Author Archives: Will Shelton

Even after losing to Georgia, last week marked the second-highest confidence level of the season overall. After blowing out Missouri, fans were even more confident the Vols would get to 11 wins than we were coming out of the Alabama game. It did not go that way, of course, but this chart is still a wonder to behold over the course of the entire season:

Officially, the Vols will go to Nashville with Joe Milton as QB1:

https://twitter.com/Vol_Football/status/1594447220132270084

So now, the final question of the regular season carries much more weight: how confident are you the Vols will beat Vanderbilt? The Commodores have won two straight over Kentucky and Florida, and are now battling for bowl eligibility. The Vols, depending on how Tuesday’s playoff poll looks, will be positioning themselves for a New Year’s Six bowl. And in the longest of terms, Tennessee will look to finish off its best season in at least 15 years, would earn its first two-loss regular season in 18 years with a win, and give themselves a chance to play for its first 11-win season in 21 years.

Past, present, and future with Milton, there is a ton to play for Saturday night. How are we feeling this Monday morning?

A season that has surprised us all saved another one for tonight. And this time, unfortunately, it was not the fun kind.

These things always need the full season to find their proper place, as much as the moment may invite us to do otherwise each week. This post will go up on our front page next to one breaking down historical precedent for one-loss teams in the College Football Playoff. Guilty as charged for spending more time on that than previewing South Carolina. Couldn’t help myself: how often have we gotten to spend real time discussing the playoff?

Those are the tangled emotions tonight: an unbelievable rise for a team we collectively expected to finish 8-4, an unbelievable setup for your closing playoff argument (so we thought), and now an unbelievable result to remove that option from the table.

I wrote last week about the inevitability that had suddenly surrounded watching this team play, the way they coasted past Missouri when the Tigers cut it to four in the third quarter. And then tonight, South Carolina’s offense carried a similar feeling.

Even when Tennessee cut it to four themselves, 35-31 with almost ten minutes to play in the third quarter? So much time for this team, it felt like. But Carolina’s offense again pounced, a nine-play drive with only one third down, and a 42-31 lead. Tennessee attacked again, because that’s what we do, moving the ball to what should’ve been the South Carolina 30. But a small but dangerous truth showed itself again: the only way to stop this offense is to make it go backward, and an offensive pass interference call wiped away the chance for points on that drive.

And then South Carolina converted 3rd-and-20 on their following drive. Then they got another first down on a hands to the face penalty on 3rd-and-8. Then they scored. Then Hendon got hurt.

There are many things about tonight that will ultimately run together; none of them will add up to scenarios where we could’ve won given those set of plays. And that’s a frustration the Vols will have to play themselves past, into the future. Beat Alabama the way we did, and you’ll rightfully believe you can do anything. Allow nine South Carolina touchdowns in ten possessions, and you’ll rightfully be concerned you might be more vulnerable than you realized on any Saturday.

Whether this is the biggest loss since whatever will need more time; for many of the younger persuasion, it will have fewer competitors. For Tennessee, and it seems for Joe Milton, there are still 2022 pages left to write. How will the Vols respond against Vanderbilt? What bowl destination are we looking at now, as we wait to see how the playoff poll responds for the New Year’s Six?

There is still a tremendous opportunity to finish this chapter and have it be not just overwhelmingly positive, but transformational. That the story of this team would not be what they lost, but what they gave themselves – and those who’ll follow them – the opportunity to do. Those last few paragraphs will still be quite meaningful for things to come. And if the Vols can continue to play at a championship-conversation level? They’ll have their chances to learn from this and grow, still early in Heupel’s tenure, by winning games that carry this kind of meaning again.

For those of us of the older-ish persuasion, or at least the middle-aged ones? I find some comfort in remembering times when we were avalanched by Florida’s offense in 1995 and 1996, Nebraska’s in 1997, or Florida & Alabama in 2007…and still turned something profound out of those seasons. No one is mistaking this South Carolina team for those offenses, just as no one would’ve with Alabama’s in 2007. There’s a shock value that feels hard to find the right comparison for tonight.

