Author Archives: Will Shelton

Jesse Simonton’s piece at VolQuest this week produced a familiar answer to a fun late-July question. What’s Tennessee’s most important game?

It’s Florida. It’s almost always Florida.

There are quotes Tennessee fans will like in Jesse’s piece, offering some behind-the-scenes insight on how Jeremy Pruitt’s staff seems to understand the importance of Vols/Gators around here. And while Florida has been a consistent answer to that question since the divisional format began in 1992, why the game is so important has shifted over the years from Tennessee’s perspective.

It’s easier to think of seasons when Florida didn’t feel like the most important game in late-July. It’s also fun to look at the impact of the Florida game at the end of each year. Here are a few thoughts on the pre-and-post-season answers to Tennessee’s most important game since the Vols and Gators have been together in the SEC East:

1992-95: The Bama Streak

Even though the Vols and Crimson Tide aren’t in the same division, Alabama still felt like the most important game of the year until the Vols broke what became a 10-year streak. It took that, in 1995, to really turn the attention of Tennessee fans fully toward Gainesville, where by then Florida had picked up a three-year run of its own over Tennessee. Looking back, only the first of these years in 1992 wasn’t also defined by what the Vols did against Alabama in the end. Phillip Fulmer’s takeover made the Florida game the most meaningful at the end of the ’92 season, both the best memory from that year and the one that most assisted Fulmer in becoming Tennessee’s next head coach. 1993’s longest-lasting memory is the tie against the Crimson Tide, a near-miss at the goal line the longest from 1994, and that jubilant night in Birmingham still sings 23 years later from 1995.

1996-2001: Tennessee/Florida as a National Rivalry

With the exception of a rebuild in 2000, in every one of these years you knew there were national championship implications on the line when Tennessee and Florida met. And only once, when the Vols lost to Florida in 1997 but still made the SEC Championship Game, did the outcome fail to define Tennessee’s season. These six match-ups were #2 vs #4, #2 vs #4, #2 vs #6, #2 vs #4, #6 vs #11 in 2000, then #2 vs #5. That’s all you need to know.

2002-03: A Brief Intermission for Miami

Having drained The Swamp and watched Steve Spurrier leave for the NFL, the Vols were free to dream a little bigger heading into the 2002 season. The defending champs from Miami would visit Neyland Stadium that November, and with the Vols in the preseason top five it felt like the biggest bulls-eye coming in. Of course, the 2002 season didn’t go as planned, starting with a rainy day against Florida that ended up being the longest-lasting memory from that year. The following season Florida was back in its rightful place atop the most important list at the start of the year, but a surprise upset in the return match with the Hurricanes (and a three-way tie in the SEC East) made the win at Miami the season’s most memorable.

2004-09: Change on the Horizon

With Ron Zook at Florida, Georgia took advantage. Florida won the BCS title in 2006, but it was their only SEC East crown from 2001-07. Tennessee and Georgia split the other six, making the Dawgs the most important game on the front end in 2004 and 2005, plus Georgia’s preseason #1 turn in 2008. It lived up to that standard in 2004, as the Vols stunned #3 Georgia in Athens en route to the division crown. And while it may not have felt like the most important game coming in, wins over Georgia in 2007 and 2009 were the best memories from those years. During this span the Vols also had critical early-season non-conference games that mattered a great deal in perception: California in 2006, and UCLA for Lane Kiffin in 2009.

2010-17: You’re not really back until you…

Beat Florida. During the Derek Dooley and Butch Jones tenures, only once was Florida not the most important game of the year coming in: 2013, in Jones’ first year, with Vanderbilt on the rise under James Franklin and the Vols having lost to Kentucky in 2011 and Vanderbilt in 2012. After the Dooley era, beating the Gators felt like too big of an ask for Jones in year one, the most sober we’ve been as a fan base (and maybe even more sober than we are right now). I’d listen to an argument for 2015, that more people were invested in that Oklahoma game in Neyland than Florida in The Swamp coming into the year, but I’m not sure I’m buying it. For Dooley, only in the end was the Florida game truly the most important: his first team turned it over to Tyler Bray at South Carolina and seemed to turn a corner; his second team threw all that right in the fire at Kentucky, which should never ever be your most impactful game of the year. Butch Jones got more positive out of beating South Carolina in 2013 than losing to Vanderbilt, but Florida has been the most painful memory in each of the last four years. Three losses that absolutely should not have been, and one spectacular win that couldn’t stand the test of time by season’s end.

