Author Archives: Will Shelton

Saturday was Tennessee’s 18th loss as a favorite of at least a touchdown since 1985, which is as far back as the data at Covers.com goes. That’s roughly one every other season, a pace that hasn’t slowed in the last 11 years despite the Vols having far fewer opportunities to be favored by at least a touchdown.

I’ve thought some about the start of these last 11 years today. The Vols lost openers as underdogs to #12 Cal in 2007 and #17 West Virginia last year. The only other Week 1 blip between Jerry Colquitt’s knee in 1994 and yesterday was in 2008: #18 Tennessee a touchdown favorite at UCLA.

How does the way you felt when the Vols lost that game compare to the way you feel today?

In 2008 the Vols were defending SEC East champs, the Tide just went 7-6 with a loss to Louisiana-Monroe, the Gators were coming off a 9-4 campaign, and the Dawgs – preseason #1 – had lost to Tennessee by 39 points over the last two years.

There’s no need to go back through Dave Clawson’s history; to his credit, Wake Forest just beat Utah State 38-35 in a game with nearly 1,200 yards of offense. On days like yesterday there’s still a part of me that imagines an alternate reality where the Vols hired someone else to run the offense in 2008 and none of the last 11 years happened. Still, the Clawfense rightfully drew anger that night in Pasadena, specifically for having Jonathan Crompton throw it 41 times when Arian Foster and Montario Hardesty combined for 162 yards on only 25 carries.

When Tennessee lost that game, I was furious. I think losing in Week 1 is one of the least fun things that happens in college football, because you spend so long waiting for this thing to get here and then it immediately betrays you. Even last year, with the Vols clear underdogs against West Virginia, it’s a special kind of no fun. And losing as a favorite is way worse.

Losing as a four-possession favorite should be way, way worse. But 11 years later, at least for me, it just doesn’t feel that way today.

I’m an optimist by nature and an idiot often. There were a few times in Butch Jones’ tenure where I found myself less affected by a loss, particularly to Florida in 2017. Some of that was the ridiculous nature of that game and its ending, but a lot of it was having had the conversation about Jones’ and the shortcomings of risk management often enough to build in some self-defense.

None of us were prepared for yesterday, no matter the trials and tribulations of these last 11 years. They didn’t build in self-defense on the front end of a new season as a four-possession favorite. I’ve hoped, more this off-season than ever before, that they’ve helped us with perspective. But they’ve also installed a little more “Oh well…” on the back end than might be good for business.

Good Seats Available

Yesterday’s announced attendance: 85,503. The Vols announced better crowds than that in every home game last season. Not just the home opener after the loss to West Virginia (96,464 vs ETSU). But more than 85,000 were announced against UTEP and Charlotte as well. Only the last game against Vanderbilt drew a smaller announced crowd in 2017 (83,117). Jim Chaney’s interim gig vs Kentucky in 2012 drew 81,841.

By contrast, the Vols vs UAB the week after losing to UCLA in 2008: 98,205. Just shy of 100,000 saw that Wyoming game. And Fulmer’s final game vs Kentucky at the end of that season: 102,388.

The first answer to what would make all of this better is, of course, “Beat BYU.” But apathy via attendance – an important factor because you can measure it in $$$ – was a problem before the Vols lost to Georgia State. This part, in particular, might get worse before it gets better.

The thing that made me feel the best today:

https://twitter.com/BudElliott3/status/1168195595724578816

Man, I hope there’s some truth to this. Butch Jones’ first class, with the benefit of no early signing period, added Josh Dobbs and Marquez North after the transition from Derek Dooley. Dobbs might’ve been Arizona State’s pride and joy if an early signing period was available. Butch’s 2014 Vols were perfectly positioned to capitalize on Year Two magic before blowing it against the Gators, but even then Dobbs showed up to change the narrative.

The most praiseworthy parts of yesterday were Jauan Jennings, Brent Cimaglia, and then two freshmen in Eric Gray and Henry To’o To’o. It’s one game, and obviously an infamous one, but those look like guys who can help Tennessee right now and really help them next season. The kind of trajectory we expect from a coach’s initial recruiting haul might now roll over into year three; Pruitt’s tenure here is as old as the early signing period, so we’ll find out together. But it was a happier thought if you’re out on the year two magic already.

