It was Tennessee’s turn in Bill Connelly’s 130-team previews yesterday, and it included this terrifying statistic:
You still need a quarterback who a) does his part and b) stays upright. Sophomore Jarrett Guarantano took an incredible 26 sacks on just 165 pass attempts…
We thought the line would be question number one with this team, but thanks to good health and a couple of nice pickups by Pruitt and company, it might even be an asset this season. That brings us back to the QB.
#3: First-Time Coach with a QB Competition
Guarantano’s season totals weren’t terrible: 61.9% completion rate, 7.2 yards per attempt. If we’re leaning into optimism – August is just around the corner, after all – there’s some hope that the play-calling will be an obvious benefit, because in several instances last fall they didn’t let Guarantano do much of anything downfield:
- Georgia: 6-of-7, 16 yards
- South Carolina: 11-of-18, 133 yards, most of which came on the final drive
- Alabama: 9-of-16, 44 yards
There’s a bit of chicken-egg here, because one reason they didn’t do more downfield was the sack rate. If he’s taking a sack on 16% of his dropbacks, you have to limit the dropbacks. You can give Guarantano the benefit of the doubt, because Butch Jones was overly conservative by default and the offensive line was a mess by the time Guarantano took over. But he’s still got to get rid of the ball sooner. Again, statistically there were some bright spots. He was 18-of-23 for 242 yards at Kentucky.
Likewise, Keller Chryst had some bright spots at Stanford. In 2016 he was 19-of-26 for 258 yards and three touchdowns in a 52-27 win at Oregon. But his completion percentage and yards per attempt suffered last season, finishing worse than Guarantano on both counts at 54.2% and 6.7 yards per attempt.
Whatever will separate one from the other isn’t in the past, but the present: a critical fall camp begins this weekend. But for a first-time coach, the burden isn’t just in picking the starter for week one. It’s handling the decision over the course of a potentially-rocky season.
What can Pruitt learn from the last three Vol coaches in their first season, all of whom dealt with some version of a quarterback controversy?
Lane Kiffin: Sticking with your guy
Most of us assumed it would not be Jonathan Crompton. How could it be, after a 2008 season including a 51.5% completion rate, negative TD/INT ratio, only 5.3 yards per attempt and stat lines like 8-of-23 at Auburn and 11-of-27 against Wyoming? That all of it happened in the season that got Fulmer fired made it even worse.
But then it was Crompton, who dominated then-FCS Western Kentucky in Kiffin’s opener before going 13-of-26 for 93 yards (3.6 ypa) and three picks in a 19-15 loss to UCLA. He added two more interceptions in Gainesville, then was 20-of-43 in a loss to Auburn that dropped the Vols to 2-3.
And then, as if from nowhere, brilliance.
From our 2009 Georgia postgame at Rocky Top Talk:
At halftime, I told my friend next to me in Z11 that I didn’t want to see Crompton’s numbers. There was a Raiders of the Lost Ark feel about it – “Shut your eyes! Don’t look at it!” – because what #8 did in the first half was so totally unnatural, I feared that seeing 12 of 15 for 205 yards and 3 TDs and then having my brain try to comprehend it might, in fact, make my face melt off.
Two weeks later he was 21-of-36 for 265 against the vaunted Crimson Tide. Against Memphis that year he went 21-of-27 for 331 and five touchdowns.
Kiffin stuck with his guns and his guy, and ended up being right on the money. Crompton’s transformation was remarkable, and that game against Georgia is still one of the most surprising things I’ve ever see at Neyland Stadium. There was no stud freshman option at the time; Kiffin stayed with Crompton over Nick Stephens. It’s easier to stay the course, at least into mid-October, when that’s the case. The stud freshman case study would come the following year:
Derek Dooley: Knowing when to make the change
Tyler Bray got some spot duty early, but Matt Simms was Tennessee’s starter in the first eight games of the 2010 season. For the year he completed 57.9% of his passes at 7.5 yards per attempt, only eight touchdowns but only five interceptions. And he was also playing behind a ton of freshmen on the offensive line, which was one reason to keep the wiry Bray safe on the sidelines.
Tennessee was 2-5 at South Carolina in their eventual SEC East title year. And Simms was, statistically, having a good day: 10-of-13 for 153 yards and a touchdown. But a 10-10 game at halftime quickly turned when Simms was sacked and fumbled on the second play of the third quarter, giving South Carolina a short field and a 17-10 lead.
And Dooley chose this moment to make the change.
I was in the stands that day, and furious at the time. Simms was playing well, the Vols had a chance to win…and Bray promptly threw a pick six two plays later. An easy November stretch of Memphis, Ole Miss, Kentucky, and Vanderbilt was on deck; the Vols could’ve made the change the following Saturday.
But Bray became the story before the game was over. Two teardrops to Denarius Moore and a touchdown to Gerald Jones tied the game with 13 minutes to play. Though the Vols would ultimately fall, that initial change – 9-of-15 for 159 yards – set the tone for a record-setting November. Bray averaged 308.5 yards per game, 9.3 yards per attempt, and threw a dozen touchdowns as the Vols won four straight to get bowl eligible. The hype was real.
We don’t credit Dooley for much, and the 2010 coaching staff still wears the scars of the LSU finish. But this season was his best coaching job, and riding Simms through the teeth of the schedule was the right move. I think the move to Bray came at the right time, and there was no turning back.
Butch Jones: Don’t change for the sake of change
Plenty of words have been spilled, and too many by me, over the Justin Worley/Josh Dobbs conversation. But in 2013, with Dobbs and Riley Ferguson rightfully headed for redshirts, Jones had a decision to make between Worley and Nathan Peterman.
Worley was the choice in the first three games, two wins and a blowout loss at Oregon. Worley completed 61.4% of his passes for 6.5 yards per attempt; not great, but nothing was going to beat Oregon anyway. At Florida the following week, Jones put the ball in the hands of Nathan Peterman.
It did not go well, as you might remember: 4-of-11 for five yards and two interceptions. I’m not sure if Worley was going to beat Florida anyway (the Gators won 31-17), but this was the wrong kind of change.
For Jeremy Pruitt, there is no stud freshman on the roster right now. Keller Chryst can only represent the present, and if Guarantano can’t win the job over the next month there will be plenty of questions about his ability to win the job next season. With a quarterback battle, there are always more questions than who’s getting their name in the starting lineup. How Pruitt handles the entire situation will be one of the biggest tests of his first year.
10 Questions for 2018
10. Which backups on the defensive line will be starters in 2019?
09. Can special teams make the difference in a coach’s first year?
08. What do we know about Tyson Helton’s offense from his time at USC?
07. Who’s the third/fourth wide receiver in an offense that will actually throw them the ball?
06. What about team chemistry with a first-time coach and a hodgepodge of players?
05. How much ground can the Vols gain in year one on the non-UGA SEC East?
04. Could the offensive line actually be a strength now?