Category Archives: Football

https://twitter.com/Vol_Sports/status/1542161218277892096

And what you learn along the way is, these little moments are always available. Your team doesn’t have to win it all before they can do something meaningful, before we can enjoy them.

Whenever I hear people asking if this – right now – is as good as it’s ever been, I feel my age. In March and April of 1998, the men’s basketball team made the NCAA Tournament for the first time in nine years, and the Lady Vols went 39-0 to win their third straight national championship. You’re probably aware of what the football team did that fall. Those were some pretty good days.

But what I really think back to is 2007-08. In the summer of 2007, Lady Vol softball played for the national championship. That fall, we won the SEC East in football. In February, we beat #1 Memphis and went to the top of the polls ourselves in basketball. And in April, the Lady Vols won their second straight national championship. It felt like a time less reliant on purely what we did in football, and more about the overall health of the athletic department.

There’s an image from back then that I can’t find, but often reference: Pat Summitt, Phillip Fulmer, and Bruce Pearl sitting together at a Lady Vol softball game. Two Mount Rushmore faces of Tennessee Athletics, and a young (47 at the time!) coach you thought might join them one day. You just knew we were in good hands, and those hands would have us in the hunt.

That’s the real prize, to me: are we in the hunt?

Define success only by winning championships, and you will spend most of your fandom disappointed. But are your teams capable? When you sit down to watch, do you believe they can win? That’s the prize.

Things changed faster than any of us would’ve guessed from those 2007-08 seasons, now 15 years ago. There have still been moments along the way, always accessible. We’ve just had a really hard time lining them up:

• Men’s basketball went to the Elite Eight in 2010, two months after Lane Kiffin left in the middle of the night.
• Pat Summitt was diagnosed with early-onset Alzheimer’s in 2011, still helping the team win the SEC Tournament and reach the Elite Eight in 2012, her final season.
• Cuonzo Martin’s 2014 team came within a charge call of the Elite Eight. He left for Cal soon after.
• The 2015 and 2016 football Vols went 9-4, 3-1 against Florida and Georgia in those two years. Those seasons carried their share of what could’ve been, but still represent the high-water mark for football since 2007. Meanwhile, men’s basketball had their low-water mark for the same span in 2015 and 2016 during the transition from Donnie Tyndall to Rick Barnes.
• Barnes got it going with an SEC Championship in 2018 and a month at #1 in 2019. Those years were preceded by a 4-8 football season in 2017, then a handful of 25+ point losses in 2018.

We got close enough to consider asking the question two ago, after football rallied from a 1-4 start to finish 8-5 in the fall of 2019. Some of those moments were both fun and meaningful. And that remained the struggle soon after, certainly impacted by the pandemic: how to string meaningful moments together, to make one year build on the next.

On the football side of things, credit Josh Heupel and his staff for making his year one far more competitive and exciting than most had planned, then building on it with real momentum in recruiting. And since football season ended, we’ve seen this:

• Men’s basketball won the SEC Tournament for the first time since 1979
• The Lady Vols made the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2016
• Baseball spent most of the season ranked #1, winning the SEC regular season and tournament crowns

It’s not that every program on campus is ready to be considered the best in the land. But in those sports, Tennessee is in the hunt. Softball hasn’t left the hunt.

And that question now turns to football, the biggest hunt of all. The Vols haven’t won 9+ games in the regular season since 2007.

Meaningful Saturdays are out there, and not too many from now. What will this team do this fall?

On a personal note: I started writing about Tennessee 16 years ago, about 10 days after I became a pastor. I’d lived in Knoxville all my life, then moved to Virginia to begin serving churches. And I just missed talking about the Vols.

I did that for a few years just on my own, as it fit into the rhythm of my life. And then Joel Hollingsworth asked me to join the team at Rocky Top Talk, which I did right after Kiffin was hired. And it had such a profound and positive impact on my life, all those years getting to talk about the Vols with so many people, even if the years were often confusing and it felt like no two sports could get it going at the same time.

We left RTT and restarted over here five years ago now, with kids on the way and another move back to Virginia, and more time to write about other things. And through all of that, up to and including a pandemic, sitting down at the keyboard to do this has remained such a positive thing in my life.

Two weeks ago, after 16 years away, my family and I moved back to Knoxville. And starting this Sunday, I’m elated to be joining the team at Powell Church. We’re so thrilled to be part of such a great community, and to be back home in the area. More than anything, we are incredibly grateful.

I still plan on sitting down at this keyboard trying to figure things out, with the Vols and otherwise, and finding its fit in the rhythm of our lives here. Frankly, I don’t know how to be a pastor without it. I just wanted to say thanks – for wherever you’ve read for however often – for making a difference in my life.

The good old days are always out there. And sometimes they seem closer than others.

But they look pretty good from here.

Go Vols.

