Author Archives: Will Shelton

Even in a 26-point loss, Tennessee’s performance against West Virginia felt like an improvement over what we saw at the end of last season, both in the stadium yesterday and in conversation today. This is, of course, what we want to believe; Jeremy Pruitt has the immediate benefit of things being blamed on Butch Jones if they go south.  But just how much better was Tennessee, relatively speaking, yesterday?

The Vols averaged 4.78 yards per play, almost identical to the 4.77 they averaged last season, which was the lowest total since 2008. But the returns were incredibly diminishing last year: Tennessee averaged 6.09 yards per play in the first three games, then just 4.28 in the last nine. Six times in those final nine games the Vols averaged less than 4.5 yards per play. Yesterday was progress, even if small.

It never helps when you’re faced with 4th-and-25 on your opening drive. Tennessee allowed just one sack, which was definitely progress. But the Vols still allowed a dozen tackles for loss, a bad start for a team that gave up 7.42 per game in 2017, 121st nationally. The good news: last year the Vols lost an average of 4.1 yards per TFL. Yesterday Tennessee lost just 2.6 yards per TFL, which is especially good considering we lost 10 on the first snap of the game and five more two plays later. The Vols still have issues getting a push at the line – see 1st-and-goal at the 1 – but most of their losses were of the non-catastrophic variety.

(This is the bar when you’re 4-8 with a new head coach: hey, it wasn’t a catastrophe!)

The Vols gained 14 yards in their first 15 snaps, then 287 in their last 48 (5.98 yards per play). Again, not great…but better. The Vols still lacked explosiveness – 13 plays of 10+ yards – but were slightly better than last season when they averaged 11 such plays per game (120th nationally). There are questions as to if the Vols can block well enough to create more opportunities downfield, but the offense still moved the ball in spite of that potential problem.

Tennessee’s offense was competent.

West Virginia’s was excellent.

The Mountaineers’ 8.97 yards per play is the most against a Tennessee defense since Marcus Mariota and Oregon unleashed 9.04 in Butch Jones’ third game five years ago. We hope that turns out to be a good comparison: the 2013 Vols rebounded to defend well enough to have a chance to win against Georgia, South Carolina, Vanderbilt, etc. That initial performance was both about a new scheme and a Heisman quarterback.

Was this one? That’s the biggest question to me going forward. Will Grier made a couple of throws yesterday that were among the best I’ve seen in person from a college quarterback. It helps when you’re facing very little pressure.

The guys on the back end are young, raw, and got the final exam on the first day of class. They’ll get better. The guys up front are seniors, and there are few options behind them to begin with. Tennessee will get more from Trevon Flowers and Bryce Thompson. But it has to get more from its defensive line and pass rush. The challenge may not be as great the rest of the season; that by itself might prevent another catastrophic performance in stopping the pass. But the Vols have to find a competent pass rush to help their freshmen defensive backs.

We’ll learn a lot when the Vols face the Gators in three weeks, and because of Tennessee’s schedule and who follows Florida, it’s going to feel like an awful lot is on that game. This team is going to get better. Will they get better fast enough for Florida? Stay tuned.

 

Let’s go.

How many points will Tennessee have to score to win? In six years at West Virginia, Dana Holgorsen is 53-37. In those 37 losses, the Mountaineers still averaged 24.9 points per game. By comparison, Tennessee went 34-29 the last five years with Butch Jones at the helm. In those 29 losses the Vols averaged only 17.4 points.

You’re not beating West Virginia 14-10. Even a relatively strong performance from Jeremy Pruitt’s defense right out of the gate will probably still require Tennessee’s offense to score more points than it mustered in most of its games last season. After a strong opening against Georgia Tech and Indiana State, the Vols scored more than 24 points just once the rest of 2017 (26 at Kentucky).

Tennessee will need to do something well, then do it consistently on offense to outscore West Virginia. The most likely answer there, as you’d imagine with this match-up, is via the ground game.

How much can Tennessee rely on its ground game? Last year West Virginia was 1-4 when allowing 200+ yards on the ground. The Mountaineers were 99th nationally in yards per carry allowed last season, and were especially susceptible on first down: 5.18 yards per carry allowed, and 48 runs of 10+ yards surrendered (127th nationally). Big plays were readily available on the ground when the defense didn’t know what to expect. Last season West Virginia ranked 100th or worse in 10+ yard runs allowed, 20+ yard runs allowed, etc. all the way through 50+ yard runs allowed.

It’s incredibly important for Tennessee to stay on schedule in this game, not only to protect the quarterback, but to put West Virginia’s defense in positions it struggled to stop last year. This feeds directly into the Vols showing improvement in the things they were very worst at last season: creating big plays (123rd nationally in 20+ yard gains), but also tackles for loss allowed (121st) which leads to a poor third down conversion rate (120th). The Vols must go backward far less to create more 3rd-and-3’s and fewer 3rd-and-7’s. And they have to capitalize in the ground game with both consistency and explosiveness against West Virginia.

