Category Archives: Expected Win Totals

Use the form below to calculate your expected win total for the rest of the season.

The GRT Expected Win Total Machine

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My assessment

About those Vols: We’ve been getting glimpses of improvement for almost a month, but this week the thing grew legs and starting running amuck through the china shop. Everything is getting better, including both the offensive and defensive lines and overall team depth, the things that have plagued us most for far too many years. One thing we’ve learned through the entire ordeal is that progress isn’t usually linear, so there may still be bad days ahead, but the team is just so much more fun to watch now. You have to feel really good not just about the direction this thing is headed, but that it’s also now beginning to pick up speed and momentum.

Regarding the Vols’ past opponents: There wasn’t a lot of good data about Tennessee’s past opponents this week as many of them were off, one of them gave the game away on turnovers, and another one of them played Arkansas.

As for Tennessee’s future opponents, UAB and Vandy were both off, and Kentucky beat Missouri, making the Wildcats look better and the Tigers look worse.

With this week’s adjustments, I now have an expected win total of . . . 5.6, up from 4.7 last week. We’re rounding up to bowl eligibility now, y’all!

Here’s how I’ve tracked this season:

• Preseason: 6.55
• After Week 0: 6.6
• After Week 1: 2.87
• After Week 2: 2.37
• After Week 3: 3.65
• After Week 4: 2.9
• After Week 5: 3.25
• After Week 6: 3.85
• After Week 7: 4.4
• After Week 8: 4.7
• After Week 9: 5.6

Details: I now have Kentucky and Missouri at 60% and UAB and Vanderbilt at 70%.

Here’s a table with my expectations this week:

Tennessee Volunteers currently

Current record: 3-5 (2-3), 4th in the SEC East

The Vols’ future opponents

UAB Blazers

Current record: 6-1 (3-1), 2nd in C-USA West

Off this week.

Kentucky Wildcats

Current record: 4-4 (2-4), 5th in the SEC East

Looked good with a wide receiver running from the quarterback position. May be one-dimensional, but that dimension is pretty good.

Missouri Tigers

Current record: 5-3 (2-2), 3rd in the SEC East

Two weeks ago, these guys looked like they were leading the face for the SEC East. Last week, they lost to Vanderbilt, which was coming off a loss to UNLV. This week, they just couldn’t get rolling in the rain against Kentucky with Kelly Bryant one-dimensional due to what looked like a bad hamstring. Over the next couple of games against No. 10 Georgia and No. 7 Florida, they’ll either get their second wind or fall completely apart.

Vanderbilt Commodores

Current record: 2-5 (1-3), 5th in the SEC East

Off this week.

The Vols’ past opponents

Georgia State Panthers

Current record: 6-2 (3-1), 2nd in the Sun Belt East

That “2-10 Sun Belt team” from Week 1 is actually a “6-2 Sun Belt team.”

BYU Cougars

Current record: 3-4

The Cougars were off this week.

Chattanooga Mocs

Current record: 4-4 (3-1), 3rd in the Southern Conference

Florida Gators

Current record: 7-1 (4-1), 1st in the SEC East

Off this week in advance of next week’s big showdown with Georgia.

Georgia Bulldogs

Current record: 6-1 (3-1), 2nd in the SEC East

Off this week, and smelling Gator meat.

Mississippi State Bulldogs

Current record: 3-5 (1-4), 6th in the SEC West

It’s still difficult to conclude much about Mississippi State, as this weekend’s loss to Texas A&M came at the hands of several turnovers. They get a bit of a reprieve next week with a game against Arkansas.

Alabama Crimson Tide

Current record: 8-0 (5-0), 1st in the SEC West

No Tua, no problem. Alabama led this one 41-0 at halftime before coasting home in the second half. It was just Arkansas, though, so you know. Both No. 1 Alabama and No. 2 LSU are off next week, and then they’ll meet in Tuscaloosa the following week. That should be fun.

