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In this episode of the Gameday on Rocky Top Podcast, we hit “play” on the motion offense just to see what happens. Here’s what happened:
1. I forgot to tell my computer to use the other microphone.
2. Post-Kentucky elation.
3. Post-Arkansas oh wells.
4. What is this team’s Kryptonite?
5. Is it time for Fulkerson to get back in to the starting lineup?
6. Bracketology and comparative resumes.
Bonus: Who’s your favorite broadcasting play-by-play and color guys?
Presenting the Four Factors Forecast for this afternoon’s game between Tennessee and Arkansas at Bud Walton Arena.
Rule No. 1: No dancing on that giant logo.
Rule No. 2: Avoid turnovers that lead to runaway rip-roaring for the home crowd.
Rule No. 3: Set the Anti-Rip-Roaring-inator on Willy-Nilly and deploy at will. (Try to get more offensive rebounds than usual.)
See Rules 4(a)-(e) below regarding fouls.
KemPom projects a two-point win for the Vols tomorrow — Tennessee 71, Arkansas 69 — giving the good guys a 56% chance of winning. The lines have the Hogs as 2- to 2.5-point favorites. Expect a nail biter either way.
Current numbers:
The Vols have a bit of an edge when shooting the three-ball, and the Hogs have a bit of an edge in both defensive boards and trips to the free-throw line.
So we’re a better shooting team than they are. Good to know. They’re not Arizona or Kentucky, but they do fit the profile of a team good enough to beat us at their place.
So, Rule No. 1: No dancing on the Hog logo. And that thing is so outrageously huge that looks like it’s eating the paint under one basket and . . . let’s call it making a mess . . . under the other. So, Revised Rule No. 1: No dancing anywhere.
We are basically the same team in different laundry when it comes to turnovers.
Rule No. 2: Be just a little bit better than usual protecting the ball. Turnovers lead not just to points, but to exciting points and a rip-roaring good time for the home crowd. Which leads to the officials feeling lonely and left out and wanting some of that applause for themselves. Which leads to foul trouble and (and free throws for the other team — see below) and still more rip-roaring. So, Revised Rule No. 2: Avoid Rip-Roaring by taking especially good care of the ball this afternoon.
This makes it look like we’re much better on the offensive boards than are the Feral Pigs. But if you look at the actual numbers up at the top of the post, you’ll see that the advantage really only adds up to half of an o-board per game.
So, Rule No. 3: Be just a little bit better than usual on the offensive glass. Every offensive rebound is an extra possession. It’s kind of like forcing a turnover except that you are (usually) immediately in the paint under the basket with the defense out of position. It frustrates and wears out the defense. It frustrates the crowd, deflates them, makes them suddenly aware that their feet are hurting from all that standing, and installs an obsession with consuming concessions in silence. Basically, offensive rebounds are Anti-Rip-Roaring Devices. Doofenshmirtz would call them Anti-Rip-Roaring-inators. So, Revised Rule No. 3: Set the Anti-Rip-Roaring-inator on Willy-Nilly and deploy at will.
Ouch. Arkansas appears to have a major advantage at getting to the free-throw line. The actual numbers back that up, as the Razorbacks on average get to the stripe seven more times per game than the Vols do. In a predicted two-point contest, that’s a problem.
So, Rule No. 4: Stay in front of them. Remember the principle of verticality. No foolishness away from the basket like fouling jump shooters or moving screens. Stay out of the bonus and dial up the aggression in these areas only late in the halves and only if needed. On the other side, at every opportunity, yell at Chandler and Ziegler to turn on the jets and get to the hoop and even things out a bit.
Okay, we’ll call that Rules 4(a)-(e).
Those are the straight-up comparisons. Let’s see what it all looks like with the opponent impact thrown in.
I feel like Tennessee’s season-long eFG% numbers are still suffering from the periodic bouts of narcolepsy that plagued them early in the season. Regardless, Arkansas has a good defense from a shooting perspective. The antidote is crisp ball movement, getting to Jimmy Dykes’ favorite “third side of the floor,” and then choosing between open jump shots or our burners driving to the bucket and doing something happy when they get there.
When the Hogs have the ball, they’re not especially great shooters, so the Vols just need to do what they do.
Listen, there is some Rip-Roaring in the forecast, so just brace for it. We’re a little too careless with the ball, and Arkansas has the ability to turn that carelessness into absolute sloppiness. Minimizing the turnovers must be a priority.
