The win at Mississippi State gave the Vols four Quad 1 wins this year, moving their record to 4-6 against top competition. It’s clear the dates with Kentucky, Auburn, and the trip to Fayetteville will earn Quad 1 distinction. And the Hogs – winners of nine straight – could also play their way into the season finale in Knoxville being a Quad 1 showdown.
Tennessee is currently one of 29 teams with 4+ Quad 1 wins (home vs NET Top 30, neutral vs NET Top 50, road vs NET Top 75). It’s a similar resume to what we’ve seen from the Vols in their recent tournament seasons, with 2019 continuing to serve as the exception:
Vols vs Quad 1, 2018-22
- 2022: 4-6 (3+ Quad 1 games left)
- 2021: 6-6
- 2020: 3-11
- 2019: 9-5
- 2018: 6-7
Tennessee’s losses remain particularly elite, with each of those six teams still in the KenPom Top 20. And #nobadlosses puts this Vol squad in particularly good company.
There are only nine teams in the country who are undefeated against Quads 2-4: Gonzaga, Arizona, Kentucky, Houston, Auburn, Tennessee, Texas Tech, Wisconsin, and North Carolina (the Tar Heels are 0-7 vs Quad 1, 17-0 against everyone else).
The 2019 Vols were also undefeated against non-elite competition, finishing the entire season with six losses, all to KenPom Top 20 foes. The 2018 Vols are a better comparison for this team: 6-7 vs Quad 1, plus a bad loss at Georgia. The 2020 Vol squad that was likely headed to the NIT pre-pandemic had three losses in Quads 2-4. And last year, Tennessee’s six Quad 1 wins on a shortened schedule were somewhat offset by two losses in Quads 2-4.
If the Vols get through Vanderbilt on Saturday – and the Commodores are playing better basketball in the last two weeks – Tennessee will enter the final six games with three or four Quad 1 opportunities. The Vols are on the four line in the Bracket Matrix, but have moved up to three in Bart Torvik’s predictive bracketology. Again, the three line is a great goal: avoid the best teams in the nation until the Elite Eight.
This Tennessee team continues to have the second-best KenPom rating of any Vol squad in the last 20 years, behind 2019. There’s work to do to get to that level. But there’s a clearer path to get toward the three line, giving the Vols an increased opportunity to make the program’s second ever Elite Eight.