By my count, Florida has felt like the most important game coming into the year in 15 of the last 22 seasons since the Vols broke the Bama streak. And it has been the game with the longest-lasting impact on Tennessee’s year 11 times in those 22 years, including five of the last six. It’s a far cry from what we saw in the late 90’s, but the stakes still feel quite real. They’re all important for Jeremy Pruitt, including West Virginia. But the answer is almost always Florida. It’s Pruitt’s job to raise those stakes even higher.

 

Tennessee takes the stage in Atlanta today, and the media will unveil their picks for the 2018 SEC standings before the week is out. Georgia should be the overwhelming favorite in the SEC East coming off a near-miss in the national championship game and the number one recruiting class of 2018. How the rest of the division shakes out will be of interest to Tennessee, and not just this season.

This is an era Tennessee fans of my age (36) and younger are unaccustomed to. Georgia hasn’t won the SEC in consecutive years since the Herschel Walker days in the early 1980’s. The Dawgs have two sets of back-to-back division titles (2002-03 and 2011-12), but both times the second year came via a tiebreaker. Tennessee fans who grew up familiar with Georgia playing third fiddle have never seen a Bulldog program consistently on top the way they’ll have a chance to be in 2017, 2018, and beyond.

And the gap between one and two is substantial. Their traditional contemporaries at Florida and Tennessee changed coaches. Missouri seems due for an up year on the field, but is yet to level up in recruiting. Kentucky and Vanderbilt have yet to shed their reputations under their current administrations. Will South Carolina be the #2 pick in this year’s SEC East?

That idea may also seem foreign to those of us holding on tightly to Tennessee’s glory days in the 1990’s. But the truth is it’s not just South Carolina, but the vast majority of the SEC that’s been better than Tennessee the last ten years:

SEC Overall Records 2008-2017

Team	Wins	Losses	Pct.
Alabama	125	14	.899
LSU	95	34	.736
Georgia	95	39	.709
Florida	86	43	.667
Auburn	83	48	.634
South Carolina	81	49	.623
Missouri	80	50	.615
Texas A&M	77	52	.597
Mississippi State	74	54	.578
Ole Miss	69	57	.548
Arkansas	67	59	.523
Tennessee	62	63	.496
Kentucky	53	72	.424
Vanderbilt	53	72	.424

(data from the always-helpful stassen.com)

This is the Tennessee recruits know: not Kentucky and Vanderbilt, but not on par with the rest of the league either.

And this is where Jeremy Pruitt’s first comparison must fall: not to Georgia, and certainly not to Alabama. But what are his Vols doing against the rest of the SEC East?

#5: The Vols vs The Non-UGA SEC East

At the old site we did an annual off-season piece ranking the importance of each game for the upcoming season. It was equal parts fun and futility, because it’s impossible to know how good or bad Derek Dooley’s offense will actually be when Missouri comes rolling into Knoxville on November 17. But in general, I think we can say this for 2018: the five most important games will be the ones against the non-Georgia SEC East.

West Virginia will be the first impression and would be fun to steal, but Pruitt’s first real measuring stick will be how this rebuild is going compared to the one in Gainesville, how quickly it can catch what’s happening in both Columbias, and how well it can avoid another loss to Kentucky or Vanderbilt.

A little more than a month ago we looked at Pruitt’s relative recruiting success compared to the non-UGA East in blue-chip ratio. Tennessee’s has fallen, for the moment, below the 50% threshold needed to be in the national championship hunt. But the Vols are still out-performing the rest of the non-UGA division. Six of Tennessee’s 14 commitments for 2019 are four-or-five-stars, 42.3%. South Carolina sits at 6-of-16 (37.5%), Florida at 4-of-11 (36.3%), while Kentucky, Missouri, and Vanderbilt are yet to nab a four-or-five-star.

That’s good news for climbing the ladder in the future. In the present?

Here’s how the non-UGA SEC East projects in ESPN’s FPI, Bill Connelly’s S&P+, and Phil Steele’s Power Poll:

Team	FPI	S&P+	Steele
Florida	21	32	23
Missouri	29	30	28
South Carolina	28	35	24
Tennessee	54	79	70
Kentucky	60	64	75
Vanderbilt	76	75	85

As you can see, the preseason expectation for Tennessee is basically what the last ten years have been: better than Kentucky and Vanderbilt, but in a lower tier than Missouri, South Carolina, and Florida’s restart.

We’ve got this as only the fifth most important question for Pruitt’s first year. But it will rise quickly as time goes on. Derek Dooley had the Vols competitive for four quarters with the entire division in 2012 until he was a dead man walking, but couldn’t take advantage. Butch Jones should have won the SEC East in 2015 and 2016, but too many close games led to too many close losses before the bottom fell out. Now Georgia is the biggest threat within the division since Urban Meyer and Tim Tebow a decade ago.

