Is there a blueprint for the bluegrass?

Heading into the first meeting with Kentucky, we looked at Tennessee’s struggles in keeping teams off the offensive glass. It had been a common thread in recent losses to LSU, Auburn, and Alabama, and Kentucky had Oscar Tshiebwe, who can dismantle you there by himself.

Defensively, what the Vols allow in second chances is still their most telling weakness. This season Tennessee is 16-3 when opponents get single digit offensive rebounds, 2-3 when they go for 10+. It’s a problem the Vols solved in the rematch with LSU, allowing the Tigers just five second chances.

Kentucky also got just five offensive rebounds in Rupp. But, you’ll recall, that went squarely in the, “Gotta miss shots for there to be offensive rebounds,” category.

The January 15 performance remains otherwordly. In KenPom, it’s the worst defensive performance by Tennessee in 20 years, and by a healthy margin:

• One of just five games in the last 20 years where the Vols allowed 70+% from inside the arc
• One of just five games in the last 20 years where the opponent hit 95+% of their free throws
• One of just two games in the last 20 years where the opponent scored 100+ in regulation (North Carolina in the November 2006 Preseason NIT)

So sure, any preview here starts with, “Hope they don’t shoot 68% from the floor.” If Kentucky even approaches what they shot last time, they’ll win the national championship.

Let’s assume they don’t. But I wouldn’t assume the reverse either: Kentucky leads the SEC at 37.6% from the arc, a huge feather in John Calipari’s cap. The Cats are more human from two when not playing us, sixth in the league at 51.7%. But the problem there, again, is Tshiebwe, who gives it back to them so very often.

One of the most thrilling things about Tennessee’s 2019 win over Kentucky in the SEC Tournament was the sense that the Vols beat a good Kentucky team at their best. Can this Tennessee team beat this Kentucky team at their non-January 15th best? Right now, Arizona is the sixth-best team the Vols have beaten in the last 20 years (via KenPom). Kentucky would make the list just behind them.

And one other thing about that Rupp Arena performance: it’s the exception to what makes for Tennessee’s best basketball offensively.

The Vols continue to not ask for a whole lot on that end of the floor:

• Tennessee is 15-1 when shooting 39+% from the floor
• Tennessee is 15-1 when shooting 29+% from three

And Kentucky is the one in both of those.

Are those numbers going to hold through the last three weeks of the regular season, through Kentucky, Auburn, and Arkansas twice? Can we get to the tournament talking about how little the Vols need from their shot-making because of their defense?

I continue to believe everything for Tennessee’s offense revolves around shot selection. And, under Rick Barnes, shot selection continues to revolve around ball movement. The Vols are 17-1 when they have 11+ assists – you know the one, of course – and are eighth in the nation in assist percentage.

But the one thing that will blow all of that up is turnovers, which not only negate the offensive possession, but undercut Tennessee’s massive strength on the other end of the floor. If you’re looking for Tennessee’s three worst performances of the season, relative to competition, they’re not hard to find here: 18 turnovers vs Villanova, 18 in the overtime win over Ole Miss, 20 at Rupp Arena.

Turn it over a ton against this group, get blown out. Kentucky lights the nets on fire, get blown out. And hey, maybe Tshiebwe just has an otherworldly game in him that we didn’t even need to see last time. This is the third-best Calipari team at Kentucky, and the other two won it all and were undefeated until the Final Four. These guys are very good.

But if the Vols clean it up and the Cats cool it off back toward the mean, I’m curious to see what Tennessee’s very good can do here. We already know it can beat Arizona. If Tennessee’s offense can give itself the opportunities it did last time against Kentucky, without the turnovers? I’m very curious to see what it can do tonight.

Remember being young enough that the Tuesday 9:00 PM tipoff was a blessing and not a curse?

Go Vols.