Author Archives: Will Shelton

In the off-season we do a series on Making Progress, on how the Vols can improve on the things they were very worst at in the previous year. Seven games into this season, Tennessee is moving in the right direction on most of those fronts:

• Running on third-and-short was the thing Tennessee was very worst at last season: 21 carries for 20 yards, the only team in college football to average less than 1.5 yards per carry (and the Vols averaged 0.95 yards per carry). It hasn’t gone from the basement to the penthouse, as you’d expect, but this year the Vols have 20 carries on 3rd-and-1-3 for 44 yards (2.20 ypc) and 13 first downs. Tennessee no longer has to go shotgun and hope for the best. (Stats via SportSource Analytics)
• Last year Tennessee ran fewer plays than any team in college football. This year the Vols are 116th of 130 in that department; they’re ahead of just five teams that have played seven games, and do have a handful of overtime snaps. Keep an eye on this number as the Vols enter a more winnable stretch of their season.
• Last season the Vols forced only 15 turnovers. Through seven games this year, Tennessee already has 13. Five against Chattanooga helped, but the Vols also had three against Florida and, more crucially, three against Mississippi State.
• In the massive improvement department: last year the Vols allowed opponents to score 41 times in 45 red zone visits, 120th nationally. So far this year opponents are just 25-of-32 (78.13%), 35th nationally. It’s bolstered by Chattanooga going 0-for-3 (which is still impressive), but the Vols also turned away Mississippi State once and intercepted Alabama.
• One area the Vols are yet to improve: explosive running plays. Last season Tennessee had 49 runs of 10+ yards, 116th nationally. Through seven games this season the Vols have 24 runs of 10+ yards, 115th nationally. Let’s see how that number improves when not facing Florida, Georgia, and Alabama.

Tennessee is better on a number of fronts, including the kind of significant improvement in turnovers and red zone defense that suggest a big difference on the scoreboard. What’s keeping that from happening?

Red zone offense.

In 24 red zone trips this season, Tennessee has only 10 touchdowns. That’s 41.67%, 124th nationally and one of just 16 teams scoring a touchdown less than 50% of the time they enter the red zone.

Here’s each of Tennessee’s 24 red zone possessions:

Game	Qtr	Score	Result
Georgia State	1	0-7	TD
Georgia State	2	14-14	FG 19 yds
Georgia State	4	20-21	FG 31 yds
Georgia State	4	23-38	TD
BYU	1	0-0	TD
BYU	2	7-3	TOD 4th-&-1
BYU	4	13-10	FG 22 yds
BYU	OT1	16-23	TD
Chattanooga	1	0-0	TD
Chattanooga	1	14-0	TD
Chattanooga	2	35-0	FG 34 yds
Chattanooga	3	38-0	TD
Florida	1	0-7	INT
Florida	3	0-17	FG 40 yds
Georgia	2	7-10	TD
Georgia	4	14-43	TOD 4th-&-Goal
Mississippi St	1	0-0	INT
Mississippi St	1	0-0	TD
Mississippi St	2	7-3	INT
Mississippi St	3	10-3	FG 22 yds
Alabama	1	0-7	TD
Alabama	2	7-14	FG 37 yds
Alabama	3	10-21	FG 32 yds
Alabama	4	13-28	Fumble TD

A word of praise is due Brent Cimaglia. Nine kickers with 7+ attempts have yet to miss a field goal this season. After those nine, no one has been better than Cimaglia’s 13-of-14 (92.9%). He made what were important kicks in the moment against Georgia State and BYU, gave Tennessee its first points at Florida, gave the Vols a two-possession lead against Mississippi State, and gave Tennessee a chance at Alabama. Perhaps we expect kickers to go 8-for-8 on attempts of 40 yards or less, but that’s usually not the exact result.

There’s enough bad to spread around on the red zone turnovers: Maurer’s two picks against Mississippi State, a ball Jauan Jennings should’ve caught at Florida, and Guarantano’s poor choice on Saturday night. Whatever it’s worth, JG also failed to get the backups in on four tries from the five yard line against Georgia’s backups. And Eric Gray was stuffed on an important early sequence against BYU, foreshadowing the end-around stop just outside the red zone later in the game.

Tennessee’s struggles at the doorstep have been particularly painful. At the end of the first half against Georgia State the Vols had two shots from the three yard line but couldn’t get in. Early in the fourth quarter the Vols had 3rd-and-2 at the Georgia State 14, but a pass to Austin Pope went for no gain and the Vols settled for three to take a 23-21 lead. Aside from the fourth down stops, against BYU the Vols also had 1st-and-Goal at the 9 early in the fourth quarter with a chance to take a two-possession lead up 13-10, but had to kick a field goal.

The interception at Florida was obviously painful, but with only two red zone visits I’m not sure Tennessee is winning that game either way. But what happened at Alabama was a microcosm of this problem before the Guarantano fumble. On the drive when Maurer was injured, the Vols had 1st-and-Goal at the 5 and went false start, no gain, holding, incomplete, then Guarantano missed Jennings on the double move. The other sequence was more about officiating, when 1st-and-Goal at the 7 led to a phantom holding penalty and then a missed pass interference call. But against Alabama, the Vols were so close to doing something really special on three separate drives, then went field goal, field goal, disaster.