But I also would’ve said the same about beating Alabama blow-for-blow, not too very long ago. Or being number one, even for a single week.

So now, how will these final few pages be written? Even tonight, I’m eager to see them try again.

Go Vols.

The Vols remained at #5 in the College Football Playoff poll this week after two overtimes and many of our bedtimes. Shout out to Michigan State, giving the Vols an early transitive scrimmage win over Kentucky in basketball.

The top four speak for themselves, all undefeated at 10-0. LSU trails the Vols at six, and will get their chance against number one Georgia in a few weeks. USC is seven, with Clemson (#9) and North Carolina (#13) also still alive as potential one-loss conference champions.

While the Vols don’t control their own destiny, there are certainly clear-cut scenarios left out there. The happiest of those would include four of these five outcomes:

• The Ohio State/Michigan game is a blowout
• TCU loses at Baylor, then loses again in the Big 12 Championship Game
• Georgia beats LSU in the SEC Championship Game
• USC loses one of its remaining games (at UCLA, Notre Dame, Pac 12 Championship)
• Clemson (Miami, South Carolina) or North Carolina (Georgia Tech, NC State) loses one of its remaining regular season games, then beats the other in the ACC Championship Game

If all of those things happened, there would be no one-loss conference champions. Georgia is number one, the Ohio State/Michigan winner is number two, and the Vols have the no-doubt next best resume. Even if only four of those things happened, Tennessee would still be in excellent position to earn one of the top four spots.

The messiness comes with more and more of those outcomes falling through. TCU obviously controls its own fate and would get no arguments here. But you would get plenty of argument surrounding a group that looked like this:

• 11-1 Ohio State/Michigan loser in a close game
• 11-2 LSU beats Georgia in the SEC Championship Game
• 12-1 USC as Pac 12 Champion
• 12-1 Clemson or UNC as ACC Champion

If TCU is undefeated, you’ve got those four plus 11-1 Tennessee for the final spot. That’s a mess. It’s one the Vols still might come out on top of, currently sitting at number five and thus primed to move to number four after Ohio State/Michigan. But it would be a lengthy conversation.

The most likely outcome is, of course, somewhere between our best and worst case scenarios. But a couple of those would still present brand new scenarios for the committee to consider.

Here’s a look at the eight-year history of the College Football Playoff, from Wikipedia:

A couple things stand out here:

• Two teams made the playoffs without appearing in their conference championship game: 2016 Ohio State and 2017 Alabama. Both of those teams got in without a one-loss conference champion being left out. This made things much cleaner. But this also means if we’re comparing 11-1 Tennessee to 12-1 USC/TCU/Clemson on selection Sunday? Picking the Vols over a one-loss conference champion would represent a scenario that hasn’t happened before.
• 2016 Ohio State does give some precedent to the Vols getting in over SEC Champion LSU. That year, Penn State actually beat the Buckeyes head-to-head, then won the Big Ten. But their two losses – including 49-10 to Michigan – kept them out over Ohio State’s lone 24-21 loss in Happy Valley.

I count eight one-loss power five teams who got left out in the history of the playoff. Half of them involve the Big Ten. All of them seem to make sense:

• 2014 Baylor & 2014 TCU were famously left out in the first year of the playoff for four other undefeated or one-loss conference champions, which directly led to the return of the Big 12 Championship Game. That year is also the only non-covid time any one-loss team was seeded higher than an undefeated power five champion (Florida State), though the Noles still made the playoffs at #3.
• 2015 Iowa lost to Michigan State in the Big Ten Championship Game, putting 12-1 Sparty in and giving the Hawkeyes their first loss, leaving them out. Ohio State was also 11-1 this year with a narrow loss to Michigan State, but ended the season with just one ranked win. It didn’t matter for making the playoff, but the committee did put them behind 11-2 Pac-12 Champion Stanford in their final ranking.
• 2017 Wisconsin, like 2015 Iowa, was undefeated going to the Big Ten title game, but lost to Ohio State. The Buckeyes still didn’t get in at 11-2, left out for 11-1 (and eventual national champs) Alabama who didn’t make Atlanta. The committee went Alabama #4, Ohio State #5, Wisconsin #6.
• 2018 Ohio State won the Big Ten, but lost to Purdue 49-20 in the regular season. That year three teams finished the regular season undefeated, plus 12-1 Oklahoma, who got in at #4. Georgia was 11-2 and finished #5, then the Buckeyes.
• 2020 Texas A&M finished 8-1 in the pandemic year. They lost 52-24 to Alabama in the regular season, and finished #5 behind three undefeated/one-loss conference champions and 10-1 Notre Dame.
• 2021 Notre Dame lost head-to-head to Cincinnati in the regular season; the Bearcats got in as the first Group of Five teams to make the playoffs while Notre Dame finished fifth.

