Author Archives: Will Shelton

History suggested Tyson Helton would change the Vol passing attack, and we’ve seen it already in the first two games. Butch Jones’ offense targeted running backs more than any team in the SEC, essentially making the tailback the number three receiver. Not only has that changed dramatically in Helton’s offense – two catches for Tim Jordan, one for Jeremy Banks – a number one receiver has emerged in ways it never did in the last five years.

Marquez Callaway has 11 catches for 141 yards in the first two games. At this pace he’ll eclipse last season’s total – when he was the number one receiver in theory – by the end of the month (24 catches for 406 yards). And through the first two games, no other Vol has more than four receptions (Josh Palmer and Jordan Murphy).

We’ll see what happens with Jauan Jennings, the presumed top target going into last season and even this one by some. But so far, Callaway is the clear preference of Jarrett Guarantano. Sports Source Analytics has Callaway with seven catches for 115 yards (29th nationally) on first down, plus three for 15 and a pair of first downs on third down. The early returns show Callaway targeted early and often.

Callaway has 36.7% of Tennessee’s total receptions and 44% among wide receivers. We never saw percentages like those under Butch Jones:

Year	Receiver #1	Catches	Receiver #2	Catches
2017	Brandon Johnson	37	Marquez Callaway	24
2016	Josh Malone	50	Jauan Jennings	40
2015	Von Pearson	38	Josh Malone	31
2014	Pig Howard	54	Von Pearson	38
2013	Pig Howard	44	Marquez North	38

(Von Pearson played only 11 games in 2014)

You have to go back to the last two years under Derek Dooley to find true number one targets. Da’Rick Rogers easily stood out in 2011: 67 catches for 1,040 yards and nine touchdowns. The following year we remember Cordarrelle Patterson fondly, but many of his highlights were in the return game and on carries. Justin Hunter was easily the top target in the passing game with 73 catches for 1,083 yards to 46 for 778 for Patterson.

I’m not sure if this offense is built for Callaway to accumulate those kind of numbers. But he is clearly the number one option in an offense that’s going to receivers far more often than we’re used to. It’ll be interesting to see how his numbers change as defenses adjust to stop him, and if Guarantano can establish the same kind of rhythm with someone else. But through two games, Callaway is on track to be the kind of top target we haven’t seen in a long time.

 

When Derek Dooley was taking his first steps as Tennessee’s coach, the Vols faced an elite Oregon team in week two. Tennessee led 13-3 early and was still alive midway through the third quarter, down 20-13 but driving into Duck territory. Then Matt Simms was pick-sixed, and the floodgates opened: 21 additional fourth quarter points from Oregon turned a competitive game at halftime into a 35-point blowout.

Dooley noted Tennessee’s inability to handle adversity in the postgame: “I was real disappointed from then on (the pick six) with how we competed. You would have thought we were down 40 (instead of 14).” This became a recurring theme with Dooley’s teams: the head coach would (correctly) point out that they didn’t handle adversity well, while never making successful adjustments to help them do just that. The Vols folded against Florida two years later in much the same fashion, and Dooley was on the way out.

In his second full week on the job, Jeremy Pruitt noted Tennessee’s struggles when faced with adversity against West Virginia, specifically when getting denied thrice at the goal line in the second quarter as the offense was coming off the field on 4th-and-1 almost as a reflex. Even without being overly critical of the previous administration, it’s fair to say the Vols need to build confidence after a 4-8 season and a steep fall from the Top 10 in mid-October the year before. We all wanted to believe the new staff could make some of that happen right away; I’d imagine the players hoped for the same thing. Pruitt has the rings as a coordinator to sell that argument.

When it didn’t happen, and the Vols lost by 26 to West Virginia instead, players and fans alike had to reset their baseline. It was just one data point – and hey, maybe West Virginia will turn out to have as much in common with 2010 Oregon as possible – but it was the first impression, and it didn’t inspire as much confidence as we were wishing for.

Today was the second data point. And while you won’t be talking about what the Vols did against ETSU when the season is over, today was important in beginning to rebuild that confidence. How did the Vols do?

