Category Archives: Basketball

At the under eight in Starkville, Tennessee led 50-49. The Vols got five straight points from Zakai Zeigler, then traded four consecutive threes with Mississippi State in a wild sequence. The last of them, an open look from Josiah-Jordan James, put Tennessee up 61-55 with 4:34 to play.

Fun moments followed: a contested three from Olivier Nkamhoua, an alley-oop to Jonas Aidoo. But the constant, even with two guards down and Uros Plavsic nursing a turned ankle, remains defense: Mississippi State didn’t hit a shot for three and a half minutes. Their lone bucket in the final 4:34 was already too late, and Tennessee pulled away for a 70-59 win.

The second half three point shooting gets the headlines, and rightfully so. But as for what’s repeatable – assuming 8-for-9 from the arc is asking a little much – I continue to be drawn to the different things the Vols can do with their lineups, both by force and by choice.

Last year, Rick Barnes increased the size of his rotation. Eight-man groups in 2019 and 2020 gave way to a glorified seven-man rotation in 2021, one quickly undone by foul trouble. So in 2022, the Vols went ten deep:

2022 Rotation

• 29-31 minutes: Vescovi, Chandler, Josiah
• 22 minutes: Zeigler, Fulky, Nkamhoua
• 13-14 minutes: Powell, Plavsic, BHH
• 10 minutes: Bailey

There’s some fluidity in there with Olivier going down on February 5. Jonas Aidoo stepped in and finished the season at around eight minutes per game. The day before Nkamhoua’s injury, we looked at some of these numbers and noted the different closing lineups the Vols were putting on the floor. But it was easier to define what represented Tennessee’s best basketball down the stretch, especially when it involved a one-and-done point guard. Against Kentucky in the SEC Tournament, the Vols closed with the three point guard group of Chandler, Vescovi, Zeigler, with Josiah at the four and John Fulkerson. Brandon Huntley-Hatfield was also really important in the second half of this game; he and Fulky both played 22 minutes.

That same group was on the floor down the stretch against Michigan; Vescovi, Chandler, and Josiah all played 37-38 minutes in that one. So clearly, no matter the size of the rotation, the Vols knew who their very best guys were, and weren’t afraid to deviate to give them more action when it mattered most.

How does that look for the current squad?

2023 Rotation (to date)

• 32 minutes: Vescovi
• 26-29 minutes: Zeigler, Phillips, Key, Nkamhoua
• 21 minutes: Josiah
• 16-18 minutes: Aidoo, Mashack, Plavsic
• 8 minutes: Awaka

This ten-man group is obviously plus or minus Josiah’s minutes, who played 28 against Kentucky then 34 last night in Starkville. That’s a great sign.

Against Kentucky, the Vols closed with Vescovi, Zakai, Josiah, and Uros, who was having a career night. The Vols also used Olivier Nkamhoua and Tyreke Key down the stretch, creating the potential for small-ball lineups to again close it out for the Vols.

I’m curious to see if Julian Phillips can work his way into the final five, especially as we progress toward March. He only played 18 minutes against Kentucky, but went for 37 in Starkville and 26-29 in every other SEC game.

The Vols have clear flexibility for the second year in a row, and clearly enough to get a big win in Starkville when they were suddenly down to seven guys late. I’m curious to see how a closing time lineup might develop as we move into the middle of the SEC schedule. The Vols are at LSU on Saturday before hosting Georgia next Wednesday. The three game stretch that follows – Texas, at Florida, Auburn – should be the most difficult of the season so far. Will we see lineups begin to solidify? How will an already impressive rotation sharpen its skills against tougher competition?

Go Vols.

When people say a 12-team playoff will make regular season games less meaningful, Saturday’s loss to Kentucky is a great counter argument. It is, appropriately, a downer that continues to linger, with Tennessee missing a chance to get another one on their biggest rival with one of their greatest players going into the rafters. And absolutely, Tennessee can still earn a one seed and win the SEC and all that stuff. But this Monday morning has the right aftertaste of a hard loss. In sports, that’s not going anywhere.

Some of Saturday’s outcome is a credit to Kentucky following the upset playbook: 22-of-25 at the free throw line, 88%. And some of it is Tennessee doing things I’m not really concerned about them doing with frequency, like missing a bunch of layups.

In large part, Tennessee’s defense did the job we’re accustomed to seeing: 19 Kentucky turnovers, with 31.2% from the arc representing a really good day against the Vols. And of course, the Vols would’ve benefitted from hitting more shots; not just the bunnies, but a 3-of-21 performance from the arc. That stirs the ghosts of Michigan last year, when a hot-shooting Vol squad suddenly wasn’t for the wrong 40 minutes.

But when Tennessee’s offense falters, it normally gets a ton of second chances. And in UT’s three losses this season, I think it’s the biggest factor.