A few incompletions can make a huge difference. On the other side of the ball, I think the most telling stat on West Virginia is this: the Mountaineers were 0-6 when completing less than 60% of their passes last year, 7-0 when completing more. Some of the sub-60% numbers include Will Grier’s absence, who was 6-of-8 when he went down against Texas. But in the three losses when he played the whole game:

• Virginia Tech: 31-of-53 (58.5%)
• TCU: 25-of-45 (55.6%)
• Oklahoma State: 20-of-42 (47.6%)

With the possible exception of Oklahoma State, Grier wasn’t bad by any means in these games. He averaged 7-8 yards per attempt against good defenses from Virginia Tech and TCU, with three touchdowns and only one pick in both games. Both teams only sacked him twice; Oklahoma State just once. But all three did enough to disrupt the passing game to win; VT and TCU won by identical 31-24 scores, while Oklahoma State won the 50-39 shootout they’re built for. The Vols under Pruitt are far more likely to follow the Hokie/Horned Frog model.

The path to victory won’t be easy, and there’s so much we simply don’t know about this Tennessee team. But there is indeed a path: find repeated success on the ground and make Grier just uncomfortable enough. Don’t expect to beat West Virginia 14-10, and I’m not sure the Vols are built to beat them 50-39. But opportunity, as they say, is now here. And I’m very excited to see what we’ve got.

Go Vols.

 

For a few of us, the 2018 season kicked over the weekend (Duquesne at UMass baby!). For the rest of us, now it’s game week: everyone’s undefeated, and everyone can dream.

Tennessee’s dreams have been some combination of strange and brief for a long time now. Standing in the way this fall are a Top 20 opener, annual rivalries with the present-and-perhaps-future kings of college football, and the annoying habit of drawing one of the best teams from the SEC West that isn’t Alabama. All of this on the heels of the program’s first eight-loss season and, even more, the worst S&P+ rating of any SEC team when it made its most recent coaching change. Another dream might meet another quick death this fall. The potential for adding another year on that tab might make us wonder if it’s healthy to dream at all.

Along those lines, the last ten years have made me less attached to the head coach, though I’m not sure one can totally escape such attachments no matter where you fall on the spectrum from fan to fanatic. For me it’s one part self-preservation: Lane Kiffin, Derek Dooley, and Butch Jones were all exhausting to defend in their own ways.

But at the same time, what has given me the most comfort and confidence in the last nine months is the presence of Phillip Fulmer. He is, for sure, a coach I was incredibly attached to in all of our younger days. But it’s also because of something I remember most from when those days came to an end:

(from November 3, 2008 at SouthEastern Sports Blog)

Doug Matthews was on Sports Talk earlier today, and made this point: Nick Saban is a fantastic coach, but he’s not personally invested in the University of Alabama the way that Phillip Fulmer was and is invested in the University of Tennessee. Not even close.

Urban Meyer’s not. Neither is Les Miles or Mark Richt.

And the next man who comes in here won’t be either.

Meyer and Miles have won National Championships. And we absolutely hope whoever comes in here next will do the same.

But what we gave away today we won’t find again.

Butch Jones and Lane Kiffin were from somewhere else, Derek Dooley the son of Georgia royalty. Jeremy Pruitt is from the opposite of here.

But there remains no one more personally invested in Tennessee Football than the person who hired him.

There are never any guarantees; we already asked Fulmer to leave once. But as the Vols lost both games and trust in record numbers last fall, he was the only choice, and in all the right ways. I don’t know if or when the Vols will get back to winning like the 1990’s again. But I do find it easier to trust something good is possible with someone so personally invested back in the decision-making chair. That much of what we lost is found again. And it’s valuable, at least to me.

We do all this every year because we love the Vols. Even when they don’t win. But now it’s a little easier to have faith, or at least it feels a little more right. And Fulmer hired hope, an unproven risk/reward coach even though safe and easy options were on the board. The ultimate goal hasn’t changed for us, because it certainly hasn’t changed for him. And it’s one Pruitt knows quite well as an assistant coach.

All of that is down the road, but we can dream its dream. This is Week One. This week we don’t have to worry about how long we’ve been gone. This week everything is new, just as it feels the right kind of old.

And this week is about all of us pulling in the same direction, something we haven’t enjoyed for more than a few short weeks in a very long time. I don’t know how far Jeremy Pruitt and the 2018 Vols will go this fall. He’ll earn some level of trust along the way. But after a season when the rope slipped through our fingers faster than ever, then threatened to unravel entirely? Now we get a chance to pick it back up again, together in more than name only. This is the week to grab the rope. Set your feet. And by God pull.

It’s here.

This week, in Charlotte, in Knoxville, and wherever you listen…it’s football time in Tennessee.

Did you know the Vols are 500-to-1 to win the national championship? That’s life-changing money, boys!