The early returns in recruiting suggest Pruitt will bring in the necessary talent to get the Vols back in the conversation. How much progress will we see on the field in those five games this fall?

 

10 Questions for 2018

10. Which backups on the defensive line will be starters in 2019?

09. Can special teams make the difference in a coach’s first year?

08. What do we know about Tyson Helton’s offense from his time at USC?

07. Who’s the third/fourth wide receiver in an offense that will actually throw them the ball?

06. What about team chemistry with a first-time coach and a hodgepodge of players?

 

We tend to overestimate the importance of a previous coach’s weakness. Butch Jones got elite talent to Knoxville, but struggled to keep it there. Potential difference makers from Preston Williams to Venzell Boulware left the program before their time was up, and actual difference makers like Jalen Hurd did the same. You can call it chemistry or culture or whatever you like, but it’s a significant percentage of the reason Jones isn’t here anymore.

How significant will this issue be for Jeremy Pruitt, a first-time head coach?

#6: New Coach, New Chemistry

So far, it’s been a non-issue. Darrin Kirkland Jr. flirted with the idea of transferring but ultimately stayed. Rashaan Gaulden, John Kelly, and Kahlil McKenzie all went pro earlier than hoped, the latter two going only in the sixth round. But we’ve avoided the rash of transfers a new coach often deals with.

One significant difference between Jones and Pruitt: the current coach is thoroughly familiar with recruiting, coaching, and developing four-and-five-star talent. There’s no other option at Florida State, Georgia, and Alabama. Butch Jones was successful at Central Michigan and Cincinnati, but his only experience at a power five school before coming to Knoxville was two years as the receivers coach at West Virginia.

Again, we’re probably overestimating the importance of chemistry just because Jones struggled with it. But though the Vols have avoided the transfer bug, chemistry can become an issue in another way for first-year coaches.

As you’re probably aware, Nick Saban lost to Louisiana-Monroe in year one. Kirby Smart lost to Vanderbilt. Dabo Swinney lost to a 2-10 Maryland squad. It happens.

But it usually doesn’t happen out of the gate. Swinney lost to Maryland on October 3, Smart to Vanderbilt on October 15, Saban to ULM on November 17.

(Of note: if you think Lane Kiffin’s worst loss at Tennessee wasn’t the Ole Miss debacle, but the UCLA game – and I’m in this camp – that happened in week two. So this isn’t a hard and fast rule.)

When you have players who were recruited on the promise of championships, and especially players who almost got a taste of one like Alabama in 2005, Georgia in 2014, and Tennessee in 2016? They can lose interest much faster in a rebuilding year, especially if they’re seniors.

The good news on that front: the Vols only have 12 seniors, and only seven of them (Todd Kelly Jr., Micah Abernathy, Shy Tuttle, Jonathan Kongbo, Kyle Phillips, Chance Hall, Paul Bain) have been meaningful contributors. There shouldn’t be a whole lot of guys who lose interest, because most of them can be back in 2019.

The (potential) bad news: there aren’t a whole lot of guys in any one category.

You’ve got those seven seniors, plus guys like Kirkland and Jauan Jennings who know what it’s like to play in and win big games. You’ve got the major contributors from last year looking for redemption like Guarantano, Ty Chandler, Marquez Callaway, etc. You’ve got high profile recruits who haven’t gotten their chance yet like Maleik Gray and Jordan Murphy. You’ve got Pruitt’s signees. And then you’ve got a whole bunch of graduate transfers, including potential starters at quarterback and running back.

That’s a lot of ingredients in the soup bowl. We’re all wondering if it’s any good. But it’s also worth wondering if it’ll turn five or six weeks in.

The scenario some pundits play out for this team is a 2-6ish start with a chance to get bowl eligible in November via Charlotte, Kentucky, Missouri, and Vanderbilt. It’s what Derek Dooley was able to accomplish in 2010 (against a worse version of Vanderbilt and a lifeless Ole Miss team), in part by turning the team over to the future with Tyler Bray. If Jeremy Pruitt’s first year ends up in a similar ditch, he may have to make a similar call to get it back out and bowl eligible.

Chemistry is tricky business, and there are some things you just can’t learn until you’re the head coach. I don’t know if this is the sixth-most-important question this year or the tenth or the first. But it’s in there somewhere. And when the Vols lose a couple of games – hopefully later than sooner – how Pruitt gets his hodgepodge of players to respond as a team will be important.

10 Questions for 2018

10. Which backups on the defensive line will be starters in 2019?

09. Can special teams make the difference in a coach’s first year?

08. What do we know about Tyson Helton’s offense from his time at USC?

07. Who’s the third/fourth wide receiver in an offense that will actually throw them the ball?

 

The best highlights of 2016 belonged to Jauan Jennings, and the best highlights of 2017 belonged to Marquez Callaway. When building the case for Tennessee’s success in 2018, they’re a great place to start.