South Carolina Gamecocks

Current record: 3-5 (2-4), 5th in the SEC East

What about you? Where are your expectations for the Vols now?

Use the form below to calculate your expected win total for the rest of the season.

The GRT Expected Win Total Machine

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My assessment

Regarding the Vols’ past opponents: It’s a bit of a mixed bag, but most of the Vols’ prior opponents are looking better than we previously thought. Georgia State and Chattanooga are good for their classification (although we still should not have lost to the Panthers). Florida’s looking good. Georgia has looked a little vulnerable the last couple of weeks, but they’re still obviously good. BYU just had another good win, although, like the Vols, they’re kind of all over the board. Mississippi State, who knows?

As for the Vols themselves, we’ve sniffed some hints over the past couple of weeks that they’re actually improving at a pretty good pace after a slow start, and this past weekend’s game against the Alabama Crimson Tide turned those hints into actual probative evidence that could win an argument. They’re getting better. There are still open questions, namely how much better are they, and how much will that improvement ebb and flow?

As for Tennessee’s future opponents, South Carolina got beat this week by Florida but looked good losing (and beat Georgia last week), and Georgia beat Kentucky but looked bad winning. Missouri lost to Vanderbilt, which probably means only that Missouri can lose to a bad team and Vanderbilt can beat a good team. UAB still scares me as a sleeper.

With this week’s adjustments, I now have an expected win total of . . . 4.7. That’s up from last week, but not as much as I thought it would be. It’s hard to get toss-ups to add up to as many wins as you’d like. I’m basically back to my preseason expectations, except that Georgia State and BYU went the wrong way.

Here’s how I’ve tracked this season:

• Preseason: 6.55
• After Week 0: 6.6
• After Week 1: 2.87
• After Week 2: 2.37
• After Week 3: 3.65
• After Week 4: 2.9
• After Week 5: 3.25
• After Week 6: 3.85
• After Week 7: 4.4
• After Week 8: 4.7

Details: I now have South Carolina and Missouri both at 45% and Kentucky, Vanderbilt, and UAB at 60%.

Here’s a table with my expectations this week:

Tennessee Volunteers currently

Current record: 2-5 (1-2), 5th in the SEC East

The Vols’ past opponents

Georgia State Panthers

Current record: 5-2 (2-1), 2nd in the Sun Belt East

As I said last week, 2019 Georgia State isn’t the 2-10 Sun Belt team it was from 2018. They’re now 5-2.

BYU Cougars

Current record: 3-4 (0-0)

The Cougars notched another good win this weekend by upsetting No. 14 Boise State. You’ll recall that earlier in the season, they beat a then-ranked USC team. Sure, they’ve also lost to Toledo and South Florida, but they’ve shown they can beat decent-to-good teams, and doing so makes the Vols’ loss to them earlier this season look a little less bad.

Chattanooga Mocs

Current record: 4-3 (3-0), 1st in the Southern Conference

Chattanooga is still an FCS team, but they’re first in their conference, so that’s something.

Florida Gators

Current record: 7-1 (4-1), 1st in the SEC East

I don’t know about you, but watching much of this weekend’s Florida-South Carolina game made me feel better about the loss to the Gators and worse about the prospects against the Gamecocks this week. (Although the Vols made up for that latter feeling with their later effort against the Tide.)

Georgia Bulldogs

Current record: 6-1 (3-1), 2nd in the SEC East

This weekend’s Georgia-Kentucky game was tied 0-0 at the half, and the Bulldogs really didn’t look very good all game. It’s hard to tell how much that was them and how much was Kentucky, so I’m kind of splitting the difference and feeling worse about the loss to Georgia and also slightly more wary about the upcoming game against Kentucky.

Mississippi State Bulldogs

Current record: 3-4 (1-3), 6th in the SEC West

There’s no shame in losing 36-13 to the No. 2 team in the country, so I’m deferring judgment on the Bulldogs for now.