In the last 10 years, 20 different schools signed at least one Top 10 recruiting class (via the 247 Composite):

• 10x: Alabama
• 9: Georgia, Ohio State
• 8: LSU
• 6: Auburn, Clemson, Michigan, Texas, Texas A&M, USC
• 5: Notre Dame, Oklahoma
• 4: Florida, Florida State
• 2: Ole Miss, Oregon, Penn State, Tennessee
• 1: Miami, UCLA

This list makes sense, right? Wins follow talent, rinse, repeat.

Here’s the question, especially as it relates to Tennessee: how often does talent follow wins?

Do you have to win at an elite level before you can recruit at one? For this exercise, let’s ask it this way: how many programs have signed a Top 10 recruiting class without winning 10+ games in any of the four previous years?

That’s the question for Tennessee’s program right now, sparked by the commitment of Nico Iamaleava, the Vols’ highest-rated prospect since Bryce Brown in 2009. With NIL opportunities and a record-breaking offense, the Vols have momentum.

It didn’t translate into adding more blue chip players into the fold this week, though the Vols have several more on campus this weekend. Missing out on guys we may have talked ourselves into can send the narrative back in the other direction. So maybe it’s helpful to take a more objective look: how realistic is it to expect the Vols to land a Top 10 class before they “prove it” on the field by winning 10+ games?

In the last six years – so 60 Top 10 classes – I count two instances of a program landing a Top 10 class without having won 10+ games in the four previous years (or Texas A&M going 9-1 in 2020).

Let’s start there, in fact: the Aggies finished with the #6 recruiting class in February of 2020. That followed years of 9-4 and 8-5 in Jimbo Fisher’s first two seasons, 8-5 and 7-6 in Kevin Sumlin’s last two. At that point, the Aggies last won 10+ games with Johnny Football in 2012, eight years earlier. Jimbo Fisher, however, won 10+ games at Florida State every year from 2012-2016, including a national championship. That certainly earned them a little extra juice, and A&M paid it off with just one loss in 2020 and a win over Alabama in 2021.

The only other instance in the last 10 years of a team landing a Top 10 class without a recent year of 10+ wins also comes from Texas: the Longhorns finished #3 in the 2018 recruiting rankings. Tom Herman went 7-6 in his first season just before that, and followed three years of seven losses under Charlie Strong. At that point, Texas hadn’t won 10+ games since making the BCS Championship Game in 2009, a nine-year gap. Herman also immediately paid that class off with a 10-4 season in the fall of 2018.

For both Texas in 2018 and Texas A&M in 2020, it wasn’t so much that a ton of true freshmen from one elite class made all the difference, but that the program had real momentum which manifested itself in both recruiting and on fall Saturdays. It became sustained success at A&M, less so for Texas (though shout out to the Mannings).

Either way, these are the only two examples of a program signing an elite recruiting class without a recent season of 10+ wins in the last six years.

So yeah, it’s hard to do and clearly the exception to the rule. The rich tend to get richer in this sport. But Tennessee is a good fit for the kind of “formerly rich” program that could potentially pull it off. We know that’s true, because if you back it up to the last 10 years, you find a few more examples:

• Texas also signed Top 10 classes in 2015 and 2016 under Charlie Strong, despite having no 10+ win season since 2009
• Tennessee did it under Butch Jones in 2014 and 2015, despite having no 10+ win season since 2007
• UCLA and Ole Miss did it in 2013. The Bruins last won 10+ games in 2005. The Rebels did it with Cutcliffe and Eli in 2003.

Is this happening less often these last six years as part of more overall talent consolidation? Could be. Given who is still doing it – and that Tennessee almost did it with Jeremy Pruitt’s 11th-rated class in 2020 – it may be as much resource consolidation as anything.

Maybe the more relevant question for Tennessee is, how different is the challenge facing Josh Heupel right now than the one Butch Jones faced when he signed Top 10 classes in 2014 and 2015? Those groups certainly had the advantage when it comes to proximity to Tennessee’s on-field success. Our last 10+ win season was in 2007. That’s a greater distance than any of these other programs faced. Butch’s classes were also heavier on in-state and legacy kids, an advantage that also becomes weaker the farther you get from on-field success.

But Heupel and company have already landed a bigger fish than any cycle this century other than Bryce Brown in 2009 and Eric Berry in 2007. And those NIL opportunities and the SEC’s overall profile give the current administration some new advantages.

Creating a hardline expectation of a Top 10 class before winning 10+ games on the field seems unrealistic. But believing the opportunity for such a thing can exist at Tennessee? That, thankfully, still appears to be true here. The Vols are 15th in the 2023 ratings right now with only 10 commits. There’s a lot of work left to be done, on and off the field. Nothing will help Tennessee more in recruiting than doing more work on the field; this week was a reminder that you tend not to skip steps in this process, and there are still real stakes in this thing every Saturday.

