Category Archives: Football

The GRT Statsy Preview Machine inched out of the garage after a service call last week and basically just took a cruise around the block getting a feel for its new wheels. It went 14-13 (51.85%) overall last week, and hit only .500 in both Category 2 (7-7) and Category 3 (3-3). For the season, it is now 31-30 (50.82%) in Category 1, 18-12 (60%) in Category 2, and 8-6 (57.14%) in Category 3. Incidentally, if you compare its projections to the same spreads that SP+ uses, it went 17-10 (62.96%) overall last week, about the same as SP+ itself. I trust Bill on the spreads he’s using; I just don’t know the source. I use Oddsshark’s “Opening” spreads. Whether that’s a casino, sportsbook, Oddsshark itself, or just whoever is first, I don’t know. If anyone can enlighten, I’d love to hear it.

But for now, here are the GRT Statsy Preview Machine’s picks for Week 5 of the 2020 college football season. As always, if you’re wondering why we do this or what I mean when I refer to “confidence” and when I place game predictions into different categories, check out this post.

GRT SPM 2020 Week 5 Picks

The Unknowable is losing a bit of chaotic power but is still a threat to rear its head and wreak havoc. With that caveat, here’s what we have for this week:

There are only four Category 3 games that the SPM likes particularly well this week.

What are you favorite games this week?

The Tennessee Volunteers kick off Gameday this week at noon on the SEC Network, and there are six (six!) games involving eight (eight!) future opponents (plus one former opponent) that will probably impact the Vols’ 2020 season.

First up is this week’s college football TV schedule curated just for Vols fans. A full and searchable college football TV schedule for this week is below the curated version.

Friday, October 2, 2020

If you owe your family or someone else some time, you’re good both Thursday night (no games) and Friday night. If you’re looking to kill some time with football, though, this one will do the job.

Gameday, October 3, 2020

The Vols kick the day off in the noon slot on the SEC Network when they host the Missouri Tigers. But set your DVRs for the South Carolina-Florida game, too, as we’ll get some more information about how frightened we should be of the Gators.

In the afternoon slot, we get looks at three future Vols’ opponents. Alabama and Texas A&M square off on CBS. Assuming the Vols beat Missouri at noon, root for the Tide here, as it increases the chances that the Tennessee-Georgia game the following week gets the prime CBS 3:30 slot. Kentucky also plays in the afternoon slot, so keep your eye on both games.

The feature game in the evening slot is Georgia-Auburn on ESPN at 7:30. Root for Georgia here, as the Bulldogs also need to win for the Vols to be playing at 3:30 on CBS instead of noon next Saturday. Future Vols opponents Arkansas and Vanderbilt are also in action, so watch live what’s most interesting and DVR the rest unless you’d prefer to just channel hop among all three all night long.

Full searchable college football TV schedule

Here’s the entire 2020 college football TV schedule for this week:

Below is a look at Tennessee’s national stat rankings side-by-side with the counterpart rankings for the Missouri Tigers. Again (we’re saying this a lot), be wary of the numbers, especially Missouri’s, as they’ve only played Alabama so far.

Details below.

When the Vols have the ball

Link to table

Where’s the opportunity?

It would appear that the Vols should have an opportunity in the passing game, although Missouri’s bad numbers so far against the pass should probably be attributed to having played Alabama. Still, they were better against Alabama’s rushing attack than they were against the Tide’s passing attack, so maybe there’s something to it.

Where’s the danger?

Tennessee did not do well against South Carolina on first downs, and Missouri did quite well defending first down against Alabama. Same story in the run game. If Missouri makes Tennessee one-dimensional by shutting down its running attack, that could spell trouble for the Vols.

Gameplan for the Vols on offense

Pass to open up the run.

Vols on defense

Link to table

Where’s the opportunity?

Against South Carolina, Tennessee did well defending the run, on first down, and getting into the Gamecocks’ backfield to disrupt plays. Against Alabama, Missouri struggled against all of that.

Where’s the danger?

The Vols did not do well defending the pass against South Carolina, and that appears to be Missouri’s strength.

Gameplan for the Vols on defense

The Vols appear to have a distinct advantage on defense, although, once again, Missouri is probably better than its numbers suggest right now due to only having played Alabama at this point. Still, if Tennessee shores up its pass defense, they should be in relatively good shape.

Special teams

Link to table

Small sample sizes here, so any conclusions are suspect.

Turnovers and penalties

Link to table

Again, it’s hard to draw too many firm conclusions here, but one game in, the Vols have protected the ball better than Missouri has. On the other hand, Missouri has been the more disciplined team from a penalty perspective.

Without Jauan Jennings and Marquez Callaway, we prepared ourselves for two outcomes: the instant emergence of mythical freshman wide receivers, or more opportunities for Eric Gray and Ty Chandler in the passing game. It’s hard to use the word “exciting” when those new opportunities come at the expense of no longer having #15 and #1 out there, but both options felt full of possibility.