Defensively, very well. ETSU gained only 194 yards on 58 snaps (3.34 yards per play) and were just 2-of-15 on third down. The Vols grabbed a pair of interceptions, a particularly welcome sight for freshman Bryce Thompson after facing West Virginia the week before. Tennessee still struggled to get pressure on the quarterback, but gave hope that what we saw last week had plenty to do with the opponent. As I write, Will Grier is 20-of-25 for 292 yards and three touchdowns against Youngstown State.

Jarrett Guarantano was sharp again: 8-of-13 for 154 yards, hitting a couple of deep balls to Josh Palmer and Marquez Callaway. The latter followed up his 6-for-63 performance from last week with 5-for-78. Last year only two Vol receivers (Callaway and Brandon Johnson) finished the year with more than 200 yards; Callaway is off to another strong start and is fast establishing himself as Tennessee’s top target.

The running backs all had individual moments that popped. But the Vols weren’t as effective as you’d like against FCS competition: Tim Jordan (15-for-65) and Jeremy Banks (13-for-62) were okay, but the run blocking didn’t inspire the confidence we’re looking for.

The good news: UTEP is next, 0-12 last year and a 30-10 victim to FCS Northern Arizona last week. There’s more confidence to be built and more fine-tuning the Vols will need to face the Gators.

One early difference between Pruitt and Dooley (and Butch): the new guy admitted his own mistakes from last week, noting poor clock management at the end of the second quarter gave West Virginia a shot at three more points. Confidence is only, always earned. The new coach is doing it one play at a time too.

 

Even in a 26-point loss, Tennessee’s performance against West Virginia felt like an improvement over what we saw at the end of last season, both in the stadium yesterday and in conversation today. This is, of course, what we want to believe; Jeremy Pruitt has the immediate benefit of things being blamed on Butch Jones if they go south.  But just how much better was Tennessee, relatively speaking, yesterday?

The Vols averaged 4.78 yards per play, almost identical to the 4.77 they averaged last season, which was the lowest total since 2008. But the returns were incredibly diminishing last year: Tennessee averaged 6.09 yards per play in the first three games, then just 4.28 in the last nine. Six times in those final nine games the Vols averaged less than 4.5 yards per play. Yesterday was progress, even if small.

It never helps when you’re faced with 4th-and-25 on your opening drive. Tennessee allowed just one sack, which was definitely progress. But the Vols still allowed a dozen tackles for loss, a bad start for a team that gave up 7.42 per game in 2017, 121st nationally. The good news: last year the Vols lost an average of 4.1 yards per TFL. Yesterday Tennessee lost just 2.6 yards per TFL, which is especially good considering we lost 10 on the first snap of the game and five more two plays later. The Vols still have issues getting a push at the line – see 1st-and-goal at the 1 – but most of their losses were of the non-catastrophic variety.

(This is the bar when you’re 4-8 with a new head coach: hey, it wasn’t a catastrophe!)

The Vols gained 14 yards in their first 15 snaps, then 287 in their last 48 (5.98 yards per play). Again, not great…but better. The Vols still lacked explosiveness – 13 plays of 10+ yards – but were slightly better than last season when they averaged 11 such plays per game (120th nationally). There are questions as to if the Vols can block well enough to create more opportunities downfield, but the offense still moved the ball in spite of that potential problem.

Tennessee’s offense was competent.

West Virginia’s was excellent.

The Mountaineers’ 8.97 yards per play is the most against a Tennessee defense since Marcus Mariota and Oregon unleashed 9.04 in Butch Jones’ third game five years ago. We hope that turns out to be a good comparison: the 2013 Vols rebounded to defend well enough to have a chance to win against Georgia, South Carolina, Vanderbilt, etc. That initial performance was both about a new scheme and a Heisman quarterback.

Was this one? That’s the biggest question to me going forward. Will Grier made a couple of throws yesterday that were among the best I’ve seen in person from a college quarterback. It helps when you’re facing very little pressure.

