Author Archives: Will Shelton

In a sea of sound bites this week, I thought this one was interesting:

#Vols coach Jeremy Pruitt on his aggressive fourth-down mindset: I’m trying to instill a mindset in these guys that Tennessee goes out there to win games. We want to attack. We want to make you uncomfortable.

— Wes Rucker (@wesrucker247) September 9, 2019

We’ve talked a lot about Pruitt’s nature as it relates to the offense, especially because the Vols ran fewer plays than any team in college football last season. Does he naturally lack aggression? Was he trying to protect a vulnerable defense? And we wondered last week, before Jarrett Guarantano struggled so mightily against BYU, if Pruitt could adapt that kind of philosophy and green light an offense that scored a bunch of points if the defense truly couldn’t stop anyone.

There are fewer questions about the defense and more about the offense after the loss to BYU. But Pruitt’s response about fourth down was noteworthy, especially because the numbers already show a significant change in that department.

The Vols have gone for it five times, which is tied for 14th-most in college football (stats via SportSource Analytics). Your eyes immediately jump to the fact that Tennessee is just 1-for-5 on those conversions, and rightfully so. But big picture, I think five tries in two games is more significant…especially because Tennessee only went for it on fourth down 11 times last year.

That ranked 126th in college football; among teams that missed a bowl game, only Maryland had fewer attempts last season. In 2018 Tennessee came out of this particular gate fast: 2-of-3 on fourth down against West Virginia, successful conversions against ETSU and UTEP, and an 0-for-2 as part of a hyper-aggressive gameplan against the Gators. The Vols also went 0-for-2 against South Carolina on their final two drives…then didn’t try it again the rest of the year.

We saw a conservative nature on fourth down for the entire Butch Jones tenure:

Year	4th Down Att	Rank	Per Game
2019	5	14	2.5
2018	11	126	0.92
2017	10	124	0.83
2016	9	126	0.69
2015	17	84	1.31
2014	12	115	0.92
2013	11	114	0.92
2012	19	65	1.58
2011	28	10	2.33
2010	17	61	1.31
2009	24	13	1.85

The last consistently aggressive coach on fourth down was Lane Kiffin, who tried one in every game except the blowout win over Georgia. It doesn’t always work: the Vols were denied twice in a frustrating loss to UCLA. And when it does, it doesn’t guarantee victory: the Vols went 5-for-5 combined in narrow losses to Auburn and Alabama. But the willingness to go is something we never saw with Jones, and only saw as a reaction to Dooley’s least competitive team with an injury-riddled offense in 2011. Seventeen of those 28 attempts that season came in games featuring Matt Simms or Justin Worley at quarterback.

I like Pruitt’s quote, and I like the idea. Football coaches find forgiveness much faster for sins of aggression than the other way around. Had the Vols trotted out Cimaglia (and he continued to be automatic) on 4th-and-1 at the BYU 30 with 4:15 to go instead of trying Josh Palmer on the end around, Tennessee leads 19-13 and now BYU needs two hail maries instead of one.

And I’ve heard zero people make that point.

Call it confidence or aggression, but it tends to be rewarded over time. We’re especially appreciative of it after the previous administration courted close games every year. I’m hopeful Pruitt continues down this path, especially because it would represent doing something different. It’s one thing to say you’re learning, it’s another to demonstrate it.

You also can’t be aggressive for the sake of being aggressive. The Vols still struggle to run the ball in short yardage situations after being last by a mile in that stat last season. In two games, when running on 3rd-and-1-3 and 4th down, the Vols have nine carries for 24 yards. The 2.67 average is better. But those nine carries have still only produced five first downs. The Vols can be both smart and aggressive in their play-calling; again, that’s why I don’t hate the end-around, because at least it wasn’t another stuffed attempt into the center of the pile.

The larger issue everyone is invested in is building the mindset Pruitt references. Coach like you believe in your players, and it’s easier for them to believe in themselves. Belief is hard to come by after two games in Knoxville. But in the big picture, the fourth down mindset represents a hopeful shift in Pruitt’s philosophy, and will hopefully lead to a young team and a young coach continuing to grow in the right direction.

ESPN’s win probability data is available on their Gamecast page for every game since 2016, one year shy of the most famous blown late leads of this decade. So I can’t quantify the comparison, at least in this way, between the BYU loss and what happened against Oklahoma or Florida in 2015 or the Gators in 2014. Much is being made of BYU having a 99.6% chance of defeat when the ball was snapped on the penultimate play of regulation. The Vols were so fond of close games under Butch Jones, outcomes with a 90+% guarantee often went the other way. In 2016 the Gators had a 90.5% chance of victory up 21-3 midway through the third quarter. The next week the Vols were at 98.6% when Jacob Eason hit his hail mary, then the Dawgs at 99.9% when Josh Dobbs hit his. And against Georgia Tech in 2017, the Yellow Jackets had a 90.6% chance of victory on their snap that became the fumble that gave the Vols a final chance in regulation.