Alabama Crimson Tide

Current record: 7-0 (4-0), 1st in the SEC West

The Tennessee-Alabama game was closer than everyone expected it to be, but again, it’s difficult to tell how much of that is on Alabama and how much credit to give an improving Vols squad. I think it’s safe to say that Alabama isn’t the same team without Tua, though.

The Vols’ future opponents

South Carolina Gamecocks

Current record: 3-4 (2-3), 4th in the SEC East

See above. The Gamecocks are much better than their record suggests. North Carolina took them (and many others) by surprise, then they played a full-strength Alabama team tough and beat No. 3 Georgia. Plus, that Florida game was closer than the score makes it look. They’re going to be tough, even for an improving Vols team.

UAB Blazers

Current record: 6-1 (3-1), 2nd in C-USA West

I sounded the alarm on the UAB Blazers last week, and I’m still ringing the bell this week. We’re at serious risk of overlooking these guys.

Kentucky Wildcats

Current record: 3-4 (1-4), 7th in the SEC East

See above. They played Georgia tough for most of the game. Plus, they’re going to get a much-needed rest the week before they take on the Vols.

Missouri Tigers

Current record: 5-2 (2-1), 3rd in the SEC East

Wait, what? Vanderbilt lost to UNLV last week and beat a ranked and rolling Missouri team this week? The Tigers are an enigma. You could conclude that they’re good against teams without a decent defense, but they did also beat South Carolina, so you know. Whatever the case, the new data this week suggests a better opportunity for the Vols than we thought last week.

Vanderbilt Commodores

Current record: 2-5 (1-3), 5th in the SEC East

See above. Even a reeling Vandy can get you if you don’t take them seriously.

What about you? Where are your expectations for the Vols now?

Use the form below to calculate your expected win total for the rest of the season.

The GRT Expected Win Total Machine

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My assessment

My nutshell assessment of the Vols after the Mississippi State game is that the team is indeed improving, and I think they’re doing it in all of the right places and all of the right ways. With Maurer going out early and Guarantano taking over against the Bulldogs, it does seem to me that the problems aren’t necessarily personnel but, as some of us suspected, just a matter of navigating the learning curve of two new coordinators and a bunch of new players at key positions. I still think that elite teams are going to make the Vols look worse than they really are, but I am feeling much more comfortable against most the second-tier of the SEC East.

Meanwhile, Missouri’s looking good but still has Florida and Georgia looming, and South Carolina looks dangerous. But Kentucky and Vanderbilt look more and more beatable. UAB looks like maybe they deserve to be in the same group as the Wildcats and the Commodores, though, rather than set apart in the feel-good range.

With this week’s adjustments, I now have an expected win total of . . . 4.4, up, but by only slightly more than half a game from last week.

• Preseason: 6.55
• After Week 0: 6.6
• After Week 1: 2.87
• After Week 2: 2.37
• After Week 3: 3.65
• After Week 4: 2.9
• After Week 5: 3.25
• After Week 6: 3.85
• After Week 7: 4.4

Details: Alabama remains at 5%. Missouri moves from 25% to 35%, and South Carolina joins them there. Kentucky, Vanderbilt, and UAB all move to 55%, Kentucky and Vanderbilt from 50% and UAB from 75%.

Here’s a table with my expectations this week:

Tennessee Volunteers currently

Current record: 2-4 (1-2), 5th in the SEC East

The Vols’ past opponents

Georgia State Panthers

Current record: 4-2 (2-1), 2nd in the Sun Belt East

It’s not accurate to say that the Vols lost to a good team when they lost to Georgia State. But it’s also no longer accurate to say that the Vols lost to a 2-10 Sun Belt team. The Panthers are now 4-2 and 2nd in the Sun Belt East, and they’re better this year than they were last year. They still shouldn’t have beaten the Vols in Neyland Stadium, but maybe they’re actually a little better than we thought.

