Tennessee’s shocking season-opening loss to the Georgia State Panthers Saturday was a gut-punch to our expectations for the 2019 Vols in Jeremy Pruitt’s second season. In our most recent podcast, we said it was like the sucker punch that killed Houdini.
How exactly do you recalibrate expectations under these circumstances? On one hand, if you just lost a game you were 95% sure you were going to win, logic will sit there and calmly explain to you that you should also lose any game you were less certain to win. And just like that, there goes every game except maybe Chattanooga, which itself becomes more of a coin flip than a sure thing.
On the other hand, we also know both from intuition and experience that logic doesn’t understand college football. When people put on their colors and kids start chasing balls designed to bounce funny, logic is often relegated to simply shrugging its shoulders.
You have to look at the hard data you have, no matter how disturbing it might be. But you also have to look at the softer data that makes more sense. How do you strike the balance?
Me? Today? I tend toward the middle, so I’m inclined to think that a significant adjustment to expectations is warranted but that it shouldn’t all just go in the trash can. But I also think that if we’re going to re-assess our expectations weekly, it makes the most sense to do it based primarily on the prior week’s results. If next week is better, we can account for that next week. Please, please, pretty please, let’s account for that next week.
So, with all of that, my current win total expectation for the Vols is . . . welp . . . 2.87, down from 6.6 last week. This will move significantly again next week if the evidence against BYU suggests that Georgia State was a fluke. Please, please, pretty please let it be a fluke.
- Preseason: 6.55
- After Week 0: 6.6
- After Week 1: 2.87
Details: Alabama and Georgia at 1%. Florida at 10%. I’ve moved Kentucky, Missouri, Mississippi State, South Carolina, and Vanderbilt all from toss-ups to 20%. I’ve changed BYU and UAB from 80% to toss-ups. And I now have Chattanooga at 75% instead of 95%. Oof.
The GRT Expected Win Total Machine
Explanations are below, but here’s a table with my updated expectations:
Tennessee Volunteers currently
Current record: 0-1 (0-0), 2nd in the SEC East
| Sat, Aug 31 | Lost to Georgia State, 30-38 |
| Sat, Sep 7 | Lost to BYU, 29-26 2OT |
| Sat, Sep 14 | Beat Chattanooga, 45-0 |
| Sat, Sep 21 | Lost @ No. 9 Florida, 34-3 |
| Sat, Oct 5 | Lost to No. 3 Georgia, 43-14 |
| Sat, Oct 12 | Beat Mississippi State, 20-10 |
| Sat, Oct 19 | Lost @ 1 Alabama, 35-13 |
| Sat, Oct 26 | Beat South Carolina, 41-21 |
| Sat, Nov 2 | Beat UAB, 30-7 |
| Sat, Nov 9 | Beat Kentucky, 17-13 |
| Sat, Nov 23 | Beat Missouri, 24-20 |
| Sat, Nov 30 | vs Vanderbilt |
The Vols’ past opponents