For depressing reference, here are all of Tennessee’s losses as at least a touchdown favorite since 1985:

08 Wyoming	27
96 Memphis	26
19 Georgia St	24.5
92 Arkansas	22
86 Army	17
16 South Carolina	14.5
05 South Carolina	14
88 Duke	13.5
86 Mississippi St	11.5
01 Georgia	11.5
05 Vanderbilt	11
09 UCLA	10.5
00 LSU	9
99 Arkansas	7.5
01 LSU	7
04 Notre Dame	7
08 UCLA	7
16 Vanderbilt	7

Yeah, that 2016 South Carolina game looks worse in this context.

In the “worst loss ever” conversation, the math will support your candidate of choice. Via Covers.com, the Vols were between 25-27 point favorites against Memphis in 1996, Wyoming in 2008, and Georgia State today. If you’d like to increase your suffering, we can argue which one was truly worse (and I’ll take Memphis), but as you’re known by the company you keep, there’s no spinning today.

The offense, strangely enough, punted once. That’s usually a good day at the office. It’s less so when it’s accompanied by three turnovers, two failed fourth down conversions, and two field goals from inside the opponent’s 15 yard line. Nonetheless, when the opponent is Georgia State, that should still be enough for victory.

The opponent trailed 17-14 at halftime, the beneficiary of a short field after the first of those turnovers on the second play of the game. The Vols averaged 5.5 yards per play to Georgia State’s 3.5 in the first 30 minutes. I don’t know about you, but there wasn’t much alarm at that point.

Then Georgia State went 75 yards in nine plays to open the third quarter. They needed just one third down conversion, and that was third-and-one. And that became the theme of the game from then on: Georgia State with the slow knife of four yards per carry, converting 10-of-17 third downs.

You convert 10-of-17 when 10 of those third downs require three yards or less for the conversion. And I think that’s Tennessee’s biggest problem. I might buy some situational fixes for some of the offensive issues. Defensively, the Vols were bad on third down because they were bad on first and second.

I also know this is true because we watched it for most of last season, it just got lost in the weirdness of the Florida game and the strength of our schedule. But against South Carolina, Missouri, and Vanderbilt? Tennessee’s defense failed to keep the other team’s offense off their schedule. The Vols didn’t have the bodies up front then graduated those bodies, lost the best of the few returning options to a knee injury, and only got another one eligible this week.

More than the offensive line, where you at least have some experience and your two highest-rated freshmen, I thought the defensive line would be the biggest issue all year. I thought some teams would be able to do the same thing most teams did to Tennessee last year: the easy 4-5 yards per carry leading to the weight of inevitability. If Georgia State is one of those teams, it’s now fair to ask if they all will be.

From a philosophical standpoint, if this trend continues, the Vols are going to have to get a lot more aggressive on offense to win this year. Will Jeremy Pruitt have the stomach for it? We spent most of the back half of Butch Jones’ tenure knowing his faults and hoping he could learn and grow. But some of the philosophical issues were never resolved. What will happen with Pruitt in that department? We’re on game one of season two, but this is obviously the most glaring and most damning data point.

When the events that led to Jeremy Pruitt transpired, we talked about how the program was vulnerable in a way it had not been in my lifetime. Fulmer’s presence and Pruitt’s competence – especially on the recruiting trail – brought, at least for me, at least for a while, a sense of calm in that storm. But for recruits who need reasons to pick a Tennessee program that is now 67-71 in the last 11 years and one game, capped off with a four-possession upset against a 2-10 Sun Belt team at home? Today was very not good. It’s still only the first game, and there’s still a lot to learn about this team and its coaching staff. But some of that learning needs to lean positive, or the program will find itself in an increasing state of vulnerability again.

Congratulations to Georgia State.

How would you feel about a season like this:

• Beat Georgia State by four possessions, UAB by three possessions, and Chattanooga by as much as you want
• Beat BYU and Vanderbilt by a touchdown
• Toss-ups with South Carolina and at Kentucky
• Lose to Mississippi State by a touchdown
• Lose at Missouri by 10
• Lose at Florida/vs Georgia by two touchdowns
• Blown out at Alabama

Split the toss-ups with South Carolina and Kentucky, and you’re 6-6. Win both of them, and you’re 7-5.