Who’s next?

#7: Wide Receiver Depth

The Butch Jones offense threw the ball to the running back more than any other in the SEC.

In 2015 Von Pearson was Tennessee’s leader in targets at 15.4%, the lowest rate for a number one option for any team in the conference. By contrast, the Vols targeted their running backs on 21% of passes, highest in the league. Alvin Kamara was on the receiving end of 12.6% of those, the highest for any back in the SEC.

Kamara’s number increased to 14.4% in 2016, even as Josh Malone and Jauan Jennings established themselves as the top two options at receiver.  And last year it went up even more for John Kelly, getting a look on 15.8% of Tennessee’s passes (advanced stats from the always-awesome Football Study Hall).

What’s more, Tennessee tried to spread the ball around with tight ends as well. Backs and tight ends accounted for three of the Vols’ top six targets in 2015, three of the top five in 2016, and two of the top four last year. “Who is Tennessee’s number three receiver,” hasn’t mattered much during that span: Josh Smith had 12.4% of UT’s targets in 2015, 8.3% in 2016, and Josh Palmer was at 10.1% last year. Being Tennessee’s third option at receiver meant only nine catches for Palmer in 2017.

That will not be the case in Tyson Helton’s offense.

Last year USC’s four most-targeted players were all wide receivers, accounting for 67.1% of the balls Sam Darnold threw. 2015 was no different: top four targets all receivers, accounting for 65.9%. 2015 at Western Kentucky? Top four targets all receivers, accounting for 74%.

Jennings, Callaway, check. But who’s number three (and number four) is getting ready to matter a whole lot more.

Last year, Brandon Johnson was really number one. He was targeted on 18.5% of passes to lead the Vols, again a low number for a priority target. He was huge against UMass (7 for 123) and Vanderbilt (6 for 107), and was often a safety valve in an offense that needed a lot of that. If Jennings and Callaway return to health and form, he could be in for an even bigger year with less attention.

But Helton’s offense is a new lease on life for the entire receiving corps. And if history holds, one of Josh Palmer, Alontae Taylor, Latrell Williams, Tyler Byrd, Jordan Murphy, or Jacquez Jones is going to have a big year. And perhaps the best news is the entire position group contains zero seniors. What starts this fall could build into a much more dangerous passing game in 2019, especially if Guarantano wins the job.

10 Questions for 2018

10. Which backups on the defensive line will be starters in 2019?

09. Can special teams make the difference in a coach’s first year?

08. What do we know about Tyson Helton’s offense from his time at USC?

 

We’ve learned not to assume a promising coordinator will make a smooth transition. When Butch Jones fired John Jancek and hired Bob Shoop, we thought it was the good-to-great move that could push Tennessee to a championship. Instead, through a combination of bad fit and injuries, the Vols finished 78th in yards per play allowed in 2016 and 87th last season. You just never know.

Tennessee is paying its new offensive coordinator like he’s a fantastic hire: $1.2 million would have tied Brian Daboll and trailed only Matt Canada among offensive coordinators last fall. It’s a significant investment in what could be the most important hire for a defensive-minded head coach.

The Volunteer offense had a similar look and feel for almost 20 years. Phillip Fulmer became offensive coordinator in 1989, kicking off the program’s golden era with an SEC Championship behind Reggie Cobb and Chuck Webb. That ground game would remain a staple crop in Knoxville even when Fulmer ascended to head coach in 1993 and David Cutcliffe took over, pairing Heisman finalists at quarterback with Charlie Garner, James Stewart, Aaron Hayden, Jay Graham, and Jamal Lewis. When Cutcliffe and John Chavis were the two coordinators from 1995-98, Tennessee had the highest winning percentage in college football during that span.

Randy Sanders took over from 1999-2005, guiding one of the most memorable offenses in school history in 2001 and a pair of freshmen quarterbacks (and 1,000 yard rushers) to an SEC East title in 2004. When he was asked to step aside following a 5-6 campaign, Cutcliffe returned and the Vols were in Atlanta again in 2007. Fulmer and his top assistants put a quality product on the field almost every Saturday.

But the last ten years? The Clawfense infamously finished Fulmer off. Lane Kiffin found great success with Jonathan Crompton and Montario Hardesty in the second half of 2009, then left some nice pieces for Jim Chaney under Derek Dooley. Injuries cost the Vol offense much of its promise in 2011, and in 2012 another infamous coordinator hire made a star-studded offense ineffective when the defense was giving up so many points.