But the work Tennessee has already done in recruiting, and the surge in competitiveness in year one under this staff, has given the Vols a chance to make that next step in recruiting, even 15 years removed from a 10+ win season. It still speaks to the overall strength of the program, all these years later, that multiple coaches have had those opportunities. And both in recruiting and on Saturdays – and not too many from now – I’m excited to see what this group can do with their chance.

Go Vols.

The addition of Bru McCoy this week raises the ceiling on our hypothetical offseason conversations. And it was already fairly high given what this offense did last season, even with Velus Jones and Javonta Payton now off to the NFL.

There may be more on the way:

Tennessee may not be done adding receivers.

Jaylon Robinson posted career-best numbers back in 2020 playing in Josh Heupel's offense: 55 catches for 979 yards and 6 touchdowns https://t.co/9hh72krLJc

— SEC Mike (@MichaelWBratton) May 4, 2022

Last season Cedric Tillman caught 64 passes, Velus Jones 62. Those two combined for 51.9% of Tennessee’s total receptions, and 63.3% of the receptions among the regular rotation (players catching 10+ passes in 2021). Both of those numbers are higher than anything we’ve seen around here recently:

Top Receiving Duos at UT, 2009-21

Season	Top 2 Pass Catchers	Pct. of Receptions
2021	Tillman & Velus	51.9%
2020	Palmer & Gray	35.2%
2019	Jennings & Palmer	46.5%
2018	Jennings & Callaway	38.1%
2017	B. Johnson & Kelly	41.1%
2016	Malone & Jennings	37.8%
2015	Pearson & Kamara	32.7%
2014	Howard & Pearson	32.7%
2013	Howard & North	42.9%
2012	Hunter & Patterson	41.8%
2011	Rogers & Rivera	43.0%
2010	G. Jones & D. Moore	42.9%
2009	G. Jones & D. Moore	36.9%

Also seeing two players at or close to 50% of the team’s total receptions: UCF under Heupel.

• 2020: Marlon Williams & Jaylon Robinson, 50.6%
• 2019: Gabriel Davis & Marlon Williams, 45.4%
• 2018: Gabriel Davis & Dredrick Snelson, 42.9%

Their 2019 number would also be higher than anything seen at UT in the post-Fulmer era after 2021 and 2019. In the latter, the Vols had the future NFL trio of Jauan Jennings, Marquez Callaway, and Josh Palmer. How does it look if we expand it to the top three targets:

Top Receiving Trios at Tennessee, 2009-21

Season	Top 3 Pass Catchers	Pct. of Receptions
2021	Tillman, Velus, Hyatt	60.5%
2020	Palmer, Gray, Velus	47.5%
2019	Jennings, Callaway, Palmer	61.5%
2018	Jennings, Callaway, Palmer	51.5%
2017	B. Johson, Kelly, Callaway	54.4%
2016	Malone, Jennings, Kamara	54.6%
2015	Pearson, Kamara, Malone	46.8%
2014	Howard, Pearson, Hurd	45.2%
2013	Howard, North, R. Neal	57.1%
2012	Hunter, Patterson, Rivera	54.4%
2011	Rogers, Rivera, D. Arnett	53.8%
2010	Jones, Moore, Stocker	59.2%
2009	Jones, Moore, Stocker	49.4%

Here, outside of that NFL trio in 2019, last season again separates itself from the pack.

Is there a correlation between the best offenses and diversity of targets? Tyler Bray’s 2012 attack and Josh Dobbs’ 2016 squad were almost identical in the percentage of catches by their top three targets; Bray’s used a tight end Dobbs’ a back.

At UCF, trios were the name of the game in their dynamite offenses in 2018 and 2019:

• 2018: G. Davis, D. Snelson, T. Nixon 60.7%
• 2019: G. Davis, M. Williams, T. Nixon 63.5%

So consistently, we’ve seen this coaching staff find its best two or three wide receivers, and ride them to incredible heights all season long.

After two weeks last season, it looked like Tennessee would throw it to the tight end more than ever. But that gave way to a lethal attack involving Velus, Tillman, plus Javonta Payton 18 times for 413 yards.

Jaylin Hyatt actually ended the season with three more receptions than Payton. He caught four passes against Bowling Green in the opener, then didn’t catch a pass until the South Carolina game. His 17 catches over the last eight games made for a nice quartet of options at receiver for Tennessee’s offense, along with 34 combined receptions for Jacob Warren and Princeton Fant.

One consistent truth last season: after the running back being the #3 receiver throughout the Butch Jones era, Heupel’s offense almost never looked their way in the passing game. With just 20 total receptions for backs last season, the Vol offense fell generally in line with what they saw at UCF. Otis Anderson had 31 catches as a back in 2019; no other back had more than 20 in a season during his time there.

This coaching staff loves receivers, and loves finding the best of their best. I would assume it’ll still be important to figure out who the fourth option is in this passing game. But if form holds, the real question at this point is who will be number two.