Purely based on historical precedent, Tennessee’s biggest competition at present among one-loss teams is USC. But I wouldn’t even completely rule out Clemson or North Carolina just yet, or TCU if it loses just one game. The good news is, we’re still talking about two theoretical spots left if/when TCU loses and not just one.

The Vols have to keep winning, and looking good doing it doesn’t hurt. We’d certainly prefer not to be in a situation where the committee has to do something they’ve never done before to put Tennessee in. But the Vols should still have an amazing resume if that conversation ultimately takes place.

We’ll cross more of that bridge when we need to. For now: Go Vols, Go Baylor, Go Bruins.

We’ve reached the final two games of the regular season, which means our boundaries are pretty clearly defined in expected wins. That’s usually true for Tennessee when we close the season with Vanderbilt; it’s especially true for this Tennessee team, playing with an inevitability they’ll take on the road to South Carolina this week. The Gamecocks just got drilled in Gainesville 38-6, and have beaten only Vanderbilt since a brief appearance in the Top 25.

The Vols remain at #5 in the polls this week, continuing to lead the pack among one-loss teams. Yesterday, we also got an old reminder of the intersection between football and basketball when football is having a good year. Tennessee’s unexpected loss to Colorado in Bridgestone Arena – with the Vols shooting just 16-of-63 (25.4%) from the floor – will fall to the outer edges of the radar while the playoff chase is on. It happens in ways we tend not to remember, which is the point: Bruce Pearl’s 2008 squad that eventually went to #1 lost 97-78 to Rick Barnes’ Texas squad on November 24, 2007…but it barely registered, because the Vols beat Kentucky to win the SEC East in football the same day. Buzz Peterson’s first team, coming off four straight NCAA Tournament appearances, lost to Marquette and St. John’s while the 2001 Vols were climbing the BCS ladder.

Barnes’ team will command a little more attention; the program’s rise under his watch has earned it. The Thanksgiving tournament next week should make for a great weekend build as the Vols prepare to close out the regular season with Vanderbilt. Between now and then, our eyes will continue to follow the teams around the Vols in the playoff chase this upcoming Saturday: TCU at Baylor at noon, USC at UCLA at 8:00 PM.

The football team continues to tread not only 90s ground, but best-of-the-90s ground. At five weeks in the Top 5, the 2022 Vols have been in the national conversation longer than many of the seasons we know and love. And with wins over South Carolina and Vanderbilt, they’ll have a chance to move into at least third place on this list:

(Shout out to the 1967 Vols, quickly becoming a modern-era benchmark, who spent seven weeks in the Top 5 themselves):

Tennessee Most Weeks in the Top 5 (since 1967):

• 13 weeks in 1998: September 19 through end of season (went to #4 after beating #2 Florida, finished #1)
• 9 weeks in 1997: Preseason through September 20 (lost to #2 Florida), November 8 through Orange Bowl (returned after beating #24 Southern Miss, finished #7 after loss to #2 Nebraska)
• 8 weeks in 1995: October 14 through end of season (went to #5 after beating #12 Alabama, finished #3)
• 7 weeks in 1999: Preseason through September 18 (lost to #4 Florida), October 9 through November 13 (returned after beating #10 Georgia, left after loss at Arkansas)
• 5 weeks in 2022 (and counting): October 15 through present

Enjoy the week. Don’t stop now.