Listen, I’ve already got the basketball Vols at 25-to-1 to win it all. Those winnings are set aside to get right with the debt collectors and the Lord, so it’s all limousine ridin’ and jet flyin’ with the rest. My wife had already been telling me I should pay less attention to Butch Jones and more to Rick Barnes long before last fall went right down the drain. And when Admiral dunked that ball at Rupp Arena, I asked her right then and there if we could name our first child Private First Class. She did not go for that, but she’s got an SEC Championship t-shirt in the closet, by God. And you’d better clear out some room for the Pruitt collection.

I mean, with Phillip at the helm, it don’t much matter who the coach is. Only took us a decade to figure that one out. And whenever CPF (ADPF?) decides to retire to Wyoming with a fistful of championships, we can simplify the search process. If you want to involve the common man and the common fan, you don’t have to schedule an on-campus riot to do it. Just get one of us a spot on the search committee. Then have the prospective new AD start down their list of hypothetical coaching candidates. If our first response is, “Who’s that?”, “(Fulmerized) no!”, or “…wait, what?”, you don’t hire that person. Something that simple could’ve saved us from Derek Dooley, Butch Jones, and Greg Schiano.

But we don’t need saving anymore. Fulmer’s bringing championships to the entire athletic department. You do know the only reason we didn’t win the NCAA Tournament is because we got beat by God, right? But only by one point! If Sister Jean’s reward is a Final Four appearance for a mid-major, I know we’re due at least six national championships. She turned 99 this week, and I hope that lady has lots of time left on this earth. But I hope she also knows that in heaven, it’s John Ward and Bill Anderson on the call.

Look man, Jeremy Pruitt got the Tennessee job, got out there ‘cruitin’, then held Clemson’s offense to 2.69 yards per play in his spare time. Remember how excited you were when we signed Kyle Phillips, Shy Tuttle, Jonathan Kongbo, Darrin Kirkland, Nigel Warrior…I mean, basically our entire defense? Now think about them in this guy’s hands. What’s the record for fewest first downs in a season? Wait, is it the Clawfense?

Then on offense, nevermind who’s playing quarterback, this year they’ll have actual coaching! Imagine that! And Florida State fans still believe they’d’ve won the title in ’98 if Chris Weinke was healthy, but he’s not even good enough to coach our QBs! But really, here’s all the coaching they need: get the ball to the guy who wore Gator-skin boots to the postgame, then caught a hail mary, then told the truth about our previous administration IN LANGUAGE THE INTERIM COACH COULD UNDERSTAND. Get the ball to Jauan, and Weinke won’t have the only Heisman on the property. It doesn’t even matter that we could start all four-and-five-stars on the offensive line. One of them is Trey Smith, and he’s been waiting all year to hit somebody. Good luck, West Virginia.

And look, I fully respect a man who refuses to acknowledge the reality of the situation atop his head. I’m a Holgo man. West Virginians are our Appalachian brethren. But the Mountaineers are Diet Tennessee: looks the same, tastes kinda the same but mostly worse, zero national championships.

Then we get Randy Sanders’s ETSU program, who will change their mascot to the screen pass by the end of the year if they haven’t already. But I think they could take UTEP, who went 0-12 last year but only lost 11 of them by at least 14 points.

When I close my eyes and dream, I see the four game winning streak we should be on against the Gators. Instead, we lost once because we wet the bed in the red zone, once because we gave up a 4th-and-17, and once on a hail mary. And that’s just the Cliffs Notes. But one in a row is better than none in a row. Do you know the last Tennessee coach to beat the Gators on his very first try? Phillip By God Fulmer. And never you mind that new coach in Gainesville, the same truth still applies: they ain’t no good. Vols by 30, unless we decide to win 20-17 in overtime as a tribute. And don’t worry, that means we can pay tribute to 1998 against Georgia by keeping them out of the end zone altogether. But I do appreciate the Dawgs helping us move along with our coaching search last fall.

Then it’s Auburn, who beat Alabama last year because the Tide had 1st-and-10 inside the Auburn 40 on their last three drives and scored zero points. That’s not Jeremy’s fault! Sounds like a Saban problem to me. I’m sure their new intern can solve that one. If you don’t think the Pruitt-for-Butch trade makes Tennessee over Alabama the lock of the century, I don’t know what to tell you. How many life championships are Bama fans claiming by now? I can’t keep giving out these winners for free!

We’ve owed Will Muschamp a punch in the face for like six years now, and finally have the coaching staff that will encourage that sort of behavior, metaphorically speaking, instead of being satisfied that we’re close enough to put our hands on them but let’s see what happens in the fourth quarter. Then we play the 49ers, which might’ve been a good game back in the 80’s but I’m not sold on the Garoppolo kid yet. He does have the advantage of moving as far away as physically possible from Tom Brady, but we’ll have to wait and see.

Kentucky? Wait til basketball season. Missouri? I’ve been hoping we’d schedule the Cowboys for years, this is a much easier way to get a piece of Derek Dooley. Vanderbilt? Swept them in basketball too! It don’t matter who we see in Atlanta since we’ll’ve already beaten the two best teams in the division. But in the playoff, I’m pulling for Ohio State, Florida Atlantic, and of course, Wake Forest. Since we’re guaranteed a shot at Butch Jones and Derek Dooley already, I figure we can just go ahead and cleanse our palate altogether.

