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Warm-ups: Consensus on the worst candy ever, and a Surprising Solution to the Mortgage Crisis.
Plus 20 minutes of bonus coverage.
Last week our community win total moved to 10.72 regular season wins. Here’s the week-by-week total:
This week’s win total machine is at the bottom of this post; I wouldn’t be shocked to see that number come down just a hair, as last week’s total includes that Monday morning feeling of having just beaten Alabama. But no matter how you look at it…we’ve come a long way in a hurry.
On October 10, 2020, Tennessee led #3 Georgia 21-17 at halftime. After two turnovers, it was still within reach at 23-21 Georgia with 35 seconds left in the third quarter. The Dawgs found the end zone on 3rd-and-7 from the 21, the Vols went three-and-out, and Georgia added two more scores from there for a 44-21 win.
The Vols were close for a half, then had a turnover-induced setback to leave us with a similar end result to our previous three encounters with Georgia. Still, forward progress seemed available and attainable. The Vols welcomed Kentucky to Neyland Stadium the following Saturday.
In pre-covid days, October 17 was our bye week, so I was at my sister-in-law’s wedding. I wasn’t there in person to witness what happened or describe its atmosphere. The radio told me the Vols turned it over on four consecutive possessions, two of them pick sixes. Even so, it was only 17-7 at halftime.
To open the third quarter, the Vols had 3rd-and-2 at their own 29. Eric Gray got a yard, and Tennessee punted. And a Kentucky offense that had been completely bottled up in the first half came to life, and took it from Tennessee. 75 yards in 11 plays, never facing more than 3rd-and-1, and a three-possession lead. The Vols punted once more. Kentucky’s punter never saw the field again.
The 34-7 victory for the Wildcats remains Tennessee’s worst performance relative to the spread in 40+ years, favored by 6.5 and losing by 27. It wasn’t the last straw for the previous administration. But in hindsight, the Vols got no closer to forward progress than at halftime of the Georgia game the week before. And six quarters later, the bottom fell out.
That was two years ago. That was the last time Kentucky came to Neyland Stadium.
And there may be no better point from which to measure the growth of this program than what has transpired since then.
When this season is over, there will be plenty of time for the big picture of Tennessee Football. “So fast” will still be a perfect description for how this program went from total uncertainty to total jubilation in around 20 months.
But in an even shorter timetable, the Vols took the things they were worst at on both sides of the ball, and made them genuine strengths just one year later. Improvements not small, but significant. And they did so without a significant turnover in the players involved.
These would be remarkable accomplishments even if the Vols weren’t undefeated and ranked third in the nation. But that’s the thing: they’re a big part of why the team is as good as they are right now. Instead of, “If we can just be a little bit better…”, the Vols got good for real in two critical areas.
Last year Tennessee quarterbacks were sacked on 10.88% of their pass attempts vs FBS competition. It was 123rd nationally, and the worst number of the post-Fulmer era.
| Opponent | Sacks | Pct. |
| Pittsburgh | 5 | 13.2% |
| Florida | 4 | 11.4% |
| Missouri | 1 | 5.0% |
| South Carolina | 6 | 20.7% |
| Ole Miss | 5 | 14.7% |
| Alabama | 3 | 9.7% |
| Kentucky | 5 | 20.0% |
| Georgia | 6 | 11.1% |
| Vanderbilt | 0 | 0.0% |
| Purdue | 2 | 4.5% |
Even in victory, you can see how defenses played feast or famine with Tennessee last season. South Carolina’s brief run in the second half was fueled by getting to Hendon Hooker, and Kentucky got two sacks on Tennessee’s final drive to keep the Vols out of the end zone, leaving the outcome in doubt.
Last year, power five defenses got the quarterback 4+ times in six games.
This year, they’ve yet to do it.
| Opponent | Sacks | Pct. |
| Pittsburgh | 3 | 6.7% |
| Florida | 3 | 9.7% |
| LSU | 0 | 0.0% |
| Alabama | 1 | 3.1% |
Now we’re talking.
Overall, the 2022 Vols allow a sack on 4.55% of their passing attempts, 42nd nationally. If it holds all year, that would be Tennessee’s lowest number since the 2012-2013 offensive lines that sent three players to the NFL Draft. One year after the worst performance in pass protection in the post-Fulmer era, the Vols are getting their best performance in pass protection in ten years.