We’re in this interesting place where matching our best regular season in 14 years is a baseline conversation for year two. That’s in part because Josh Heupel and his team did such a good job exceeding expectations in year one.

So when we look back on “the wilderness”, it’s with a healthy degree of uncertainty about where exactly we are right now. Tennessee’s record, recruiting rankings, and draft picks from 2021 will look similar to what we’ve seen for the last 10+ years. But even that similarity trends positive. If four Tennessee players are drafted this weekend (with Matthew Butler, Velus Jones, Cade Mays, and Alontae Taylor leading projections), that would match the second-highest total for Vol alumni in the last 11 years:

• Six picks in 2017 (Barnett, Kamara, Sutton, Reeves-Maybin, Malone, Dobbs)
• Four picks in 2013 (Patterson, Hunter, Dallas Thomas, Rivera)

And those drafts, of course, came following year three for Derek Dooley and year four for Butch Jones, more time to build on their own terms, etc.

The long view still reflects the wilderness, as Braden Gall’s research showed this week:

Total draft picks, 1sts since 2010:

1. Bama: 101 (38)
2. LSU: 81 (16)
3. Fla: 75 (15)
4. UGa: 68 (12)
5. Aub: 44 (6)
6. TAMU: 40 (9)
7. SCAR: 38 (6)
8. Miss St: 38 (5)
9. Ark: 37 (1)
10. Mizz: 29 (6)
11. Tenn: 29 (5)
12. Miss: 29 (4)
13. UK: 24 (3)
14. Vandy: 16 (0)

— Braden Gall (@BradenGall) April 26, 2022

In the NFL Draft, the Vols are contemporaries with Missouri, Ole Miss, and Kentucky over the last 12 years. It’s similar to what you find in wins going back through the post-Fulmer era: from 2009-2020, Tennessee went 73-75 under Kiffin, Dooley, Butch, and Pruitt. That .493 winning percentage is likewise 11th in the SEC during that span: just behind Ole Miss (.503) and just ahead of Arkansas (.466) and Kentucky (.463), with Vanderbilt bringing up the rear.

If there’s good news here, it will still feel like bad news in the past tense: though the Vols have won games and sent players to the NFL at only the 11th-best rate in the league over the last dozen years, that’s not how we’ve recruited. Tracking the 247 composite rankings back to 2010 as well, Tennessee is probably right where you expect them to be: still among the top half of the league with the other traditional powers, with a clean break to the bottom half.

Average Overall Recruiting Ranking, 247 Composite 2010-22

Team	Average
Alabama	1.69
Georgia	5.62
LSU	6.92
Florida	10.15
Auburn	10.23
Texas A&M	12.08
Tennessee	14.77
Ole Miss	22.85
South Carolina	25.62
Mississippi State	27.31
Arkansas	27.92
Kentucky	33.69
Missouri	36.38
Vanderbilt	47.54

Despite Tennessee’s struggles on the field and in sending its best players to Sunday, the Vols have still recruited as a Top 15 team nationally on average. The lowest-ranked class in this span was 25th in Butch Jones’ first two months on the job in 2013. He also turned in two Top 10 classes the next two years.

So sure, in the past tense, it’s a strike against Tennessee. But for the present and future, it’s a great sign: this program, through four different head coaches and few winning seasons, was still able to pull Top 15 classes on average. The idea that you can win here in line with the other traditional powers in this league? That still holds up quite well.

Which leads one to wonder, of course, what we might do if more wins began to follow.

In that department, the Vols are currently seventh in the 2023 recruiting rankings, have Nico in the boat, and are in on several other blue chip prospects. And the projections for this fall, before any of those kids arrive, trend toward the opportunity to make some recent history.

Do that, and Tennessee will give itself the opportunity to make some capital-H History once more. The potential for this place never left. And the Vols are edging closer to things looking a little less like the wilderness, and a little more like the promised land.

In 2022, how would we feel about 8-4?

In the last 14 years, it’s a number the Vols hit only twice. Tennessee went 8-4 in 2015 and 2016 under Butch Jones. Both of those seasons came with mixed feelings, an 11-game winning streak bookended by disappointing outcomes to open 2015 and close 2016. The Vols made plenty of individual memories in that stretch, but couldn’t sustain enough success to create lasting change.

Six years later, our feelings might still be mixed about an 8-4 outcome. If that’s the case, it’s a testament to what Josh Heupel’s team did in year one.

The 8-4 finishes in 2015 and 2016 came in years three and four under Butch Jones. He went 6-6 in year two. His predecessor went 5-7 after Tyler Bray was injured. And his successor went 7-5 by way of losses to Georgia State and BYU, followed by a six-game winning streak to close the year.

An 8-4 regular season would be the best any of Tennessee’s head coaches have done in year two since Phillip Fulmer. And if you believe in diminishing returns – or at least the idea of it – Josh Heupel’s mountain was steeper than any of them considering what he inherited.

