Tennessee-Kentucky Four Factors Forecast: Dial the Pestinator to 11

I do not like this picture.

What’s the Four Factors Forecast? This thing, right here –> Four Factors Forecast. What’s this? It’s the Four Factors Forecast for tonight’s game between Tennessee and Kentucky.

What to Watch

On January 15 in Rupp Arena, Kentucky made what was actually a good shooting game by the Vols look like a giant pimple on prom night. They beat Tennessee primarily with transcendent shooting — making the Vols’ elite defense look like it had gone on strike — but also forced us into an uncharacteristic number of turnovers and topped it off by overachieving on free throw attempts as we were underachieving in the same category.

As good as the ‘Cats looked during that game, it’s tempting to chalk it up to them just having a good night. The reality, though, is that yes, they had a good night, but they are also a consistently great team this season.

The good news is that Tennessee is a really, really good team, too, and may be shedding the inconsistency so slowly that the season-long numbers, particularly offensively, are lagging behind. It’s a team now mostly weaned off the offensive naps they indulged in too often in the early part of the season, and one that sports a solid, well-tested foundation and a ceiling we’re not sure where to put yet. We’ll learn much about that ceiling tonight.

Score Prediction

KemPom projects a one-point loss for the Vols tonight — Kentucky 71, Tennessee 70 — giving the good guys a 48% chance of winning. The line, however, posts the Vols as one-point favorites. So, basically it’s a coin flip, and everybody’s expecting a thriller this evening at Thompson-Boling despite what happened earlier this season at Rupp.

---

Baseline

Current numbers:

Prior Game:

Goodness, it was hot in Kentucky in the middle of January. It’s like both offenses were sitting comfortably in their leather wingbacks wearing old slippers and puffing on pipes next to the fireplace, blissfully oblivious of the fact that they’d both left their defenses in the back seat of the car with the door open in sub-zero temperatures. HONEY, DON’T FORGET THE CHILDREN THIS TIME!

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Quick, somebody get me a thesaurus, because I’m going to need several different options to convey the phrase “bad news.” Because this is bad news.

Did Kentucky shoot freakishly well against Tennessee in Rupp? Yes, yes it did.

But I know what you want me to say, because I want me to say it, too. So, I’m going to lie to all of us and say that the Wildcats just had a good night on January 15 and it’s nothing to worry about. But I’m a lawyer, and lawyers know better than most not to trust lawyers. Which now that I think about it, presents an intriguing question: Is it possible for skeptical lawyers to lie to themselves? Anecdotal evidence at this very moment tells me no, but I’ll take your feedback in the comment section below.

The truth is, unfortunately, that the Wildcats had an especially good day the last time we saw them and that they are also the second-best shooting team we’ve played all season, consistently. Sigh.

Turnover %

I’ll defer to Pooh here and just say, “Oh, bother.” Both Tennessee and Kentucky average right around 12 turnovers per game, which is pretty good. But the last time out, the Big Blue gave up right at their average of 12, while we went all post-ghost Scrooge and gave up an extra eight. Let’s hope the Vols embrace utterly depraved selfishness for 40 minutes tonight. Regardless, Kentucky is the third-best team we’ve played when it comes to protecting the ball. Somebody turn the Double Z Pestinator Dial to 11 so we can dominate the Tri-State Area. (Pardon all of the Phineas and Ferb references. I’m forever about 15 years behind.)

Offensive Rebound %

I’ve been sitting here staring at this and just shaking my head wondering what to say. It’s been like five minutes now, so I think it’s time to punt and just tell you that I’m shaking my head and leave it at that. Yeah.

Free Throw Rate

Oh, well would you look at that! Good news. Kentucky’s players couldn’t find the free throw line if Calipari duct-taped it directly onto their eyeballs. A slight exaggeration, but I enjoyed it.

Let’s see if the head-to-head opponent impact outlook looks any rosier.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

Okay, so brace for them to maybe make our offense look bad. Got it.

Aaaaand brace for them to hit shots and maybe make our defense look bad, too. Okay.

Turnover %

We commit too many turnovers, but they’re not especially adept at forcing them. Theoretically, we should have fewer-than-normal turnovers against them, January 15th notwithstanding.

Kentucky is generally better at protecting the ball than we are, but our defense is all long arms and fast feet and is much, much feistier than Kentucky is used to. Again, January 15th notwithstanding.

Attention: Serious point ahead: If something flips tonight, I’m guessing it will be turnovers. Rather than the ‘Cats giving up their normal 12 and the Vols giving up an abnormally-high 20, I wouldn’t be surprised if those numbers flip with the home court and potentially decide the game.

Offensive Rebounding %

Ferb, I know what we’re going to do today. First, hold our own on our own offensive glass. We have the ability. Second, ummm . . . keep pushing P? Maybe P stands for Plavsic. Or, maybe try to get Tshiebwe two fouls in the first half and fouled out in the second? Hey, the suggestion box is open.

Free Throw Rate

Hey, remember that comment up there about how the ‘Cats couldn’t find the free throw line if it was taped to their eyeballs? I take it back. Not funny anymore. We’re only marginally better, and we’ll be going up against a team that somehow doesn’t foul much. The team to figure out first that the free throw line is taped to their eyeballs might win this game.

Hey. Where’s Perry?

Go Vols.