The guys on the back end are young, raw, and got the final exam on the first day of class. They’ll get better. The guys up front are seniors, and there are few options behind them to begin with. Tennessee will get more from Trevon Flowers and Bryce Thompson. But it has to get more from its defensive line and pass rush. The challenge may not be as great the rest of the season; that by itself might prevent another catastrophic performance in stopping the pass. But the Vols have to find a competent pass rush to help their freshmen defensive backs.

We’ll learn a lot when the Vols face the Gators in three weeks, and because of Tennessee’s schedule and who follows Florida, it’s going to feel like an awful lot is on that game. This team is going to get better. Will they get better fast enough for Florida? Stay tuned.

 

Let’s go.

How many points will Tennessee have to score to win? In six years at West Virginia, Dana Holgorsen is 53-37. In those 37 losses, the Mountaineers still averaged 24.9 points per game. By comparison, Tennessee went 34-29 the last five years with Butch Jones at the helm. In those 29 losses the Vols averaged only 17.4 points.

You’re not beating West Virginia 14-10. Even a relatively strong performance from Jeremy Pruitt’s defense right out of the gate will probably still require Tennessee’s offense to score more points than it mustered in most of its games last season. After a strong opening against Georgia Tech and Indiana State, the Vols scored more than 24 points just once the rest of 2017 (26 at Kentucky).

Tennessee will need to do something well, then do it consistently on offense to outscore West Virginia. The most likely answer there, as you’d imagine with this match-up, is via the ground game.

How much can Tennessee rely on its ground game? Last year West Virginia was 1-4 when allowing 200+ yards on the ground. The Mountaineers were 99th nationally in yards per carry allowed last season, and were especially susceptible on first down: 5.18 yards per carry allowed, and 48 runs of 10+ yards surrendered (127th nationally). Big plays were readily available on the ground when the defense didn’t know what to expect. Last season West Virginia ranked 100th or worse in 10+ yard runs allowed, 20+ yard runs allowed, etc. all the way through 50+ yard runs allowed.

It’s incredibly important for Tennessee to stay on schedule in this game, not only to protect the quarterback, but to put West Virginia’s defense in positions it struggled to stop last year. This feeds directly into the Vols showing improvement in the things they were very worst at last season: creating big plays (123rd nationally in 20+ yard gains), but also tackles for loss allowed (121st) which leads to a poor third down conversion rate (120th). The Vols must go backward far less to create more 3rd-and-3’s and fewer 3rd-and-7’s. And they have to capitalize in the ground game with both consistency and explosiveness against West Virginia.

A few incompletions can make a huge difference. On the other side of the ball, I think the most telling stat on West Virginia is this: the Mountaineers were 0-6 when completing less than 60% of their passes last year, 7-0 when completing more. Some of the sub-60% numbers include Will Grier’s absence, who was 6-of-8 when he went down against Texas. But in the three losses when he played the whole game:

• Virginia Tech: 31-of-53 (58.5%)
• TCU: 25-of-45 (55.6%)
• Oklahoma State: 20-of-42 (47.6%)

With the possible exception of Oklahoma State, Grier wasn’t bad by any means in these games. He averaged 7-8 yards per attempt against good defenses from Virginia Tech and TCU, with three touchdowns and only one pick in both games. Both teams only sacked him twice; Oklahoma State just once. But all three did enough to disrupt the passing game to win; VT and TCU won by identical 31-24 scores, while Oklahoma State won the 50-39 shootout they’re built for. The Vols under Pruitt are far more likely to follow the Hokie/Horned Frog model.

The path to victory won’t be easy, and there’s so much we simply don’t know about this Tennessee team. But there is indeed a path: find repeated success on the ground and make Grier just uncomfortable enough. Don’t expect to beat West Virginia 14-10, and I’m not sure the Vols are built to beat them 50-39. But opportunity, as they say, is now here. And I’m very excited to see what we’ve got.

Go Vols.

 

For a few of us, the 2018 season kicked over the weekend (Duquesne at UMass baby!). For the rest of us, now it’s game week: everyone’s undefeated, and everyone can dream.