The work Darnell Wright did on Will Anderson was spectacular, erasing an assumption that he would simply get there eventually. And Tennessee’s running backs are noticeably better here too, doing a beautiful job helping Hooker get a clean pocket to turn it loose. Keeping him clean is an enormous part of his Heisman conversation. And Hooker getting 3+ yards per carry continues to be the most reliable stat for Tennessee’s ultimate success, with the Vols now 10-1 in his starts when he hits that number.
A huge shout out to the offensive line and Tennessee’s pass protection. And that’s not the only place the Vols made a huge turnaround.
We continue to revisit the, “How many stops do we need to win?” conversation, with Tennessee’s offense playing so well. One thing that fed into that narrative last season: when teams got into the red zone against the Vols, they scored almost every time. On 50 red zone visits, opponents scored 46 times in 2021. Two of the stops were against South Alabama, one was in garbage time. And one was a huge play, with Tennessee intercepting South Carolina’s trick play in the end zone, swiftly turning what could’ve been a 14-7 game into a 21-0 Vol lead.
And 36 of those 46 scores in the red zone last year were touchdowns, 72% overall. That ranked 119th nationally.
| Opponent | Red Zone | TDs |
| Pittsburgh | 7 | 5 |
| Florida | 5 | 4 |
| Missouri | 2 | 2 |
| South Carolina | 4 | 2 |
| Ole Miss | 4 | 3 |
| Alabama | 7 | 7 |
| Kentucky | 5 | 5 |
| Georgia | 4 | 3 |
| Vanderbilt | 2 | 2 |
| Purdue | 6 | 2 |
After making just four total red zone stops last year, this season the Vols have turned teams away seven times already. And, amazingly, teams are scoring touchdowns in the red zone against the Vols less than 50% of the time.
| Opponent | Red Zone | TDs |
| Pittsburgh | 5 | 1 |
| Florida | 6 | 4 |
| LSU | 4 | 2 |
| Alabama | 6 | 4 |
The defense was relentless against Pittsburgh in this department, a crucial factor in an overtime win. And in their three huge SEC contests, the defense turned Florida, LSU, and Alabama away twice each Saturday.
The Vols are one of just 17 teams to allow points in the red zone on less than 75% of an opponent’s trips, and one of just 23 teams to allow touchdowns in the red zone on less than 50%. After allowing a touchdown 72% of the time last season, this year it’s at 46%, 19th nationally.
In short: Tennessee’s pass protection is helping this offense go from great to elite. And with an elite offense, a great red zone defense allows the entire team play at a championship level.
Okay.
Tennessee’s path to Atlanta goes straight through Athens. While our schedule should lighten in the final three weeks, Georgia’s does get a little slippery. The Dawgs are off this week, then the Cocktail Party, then us. Should the Vols falter between the hedges, Georgia will still have a trip to Starkville and Lexington remaining. If both UT and UGA get to November 5 undefeated, we would need Georgia to lose both those road games to get back to Atlanta. Seems unlikely; we should just beat them, right?
So in the win total machine, we’re always looking at the overall picture, which this week should project 11-1 as Tennessee’s most likely outcome. But after beating Alabama (where fans gave us a 38.3% chance going in), how will our view of Georgia change? Last week, fans gave Tennessee a 29% chance of victory in Athens. I predict that number is going up.
Before then, the Vols will have to deal with Kentucky in Knoxville, another ranked vs ranked game with the Cats off this week. There will be plenty of time to speak of this next week…but consider the distance between the last time we played these guys in Neyland and right now.
The Vols, of course, could have other paths to the playoffs. A narrow loss at Georgia and an 11-1 finish would give the Vols a tough-to-beat resume among one-loss teams. And if Tennessee arrives in Atlanta undefeated, you’d need something really strange to keep the Vols out of the playoffs from that point.
The most dangerous of the really stranges: multiple undefeated teams from conferences outside the Big Ten. Right now, your top four will become a top two once the dust clears between the Vols and Dawgs, and Ohio State and Michigan. Alabama controls its own destiny to face the East winner.
Here’s the most complicated scenario: Georgia beats the Vols, then loses to Alabama in Atlanta. In our non-division future, that’s essentially a three-way tie. So what happens on Selection Sunday if you’ve got 12-1 Alabama, 12-1 Georgia, and 11-1 Tennessee? The winner of Ohio State and Michigan would certainly get in, and I think that would make a tidy field of four. But things would get murky in a hurry if you also had an undefeated Clemson, or TCU, or UCLA.