15-0, National Champions, boys. Then we’re going after that single-season college basketball wins record, which is currently held by three John Calipari teams (or two teams and an asterisk). Get your tattoos now, boys. And don’t tell my wife I already did.

Hey look, only took me nine years to learn about GIFs!

via GIPHY

 

 

 

 

September 1 will be Tennessee’s 13th season opener against a ranked non-conference foe (thanks, as always, to the folks behind Tennessee’s media guide). Fun fact: five of those were against UCLA, from the first one in 1967 through Peyton Manning’s debut in 1994. The Vols are 5-4-3 in those games overall, most recently splitting a pair with California in 2006-07.

But when you’ve struggled like the Vols in the last decade, you don’t need a ranked opener to raise the stakes. Tennessee has had plenty of tense first tests in the last few years, many of them made so by uncertainty surrounding the head coach. Jeremy Pruitt will get the best kind of uncertainty – new coach, first game – against West Virginia. It’s the first impression, but it’s also a Top 20 opponent some are projecting far higher than that.

How will the first game set the tone for Jeremy Pruitt and 2018? How does it compare to some of the other season openers in recent memory in terms of anticipation and anxiety going in?

Level 1: The Sure Thing

• 2004 UNLV, 1999 & 2002 Wyoming, FCS Opponents

Lane Kiffin, Derek Dooley, and Butch Jones all opened their UT coaching careers with FCS opponents. In FBS/Division 1-A, you have to go back to the special jersey night game against UNLV to find a sure-thing opponent that actually played itself out that way. UAB the following year certainly felt like one going in.

Level 2: The Pseudo-Sure Thing

• 2016 Appalachian State, 2015 Bowling Green, 2008 UCLA, 2007 California

A successful season, or at least a successful finish in the prior year, often creates overconfidence in the season opener. With Butch Jones it was capable mid-majors who were overlooked in part because of massive Week 2 opportunities in Oklahoma and Bristol. Phillip Fulmer’s last two teams opened on the road with Pac-12 opponents, one the Vols torched the year before and one the Clawfense was expected to torch. The lesson: never overlook a team with a pulse in week one.

Level 3: I Have No Idea

• 2000 Southern Miss, 1998 Syracuse, 1994 UCLA

You have to go back almost two decades, but all three of these were some form of rebuild/reload against ranked opponents, two of them on the road. The ’94 Vols were replacing their starting tailback, both wide receivers, and the Heisman runner-up at quarterback. The ’98 Vols were replacing the next Heisman runner-up, along with several key defensive pieces. And in 2000, most of the pieces from that championship run were gone. It was a testament to the strength of Tennessee’s program that the Vols went 2-1 in these games, all of them close. Tennessee’s performance in these openers didn’t necessarily color the entire season (other than Jerry Colquitt’s injury in ’94), but did create a first impression that was ultimately reliable. West Virginia probably goes in this tier: the game shouldn’t be confused for a toss-up with the Vols at +9.5, but we know so little about Tennessee in the midst of starting over I feel like there’s more to learn here than just the outcome.

Level 4: I’m Nervous

• 2017 Georgia Tech, 2014 Utah State, 2003 Fresno State

Disappointing season the year before + opponent you feel like you should beat but not blow out + additional anxiety you know will come if you lose = these openers, the rare kind that can create more anxiety than anticipation. The Vols were solid against Fresno in ’03, surprisingly good against Chuckie Keeton and Utah State in ’14, and we all remember the full spectrum of emotions that came with the Butch Jones experience last year. The stakes for losing a game like this are so high it creates a, “Why did we schedule these guys?” mentality, even though those decisions are made far before we know what kind of anxiety/anticipation we’ll be feeling leading up to kickoff.

Level 5: Everything is on the line!

• 2012 NC State, 2006 California

The ol’ let’s make decisions about the future of the program opener, when a disastrous season the year before and a capable opponent in the first game create a tense situation. The Vols went 2-0 in these games, though one was a false positive. Looking at things this way gives me additional appreciation for what the Vols did to Cal in 2006. It’s the fantasy we’d like to come true every time we play a significant opponent in the season opener; fortunately the West Virginia game doesn’t carry the same burden of the fate of the program at stake.

It’s only the first impression, but it will be a meaningful one for Jeremy Pruitt and this Tennessee team. Where does it rank for you in terms of anticipation and anxiety?

 

A good question came out of this week’s return of the Gameday on Rocky Top Podcast: when did you have the bigger wait-and-see mentality, right now or five years ago?

It’s no sin to say you need to see it to believe it with Jeremy Pruitt; after the last ten years, we all might need a little sight to go with our faith. But how does that compare to the way we felt on the eve of Butch Jones’ first season?