That’s essentially Tennessee’s SP+ projection. Bill Connelly’s preseason rankings, now at ESPN.com, have the Vols just outside the Top 25 at #26. But, as is always the case with us, that’s less important than how many teams on Tennessee’s schedule are ranked ahead of us: six this year, including five in the Top 13 (SP+ really likes both Mississippi State and Missouri).

This kind of season is one way progress could look for Tennessee. Not only would the Vols return to bowl eligibility after a two-year absence, but Tennessee would be competitive in every game but the one in Tuscaloosa.

If Tennessee loses only one game by 17+ points (three possessions)? 2019 would be only the third time that’s happened since 2007, joining Butch Jones’ teams in 2015 and 2016. The former is the only Tennessee team to not lose a game by multiple possessions since 1998.

A 6-6 finish wouldn’t necessarily thrill the masses, but if it comes with this level of competitiveness, the Vols will have clearly taken a step in the right direction, as SP+ projects.

But if that’s not exciting enough for you, how about a season like this:

• Beat Georgia State by four possessions, UAB by three possessions, and Chattanooga by as much as you want
• Beat BYU and Vanderbilt by 10-12 points
• Beat South Carolina by 3-4 points
• Toss-ups with Mississippi State, at Kentucky, and at Missouri
• Lose at Florida/vs Georgia by a touchdown
• Lose at Alabama by 17

Go 1-2 in those toss-ups, and you’re 7-5. Go 2-1, and you’re 8-4.

That’s essentially Tennessee’s FPI projection. And for many of us, that sounds more like it.

This kind of season would feel much more like progress, even if the Vols don’t upset the Gators or Dawgs. One last time before kickoff: an 8-5 finish would be the third-best season of the last 12 years; 9-4 would tie Jones in 2015 and 2016 as the best since 2007. You always start and finish with wins and losses; we’ll spill plenty of word count on what this team did or didn’t do in the space between 5-7 and 8-4. But along the way, progress will once again be measured on every snap. It remains readily available…and the real fun will be in seeing how many wins that progress will earn.

Here’s the side-by-side comparison; margins come from comparing each team’s rating, +2.5 points for home field advantage:

2019 Vols Projected Margin of Victory	SP+	FPI
Georgia State	29	28.6
BYU	7.9	10.2
Chattanooga	N/A	N/A
at Florida	-15.4	-6
Georgia	-16	-6.6
Mississippi State	-6.9	1.9
at Alabama	-26.9	-17.2
South Carolina	-1.9	3.4
UAB	23.6	23.4
at Kentucky	1.1	2
at Missouri	-10.5	-1.3
Vanderbilt	7.8	11.8

When the Butch Jones era took a decisive turn from still possible to highly improbable via a 41-0 beat down from Georgia, we wrote on its failure to make lasting memories. The Vols missed opportunities to score a “we’re back!” win on the way to being nationally competitive, then saw the most famous first half of a season since at least 1992 turn into the most infamous second half of a season in my lifetime. As a result, though Butch Jones’ teams beat five ranked foes (and five more than Derek Dooley’s), even their most memorable victories still carry a “Yeah, but…” quality. In this way, some of my most enjoyable memories from those five years, at least for now, are lesser-known wins: Josh Dobbs’ coming out party at South Carolina in 2014, or bowl thrashings of Iowa and Northwestern that rightfully ushered in off-season optimism.

As we wrote two years ago, you can make a memory in any season. But you need that season to be ultimately successful for those memories to last well.

This happened in Jeremy Pruitt’s first season. The Vols beat #11 Kentucky by 17 points, and scored one of the five biggest Vegas upsets of my lifetime at #21 Auburn. But they didn’t become the dominant memory of 2018 because the Vols failed to earn bowl eligibility, much the same as what happened to Butch Jones’ win over #11 South Carolina in 2013. Finishing 5-7 overall carried more weight than those two wins.

