In each of the last two SEC expansions, Tennessee had no reason to worry. Arkansas and South Carolina weren’t perceived as serious threats in 1992, nor Missouri in 2012. Of course, those teams went 3-0 against the Vols in their SEC debuts, so what do we know.
But now, Texas and Oklahoma and Tennessee’s continual slide makes for a different conversation for us. I’m not sure any of us know how to define success for Tennessee in a 16-team SEC. But perhaps it’s helpful to look back at how teams on Tennessee’s level have defined success in the last expansion.
The top tier has won enough, and recently, to not be concerned with newcomers just yet. The Vols used to be in this group. If the success conversation begins with Atlanta, this group generally finds themselves in the thick of that conversation more often than not.
Here’s a rough estimate of not only division titles, but how many times each team had a realistic chance to get to Atlanta:
Getting to Atlanta 2012-2020
Alabama Tier
- Alabama: Six SEC West titles, nine total chances to win (100%)
Traditional Powers, Modern Success
- Auburn: Two SEC West titles, five total chances to win (55.6%)
- Florida: Three SEC East titles, six total chances to win (66.7%)
- Georgia: Four SEC East titles, six total chances to win (66.7%)
- LSU: One SEC West title, four total chances to win (44.4%)
Three of these teams also carry recent-enough history from before expansion to buoy them: Florida won it all in 2006 & 2008, Auburn in 2010, and LSU played for it in 2011. And on the tail end, some disappointing finishes for Les Miles got wiped away by Ed Orgeron and Joe Burrow in 2019.
What about the next group down? Among these eight schools, only Missouri actually won a division title post-expansion. Each of them had at least one real chance to get there. And we’ve added a note on how often they changed head coaches as another barometer of success:
The Middle Tier
- Arkansas: One chance to win (2015), Four head coaches
- Kentucky: One chance to win (2018), Two head coaches
- Ole Miss: Two chances to win (2014-15), Three head coaches
- Mississippi State: One chance to win (2014), Three head coaches
- Missouri: Two SEC East titles (2013-14), two total chances to win, Three head coaches
- South Carolina: Three chances to win (2013-14, 2017), Three head coaches
- Tennessee: Two chances to win (2015-16), Four head coaches
- Texas A&M: Three chances to win (2013-14, 2020), Two head coaches
Vanderbilt Tier
- Vanderbilt: Zero chances to win, Three head coaches
Here’s the question: how many of these programs felt like success was attainable in the last decade?
The schools that really only made one pass at Atlanta all have different bonuses. Arkansas was nationally elite the year before expansion before Bobby Petrino’s motorcycle cost them. Mississippi State didn’t just almost get to Atlanta, they spent four weeks at #1 in 2014 and earned a New Year’s Six invite. And Kentucky has become the most stable non-Alabama job in the SEC during this run, with Stoops working a slow burn to a winner-take-all game with Georgia in 2018.
Ole Miss had two chances to win with Hugh Freeze, then lost him to scandal. Tennessee was any number of plays away from winning the SEC East had they beaten Florida in Gainesville in 2015, and gave away a 2-0 lead on Florida and Georgia in 2016. They are more isolated moments of almost-success.
South Carolina came into expansion with a division title in 2010 and plenty of momentum. The Gamecocks had every opportunity to get back to Atlanta in 2012 and 2013, and did catch what would’ve been a winner-take-all game with Georgia in 2017 considering they beat Florida the following week. But overall their success is certainly tilted toward the front half of the last decade, thus Muschamp out and Beamer in. Missouri is the hardest one to place, I think: a pair of division titles, then a 1-7 finish in league play the following year with Pinkel’s retirement. Barry Odom had some close losses in a 4-4 finish in 2018, but they never really threatened, thus new coach last year.
And then there’s Texas A&M, who threatened with Johnny Football then didn’t again after the month of September. They’re the clearest-cut example of the road simply going through Alabama now: an incredible year last season, but effectively over in week two when the Tide won 52-24.
Of this group, I think certainly A&M thinks they can get to Atlanta. Tennessee has the historical expectation. South Carolina proved they could flirt with it regularly under Spurrier. I would imagine Missouri believes it can still be done since they did it twice. And Lane Kiffin talks often about the ceiling that drew him to Oxford.
As for the rest? Is the expectation at Arkansas, Kentucky, and Mississippi State to get to Atlanta at least once? Is that healthy or reasonable?
I’m comforted by the fact that, other than Vanderbilt, everybody got close at least once in the last expansion, and 10 of the league’s 14 teams have multiple seasons that are legitimate what-ifs in that same span.
You can’t what-if it forever, of course. But what is success going to be in a 16-team league? Atlanta? A spot in a 12-team playoff?
The Vols, of course, haven’t sniffed a hypothetical 12-team playoff since 2007, and probably wouldn’t have made that field since 2003. But the rest of that group? Arkansas would’ve been in in 2011, and in expansion times:
Mid-Tier SEC Teams in a Hypothetical 12-Team Playoff 2012-20 (BCS/CFP data)
- 2012: South Carolina, Texas A&M
- 2013: Missouri, South Carolina
- 2014: Ole Miss, Mississippi State
- 2020: Texas A&M
Kentucky would’ve just missed in 2018. The only teams that really haven’t come close during that span are Arkansas, Vanderbilt, and of course…Tennessee.
Is there something to mid-tier teams not having as much success since 2014 or so? I’m not sure. And the Vols have plenty of room to grow their own definition of success under Josh Heupel.
But it’s valuable – in Fayetteville, Lexington, Columbia, Starkville, Oxford, and Knoxville – to believe your team, yes your team, can have a shot. And that conversation has to stay alive into November every now and then.
How likely are these programs to find success in this brave new world? I’m not sure. But I do find it somewhat comforting that all of them came close at least once, and most more often than that, in the last expansion.
As with most things in life, I think the answer is…it depends? Are we going to the pod structure that everybody seems to believe will happen? Are we moving to 9 conference games? Do they get creative with Atlanta and how teams qualify? Is Atlanta even the right benchmark now? You could go 9-3 (6-3), be behind 3 other teams (9-0, 8-1, 7-2), but find yourself in the thick of the playoff race. Between NIL, the 12-team playoff, and the first (of several?) 16-team conference, there’s been so many variable introduced that it’s really hard to anticipate how it will… Read more »
Agreed – I wonder if there’s a version of success equivalent to like 2013 South Carolina, who didn’t make Atlanta but was still wildly successful by their standards. They’d make a 12-team playoff, but now if you finish like 15th aren’t you more disappointed because you didn’t finish 12th? Is there a nine wins and the Outback Bowl kind of year out there still for that middle tier?