When Missouri hit a 38-yard pass to make it 28-24 midway through the third quarter, were you worried?

Tennessee still had a sizeable statistical advantage, turned away twice on fourth down inside the Missouri 40 in the first half. The Tigers, meanwhile, had already gone three-and-out four times. It felt like Tennessee was in control.

And even after last week, Tennessee feeling in control has suddenly become normal.

I know this feeling, from my own childhood. We treated Florida one way, but just about everybody else the other: no matter what happens, we’ve got this. The number of times we’ve sat in Neyland Stadium and watched an underdog show some fight, still knowing the Vols have it under control because that’s what the Vols do…

It stopped being that way for a long time, of course. But again today, the comparisons are less about how different this is than the last 15 years. That’s how long it’s been since we went undefeated in Neyland. That’s how long it’s been since we won nine games in the regular season.

No, the better comparisons are now about how short the list is. This team isn’t just like the 90s. This team would hold its own against just about any of them.

9-1 Starts at Tennessee since 1970

• 1989: Finished 11-1, SEC Champions
• 1995: Finished 11-1, #3 Final Ranking
• 1997: Finished 11-2, SEC Champions
• 1998: Finished 13-0, National Champions
• 2001: Finished 11-2, SEC East Champions
• 2022: Currently 9-1

The Vols will almost certainly add “New Year’s Six”, at least, to that list. The playoff chase continues outside of Neyland Stadium; Oregon and TCU both find themselves in tight games as I write. All of that will or won’t work itself out. But Tennessee, asserting itself in a game it always had control of with national stakes in November?

There’s such comfort with this team.

By asserting itself, I mean three touchdowns in the next seven minutes of game time, 21 points in 13 offensive snaps. That sequence included two more Missouri three-and-outs, just for good measure. Tennessee just moves with such purpose; they are not perfect, but they are coming on every drive. The Vols punted twice today, staying on their average of two punts per SEC contest. One was with a 25-point lead. The other was because a holding penalty put Tennessee in 1st-and-20. Again, the only way to make this offense punt is to make it go backward.

And today, it went forward for 724 yards, a school record. The old record belonged to the 2012 Troy game, a “why aren’t we taking control?!” affair with a coach on his way out. Long live the new record, and this team on its way up.

We took our five year old son to the game today, his first. The weather could’ve been better, but I’m not sure anything else missed. Do I tell him, “Hey, 66 points doesn’t happen every week!” Or, “Hey, 724 yards has never happened, so maybe don’t get used to it?”

Because this – old and new and all of it – oh, we could get used to this.

What a gift this season is.

And it’s not at all over yet.

Go Vols.

Of all the benchmarks we can use for this turnaround, the happiest one is Missouri.

On October 2, 2021, the Vols went to Columbia at 2-2. Vanquished at Florida the week before in a second half that got out of hand, 38-14. An announced attendance of 82,203 to watch them fight but fall to Pittsburgh two weeks before that. The surest thing was status quo, and Missouri was a 2.5-point favorite.

And then somewhere in here, something started:

Lots of things have started here over the last 15 years, and some of them even took those next few steps. But they all ultimately faltered, making those first steps more easily forgotten, and harder to appreciate the next time.

These Vols have more than followed through on theirs, climbing so high it’s hard to even connect all the dots on the fly. But that first one – just 13 months ago, the first fruits of labors begun just 22 months ago – it’s hard to miss. Tennessee outperformed the spread by 40.5 points, the program’s best mark since 1994. They did it effortlessly.

And in these next three weeks, making it look that easy would go a long way again.

Fans think the Vols will get to that 11-1 finish. But it’s not as clear-cut as it might seem on the surface. Maybe it’s the ghosts of 2016, maybe it’s trying to find our footing after the Georgia loss. But in this week’s expected win total machine, fans give the Vols an 82.7% chance of victory against Missouri, 80.5% at South Carolina, and 93.8% at Vanderbilt. Add all that up, and you get an expectation of 11 wins…barely.