As long as Tennessee is undefeated, we don’t have to worry about any of that. We’re pretty safe along those lines this week. But along the way, if those other undefeated teams were to falter? That helps us. So too do things like Kentucky beating Mississippi State last week, and South Carolina continuing to win. All that continues to help our own resume should we need it as a fall back.
May I present to you:
One undefeated will fall in Death Valley; Clemson would be the preference, right? In Baton Rouge, LSU can continue to bolster Tennessee’s resume…unless you want the version of events where we get Kiffin and Ole Miss in Atlanta. Oregon over UCLA and Kansas State over TCU are clear-cut outcomes that would benefit Tennessee.
When you think you can win every game, all of this is secondary. But especially in a week of welcoming our FCS friends, if you want some good insurance? Those would be good outcomes.
Enjoy your week.
Man, am I happy to see Tennessee-Martin at the end of this week.
This baker’s dozen is, as you’d expect, as good as it gets. Remember that graphic they always run about, “No Top 10 wins since…”? We skipped that one entirely and went straight to this one, even though the difference was only one year from 2006 Georgia to 2005 LSU. Your mileage may vary on your favorites, and we need the rest of this season for full context. But put last night in the conversation for anything you consider to be our biggest win.
The 1991 team played a record seven ranked vs ranked games. All the other comparisons right now, on this and multiple levels, are 1998 and 2001. The Vols will get at least two more of those opportunities with #19 Kentucky off this week, and the Vols and Georgia ranked so high. If those two teams stay at #1 and #3, it will be the highest ranked game Tennessee has played in outside of the 1998 BCS title game.
Hello, Josh Heupel. Hendon Hooker’s yards per attempt in these games: 15.8 vs Kentucky, 12.5 vs Florida, 12.8 vs Alabama. Mercy.
Whatever your question, tonight the answer is yes.
Are we back? Can we win it all? Is that the best win since ___________? Are these actual questions? Is this really happening?
Can Hendon Hooker win the Heisman? Can Jalin Hyatt? Didn’t we lose like 338 players to the portal and not know who our head coach would be for an entire month? Was that really just 20 months ago?
Did we miss an extra point and fumble away a touchdown and it just didn’t matter? Against Alabama?
Is this really happening?
Yes. Yes. Yes.
Tonight in Neyland Stadium, the past, the present, and the future collided, and they made the prettiest orange. It’s tonight, not today, because that thing lasted three hours and fifty-five minutes and one hundred and one points.
It lasted fifteen years, but only once you realized we could actually do it. And that took one drive for each team. Any “maybe we’re not quite ready for Bama yet”s were gone after that. If the Florida streak was the Red Sox, this one was the Cubs: constant futility, little hope, but we’re trying to have a good time anyway.
But tonight, this became the sort of game where you knew, even if the Vols lost it, Tennessee had made its case. The Vols belonged on the national stage, with Bama and thus with anyone. The kind of case where you feel like you can still make the playoffs even if you don’t win.
But we might as well win.
You want more?
Also, remember Cedric Tillman? Do you think Kentucky and Georgia will?
Did Jalin Hyatt really have six catches for 207 yards and five touchdowns? Is that in the conversation for the best game we’ve ever seen a UT wide receiver play, including that time Peerless Price had four for 199 in the national championship?
Remember when Kelley Washington had like 18723104 catches for 238472104720148 yards against LSU and they just kept going to him because it just kept working? Who was the coach of that LSU team, whatever happened to that guy?
That’s right, that’s a 2001 LSU joke! We can even do that now!
Because now, the Vols are at the adult table. And when you think your team can beat anybody? You stop worrying about how long it’s been and start thinking about when we get to play again.
There are thousands of words to be said about this game, thousands more about what’s ahead. It’s a good week to welcome an FCS team to the schedule! I’ve felt for a while Josh Heupel’s Tennessee teams make the sport feel more like basketball, where you’re always just a couple of threes away from things changing. But this felt more like tennis tonight, with every broken serve a gift.