So sure, it’s brutal to lose when you have a 99.6% chance of victory in the final minute. But this one was particularly and uniquely painful because the Vols also controlled the entire game up to that point. ESPN’s win probability had the Vols at better than 60% for the entire game before that play, and better than 70% save for a few moments after Jarrett Guarantano’s third quarter interception and BYU’s lone touchdown in regulation. The Vols never led by more than 10, but the outcome never really felt in doubt once you saw that this team came to fight.

If coming to fight was step one, the defense denying Brigham Young for almost all of regulation was step two. And in passing those two tests, the Vols did take the worst of what we were all thinking off the table: that the team would fold, or that the defensive front was so outmatched it would be as if they did when playing someone better than Georgia State. But by putting this kind of gut-punching loss on the table – a first for Jeremy Pruitt, but not for this decade or the upperclassmen on the roster – the dots stay connected, the team folding creeps back into our thought process, and the big picture gets a little more blurry.

As for where Jeremy Pruitt fits in that picture, I think we can safely say there’s not a knowable scenario where it’s in Tennessee’s best interests to fire him this season. My assumption is it would take a cataclysmic finish like 2-10 to make the Vols eat the $9 million buyout, and even then maybe not. So much of that, and the big picture itself, depends on continuing to recruit at a high level. Tennessee has to play well enough to maintain interest from the kind of talent it will take to turn this thing around.

That, like a lot of things, is less about a specific number of wins and more about what progress looks like on the field. This team could finish something like 2-10 and still not lose six games by 25+ points the way they did last year. Hopefully Tennessee’s actual progress looks closer to six wins than two; I’ve got them splitting the difference at exactly 4.00 in our GRT Expected Win Total Machine.

We’ve spent so much time since 2008 trying to figure out how close we were to the top. Perhaps the better question for the present is measuring how close we are to the bottom.

By bottom, I don’t mean just losing to BYU with a 99.6% chance of victory. And that’s also not all I mean by the present.

This might get worse before it gets better. Chattanooga is likely to give the lowest attendance of my lifetime a run for its money. And if the Vols look bad against the Gators, something worse might happen against Georgia: a sell-off to the red & black, turning Neyland Stadium in 2019 into what Commonwealth Stadium looked like in the mid-to-late 90’s when the Vols came calling.

There is so much we want to embrace about who the Vols have been in our lifetimes. But it’s usually healthiest to embrace the truth of one’s present reality. The Vols are a long way from 2007 and a longer way from 1998. Perhaps it’s better for all of us to stop asking how soon we can get back up there, and instead figure out what needs to happen to simply get back up period.

The proverbial year two magic isn’t working for just about anyone right now, and should be Exhibit A for anyone who suggests you just pay as much as it takes on top of a $9 million buyout on top of Butch Jones to get a “sure thing.” Chip Kelly is 0-2 with two two-possession losses and 28 total points. Scott Frost and Nebraska lost to Colorado and looked bad against South Alabama. Willie Taggart is a missed extra point away from 0-2. Only Dan Mullen, who many of us didn’t want any part of, looks like a real success so far.

Obviously year two isn’t working for Tennessee either. But the Vols are so far behind, that entire conversation needs not just the pause button, but to come out of the CD player or VCR or whatever you had in 1998.

The Vols are 0-2 for the first time since 1988, the year before the best stretch in school history began, and the two losses came to Georgia State and BYU. It’s not in anyone’s best interests for the head coach to be somewhere else this season. And the Vols need to make enough progress to continue to recruit well. Things are bad, worse than we thought, and likely to stay that way for a minute or two. The most important thing is progress.

If the Vols truly don’t know how to win, they won’t learn it from 1998 or 2007. And it’s in Tennessee’s best interests to learn it from Jeremy Pruitt’s staff. We need to start measuring that progress not by the distance to the top, but the distance from the bottom.

So what does that progress look like now? Some good news is in the way you got minor glimpses of it against BYU. Ty Chandler’s 154 rushing yards were the most by a Vol running back since…Rajion Neal went for 169 against South Alabama in 2013. The Vols blocked well for long stretches, and the defense created penetration. BYU had 225 yards of offense before the long pass and two overtimes.

I don’t know what’s happening with Jarrett Guarantano. I do know the Vols were the worst team in college football in short yardage rushing last season by a significant margin. In that sense I don’t mind Jim Chaney’s end-around call in the fourth quarter; maybe the Vols should’ve called timeout or checked to something else, but we learned last year this team doesn’t have the horses to just line up and push for a yard consistently.

And I know we’re only two games into this season and 14 into Pruitt’s tenure. I know we probably underestimated, again, the impact of having two brand new coordinators, even when one of them is Jim Chaney. And I know the worst of this schedule is yet to come.