And yet, we talk very little about what he inherited these days because of what he did with it in year one.

In the early returns from our expected win total machine, our community projects the Vols to win 8.1 regular season games. It’ll stay live on our site throughout the summer, then we’ll clear the board when fall camp begins and retake our temperature once we know more about transfer portal outcomes, health, and offseason chatter. Either way, 8.1 is a tantalizing number when you consider it in the form of, “What’s more likely: 7-5 or 9-3?”

Some individual percentage breakdowns we’ll talk more about as we go this summer:

• It’s close, but our community gives the Vols a slight edge in a pair of games the numbers suggest Tennessee will ultimately split: a 57.5% chance of beating Florida, and a 52.8% chance of winning at LSU.
• We’re still not quite ready to assume a major upset, but the Vols get puncher’s odds against Alabama (20.4%) and Georgia (18.6%).
• The numbers suggest Tennessee goes 3-1 in this group of four: at Pittsburgh (65.2%), Kentucky (67.8%), Missouri (73.8%), and at South Carolina (67.8%).

If all of those outcomes held, you’d get 8-4 by way of what we might consider a disappointing loss to a team from that last group, but also a signature win over Florida or LSU. Not all 8-4s are created equal, to be sure.

We think the win total machine does a good job with managing expectations in a healthy way. In that sense, 8-4 might feel like “achievement”: not over, not under, just the head nod and yep, we probably did what we should’ve done.

But here again lies the beauty of hope, bolstered by the reality of the way Tennessee exceeded expectations under Heupel in year one. Tying the best regular season number the Vols have put up in 14 years might feel a little underwhelming at first glance. But just beyond it – well within the realm of the possible – is the kind of season that couldn’t help but elevate your program. A 9-3 finish hasn’t been done here since 2007. If that led to the Outback Bowl, that’s been done once here since then. If that led to the Citrus Bowl, that hasn’t been done here since 2001. If that led to anything beyond, that’s never been done here in the CFP format. And if the Vols won any of those bowl games to finish 10-3, that hasn’t been done here since 2004.

This is the conversation Josh Heupel and this program have built for themselves going into year two, from the ashes of everything they inherited going into year one. Doing it as well as it’s been done around here in the last 14 years is the starting point. And going beyond – and continuing to create real change for this program – is within reach.

Go Vols.

Spring practice is over, opening night is two days closer, and it’s a good time to break out the expected win total machine. Tennessee’s number one ranking in baseball will help these next 136 days from here to Ball State pass more quickly. But after spring practice is still a good time to take the temperature, a little more free from August’s optimism.

If you’re new to our site and/or the win total machine, enter the percentage chance you give Tennessee to win each game this fall. Your number against Ball State should be closer to 100; your number at Georgia should be closer to zero, though I’m curious to see how much distance we’re feeling from there this off-season. Enter all of your percentage guesses, and the win total machine will tell you how many regular season wins you expect from Tennessee this fall.

It’s one thing to say, “We’re going 9-3!” and believe these nine games are 100% wins and those three are 100% losses, which is never how it actually works. That’s why we love the honesty the win total machine brings out, providing an expectation that should be both healthier and closer to reality.

When you submit your totals, you’ll be part of our community expected win total. You can also leave your individual win totals in the comments below for conversation. We’ll check back in with some preliminary analysis as we go.

(If you have trouble with the table on your phone, try viewing the page in desktop mode)

Good luck and Go Vols.

There were 18 coaching changes on the FBS level heading into the 2021 season; that number jumped to 29 on the carousel’s latest round this winter.

Timing – not often Tennessee’s friend these last 15 years – is definitely on our side in this regard. Last year, the Vols rode the carousel with Texas and Auburn among major powers, plus South Carolina as our contemporary. The only other power five openings were Arizona, Illinois, Kansas, and Vanderbilt. Boise State came open when Bryan Harsin went to Auburn, UCF when Josh Heupel came here. That’s about it.

The 2022 year one cycle includes Florida, LSU, Miami, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Oregon, TCU, USC, Virginia Tech, and Washington. That’s ten schools who were in the hunt for a national championship at some point during the BCS/CFP era. Then add in Duke, Texas Tech, Virginia, and Washington State in the power five pool.

You need timing to work in your favor to help get these things right. And then, you know, you need to get it right.

It’s impossible to know anything for sure after one year. We’ve seen that play out at Tennessee before. We regularly use Bill Connelly’s SP+ ratings on our site, both because they value every snap, and because they’re helpful in separating two teams with similar records.