In 14 wins, Tennessee has gotten the rebound on at least a third of their misses. If the Vols just averaged their lowest performance in victory – 33.3% over USC – they would still be a Top 50 offensive rebounding team nationally. Tennessee actually averages 39% in offensive rebounding, fourth in the country. It peaked at 56.2% against South Carolina (so far), but the Vols were dominant here against good teams (43.8% vs Mississippi State, up next again Tuesday night) and great teams (46.9% against Kansas).

But in their three losses? The Vols got the rebound on just 25% of their misses against Colorado, 24.3% at Arizona, and a Tshiebwe-infused 11.8% against Kentucky.

Against the Cats last season, offensive rebounding was the least of our problems in Rupp Arena; the Vols ended with 33.3% but gave up 107 points to the hottest of hot shooting. In Knoxville, Kentucky found similar success: the Vols rebounded just 21.4% of their misses, but shot 8-of-17 (47.1%) from the arc. Same thing in the SEC Tournament: Vols grabbed just 22.9% of their misses, but shot 6-of-15 (40%) from three and held Kentucky to 2-of-20.

If Tennessee’s defense is the constant, the Vols will continue to run away from teams when they shoot it well. Making threes will always cover a multitude of sins. But if shots aren’t falling, this Tennessee team creates a significant portion of its offense from second chances. Against Tshiebwe, that’s always going to be a taller task, no pun intended. And there will be other Kentuckys and Arizonas of the world if the Vols advance deep into March. Arkansas is currently the best in the SEC on the defensive glass; we’ll see them on senior day.

Losing to Kentucky is no fun anytime, especially at home, especially this weekend. Overall, the Vols are still largely the team we hoped they’d be…but the offensive equation is a little more clear after this loss. If the Vols are shooting it well, they’ll be in good shape against any team because of their defense. If not, the Vols need the glass. And as they continue to play with lineups in swiss army fashion – shout out Uros Plavsic, clearly the sharpest blade on Saturday – I’m curious to see how they balance things to keep rebounding high on the priority list.

Go Vols.

One of the most important things for any team is believing you can win today.

Not tomorrow, though that’s a critical part of the same process. But there is a realized investment, at least from a fan perspective, in turning on the TV or scanning your ticket believing your team can win.

When you don’t, belief downgrades to curiosity. And if you don’t long enough, curiosity can be replaced with apathy. With nothingness.

Chris Lofton was a freshman in the 2004-05 season, when the Vols had missed the NCAA Tournament three years in a row. They brought almost everyone back from the previous year, 15-13 (7-9) with a first-round loss in the NIT.

Lofton was an immediate difference maker from the arc, shooting 46.5% while teams figured out who this freshman from Maysville, Kentucky was. He helped the Vols beat Florida in Gainesville in overtime on January 19, moving to 10-7 (3-2). But Tennessee lost seven of its next eight, removing the Vols from even the NIT picture.

It wasn’t an automatic decision to move on from Buzz Peterson at the time, which speaks to both the culture of college athletics 18 years ago and the culture of basketball at Tennessee. He was ultimately replaced with Bruce Pearl, who would go on to do all the Bruce Pearl things. But at first, I remember apathy more than anything else. When his first season began on November 18, 2005, a really difficult football season was winding to its close, ultimately finishing with a loss to Jay Cutler’s Vanderbilt. A season we entered with full-throated we-will-win-today belief endured a quarterback controversy and a 5-6 finish.

When football was hard in many seasons to come, there was almost always the opportunity to pivot to basketball: a meaningful opportunity to carry us through the winter and a belief that we could win in March, no matter what happened in the fall.

In November of 2005, that did not exist. And it has existed almost every season since then for 17 years.

And no player is more responsible for its existence at Tennessee than Chris Lofton.

Those Vols started 5-0 by way of ETSU, Louisiana Lafayette, Eastern Kentucky, Murray State, and Appalachian State. They went to #6 Texas on December 17. The fast start was appreciated, but there was little belief and I’m not even sure on curiosity.

And Tennessee won by 17 points.

To this day, it is the best example I know of in any Tennessee sport in my lifetime of how belief is always possible, its first steps always just one win away. It happened in large part because Chris Lofton had 21 points on 5-of-9 from the arc (also, shout out JaJuan Smith, who came off the bench with back-to-back threes to push a 10-point Tennessee lead to 16 early on, the definitive whoa moment of the game). Rick Barnes talked about this game this week, including the loss of Daniel Gibson to a concussion and Texas’ scramble to replace him.

Those Vols got your attention at Texas, and kept it through the start of SEC play at 11-3 (2-1). They welcomed #2 Florida on January 21, 2006. Everyone has their own opinions on what’s the loudest game in Thompson-Boling; my money stays with this one, for the sounds of sheer bewilderment that come when you believe you might win, and then realize as it’s happening in real time that it’s true. Lofton had 29 points and the steal that helped win it, firing back to Dane Bradshaw on the other end for a layup and the lead with 20 seconds to play. Two months earlier on the calendar, there was nothing. And now, there was everything.