On the other end, they’re about as careless as we are, but our guys have the ability to turn their carelessness into absolutely demoralizing chaos for them and obsession-with-concessions territory for us. Let’s do it.
Okay, so those coveted offensive rebounds are not only usually hard to come by, the Razorbacks are going to make them especially rare. Like most (all?) of Doofenshmirtz’s -inator inventions, the Anti-Rip-Roaringinator may be thwarted by Agent P’s successor, Agent R. CURSE YOU, BIG RED THE RAZORBACK! (Seriously, though, celebrate every o-board we get. They’re valuable.)
Worse yet, offensive rebounds may be much easier to grab for the Hogs because we don’t put up much resistance.
This is where the real problem is, I think. We should get to the free-throw line as often as usual, but the combination of them being really good at getting there and us being really bad at keeping opponents from there spells trouble. See Rules 4(a)-(e) above. The goal isn’t to win this mini-battle, but to minimize its impact.
Go Vols.
What’s next for this Tennessee team?
With five games to go, the Vols are 19-6 (10-3). Two of the remaining five are Tennessee’s first match-ups with the SEC’s basement: at Missouri (10-15) on Tuesday, at Georgia (6-20) the following Tuesday. Those, of course, need to be wins. The other three are Quad 1 opportunities, where the Vols are currently 5-6 on the year.
In the SEC, Tennessee is tied with Kentucky for second place at 10-3. The Vols are two games behind Auburn, but three games ahead of the double bye. The games with Arkansas will help decide who comes in fourth, but the Hogs also have a murderous finish (Tennessee, at Florida, Kentucky, LSU, at Tennessee).
Meanwhile, Auburn’s finish continues to reflect their easier strength of schedule: at Florida, Ole Miss, at Tennessee, at Mississippi State, South Carolina. The Tigers currently have the 13th-rated strength of schedule in the SEC. Even if they stumble once, the Vols would have to win out to tie them for the SEC title. It’s a big ask, though not an impossible one. But given the nature of the remaining schedule, the most readily available piece of satisfaction would be to beat Auburn in Knoxville next Saturday.
So the Vols appear safely headed somewhere between second and fourth in the SEC. What about March?
In the Bracket Matrix, Tennessee’s average seed is 3.45 among the 35 entries coming in after the Vols beat Kentucky. We share often the value of getting to at least a three seed in the NCAA Tournament, because it keeps you away from the very best teams in college basketball until at least the Elite Eight. That’s of particular value to a program who’s only been there once.
But in KenPom, the Vols already have wins over the second and third best teams in the nation. After that, the gap between number four (currently Baylor) and the Vols (currently ninth) is narrow: if those two teams met on the neutral floor of the NCAA Tournament, Baylor would only be a two-point favorite.
So sure, maybe the moral of this story is to avoid Gonzaga at all costs; in KenPom they’re still clearly the best team in the nation. But the Zags carry less mystique this year (perhaps ultimately to their benefit) because they’re merely 22-2 instead of 24-0 right now. And under Rick Barnes, the Vols have had relative success against Gonzaga (perhaps ultimately to our downfall if we’re a four seed in their region).
But for the first time since 2019 – and one of the few times in our history – it feels like the Vols have earned the kind of trust where the bracket matters less, and the way we’re playing matters more.
So what’s left to learn about the way Tennessee is playing?
Jonas Aidoo is the biggest question mark here. The 6’11” freshman played two minutes at South Carolina, his first appearance since December 14. He got a dozen minutes as the Vols first tried things without Olivier Nkamhoua in Starkville, turning in a respectable two points, four rebounds, and three fouls. Then he played just four minutes against Vanderbilt, suggesting Rick Barnes may continue to plug and play the bench based on matchups.
But he was a force against Kentucky in 18 minutes. The Vols went 10 deep against the Wildcats, with Aidoo seeing more minutes than Plavsic (13) or Huntley-Hatfield (9).
While Josiah-Jordan James was in foul trouble and played just 19 minutes, Kennedy Chandler and Santiago Vescovi got the 36-minute treatment. John Fulkerson averaged 17 minutes per game from January 18 through February 1, but since Nkamhoua’s injury he’s back up to 24 per game.