I don’t know what Tennessee’s best can do against it. But I do believe it’s in Tennessee’s best interests for us to pull for it – all of us in the same direction.

Ye olde GRT Expected Win Total Machine has been on quite the ride. Expectations at the start of fall camp hovered around 6.9 wins, rising to 7.2 last week with Trey Smith and Aubrey Solomon eligible and kickoff knocking on the door. But in the aftermath of the Georgia State game (and after removing a few entries that gave the Vols an 80% chance to beat Chattanooga and a 0% chance against the rest of the field, which might be allowed by next week!), things are…less exciting.

The average expectation among our readers is now 3.92 wins on the year. If we’re still allowed to round up, that would put the Vols at 4-8, 5-7, and 4-8 the last three years.

No one’s projection was worth anything against Georgia State, but looking at things through more objective eyes is – hopefully, in this case – still helpful. SP+ and FPI were both high on the Vols coming into the year due to plenty of returning experience. No one lost like Tennessee last week, but several of our opponents didn’t flatter themselves either. As a result, here’s the projected margin of victory for Tennessee in SP+ and FPI going forward:

	SP+	FPI
BYU	9	6.9
Chattanooga	N/A	N/A
at Florida	-15.4	-12.5
Georgia	-18.4	-14.5
Mississippi St	-7.6	-2.7
at Alabama	-32.7	-25.3
South Carolina	0.4	0.3
UAB	22.5	23.5
at Kentucky	-5	-4
at Missouri	-9.8	-3.5
Vanderbilt	5.6	7.4

Both models have the Vols favored by at least 5.5 points in four remaining games, plus a clear toss-up with South Carolina. From there, it gets trickier: the two models continue to disagree on Mississippi State and Missouri, with FPI now listing the trip to Lexington as Tennessee’s most difficult game after the usual suspects from Florida, Georgia, and Alabama.

The date with the Gamecocks is of obvious importance from seven weeks away. Not only might it be one of Tennessee’s best chances to scratch and claw their way back to six wins, but if things go bad against BYU on Saturday it could become the game that eliminates any final hope of bowl eligibility in October.

But first, the Cougars. Vegas still likes the Vols in the neighborhood of a field goal, and both advanced statistical models like Tennessee by more than that; SP+ gives Tennessee a 70% chance of victory, which is what I gave us in the Expected Win Total Machine before the Georgia State loss. So far our readers this week give the Vols a 42.9% chance of victory against the Cougars (again, after removing the zeroes).

I’m more curious than anything, about everything. How many people will show up? How soon would booing commence? And the bigger picture questions: what percentage of Tennessee’s problems from last week are easier to fix – alignment, assignment, etc. – and what percentage of them can’t get fixed any time soon, because they’re the same problems from last season without enough new faces to solve them? And if the latter list is longer, what percentage of fight does this team have in its tank?

There’s some “most important game since ____________” floating around. A couple thoughts about that. The last “most important game” we played was against Georgia in 2017; its importance became the end of the Butch Jones era, not the beginning of any short-term good. The ones before that were all in 2016 with stakes both higher and more tangible. You can argue the long-term stakes are really high for Tennessee right now, and that’s true…but those won’t be ultimately decided by what the Vols do or don’t do against BYU. Tennessee was always playing the long game here. We’ve played games of actual importance recently enough, and been through enough change for longer than that to think anything program-related is going to get decided on Saturday.

In the short-term, this game matters a lot. It might also help us see how long the long-term really is.

If Vegas and the statistical models are right, the Vols will course correct, at least this week, and our scenarios will improve. Or if what we saw defensively for much of last season and the Georgia State game shows up against BYU, we’ll lean hard into the abyss and its enveloping apathy. This is a week when we’ll either be forced to embrace a worst-case scenario, or find a Tennessee team capable of making the best of it. I’m genuinely curious to see which way it goes.

Saturday was Tennessee’s 18th loss as a favorite of at least a touchdown since 1985, which is as far back as the data at Covers.com goes. That’s roughly one every other season, a pace that hasn’t slowed in the last 11 years despite the Vols having far fewer opportunities to be favored by at least a touchdown.

I’ve thought some about the start of these last 11 years today. The Vols lost openers as underdogs to #12 Cal in 2007 and #17 West Virginia last year. The only other Week 1 blip between Jerry Colquitt’s knee in 1994 and yesterday was in 2008: #18 Tennessee a touchdown favorite at UCLA.

How does the way you felt when the Vols lost that game compare to the way you feel today?

In 2008 the Vols were defending SEC East champs, the Tide just went 7-6 with a loss to Louisiana-Monroe, the Gators were coming off a 9-4 campaign, and the Dawgs – preseason #1 – had lost to Tennessee by 39 points over the last two years.