Georgia State Panthers
Current record: 1-0 (0-0), 1st in the Sun Belt East
| Sat, Aug 31 | Beat Tennessee, 38-30 |
| Sat, Sep 7 | Beat Furman, 48-42 |
| Sat, Sep 14 | Lost to Western Michigan, 57-10 |
| Sat, Sep 21 | Lost @ Texas State, 37-34 3OT |
| Sat, Oct 5 | Beat Arkansas State, 52-38 |
| Sat, Oct 12 | Beat Coastal Carolina, 31-21 |
| Sat, Oct 19 | Beat Army, 28-21 |
| Sat, Oct 26 | Beat Troy, 52-33 |
| Sat, Nov 9 | Lost @ UL Monroe, 45-31 |
| Sat, Nov 16 | Lost to No. 25 Appalachian State, 56-27 |
| Sat, Nov 23 | Beat South Alabama, 28-15 |
| Sat, Nov 30 | @ Georgia Southern |
The Vols’ future opponents
BYU Cougars
Current record: 0-1 (0-0)
| Thu, Aug 29 | Lost to No. 14 Utah, 12-30 |
| Sat, Sep 7 | Beat Tennessee, 29-26 2OT |
| Sat, Sep 14 | Beat No. 24 USC, 30-27 OT |
| Sat, Sep 21 | Lost to No. 22 Washington, 45-19 |
| Sat, Sep 28 | Lost @ Toledo, 28-21 |
| Sat, Oct 12 | Lost @ South Florida, 27-23 |
| Sat, Oct 19 | Beat No. 14 Boise State, 28-25 |
| Sat, Nov 2 | Beat Utah State, 42-14 |
| Sat, Nov 9 | Beat Liberty, 31-24 |
| Sat, Nov 16 | Beat Idaho State, 42-10 |
| Sat, Nov 23 | Beat UMass, 56-24 |
| Sat, Nov 30 | @ San Diego State |
Chattanooga Mocs
Current record: 1-0 (0-0), 2nd in the Southern Conference
| Thu, Aug 29 | Beat Eastern Illinois, 24-10 |
| Sat, Sep 7 | Lost to Jacksonville State, 41-20 |
| Sat, Sep 14 | Lost at Tennessee, 45-0 |
| Sat, Sep 21 | Lost to James Madison, 37-14 |
| Sat, Sep 28 | Beat Western Carolina, 60-36 |
| Sat, Oct 5 | Beat Mercer, 34-17 |
| Thu, Oct 17 | Beat East Tennessee State, 16-13 |
| Sat, Oct 26 | Lost @ Wofford, 35-34 OT |
| Sat, Nov 2 | Lost to Furman, 35-20 |
| Sat, Nov 9 | Beat Samford, 35-27 |
| Sat, Nov 16 | Beat The Citadel, 34-33 |
| Sat, Nov 23 | Lost to VMI, 31-24 |
Florida Gators
Current record: 1-0 (0-0), 2nd in the SEC East
| Sat, Aug 24 | Beat Miami, 24-20 |
| Sat, Sep 7 | Beat UT Martin, 45-0 |
| Sat, Sep 14 | Beat Kentucky, 29-21 |
| Sat, Sep 21 | Beat Tennessee, 34-3 |
| Sat, Sep 28 | Beat Towson, 38-0 |
| Sat, Oct 5 | Beat No. 7 Auburn, 24-13 |
| Sat, Oct 12 | Lost @ No. 5 LSU, 42-28 |
| Sat, Oct 19 | Beat South Carolina, 38-27 |
| Sat, Nov 2 | Lost to No. 8 Georgia, 24-17 |
| Sat, Nov 9 | Beat Vanderbilt, 56-0 |
| Sat, Nov 16 | Beat Missouri, 23-6 |
| Sat, Nov 30 | vs Florida State |
Georgia Bulldogs
Current record: 1-0 (1-0), 1st in the SEC East
| Sat, Aug 31 | Beat Vanderbilt, 30-6 |
| Sat, Sep 7 | Beat Murray State, 63-17 |
| Sat, Sep 14 | Beat Arkansas State, 55-0 |
| Sat, Sep 21 | Beat No. 7 Notre Dame, 23-17 |
| Sat, Oct 5 | Beat Tennessee, 43-14 |
| Sat, Oct 12 | Lost to South Carolina, 20-17 2OT |
| Sat, Oct 19 | Beat Kentucky, 21-0 |
| Sat, Nov 2 | Beat No. 6 Florida, 24-17 |
| Sat, Nov 9 | Beat Missouri, 27-0 |
| Sat, Nov 16 | Beat No. 12 Auburn, 21-14 |
| Sat, Nov 23 | Beat Texas A&M, 19-13 |