We know Tennessee’s closing lineup (Chandler, Zeigler, Vescovi, James, Fulkerson). And Tennessee’s starting lineup has remained unchanged since Nkamhoua’s injury (Chandler, Vescovi, James, Huntley-Hatfield, Plavsic). It’s a tone-setting group that allows both Fulkerson and Zeigler to provide a spark off the bench.
There’s less consistency now with Justin Powell’s minutes: 29 at Vanderbilt on January 18, 22 vs Florida the next week, then anywhere between 7-14 the last six games. Victor Bailey is giving Tennessee two minutes some nights and eight minutes others. Again, is it matchups, hot hands, defensive intensity, etc.?
If the Vols stay healthy, they have enough quality depth for these issues to be more curiosity than liability. But I am interested to see if a more consistent rotation arises in these last five games.
We’ll keep tracking the bracket math and all that good stuff on the way in; maybe Auburn will lose and make things interesting. But these Vols are good – really good – in both theory and practice. Whatever path is before them on Selection Sunday, this team has given us plenty of reasons to believe in them.
One of the best, hardest lessons from the last two years: be in the moment. Sometimes you can’t rush ahead. Sometimes the past isn’t helpful. Just be here.
In our orange-colored world, it was one of those things that was hard to internalize because the 2020 football season spiraled so quickly, then led to a month of uncertainty as to who our coach was going to be. It got hard to be grateful somewhere along the way. It was a little easier a year ago this time with basketball, but still less so overall because that team started 10-1 but finished 8-8.
We got little moments of it last fall, a football team with few expectations turning into something competitive…and something fun. There’s a lot of gratitude in what Josh Heupel and those guys did in starting from the bottom.
But there’s a certain kind of gratitude that happens at the top.
Tennessee lost at Kentucky by 28 points one month ago today. Since then, they found their offense, building back to the rematch on a seven-game conference winning streak. The Vols were good. Tonight was a question of greatness.
And tonight was pretty great indeed.
The past can be helpful here:
And the future is still of critical importance in a tournament sport. But you never know what the tournament will bring, what shots will fall, all that good stuff. All you can do is give yourself the best chance possible by moving up the bracket.
The Vols now have wins over Arizona and Kentucky. The only program in the conversation with two better wins is Alabama (Gonzaga and Baylor). So perhaps consider us Alabama, without the baggage.
Tennessee will get north in the next projections in a hurry. They’ll get an extra day’s rest before heading into the mother of all potential letdowns at Fayetteville on Saturday. There is much left out there.
But there’s something special about your team discovering its ever-expanding ceiling against one of its biggest rivals in February. Bruce Pearl found some of this magic with mid-to-late February wins over Florida in 2006 and 2007, then Memphis in 2008. He got the Wall/Cousins Calipari team in 2010.
And Rick Barnes, as noted, has been especially hazardous to the Cats. Got them in Rupp in February of 2018 to solidify the program’s return to the national stage. Got them in Knoxville and in the SEC Tournament in March the following year.
And he got them tonight, in a win we’ll remember for a long time.
Kentucky shot infinity percent in Rupp Arena, and started off much the same way tonight. Tennessee kept pace, and we had a 17-15 game less than seven minutes in.
That’s when Fulky went into the Kentucky bench, and everyone got in their feelings. We’re still there, among many others, at the moment:
He would know: he scored the next eight points. By the time Kentucky made its next bucket, the lead was 15.
When the Vols pushed it to 17 early in the second half, Kentucky hit a 9-0 run. The lead was eight at the under 12. No worries: Jonas Aidoo, of course, would start the next run. Then a Zeigler three. Then Fulky free throws. Rinse, repeat. By the time Kentucky made its next bucket, the lead was 20.
Tennessee’s offense had the same strong shooting from the game in Rupp. Tonight, it was 44.4% from the floor, 47.1% (8-of-17) from the arc, 20-of-23 (87%) from the line. But the biggest difference, by far: turnovers. It’s what leads to Tennessee’s worst basketball, including a season-high 20 of them at Rupp Arena. Tonight: eight. That’s one off the season-low.
Meanwhile, this time the Cats were held to 34.3% from the floor, 31.3% from the arc, and a 13-15 from Oscar Tshiebwe was manageable. That is, in part, because of Aidoo: 18 minutes, five points, seven rebounds, three blocks. If he’s a viable option against these guys, he’s a viable option. The Vols used him in some double-big sets we may not see against other competition. But he also got some run when Josiah-Jordan James was in foul trouble, a potential answer to, “What if that happens in March?”