There’s no need to go back through Dave Clawson’s history; to his credit, Wake Forest just beat Utah State 38-35 in a game with nearly 1,200 yards of offense. On days like yesterday there’s still a part of me that imagines an alternate reality where the Vols hired someone else to run the offense in 2008 and none of the last 11 years happened. Still, the Clawfense rightfully drew anger that night in Pasadena, specifically for having Jonathan Crompton throw it 41 times when Arian Foster and Montario Hardesty combined for 162 yards on only 25 carries.

When Tennessee lost that game, I was furious. I think losing in Week 1 is one of the least fun things that happens in college football, because you spend so long waiting for this thing to get here and then it immediately betrays you. Even last year, with the Vols clear underdogs against West Virginia, it’s a special kind of no fun. And losing as a favorite is way worse.

Losing as a four-possession favorite should be way, way worse. But 11 years later, at least for me, it just doesn’t feel that way today.

I’m an optimist by nature and an idiot often. There were a few times in Butch Jones’ tenure where I found myself less affected by a loss, particularly to Florida in 2017. Some of that was the ridiculous nature of that game and its ending, but a lot of it was having had the conversation about Jones’ and the shortcomings of risk management often enough to build in some self-defense.

None of us were prepared for yesterday, no matter the trials and tribulations of these last 11 years. They didn’t build in self-defense on the front end of a new season as a four-possession favorite. I’ve hoped, more this off-season than ever before, that they’ve helped us with perspective. But they’ve also installed a little more “Oh well…” on the back end than might be good for business.

Good Seats Available

Yesterday’s announced attendance: 85,503. The Vols announced better crowds than that in every home game last season. Not just the home opener after the loss to West Virginia (96,464 vs ETSU). But more than 85,000 were announced against UTEP and Charlotte as well. Only the last game against Vanderbilt drew a smaller announced crowd in 2017 (83,117). Jim Chaney’s interim gig vs Kentucky in 2012 drew 81,841.

By contrast, the Vols vs UAB the week after losing to UCLA in 2008: 98,205. Just shy of 100,000 saw that Wyoming game. And Fulmer’s final game vs Kentucky at the end of that season: 102,388.

The first answer to what would make all of this better is, of course, “Beat BYU.” But apathy via attendance – an important factor because you can measure it in $$$ – was a problem before the Vols lost to Georgia State. This part, in particular, might get worse before it gets better.

The thing that made me feel the best today:

https://twitter.com/BudElliott3/status/1168195595724578816

Man, I hope there’s some truth to this. Butch Jones’ first class, with the benefit of no early signing period, added Josh Dobbs and Marquez North after the transition from Derek Dooley. Dobbs might’ve been Arizona State’s pride and joy if an early signing period was available. Butch’s 2014 Vols were perfectly positioned to capitalize on Year Two magic before blowing it against the Gators, but even then Dobbs showed up to change the narrative.

The most praiseworthy parts of yesterday were Jauan Jennings, Brent Cimaglia, and then two freshmen in Eric Gray and Henry To’o To’o. It’s one game, and obviously an infamous one, but those look like guys who can help Tennessee right now and really help them next season. The kind of trajectory we expect from a coach’s initial recruiting haul might now roll over into year three; Pruitt’s tenure here is as old as the early signing period, so we’ll find out together. But it was a happier thought if you’re out on the year two magic already.

For depressing reference, here are all of Tennessee’s losses as at least a touchdown favorite since 1985:

08 Wyoming	27
96 Memphis	26
19 Georgia St	24.5
92 Arkansas	22
86 Army	17
16 South Carolina	14.5
05 South Carolina	14
88 Duke	13.5
86 Mississippi St	11.5
01 Georgia	11.5
05 Vanderbilt	11
09 UCLA	10.5
00 LSU	9
99 Arkansas	7.5
01 LSU	7
04 Notre Dame	7
08 UCLA	7
16 Vanderbilt	7

Yeah, that 2016 South Carolina game looks worse in this context.

In the “worst loss ever” conversation, the math will support your candidate of choice. Via Covers.com, the Vols were between 25-27 point favorites against Memphis in 1996, Wyoming in 2008, and Georgia State today. If you’d like to increase your suffering, we can argue which one was truly worse (and I’ll take Memphis), but as you’re known by the company you keep, there’s no spinning today.

The offense, strangely enough, punted once. That’s usually a good day at the office. It’s less so when it’s accompanied by three turnovers, two failed fourth down conversions, and two field goals from inside the opponent’s 15 yard line. Nonetheless, when the opponent is Georgia State, that should still be enough for victory.

The opponent trailed 17-14 at halftime, the beneficiary of a short field after the first of those turnovers on the second play of the game. The Vols averaged 5.5 yards per play to Georgia State’s 3.5 in the first 30 minutes. I don’t know about you, but there wasn’t much alarm at that point.

Then Georgia State went 75 yards in nine plays to open the third quarter. They needed just one third down conversion, and that was third-and-one. And that became the theme of the game from then on: Georgia State with the slow knife of four yards per carry, converting 10-of-17 third downs.