So here’s some good news: on drives Brian Maurer finished, you do of course have a pair of end zone interceptions against Mississippi State, which we’re chalking up to some combination of freshman mistakes and a concussion. But the other red zone trips led by Maurer: a touchdown to open the third quarter against Chattanooga, the only points of the day at Florida (on a drive that reached only the 20), an A+ touchdown throw against Georgia, Tim Jordan’s touchdown run against Mississippi State, and a QB sneak touchdown at Alabama. In Maurer’s seven red zone drives, the Vols have four touchdowns, the field goal at Florida, and the two picks against Mississippi State. Obviously, you can’t throw picks in the end zone. But the other results have been good, including that throw against Georgia which is the best individual play Tennessee has made in the red zone this season and perhaps beyond. It’s a small sample size: Maurer is 1-of-6 in the red zone this year, the one being that touchdown, with two of the five incompletions being those interceptions. But Guarantano is 9-of-24 for 79 yards with five touchdowns and the interception at Florida. Those five touchdowns include the last-second TD against Georgia State, the batted-ball against BYU, the overtime TD catch by Jennings, and two scores against Chattanooga. When the windows get tight, everyone has struggled. Guarantano was better here last year too: 14-of-23 for 111 yards in the red zone, with seven touchdowns and, importantly, zero interceptions.

Everything is on the table, but if you’re going to expect anything in these next five games, I’d lean toward close calls. That means all of these red zone trips are going to count. And the Vols, who traded a chance for something special into Alabama’s spectacular last week, have to put the ball in the end zone more often. If Maurer comes back, can he continue this trend? If it’s Shrout, can he learn on the fly? And if it’s Guarantano, can he recover from everything he’s faced this season and get this team in the end zone?

“That’s the same team that lost to Georgia State,” is the rhetoric today from parts of Clemson, Columbus, Baton Rouge, and anywhere else a team fancies itself the best in the land.

It’s not, of course. You’re never really the same team in late October as you were in late August.

It is, unfortunately, the same season. Tennessee is still 2-5, and still needs a 4-1 finish to earn the bowl eligibility everyone assumed two months ago. But the Vols we saw in Tuscaloosa played way, way better than those same preseason assumptions allowed for.

They did it without Brian Maurer for most of the night, who left each of the last two games with only seven passing attempts for concussion protocol. They did it without Henry To’o To’o in the first half and Daniel Bituli for the second, a razor-thin position to begin with that somehow still held up. And they did it after catching the wrong end of several breaks from the officiating crew, including a pair of potentially game-changing calls in a matter of minutes.

And sure, we need a few words on Jarrett Guarantano. Last week the Vols play-called as if they were trying to win in spite of him, but Guarantano did go 6-of-7 for 106 yards, including a 41 yard bomb to Ramel Keyton that led to three points and the final strike to Tyler Byrd. They beat Mississippi State, in part, because of him doing what he needed to do on the few plays they asked him to do it.

The numbers were worse this time – 7-of-16 for 55 yards – but Guarantano did convert three third downs through the air in the second half, the first leading to three points and the other two on that 14-play drive.

It’s the end of that sequence that’s driving the outside conversation, and a fair percentage of what Tennessee fans are talking about too. Let’s consider what would’ve been true even if Guarantano didn’t fumble or actually scored.

Tennessee’s coaching staff has twice demonstrated their trust with Guarantano throwing the ball is already low. Whatever happened on that snap, it didn’t increase that level of trust. The other thing I believed to be true was, if Maurer couldn’t play, those coaches still believed JG gave Tennessee the best chance to win, and the feel-good story this season hopes to become is in need of those, now.

The move to put J.T. Shrout in the game cast some doubt on that, backed by a handful of those far closer to the program than I am not being nearly as surprised by the decision.

If Maurer isn’t an option, what do you do against South Carolina? It’s the latest of a series of difficult questions for Jeremy Pruitt. Answering difficult questions is in the job description, of course, but these are a different set of questions than we thought we’d be asking at this point in year two.

However, the questions we thought we’d be asking are getting answered in the affirmative more every week. Yesterday was one of the best performances from Tennessee’s offensive line in a long time, again despite obvious trust issues in the passing game. And Tennessee’s defensive line again made a difference: Alabama got just 4.1 yards per carry, the second-best performance by a Tennessee defense in this game in the last eight years.

Watching the way the Vols competed, there’s a hope we’re done with the +34.5 lines. Before Tua went out, the Vols came to play. Without him (but with Alabama’s army of five stars still intact), the Vols were competitive to the end.

It feels like we might be entering territory the Vols often found themselves in during basketball seasons of the past: capable of beating anyone, capable of being beat by anyone. It’s an exciting place to be! It can also be frustrating, especially with uncertainty at quarterback.