Butch Jones employed three different offensive coordinators in his five years, all running a different version of his system. The results were mixed at best: great when they had to be in 2016 under Josh Dobbs, and almost good enough to make even more noise in 2015. But the consistent theme of “almost” became “never” after the first few games of 2017 under Larry Scott, as the Vols finished with their lowest yards per play (4.77) since the Clawfense (4.49).

So now it’s Jeremy Pruitt, and Tyson Helton. What will we get for $1.2 million?

#8. Tyson Helton’s Offense

While I’m not sure it was ever made clear who was calling what percentage of the plays at Southern Cal, there’s still much to learn from what the Trojans did the last two years with Helton on staff. Bill Connelly’s 2018 USC preview offers this:

USC’s offense was mostly awesome. The Trojans were efficient (12th in success rate) and packed big-play potential (seventh in gains of 20-plus yards per game), and while we paid a lot of attention to Darnold’s turnover problems, especially during the run-up to the NFL draft, those concerns were a bit overblown — the Trojans had poor fumbles luck, and nearly half of Darnold’s interceptions came in the first three games.

Connelly also notes two problem areas: negative plays leading to an abundance of third-and-long, and issues scoring touchdowns in the red zone. USC’s touchdown percentage inside the 20 was 86th nationally last year (57.6%) and 52nd in 2016 (63.2%). But it’s not a problem Helton saw at Western Kentucky, which finished ninth in that stat (72.6%) in 2015.

USC went 21-6 the last two years, including a pair of high-profile losses to Alabama in the 2016 opener and Ohio State in last year’s Cotton Bowl. Helton’s offense was ineffective against Pruitt’s Tide defense, like most, and turned it over five times against the Buckeyes.

But there is much to like in the narrative. After a 1-3 start in 2016, USC finished with eight straight wins. To close the year they won at playoff-bound Washington 26-13 behind a strong performance from Sam Darnold (23-of-33 for 287 yards, 8.7 yards per attempt), then blasted rival UCLA 36-14. The Trojans then beat Notre Dame 45-27, and won a classic Rose Bowl over Penn State 52-49 with 615 yards, 453 of them from Darnold.

Last season they lost to Washington State by three, were blown out by Notre Dame, and fell to Ohio State. But the Trojans also beat Stanford twice with 73 combined points in winning the Pac-12. (For more on each performance, check out USC’s advanced statistical profile at Football Study Hall.)

There will be some questions, of course, about how much of USC’s success the last two years came via having the third pick in the draft at quarterback. The Trojans were 14th nationally last season in passing attempts (and yards per attempt), but their run game was often swallowed up in big games (1.92 yards per carry vs Texas, 2.45 vs Notre Dame, 1.58 vs Ohio State). Finding a better balance without an elite quarterback on Tennessee’s roster will be critical.

There’s also enough excitement about Helton’s work at Western Kentucky, and with Joe Webb as the quarterbacks coach at UAB, to believe he’s got plenty of tricks up his sleeve beyond a vanilla pro-style set. Vanilla, you’ll recall, was Fulmer’s flavor of choice. With Helton, we’ll once again hope it can turn into Superman ice cream before long.

 

10 Questions for 2018

10. Which backups on the defensive line will be starters in 2019?

09. Can special teams make the difference in a coach’s first year?

No one reads the special teams entry in a series like this: “We need a new punter, we get it.” But if you’re trying to spring an upset in year one? The third phase can make all the difference.

#9: Special Teams

In Tennessee’s upsets and near-misses in previous year ones, special teams played a critical role:

• You know all about Tennessee’s special teams miscues in the 2009 loss to Alabama in Lane Kiffin’s year, but don’t forget it was a successful onside kick that gave Tennessee a chance to win.
• Butch Jones and the 2013 Vols almost beat Georgia thanks to a blocked punt returned for a touchdown…
• …then did beat South Carolina thanks to a trio of made field goals from Michael Palardy, including the game-winner.

When you’re trying to close the talent gap, one of the quickest ways to make a difference on a fall Saturday is by making a play on special teams. So who’s going to do that for Tennessee this year?

Unfortunately, it won’t be Evan Berry and his better-to-kick-it-out-of-bounds average. But Ty Chandler did take one back to the house last year, finishing 33rd nationally in kick return average. Marquez Callaway housed a punt return in 2016; he was 28th nationally in punt return average in 2017. It may not be Evan Berry and Alvin Kamara, but there is plenty of potential in the return game.