Tennessee’s dreams have been some combination of strange and brief for a long time now. Standing in the way this fall are a Top 20 opener, annual rivalries with the present-and-perhaps-future kings of college football, and the annoying habit of drawing one of the best teams from the SEC West that isn’t Alabama. All of this on the heels of the program’s first eight-loss season and, even more, the worst S&P+ rating of any SEC team when it made its most recent coaching change. Another dream might meet another quick death this fall. The potential for adding another year on that tab might make us wonder if it’s healthy to dream at all.

Along those lines, the last ten years have made me less attached to the head coach, though I’m not sure one can totally escape such attachments no matter where you fall on the spectrum from fan to fanatic. For me it’s one part self-preservation: Lane Kiffin, Derek Dooley, and Butch Jones were all exhausting to defend in their own ways.

But at the same time, what has given me the most comfort and confidence in the last nine months is the presence of Phillip Fulmer. He is, for sure, a coach I was incredibly attached to in all of our younger days. But it’s also because of something I remember most from when those days came to an end:

(from November 3, 2008 at SouthEastern Sports Blog)

Doug Matthews was on Sports Talk earlier today, and made this point: Nick Saban is a fantastic coach, but he’s not personally invested in the University of Alabama the way that Phillip Fulmer was and is invested in the University of Tennessee. Not even close.

Urban Meyer’s not. Neither is Les Miles or Mark Richt.

And the next man who comes in here won’t be either.

Meyer and Miles have won National Championships. And we absolutely hope whoever comes in here next will do the same.

But what we gave away today we won’t find again.

Butch Jones and Lane Kiffin were from somewhere else, Derek Dooley the son of Georgia royalty. Jeremy Pruitt is from the opposite of here.

But there remains no one more personally invested in Tennessee Football than the person who hired him.

There are never any guarantees; we already asked Fulmer to leave once. But as the Vols lost both games and trust in record numbers last fall, he was the only choice, and in all the right ways. I don’t know if or when the Vols will get back to winning like the 1990’s again. But I do find it easier to trust something good is possible with someone so personally invested back in the decision-making chair. That much of what we lost is found again. And it’s valuable, at least to me.

We do all this every year because we love the Vols. Even when they don’t win. But now it’s a little easier to have faith, or at least it feels a little more right. And Fulmer hired hope, an unproven risk/reward coach even though safe and easy options were on the board. The ultimate goal hasn’t changed for us, because it certainly hasn’t changed for him. And it’s one Pruitt knows quite well as an assistant coach.

All of that is down the road, but we can dream its dream. This is Week One. This week we don’t have to worry about how long we’ve been gone. This week everything is new, just as it feels the right kind of old.

And this week is about all of us pulling in the same direction, something we haven’t enjoyed for more than a few short weeks in a very long time. I don’t know how far Jeremy Pruitt and the 2018 Vols will go this fall. He’ll earn some level of trust along the way. But after a season when the rope slipped through our fingers faster than ever, then threatened to unravel entirely? Now we get a chance to pick it back up again, together in more than name only. This is the week to grab the rope. Set your feet. And by God pull.

It’s here.

This week, in Charlotte, in Knoxville, and wherever you listen…it’s football time in Tennessee.

Did you know the Vols are 500-to-1 to win the national championship? That’s life-changing money, boys!

Listen, I’ve already got the basketball Vols at 25-to-1 to win it all. Those winnings are set aside to get right with the debt collectors and the Lord, so it’s all limousine ridin’ and jet flyin’ with the rest. My wife had already been telling me I should pay less attention to Butch Jones and more to Rick Barnes long before last fall went right down the drain. And when Admiral dunked that ball at Rupp Arena, I asked her right then and there if we could name our first child Private First Class. She did not go for that, but she’s got an SEC Championship t-shirt in the closet, by God. And you’d better clear out some room for the Pruitt collection.

I mean, with Phillip at the helm, it don’t much matter who the coach is. Only took us a decade to figure that one out. And whenever CPF (ADPF?) decides to retire to Wyoming with a fistful of championships, we can simplify the search process. If you want to involve the common man and the common fan, you don’t have to schedule an on-campus riot to do it. Just get one of us a spot on the search committee. Then have the prospective new AD start down their list of hypothetical coaching candidates. If our first response is, “Who’s that?”, “(Fulmerized) no!”, or “…wait, what?”, you don’t hire that person. Something that simple could’ve saved us from Derek Dooley, Butch Jones, and Greg Schiano.