There were, as I’m sure you know, many other famous Lofton moments to come. The shot over Kevin Durant, the win at Memphis, an SEC Championship…and even the shot against Winthrop at the end of this first season. A 34 points on 18 shots game against Memphis in Knoxville in December 2006, still the greatest individual basketball performance I’ve ever seen at UT. And the silent battle with cancer that speaks so much more about Lofton as a human being.

But on the court, to me some of the most memorable and most meaningful work Chris Lofton did came in this part, in Pearl’s first regular season and his second. The surprise in Austin, the validation against the Gators. And then the less exciting but just-as-important work that came next: making belief normal.

The Florida win became the first of eight in a row. Only one of the next seven became really famous: at Rupp Arena against Rajon Rondo’s Cats, Lofton hit 7-of-10 from the arc, 31 points, and the Vols got their first win in Lexington sine 1999.

But the other six wins in that streak happened in large part because Lofton willed them to: 33 points at Georgia the next night out after Rupp, 25 against Auburn after that. In those three games, Lofton shot 23-of-33 from the arc. That’s 69.6%. Seventeen years and Steph Curry and all that has changed in basketball later, I still struggle to make that compute.

That’s what it was like to watch Lofton: your eyes followed him on every offensive possession. No shot was too deep. And when he let it go, you believed.

Over the course of his career, joined by so many memorable teammates and a coach we certainly loved, you believed in not just Lofton, but Tennessee.

In football, we’re seeing it happen again now, in real time.

In basketball, we’ve never stopped.

The NCAA Tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985. The Vols made it just five times in the next 21 years, 23.8%. Since Chris Lofton and the Vols arrived on the national stage in 2006, the Vols have made 11 of the last 16 tournaments, 68.9%.

They made you believe we could win every night. That belief remained throughout Lofton’s entire career, accentuated by a trip atop the polls in 2008. It passed from Bruce Pearl to Cuonzo Martin, some of that era defined by a frustration to win the way we believed we could. And even at its lowest points since then, in the transition from Donnie Tyndall to Rick Barnes, the seeds of that belief were always there. And today, Tennessee basketball currently enjoys its highest KenPom rating in program history, and could go to number one tomorrow, fittingly, against Kentucky.

We believe we can win, against anyone.

No one played a bigger role in that belief than Chris Lofton. As much as any accomplishment, of which there are so many, that is a defining part of his legacy. And there is no better reason to be joining those in the rafters at Thompson-Boling.

Four years ago, Tennessee opened SEC play with a 96-50 beatdown of Georgia. Even with a team you already knew was really good by that point, it was an abnormally great performance. It remains the only 40+ point win over an SEC foe since 1979.

Those Dawgs were not great: 8-4 at the time, 11-21 at the end, 132nd in KenPom. From the Bruce Pearl era onward, Tennessee has seven wins of 30+ points against SEC foes. And, as you’d expect, five of them came against teams finishing outside the Top 100 in KenPom.

Ten years ago, Cuonzo Martin’s Vols caught Kentucky in their first game without Nerlens Noel, and laid down the law in an 88-58 shocker. That UK squad ended up in the NIT, as did those Vols. Kentucky was 18th in KenPom at tip-off, but finished 55th.

I’m not sure exactly where this Mississippi State squad will finish. They were as high as 22nd before what is now a three-game losing streak, leaving them currently 46th. And they were a nine seed in yesterday’s Bracket Matrix.

The story of Tennessee’s season won’t be defined by how good those Bulldogs are or aren’t, though we’ll see them again in Starkville in 12 days. But when considering a ceiling that already looked pretty good, this week’s performance – an 87-53 win – makes you start thinking about a skylight.

It wasn’t Josiah-Jordan James’ return by itself; hard to make it only about that when Tennessee leads 16-0 as he’s checking in. But his presence – eight points and four assists in 17 minutes – deepens the questions about what Tennessee’s best lineups even are. Having no definitive answer there means there could be even better basketball still out there somewhere. And the notion that Tennessee’s offense will automatically struggle has never made less sense than Tuesday night.

Better shooting may be harder to come by, considering it set the program record for effective field goal percentage in KenPom. It’s happened a couple of times in the post-2019 world for the Vols, when a squad with an outrageously good defense gets hot at the same time, and just annihilates anyone from Kansas two years ago to the team with the previously-sixth-best defense in the land this week. While the Vols are unlikely to be quite so hot again, the stuff that makes their best basketball – 28 assists on 36 made shots – can continue to hang around. And Josiah’s presence allows for small ball lineups we really haven’t been able to see.