We’ve come a long way not just since Missouri last year, but since week two this year, when fans believed 7-5 was a hair more likely than 9-3. And now, we’ve been feeling 11-1 since beating Bama…it’s just a matter of hanging on to it.

And for Tennessee to get where they want to go in the College Football Playoff poll, they may need to do more than hang on.

The good news: Josh Heupel and this team tend not to discriminate. Tennessee stays on the accelerator against all comers, as both Missouri and South Carolina can attest to from last year. The Tigers never stopped Tennessee on that glorious afternoon. The following week, South Carolina found a brief respite in the third quarter by doing the one thing you have to try to do against this offense: make it go backward.

Hooker was sacked on three consecutive drives, allowing South Carolina to turn a 38-7 game into a 38-20 game, plus get the ball back one more time. The defense held, and the Vols punched it in a final time for the final margin. But putting the Vols in negative situations remains the best and perhaps only way to get past this offense.

Here’s an updated version of our question from the Georgia preview last week:

What Made Tennessee Punt?

• Florida: never punted
• LSU: 2Q Leading 20-0, three straight incompletions from the LSU 38
• LSU: 3Q Leading 30-7, offensive pass interference created 1st-and-19, punted on 4th-and-6
• Alabama: 2Q Leading 21-10: no gain, incomplete, complete to Fant for 7, punted on 4th-and-3 (muffed)
• Kentucky: 1Q Leading 7-0, offensive pass interference created 1st-and-25, punted on 4th-and-27 after holding penalty
• Kentucky: 2Q Leading 20-6, sack on first down created 2nd-and-18, punted on 4th-and-8
• Kentucky: 3Q Leading 37-6, false start on first down created 1st-and-15, sack on third down created 4th-and-20
• Georgia: 1Q Trailing 7-3, false start on first down, punted on 4th-and-6
• Georgia: 1Q Trailing 7-3, 75-yard punt leads to sack on 3rd-and-6, punted from the end zone
• Georgia: 1Q Trailing 14-3: run for 2, run for 3, incomplete, punted on 4th-and-5 at the UT 41
• Georgia: 3Q Trailing 24-6: sacked on first down at the UGA 41, sacked again on 3rd down

In Tennessee’s 10 punts in five SEC contests, seven have come because of a sack or a penalty. No teams have had consistent success stopping this offense from going forward. But if you can make it go backward – or if the Vols do that to themselves via penalties – you can get it off the field.

Is this Missouri defense good enough to make the Vols go backward? Will we see them sell out to try, especially after last week? It’s a good test right away to see how the Vol offense will continue to adapt and go forward; they’ll get another chance next week to face a hostile environment and put those skills to the test on the road as well.

We’ve come a very long way, those first steps taken, over and over again, at Missouri and vs South Carolina last fall. Can the Vols take them again in these last few weeks? Can Tennessee learn and grow from Athens, and extend itself against these two defenses once more?

Do that, and the biggest goals – the ones we still dreamed of somewhere deep in our hearts and our memories all those months ago, even after all those years – will still be right in front of this team.

Go Vols.

Here’s the question now: how confident are you the Vols will go 3-0 the next three weeks?

That starts this week with Mizzou, who was blown out 40-12 at Kansas State in week two. The Wildcats are #23 in the land this week, so we probably weren’t giving them enough credit back then. Since then, Missouri has four one-possession losses to Auburn, Georgia, Florida, and Kentucky. The Tigers also beat Vanderbilt 17-14, and won at South Carolina in their best performance, 23-10. In each of those six SEC games, the Tigers scored between 17-23 points, and gave up between 10-26 points.

Much of the conversation about Tennessee will come into picture once we see the playoff poll tomorrow night. There are no opportunities left for quality wins on Tennessee’s regular season schedule (unless South Carolina beats Florida and Clemson on the way in, but that might get in the way of Florida becoming a quality win if they win out). But if Tennessee’s resume was good enough for #1 last week, one would assume it’s not going to fall so far to remove the Vols from the conversation this week.

Just keep winning.