Tennessee’s greatest strength is its defense, which remains so good that the Vols don’t need much on the other end. But the Vols are also so dangerous because they get what they need from so many different guys. And tonight: 18 for Vescovi, 17 for Chandler, 14 for Fulky, 14 for Zeigler.
We never know what will happen in March. We do know we celebrate wins over Kentucky anytime they come, and we’re on a stretch right now against these guys we’ve never seen before.
But one of the most satisfying things in sports is to go into one of these, “Are we good enough to compete at the highest level,” games against your biggest rival, and leave with the answer being, emphatically, “Yes.”
Appreciate the rivalry. March will come. Be in the moment.
Tonight, the moment is pretty great.
Go Vols.
I do not like this picture.
What’s the Four Factors Forecast? This thing, right here –> Four Factors Forecast. What’s this? It’s the Four Factors Forecast for tonight’s game between Tennessee and Kentucky.
On January 15 in Rupp Arena, Kentucky made what was actually a good shooting game by the Vols look like a giant pimple on prom night. They beat Tennessee primarily with transcendent shooting — making the Vols’ elite defense look like it had gone on strike — but also forced us into an uncharacteristic number of turnovers and topped it off by overachieving on free throw attempts as we were underachieving in the same category.
As good as the ‘Cats looked during that game, it’s tempting to chalk it up to them just having a good night. The reality, though, is that yes, they had a good night, but they are also a consistently great team this season.
The good news is that Tennessee is a really, really good team, too, and may be shedding the inconsistency so slowly that the season-long numbers, particularly offensively, are lagging behind. It’s a team now mostly weaned off the offensive naps they indulged in too often in the early part of the season, and one that sports a solid, well-tested foundation and a ceiling we’re not sure where to put yet. We’ll learn much about that ceiling tonight.
KemPom projects a one-point loss for the Vols tonight — Kentucky 71, Tennessee 70 — giving the good guys a 48% chance of winning. The line, however, posts the Vols as one-point favorites. So, basically it’s a coin flip, and everybody’s expecting a thriller this evening at Thompson-Boling despite what happened earlier this season at Rupp.
Current numbers:
Prior Game:
Goodness, it was hot in Kentucky in the middle of January. It’s like both offenses were sitting comfortably in their leather wingbacks wearing old slippers and puffing on pipes next to the fireplace, blissfully oblivious of the fact that they’d both left their defenses in the back seat of the car with the door open in sub-zero temperatures. HONEY, DON’T FORGET THE CHILDREN THIS TIME!
Quick, somebody get me a thesaurus, because I’m going to need several different options to convey the phrase “bad news.” Because this is bad news.
Did Kentucky shoot freakishly well against Tennessee in Rupp? Yes, yes it did.
But I know what you want me to say, because I want me to say it, too. So, I’m going to lie to all of us and say that the Wildcats just had a good night on January 15 and it’s nothing to worry about. But I’m a lawyer, and lawyers know better than most not to trust lawyers. Which now that I think about it, presents an intriguing question: Is it possible for skeptical lawyers to lie to themselves? Anecdotal evidence at this very moment tells me no, but I’ll take your feedback in the comment section below.
The truth is, unfortunately, that the Wildcats had an especially good day the last time we saw them and that they are also the second-best shooting team we’ve played all season, consistently. Sigh.
I’ll defer to Pooh here and just say, “Oh, bother.” Both Tennessee and Kentucky average right around 12 turnovers per game, which is pretty good. But the last time out, the Big Blue gave up right at their average of 12, while we went all post-ghost Scrooge and gave up an extra eight. Let’s hope the Vols embrace utterly depraved selfishness for 40 minutes tonight. Regardless, Kentucky is the third-best team we’ve played when it comes to protecting the ball. Somebody turn the Double Z Pestinator Dial to 11 so we can dominate the Tri-State Area. (Pardon all of the Phineas and Ferb references. I’m forever about 15 years behind.)
I’ve been sitting here staring at this and just shaking my head wondering what to say. It’s been like five minutes now, so I think it’s time to punt and just tell you that I’m shaking my head and leave it at that. Yeah.
Oh, well would you look at that! Good news. Kentucky’s players couldn’t find the free throw line if Calipari duct-taped it directly onto their eyeballs. A slight exaggeration, but I enjoyed it.
Let’s see if the head-to-head opponent impact outlook looks any rosier.
Okay, so brace for them to maybe make our offense look bad. Got it.