Every stop from a defense was like gold. And we may move to a time where, realistically, the best measure to predict Tennessee’s ultimate success is how many stops they can get. They got three tonight, then added a fourth when Bama missed the field goal. Even against the vaunted Crimson Tide, four was enough. Meanwhile, the Vols only punted once (which worked out great!), but were stopped on fourth down twice and turned it over twice more. And still: both offenses were spectacular. Every Tennessee possession felt like possibility and every Alabama possession felt like a threat.
But in such an even game, the ultimate beauty tonight: all three phases were there in the final minute when Tennessee absolutely had to have it.
Alabama had 1st-and-10 at the 32 yard line with 34 seconds left. And the defense got three straight incompletions, leaving the Tide with a 50-yard field goal that didn’t go in.
Tennessee had 1st-and-10 from the 32 yard line with 15 seconds left. And the offense couldn’t have drawn it up any better: 18 yards to Ramel Keyton, 27 yards to Bru McCoy.
And then special teams, where Chase McGrath wrote his name into Tennessee legend. It wasn’t perfect. But it was good.
Nothing has been perfect for Tennessee in a long time. Some of you all reading this have been following along with us since the Lane Kiffin hiring. We’ve been together through lots of difficult days, interesting though they were. And you learn along the way that it’s not the winning that keeps you around, clearly. It’s the thing itself. The relationship between a team and its fans. The atmosphere. The everything.
This team has put itself in position to do everything. There are no comparisons, there’s no unhealthy connection to the past and no concern about the future. This team is writing its own story, and it’s an incredible one so far. There is so much left to do.
It won’t be perfect. But it can continue to be good.
And right now, Tennessee’s good is good enough to do anything.
Yes, even this.
Yes, even that.
Yes.
Go Vols.
Truly, truly a privilege to write about this game.
The Vols are good, playing at such a high level right now I find a new stat every week that makes me laugh. This week: Tennessee is only 81st nationally in 10+ yard plays from scrimmage, with 79 in five games. But the Vols are first in the nation with 14 plays of 40+ yards. It’s like we don’t have time for your pitiful 10-yard gains, we’re just erasing the whole field at once.
Last year the Vols finished with 23 40+ yard plays, seventh nationally. That’s 1.8 of these huge plays per game in 2021, 2.8 per game so far this year. And again: we’ve played three ranked teams.
I’m sure you would not be surprised that 23 40+ yard plays last season was UT’s highest total in at least the last 12 years. You may have forgotten or moved on enough to not know that this season’s 14 40+ yard plays are already more than the Vols had in all of 2011, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2017, 2019, and 2020. In that last one, the season before Josh Heupel took over, the Vols had three 40+ yard plays in ten games.
And three is the same number of 40+ yard plays Alabama’s defense has given up this season.
It’s not a guarantee of success: Iowa leads the nation in that department, yet to surrender a single 40+ yard play. But the Hawkeyes are 3-3. Georgia Tech and Temple have only given up one.
I think it’s more a question of game plan and game management: do you take a ton of shots against this defense? It worked for three quarters last year, when the Vols hit touchdowns of 57 and 70 yards, and had a 39-yard completion to set up a score on the opening drive. Is there any such thing as too aggressive for Tennessee?
One thing worth watching early in this game: last year Vol running backs combined for only 38 yards on 14 carries. We couldn’t run on them – not the first time we’ve seen that problem against Bama or Georgia – and we saw a bit of this earlier in the year at Pittsburgh. Ten of the Vols’ first dozen play calls in that one were pass plays, and UT ended that overtime affair with just 19 carries and 64 yards for running backs. There was an admission that running into the teeth of that defensive front just wasn’t going to be fruitful, and UT didn’t spend much time banging its head against that particular wall.
Flash forward to LSU, and six of Tennessee’s first eight play calls were runs. Tennessee’s backs had 36 carries for exactly 200 yards. All of that to say this: Tennessee’s offense is flexible. The Vols don’t have to hit home runs to beat you, especially when the defense is playing well.
Do the Vols have to hit home runs to beat Alabama? And if so, how many?
There’s that question. There’s the question of how many times Tennessee’s defense can get off the field.
But I’m a big believer in dancing with the one who brung you. And over two seasons now, no stat tells that story better than what Hendon Hooker does with his legs, and how often he’s brought down behind the line.
Last year, the thing Tennessee was absolutely worst at was pass protection: Vol QBs were sacked on 10.94% of their passing attempts vs FBS foes, 123rd in the nation. That was the highest percentage of sacks allowed in the post-Fulmer era, and I’m sure that number goes back farther than that.