Here’s a look at Tennessee’s four previous year one seasons in SP+:

Coach	Year	Prev. Record	Prev. SP+	Year One	Year One SP+	Wins Change	SP+ Change
Jeremy Pruitt	2018	4-8	1.2	5-7	5.5	1	4.3
Butch Jones	2013	5-7	15.1	5-7	5.1	0	-10
Derek Dooley	2010	7-6	16.2	6-7	7.7	-1	-8.5
Lane Kiffin	2009	5-7	12	7-6	16.2	2	4.2

This has gone one of two ways the last four times we’ve tried it. Lane Kiffin and Jeremy Pruitt were able to take a step forward in year one, for two very different reasons. Kiffin’s team was solid, which you’d expect just two years removed from Atlanta, and more competitive than their 2008 predecessors. Pruitt’s first team had the luxury of following the program’s low point; even though they lost six games by 25+ points, it was still an improvement over 2017.

Year one for Derek Dooley and Butch Jones took a step backwards in overall competitiveness. Both of those seasons followed two of the better teams we’ve seen around here in the last 15 years. Kiffin’s one-year stint automatically put Dooley’s first team behind the eight ball, and the 2010 Vols finished 8.5 points worse in SP+. Dooley’s final team was competitive with almost everyone, but couldn’t beat any of the ranked foes they faced. Meanwhile, Butch Jones’ first team the next year beat #11 South Carolina, but suffered a handful of blowout losses, ultimately finishing 10 points worse in SP+.

Again, no guarantees after one year: Butch Jones turned in a -10 in 2013, but led easily the best Tennessee team from 2008-2021 two years later by any metric. Some situations just naturally lead to more difficult year ones (or year zeroes, as Derek Dooley would say). And that’s what we thought Josh Heupel was walking into: NCAA investigation, rough finish the year before, late to the carousel, massive transfer portal exodus.

How did Heupel actually do?

Let’s compare him to the rest of the freshman coaching class of 2021.

Uh oh, we changed coaches in the summer

Coach	Team	2020 Record	2020 SP+	2021 Record	2021 SP+	Wins Change	SP+ Change
Tim Albin	Ohio	2-1	-2.3	3-9	-11.6	1	-9.3
Maurice Linguist	Buffalo	6-1	5.3	4-8	-9.5	-2	-14.8

I don’t recommend it. Both of these guys followed local legends too: Frank Solich had been at Ohio since 2005. Lance Leipold won two division titles and finished the 2020 season in the Top 25 at Buffalo. As a result, both of these programs were significantly worse in 2021. No surprise here.

A missed first step

Coach	Team	2020 Record	2020 SP+	2021 Record	2021 SP+	Wins Change	SP+ Change
Will Hall	Southern Miss	3-7	-9.1	3-9	-14.2	0	-5.1
Gus Malzahn	UCF	6-4	10.9	9-4	4.8	3	-6.1
Steve Sarkisian	Texas	7-3	16.4	5-7	8.5	-2	-7.9
Butch Jones	Arkansas State	4-7	-9.1	2-10	-17.9	-2	-8.8

Again, some struggles make more sense than others. Jay Hopson resigned after one game of the 2020 season at Southern Miss, an unusual situation Will Hall inherited this fall.

The other three in this group all brought previous power five experience at championship contenders, with Sarkisian being the hottest commodity in the cycle. And yet, play-for-play, all three teams went backwards in year one. The last time UCF lost 4+ games in the regular season was 2016. Tom Herman’s worst season at Texas was 7-6 in his first year in 2017; Charlie Strong’s two 5-7 campaigns in Austin were far more competitive than what Sarkisian turned in. And Butch Jones got off to a similar start in his first year at Arkansas State in SP+ as he did at Tennessee, though the won-loss record is certainly worse.

Again, no guarantees here – Texas did finish fifth nationally in recruiting – but these were all backward first steps.

About the same

Coach	Team	2020 Record	2020 SP+	2021 Record	2021 SP+	Wins Change	SP+ Change
Terry Bowden	UL Monroe	0-10	-22.1	4-7	-20.3	4	1.8
Bryan Harsin	Auburn	6-5	11.4	6-7	11	0	-0.4
Clark Lea	Vanderbilt	0-9	-18.1	2-10	-19.4	2	-1.3
Lance Leipold	Kansas	0-9	-18.4	2-10	-19.7	2	-1.3
Jedd Fisch	Arizona	0-5	-9.1	1-11	-12.6	1	-3.5

Terry Bowden is the biggest winner of this group, which includes a lot of, “Wait and see.” Vanderbilt, Kansas, and Arizona were all winless in 2020, and combined to win five games in 2021. The situation at Auburn probably deserves its own category; in SP+ and in total wins they Bryan Harsin’s first year was almost identical to Gus Malzahn’s. Stay tuned.

A good first step

Coach	Team	2020 Record	2020 SP+	2021 Record	2021 SP+	Wins Change	SP+ Change
Charles Huff	Marshall	7-3	3	7-6	8	0	5
Andy Avalos	Boise State	5-2	5.4	7-5	9.4	2	4

Marshall is an interesting case study, 7-3 in Doc Holliday’s final season, 7-6 in Charles Huff’s first. But the Thundering Herd lost four one-possession games last year, and were dominant in several of their seven victories. Boise State fans probably aren’t satisfied at 7-5, but three of those were one-possession losses and the Broncos also beat BYU and Fresno State on the road. If form holds here, these programs are off to better starts than their win/loss total might suggest.