BYU Cougars

Current record: 2-4 (0-0)

The Cougars led 23-14 heading into the fourth quarter and lost 27-23 to South Florida. They’ve now lost their last three games, the last two of them to unranked teams.

Chattanooga Mocs

Current record: 3-3 (2-0), 2nd in the Southern Conference

Off this week.

Florida Gators

Current record: 6-1 (3-1), 1st in the SEC East

Played two Top 10 teams in the last two weeks. Beat one at home, lost to the other on the road. LSU looks like the best of the three, but Florida’s still a Top 10 team in my book.

Georgia Bulldogs

Current record: 5-1 (2-1), 3rd in the SEC East

I didn’t see anything but the end of regulation and the two overtimes in this one, but I will say that Georgia had their butts saved at least a couple of times before finally tempting fate a time too many. Credit to the Gamecocks, and this one has to make Vols fans feel worse both about the loss to Georgia and the upcoming game against South Carolina, but it also has a sort of outlier feel to it.

Mississippi State Bulldogs

Current record: 3-3 (1-2), 5th in the SEC West

The Vols’ future opponents

Alabama Crimson Tide

Current record: 6-0 (3-0), 1st in the SEC West

Tua’s touchdown-to-interception ratio this season is 27:1. My takeaway from that is that we can get an interception next week as long as we give up 27 touchdowns first.

South Carolina Gamecocks

Current record: 3-3 (2-2), 4th in the SEC East

Just beat the No. 3 team in the nation. Currently fourth in the SEC East with two conference losses. On their third quarterback this season already. Okay, then.

UAB Blazers

Current record: 5-1 (2-1), 3rd in C-USA West

I’m sounding the alarm on the UAB Blazers, although nobody’s going to pay any attention. Yes, that’s a nobody schedule, but it’s also a lot of Ws.

Kentucky Wildcats

Current record: 3-3 (1-3), 6th in the SEC East

Some will find it funny that the Arkansas Razorbacks just got beat by a Kentucky team starting a wide receiver at quarterback. For some reason, I don’t think that’s funny at all. Not one single bit.

Missouri Tigers

Current record: 5-1 (2-0), 1st in the SEC East

Don’t look now, but the Missouri Tigers are first in the SEC East. Those back-to-back games against Georgia and Florida in mid-November loom.

Vanderbilt Commodores

Current record: 1-5 (0-3), 7th in the SEC East

Oh, my. Halfway through the season and one win, against Northern Illinois. (No, I wouldn’t have written this had the Vols lost to Mississippi State. Why do you ask?)

What about you? Where are your expectations for the Vols now?

Use the form below to calculate your expected win total for the rest of the season.

The GRT Expected Win Total Machine

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My assessment

The Vols appear to have improved despite failing to cover a huge spread against the Bulldogs at home. For that reason, I’m giving them a slight bump.

Meanwhile, Missouri’s looking better, Vanderbilt’s looking worse, and Mississippi State, Alabama, South Carolina, and Kentucky were all resting comfortably.

With this week’s adjustments, I now have an expected win total of . . . 3.85. Continuing to inch up.

• Preseason: 6.55
• After Week 0: 6.6
• After Week 1: 2.87
• After Week 2: 2.37
• After Week 3: 3.65
• After Week 4: 2.9
• After Week 5: 3.25
• After Week 6: 3.85

Details: Alabama remains at 5% and Missouri stays at 25%. South Carolina and Mississippi State both move to 40%, Kentucky and Vanderbilt move to 50%, and UAB moves to 75%.

Here’s a table with my expectations this week:

Tennessee Volunteers currently

Current record: 1-4 (0-2), 5th in the SEC East

The Vols’ past opponents

Georgia State Panthers

Current record: 3-2 (1-1), 2nd in the Sun Belt East

The Panthers had 722 yards of offense! It’s not that this loss wasn’t bad, but maybe not quite so horrendous as maybe we thought? Maybe?