Instead, 16 of Jarrett Guarantano’s 19 completions at South Carolina went to veteran wide receivers.

It worked, so no complaints here, just an early observation.

Josh Palmer is one-for-one as the alpha: six catches, 85 yards, and the go-ahead score in the fourth quarter. That’s a great sign. I thought Velus Jones played a role similar to the way the Vols used Von Pearson a few years ago, finishing with five catches and 29 yards, unable to fully break free but with plenty of opportunity ahead, it seems. Brandon Johnson had the best catch of the night, finishing with three for 73. And Ramel Keyton was targeted more often than his two catches for 20 yards.

It’s early, and it’s weird with the virus. But none of the freshmen got involved in the passing game in week one, and Tennessee’s failures on third down didn’t allow enough distance between the Vols and Gamecocks to get them some snaps with Tennessee holding a comfortable lead.

Meanwhile, what we saw from the running backs in the passing game was…basically what we saw from the running backs in the passing game last year. Eric Gray got 31 yards on the ol’ flea flicker check down. Ty Chandler had one catch for 10 yards. And that’s it.

Last year Jennings, Callaway, and Palmer were a formidable trio: 123 catches between them, 61.5% of Tennessee’s total on the year by themselves. Dominick Wood-Anderson added 21 catches at tight end. And the backs? Gray and Chandler each finished with 13, or one per game…which is what they got Saturday. Tim Jordan had six catches in a dozen appearances.

The difference between Pruitt’s Vols and what we saw in Butch Jones’ five years can still feel a bit jarring in this department, considering the running back was an essential part of the passing game from 2013-17:

Tennessee’s secondary pass-catching RBs got the same kind of work in Jones’ offense that Gray and Chandler saw last year and last week: Marlin Lane had 11 catches in 2014, Jalen Hurd 22 in 2015 and 10 in his shortened 2016 campaign, Ty Chandler 10 in 2017.

Again, the Vols won and I thought Guarantano had one of his best starts. But I’ll be curious to see if the freshmen can get involved at receiver, and if Tennessee looks to Gray and Chandler more often. So far, it continues to be the preference of both the staff and the quarterback to throw the ball to receivers downfield far more often than not, even without Jennings and Callaway out there. If that continues to work, all this will go from curiosity to real strength. And it’s also nice to feel like the Vols have real options in the passing game we haven’t even seen yet.

Here’s our weekly color-coded look at how the Vols’ national rankings are trending in each of the official NCAA stat categories. A word of warning: With the pandemic causing conferences and teams to start their respective seasons at different times, the stat rankings are comparing teams that have played to teams that haven’t, so beware any hard, fast, and confident conclusions until much closer to the end of the season.

Offense

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.

Appears to be doing well: Passes intercepted, tackles for loss, sacks allowed, passing yards per completion, passing offense

Appears to need improvement: 3rd down conversions (which also suggests that the bottom in this new world is somewhere around 70, at least this week), first downs offense (this is surprising to me), red zone offense, rushing offense

Defense

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.

Appears to be doing well: Team sacks, team tackles for loss, rushing defense, first downs defense

Appears to need improvement: Passing yards allowed, red zone defense

Special Teams

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.

Appears to be doing well: Honestly, it’s hard to say at this point, although the punt return and punt return defense (and maybe kickoff return) numbers are probably good news even now.

Appears to need improvement: Net punting, although two of the three guys from Thinking Out Loud last night gave Vols punter Paxton Brooks credit for winning the game with that rugby punt.

Turnovers and Penalties

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.

Appears to be doing well: Not giving the ball to the other team

Appears to need improvement: Penalties per game, taking the ball from the other team

1-0! Feels good!

Don’t take a seven game winning streak for granted

The historical benchmarks for a Tennessee team looking for success typically go, “Since 2015-16, since 2007, since 2004, since 2001, since 1998.” Seven wins in a row? Jeremy Pruitt’s Vols join 2015-16 as the only team(s) to accomplish that since 2001. And this is just the 10th seven game winning streak for the Vols in the last 35 years:

• 7 in a row: 1985-86, 2001, 2019-20
• 8: 1986-87, 1990-91
• 9: 1997
• 10: 1988-99
• 11: 1995-96, 2015-16
• 14: 1998-99

Tennessee will be an underdog at Georgia in two weeks, but could become the just eighth Vol group since 1985 with an eight game winning streak if they beat Missouri on Saturday.

How hard is it to win at 1-of-11 on third down?

At least in Tennessee’s own history, it’s so unusual it’s hard to find a good comparison; as we noted in the postgame last night, usually that kind of performance gets you beat by 30+ points.