Meanwhile, the last of the unbeatens is down in college basketball, and the race for the number one seeds is on:

• One Loss: Arizona, Houston, Kansas, Purdue (plus Kansas State and TCU)
• Two Losses: Alabama, Arkansas, Tennessee, Texas, UCLA, UConn (plus Iowa State, LSU, Miami, Missouri, Wisconsin)

Tennessee is the second number two seed in the Bracket Matrix, and the second overall seed in Bart Torvik’s predictive bracketology. The Vols are at South Carolina on Saturday, then play Vanderbilt in Knoxville on Tuesday before Kentucky comes calling January 14. The regular season will hit its halfway point next week. And at the moment, there’s a small gap forming in KenPom between the top two teams – that’s Houston and Tennessee – and everyone else.

The Vols have looked good and very good. They’ve never looked better shooting the ball than they did against Mississippi State. But if a full roster has indeed presented itself once more, Tennessee has even more room to grow. So what already might be some of the best basketball we’ve seen in Knoxville is, in a very real sense, just getting started.

Go Vols.

The week between Christmas and New Year’s has been light on anticipation in years past, but not now: while the football team prepares for the Orange Bowl on Friday, the basketball Vols tip-off SEC play at Ole Miss tonight (watch out, that’s a 5:00 PM eastern tip-off on the SEC Network). Rick Barnes’ squad continues to chase new ground for the program: the Vols are the second two-seed in this week’s Bracket Matrix, in hot pursuit of Tennessee’s first number one seed. And in KenPom, the Vols enter league play with what would be a program record in overall efficiency rating, and a historic number in defensive efficiency; Will Warren has been all over that pursuit this season.

When those numbers are that good, there’s a temptation to believe we should be feeling even better about this team. Tennessee lost a 50/50 game at Arizona, and has the heeded wake-up call vs Colorado on the resume. Their most impressive performance to date doesn’t count in the exhibition win over Gonzaga. But some of the hesitation may come from some of this team’s early struggle in doing that essential basketball truth of putting the ball through the net: Tennessee is 232nd in effective field goal percentage, and 186th from the arc at 33%. The latter would be Tennessee’s worst number from the arc since the 2020 season, when Jordan Bowden was routinely smothered and Santiago Vescovi was stepping off an airplane. The overall effective FG% number is so far the worst of this now six-year run of Barnes’ teams competing on a national level.

And yet, the Vols are as strong as they are both on the floor and in the advanced metrics for more than just “defense good.”

In particular, Tennessee leads the nation in three critical categories:

Opponent Three-Point Percentage

Teams shoot a robust 20.1% from the arc against the Vols. Houston is second in the country at 24.0%. That’s, uh, pretty good.

In a dozen games, two teams have cracked 30% from three against Tennessee. Two. Colorado hit 8-of-26 (30.8%). Southern Cal hit 5-of-15 (33.3%). The rest? Kansas shot 23.8%. Butler 21.7%. Maryland 8.3%. There’s a zero in front of that one. And Arizona was 5-of-24, 20.8%.

The additional note on all of these is that Tennessee has done most of this without Josiah-Jordan James. But when the Vols have Santiago Vescovi, Zakai Zeigler, and Jahmai Mashack at their disposal on the perimeter, you’re gonna have a bad time.

Teams can get hot, sure. This goes for the Vols too, who I’m sure have a suddenly-hot game in them when they’ll blow out a good team. But overall, the Vols are smothering teams from the arc at a rate not close to anything we’ve seen: in the last six years, no Tennessee defense has held opponents to less than 30% from the arc for an entire season.

What about on the offensive end?

Offensive Rebounding Percentage

Our old friend from the Cuonzo Martin days is back with a vengeance. In 2014, the Vols grabbed 39.7% of their misses with Jarnell Stokes and Jeronne Maymon on the floor, fifth best nationally. This Tennessee team is operating at the same level: 39.9%, best in the land. Tobe Awaka is dominating here as his minutes grow. But Julian Phillips has been consistently good here as well, fulfilling a backside rebounding role that Josiah was also good at. The best any Barnes team in the last six years has done is 33.4% in 2018, 41st nationally led by Kyle Alexander and Grant Williams. We probably don’t think of this team as post-heavy like those Cuonzo squads, but so far they’re every bit as good on the glass. And when the ball isn’t going through the net the first time as much as you’d like, offensive rebounding covers a multitude of sins.

Assist Rate

An old Rick Barnes friend, better than ever. The Vols are assisting on 69.7% of their made field goals, well ahead of last year’s 63%, UT’s highest of this era. This continues a trend of an offense based less around individuals winning one-on-one and more around ball movement and shot selection. Tennessee couldn’t replace Kennedy Chandler here, but they have so far re-created him: Vescovi and Zeigler, again, are really good.

On the offense-first 2019 squad, Grant Williams averaged 18.8 points per game, Admiral Schofield 16.5. Other than those two, who’s the last Tennessee player to average more than 14 points per game?