The other side of special teams in a coach’s first year: don’t miss opportunities to score points. A good field goal kicker can make a big difference when the margin is so thin. Daniel Lincoln went 1-of-4 against Alabama in 2009, and also missed a field goal and an extra point in a four-point loss to Auburn; he rebounded to hit 10-of-11 in Derek Dooley’s first season. Meanwhile Palardy was 14-of-17 in 2013, the best kicking performance of the decade for Tennessee.

Last year Brent Cimaglia went 8-of-13, including a pair of costly misses against both Florida and Kentucky. Will he be the answer with Aaron Medley’s graduation? Or will Michigan transfer Ryan Tice get in on the action? A good way to add to frustration in any season, but especially a coach’s first, is to ride the kicker roller coaster all season.

Perhaps the biggest special teams issue will be replacing Trevor Daniel, who was second in the nation last year with 47.47 yards per punt. Freshman Paxton Brooks and Farragut sophomore Joe Doyle will be in the mix this fall.

It’s not sexy, but could make the difference between 5-7 and 6-6 this fall, or help Tennessee score a significant upset. And if the Vols find answers in Chandler, Callaway, Cimaglia, and whoever punts, they could all be around long enough for this to be a true strength in 2019.

10 Questions for 2018

#10: What backup defensive linemen in 2018 will be starting in 2019?

 

The coaches who hit it big at Tennessee’s rival institutions – Nick Saban, Urban Meyer, Kirby Smart – all validated themselves in year two. It’s a well-documented leap, one great coaches tend to make. The foundation Jeremy Pruitt inherits isn’t as strong as the ones those three built from: fewer bricks, more mess, etc. But for Tennessee, the 2019 goal also doesn’t have to be the College Football Playoff for Pruitt to be a year two success story.

We almost certainly won’t be entertaining any of these in 2018, but in 2019 Pruitt could validate himself by being the first Tennessee coach in a long time to:

• Win 10 games (2007)
• Win the SEC East (2007)
• Lose less than four games (2004)

While Butch Jones made progress from Derek Dooley’s tenure in total victories and ranked wins, these three barriers still stand. Jones’ teams flirted with them in 2015 and 2016, but were left with only a pair of 9-4 seasons. As such, there is still a step the Vols can make, now under Pruitt’s watch, between year one and competing for the national championship.

All of that to say: this team has a ton of questions in 2018. But we’ll start with the one that might be the biggest question mark for 2019, which could stand in the way of a breakthrough.

#10: Defensive Line Depth

A coaching change brings a fresh start, and a significant part of that is falling back on recruiting rankings for players who haven’t panned out yet. “They were ranked so high for a reason,” we tell ourselves, “and these new coaches, who are always better than our old coaches, can get the most out of them!”

The more optimistic you like to be, the more you’ll lean on this kind of thinking for players like Jarrett Guarantano and Drew Richmond. Lane Kiffin did this very thing for Jonathan Crompton and Montario Hardesty. But nowhere could it be more helpful for Tennessee this fall than on the defensive line.

In Tennessee’s celebrated 2015 recruiting class, three of the five highest-rated signees were defensive linemen. The other two were Preston Williams, who left the team, and Alvin Kamara, who’s doing alright for himself. Kahlil McKenzie elected to go early to the NFL.

But two remain: Kyle Phillips and Shy Tuttle. And in Tennessee’s 2016 class, the third highest-rated signee was Jonathan Kongbo.

Kongbo complicated my analogy by moving to outside linebacker, but in a 3-4 scheme there’s still some truth to the point.

So the Vols might get more production from one or all of these three under a new coaching staff. If so, awesome! That could go a long way toward the Vols having a successful 2018.

But it won’t matter in 2019, because all three of them are seniors.

So no matter how well guys like Phillips and Tuttle play, they aren’t long-term answers for the program. One can hope we don’t need too many of the backups this fall, but next year? Those guys will be the guys.

So who are those guys?

Darrell Taylor, a redshirt junior, could play a similar role to Kongbo; we’ll learn more about that this fall. Two options on the interior – Paul Bain and Alexis Johnson – are also seniors. So as it stands today, here are the returning, 2019-eligible players listed as defensive linemen on Tennessee’s roster:

• Deandre Johnson, Jr (2019)
• Darrell Taylor, R-Sr
• Matthew Butler, Jr
• Kivon Bennett, Jr
• Eric Crosby, Jr
• Ja’Quain Blakely, R-Jr

Darrell Taylor, who again could be better categorized as a linebacker in Pruitt’s scheme, had 27 tackles last year. Alexis Johnson had 14. The rest of those guys combined for seven.

This makes Tennessee’s 2018 signees – Greg Emerson, Brant Lawless, Emmit Gooden, plus Jordan Allen at DE/OLB – critical to next season’s success. How soon and how often will we see them this fall? And will one or more from the existing depth chart take a step up?