Aaaaand brace for them to hit shots and maybe make our defense look bad, too. Okay.
We commit too many turnovers, but they’re not especially adept at forcing them. Theoretically, we should have fewer-than-normal turnovers against them, January 15th notwithstanding.
Kentucky is generally better at protecting the ball than we are, but our defense is all long arms and fast feet and is much, much feistier than Kentucky is used to. Again, January 15th notwithstanding.
Attention: Serious point ahead: If something flips tonight, I’m guessing it will be turnovers. Rather than the ‘Cats giving up their normal 12 and the Vols giving up an abnormally-high 20, I wouldn’t be surprised if those numbers flip with the home court and potentially decide the game.
Ferb, I know what we’re going to do today. First, hold our own on our own offensive glass. We have the ability. Second, ummm . . . keep pushing P? Maybe P stands for Plavsic. Or, maybe try to get Tshiebwe two fouls in the first half and fouled out in the second? Hey, the suggestion box is open.
Hey, remember that comment up there about how the ‘Cats couldn’t find the free throw line if it was taped to their eyeballs? I take it back. Not funny anymore. We’re only marginally better, and we’ll be going up against a team that somehow doesn’t foul much. The team to figure out first that the free throw line is taped to their eyeballs might win this game.
Hey. Where’s Perry?
Go Vols.
Heading into the first meeting with Kentucky, we looked at Tennessee’s struggles in keeping teams off the offensive glass. It had been a common thread in recent losses to LSU, Auburn, and Alabama, and Kentucky had Oscar Tshiebwe, who can dismantle you there by himself.
Defensively, what the Vols allow in second chances is still their most telling weakness. This season Tennessee is 16-3 when opponents get single digit offensive rebounds, 2-3 when they go for 10+. It’s a problem the Vols solved in the rematch with LSU, allowing the Tigers just five second chances.
Kentucky also got just five offensive rebounds in Rupp. But, you’ll recall, that went squarely in the, “Gotta miss shots for there to be offensive rebounds,” category.
The January 15 performance remains otherwordly. In KenPom, it’s the worst defensive performance by Tennessee in 20 years, and by a healthy margin:
So sure, any preview here starts with, “Hope they don’t shoot 68% from the floor.” If Kentucky even approaches what they shot last time, they’ll win the national championship.
Let’s assume they don’t. But I wouldn’t assume the reverse either: Kentucky leads the SEC at 37.6% from the arc, a huge feather in John Calipari’s cap. The Cats are more human from two when not playing us, sixth in the league at 51.7%. But the problem there, again, is Tshiebwe, who gives it back to them so very often.
One of the most thrilling things about Tennessee’s 2019 win over Kentucky in the SEC Tournament was the sense that the Vols beat a good Kentucky team at their best. Can this Tennessee team beat this Kentucky team at their non-January 15th best? Right now, Arizona is the sixth-best team the Vols have beaten in the last 20 years (via KenPom). Kentucky would make the list just behind them.
And one other thing about that Rupp Arena performance: it’s the exception to what makes for Tennessee’s best basketball offensively.
The Vols continue to not ask for a whole lot on that end of the floor:
And Kentucky is the one in both of those.
Are those numbers going to hold through the last three weeks of the regular season, through Kentucky, Auburn, and Arkansas twice? Can we get to the tournament talking about how little the Vols need from their shot-making because of their defense?
I continue to believe everything for Tennessee’s offense revolves around shot selection. And, under Rick Barnes, shot selection continues to revolve around ball movement. The Vols are 17-1 when they have 11+ assists – you know the one, of course – and are eighth in the nation in assist percentage.
But the one thing that will blow all of that up is turnovers, which not only negate the offensive possession, but undercut Tennessee’s massive strength on the other end of the floor. If you’re looking for Tennessee’s three worst performances of the season, relative to competition, they’re not hard to find here: 18 turnovers vs Villanova, 18 in the overtime win over Ole Miss, 20 at Rupp Arena.
Turn it over a ton against this group, get blown out. Kentucky lights the nets on fire, get blown out. And hey, maybe Tshiebwe just has an otherworldly game in him that we didn’t even need to see last time. This is the third-best Calipari team at Kentucky, and the other two won it all and were undefeated until the Final Four. These guys are very good.