It’s Kevin Punter, 22.2 in Barnes’ first year. That’s seven basketball teams ago.

The current squad appears unlikely to break that streak, with Olivier Nkamhoua and Santiago Vescovi both at 11.8 points per game entering league play. But the Vols have ranked no worse than 30th nationally in each of the last six seasons in assist rate, and are doing it better than ever right now.

All of this will get tested in the fires of SEC play + Texas over the next 19 games, starting tonight in Oxford. If more shots fall for this offense, the Vols will solidify their argument as one of the very best teams in the nation. But even if they don’t, if this team continues to excel at defending the three, sharing the ball, and giving themselves second chances? Tennessee will continue to have a chance to beat anybody, anywhere.

Go Vols.

Tennessee’s 75-70 loss at Arizona capped a terrific day of college basketball, one that will set the landscape as the sport moves to conference play. In the power six conferences, only three teams remain unbeaten: Purdue, UConn, and the surprising year one surge from Chris Jans and Mississippi State. The Bulldogs survived 68-66 against Nicholls State, joining their close wins over Marquette and Utah to build to 11-0. We’ll learn much more there soon: after facing Drake tomorrow, Mississippi State opens SEC play with Alabama and a trip to Knoxville.

In the last five non-covid-affected NCAA Tournaments (2016-2019, 2022), one seeds average 4.55 losses on Selection Sunday, two seeds 6.25 losses. The race to the top of the bracket sometimes comes down to how little you’ve lost. In that regard, UConn appears to have the best combination of talent + league: the Huskies are the only Big East team currently in the KenPom Top 25, but have five wins over the KenPom Top 50 including a 15-point victory over Alabama. Gonzaga appears less likely to be in the one seed chase this year, but Houston is 11-1 and has no remaining games over KenPom Top 25 foes in the American (Memphis is 26th).

Beyond those two, the plot thickens.

KenPom projects the three best leagues to be the Big 12, Big Ten, and SEC. The latter two have issues with the basement (Minnesota 178th KenPom, South Carolina 195th), but each boast five teams in the KenPom Top 25. The Big 12 is ridiculous top-to-bottom, with four teams in the KenPom Top 25 but almost the entire league in the Top 50 (Kansas State is currently 52nd). Any team who separates from those packs is likely staring a one seed square in the face, but chaos seems far more likely. That could benefit the best teams in weaker leagues: Virginia in the ACC, UCLA or Arizona in the Pac 12.

We’ve combined KenPom’s regular season projected records with Bart Torvik’s TourneyCast probability for one seeds. At the outset of conference play, the race for the top of the bracket looks something like this:

KenPom Projected Losses & Torvik TourneyCast 1 Seed Probability

Team	KenPom Projected Losses	Torvik 1 seed %
UConn	3	62
Houston	3	55.3
UCLA	5	35.3
Gonzaga	5	3.7
Tennessee	6	40.7
Purdue	6	50.1
Arizona	6	26.6
Virginia	6	6.7
Kansas	7	44
Duke	7	10.5
Virginia Tech	7	0.6
Texas	8	19
Alabama	8	23.7
Arkansas	8	3.7
Memphis	8	0
Kentucky	9	0.9
Mississippi St	9	0
Arizona State	9	0
Baylor	10	8.2
West Virginia	11	6.1
Indiana	11	1.1

The projected losses, of course, is entering conference tournament play. So they’re all plus-one if that squad doesn’t win during championship week.

Despite the loss to Arizona, Tennessee currently has the fifth-best odds to earn a one seed at Torvik, which would make them first on the two line if all this held true. I’m uncertain how much of these projections are reliant on the health of Josiah-Jordan James, who continues to be game-to-game. All of these teams are worth keeping an eye on, especially in what still appears to be a more wide-open year without clear favorites.

Who’s the best team Tennessee will play this year?

If the answer ended up being Kansas, we’d certainly take it. The Jayhawks rebounded from their loss to the Big Orange in Atlantis by dropping bombs on Seton Hall (91-65) and our previously-unbeaten brethren from Missouri, in CoMo, 95-67. I know the best team we’ll play this year probably isn’t Maryland, in part because the Terps responded to losing to us in the other direction. UCLA blasted them 87-60, also on their home floor.

In KenPom, there’s an upper crust emerging: UConn is undefeated and first, Houston lost only to Bama (also at home) and is second, and the Vols are third. The aforementioned Bruins are next, around 1.5 points behind the Vols on a neutral floor. The numbers take a small dip there, but next is Purdue, also undefeated and the current top choice in the Bracket Matrix. Its most recent update from December 14 is less kind to UCLA as a four seed, but has Purdue, UConn, Virginia, Houston, Kansas, and Tennessee as the top six teams in the nation, all tightly packed with seed averages of 1.something.