I’ve been down with the flu for the past few days, and I feel like this game fit that mood perfectly: stuffy, sleepy, body aches, all that. Credit the defending champs for playing like it: Georgia’s defense may or may not have the first round picks of the 2021 squad, but they were a force today. Where Alabama largely tried to create pressure from its front and failed, Georgia got Tennessee out of rhythm – and the Vols did that to themselves plenty too – then blitzed repeatedly. It worked: Hooker was sacked seven times, and finished with 17 yards rushing on 18 attempts. In last year’s matchup: six sacks, 17 carries for 7 yards.

No disrespect to the 12:00 PM Baton Rouge crowd, but this was the first championship-level test for this group of players on the road, and like many things, we’re not great at it on the first try. The Vols did do some good things, especially defensively. I’m not sure how we properly rate the second half, or how much Georgia wanted to push the issue in the rain, wary of what Tennessee’s own offense had done coming in. But though the Vol offense struggled on this day, the defense held the Dawgs to 3.5 yards per carry, their lowest total in two years. Georgia, again, made several big third down conversions early, finishing 7-of-12. And they hit the big plays the Vols were never able to find.

#Vols coach Josh Heupel: We just weren't good enough today. We didn't make critical plays in critical spots.

— Wes Rucker (@wesrucker247) November 5, 2022

So, a tip of the cap to the champs for a well-deserved win. The Vols will be big favorites over Missouri, South Carolina, and Vanderbilt; win those, and the New Year’s Six is the worst thing that’s going to happen to you. The program goal is getting ready to be, “Can you make a 12-team playoff?” These Vols would be on their way.

Can this team make a four-team playoff? Sure. Here’s what we need now:

• Losses from Clemson and TCU. The Tigers are at Notre Dame tonight, then finish by hosting Louisville, Miami, and South Carolina. TCU is at Texas, at Baylor, then hosts Iowa State, plus a potential Big 12 Championship Game. Keep an eye on the playoff poll on Tuesday; the Vols starting at #1 is an obvious advantage, let’s see where UT lands in proximity to these other teams. (Notre Dame blocked punt right on cue let’s gooooooooooooooooo)
• Does Alabama really matter now? If the Tide win out, they’re in. If they lose anywhere along the way, that’s two losses. So I’m not sure how concerned we should be with Alabama’s placement as it relates to Tennessee (though sure, it would be crazy to have the Vols behind them, even if Bama blows LSU out…which we’ve already done).
• Is 11-1 Tennessee more attractive than the loser of Ohio State/Michigan? This part may not matter by Thanksgiving Weekend anyway, but if the field is still crowded, you’d like a blowout in that game if both teams arrive undefeated.

If you pencil in Georgia and the OSU/Michigan winner, two spots are left. An 11-1 Tennessee wouldn’t get in over an undefeated Clemson or TCU. But they’ll have a good case otherwise.

Lots of story left to be written here, and a good ending is still out there.

In a four-team playoff, there may still be opportunity for the loser on Saturday. Because of that, it’s hard to quantify exactly where this game falls on the list of, you know, “biggest ever.”

But I do know this: if Clemson, TCU, and the Ohio State/Michigan winner remain undefeated, it’s very unlikely the loser is getting in. You give up control of your own destiny. So I don’t know if this will end up being remembered as the biggest game since xyz…but it very well might be. Might as well win it.

The calendar is always such a factor, and the truth is, we never really know. Other than the BCS Championship Game, we didn’t really know our favorite memories from 1998 could become some of our favorite memories ever at kickoff. This is how 2001 Florida, the only non-98 comparison to what we’ve seen this year, gets so high up the list: you knew all the stakes, the rewards and the consequences.

We don’t know all the consequences here. But we absolutely know the rewards. So how can the Vols get them?

Tennessee may be evolving beyond its most reliable predictor of success: Hendon Hooker’s rushing/sacks allowed. The Vols remain 11-1 when Hooker averages 3+ yards per carry as a starter, with the lone loss coming against Ole Miss last year. He averaged 8.6 per carry against Florida, 5.6 at LSU, and 4.0 against Alabama.