The good news: eight days before kickoff, the bar seems to be holding at realistic goals for a successful year two. And since we really haven’t had what the majority would consider a successful year in this decade, any lasting memories this team makes will have a chance to resonate for a long time.

In its final year, what would you consider the biggest wins of this decade? And how would they compare to the biggest wins of the previous two? Your mileage may vary, but here are my picks:

	90’s	00’s	10’s
1	98 Florida State	01 Florida	16 Florida
2	98 Florida	04 Florida	16 Georgia
3	95 Alabama	04 Georgia	15 Georgia
4	98 Arkansas	07 Kentucky	13 South Carolina
5	91 Notre Dame	05 LSU	15 Northwestern
6	97 Auburn	03 Alabama	14 South Carolina
7	96 Alabama	02 Arkansas	16 Virginia Tech
8	90 Florida	03 Miami	14 Iowa
9	92 Florida	06 Georgia	18 Auburn
10	95 Ohio State	07 Georgia	18 Kentucky

Fun fact: eight of those ten from the 1990’s came against top ten foes. Even in the 00’s, there’s a stacked honorable mention category (06 Cal, 03 Florida); it would’ve been tough for anything Lane Kiffin did in 2009 to make this list even before he left.

But in this decade, you can get famous in a hurry. For individual drama, I’m not sure the 2019 Vols can do anything to top 2016 Florida and Georgia; I could live a long time and not see anything like either of those games. But for what a win can mean to a season and the narrative of the program? Make a memory this year, and follow through with a successful season?

The 2019 Vols may not be in the championship conversation. But they’ll have their chances to be remembered around here for a long time, and to be the first team in a long time to have the memories they make truly last well. That’s the legacy before Jennings, Callaway, Taylor, Bituli, and Warrior, guys who’ve been here through all of the above. And it’s the opportunity before the younger guys on this team: take a real, meaningful step this year and not only be remembered well, but position yourself to make even bigger memories as you go.

What memories will we make this fall?

Our annual picks contest through Fun Office Pools is back! If you played before, you should’ve received an email inviting you to play again. If you’re new with us, you can play for free and join our pool here!

As always, we pick 20 games per week, straight up, using confidence points: you put 20 points on the pick you’re most confident in, 1 point on the pick you’re least confident in, etc.

The pool is now open, and includes Week 0 games, so get your picks in before this Saturday. Here’s the opening slate:

Saturday, August 24

• #8 Florida vs Miami (Orlando) – 7:00 PM – ESPN
• Arizona at Hawaii – 10:30 PM – CBS Sports Network

Thursday, August 29

• UCLA at Cincinnati – 7:00 PM – ESPN
• Georgia Tech at #1 Clemson – 8:00 PM – ACC Network
• #14 Utah at BYU – 10:15 PM – ESPN

Friday, August 30

• #19 Wisconsin at South Florida – 7:00 PM – ESPN

Saturday, August 31

• Ole Miss at Memphis – 12:00 PM – ABC
• Florida Atlantic at #5 Ohio State – 12:00 PM – FOX
• Toledo at Kentucky – 12:00 PM – SEC Network
• Georgia State at Tennessee – 3:30 PM – ESPNU
• #2 Alabama vs Duke (Atlanta) – 3:30 PM – ABC
• South Carolina vs North Carolina (Charlotte) – 3:30 PM – ESPN
• Northwestern at #25 Stanford – 4:00 PM – FOX
• Virginia Tech at Boston College – 4:00 PM – ACC Network
• Florida State vs Boise State (Jacksonville) – 7:00 PM – ESPN
• #11 Oregon vs #16 Auburn (Arlington) – 7:30 PM – ABC
• #3 Georgia at Vanderbilt – 7:30 PM – SEC Network
• Missouri at Wyoming – 7:30 PM – CBS Sports Network

Sunday, September 1

• Houston at #4 Oklahoma – 7:30 PM – ABC

Monday, September 2 – Labor Day

• #9 Notre Dame at Louisville – 8:00 PM – ESPN

Seven wins.

Seven wins is a good year.

