to Provo to open 2023. So maybe this is a temporary issue. But for the next 11 weeks, the only break is the bye week. This will be an entirely new experience for all of us, not only watching Tennessee but watching Georgia and Florida have real opportunities to lose almost every Saturday. Much like conference play in basketball, every win is a good win. So if we get a grumpy win, we’ll take it and move on to Missouri. We’ll take one every Saturday in the chase for the SEC East.

But man…wouldn’t it be fun to get off to a good start?

Go Vols.

Tennessee opened as a 2.5-point favorite over the Gamecocks this week, and the line is now vacillating between 3 and 3.5. So . . . does the Statsy Preview Machine think the Vols will cover against South Carolina Saturday night? Let’s take a look and then decide whether we think it’s right.

From the perspective of Tennessee

Neither Tennessee nor South Carolina have played a game yet this year, so the SPM will be using the prior year’s data both for (1) scoring offense and defense, and (2) comps.

Tennessee’s Scoring Offense last year: 24.2
South Carolina’s Scoring Offense last year: 22.4

Tennessee’s Scoring Defense last year: 21.7
South Carolina’s Scoring Defense last year: 26.1

The South Carolina scoring defense is most similar to the following prior Tennessee opponent(s) (FBS only) and using 2019 data:
South Carolina 26.1
BYU 25.5

Against BYU, Tennessee scored 26 points
Against South Carolina, Tennessee scored 41 points
So, against the two best comps, Tennessee is scoring 130% of what those teams usually give up.

Estimated points for Tennessee against South Carolina: 33.9

The South Carolina scoring offense is most similar to the following prior Tennessee opponent(s) (FBS only) and using 2019 data:
South Carolina 22.4
UAB 23.1

Against UAB, Tennessee allowed 7 points
Against South Carolina, Tennessee allowed 21 points
So, against the two best comps, Tennessee is allowing 61% of what those teams usually score.

Estimated points for South Carolina against Tennessee: 13.7

Estimated score: Tennessee 33.9, South Carolina 13.7

From the perspective of South Carolina

South Carolina’s Scoring Offense last year: 22.4
Tennessee’s Scoring Offense last year: 24.2

South Carolina’s Scoring Defense last year: 26.1
Tennessee’s Scoring Defense last year: 21.7

The Tennessee scoring defense is most similar to the following prior South Carolina opponent(s) (FBS only) and using 2019 data:
Tennessee 21.7
Texas A&M 22.5

Against Tennessee, South Carolina scored 21 points
Against Texas A&M, South Carolina scored 6 points
So, against the two best comps, South Carolina is scoring 61% of what those teams usually give up.

Estimated points for South Carolina against Tennessee: 13.2

The Tennessee scoring offense is most similar to the following prior South Carolina opponent(s) (FBS only) and using 2019 data:
Tennessee 24.2
Missouri 25.3

Against Missouri, South Carolina allowed 34 points
Against Tennessee, South Carolina allowed 41 points
So, against the two best comps, South Carolina is allowing 152% of what those teams usually score.

Estimated points for Tennessee against South Carolina: 36.8

Estimated score: South Carolina 13.2, Tennessee 36.8

SPM Final Estimates

Throw it in, cook it up, take a peek:

SPM Final estimated score: Tennessee 35.3, South Carolina 13.4

SPM Final estimated spread: Tennessee –21.9

Difference between the SPM and the Vegas opening spread: 19.4

That’s a huge difference between the SPM’s projected spread and the Vegas line. It’s so big, in fact, that it’s over the sweet spot and into possibly-wonky territory.

Eyeball adjustments

The estimated points for Tennessee is probably inflated a bit just based on last year’s numbers, as it relies on the Vols’ 41 points against South Carolina in their last meeting, which was a bit of an anomaly. We probably shouldn’t expect them to get that 130% of what teams usually give up unless JIM CHANEY YEAR 2 WOO. If we remove last year’s game, the next best comp is Indiana, a game in which the Vols basically scored what the Hoosiers averaged giving up. So, if we use 100% instead of 130%, we get an estimated point total for the Vols of 26 from Tennessee’s perspective. With that, the combined estimated points for the Vols (from both teams’ perspectives) falls to 31.5.

Similarly, removing UAB as the second-best comp for Carolina’s defense leaves Missouri as the next-best, and the Vols held them to about 80% of what they averaged last season. At 80% instead of 60%, that’s still only 18 points for the Gamecocks from Tennessee’s perspective. So, their cumulative points moves only from 13 to 16, and we still have the Vols doubling them up.

From South Carolina’s perspective, if we removed Tennessee’s 41 points scored against them last year and look at Kentucky instead, that moves their percentage to 78%, which would make the Vols points 19. Combined, that’s still 22 points for Tennessee against 13-16 for the Gamecocks.

As far as intangibles go, my gut is in accord with the machine this week. If there’s any such thing as a hot seat in a pandemic year, Will Muschamp is on it. And until I see otherwise, I’m believing in significant improvement from Tennessee’s offense in Jim Chaney’s second year. I like the Vols by at least a touchdown and am fairly confident in something more.

So, my eyeball-adjusted prediction is Tennessee 28, South Carolina 13. Both I and the Statsy Preview Machine like the Vols to cover in this one.

Other predictions from other systems

As I said before, the Vols opened as 2.5-point favorites and are currently 3 – 3.5-point favorites. With an over/under of 43.5 – 48, that translates to something like Tennessee 24, South Carolina 21.

Bill Connelly’s SP+ likes Tennessee 24-20 (Vols -4), and gives the Vols a 60% chance of winning.

Bottom line

The GRT Statsy Preview Machine loves the Vols and I like them a lot as either a 2.5- or 3.5-point favorite. It has overshot the sweet spot for the machine, though, so some suspicion is advised.

• Vegas: Tennessee, -3.5 (~Tennessee 24, South Carolina 21)
• SP+: Tennessee 24, South Carolina 20 (covers)
• SPM: Tennessee 35, South Carolina 13 (covers with a woo)
• Me: Tennessee 28, South Carolina 13 (covers)

What do y’all think?