It’s early. But things will shift quickly: conference play begins before the Orange Bowl, and the SEC is as strong as ever at the top. The league has three teams in the KenPom Top 10 and Arkansas at 14th, plus Auburn and still-unbeaten Mississippi State in the Top 25. There’s a gap from there, but that’s a good group of six. Tennessee picks up both Auburn and Mississippi State home-and-home this year. But Alabama and Arkansas both come to Thompson-Boling.

Any conversation as to who our toughest opponent might be will always include Kentucky; it’s their burden to be uncertain about this year’s team while simultaneously being sixth in KenPom. Texas is seventh in KenPom, and also comes to Knoxville.

There are lots of options; it’s in Rick Barnes’ nature to ensure the schedule works that way. We’ll probably spend all year trying to figure out our toughest opponent.

But our toughest single contest, I’d imagine, will be one of two things: Rupp Arena, as usual.

And tomorrow night.

The NCAA Tournament is a neutral site affair. And we learned last year that no matter how bad you may look in a hostile environment – Vols return to Rupp on February 18 – it’s not the best indicator of your chances in March.

Arizona learned this early in our game last year, with Tennessee blitzing them to a 16-2 lead. The Wildcats came all the way back to tie it, but John Fulkerson had his moment with 24 points and 10 rebounds, and the Vols won 77-73. The Wildcats would still go to Selection Sunday at 31-3.

Saturday night at a ludicrous 10:30 PM eastern time, the Vols make the return trip. It’s an amazing number one offense vs number one defense game, one you wish would take place in front of more eyeballs. But there will be plenty of them in Tucson, I’m sure.

The winner is guaranteed little in the moment, but can continue to build a strong resume in what appears to be a crowded field, give or take your current level of belief in UConn or Purdue. From a regular season/advanced stats perspective, we’ve grown used to seeing one team at the top for several years now. I’m not sure any compare to Kentucky’s 2015 juggernaut, but those Wildcats opened the door for a kind of “this-is-clearly-the-best-team” run. Villanova earned that place in 2016 and 2018. But most of the other seasons, it was Gonzaga: KenPom champs and national runners-up in 2017, the only team within a hair of the 2019 champs from Virginia in efficiency, undefeated all the way to the title game in 2021, and back atop that list last season before falling to Arkansas in the Sweet 16.

Gonzaga did much of that with Tommy Lloyd, who took the Arizona job last season. The Bulldogs are not that team this year: Texas and Purdue beat them by 37 combined points. The Vols, you’ll recall, beat them by a similar margin in a televised exhibition. And relative to talent, Rick Barnes’ teams have always played well against Gonzaga, and did so again with Lloyd’s team last year.

With Gonzaga being less Gonzaga-like, the regular season conversation feels much more open. And when the Top 5 teams in KenPom are UConn, Houston, Tennessee, UCLA, and Purdue? It feels w-i-d-e open.

Part of that becomes the chase for the four number one seeds. On Selection Sunday in the last five non-covid-affected NCAA Tournaments, the one seeds averaged 4.55 losses on Selection Sunday. The two seeds averaged 6.25 losses. Maybe the wide open nature of the season means more losses for everyone. But those top teams are getting ready to go their separate ways to conference play. Will the Vols get more beat up than UConn or Virginia? How will Purdue fare in an equally-tough Big Ten?

So this one at Arizona, aside from its own incredible offense/defense merits, could be the small difference between a one and a two seed at the end. Sometimes, it’s just about who has fewer losses. And the winner has a great opportunity to put themselves a step ahead here.

It may not get any tougher this year than Tucson. But the NCAA Tournament won’t be played on anyone’s home floor. For a Tennessee team still trying to ascertain its own health and lineups, while still playing the nation’s best defense? It’s an incredible opportunity in what is shaping up to be a fun, wide open year to get one step closer to the top of the bracket.

Go Vols.

The web browser marks the changing seasons: my most-visited sites were once SP+ and SportSource Analytics, and most recently every bowl projection I can find, to try to understand this Rose Bowl madness. But already, winter’s champions emerge once more: KenPom, the Bracket Matrix, and Bart Torvik.

In KenPom, the Vols are third overall this morning, still boasting what would finish as their highest rating in program history. The Bracket Matrix still has their preseason projections up, reflecting a pre-Colorado, pre-Atlantis world. In it, the Vols were the first #3 seed. That number is in the neighborhood of the best of what we’ve seen from Rick Barnes’ teams at UT, and the best in program history:

• #2 Seeds: 2006, 2008, 2019
• #3 Seeds: 2018, 2022

My favorite feature at Torvik’s site is the T-Ranketology, a predictive bracketology, which shows you after any given result how the field of 64 might end up looking. Like anything else, we wouldn’t turn to it this time of year expecting full-on accuracy in March.