That’s what my court-appointed therapist made me say out loud in her office. A bunch. I guess my debts finally caught up to me after I spent all that money on Bristol, non-refundable hotel/airfare to Tampa, and the Vols at 18-1 to win the title three years ago, in addition to my losings last year. Thought I’d double down on the Vols at 16-1 to win the title in basketball back in March. Turns out I was not the first person to start a sentence with, “But your honor, the referees…” in a Knox County courtroom.

So it was either jail, or counseling and a payment plan. I started to ask if they had the SEC Network in jail, but my wife intervened and now I get to talk about my feelings twice a month.

It’s not been all bad. My life has more structure now. That’s another word my therapist makes me say a lot. I started playing basketball again; they think it’s for my health, which is fine. If it’s also for the off chance I run into Ryan Cline at the YMCA, well that’s fine too.

But look, seven wins…I mean, that’d be progress, right? Not losing to Will Muschamp or (Fulmerized) Vanderbilt for the fourth straight year would be progress. Seven wins is what Vegas thinks, and I think at this point it’s clear they’re smarter than me. And if we do win seven and then get the bowl – probably a nice trip to Nashville or Memphis, right? – then 8-5 would be better than any of the other non-Fulmers did in their second year. Heck, it’d be the third-best year in the last twelve!

But ESPN’s FPI has us at 7.6 wins. I’m not smart enough to understand all the advanced math and computers and whatnot behind that number. But I am smart enough to round up. And if by God ESPN has us at eight wins, how can we not think we’re going to win at least that? They’ve hated us longer than anybody, so much so that now they just don’t talk about us at all, which, I’ll be honest, does hurt my feelings a little. No true Tennessee fan can let ESPN believe the Vols are going to win more games than we do.

So, eight wins. Eight wins is a good year. Eight might even get us to Jacksonville or Tampa for the holidays. I’ve still got all my Tampa maps in the glove compartment! Win the bowl, and now we’re at 9-4, which would mean ol’ Jeremy did as well in only year two as anyone who’s tried to replace the battle captain, including Butch Jones with all that (Fulmerized) talent. And year two is supposed to be the magic year, right?

Well, if that’s the case, then we gotta win nine. 8-4 would be fine, but it ain’t magical. You want magic, you want the year two bump, that’s gotta be 9-3. That would be the best regular season since 2007, and if we win that bowl game it’d be the first time we didn’t lose four games the whole year since 2004! Heck, that’d probably be Orlando; we haven’t been there since the kid from Elizabethton outran the ghost of Charles Woodson. I haven’t even had the opportunity to get thrown out of Disneyworld since then!

Look, nine wins ain’t really that hard, right? Georgia State, Chattanooga, UAB, that’s three. Clearly, Kentucky can only beat us if Derek Dooley or Butch Jones is the head coach, that’s four. Dooley is at Missouri now, and sure, they beat us last year after Guarantano got knocked out in the first quarter. Then their head coach talked (Fulmerized) about Jeremy. When they asked Odom about it later, he said, “We were able to visit in person soon after that.” I bet. That’s five. Besides, they play us after they play Georgia and Florida back-to-back. So does South Carolina, as it turns out, so that’s six.

Mississippi State? Name one player on their team. That’s seven. We also play BYU, which is fine, though I’m unsure why we can’t schedule a good Baptist school. That’s eight. And then Vanderbilt. Look, I’ve been doing this a long time. The joke used to be we don’t even mention Vanderbilt in this thing because it’s such an automatic win. So let’s go back to that and see if it works. That’s nine.

So 9-3, with wins over Georgia State, BYU, Chattanooga, Mississippi State, South Carolina, UAB, Kentucky, Missouri, and Vanderbilt. That means our only losses would be to Florida, Georgia, and Alabamokay, nevermind.

Ten wins. Ten wins is a good year.

Look, we can’t play any worse against Florida, let’s start there. Do you know how hard it is to have your first ten drives end in something other than a punt or a touchdown? Both my preacher and my therapist have warned me against using the devil as a scapegoat so often, but I mean, come on. If the greatest trick he ever pulled was convincing the world he didn’t exist, the second greatest trick is pretty much every Tennessee-Florida game the last five years. Don’t think he didn’t try to get Jauan running down that sideline in 2016. I’m really glad that dude is still on our team.