You convert 10-of-17 when 10 of those third downs require three yards or less for the conversion. And I think that’s Tennessee’s biggest problem. I might buy some situational fixes for some of the offensive issues. Defensively, the Vols were bad on third down because they were bad on first and second.

I also know this is true because we watched it for most of last season, it just got lost in the weirdness of the Florida game and the strength of our schedule. But against South Carolina, Missouri, and Vanderbilt? Tennessee’s defense failed to keep the other team’s offense off their schedule. The Vols didn’t have the bodies up front then graduated those bodies, lost the best of the few returning options to a knee injury, and only got another one eligible this week.

More than the offensive line, where you at least have some experience and your two highest-rated freshmen, I thought the defensive line would be the biggest issue all year. I thought some teams would be able to do the same thing most teams did to Tennessee last year: the easy 4-5 yards per carry leading to the weight of inevitability. If Georgia State is one of those teams, it’s now fair to ask if they all will be.

From a philosophical standpoint, if this trend continues, the Vols are going to have to get a lot more aggressive on offense to win this year. Will Jeremy Pruitt have the stomach for it? We spent most of the back half of Butch Jones’ tenure knowing his faults and hoping he could learn and grow. But some of the philosophical issues were never resolved. What will happen with Pruitt in that department? We’re on game one of season two, but this is obviously the most glaring and most damning data point.

When the events that led to Jeremy Pruitt transpired, we talked about how the program was vulnerable in a way it had not been in my lifetime. Fulmer’s presence and Pruitt’s competence – especially on the recruiting trail – brought, at least for me, at least for a while, a sense of calm in that storm. But for recruits who need reasons to pick a Tennessee program that is now 67-71 in the last 11 years and one game, capped off with a four-possession upset against a 2-10 Sun Belt team at home? Today was very not good. It’s still only the first game, and there’s still a lot to learn about this team and its coaching staff. But some of that learning needs to lean positive, or the program will find itself in an increasing state of vulnerability again.

Congratulations to Georgia State.

How would you feel about a season like this:

• Beat Georgia State by four possessions, UAB by three possessions, and Chattanooga by as much as you want
• Beat BYU and Vanderbilt by a touchdown
• Toss-ups with South Carolina and at Kentucky
• Lose to Mississippi State by a touchdown
• Lose at Missouri by 10
• Lose at Florida/vs Georgia by two touchdowns
• Blown out at Alabama

Split the toss-ups with South Carolina and Kentucky, and you’re 6-6. Win both of them, and you’re 7-5.

That’s essentially Tennessee’s SP+ projection. Bill Connelly’s preseason rankings, now at ESPN.com, have the Vols just outside the Top 25 at #26. But, as is always the case with us, that’s less important than how many teams on Tennessee’s schedule are ranked ahead of us: six this year, including five in the Top 13 (SP+ really likes both Mississippi State and Missouri).

This kind of season is one way progress could look for Tennessee. Not only would the Vols return to bowl eligibility after a two-year absence, but Tennessee would be competitive in every game but the one in Tuscaloosa.

If Tennessee loses only one game by 17+ points (three possessions)? 2019 would be only the third time that’s happened since 2007, joining Butch Jones’ teams in 2015 and 2016. The former is the only Tennessee team to not lose a game by multiple possessions since 1998.

A 6-6 finish wouldn’t necessarily thrill the masses, but if it comes with this level of competitiveness, the Vols will have clearly taken a step in the right direction, as SP+ projects.

But if that’s not exciting enough for you, how about a season like this:

• Beat Georgia State by four possessions, UAB by three possessions, and Chattanooga by as much as you want
• Beat BYU and Vanderbilt by 10-12 points
• Beat South Carolina by 3-4 points
• Toss-ups with Mississippi State, at Kentucky, and at Missouri
• Lose at Florida/vs Georgia by a touchdown
• Lose at Alabama by 17

Go 1-2 in those toss-ups, and you’re 7-5. Go 2-1, and you’re 8-4.

That’s essentially Tennessee’s FPI projection. And for many of us, that sounds more like it.

This kind of season would feel much more like progress, even if the Vols don’t upset the Gators or Dawgs. One last time before kickoff: an 8-5 finish would be the third-best season of the last 12 years; 9-4 would tie Jones in 2015 and 2016 as the best since 2007. You always start and finish with wins and losses; we’ll spill plenty of word count on what this team did or didn’t do in the space between 5-7 and 8-4. But along the way, progress will once again be measured on every snap. It remains readily available…and the real fun will be in seeing how many wins that progress will earn.

