Tennessee opened as a 15-point favorite over Vanderbilt this week, and as I write this, the line is 14.5. The GRT Statsy Preview Machine isn’t particularly sure of itself this week, but it thinks that line is just a bit high. Here’s why.

Scoring Offense and Scoring Defense for both teams

Tennessee’s Scoring Offense this year: 20
Vanderbilt’s Scoring Offense this year: 14.5
Tennessee’s Scoring Defense this year: 31.3
Vanderbilt’s Scoring Defense this year: 36.8

From the perspective of Tennessee

The Vanderbilt scoring defense of 36.8 is most similar to the following prior Tennessee opponents:

• South Carolina 36
• Arkansas 33

Tennessee scored 31 points against South Carolina but only 13 points against Arkansas.

Together, that’s 64% of what those teams usually give up, making the estimated points for Tennessee against Vanderbilt 23.5.

The Vanderbilt scoring offense of 14.5 is most similar to the following prior Tennessee opponents:

• Kentucky 21.7
• South Carolina 23.5

So yeah, this is the worst offense Tennessee has played this season by a long shot. However, Kentucky got 34 points against Tennessee, and South Carolina got 27, 135% of what those teams usually get. That puts the estimated points for Vanderbilt against Tennessee at 19.6.

Estimated score: Tennessee 23.5, Vanderbilt 19.6

From the perspective of Vanderbilt

The Tennessee scoring defense of 31.3 is most similar to the following prior Vanderbilt opponents:

• LSU 33.4
• Mississippi State 28.4

Vanderbilt scored only 7 points against LSU and 17 points against Mississippi State. That’s a measly 39% of what those teams usually give up, putting the estimated points for Vanderbilt against Tennessee at 12.2.

The Tennessee scoring offense of 20 is most similar to the following prior Vanderbilt opponents:

• Kentucky 21.7
• Mississippi State 18.3

Kentucky got 38 points against Vandy, and Mississippi State got 24. That’s 155% of what those teams usually get, so the estimated points for Tennessee against Vanderbilt is 31.

Estimated score: Vanderbilt 12.2, Tennessee 31

SPM Final Estimates

Combining the results from both perspectives, here’s what we get:

SPM Final estimated score: Tennessee 27.3, Vanderbilt 15.9

SPM Final estimated spread: Tennessee -11.4

Difference between the SPM and the Vegas opening spread: 3.6

That makes this a Category 1 game, meaning the Machine is not particularly self-confident.

Eyeball adjustments

I feel pretty good about most of those comps with the exception of using just South Carolina and Arkansas for scoring defense due to the significantly different performances against those teams. Due to that, I re-ran the Machine using three comps and got this: Tennessee -17.8, which feels more right. However, re-running it again with all games as comps, the result is back to Tennessee -11.5, basically the same as running it with only two comps. ¯_(ツ)_/¯

So . . . I’m going with the all comps version (and leaning toward a higher spread in favor of the Vols): Tennessee 27, Vanderbilt 15. I do think it could easily be more than that, but as good as optimism is at holding my hand through the valleys, it’s terrible at picking games. 🙂

Other predictions from other systems

With the Vols 15-point favorites and an over/under of 51.5, Vegas is predicting a score of something like Tennessee 33, Vanderbilt 18.

Bill Connelly’s SP+ likes Tennessee by 16.8 (Tennessee 34, Vanderbilt 17) and gives the Vols an 83% chance of winning.

Bottom line

I am in reluctant agreement with the Statsy Preview Machine that the Vols will not cover the 15-point opening spread this week. We are both at odds with SP+.

• Vegas: Tennessee 33, Vanderbilt 18 (Tennessee -15)
• SP+: Tennessee 34, Vanderbilt 17 (Tennessee -16.8, covers)
• GRT’s Statsy Preview Machine: Tennessee 27.3, Vanderbilt 15.9 (Tennessee -11.4, doesn’t cover)
• Me: Tennessee 27, Vanderbilt 15 (Tennessee -12, doesn’t cover)

Season results on Tennessee games

• Week 4: The SPM and I were both right (albeit overconfident) in saying the Vols would cover against South Carolina.
• Week 5: The SPM and I were both wrong in thinking the Vols would not cover and would win by only 6 points. They won by 23.
• Week 6: The SPM was right, but I was wrong. The SPM predicted Georgia to cover a 14.5-point spread with a score of Georgia 29, Tennessee 12, while my eyeball adjustment revised that to say the Bulldogs would not cover with a score of Georgia 24, Tennessee 20. Georgia covered with a score of Georgia 44, Tennessee 21.
• Week 7: Both the SPM and I were wrong in thinking the Vols would cover 6.5 points as a favorite over the Kentucky Wildcats. The Vols lost 34-7. Oof.
• Week 8: Both the SPM and I were right in predicting that Alabama would cover the 20-point spread, the machine calling it 47-22 and me calling it 47-24. Alabama won 48-17.
• Week 10: The SPM was right and I was wrong about the Arkansas game. The Machine predicted the Vols would not cover a 1-point spread against Arkansas, and I predicted a 1-point win. Arkansas won 24-13.
• Week 12: Both the SPM and I were right in predicting that Auburn would cover the 11.5-point spread. Auburn won by 13, 30-17.
• Week 14: Both the SPM and I were wrong in predicting that Florida would cover the 17-point spread. Florida won by 12.