And Georgia? Hey man, you could build our entire off-season argument around being down just 12 points to those guys in the fourth quarter last year, and that was before we called Jim Chaney home. In Knoxville, off the bye week? Who cares if Georgia is coming off the bye week too! We could beat them!

That’s 11 wins! And Bama just got punched in the mouth by Clemson, and everyone is telling me how their next head coach is gonna be our current head coach? Riddle me this: couldn’t Jeremy beat Bama so bad he didn’t want to be their coach anymore?

We’ve got the most underrated quarterback in the nation on an offense than ran fewer plays than anyone last season, that’s massive, guaranteed improvement. We’ve got a freshman class with the best blue-chip ratio since Phillip was on the sideline, including Eric Gray and Henry “I’ll learn to pronounce your name by the Florida game.”

And we hired a Gruden assistant to run our defense!

Let’s do this.

In the 90’s, Tennessee had five Freshman All-Americans: Aaron Hayden and Raymond Austin in 1991, Jamal Lewis in 1997, and Albert Haynesworth and Leonard Scott in 1999. All five made the first team. (Research via Tennessee’s 2019 media guide)

In the next decade, that number jumped to 18, including seven first-teamers: Michael Munoz in 2000, Kelley Washington in 2001, James Wilhoit in 2003, Roshaun Fellows in 2004, Josh McNeil in 2006, Eric Berry in 2007, and Aaron Douglas in 2009.

With one year to go, the Vols have placed 14 players on Freshman All-American teams in this decade, including nine first-teamers: James Stone in 2010, A.J. Johnson and Marcus Jackson in 2011, Jashon Robertson and Derek Barnett in 2014, Chance Hall in 2015, Trey Smith in 2017, and Bryce Thompson and Joe Doyle last season.

Freshmen are playing faster everywhere these days. But at Tennessee, on its fourth new coach since 2008, the new guys get more opportunities…especially in a coach’s second year.

Using the starting lineups from the media guide, here’s every true freshman starter I found in the post-Fulmer era:

2018	J. Carvin	A. Taylor	B. Thompson
2017	T. Smith	J. Palmer
2016
2015	J. Jennings	C. Hall	D. Kirkland
2014	J. Hurd	J. Malone	E. Wolf	J. Robertson	C. Thomas	D. Barnett
2013	M. North	J. Smith	C. Sutton
2012	L. McNeil
2011	M. Jackson	AJ Johnson	C. Maggitt	B. Randolph
2010	T. Bray	J. Stone
2009	A. Douglas	J. Jackson

Freshmen carry the heaviest weight not in year one, but year two: a coach’s first full recruiting class, a chance to get your guys in the mix. In 2011 all four of those starters earned Freshman All-American honors. In 2014 Butch Jones went all-in with six true freshmen starters, plus Todd Kelly Jr. who made the SEC All-Freshman team off the bench. In both cases, those guys would become significant pieces in what we hoped would be arrival seasons in 2012 and 2015-16; you’ll note the absence of true freshmen starters in 2012 (LaDarrell McNeil started after Brian Randolph tore his ACL against Florida) and in 2016 (Nigel Warrior made the SEC All-Freshman team off the bench).

We’ve been penciling in Wanya Morris and Darnell Wright as starters at offensive tackle this fall; Marcus Tatum might have something to say about some of that, but the Vols did start two freshmen on the line in 2014. Coleman Thomas was baptized by fire at Oklahoma, but the Vols still put together a potent offense as the year went along.

From there the sense for the 2019 Vols was that they didn’t have to have freshmen lead right away elsewhere, but if options emerged so be it. Early in fall camp, two of the most frequent names aren’t really that surprising: Eric Gray in the backfield, and Henry To’o To’o at linebacker. I’m not sure Gray will unseat Ty Chandler; the Vols are going to give plenty of opportunity to multiple backs anyway. But To’o To’o is Tennessee’s highest-rated signee behind the offensive tackles, and there is more opportunity to be a “starter” at linebacker than running back.

The mythical year two is usually thought of as one for big leaps. At Tennessee under Derek Dooley and Butch Jones, it was a chance to play a bunch of freshman and generate initial excitement. Dooley’s year two was derailed by injuries to Justin Hunter and Tyler Bray, but only after that excitement broke through against Cincinnati. Butch’s year two built on a close loss at Georgia before the Vols gave away the Florida game; sophomore Josh Dobbs won momentum back by season’s end.