Here’s the side-by-side comparison; margins come from comparing each team’s rating, +2.5 points for home field advantage:

2019 Vols Projected Margin of Victory	SP+	FPI
Georgia State	29	28.6
BYU	7.9	10.2
Chattanooga	N/A	N/A
at Florida	-15.4	-6
Georgia	-16	-6.6
Mississippi State	-6.9	1.9
at Alabama	-26.9	-17.2
South Carolina	-1.9	3.4
UAB	23.6	23.4
at Kentucky	1.1	2
at Missouri	-10.5	-1.3
Vanderbilt	7.8	11.8

When the Butch Jones era took a decisive turn from still possible to highly improbable via a 41-0 beat down from Georgia, we wrote on its failure to make lasting memories. The Vols missed opportunities to score a “we’re back!” win on the way to being nationally competitive, then saw the most famous first half of a season since at least 1992 turn into the most infamous second half of a season in my lifetime. As a result, though Butch Jones’ teams beat five ranked foes (and five more than Derek Dooley’s), even their most memorable victories still carry a “Yeah, but…” quality. In this way, some of my most enjoyable memories from those five years, at least for now, are lesser-known wins: Josh Dobbs’ coming out party at South Carolina in 2014, or bowl thrashings of Iowa and Northwestern that rightfully ushered in off-season optimism.

As we wrote two years ago, you can make a memory in any season. But you need that season to be ultimately successful for those memories to last well.

This happened in Jeremy Pruitt’s first season. The Vols beat #11 Kentucky by 17 points, and scored one of the five biggest Vegas upsets of my lifetime at #21 Auburn. But they didn’t become the dominant memory of 2018 because the Vols failed to earn bowl eligibility, much the same as what happened to Butch Jones’ win over #11 South Carolina in 2013. Finishing 5-7 overall carried more weight than those two wins.

The good news: eight days before kickoff, the bar seems to be holding at realistic goals for a successful year two. And since we really haven’t had what the majority would consider a successful year in this decade, any lasting memories this team makes will have a chance to resonate for a long time.

In its final year, what would you consider the biggest wins of this decade? And how would they compare to the biggest wins of the previous two? Your mileage may vary, but here are my picks:

	90’s	00’s	10’s
1	98 Florida State	01 Florida	16 Florida
2	98 Florida	04 Florida	16 Georgia
3	95 Alabama	04 Georgia	15 Georgia
4	98 Arkansas	07 Kentucky	13 South Carolina
5	91 Notre Dame	05 LSU	15 Northwestern
6	97 Auburn	03 Alabama	14 South Carolina
7	96 Alabama	02 Arkansas	16 Virginia Tech
8	90 Florida	03 Miami	14 Iowa
9	92 Florida	06 Georgia	18 Auburn
10	95 Ohio State	07 Georgia	18 Kentucky

Fun fact: eight of those ten from the 1990’s came against top ten foes. Even in the 00’s, there’s a stacked honorable mention category (06 Cal, 03 Florida); it would’ve been tough for anything Lane Kiffin did in 2009 to make this list even before he left.

But in this decade, you can get famous in a hurry. For individual drama, I’m not sure the 2019 Vols can do anything to top 2016 Florida and Georgia; I could live a long time and not see anything like either of those games. But for what a win can mean to a season and the narrative of the program? Make a memory this year, and follow through with a successful season?

The 2019 Vols may not be in the championship conversation. But they’ll have their chances to be remembered around here for a long time, and to be the first team in a long time to have the memories they make truly last well. That’s the legacy before Jennings, Callaway, Taylor, Bituli, and Warrior, guys who’ve been here through all of the above. And it’s the opportunity before the younger guys on this team: take a real, meaningful step this year and not only be remembered well, but position yourself to make even bigger memories as you go.

What memories will we make this fall?

Our annual picks contest through Fun Office Pools is back! If you played before, you should’ve received an email inviting you to play again. If you’re new with us, you can play for free and join our pool here!

As always, we pick 20 games per week, straight up, using confidence points: you put 20 points on the pick you’re most confident in, 1 point on the pick you’re least confident in, etc.

The pool is now open, and includes Week 0 games, so get your picks in before this Saturday. Here’s the opening slate:

Saturday, August 24

• #8 Florida vs Miami (Orlando) – 7:00 PM – ESPN
• Arizona at Hawaii – 10:30 PM – CBS Sports Network

Thursday, August 29

• UCLA at Cincinnati – 7:00 PM – ESPN
• Georgia Tech at #1 Clemson – 8:00 PM – ACC Network
• #14 Utah at BYU – 10:15 PM – ESPN