If the old recruiting stars pan out for Phillips, Tuttle, and Kongbo this fall, that’s great news for the short-term. But whether they do or not, Tennessee’s long-term future faces a significant question mark on the defensive line. We should get our first taste of the answers this fall.

 

We moved to Virginia today. It’s a new adventure for our family, with all of the emotions that come from leaving a place you love and going to a new place to love.

I started writing about the Vols the first time I moved to Virginia, 12 years ago. In United Methodist world this is the time of year when pastors move to new appointments, and my first was one county over from where we are now, back in 2006. Before that I lived in Knoxville my entire life. It was home. I was 24, single, and suddenly hours from anyone I knew. And so I started writing ten days after I started preaching, more than anything because I missed home.

In time, Ceres became home. And then Athens. And we are so full of hope to say the same thing about Pulaski.

But today, we lost one of my favorite things about Knoxville being home. One of the biggest reasons I loved and love Tennessee enough to write about it for so many years. And if you’re reading this, I bet he was one of your favorite reasons too.

John Ward is the only autograph I’ve ever sought out. I have a handful of others that someone got or bought for me, or passed down from one generation to the next. But the only one I’ve ever stood in line for – sports or otherwise – belonged to Tennessee’s play-by-play announcer when I grew up.

It was my junior year of high school at Foothills Mall in early 1998, before we knew what that year would become. One of my closest friends, then and now, is the son of Gaylon Hill, who played on the offensive line at Tennessee in the early 1970’s. And we stood in line together; him with some pictures of his dad, me with nothing. But I was more than happy to get one of Mr. Ward’s own pictures from the stack next to him.

I was embarrassingly nervous. But Mr. Ward cut the tension, first by remembering my friend’s dad. It’s an impressive thing to know an offensive lineman – a name you rarely call doing play-by-play – 15 or so years after the fact. It’s even more impressive when you consider he had been doing this for more than three decades.

After signing some pictures of Gaylon, Mr. Ward asked if my friend also wanted a photo of himself from the stack. To my unbelief, my friend said, “No thanks.” And John Ward, in perfect cadence, replied, “Why not?”

To me, it was those little things. We all remember the catchphrases and the big moments. But I adore the details. There’s a little chuckle in Jeff Powell’s run in the 1986 Sugar Bowl when he says, “Forty-five, forty…” as if to signify that he, too, can’t believe all of this is happening but it is. He also let the moments be the moments without over-inflating them. The way he says, “Thirty-four, twenty-seven“ after Aaron Hayden’s first touchdown at the Miracle at South Bend is perfect. Instead of spending two dozen words to speak to what a tremendous comeback this would be for Tennessee, he does it in one syllable.

And I remember all of this because so many of us not only turned down the TV and turned up the radio for all those years, but heard his voice on so many highlight tapes season after season. I have no doubt Mr. Ward would tell you there are many, many people at the Vol Network who helped make him great; they all certainly helped make it great to be a kid in East Tennessee in the 1990’s. I did play-by-play for Alcoa High School for three years in the early 2000’s, and would find random calls Ward made coming out of my mouth unintentionally when Alcoa did something similar because I’d seen those tapes and heard those calls so many times.

And that’s the thing, at least for my generation. The story was undeniably great. But the storyteller was so unbelievably good, we would’ve been lucky to have him regardless of how many wins he got to tell us about.

I believe in story. It’s what changes things. Even when we think we’d rather have the bullet points, it’s story that truly transforms. In my line of work, I find we sometimes think things would’ve been easier if God just gave us more lists. But what we get is story. And the character at its heart, even as a carpenter by trade, chooses to speak its language. Because a good story can save your soul.

So tonight, in an unfamiliar house in a place we’ll soon call home, I’m comforted yet again by the sounds of my childhood. They were some of Tennessee’s best stories. But a good story is only good if you tell it well.

And nobody told it like John Ward.

(Or, what was Tennessee worst at last year?)

That’s a long list, as you might remember. Or, if you’re like me, you might not. Tennessee’s 2017 season became about the future after the Georgia loss. And when that future headed toward change soon after, it was easier to pay attention to potential new coaches every Saturday than document what Team 121 was doing.

So there’s an obvious joke here about this year’s team being able to show improvement basically everywhere; the 2017 Vols didn’t excel at anything in particular. But, thanks to the data from Sports Source Analytics, we can pinpoint a number of more specific ways the 2018 Vols can be better. Out of 130 teams nationally, these are the five categories Tennessee was statistically worst at in 2017.