Neither being Tennessee’s first choice, Jones and Pruitt also inherited more years of disappointment than their infamous predecessors in the last ten years. The additional years of disappointment under Jones might make us more wait-and-see with Pruitt by default; the Vols have now been down for ten years instead of five. Butch Jones also had the benefit of a more-celebrated group of commitments earlier in his tenure. Some of this was via name and location: early recruiting wins on guys like Jalen Hurd and Todd Kelly Jr. dramatically changed the conversation on Jones, giving one the impression that he could turn this program around with talent like that in the fold. Pruitt’s early set of commitments during his first fall camp is still impressive, but Jackson Lampley is the only in-state/legacy blue chipper on board at the moment; the new staff’s highest-rated commits are from Georgia and North Carolina.

However – and due, of course, to Jones’ recruiting – it feels like Tennessee easily has more talent on the roster right now than in 2013. Five years ago we knew the Vols had a sensational offensive line, but little else. Ultimately in that season three of Tennessee’s five leading receivers – Marquez North, Jason Croom, Josh Smith – were freshmen, and after injury freshman Josh Dobbs took over at quarterback. Cam Sutton and Malik Foreman were day one starters in the secondary, Corey Vereen was a factor on the defensive line…you get the idea. The talent that left after 2012 and some of the recruiting failures at the end of Dooley’s tenure left the cupboard far more bare than it seems right now.

Of course, the guys in the cupboard right now just went 4-8 last year and lost five times by 17+ points.

When you hire someone with six years of experience as a head coach, you know more going in. Butch Jones had done a good job on the mid-major level, and most of the initial questions with him were how he would recruit at the level Tennessee needed. We thought Jones could get us to at least nine wins, and he did…it just turned out that was also his ceiling. With Pruitt, the basement is deeper – he’s never done it, maybe he’s just a great coordinator but a lousy head coach – but the ceiling also seemed higher on day one. We applauded Phillip Fulmer when Pruitt was the choice for not playing it safe with Les Miles or easy with Tee Martin, but going with someone with more risk/reward.

So going into this first year, I find myself a little less wait-and-see with Pruitt than I was with Jones, even if I’m still significantly more wait-and-see than at any other point in my three decades of fandom. Dooley wasn’t a great hire and we knew it at the time, but anyone would’ve galvanized us after Kiffin, and in 2010 the Vols were only three years removed from a division title. For at least the year one prospects, I’m slightly more optimistic right now than I was five years ago.

You can see it a little bit from Vegas too. Right now the Vols are 9.5-point underdogs in a neutral site game against #20 West Virginia. In Jones’ first year, the Vols were 28-point underdogs at #2 Oregon. There’s plenty of room between #2 and #20, but +28 is the second-biggest underdog the Vols have been in the last five years (and maybe ever); Alabama was +36 last year (and covered). This time five years ago I was just worried about trying to beat Western Kentucky.

There’s not a right or wrong answer here, but there’s enough good happening with Pruitt and just enough good Jones did in recruiting to make me slightly less wait-and-see right now than I was five years ago. It’s starting over, but it might not be from scratch. We’ll see.

 

We learned quite a bit about Derek Dooley and, even in one year, Lane Kiffin. But I’m not sure we learned a whole lot from them. Kiffin wasn’t here long enough for that, and even three years for a hire like Dooley tends to play out in a predictable pattern: this probably won’t work –> yep, this isn’t working –> okay, let’s move on. Even as some of us spent lots of time arguing injuries and inheritance meant we needed most of that third year to make an informed decision, the final verdict on Dooley was the same as the quick one.

But with Butch Jones, we had five years. You don’t stick around five years at a place without a tangible hope that it might work. And along the way, you get a chance to learn not only about the head coach, but from them.

It’s easy for many to simplify the final verdict about Butch Jones as some form of lol nope; there are plenty of intern jokes out there. I’m far more interested in what we learned from Butch Jones:  what did the last five years teach us as Tennessee fans?

And how will that impact what we’re getting ready to learn from and about Jeremy Pruitt?

#1: What Will We Learn About Jeremy Pruitt?

When you grow up with the late Majors and Fulmer teams, you learn that Tennessee wins except, for frustrating lengths of time, against Alabama or Florida. When “scoreboard!” is your friend, you value it. A lot.

The last ten years have forced us to look beyond something so simple; the Vols are 62-63 since 2008. With Jones specifically, the scoreboard was just favorable enough, just long enough to allow us to hold on to the idea of something more. The Vols were almost bowl eligible in 2013, almost beat Florida in 2014, almost did far more in 2015, and still almost made the Sugar Bowl in 2016. Almost.

Playing the almost game long enough makes you step back and look at the bigger picture. In this year’s Gameday on Rocky Top preseason magazine, we took a closer look at Butch Jones in close games: 24 of his 55 contests against FBS foes were decided by one possession, and 15 of those were decided on the final play. Those are extraordinary numbers, and even when you win your fair share of them – Jones was 8-11 in one-possession games and 5-6 on the final play before things went south last season, finishing at 10-14 by one-possession and 6-9 on the last snap – too many close games will drive your fan base crazy.