| Sat, Nov 30 | @ Georgia Tech |
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Current record: 1-0 (0-0), 1st in the SEC West
| Sat, Aug 31 | Beat Louisiana, 38-28 |
| Sat, Sep 7 | Beat Southern Mississippi, 38-15 |
| Sat, Sep 14 | Lost to Kansas State, 31-24 |
| Sat, Sep 21 | Beat Kentucky, 28-13 |
| Sat, Sep 28 | Lost @ No. 7 Auburn, 56-23 |
| Sat, Oct 12 | Lost @ Tennessee, 20-10 |
| Sat, Oct 19 | Lost to No. 2 LSU |
| Sat, Oct 26 | Lost @ Texas A&M, 49-30 |
| Sat, Nov 2 | Beat Arkansas, 54-24 |
| Sat, Nov 16 | Lost to No. 5 Alabama, 38-7 |
| Sat, Nov 23 | Beat Abilene Christian, 45-7 |
| Thu, Nov 28 | vs Ole Miss |
Alabama Crimson Tide
Current record: 1-0 (0-0), 1st in the SEC West
| Sat, Aug 31 | Beat Duke, 42-3 |
| Sat, Sep 7 | Beat New Mexico State, 62-10 |
| Sat, Sep 14 | Beat South Carolina, 47-23 |
| Sat, Sep 21 | Beat Southern Miss, 49-7 |
| Sat, Sep 28 | Beat Ole Miss, 59-31 |
| Sat, Oct 12 | Beat No. 24 Texas A&M, 47-28 |
| Sat, Oct 19 | Beat Tennessee, 35-13 |
| Sat, Oct 26 | Beat Arkansas, 48-7 |
| Sat, Nov 9 | Lost to No. 2 LSU, 46-41 |
| Sat, Nov 16 | Beat Mississippi State, 38-7 |
| Sat, Nov 23 | Beat Western Carolina, 66-3 |
| Sat, Nov 30 | @ No. 11 Auburn |
South Carolina Gamecocks
Current record: 0-1 (0-0), 2nd in the SEC East
| Sat, Aug 31 | Lost to North Carolina, 24-20 |
| Sat, Sep 7 | Beat Charleston Southern, 72-10 |
| Sat, Sep 14 | Lost to No. 2 Alabama, 47-23 |
| Sat, Sep 21 | Lost @ Missouri, 34-14 |
| Sat, Sep 28 | Beat Kentucky, 24-7 |
| Sat, Oct 12 | Beat No. 3 Georgia, 20-17 2OT |
| Sat, Oct 19 | Lost to No. 9 Florida, 38-27 |
| Sat, Oct 26 | Lost @ Tennessee, 41-21 |
| Sat, Nov 2 | Beat Vanderbilt, 24-7 |
| Sat, Nov 9 | Lost to Appalachian State, 20-15 |
| Sat, Nov 16 | Lost @ Texas A&M, 30-6 |
| Sat, Nov 30 | vs 4 Clemson |
UAB Blazers
Current record: 1-0 (0-0), 1st in C-USA West
| Thu, Aug 29 | Beat Alabama State, 24-19 |
| Sat, Sep 7 | Beat Akron, 31-20 |
| Sat, Sep 21 | Beat South Alabama, 35-3 |
| Sat, Sep 28 | Lost @ Western Kentucky, 20-13 |
| Sat, Oct 5 | Beat Rice, 35-20 |
| Sat, Oct 12 | Beat UTSA, 33-14 |
| Sat, Oct 19 | Beat Old Dominion, 38-14 |
| Sat, Nov 2 | Lost @ Tennessee, 30-7 |
| Sat, Nov 9 | Lost @ Southern Miss, 37-2 |
| Sat, Nov 16 | Beat UTEP, 37-10 |
| Sat, Nov 23 | Beat Louisiana Tech, 20-14 |
| Sat, Nov 30 | @ North Texas |
Kentucky Wildcats
Current record: 1-0 (0-0), 2nd in the SEC East
| Sat, Aug 31 | Beat Toledo, 38-24 |
| Sat, Sep 7 | Beat Eastern Michigan, 38-17 |
| Sat, Sep 14 | Lost to No. 8 Florida, 29-21 |
| Sat, Sep 21 | Lost @ Mississippi State, 28-13 |
| Sat, Sep 28 | Lost @ South Carolina, 24-7 |
| Sat, Oct 12 | Beat Arkansas, 24-20 |
| Sat, Oct 19 | Lost to No. 10 Georgia, 21-0 |
| Sat, Oct 26 | Beat Missouri, 29-7 |
| Sat, Nov 9 | Lost to Tennessee, 17-13 |
| Sat, Nov 16 | Beat Vanderbilt, 38-14 |
| Sat, Nov 23 | Beat UT Martin, 50-7 |