But as the calendar turned to December this week, note the team at the top:

We noted Tennessee’s ascension from Atlantis to Atlantis, where the Vols went to the Bahamas five years ago and scored a huge overtime win against #18 Purdue to put themselves in the conversation, and five years later won the whole thing by smothering the defending national champs. And it’s the conversation that remains football’s greatest accomplishment this season, the Vols appearing in every mock 12-team bracket you’ll find this week.

Believing your team can win championships is the goal. Five years ago, when the Vols went to the Bahamas, basketball hadn’t even made the NIT in three years. Baseball hadn’t made the NCAA Tournament in 12 years, and Tony Vitello was preparing for year one. And football was finishing up the first and only 4-8 season in program history.

In 2022, the baseball team was number one in the country for most of the year. Football was number one in the initial college football playoff rankings. And it’s early, but basketball is building a resume that could earn the program’s first ever number one seed.

It’s early. And, truth be told, it’s still early in the stories of Tony Vitello and Josh Heupel at Tennessee too. What Rick Barnes and basketball have built is the hope of sustainability: you’re not just good because Grant Williams, Admiral Schofield, and all those guys are on your team for a couple years. Those teams do their part, earn their place on the banners, and pass the chase on to the next group, ready to pursue anew.

In 2022, the three programs with the most eyeballs in the men’s athletic department can put a super regional, an SEC Tournament title, and a New Year’s Six bowl on the board. Baseball and football also reached the top of the mountain in the regular season; basketball could be building that for Selection Sunday.

Hey, I’m frustrated with the bowl selection process too. But the most important work this football team could do is already secure. Basketball, alongside them, can give itself the opportunity to do something in the bracket the program has never done before.

And in all three sports, from where we were five years ago at Thanksgiving, to where we are in this first month of December?

Give thanks. Go Vols.

Over at Bart Torvik’s predictive bracketology, the Vols would be well acquainted with their current neighbors on the one line:

• Texas, first in KenPom and second in defensive efficiency, comes to Thompson-Boling Arena on January 28
• Tennessee, third in KenPom and first in defensive efficiency
• Arizona, ninth in KenPom and third in offensive efficiency, hosts Tennessee on December 17
• Houston currently rounds out this group, second in KenPom and third in defensive efficiency

We’re a long way from March. But we miss no opportunities to celebrate. So on this Thanksgiving Weekend…how bout them Vols.

If you watched it, it wasn’t the most aesthetically pleasing performance. Tennessee turned it over 24 times, 17 in the first half. Recall last season, when UT’s worst performances could be directly tied to this number: 18 turnovers in the loss to Villanova, 18 in an overtime squeaker against Ole Miss, 20 in the blowout at Rupp Arena.

Twenty-four last night, seventeen in the first half…and the Vols led by eight at the break. And won by 14. Against the number three defending national champions.

Kansas gave it away 16 times, 11 credited to Tennessee steals. Four of those belonged to Zakai Zeigler. And the Vols also did good things from the arc when they weren’t giving it away: 12-of-27 (44.4%) from the arc, including 3-of-5 from Zeigler and a shooters shoot 5-of-14 from Santiago Vescovi.

Two years ago, Tennessee blew out Kansas in Knoxville in a “what if we get hot” game: 8-of-13 from the arc, 16-of-17 at the line, 52.8% from the floor overall. It was a good look at the ceiling, but a less predictable outcome from game-to-game. Those Keon Johnson/Jaden Springer Vols were 12-3 after that win, won at Rupp the following weekend, and were 14-4 on February 10. But they went 4-5 in their final nine games, including two without John Fulkerson and a defense more reliant on one player, Yves Pons, who sat much of the NCAA Tournament loss to Oregon State in foul trouble.

This Tennessee team played their way through Atlantis without Josiah-Jordan James, sitting with knee soreness. They finished the Kansas performance at 41.5% from the floor and, again, the 24 turnovers.

But what can show up much more predictably is defense. And we’ve seen some really good versions of that over the years, from last year to the 2018 team, all the way back through Cuonzo. Bruce Pearl’s best defensive team in 2010 is the one that went the farthest in the NCAA Tournament.

It’s early. But this team is chasing new territory on multiple fronts:

Long season, lot of time left, every caveat in the book imaginable applies here. But: Tennessee currently has the #1 defensive efficiency in KenPom's 22-year history at 83.7. Next-best: 2019 Texas Tech at 84.1. pic.twitter.com/k3QUErgZCr

— Will Warren (@statsbywill) November 26, 2022

And, of course, the elusive one seed in an NCAA Tournament featuring regionals in Louisville or three plane tickets to Kansas City, New York, or Las Vegas.

The whole goal of the regular season is to get as far up the bracket as possible, and to be playing your best basketball when it arrives. Tennessee will once again have the strength of schedule component well in hand: three tune-ups in Knoxville are next, then Maryland, then Arizona.