Friday, August 30

• #19 Wisconsin at South Florida – 7:00 PM – ESPN

Saturday, August 31

• Ole Miss at Memphis – 12:00 PM – ABC
• Florida Atlantic at #5 Ohio State – 12:00 PM – FOX
• Toledo at Kentucky – 12:00 PM – SEC Network
• Georgia State at Tennessee – 3:30 PM – ESPNU
• #2 Alabama vs Duke (Atlanta) – 3:30 PM – ABC
• South Carolina vs North Carolina (Charlotte) – 3:30 PM – ESPN
• Northwestern at #25 Stanford – 4:00 PM – FOX
• Virginia Tech at Boston College – 4:00 PM – ACC Network
• Florida State vs Boise State (Jacksonville) – 7:00 PM – ESPN
• #11 Oregon vs #16 Auburn (Arlington) – 7:30 PM – ABC
• #3 Georgia at Vanderbilt – 7:30 PM – SEC Network
• Missouri at Wyoming – 7:30 PM – CBS Sports Network

Sunday, September 1

• Houston at #4 Oklahoma – 7:30 PM – ABC

Monday, September 2 – Labor Day

• #9 Notre Dame at Louisville – 8:00 PM – ESPN

Seven wins.

Seven wins is a good year.

That’s what my court-appointed therapist made me say out loud in her office. A bunch. I guess my debts finally caught up to me after I spent all that money on Bristol, non-refundable hotel/airfare to Tampa, and the Vols at 18-1 to win the title three years ago, in addition to my losings last year. Thought I’d double down on the Vols at 16-1 to win the title in basketball back in March. Turns out I was not the first person to start a sentence with, “But your honor, the referees…” in a Knox County courtroom.

So it was either jail, or counseling and a payment plan. I started to ask if they had the SEC Network in jail, but my wife intervened and now I get to talk about my feelings twice a month.

It’s not been all bad. My life has more structure now. That’s another word my therapist makes me say a lot. I started playing basketball again; they think it’s for my health, which is fine. If it’s also for the off chance I run into Ryan Cline at the YMCA, well that’s fine too.

But look, seven wins…I mean, that’d be progress, right? Not losing to Will Muschamp or (Fulmerized) Vanderbilt for the fourth straight year would be progress. Seven wins is what Vegas thinks, and I think at this point it’s clear they’re smarter than me. And if we do win seven and then get the bowl – probably a nice trip to Nashville or Memphis, right? – then 8-5 would be better than any of the other non-Fulmers did in their second year. Heck, it’d be the third-best year in the last twelve!

But ESPN’s FPI has us at 7.6 wins. I’m not smart enough to understand all the advanced math and computers and whatnot behind that number. But I am smart enough to round up. And if by God ESPN has us at eight wins, how can we not think we’re going to win at least that? They’ve hated us longer than anybody, so much so that now they just don’t talk about us at all, which, I’ll be honest, does hurt my feelings a little. No true Tennessee fan can let ESPN believe the Vols are going to win more games than we do.

So, eight wins. Eight wins is a good year. Eight might even get us to Jacksonville or Tampa for the holidays. I’ve still got all my Tampa maps in the glove compartment! Win the bowl, and now we’re at 9-4, which would mean ol’ Jeremy did as well in only year two as anyone who’s tried to replace the battle captain, including Butch Jones with all that (Fulmerized) talent. And year two is supposed to be the magic year, right?

Well, if that’s the case, then we gotta win nine. 8-4 would be fine, but it ain’t magical. You want magic, you want the year two bump, that’s gotta be 9-3. That would be the best regular season since 2007, and if we win that bowl game it’d be the first time we didn’t lose four games the whole year since 2004! Heck, that’d probably be Orlando; we haven’t been there since the kid from Elizabethton outran the ghost of Charles Woodson. I haven’t even had the opportunity to get thrown out of Disneyworld since then!

Look, nine wins ain’t really that hard, right? Georgia State, Chattanooga, UAB, that’s three. Clearly, Kentucky can only beat us if Derek Dooley or Butch Jones is the head coach, that’s four. Dooley is at Missouri now, and sure, they beat us last year after Guarantano got knocked out in the first quarter. Then their head coach talked (Fulmerized) about Jeremy. When they asked Odom about it later, he said, “We were able to visit in person soon after that.” I bet. That’s five. Besides, they play us after they play Georgia and Florida back-to-back. So does South Carolina, as it turns out, so that’s six.

Mississippi State? Name one player on their team. That’s seven. We also play BYU, which is fine, though I’m unsure why we can’t schedule a good Baptist school. That’s eight. And then Vanderbilt. Look, I’ve been doing this a long time. The joke used to be we don’t even mention Vanderbilt in this thing because it’s such an automatic win. So let’s go back to that and see if it works. That’s nine.

So 9-3, with wins over Georgia State, BYU, Chattanooga, Mississippi State, South Carolina, UAB, Kentucky, Missouri, and Vanderbilt. That means our only losses would be to Florida, Georgia, and Alabamokay, nevermind.

Ten wins. Ten wins is a good year.

Look, we can’t play any worse against Florida, let’s start there. Do you know how hard it is to have your first ten drives end in something other than a punt or a touchdown? Both my preacher and my therapist have warned me against using the devil as a scapegoat so often, but I mean, come on. If the greatest trick he ever pulled was convincing the world he didn’t exist, the second greatest trick is pretty much every Tennessee-Florida game the last five years. Don’t think he didn’t try to get Jauan running down that sideline in 2016. I’m really glad that dude is still on our team.