But if the Vols clean it up and the Cats cool it off back toward the mean, I’m curious to see what Tennessee’s very good can do here. We already know it can beat Arizona. If Tennessee’s offense can give itself the opportunities it did last time against Kentucky, without the turnovers? I’m very curious to see what it can do tonight.
Remember being young enough that the Tuesday 9:00 PM tipoff was a blessing and not a curse?
Go Vols.
On January 15, Kentucky shot 67.9% from the floor in a 107-79 win over Tennessee. The Vols dropped to 11-5 (2-3), vanquished in three straight road tests as league play opened in Tuscaloosa, Baton Rouge, and Lexington.
Since then, Tennessee is 7-1, the lone loss by one point at Texas. Tonight’s 73-64 win over Vanderbilt moves the Vols to 18-6 (9-3), third place in the SEC and three games clear of the double bye.
In the aftermath of the loss in Lexington, we looked at how often Tennessee teams peak early, late, or are simply a product of their schedule. Now 80% of the way through the regular season, I’m not sure any Tennessee team has more accurately reflected the competition they’ve faced. The Vols lost to Villanova by 18, then beat North Carolina by 17 the next day. They lost to Texas Tech in overtime and at Texas at the buzzer. They have zero bad losses: each of their six defeats are to foes in the KenPom Top 20. And all of them are away from Knoxville, where the Vols are undefeated. Inside Thompson-Boling, the Vols have a pair of Quad 1 wins over LSU and Arizona.
The Vols are who the schedule says they are. And the schedule saved the best for last.
Kentucky was a Top 10 KenPom team when they routed the Big Orange. Then they were a top five team. Now, they’re decimal points away from being the best team in the country not named Gonzaga.
The Cats lost short-handed at Auburn on January 22. Since then, they won at Kansas by 18 and at Alabama by 11. They project as a one seed in Bart Torvik’s predictive bracketology.
John Calipari has been in Lexington 13 seasons now. His 2012 national champions finished with a 32.59 rating in KenPom. His 38-1 2015 squad finished at 36.91. Those two are the cream of his crop.
The current squad is next on the list (29.36).
That’s better than the 2019 squad we vanquished twice (27.57), better than the John Wall/DeMarcus Cousins group from 2010 (26.54).
Heading into the first meeting, this felt like a good Kentucky team with a great college basketball player in Oscar Tshiebwe. Now, this feels like a great Kentucky team.
Is this a great Tennessee team?
That answer might come slowly. But using the same metric, in KenPom this is still Tennessee’s second-best team of the last 20 years. The 2019 squad ended at 26.24. The current squad is at 24.11.
If they are who the schedule says they are, what will they do in these last six games? They’ll finally see the league’s two worst teams, albeit on the road, with Missouri and Georgia. They’ll play Arkansas twice in the last five games. And they’ll host two potential one seeds with Kentucky and Auburn.
The Vols are already good, already tracking a top four seed in the NCAA Tournament. Are they good enough to beat Kentucky or Auburn?
One thing to remember, long ago though it seems: the other team in the conversation as the best non-Gonzaga squad in the land, at least in KenPom?
Arizona.
This season may feel predictable in a good way, and we should feel good about the Vols. But if we’re wondering if we can feel great about them? No matter what you think of the metrics, if Tennessee beats Kentucky on Tuesday night? They would join Alabama with two of the best wins in college basketball this year…with, of course, none of the bad losses.
The foundation is solid. Now, for the ceiling.
Go Vols.
The win at Mississippi State gave the Vols four Quad 1 wins this year, moving their record to 4-6 against top competition. It’s clear the dates with Kentucky, Auburn, and the trip to Fayetteville will earn Quad 1 distinction. And the Hogs – winners of nine straight – could also play their way into the season finale in Knoxville being a Quad 1 showdown.
Tennessee is currently one of 29 teams with 4+ Quad 1 wins (home vs NET Top 30, neutral vs NET Top 50, road vs NET Top 75). It’s a similar resume to what we’ve seen from the Vols in their recent tournament seasons, with 2019 continuing to serve as the exception:
Tennessee’s losses remain particularly elite, with each of those six teams still in the KenPom Top 20. And #nobadlosses puts this Vol squad in particularly good company.
There are only nine teams in the country who are undefeated against Quads 2-4: Gonzaga, Arizona, Kentucky, Houston, Auburn, Tennessee, Texas Tech, Wisconsin, and North Carolina (the Tar Heels are 0-7 vs Quad 1, 17-0 against everyone else).