BYU Cougars

Current record: 2-3 (0-0)

Off this week.

Chattanooga Mocs

Current record: 3-3 (2-0), 2nd in the Southern Conference

Florida Gators

Current record: 6-0 (3-0), 1st in the SEC East

Raise your hand if you hate the Gators! Will and I disagree a bit about how good Auburn is, but the Gators are looking good, so I’m giving the Vols a bit of a bump because this loss is looking (but not feeling) better.

Georgia Bulldogs

Current record: 5-0 (2-0), 2nd in the SEC East

Again, my thoughts on this one are here.

The Vols’ future opponents

The Bulldogs were also off this week.

Mississippi State Bulldogs

Current record: 3-2 (1-1), 5th in the SEC West

The Bulldogs were off last week, so getting stomped by Auburn the prior week is the last thing we have to go on. If this game moves on my list, it’s because of the Vols.

Alabama Crimson Tide

Current record: 5-0 (2-0), 1st in the SEC West

Alabama was also off.

South Carolina Gamecocks

Current record: 2-3 (1-2), 4th in the SEC East

Did anybody play this week besides us?

UAB Blazers

Current record: 4-1 (1-1), 4th in C-USA West

Rice has lost 17 of its last 18 games, so . . . .

Kentucky Wildcats

Current record: 2-3 (0-3), 6th in the SEC East

Off.

Missouri Tigers

Current record: 4-1 (1-0), 3rd in the SEC East

Missouri looking really good. QB Kelly Bryant left with an injury, but the reports are that he’s going to be ready to roll again this week. Linebacker Cale Garrett, who’s scored three defensive touchdowns this year alone, is out indefinitely, though.

Vanderbilt Commodores

Current record: 1-4 (0-3), 6th in the SEC East

Commodores not looking good. They gave up 413 rushing yards to Ole Miss in this game.

What about you? Where are your expectations for the Vols now?

Use the form below to calculate your expected win total for the rest of the season.

The GRT Expected Win Total Machine

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My assessment

The Vols were off this week, and the results from prior opponents didn’t really have much impact one way or the other. But results from future opponents did rearrange things a bit and improve expectations every so slightly.

With this week’s adjustments, I now have an expected win total of . . . 3.25, up a teensy bit from last week.

• Preseason: 6.55
• After Week 0: 6.6
• After Week 1: 2.87
• After Week 2: 2.37
• After Week 3: 3.65
• After Week 4: 2.9
• After Week 5: 3.25

Details: Alabama and Georgia both remain at 5%. After that, I have three groups: Missouri and South Carolina are at 25%, Mississippi State and Kentucky are at 35%, and Vanderbilt and UAB are at 50%.

Here’s a table with my expectations this week:

Tennessee Volunteers currently

Current record: 1-3 (0-1), 4th in the SEC East

The Vols’ past opponents

Georgia State Panthers

Current record: 2-2 (0-1), 2nd in the Sun Belt East

Like the Vols, the Panthers were off this week.

BYU Cougars

Current record: 2-3 (0-0)

Toledo returned an interception 40 yards to the 2-yard line in the last minute of the game to get the go-ahead touchdown.

Chattanooga Mocs

Current record: 2-3 (1-0), 3rd in the Southern Conference

Florida Gators

Current record: 5-0 (2-0), 1st in the SEC East

Nothing to see here.

The Vols’ future opponents

Georgia Bulldogs

Current record: 4-0 (1-0), 2nd in the SEC East

The Bulldogs were also off this week.

Mississippi State Bulldogs

Current record: 3-2 (1-1), 4th in the SEC West

These Bulldogs, however, were not off. Well, actually, they were “off,” but in a different sense of the word, meaning they got absolutely clobbered by the Auburn Tigers. Even those 23 points are misleading.