But we don’t need saving anymore. Fulmer’s bringing championships to the entire athletic department. You do know the only reason we didn’t win the NCAA Tournament is because we got beat by God, right? But only by one point! If Sister Jean’s reward is a Final Four appearance for a mid-major, I know we’re due at least six national championships. She turned 99 this week, and I hope that lady has lots of time left on this earth. But I hope she also knows that in heaven, it’s John Ward and Bill Anderson on the call.

Look man, Jeremy Pruitt got the Tennessee job, got out there ‘cruitin’, then held Clemson’s offense to 2.69 yards per play in his spare time. Remember how excited you were when we signed Kyle Phillips, Shy Tuttle, Jonathan Kongbo, Darrin Kirkland, Nigel Warrior…I mean, basically our entire defense? Now think about them in this guy’s hands. What’s the record for fewest first downs in a season? Wait, is it the Clawfense?

Then on offense, nevermind who’s playing quarterback, this year they’ll have actual coaching! Imagine that! And Florida State fans still believe they’d’ve won the title in ’98 if Chris Weinke was healthy, but he’s not even good enough to coach our QBs! But really, here’s all the coaching they need: get the ball to the guy who wore Gator-skin boots to the postgame, then caught a hail mary, then told the truth about our previous administration IN LANGUAGE THE INTERIM COACH COULD UNDERSTAND. Get the ball to Jauan, and Weinke won’t have the only Heisman on the property. It doesn’t even matter that we could start all four-and-five-stars on the offensive line. One of them is Trey Smith, and he’s been waiting all year to hit somebody. Good luck, West Virginia.

And look, I fully respect a man who refuses to acknowledge the reality of the situation atop his head. I’m a Holgo man. West Virginians are our Appalachian brethren. But the Mountaineers are Diet Tennessee: looks the same, tastes kinda the same but mostly worse, zero national championships.

Then we get Randy Sanders’s ETSU program, who will change their mascot to the screen pass by the end of the year if they haven’t already. But I think they could take UTEP, who went 0-12 last year but only lost 11 of them by at least 14 points.

When I close my eyes and dream, I see the four game winning streak we should be on against the Gators. Instead, we lost once because we wet the bed in the red zone, once because we gave up a 4th-and-17, and once on a hail mary. And that’s just the Cliffs Notes. But one in a row is better than none in a row. Do you know the last Tennessee coach to beat the Gators on his very first try? Phillip By God Fulmer. And never you mind that new coach in Gainesville, the same truth still applies: they ain’t no good. Vols by 30, unless we decide to win 20-17 in overtime as a tribute. And don’t worry, that means we can pay tribute to 1998 against Georgia by keeping them out of the end zone altogether. But I do appreciate the Dawgs helping us move along with our coaching search last fall.

Then it’s Auburn, who beat Alabama last year because the Tide had 1st-and-10 inside the Auburn 40 on their last three drives and scored zero points. That’s not Jeremy’s fault! Sounds like a Saban problem to me. I’m sure their new intern can solve that one. If you don’t think the Pruitt-for-Butch trade makes Tennessee over Alabama the lock of the century, I don’t know what to tell you. How many life championships are Bama fans claiming by now? I can’t keep giving out these winners for free!

We’ve owed Will Muschamp a punch in the face for like six years now, and finally have the coaching staff that will encourage that sort of behavior, metaphorically speaking, instead of being satisfied that we’re close enough to put our hands on them but let’s see what happens in the fourth quarter. Then we play the 49ers, which might’ve been a good game back in the 80’s but I’m not sold on the Garoppolo kid yet. He does have the advantage of moving as far away as physically possible from Tom Brady, but we’ll have to wait and see.