The 2019 Vols were also undefeated against non-elite competition, finishing the entire season with six losses, all to KenPom Top 20 foes. The 2018 Vols are a better comparison for this team: 6-7 vs Quad 1, plus a bad loss at Georgia. The 2020 Vol squad that was likely headed to the NIT pre-pandemic had three losses in Quads 2-4. And last year, Tennessee’s six Quad 1 wins on a shortened schedule were somewhat offset by two losses in Quads 2-4.
If the Vols get through Vanderbilt on Saturday – and the Commodores are playing better basketball in the last two weeks – Tennessee will enter the final six games with three or four Quad 1 opportunities. The Vols are on the four line in the Bracket Matrix, but have moved up to three in Bart Torvik’s predictive bracketology. Again, the three line is a great goal: avoid the best teams in the nation until the Elite Eight.
This Tennessee team continues to have the second-best KenPom rating of any Vol squad in the last 20 years, behind 2019. There’s work to do to get to that level. But there’s a clearer path to get toward the three line, giving the Vols an increased opportunity to make the program’s second ever Elite Eight.
If you’d been wondering what the Vols would look like on a day when they got hot from three, behold. I don’t know how many teams in the country are beating Tennessee when they shoot 43% from the floor, 14-of-27 (52%) from the arc, and 13-of-14 (93%) from the line. But it’s a very short list.
The Vols stayed at 13th in KenPom, but their rating jumped up more than a point to 23.81. At the moment, that makes them the second-best Tennessee team of the era, going back 20 years. Our strength of schedule continues to amaze: ninth overall in KenPom, with four Top 10 opponents under our belt already and games to come with Kentucky and Auburn. And if you want to believe these Vols are who the schedule says they are, today was an excellent example of what they can do when not facing one of the best teams in the nation.
How impressive was today?
And in the midst of lineup diversity and Olivier Nkamhoua’s departure, the Vols went to the now-vaunted three point guards + Josiah + Fulky group. Nkamhoua’s injury came on a shot that put UT up three with 16 to play. Zakai Zeigler did the next part by himself, back-to-back threes to put the Vols up nine. It was still nine when the Vols went to that lineup.
Nine minutes later, when John Fulkerson checked out, the lead was 24.
Josiah Jordan James played 36 minutes, turning in a J.P. Prince special with 20 points, 6 rebounds, 3 blocks, 3 steals, and 2 assists. Should Nkamhoua need to miss time, Josiah’s ability to play that many minutes is a plus in Tennessee not having to put Fulky and Plavsic on the floor at the same time.
Zakai Zeigler had 18 points and turned a close game into a comfortable one, before that lineup turned it into a blowout.
Don’t lose Kennedy Chandler in the flow: 11 points, 10 assists, and just one turnover. And South Carolina ain’t the easiest defense to do that against.
Santiago Vescovi played just 23 minutes with foul trouble, but still hit 3-of-8 from deep and finished with 13 points. And John Fulkerson gave 23 minutes, including that long stretch in the second half, finishing with eight points.
It was, quite simply, as good of an offensive performance as we’ve ever seen from this team. And the defense was what we always see.
Tennessee goes to 16-6 (7-3), and heads to Starkville (Wednesday 9:00 PM) for what should be a stiffer test. I’m not sure this win or the next one would do a ton for bracketologists at-large. But for Tennessee’s best basketball on the offensive end, this was a big win. And they got it done by relying more fully on a lineup that looks likely to make them a real threat to anyone in March.
Go Vols.
Since getting blown out at Rupp Arena, the Vols are 4-1 and undefeated in SEC play. Each of those games had their moments of uncertainty in the second half, and each time Tennessee responded with a strong close. It’s what you want from your basketball team: playing their best ball not only at the end of the year, but the end of the game.
What’s so interesting about that to me is how many different looks the Vols have used to get that done.
Here are the crunch time lineups in Tennessee’s last five games:
Santiago Vescovi has appeared in every close, to no surprise. Josiah Jordan James was injured at Vanderbilt and didn’t finish, but has closed all the others. Also appearing in every one of these: Zakai Zeigler.
I don’t read that as an indictment of Kennedy Chandler; the Texas group was on a 16-0 run, so yeah, you leave those guys in the game. To my recollection, Victor Bailey hasn’t been part of the crunch time lineup all year otherwise. But he was getting it done at Texas, so they rolled with him to the finish. Chandler struggled with five turnovers at Vanderbilt, but remains a key ingredient of what the Vols are doing throughout.