We’ll see about Josiah, we’ll see about the three-point shooting. In Atlantis, a surprising offensive rebounding surge appeared: 15 against Kansas on 31 misses, otherwise known as almost half of them. If that continues, we could see a team that looks a lot like that 2014 Cuonzo squad with Jarnell Stokes, one that can excel both defensively and on the offensive glass. That brand of basketball can cover a multitude of sins.

And there ain’t many of those on this team to begin with. Right now, this team has a higher KenPom rating than any Tennessee squad at the end of the season.

Five years ago, Tennessee went to Atlantis and entered the national conversation with a crucial program win over #18 Purdue. Five years later, the Vols took home the conch shell with a dominant win over #3 Kansas. It is the eighth Top 5 win for Rick Barnes at Tennessee:

• 2017: Tennessee 82 #4 Kentucky 80 (Knoxville)
• 2019: #7 Tennessee 76 #1 Gonzaga 73 (Phoenix)
• 2019: #7 Tennessee 71 #4 Kentucky 52 (Knoxville)
• 2019: #8 Tennessee 82 #4 Kentucky 78 (SEC Tournament)
• 2022: #16 Tennessee 76 #4 Kentucky 63 (Knoxville)
• 2022: #17 Tennessee 67 #3 Auburn 62 (Knoxville)
• 2022: #9 Tennessee 69 #5 Kentucky 62 (SEC Tournament)
• 2023: #22 Tennessee 64 #3 Kansas 50 (Atlantis)

And if this team continues to develop, more will be on the way.

Go Vols.

The last time the Vols went to Atlantis, Rick Barnes’ program entered the national conversation during one of the most tumultuous weeks for the entire athletic department.

This weekend will mark five years since Schiano Sunday, coming at the end of the program’s only 4-8 football season in history. The baseball program hired Tony Vitello five months earlier, a dozen years removed from the NCAA Tournament. And men’s basketball hadn’t been there in three years themselves, which felt like a really long time after the success of Bruce Pearl and then Cuonzo Martin’s Sweet 16 squad.

Though the football team reached incredible heights for six weeks in 2016, the fall happened so quickly the program was left with its least competitive season in 2017, swiftly followed by its wildest coaching search. We didn’t know it when that Battle 4 Atlantis tipped off, but Tennessee was getting ready to move to an incredibly vulnerable place, with its major sports all looking for some kind of tangible success.

Rick Barnes followed one year of Donnie Tyndall (16-16), then went 15-19 and 16-16 in his first two seasons. The year before, playing a bunch of freshmen, the Vols showed some promise before fading late. In November of 2017, they got #18 Purdue in the opening round of Atlantis, with the RPI prize of top five Villanova awaiting the winner. The Vols had an opportunity to not just win a game, but play themselves into the conversation.

In a contest that still ranks as Tennessee’s most exciting game of the Barnes Era over at KenPom, those freshmen-turned-sophomores grew up quickly:

Tennessee, with Lamonte Turner’s three at the end of regulation and turning back two five-point deficits in overtime, beat the #18 Boilermakers. A Top 20 win would register differently now – Rick Barnes now has seven Top 5 wins under his belt at UT – but in the moment, it was an incredibly important victory. And though the Vols fell to Villanova the following day, they finished the week right with a win over NC State.

That set the stage for everything we’ve enjoyed since:

Tennessee’s Highest Rated Teams in KenPom (2002-present)

1. 2019 – 26.24
2. 2023 – 25.24 (present)
3. 2022 – 24.81
4. 2014 – 23.69
5. 2018 – 22.27
6. 2008 – 22.17
7. 2021 – 19.95

Five of the last six years, including this one’s current projection, have given us five of the seven highest-rated basketball teams we’ve seen at Tennessee. Since the Bahamas, five Novembers ago, Tennessee basketball has been in the national conversation.

They remain there this week, currently sixth overall in KenPom though 22nd in the AP poll after the surprising loss to Colorado in Nashville. In Atlantis, the Vols are the highest-rated team in KenPom, even with the defending champs in the field (who went through NC State 80-74 earlier today):

• Kansas (13th KenPom) vs NC State (66th)
• Dayton (37th) vs Wisconsin (45th)
• BYU (59th) vs USC (62nd)
• Tennessee (6th) vs Butler (88th)

There are no duds in this field. A showdown with the Jayhawks in the finals would be great, but a consistent performance all week feels like an equally important goal. Continuing this week’s overall theme of, “you just never know,” the Vols exorcised the demons of the SEC Tournament in March, making us believe they could do just about anything…then blew out Gonzaga in an exhibition…then lost to Colorado.

But consistency has been the mark of the program overall since Atlantis five years ago. It carried the Vols to a 13-1 run to close the regular season and the SEC Tournament last year. And it would be a welcome sight this week, as Tennessee continues to compete for the goals that perhaps first reappeared on the horizon five Novembers ago.

It starts with Butler tonight at 7:30 PM on ESPN2. Go Vols.