Kentucky? Wait til basketball season. Missouri? I’ve been hoping we’d schedule the Cowboys for years, this is a much easier way to get a piece of Derek Dooley. Vanderbilt? Swept them in basketball too! It don’t matter who we see in Atlanta since we’ll’ve already beaten the two best teams in the division. But in the playoff, I’m pulling for Ohio State, Florida Atlantic, and of course, Wake Forest. Since we’re guaranteed a shot at Butch Jones and Derek Dooley already, I figure we can just go ahead and cleanse our palate altogether.

15-0, National Champions, boys. Then we’re going after that single-season college basketball wins record, which is currently held by three John Calipari teams (or two teams and an asterisk). Get your tattoos now, boys. And don’t tell my wife I already did.

Hey look, only took me nine years to learn about GIFs!

via GIPHY

 

 

 

 

September 1 will be Tennessee’s 13th season opener against a ranked non-conference foe (thanks, as always, to the folks behind Tennessee’s media guide). Fun fact: five of those were against UCLA, from the first one in 1967 through Peyton Manning’s debut in 1994. The Vols are 5-4-3 in those games overall, most recently splitting a pair with California in 2006-07.

But when you’ve struggled like the Vols in the last decade, you don’t need a ranked opener to raise the stakes. Tennessee has had plenty of tense first tests in the last few years, many of them made so by uncertainty surrounding the head coach. Jeremy Pruitt will get the best kind of uncertainty – new coach, first game – against West Virginia. It’s the first impression, but it’s also a Top 20 opponent some are projecting far higher than that.

How will the first game set the tone for Jeremy Pruitt and 2018? How does it compare to some of the other season openers in recent memory in terms of anticipation and anxiety going in?

Level 1: The Sure Thing

• 2004 UNLV, 1999 & 2002 Wyoming, FCS Opponents

Lane Kiffin, Derek Dooley, and Butch Jones all opened their UT coaching careers with FCS opponents. In FBS/Division 1-A, you have to go back to the special jersey night game against UNLV to find a sure-thing opponent that actually played itself out that way. UAB the following year certainly felt like one going in.

Level 2: The Pseudo-Sure Thing

• 2016 Appalachian State, 2015 Bowling Green, 2008 UCLA, 2007 California

A successful season, or at least a successful finish in the prior year, often creates overconfidence in the season opener. With Butch Jones it was capable mid-majors who were overlooked in part because of massive Week 2 opportunities in Oklahoma and Bristol. Phillip Fulmer’s last two teams opened on the road with Pac-12 opponents, one the Vols torched the year before and one the Clawfense was expected to torch. The lesson: never overlook a team with a pulse in week one.

Level 3: I Have No Idea

• 2000 Southern Miss, 1998 Syracuse, 1994 UCLA

You have to go back almost two decades, but all three of these were some form of rebuild/reload against ranked opponents, two of them on the road. The ’94 Vols were replacing their starting tailback, both wide receivers, and the Heisman runner-up at quarterback. The ’98 Vols were replacing the next Heisman runner-up, along with several key defensive pieces. And in 2000, most of the pieces from that championship run were gone. It was a testament to the strength of Tennessee’s program that the Vols went 2-1 in these games, all of them close. Tennessee’s performance in these openers didn’t necessarily color the entire season (other than Jerry Colquitt’s injury in ’94), but did create a first impression that was ultimately reliable. West Virginia probably goes in this tier: the game shouldn’t be confused for a toss-up with the Vols at +9.5, but we know so little about Tennessee in the midst of starting over I feel like there’s more to learn here than just the outcome.

Level 4: I’m Nervous

• 2017 Georgia Tech, 2014 Utah State, 2003 Fresno State

Disappointing season the year before + opponent you feel like you should beat but not blow out + additional anxiety you know will come if you lose = these openers, the rare kind that can create more anxiety than anticipation. The Vols were solid against Fresno in ’03, surprisingly good against Chuckie Keeton and Utah State in ’14, and we all remember the full spectrum of emotions that came with the Butch Jones experience last year. The stakes for losing a game like this are so high it creates a, “Why did we schedule these guys?” mentality, even though those decisions are made far before we know what kind of anxiety/anticipation we’ll be feeling leading up to kickoff.