What looked like a novelty act against North Carolina has become part of Tennessee’s best basketball: three point guards on the floor at one time. Closing time has thus included Josiah at the four, and then the big most suited to the moment and the match-up. These Vols are versatile, and dangerous behind just that combination when you include Justin Powell, or Bailey’s work at Texas.
Last year, Tennessee’s uncertain lineups were one of their greatest weaknesses. This year, I think it’s a strength.
In 2021, with all its challenges, the Vols played a glorified seven-man rotation:
Those seven guys, in multiple combinations, provided almost everything for the Vols last season. E.J. Anosike played double-digit minutes in Tennessee’s first eight games, but four or fewer in the last five. He’s currently averaging 17 and 8 at Cal State Fullerton. The Vols would give Nkamhoua some run for a couple of games, then he’d disappear back to the land of four minutes or less.
The starting group was deadly on defense and inconsistent on offense. But it was also incredibly thin: get Tennessee in foul trouble, and the Vols went to lineup wheel of fortune. In the NCAA Tournament, with no John Fulkerson and Yves Pons in foul trouble? This team was quickly finished, searching far and wide on the bench but finding no answer: Anosike, Nkamhoua, and Uros played a combined 20 minutes and scored one point.
In 2020, Lamonte Turner averaged 34 minutes per game before exiting in December. From there, it looked like this:
The Vols asked an enormous amount from their starting five, including the newly-arrived Vescovi. Jordan Bowden played 34.4 minutes per game; only Josh Richardson under Donnie Tyndall (36.3) played more going all the way back through the Bruce Pearl era. The bench gave what they could, but you never felt like one of those guys was going to change the game. Davonte Gaines at George Mason, by the way, averages 11 points and 9 boards.
In 2019, Tennessee’s third-ranked KenPom offense looked like this:
Lamonte was sixth-man of the year in the SEC, but you know his crunch time work well. He essentially gave the Vols an excellent offense-defense closing group with Alexander, who ended up being the most valuable piece of Tennessee’s puzzle. He was injured in 2018 and missed the Loyola loss. And once he fouled out in overtime against Purdue in 2019, the Vols gave up a 6-0 run at the rim that essentially ended it.
But this group knew their roles and played them exceptionally well, an eight-man group with two-way versatility in crunch time.
However, I’m not sure we’ve seen anything like this mix in minutes:
That’s ten guys.
You see the balance show up in the scoring column too. Vescovi averages 14 a night, Chandler 13.4. Then the next four guys – Nkamhoua, Zeigler, Fulky, and Josiah – average between 7.4 and 8.7 points per game. Chandler takes the most shots on the team, but he’s also 47th nationally in assist rate. As a team, the Vols are ninth in the country there.
Spot the defensive weakness. The three point guards are ferocious in creating turnovers, all three rating in the Top 100 nationally in steal percentage. Fulky (99th) and Nkamhoua (103rd) are right there in blocked shot percentage. And Josiah shows up in the Top 200 on both lists.
Meanwhile, Justin Powell is now shooting 42.1% from the arc. And Uros has given the team the necessary mindset at the start of the game, and will continue to be a factor down the stretch depending on the match-up.
Will the ten-man group get trimmed to eight or so? That probably depends on Bailey and BHH as much as anybody else. Can they provide a spark, as Bailey did at the close of the Texas game? Is Fulky healthy enough and Uros out of foul trouble enough to not need a few minutes from Huntley-Hatfield? These are the two guys you’re least likely to see in crunch time right now, but it doesn’t mean they won’t be in the rotation in March.
Since the PB&J squad, we’ve seen one Tennessee team that had to ask far too much from its starting five, and one that could go seven deep but got in incredibly rough water as soon as they needed an eighth. This Tennessee squad rolls ten deep, with eight you’d feel great about if the tournament started today. They haven’t closed with the same five in crunch time two games in a row in this stretch. But everything they’ve put on the floor in the last four minutes has worked. And you can see a tourney-friendly lineup emerge with three point guards, Josiah, and the best big available.
I think there’s a good chance the versatility we’re seeing from this team is much more of a strength than a weakness. Maybe they’ve got some blowouts in them between now and Kentucky’s return on February 15. But the next time we see them in crunch time, I’ll be curious to see if we get more of the same faces, or if the trust continues to be spread around.
Go Vols.
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