This year, Tennessee has so far trimmed that number to 4.82%, 48th nationally. If it held there the entire season, it would be the best job UT’s pass protection did since the 2011-2013 group sent Ja’Wuan James, Zach Fulton, and Dallas Thomas to the NFL Draft. That number, of course, is also getting ready to face Will Anderson and friends.
Here’s the best way to explain it: since Hendon Hooker became the starting quarterback, the Vols are 9-1 when he averages 3+ yards per carry, 2-4 when he doesn’t.
Like anything else, it’s not a perfect number: Hooker was really good on the ground against Ole Miss last year (23 carries for 108 yards) in Tennessee’s narrow loss. But as you can see, that performance accounts for right at half of his rushing yards in the Vols’ five losses he started.
The Vols are good. Are they good enough to beat Alabama with or without Bryce Young, and without any weirdness? Can Tennessee continue to focus on themselves, play their game, and have it be good enough against the very best?
If so, I think these are the questions:
In our expected win total machine this week, fans are giving Tennessee a 38.3% chance of victory. We can talk about the past here, the number of times that number has been in the single digits. And we can talk about the future, where fans are now projecting a tantalizing 9.98 regular season wins for this team:
But I still like the present tense. It’s the biggest game for the Vols in at least 15 years and maybe 20+. There will be playoff talk no matter the outcome. But it still comes down to the sentence that has meant more than any other to Volunteers through all the years: can Tennessee beat Alabama?
Do that, and anything is possible.
Go Vols.
Alabama’s offense may not be operating at 2018-2020 levels, but it’s still plenty capable. The Tide are third nationally at 7.49 yards per play (the Vols are seventh at 7.21). And their tests – at Texas, at Arkansas, Texas A&M – are comparable to our own. While the Aggies got most of the usual Bama upset script – turnovers, missed field goals, etc. – it’s the Texas performance that offers the most hope for a defense. The Longhorns forced Alabama to punt on six consecutive drives, unheard of in the second half of Nick Saban’s administration.
Against those Tua Tagovailoa teams, there was real truth in saying that any drive that didn’t end in a touchdown was success for a defense. This time around, the window of opportunity is certainly wider. And the good news there: Tennessee’s defense continues to be far more opportunistic than last year.
Assumptions we might’ve developed about what kind of defense a Josh Heupel team will play? Those were clearly based too much on year one. In every way, this Tennessee defense is not only better, but downright great in crucial areas.
Teams have gone for it on fourth down 16 times against the Vols, the second-highest total in the nation among teams playing just five games. Add this odd fact into the mix: Alabama has only gone for it on fourth down eight times this year, and three of them came against Louisiana-Monroe. Will Bama operate with the same urgency in going for it against the Vols? Or will they assume their own defense will handle it (and, from their perspective, why wouldn’t they)?
In their biggest games, how many times did defenses get off the field without giving up a touchdown against the Crimson Tide?
| Opponent | TDs | FGs | TOs | Punts | 4th |
| Texas | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 0 |
| Arkansas | 7 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| Texas A&M | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| TOTAL | 12 | 6 | 5 | 13 | 1 |
This, of course, is around 50% Bryce Young and 50% Jalen Milroe. But given the success Texas’ defense had, it really balances out overall. There have been a decent number of opportunities to get off the field for teams who can take advantage, and the Vols have been not just better, but really good at getting off the field.
So, just for fun…
| Opponent | TDs | FGs | TOs | Punts | 4th |
| Pitt | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 1 |
| Florida | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| LSU | 4 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| TOTAL | 12 | 8 | 3 | 8 | 2 |
We expect Tennessee’s offense to have its moments. But Tennessee’s defense could find themselves making more of those moments than we might have thought possible just a few short weeks ago.
Indeed. Things ARE pretty good on Rocky Top these days, with the football team undefeated headed into the Third Saturday in October with the best chance to beat the Tide in years. After too many years of previewing this game with jokes and other coping mechanisms, Will and Joel lean all the way in to a Tennessee-Alabama week the way it was meant to be.
Bonus coverage features Will’s somewhat awkward Zakai Zeigler sighting at Boo at the Zoo and Joel’s definitely awkward eye contact with John Fulkerson.
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