And Georgia? Hey man, you could build our entire off-season argument around being down just 12 points to those guys in the fourth quarter last year, and that was before we called Jim Chaney home. In Knoxville, off the bye week? Who cares if Georgia is coming off the bye week too! We could beat them!

That’s 11 wins! And Bama just got punched in the mouth by Clemson, and everyone is telling me how their next head coach is gonna be our current head coach? Riddle me this: couldn’t Jeremy beat Bama so bad he didn’t want to be their coach anymore?

We’ve got the most underrated quarterback in the nation on an offense than ran fewer plays than anyone last season, that’s massive, guaranteed improvement. We’ve got a freshman class with the best blue-chip ratio since Phillip was on the sideline, including Eric Gray and Henry “I’ll learn to pronounce your name by the Florida game.”

And we hired a Gruden assistant to run our defense!

Let’s do this.

In the 90’s, Tennessee had five Freshman All-Americans: Aaron Hayden and Raymond Austin in 1991, Jamal Lewis in 1997, and Albert Haynesworth and Leonard Scott in 1999. All five made the first team. (Research via Tennessee’s 2019 media guide)

In the next decade, that number jumped to 18, including seven first-teamers: Michael Munoz in 2000, Kelley Washington in 2001, James Wilhoit in 2003, Roshaun Fellows in 2004, Josh McNeil in 2006, Eric Berry in 2007, and Aaron Douglas in 2009.

With one year to go, the Vols have placed 14 players on Freshman All-American teams in this decade, including nine first-teamers: James Stone in 2010, A.J. Johnson and Marcus Jackson in 2011, Jashon Robertson and Derek Barnett in 2014, Chance Hall in 2015, Trey Smith in 2017, and Bryce Thompson and Joe Doyle last season.

Freshmen are playing faster everywhere these days. But at Tennessee, on its fourth new coach since 2008, the new guys get more opportunities…especially in a coach’s second year.

Using the starting lineups from the media guide, here’s every true freshman starter I found in the post-Fulmer era:

2018	J. Carvin	A. Taylor	B. Thompson
2017	T. Smith	J. Palmer
2016
2015	J. Jennings	C. Hall	D. Kirkland
2014	J. Hurd	J. Malone	E. Wolf	J. Robertson	C. Thomas	D. Barnett
2013	M. North	J. Smith	C. Sutton
2012	L. McNeil
2011	M. Jackson	AJ Johnson	C. Maggitt	B. Randolph
2010	T. Bray	J. Stone
2009	A. Douglas	J. Jackson

Freshmen carry the heaviest weight not in year one, but year two: a coach’s first full recruiting class, a chance to get your guys in the mix. In 2011 all four of those starters earned Freshman All-American honors. In 2014 Butch Jones went all-in with six true freshmen starters, plus Todd Kelly Jr. who made the SEC All-Freshman team off the bench. In both cases, those guys would become significant pieces in what we hoped would be arrival seasons in 2012 and 2015-16; you’ll note the absence of true freshmen starters in 2012 (LaDarrell McNeil started after Brian Randolph tore his ACL against Florida) and in 2016 (Nigel Warrior made the SEC All-Freshman team off the bench).

We’ve been penciling in Wanya Morris and Darnell Wright as starters at offensive tackle this fall; Marcus Tatum might have something to say about some of that, but the Vols did start two freshmen on the line in 2014. Coleman Thomas was baptized by fire at Oklahoma, but the Vols still put together a potent offense as the year went along.

From there the sense for the 2019 Vols was that they didn’t have to have freshmen lead right away elsewhere, but if options emerged so be it. Early in fall camp, two of the most frequent names aren’t really that surprising: Eric Gray in the backfield, and Henry To’o To’o at linebacker. I’m not sure Gray will unseat Ty Chandler; the Vols are going to give plenty of opportunity to multiple backs anyway. But To’o To’o is Tennessee’s highest-rated signee behind the offensive tackles, and there is more opportunity to be a “starter” at linebacker than running back.

The mythical year two is usually thought of as one for big leaps. At Tennessee under Derek Dooley and Butch Jones, it was a chance to play a bunch of freshman and generate initial excitement. Dooley’s year two was derailed by injuries to Justin Hunter and Tyler Bray, but only after that excitement broke through against Cincinnati. Butch’s year two built on a close loss at Georgia before the Vols gave away the Florida game; sophomore Josh Dobbs won momentum back by season’s end.

For Jeremy Pruitt, no one is talking about this year two being a leap to championship contention. But if he can showcase his freshmen alongside the returning talent, that sense of excitement can show up on fall Saturdays. And considering the depths from which we’re climbing, there might be enough excitement for not just the future but the present.