I feel like this is what I learned, more than anything else, from Butch Jones: every play matters. Not so you can make more of them in the fourth quarter to earn an unsustainable winning percentage in close games. But so you can avoid, as much as realistically possible, playing close games altogether.

Don’t Waste Opportunities

In Butch’s first year, with Justin Worley and an all-star offensive line, the Vols were 37th nationally in tackles for loss allowed per game (stats from Sports Source Analytics). The next four years, including two with championship-caliber teams, the Vols were 125th, 108th, 53rd, and 121st. The offense went backwards an awful lot. Wasted plays behind the line of scrimmage became far too normal. Along with infamously freezing in crucial situations – 2014 Florida, 2015 Oklahoma, 2017 Florida – play-for-play, the offense failed to take advantage as much as it should have.

Butch Jones could have won a couple more close games and still been the coach here, or lost a couple more and been fired in 2015. But in the final analysis, it was an inability to take appropriate advantage on every play that cost Jones and his teams.

The temptation will be to measure Jeremy Pruitt by simply the wins and losses: six wins is a job well done, five not so much. But one thing I learned from watching Butch Jones the last five years is how much every play is worth. It’s why I find myself gravitating to things like S&P+ (and KenPom) more and more.

Don’t Waste Memories

This sport is about the outcomes, and the moments they create. Memories remain college football’s most valuable asset, for fans and for a coach seeking to earn another year. We wrote in the aftermath of the Georgia loss last year that Jones’ inability to create memories that lasted hurt him more than anything. His best wins are dragged down by the eventual disappointment of the seasons they came in.

Jeremy Pruitt will have the opportunity to make memories this fall. If one of those six wins is the Gators, we’re going to have a good time. Those memories feel like they get made in dramatic fourth quarter finishes. But the best way to truly make them is to focus on the ol’ process: being as efficient as possible on every snap.

What Will Progress Look Like?

We’ll measure Pruitt by the wins and the memories, but coming off last season there is plenty of progress to be made play-for-play. And especially now, how close the Vols are coming can be a great indicator.

Consider this: in Tennessee’s golden age from 1989-2001, the Vols lost five games by 17 points (three possessions) or more: Alabama in 1989, Florida in 1991, 1994, and 1995, and Nebraska in 1997. All five of those teams were in the Top 10, three in the Top 5.

Then the Vols jarringly lost four times by 17+ points in 2002, but at least all four of those teams were in the Top 20. In the next four years Tennessee lost one game each season by that margin, three to Top 10 teams and to #11 Arkansas in 2006.

In 2007, the Vols lost to #5 Florida and unranked Alabama by 17+. In 2008 it was #4 Florida, #2 Alabama, and unranked South Carolina, and Fulmer was out.

Kiffin had two such losses (unranked Ole Miss and #12 Virginia Tech). Dooley had nine in three years, though six of them came to teams in the Top 10. And Butch Jones had a dozen in five years. The first nine were against Top 10 teams – the schedule wasn’t kind, no doubt – but at the end of last season, the Vols were trounced by Missouri, #20 LSU, and Vanderbilt.

So after only five three-possession losses in 13 years, an aberration in 2002, then one-per-year through 2006, the Vols have lost by 17+ points 28 times in the last 11 years. Seven of those came to unranked teams.

Just being competitive won’t make a whole lot of memories. But in 2018, it would absolutely be progress.

Every play matters. And I think this coaching staff, with its pedigree from the top down, will do a better job understanding that, and calling the game accordingly.

There will be a bunch of little things we learn about Pruitt this fall, and an even longer list he’ll learn himself. It’ll take more time than this season to figure out what Jeremy Pruitt’s teams will teach us as fans. But we learned from Butch Jones’ teams that almost is especially painful and being satisfied with close games and the mysterious “we have a chance to win” is a treadmill in disguise. Every season is relative, telling its own story. But every play matters. I look forward to seeing how much Jeremy Pruitt can make them matter, this fall and beyond.

10 Questions for 2018

10. Which backups on the defensive line will be starters in 2019?

09. Can special teams make the difference in a coach’s first year?

08. What do we know about Tyson Helton’s offense from his time at USC?

07. Who’s the third/fourth wide receiver in an offense that will actually throw them the ball?

06. What about team chemistry with a first-time coach and a hodgepodge of players?

05. How much ground can the Vols gain in year one on the non-UGA SEC East?

04. Could the offensive line actually be a strength now?

03. Who wins the QB battle, and how will Pruitt manage it throughout the year?

02. Could two freshmen start at corner?

 

Practice starts today. The quarterbacks will be the lead story, and the offensive line is moving from weakness to strength. My biggest on-the-field concern for 2018 is at corner.

It’s the one place where playing a true freshman seems like the option with the highest ceiling. And while it’s exciting to see a player like Alontae Taylor in his first action as a Volunteer, the lack of experienced options could create major problems for Tennessee this fall.