But the Vols are now 3-4 when he doesn’t. One of those wins is the Pitt game, which turned ugly early and stayed that way for much of the day, an overtime affair the Vols won. But against Kentucky, Hooker ran just 10 times for 23 yards…and Tennessee rolled.

Clearly, the Vol offense can get it going even without Hooker’s legs. But I do still think pass protection is a huge piece of the equation.

Here’s a fun game I like to call:

What made Tennessee punt?

• Florida: never punted
• LSU: 2Q Leading 20-0, three straight incompletions from the LSU 38
• LSU: 3Q Leading 30-7, offensive pass interference created 1st-and-19, punted on 4th-and-6
• Alabama: 2Q Leading 21-10: no gain, incomplete, complete to Fant for 7, punted on 4th-and-3 (muffed)
• Kentucky: 1Q Leading 7-0, offensive pass interference created 1st-and-25, punted on 4th-and-27 after holding penalty
• Kentucky: 2Q Leading 20-6, sack on first down created 2nd-and-18, punted on 4th-and-8
• Kentucky: 3Q Leading 37-6, false start on first down created 1st-and-15, sack on third down created 4th-and-20

Of those seven punts in Tennessee’s four SEC wins, six came with the Vols already in front by at least two possessions. The other, of course, is the 4th-and-27 punt from last week. But you can sense a pattern: two drives stopped by OPIs, two others by sacks.

Again, not rocket science: the best way to slow down this offense is to put them in negative yardage, or hope the officials agree with your interpretation. Tennessee does remain one of the most penalized teams in the nation (122nd in penalties per game, 124th in penalty yards per game). The defending champs are fifth in flags per game and 15th in penalty yards per game. Something to keep an eye on, especially on the road.

One big question this week is impossible to answer until gametime: how much better was last year’s historic Georgia defense compared to this one? If you’re looking for Hooker’s worst performance as a runner, it’s easily that game last season: 17 carries for seven yards, sacked six times.

And yet, the Vols scored 17 points and had their chances for more:

• 1Q 7-7: 3rd-and-1 at the UT 34, Hooker run for no gain, punt
• 3Q 24-10 UGA: 4th-and-4 at the UGA 17, incomplete
• 3Q 27-10 UGA: 4th-and-13 at the UGA 39 (after sacked on 2nd-and-6), incomplete
• 4Q 34-10 UGA: 3rd-and-6 at the UGA 7, Hooker sacked and fumbled

Where’s the line between the improvement of Tennessee’s offense and the rebuild/reload of Georgia’s defense?

Perhaps more important to victory on Saturday: how often can Tennessee’s own defense get off the field?

Here’s how the Vols let Georgia off the hook last year:

• 1Q 7-0 UT: 3rd-and-7 at the UGA 44, Stetson Bennett run for 13 yards
• 2Q 10-7 UT: 3rd-and-8 at the UT 38, Bennett to McConkey for 14 yards
• 2Q 17-10 UGA: 3rd-and-7 at the UGA 30, Bennett to Mitchell for 11 yards
• 2Q 17-10 UGA: 3rd-and-5 at the UT 32, Bennett to Mitchell for 9 yards
• 3Q 24-10 UGA: 3rd-and-10 at the UT 40, Bennett to Bowers for 14 yards

The Dawgs ended the day just 5-of-12 on third down, but each of their five conversions was at 5+ yards to go. When you get the chance to get off the field against this bunch, you have to take it.

Georgia also gashed the Vols in the red zone last year, with no real down-and-distance opportunities for the Vols to stop them. I’ll be curious to see if Tennessee’s much-improved red zone defense can make that part a factor in this year’s game.

In our expected win total machine, fans are giving the Vols a 46.1% chance of victory. On the road, that feels like a toss-up number, which says a lot about how far we’ve come. Can the Vols protect Hooker and avoid going backwards on offense? And can the defense get off the field on third-and-medium?

Do that, and we’ll be projecting 12 regular season wins come Monday.

Go Vols.