Level 5: Everything is on the line!

• 2012 NC State, 2006 California

The ol’ let’s make decisions about the future of the program opener, when a disastrous season the year before and a capable opponent in the first game create a tense situation. The Vols went 2-0 in these games, though one was a false positive. Looking at things this way gives me additional appreciation for what the Vols did to Cal in 2006. It’s the fantasy we’d like to come true every time we play a significant opponent in the season opener; fortunately the West Virginia game doesn’t carry the same burden of the fate of the program at stake.

It’s only the first impression, but it will be a meaningful one for Jeremy Pruitt and this Tennessee team. Where does it rank for you in terms of anticipation and anxiety?

 

A good question came out of this week’s return of the Gameday on Rocky Top Podcast: when did you have the bigger wait-and-see mentality, right now or five years ago?

It’s no sin to say you need to see it to believe it with Jeremy Pruitt; after the last ten years, we all might need a little sight to go with our faith. But how does that compare to the way we felt on the eve of Butch Jones’ first season?

Neither being Tennessee’s first choice, Jones and Pruitt also inherited more years of disappointment than their infamous predecessors in the last ten years. The additional years of disappointment under Jones might make us more wait-and-see with Pruitt by default; the Vols have now been down for ten years instead of five. Butch Jones also had the benefit of a more-celebrated group of commitments earlier in his tenure. Some of this was via name and location: early recruiting wins on guys like Jalen Hurd and Todd Kelly Jr. dramatically changed the conversation on Jones, giving one the impression that he could turn this program around with talent like that in the fold. Pruitt’s early set of commitments during his first fall camp is still impressive, but Jackson Lampley is the only in-state/legacy blue chipper on board at the moment; the new staff’s highest-rated commits are from Georgia and North Carolina.

However – and due, of course, to Jones’ recruiting – it feels like Tennessee easily has more talent on the roster right now than in 2013. Five years ago we knew the Vols had a sensational offensive line, but little else. Ultimately in that season three of Tennessee’s five leading receivers – Marquez North, Jason Croom, Josh Smith – were freshmen, and after injury freshman Josh Dobbs took over at quarterback. Cam Sutton and Malik Foreman were day one starters in the secondary, Corey Vereen was a factor on the defensive line…you get the idea. The talent that left after 2012 and some of the recruiting failures at the end of Dooley’s tenure left the cupboard far more bare than it seems right now.

Of course, the guys in the cupboard right now just went 4-8 last year and lost five times by 17+ points.

When you hire someone with six years of experience as a head coach, you know more going in. Butch Jones had done a good job on the mid-major level, and most of the initial questions with him were how he would recruit at the level Tennessee needed. We thought Jones could get us to at least nine wins, and he did…it just turned out that was also his ceiling. With Pruitt, the basement is deeper – he’s never done it, maybe he’s just a great coordinator but a lousy head coach – but the ceiling also seemed higher on day one. We applauded Phillip Fulmer when Pruitt was the choice for not playing it safe with Les Miles or easy with Tee Martin, but going with someone with more risk/reward.

So going into this first year, I find myself a little less wait-and-see with Pruitt than I was with Jones, even if I’m still significantly more wait-and-see than at any other point in my three decades of fandom. Dooley wasn’t a great hire and we knew it at the time, but anyone would’ve galvanized us after Kiffin, and in 2010 the Vols were only three years removed from a division title. For at least the year one prospects, I’m slightly more optimistic right now than I was five years ago.

You can see it a little bit from Vegas too. Right now the Vols are 9.5-point underdogs in a neutral site game against #20 West Virginia. In Jones’ first year, the Vols were 28-point underdogs at #2 Oregon. There’s plenty of room between #2 and #20, but +28 is the second-biggest underdog the Vols have been in the last five years (and maybe ever); Alabama was +36 last year (and covered). This time five years ago I was just worried about trying to beat Western Kentucky.

There’s not a right or wrong answer here, but there’s enough good happening with Pruitt and just enough good Jones did in recruiting to make me slightly less wait-and-see right now than I was five years ago. It’s starting over, but it might not be from scratch. We’ll see.