#2: Cornerback

Last year Tennessee was 126th nationally in rushing yards allowed per game and third in passing yards allowed per game. But neither number foreshadows much in 2018. Phil Steele picked Tennessee to have the most improved run defense this season; the Vols have the personnel up front, if healthy, to be significantly better there. But the Vols were third in passing yards allowed last season because they played Georgia Tech in the opener, then played from behind the rest of the year.

The Vols saw only 279 pass attempts last fall. Only Air Force saw fewer (243) among teams playing 12 games. Tennessee was okay in completion percentage (55.2%) and yards per attempt allowed (7.0), but again, not many teams had to go deep to beat the Vols. Georgia was 7-of-17 for 84 yards and rolled 41-0. Tennessee had just 3.08 passes defended (intercepted or broken up) per game, 117th nationally. Just five interceptions last season was the lowest season total at UT in at least the last 10 years.

And then the Vols graduated Justin Martin, Emmanuel Moseley, the little-used Shaq Wiggins, and saw Rashaan Gaulden turn pro.

The good news in the secondary is at safety, where the talent has been disproportionately skewed for several seasons. Nigel Warrior might be Tennessee’s best defender (and I wouldn’t be surprised if Pruitt finds ways to move him around, just as Monte Kiffin did with Eric Berry, to maximize his usefulness and protect some of the younger guys back there). Todd Kelly Jr. is Tennessee’s veteran presence, the longest-tenured starter. He knows a thing or two about contributing as a freshman after 33 tackles and three interceptions in 2014. Micah Abernathy has recorded 150 tackles in the last two years. Even Maleik Gray was Tennessee’s third-highest rated recruit in 2017 at safety, and Theo Jackson saw limited action last fall.

But at corner, the options are far more unproven. Shawn Shamburger led returning options with 19 tackles last season. Marquill Osborne and Baylen Buchanan had nine between them. Osborne in particular is a name fans hope can flip the switch via the new coaching staff. Cheyenne Labruzza is another option among returning players, but position-switch options like Tyler Byrd and Carlin Fils-aime didn’t generate much noise in the spring.

So the new faces – specifically Alontae Taylor and Bryce Thompson – will get their chances early and often. They were two of Pruitt’s three highest rated recruits. And we’ve seen previous Vol coaches throw new pieces into the fire in year one secondaries, most notably Cam Sutton in 2013 and Janzen Jackson in 2009.

There are options, young and old, and with Pruitt’s background you have to feel like he can get more out of the pieces to make a better whole.

The bad news: Tennessee opens with West Virginia.

10 Questions for 2018

10. Which backups on the defensive line will be starters in 2019?

09. Can special teams make the difference in a coach’s first year?

08. What do we know about Tyson Helton’s offense from his time at USC?

07. Who’s the third/fourth wide receiver in an offense that will actually throw them the ball?

06. What about team chemistry with a first-time coach and a hodgepodge of players?

05. How much ground can the Vols gain in year one on the non-UGA SEC East?

04. Could the offensive line actually be a strength now?

03. Who wins the QB battle, and how will Pruitt manage it throughout the year?

 

It was Tennessee’s turn in Bill Connelly’s 130-team previews yesterday, and it included this terrifying statistic:

You still need a quarterback who a) does his part and b) stays upright. Sophomore Jarrett Guarantano took an incredible 26 sacks on just 165 pass attempts…

We thought the line would be question number one with this team, but thanks to good health and a couple of nice pickups by Pruitt and company, it might even be an asset this season. That brings us back to the QB.

#3: First-Time Coach with a QB Competition

Guarantano’s season totals weren’t terrible: 61.9% completion rate, 7.2 yards per attempt. If we’re leaning into optimism – August is just around the corner, after all – there’s some hope that the play-calling will be an obvious benefit, because in several instances last fall they didn’t let Guarantano do much of anything downfield:

• Georgia: 6-of-7, 16 yards
• South Carolina: 11-of-18, 133 yards, most of which came on the final drive
• Alabama: 9-of-16, 44 yards

There’s a bit of chicken-egg here, because one reason they didn’t do more downfield was the sack rate. If he’s taking a sack on 16% of his dropbacks, you have to limit the dropbacks. You can give Guarantano the benefit of the doubt, because Butch Jones was overly conservative by default and the offensive line was a mess by the time Guarantano took over. But he’s still got to get rid of the ball sooner. Again, statistically there were some bright spots. He was 18-of-23 for 242 yards at Kentucky.

Likewise, Keller Chryst had some bright spots at Stanford. In 2016 he was 19-of-26 for 258 yards and three touchdowns in a 52-27 win at Oregon. But his completion percentage and yards per attempt suffered last season, finishing worse than Guarantano on both counts at 54.2% and 6.7 yards per attempt.

Whatever will separate one from the other isn’t in the past, but the present: a critical fall camp begins this weekend. But for a first-time coach, the burden isn’t just in picking the starter for week one. It’s handling the decision over the course of a potentially-rocky season.

What can Pruitt learn from the last three Vol coaches in their first season, all of whom dealt with some version of a quarterback controversy?