| Sat, Nov 30 | vs Louisville |
Missouri Tigers
Current record: 0-1 (0-0), 2nd in the SEC East
| Sat, Aug 31 | Lost to Wyoming, 37-31 |
| Sat, Sep 7 | Beat West Virginia, 38-7 |
| Sat, Sep 14 | Beat Southeast Missouri State, 50-0 |
| Sat, Sep 21 | Beat South Carolina, 34-14 |
| Sat, Oct 5 | Beat Troy, 42-10 |
| Sat, Oct 12 | Beat Ole Miss, 38-27 |
| Sat, Oct 19 | Lost to Vanderbilt, 21-14 |
| Sat, Oct 26 | Lost @ Kentucky, 29-7 |
| Sat, Nov 9 | Lost @ No. 6 Georgia, 27-0 |
| Sat, Nov 16 | Lost to No. 11 Florida, 23-6 |
| Sat, Nov 23 | Lost to Tennessee, 24-20 |
| Fri, Nov 29 | @ Arkansas |
Vanderbilt Commodores
Current record: 0-1 (0-1), 7th in the SEC East
| Sat, Aug 31 | Lost to No. 3 Georgia, 30-6 |
| Sat, Sep 7 | Lost to Purdue, 42-24 |
| Sat, Sep 21 | Lost to No. 4 LSU, 66-38 |
| Sat, Sep 28 | Beat Northern Illinois, 24-18 |
| Sat, Oct 5 | Lost to Ole Miss, 31-6 |
| Sat, Oct 12 | Lost to UNLV, 34-10 |
| Sat, Oct 19 | Beat No. 22 Missouri, 21-14 |
| Sat, Nov 2 | Lost @ South Carolina, 24-7 |
| Sat, Nov 9 | Lost @ No. 10 Florida, 56-0 |
| Sat, Nov 16 | Lost to Kentucky, 38-14 |
| Sat, Nov 23 | Beat ETSU, 38-0 |
| Sat, Nov 30 | @ Tennessee |
What about you? Where are your expectations heading into Week 1?
I said I was at 4.55 on the podcast, but I did that before Missouri lost to Wyoming. On Monday afternoon I’m at 4.74.
3.82, which honestly my heart still says is pretty optimistic. My head says realistically they should be able to pull at least a couple of wins off somewhere, even if I don’t really know where. Other teams have had embarrassing losses, and still went on to wins some games (or already did had won some). But it still feels so far out of reach. Really, I think this week against BYU will give us some more definitive answers. Which is why it was so hard to pick things this week. Another loss, especially one looking so thoroughly apathetic and whipped… Read more »
I would agree about the OL rotation. For the BYU game play the same 5 guys for at least 3 series. Also get some energy going, i have seen more enthusiasm from five year olds at a broccoli and asparagus eating contest.
I am now at 4.19
I am at 3.0… less than half of pre-season expectations. I hope I am completely wrong. Sigh… Go Vols!
At this point, why ruin a perfectly historic season with a win? I may be overly optimistic at 2.73. That’s the problem with expected values – even games like Bama (1) and Georgia (2) count somthing toward the total and there’s not a chance on God’s green earth that we’ll earn even those expected values. I am 35, 65, 10, 2, 25, 1, 25, 45, 25, 20, 20.
July 25, 2019 (pre-season): 5.96
August 26, 2019 (after “Week Zero”): 5.92
September 3, 2019 (post-Georgia St.): 3.86
That’s actually a little higher than I would have expected.
3.92!
I’m looking downright cheery in here 😛