Big Plays: 123rd in 20+ yard plays in 2017 (38 in 12 games)

Don’t remember any big plays from the Tennessee offense after the Georgia Tech game? That’s because there weren’t many. Only 38 plays of 20+ yards for the Vol offense was the lowest total since the injury-plagued 2011 season (36). Under Butch Jones the Vols were more explosive every season until last year, going from 46 20+ yard plays in 2013 to 55, 63, and 79 in 2016. But the bottom fell out without Josh Dobbs and under new offensive coordinator Larry Scott, cutting UT’s explosiveness almost literally in half.

Where will big plays come from in 2018? For what it’s worth, Marquez Callaway excelled during Quinten Dormady’s early tenure, catching eight passes for 198 yards and three touchdowns in the first three games of the year. We’re also familiar with the work of Jauan Jennings, who caught 11 passes for 250 yards against Florida, Georgia, and Texas A&M in 2016. The Vols could also use more explosiveness in the ground game; you may recall John Kelly showing plenty of that in the early going (38 for 269, 7.1 yards per carry against Georgia Tech and Florida) before injuries up front and the general ineffectiveness of the offense eliminated much of the possibility. Explosiveness is one of the most important factors for success; the Vols have lots of room for improvement.

Run Defense: 121st in yards per carry allowed (5.43)

By contrast, Jeremy Pruitt’s Alabama defense led the nation in yards per carry allowed last season at 2.72. Tennessee’s number swells to 5.60 yards per carry allowed if you take out the Indiana State game, and it wasn’t just Georgia Tech (6.22) who did the damage. Lost in the flames of an assumed coaching search were 8+ yards per carry performances by Kentucky and Missouri. That’s the sort of number you expect to see only when facing elite competition: 2011 Arkansas, 2013 Auburn, and 2016 Alabama all went for 8+ against the Vols. But, alarmingly, so did Kentucky…in 2016 and 2017.

It was the worst performance against the run by a Tennessee defense in at least the last ten years, and probably far beyond that. Some old standbys – being more physical, defenders swarming to the ball, etc. – can help, but the Vols also need more size and more options up front. There’s some hope, especially if you still value recruiting stars, in the starting lineup, but little proven depth behind them.  We’ll see how big of an issue that becomes if teams continue to simply pound away at Tennessee late in the game. Again, nowhere to go but up.

Negative Plays: 121st in TFLs allowed (7.42 per game)

Not only did the Vols fail to create explosive plays, they were also one of the worst teams in the country in the opposite direction.

Tackles for loss allowed are one part offensive line and one part scheme. You can track strong (2013) and weak (2010, which was most of the 2013 line as freshmen) offensive lines fairly well through this stat alone. But if it felt like the Butch Jones offense went backwards more than usual, the stats back up the perception. After allowing only 5.25 TFLs per game in 2013 (37th nationally), the Vols were next-to-last in the nation in TFLs allowed in 2014 (7.77 allowed). The only offense behind them was, you guessed it, Wake Forest.

Even nationally competitive Vol squads in 2015 (7.08 TFLs per game allowed, 108th nationally) and 2016 (5.54, 53rd) went backwards more than their fair share, before things bottomed out last fall. I think the scheme change will help things by itself here: USC was 35th nationally in TFLs allowed last season. Under Tyson Helton the Vols will probably be doing less behind the line of scrimmage; hopefully that also translates to more explosive plays.

Third Down: 120th in conversion percentage (30.67%)

When you can’t be explosive and you go backwards a lot, you don’t do well on third down. Two years after being one of the best teams in the nation on third down in 2015 (45.97%, 21st nationally), the Vols were one of the worst teams in the nation on third down last fall.

For what it’s worth, Tennessee went 1-of-12 against both Georgia and Alabama on third down, meaning the Vols were at 34.5% against the rest of the schedule. Not great, but not the worst in the land either. The Vols were entirely ineffective against the Dawgs and Tide, which means yet again there’s plenty of room for progress this fall. But you’ll also find a 2-of-13 performance in there against Southern Miss. The entire offense has plenty of room to grow, and the best way to convert on third down is to be better on first and second down. But for the Vols to be successful in 2018, they’ll need to be better in crucial third down situations as well.

Interceptions: 119th nationally (5 in 12 games)

Some of this is a byproduct of teams getting ahead of the Vols and not needing to throw it; Tennessee saw only 279 pass attempts from the opposition, the fourth-fewest nationally. But that’s still just five interceptions in 279 tries, just 1.8% of passes. Even when taking a number of beatings in 2013 and 2011, the Vols still had interception rates above 2%.

Corner is one of the biggest question marks for this year’s team, and any group looking to overachieve will need to create turnovers to get there. Pruitt’s Bama defense had 19 interceptions last year; just putting guys in better position to make a play can help this defense show significant improvement over last year.