Alabama Crimson Tide

Current record: 5-0 (2-0), 1st in the SEC West

The Tide defense gave up 476 yards, and yet the team still won by 28 points. Sigh.

South Carolina Gamecocks

Current record: 2-3 (1-2), 4th in the SEC East

I think the take on South Carolina so far is exactly what we said in our magazine prior to the season: They are actually good, but their brutal schedule obscures it. They basically throttled Kentucky’s offense.

UAB Blazers

Current record: 3-1 (0-1), 4th in C-USA West

Kentucky Wildcats

Current record: 2-3 (0-3), 7th in the SEC East

With three losses in a row now (and only two wins — against Toledo and Eastern Michigan), these guys are looking like they really miss Benny Snell and Josh Allen, not to mention injured quarterback Terry Wilson. The offense could do nothing against the Gamecocks. They still look better than the current version of the Vols, though.

Missouri Tigers

Current record: 3-1 (1-0), 2nd in the SEC East

Off this week.

Vanderbilt Commodores

Current record: 1-3 (0-2), 6th in the SEC East

Not much to be said about that.

What about you? Where are your expectations for the Vols now?

Use the form below to calculate your expected win total for the rest of the season.

The GRT Expected Win Total Machine

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My assessment

Even a day later, I’m still feeling like the Vols really weren’t even competitive against the Gators and that the evidence is insufficient at this time to support a belief that it’s going to get better any time soon. Ugh.

Meanwhile, Mississippi State and Missouri are looking better and better, while the other remaining opponents all look good enough to lose to. Bleck.

With this week’s adjustments, I now have an expected win total of . . . 2.9, which actually feels a bit high. I guess all of those 20 and 30 percents add up to a win I’m not exactly expecting. Hurl.

• Preseason: 6.55
• After Week 0: 6.6
• After Week 1: 2.87
• After Week 2: 2.37
• After Week 3: 3.65
• After Week 4: 2.9

Details: I have Alabama and Georgia both at 5%, Mississippi State and Missouri at 20%, South Carolina, Kentucky, and Vanderbilt at 30%, and UAB as a tossup. Ugh.

Here’s a table with my expectations this week:

Tennessee Volunteers currently

Current record: 1-3 (0-1), 4th in the SEC East

The Vols’ past opponents

Georgia State Panthers

Current record: 2-2 (0-1), 5th in the Sun Belt East

BYU Cougars

Current record: 2-2 (0-0)

Chattanooga Mocs

Current record: 1-3 (0-0), 4th in the Southern Conference

Florida Gators

Current record: 4-0 (2-0), 1st in the SEC East

The Vols’ future opponents

Georgia Bulldogs

Current record: 4-0 (1-0), 2nd in the SEC East

Tough game against Notre Dame, but these guys pulled it out and looked good doing it against the Fighting Irish. They’re going to be a real problem for the Vols.

Mississippi State Bulldogs

Current record: 3-1 (1-0), 1st in the SEC West

The Bulldogs looked good against Kentucky and made that loss to Kansas State look like a fluke. Kylin Hill is currently the SEC’s leading rusher. Ugh, this game’s looking tougher, even before you account for the Vols’ problems.

Alabama Crimson Tide

Current record: 4-0 (1-0), 1st in the SEC West

Machines.

South Carolina Gamecocks

Current record: 1-3 (0-2), 5th in the SEC East

Looked good against Alabama, but not so good against Missouri this week.

UAB Blazers

Current record: 3-0 (0-0), 3rd in C-USA West

Nobody schedule, but 3-0.

Kentucky Wildcats

Current record: 2-2 (0-2), 5th in the SEC East

Missouri Tigers

Current record: 3-1 (1-0), 2nd in the SEC East

Season-opening loss to Wyoming looking more and more like an anomaly.

Vanderbilt Commodores

Current record: 0-3 (0-2), 5th in the SEC East

Not looking good, but playing two Top 5 teams to begin the season will do that.

What about you? Where are your expectations for the Vols now?