Lane Kiffin: Sticking with your guy

Most of us assumed it would not be Jonathan Crompton. How could it be, after a 2008 season including a 51.5% completion rate, negative TD/INT ratio, only 5.3 yards per attempt and stat lines like 8-of-23 at Auburn and 11-of-27 against Wyoming? That all of it happened in the season that got Fulmer fired made it even worse.

But then it was Crompton, who dominated then-FCS Western Kentucky in Kiffin’s opener before going 13-of-26 for 93 yards (3.6 ypa) and three picks in a 19-15 loss to UCLA. He added two more interceptions in Gainesville, then was 20-of-43 in a loss to Auburn that dropped the Vols to 2-3.

And then, as if from nowhere, brilliance.

From our 2009 Georgia postgame at Rocky Top Talk:

At halftime, I told my friend next to me in Z11 that I didn’t want to see Crompton’s numbers.  There was a Raiders of the Lost Ark feel about it – “Shut your eyes!  Don’t look at it!” – because what #8 did in the first half was so totally unnatural, I feared that seeing 12 of 15 for 205 yards and 3 TDs and then having my brain try to comprehend it might, in fact, make my face melt off.

Two weeks later he was 21-of-36 for 265 against the vaunted Crimson Tide. Against Memphis that year he went 21-of-27 for 331 and five touchdowns.

Kiffin stuck with his guns and his guy, and ended up being right on the money. Crompton’s transformation was remarkable, and that game against Georgia is still one of the most surprising things I’ve ever see at Neyland Stadium. There was no stud freshman option at the time; Kiffin stayed with Crompton over Nick Stephens. It’s easier to stay the course, at least into mid-October, when that’s the case. The stud freshman case study would come the following year:

Derek Dooley: Knowing when to make the change

Tyler Bray got some spot duty early, but Matt Simms was Tennessee’s starter in the first eight games of the 2010 season. For the year he completed 57.9% of his passes at 7.5 yards per attempt, only eight touchdowns but only five interceptions. And he was also playing behind a ton of freshmen on the offensive line, which was one reason to keep the wiry Bray safe on the sidelines.

Tennessee was 2-5 at South Carolina in their eventual SEC East title year. And Simms was, statistically, having a good day: 10-of-13 for 153 yards and a touchdown. But a 10-10 game at halftime quickly turned when Simms was sacked and fumbled on the second play of the third quarter, giving South Carolina a short field and a 17-10 lead.

And Dooley chose this moment to make the change.

I was in the stands that day, and furious at the time. Simms was playing well, the Vols had a chance to win…and Bray promptly threw a pick six two plays later. An easy November stretch of Memphis, Ole Miss, Kentucky, and Vanderbilt was on deck; the Vols could’ve made the change the following Saturday.

But Bray became the story before the game was over. Two teardrops to Denarius Moore and a touchdown to Gerald Jones tied the game with 13 minutes to play. Though the Vols would ultimately fall, that initial change – 9-of-15 for 159 yards – set the tone for a record-setting November. Bray averaged 308.5 yards per game, 9.3 yards per attempt, and threw a dozen touchdowns as the Vols won four straight to get bowl eligible. The hype was real.

We don’t credit Dooley for much, and the 2010 coaching staff still wears the scars of the LSU finish. But this season was his best coaching job, and riding Simms through the teeth of the schedule was the right move. I think the move to Bray came at the right time, and there was no turning back.

Butch Jones: Don’t change for the sake of change

Plenty of words have been spilled, and too many by me, over the Justin Worley/Josh Dobbs conversation. But in 2013, with Dobbs and Riley Ferguson rightfully headed for redshirts, Jones had a decision to make between Worley and Nathan Peterman.

Worley was the choice in the first three games, two wins and a blowout loss at Oregon. Worley completed 61.4% of his passes for 6.5 yards per attempt; not great, but nothing was going to beat Oregon anyway. At Florida the following week, Jones put the ball in the hands of Nathan Peterman.

It did not go well, as you might remember: 4-of-11 for five yards and two interceptions. I’m not sure if Worley was going to beat Florida anyway (the Gators won 31-17), but this was the wrong kind of change.

For Jeremy Pruitt, there is no stud freshman on the roster right now. Keller Chryst can only represent the present, and if Guarantano can’t win the job over the next month there will be plenty of questions about his ability to win the job next season. With a quarterback battle, there are always more questions than who’s getting their name in the starting lineup. How Pruitt handles the entire situation will be one of the biggest tests of his first year.

10 Questions for 2018

10. Which backups on the defensive line will be starters in 2019?

09. Can special teams make the difference in a coach’s first year?

08. What do we know about Tyson Helton’s offense from his time at USC?

07. Who’s the third/fourth wide receiver in an offense that will actually throw them the ball?

06. What about team chemistry with a first-time coach and a hodgepodge of players?

05. How much ground can the Vols gain in year one on the non-UGA SEC East?

04. Could the offensive line actually be a strength now?