A really good first step

Coach	Team	2020 Record	2020 SP+	2021 Record	2021 SP+	Wins Change	SP+ Change
Kane Wommack	South Alabama	4-7	-16.1	5-7	-7.2	1	8.9
Bret Bielema	Illinois	2-6	-4.1	5-7	4.3	3	8.4
Shane Beamer	South Carolina	2-8	-2.9	7-6	3.9	5	6.8

Kane Wommack’s first-year squad almost got both Billy Napier (20-18) and Jamey Chadwell (27-21 OT). They also lost a four overtime game at Texas State and by a touchdown at Troy. Bielema recovered nicely from a 1-4 start to beat Penn State and Minnesota on the road.

And credit Shane Beamer, whose Gamecocks lost to the Vols and Texas A&M by 25 and 30, and almost lost to Vanderbilt in a three-week span in October. Since then, they beat Florida and Auburn, and ran away from North Carolina in the Mayo Bowl. It was a really good year one, good enough to earn him a share of the Steve Spurrier award for best year-one coach with…

A transformational first step

Coach	Team	2020 Record	2020 SP+	2021 Record	2021 SP+	Wins Change	SP+ Change
Blake Anderson	Utah State	1-5	-16.3	11-3	0.1	10	16.4
Josh Heupel	Tennessee	3-7	4.6	7-6	17.5	4	12.9

First, shout out to Blake Anderson. A +10 in wins is twice as good as anyone else on this list, and would be most years. Along the way they smoked San Diego State for the Mountain West title. No complaints about his name at the top of this list.

But Josh Heupel is clearly above everyone else.

He followed one of the toughest and least competitive years at Tennessee with one of the most competitive teams we’ve had here in 14 years. In SP+, the 2022 Vols are the second-best team in Knoxville since 2008, bested only by the 2015 team. The Vols went 1-3 in one-possession games, with two of those losses to New Year’s Six teams from Pittsburgh and Ole Miss.

One forward-looking piece of good news here: when we get overly cautious about the Vols being #9 in 2022 SP+ projections? Tennessee’s rating there is 18.7: just 1.2 points better than last season. The model doesn’t project the Vols to be drastically better than they were last season, because it already believes the Vols were really good.

Again, no guarantees after one year. But not only did Josh Heupel do it better in 2021 than any year one we’ve seen around here, and every other first-year coach last season but one? His team also was better play-for-play than every Tennessee squad save one in the last 14 years. For first impressions, you can’t ask for much more. And it’s created a hope based in performance as much as possibility.

Here’s one thing it feels like is happening to Tennessee more often than it actually is: the Vols get to third-and-short, go fast, and get stopped because defenses know what’s coming.

Even in Josh Heupel’s fast-paced offense, no two games are exactly alike. It feels like the Vols do that on third-and-short a lot because against Purdue, Tennessee had fifteen snaps with 1-3 yards to gain on third or fourth down. That’s fifteen opportunities to pick up a first down in short yardage (via ESPN’s play-by-play data).

By comparison, the Vols never faced that situation against Kentucky.

That’s wild.

It feels like, at least to me, that the Vols get in that situation and just go zone read, with the read to the back more often than not. It’s burned into our brains because that was Tennessee’s last offensive snap in the Music City Bowl. But against Purdue, on those 15 snaps the Vols ran it 12 times, with Hendon Hooker keeping on four of them. He also had a first quarter completion to JaVonta Payton, an incomplete pass in that dreadful second quarter, and the incomplete go route to Cedric Tillman with the jersey pull.

All told, the Vols converted eight of those 15 third-or-fourth-and-shorts against Purdue. Those plays always feel like you should convert them closer to 100% of the time if it’s your team with the ball, but of course, that’s not how it works either. In overtime, Tennessee faced this situation four times, and was stopped thrice. Jaylen Wright didn’t make it on 3rd-and-1 at the 16, leading to Hooker’s fourth down scramble. And then Wright got two yards from the three, and “no gain” from the one to end the sequence.

Was it fatigue? Coming into the year, I assumed the Vols would run many more plays than usual, and questions like, “Who is the fourth wide receiver?” would be relevant. And indeed, the Vols ran 952 plays, currently 13th most in college football among teams playing 13 games. That’s 73.2 plays per game for the offense. But the Vols didn’t necessarily go deep into their bench: not sure how much of an option that actually was on the offensive line, and the starting receivers were healthy all year.

However, the Vols ran 104 plays against Purdue, by far a season high. Number two on the list: Bowling Green, 88 plays. I’m gonna say we were slightly more fresh in the season opener than the season finale. So perhaps some of what we saw at the end of the game was the kind of offensive fatigue we’re used to seeing from our defense.