Four years ago, the Vols beat Kentucky with just one third down conversion…but they only had five attempts all game, that November offense running at its best-in-the-nation rate. If you’re looking for victory, I can find only two other candidates: a 2-of-15 slog when the Vols almost lost to UAB in Derek Dooley’s first season, and a 3-of-14 performance against, you guessed it, South Carolina in the black jerseys the year before. Consider how much more the Vols could’ve won that game by…which is a sentence I’d like to entertain for this year’s team as well.

All that to say: going 1-of-11 on third down is unusual by itself, and beating an SEC team on the road while you do it is downright stupid, which fits this year quite nicely, thanks.

Where does last night rank for Jarrett Guarantano?

National stats are kind of worthless with only 72 teams having taken a snap so far. Guarantano’s 259 yards ranks 18th nationally as a ypg average at the moment, but obviously wouldn’t finish there. The best comparison for JG right now is Past JG.

Tennessee’s quarterback has a pair of games on his resume that will be fairly difficult to top:

• 2018 Auburn: 21-of-32 (65.6%) for 328 yards (10.3 ypa) and 2 TD/0 INT as a two-touchdown underdog
• 2019 Missouri: 23-of-40 (57.5%) for 415 yards (10.4 ypa) and 2 TD/0 INT as only the third Vol QB to throw for 400+

Unless JG goes off in one of our biggest games this season, he’s unlikely to turn heads in the same way he did at Auburn. And I’m all for him throwing for 400+ again, it’s just highly unusual around here.

But after those two games? Guarantano played really well off the bench against South Carolina last year (11-of-19 for 229) and had similar numbers in the 2018 win over Kentucky (12-of-20 for 197). But among games he started, I think yesterday was his third best performance as a Vol: 19-of-31 for 259 with a TD, a rushing TD, and no picks, with the game-winning touchdown strike in the fourth quarter. It clearly could’ve been better, though some percentage of that responsibility belongs to not having Jennings and Callaway out there. But compared to JG’s past, I thought it was solid.

Tennessee was 1-of-11 on third down. Last year the Vols had at least four third down conversions in every game. In 2018 Tennessee was 2-of-10 against Missouri. You have to go back to the worst season, record wise, in school history in 2017, against the best competition: 1-of-12 against Georgia, 1-of-12 against Alabama. Tennessee lost those games by 41, 38, and 33 to Missouri.

Tennessee won tonight.

There was clear improvement in the offense’s every-down consistency: in the first half Tennessee didn’t face anything longer than 3rd-and-6. The Vols stayed out of trouble, but couldn’t make nearly as much as they could have for South Carolina.

It goes in the books as a decently clean game offensively: 394 yards in 65 plays at just over six yards per play, and no turnovers. Jarrett Guarantano had his moments, good and bad, but never let a ball go that put Tennessee in danger. He hit a big deep ball to Josh Palmer (six catches, 85 yards) to put the Vols in front 31-24, and connected with seven different targets a year after losing his biggest two.

It was Jauan Jennings’ absence that was felt the most on third down:

Guarantano took two first half sacks on third down and missed some open receivers. Jim Chaney kept going back to him; Tennessee’s ground game was similarly clean if not spectacular. But the Vols simply couldn’t connect to extend drives.

And that kept South Carolina alive deep into the night. Tennessee’s defense dominated early after surrendering an opening touchdown. But the Gamecocks and Mike Bobo adjusted well, opening the third quarter with two touchdowns, an inches-short conversion attempt on an end around, and a field goal to tie the game 24-24.

When Guarantano and Palmer put the Vols back in front with less than ten minutes to play, the defense got two big plays the rest of the way home. Bryce Thompson blew up a screen on South Carolina’s next offensive snap, ending their next drive immediately. And with the Gamecocks driving the next time down, a false start penalty forced a 1st-and-15 at the 31 yard line, and they found no traction from there, settling for a field goal to cut it to 31-27.

They would get one more chance, of course. But then this year kind of kept happening to South Carolina, while the Vols got a momentary escape: a rugby-style punt from Paxton Brooks bounced into a South Carolina player and into the willing arms of Jimmy Holiday, and the Vols get the victory.

Will it get prettier from here? Jauan Jennings isn’t walking through that door, but Guarantano will get more reps with guys like Brandon Johnson, who had a huge catch on Tennessee’s only third down conversion early in the night, as well as all the newcomers. The Vols didn’t have Shawn Shamburger in the secondary tonight and gave up 10 catches and 140 yards to Shi Smith; it felt like 97% of Carolina’s offense came on a slant route.

And yet it’s kind of fitting for this year that in something so unique and horrendous like 1-of-11 on third down, our team still found a way to win. There are no bad wins in a 10-game SEC schedule. Tennessee gets to 1-0 with Missouri coming to Knoxville next week. Consistency can come if the virus allows it. But the Vols – now winners of seven straight overall – used some of what they learned last year and just enough of everything else to get a road win tonight anyway.

Getting any football would’ve been a gift. We got 1-0.

Go Vols.