Season-long results for all games can be found here.

What do y’all think?

The 2-6 Tennessee Volunteers should finally be able to find some success when they take on the 0-8 Vanderbilt Commodores this weekend. The head-to-head stat rankings suggest that Tennessee’s defense should be able render Vandy’s offense mostly impotent (with some exception for the passing game.) The main question is whether the Vols’ offense can finally get unstuck against a defense struggling as much as it is.

When the Vols have the ball

Link to table

Where’s the opportunity?

While that orange and red monstrosity up there shows that Tennessee’s offense has an advantage over Vanderbilt’s defense in every category except third down conversions, most of the supposed advantages are pretty slight. If there’s an opportunity, it appears to be in the passing game. Maybe I should put a question mark there. Maybe there’s an advantage in the passing game? Yeah, that looks more accurate.

Where’s the danger?

Vanderbilt’s defense is struggling, but so is Tennessee’s offense. This is a game where you just hope that finally playing somebody doing worse than you makes you look and feel a lot better.

Gameplan for the Vols on offense

Whatever you feel like you do best, do that. Get ahead of the sticks, then get ahead on the scoreboard, and then keep doing that until the clock hits all zeroes, and only then can you breathe a sigh of relief. You really should be able to do what you want against these guys, but if you find you can’t, don’t stay in denial for too long. Find something that works, and hurry.

Vols on defense

Link to table

Where’s the opportunity?

The good news is that Vanderbilt’s offense is struggling as much as Tennessee’s, and Tennessee’s defense is doing marginally better than Vandy’s. The Vols’ defense should be able to keep Vanderbilt’s offense from having much of any success, especially on the ground and on the scoreboard.

Where’s the danger?

Vanderbilt’s passing game isn’t breaking any records, but neither is Tennessee’s pass defense, so if this one’s going to hurt, it’s going to hurt through the air.

Gameplan for the Vols on defense

Mitigate any damage through the air, and just keep all the black and gold in front of you and out of the end zone.

Special teams

Link to table

Huge advantage for the Vols on special teams.

Turnovers and penalties

Link to table

Vanderbilt is disciplined from a penalties perspective, but they are even more likely to turn the ball over than are the Vols.

Tennessee’s basketball and football teams are both in action starting at 12:30 on Saturday, and there’s a handful of other hoops and football games to catch this weekend as well.

The full GRT college football TV schedule for the week is toward the bottom of the post, but first we have a curated viewing schedule just for Vols fans.

Thursday, December 10, 2020 – Friday, December 11, 2020

A mixture of basketball and football to start off your weekend. That Kansas game is on there because we’ll (hopefully!) see them soon.

Gameday, December 12, 2020

It’s a Tennessee takeover on the SEC Network to begin your Saturday, as the basketball team tips there at noon-thirty against Cincinnati and the football team takes on Vanderbilt there at 4:00.

Check in on Alabama-Arkansas and Georgia-Missouri during halftime of the basketball game, and then catch LSU-Florida football late on ESPN.

Full searchable college football TV schedule

Here’s the entire 2020 college football TV schedule for this week (as of 10:00 AM on 12/9/20):

Pretty good week for the ol’ GRT Statsy Preview Machine. It went 27-18 (60%) overall, 12-5 (70.59%) in Category 2, and 7-4 (63.64%) in Category 3. For the season, the Machine is now 239-210 (53.23%) in Category 1, 92-74 (55.42%) in Category 2, and 47-37 (55.95%) in Category 3.

Of the seven “Category 4” games, one was postponed, and I excluded another because it wasn’t actually a Category 4 game. The others went 3-2 (60%), making the results for the five weeks we’ve been tracking them 14-3 (82.35%).

Using the same spreads as SP+, the Machine was also 27-18 (60%) overall for the week.

SP+ had a rough week, going 20-25 (44%) officially, using its own spreads. It happens. For the season, SP+ is 229-217-6 (51.3%). It did the same against our spreads this week and is now 246-203 (54.79%) for the season against the same Vegas opening spreads that we use.

Below are the GRT Statsy Preview Machine’s picks for Week 15 of the 2020 college football season. As always, if you’re wondering why we do this or what I mean when I refer to “confidence” and when I place game predictions into different categories, check out this post. Also, in case it’s not perfectly clear from the above results, spreads matter.

GRT SPM 2020 Week 15 Picks

This week, there are 12 Category 3 games, those that the GRT Statsy Preview Machine likes particularly well. Of those, six make the Category 4 cut because they also agree with SP+:

• Georgia at Missouri (Georgia -12.5)
• Northern Illinois at Eastern Michigan (Eastern Michigan -3.5)
• Stanford at Oregon State (Oregon State +4)
• Ohio at Kent State (Ohio +6)
• Minnesota at Nebraska (Minnesota +9.5)
• Navy at Army (Army -5.5)