That side of the ball ends the year having faced 1,011 snaps (77.8 per game). It trails only Michigan State’s defense (1,025, also playing a single overtime period in 2021) among teams playing 13 games. By comparison, last year the defense faced 69.9 plays per game. The last time we went bowling in 2019, it was 66.8.

But say this for the defense: whatever fatigue they’re facing, they’ve gotten it done when it counted at the end of almost every game. In Tennessee’s one-possession games against Pittsburgh, Ole Miss, Kentucky, and Purdue, the Vol defense made stops at the end of the game to put the ball back in the offense’s hands to tie or win.

The offense came up short in those moments in the regular season, but did have the two big scores to tie it in the final minutes against Purdue, before the missed field goal and the goal line stop.

All that to say: perhaps the issue against Purdue in short yardage was more fatigue-based than we’re giving it credit for. The Vols need depth, obviously. VolQuest had a good point over the weekend about the difference in Jeff Brohm’s program in year five and ours in year one being, in large part, just simple depth.

The short-yardage failures stand out against Pittsburgh and Purdue at the end of the game. They stand out against Alabama and Georgia because the Vols went headfirst into better talent. They had no opportunity to even exist against Kentucky, a ridiculous notion. And the Vols didn’t face a third down of any kind until the Missouri game was out of hand.

The Vols also made short yardage work to their extreme advantage against South Carolina, converting four third-and-shorts on their opening drive, softening the floodgates.

Overall, I think Tennessee is better in short yardage than my brain gave them credit for while watching the Purdue game.

And I know the Vols just simply need more bodies, on both sides of the ball, as they continue to find themselves in games with this many snaps.

Tennessee played four one-possession games this year. They went 1-3 in them against teams that are currently 11-2, 10-2, 9-3, and 9-4. In the three losses, specific calls that should’ve/could’ve gone the other way stand out:

• Against Pittsburgh, a horrendous spot to leave the ball short after a third down run by Hendon Hooker with seven minutes to play and the Vols down 41-34. What should’ve been 1st-and-Goal at the 2 was instead 4th-and-1 at the 3. The Vols failed to convert on fourth down.
• Against Ole Miss, Matt Corral’s forward progress was ruled stopped on what looked like a scoop and score for Tennessee in the first half. In the fourth quarter, a completion on 4th-and-24 with 54 seconds left was ruled short of the marker.
• Today in overtime, Jaylen Wright was ruled stopped on forward progress before he stretched the ball into the end zone on 4th-and-Goal, which he did before the whistle blew.

Josh Heupel’s first season ends at 7-6; “Three bad calls from 10-3!” is an easy narrative. The truth is, the meat and potatoes of how Tennessee has grown this season are very much already in the pot, regardless of today’s aftertaste. It’s also true that Tennessee had additional chances to win those first two games, throwing an interception against Pittsburgh and just missing a touchdown pass from Joe Milton against Ole Miss. In that department, today was actually some form of progress: Tennessee’s offense, which failed to make the plays at the end of those two games and Kentucky (which the defense sealed), scored a pair of touchdowns in the final five minutes (plus one in overtime, some will add) to tie the game twice. The Vols had good calls in most of those situations tonight.

The Vols also had 15 penalties for 128 yards. Purdue had 5 for 61. There’s, uh, an imbalance there, one you might’ve particularly noticed in the pass interference department.

We played this game 11 seasons ago, an inspiring year one from Derek Dooley meeting a cruel end in Nashville. That one felt worse to me in the moment; I was at that game, and watched this one from my living room, so that might be part of it. We did get an NCAA rule change out of it; maybe we’ll get one here on forward progress or, even better, the exaggeration of injury.

Josh Heupel said the refs came up to him tonight and said they think there needs to be a rule change with the fake injuries.

— Ben McKee (@benmckee14) December 31, 2021

You want to say, “Hey, we need to be better than to get beat by bad calls against Pitt, Ole Miss, and Purdue.” But again, those teams all won between 9-11 games this year, 12 if Pitt wins tonight. In the long run, the Vols can make progress by bringing in more talent than those programs, for sure.

But for now, Tennessee ends a promising 2021 campaign with an old reminder I don’t think this coaching staff actually needs: the best way to win close games is not to play them. Next time around in year two, can the Vols be good enough to not get beat by bad calls against teams not named Alabama or Georgia?

Tonight was a good reminder that the margins are still thin. Going forward, can the Vols continue to improve fast enough to widen them against most of their schedule?

There will never be guarantees. Tennessee needs help in the secondary: Alontae Taylor is already gone, and Theo Jackson will join him, leaving much of tonight’s group that gave up 11.1 yards per pass to Purdue (plus three picks). Tennessee needs to figure out what it’s doing in the short yardage run game, which struggled to find success. Tennessee needs to keep recruiting.

But the Vols made a ton of forward progress this year. If that continues, we’ll get beat by “forward progress” less often.

Go Vols.