For Jeremy Pruitt, no one is talking about this year two being a leap to championship contention. But if he can showcase his freshmen alongside the returning talent, that sense of excitement can show up on fall Saturdays. And considering the depths from which we’re climbing, there might be enough excitement for not just the future but the present.

Wherever you might’ve placed Emmit Gooden on your “least afford to lose” list, his presence there at all speaks to the problem of his out-for-the-season absence. Two things we’ve been saying all off-season:

• Defensive line is a bigger question mark than offensive line, because at least some of those guys on the OL played meaningful snaps and you’re bringing in five-star freshmen.
• Other than those offensive tackles, there’s nowhere any newcomers have to step in and lead right away.

Well, now the first part is even more true, and the second part is probably a lie.

Darnell Wright and Wanya Morris are Tennessee’s two highest-rated signees. You have to go further down the list to get to Savion Williams, Darel Middleton, and Elijah Simmons. If you’re looking for good news, that’s two JUCOs and an 18-year old that looks like this:

Yes srrrr ❗️❗️❗️❗️❗️❗️y’all ready ❓❓ pic.twitter.com/0JhxRW32Bk

— Elijah simmons (@901_hollywood_e) July 30, 2019

(Like me and my almost-two-year-old son, that dude’s head circumference is in the 100th percentile. “He’s so good he doesn’t need a neck!” – Idiot Optimist by next week, probably.)

So, potential remains on the defensive line for Tennessee. Now you just need it to show up immediately.

The only good thing about early fall camp injuries is the amount of time you have to get over them before facing live fire. More newcomers (hopefully including Aubrey Solomon) will get more reps, along with important returning pieces like Matthew Butler, and we’ll re-calibrate as best we’re able.

But it’s okay to say, 3+ weeks from kickoff, that this sucks. Especially because it keeps happening to one of those defensive guys on the least afford to lose list.

Butch Jones is long gone, so we can say this without it sounding like an unnecessary defense of him: this is the fourth time in five years the Vols have lost one of their best defensive players for the year before the calendar hits October:

• 2015: Curt Maggitt, Week 2
• 2016: Jalen Reeves-Maybin, Week 3
• 2017: Darrin Kirkland Jr., fall camp
• 2019: Emmit Gooden, fall camp

You can argue whatever percentage you like between bad luck and the revolving door to the strength and conditioning department, but still…man. These posts are getting old.

It’s the first day of practice, a preseason NFL game was on last night, and Madden releases today. Welcome to August.

The power rankings for individual off-season days used to be topped by the release of that year’s NCAA Football game. By the time actual practice started you could throw for 3,500 yards and go undefeated with any Vol quarterback from Heath Shuler to Justin Worley. I think I only bought Madden in 2000 when the Playstation 2 came out, and in 2005 on the Xbox 360, when you had to wait a whole year for a next-gen release in the college game. But since 2013, we’ve been stuck with Madden; child-like imaginations might find their way to an orange-tinted team (maybe the Browns this year!), but it ain’t the same.

Without the video game atop the off-season rankings, maybe your favorite day is the first time you get your hands on Phil Steele’s magazine (or Gameday on Rocky Top’s!). SEC Media Days always let you know things are getting closer. The announcement of kickoff times for the first three weeks lets you make tangible plans.

We don’t get an inside look at the first day of Tennessee’s practice, though Fan Day is available on Sunday. We’ll wait for names to pop in sound bites and behind paywalls, and hope some of those names are on the defensive line.

But, at least for me, one of my favorite days this time of year is driving through the neighborhood and seeing your local high school team practicing. I haven’t lived in Knoxville for 14 years now, and still miss the way orange slowly increases in the community over the course of August. But that idea of a group of people coming together around a team is still alive and well on every high school field this time of year.

This is the month when reason gives way to hope. Reality sets in for everyone in September. But no matter how long it’s been – and it’s been a while for us – hope is undefeated in the month of August.

We’ll start finding out what kind of hope this August will bring today.

Go Vols.