Tennessee has grown far beyond the team they were against Georgia State. In the big picture, the Vols are making progress in all the right places, restoring hope in this coaching staff and excitement for the future. In the short term, they may not like their options at quarterback, and have to manage a number of emotions with South Carolina coming to town in what’s become one of the biggest games of the year. Who’s going to get more questions about officiating this week between Pruitt and Muschamp? Who will be better at getting their team to respond from that kind of disappointment?

Everything is on the table for this team. That includes bowl eligibility and the hope such a run would inspire. And it includes more frustrating defeats behind more uncertainty at quarterback, enough to cast a shadow on this season’s overall progress. Especially in this season, we should’ve learned by now not to set expectations in stone for how it’s going to go the rest of the way. How’s it going to go this week?

As always, the Vols will be interesting in pursuit of the answer.

On the heels of the Mississippi State win, our community Expected Win Total stands at 4.82. As the name implies, we’re not expecting bowl eligibility yet, but the Vols are at least back in the conversation.

That particular point of progress isn’t likely to change in Tuscaloosa after dark, where the Vols are +34.5. But there’s a version of this where we come out of Saturday night feeling just as good (better?) about Tennessee’s chase for six wins.

Last year Alabama came to the Third Saturday in October looking like one of the best college football teams in the history of earth. Tennessee had more of a pulse than in 2017, when the Vols were dominated from start to finish, and also in 2016, when the #9 Vols were humiliated offensively. The 2018 Vols scored two second quarter touchdowns to make it 35-14, and were set to receive the second half kickoff. It ain’t much – and Bama punched it in just before halftime anyway – but against these guys, it was something. At 4.69 yards per play, you could at least entertain the notion of something good happening when the Vols snapped the ball.

This year, Alabama’s defense is certainly more vulnerable, though vulnerability is relative when your offense is averaging more than eight yards per play. But South Carolina (5.34 yards per play), Ole Miss (5.41), and Texas A&M (5.56) all had more success than we’re used to seeing teams of that caliber get against the Tide defense. I’m quite sure A&M has more talent than Tennessee right now, but South Carolina and Ole Miss are fair comparisons.

The 21 points Tennessee scored on Alabama last year were already the most in this rivalry (in regulation) for the Vols since…2001! You want Tennessee, especially if quarterbacked by Brian Maurer, to land enough punches to believe they can do the same against South Carolina, etc.

Of course, the other side of this coin is the other side of the ball, where progress this season would be holding Alabama to 41 points or less, or less than 6.5 yards per play. When you’re this kind of underdog, it’s hard to make covering the spread a success; I’m not sure we’re going to feel great about life if the Vols lose by 31. But this week feels more about maintaining the momentum established last Saturday. Maybe that comes via onside kicks and fourth down conversions – hey, maybe it’s an effective recruiting strategy for those young enough to pay attention after 9:00 PM ET – but the bigger picture is keeping this team not only together where it fell apart last November, but moving forward in the chase for six wins. The Vols came out of the last Third Saturday feeling like they’d done that, then followed it up with an almost-good-enough performance at South Carolina. Can we get a little more of the same this year?

The win itself doesn’t feel like a total surprise, though definitely a relief. The Vols were +5 at the closing line today, and we’re in no position to be ungrateful, so well done by Jeremy Pruitt and his staff in getting their third SEC win as an underdog.

Tennessee coming away with the win doesn’t feel like the headline. But the way it happened, on both sides of the ball, is breaking news.

Seven sacks against an SEC foe? First time this decade. Only 14 passing attempts? Fewest against any opponent this decade.

Selling out to stop the SEC’s leading rusher on one side of the ball, and suddenly playing without your freshman spark at quarterback on the other side? The Vols had no business finding much success impacting MSU’s passing game, or running the ball when everyone knew it was coming.

And yet.

The Vols had 190 rushing yards on 44 carries; 4.3 yards per carry is the third-best mark under Pruitt in SEC play, behind the Kentucky win last year and the Vanderbilt game when the Vols got only 14 carries in falling behind. On this game’s most crucial drive in the fourth quarter, with the Vols facing their worst field position of the day and awaiting diagnosis on a potential case of the oh-no’s in Neyland Stadium, Ty Chandler immediately ran for 6 and 15 yards, then Tim Jordan for 7 and 12. When everyone knew it was coming and the Vols had to have it anyway, they got it. Easily.

Darrell Taylor had two sacks to bring his career total to 14. Bryce Thompson got one blitzing from the secondary. The other four: the first career sacks at Tennessee for Darel Middleton, Matthew Butler, Kivon Bennett, and Aubrey Solomon. Any one of those guys getting a sack today would’ve felt like a bonus coming in. All of them cashed in.

Other than Texas A&M – only four more years until they come to Knoxville for the first time! – we probably have less of a relationship to Mississippi State than any other team in the SEC. That makes it harder to get a feel for their program, expectations, etc. But I’d say one’s opinion on the trajectories of these two programs has shifted in the last couple weeks:

Today’s game was REAL BAD. Lots of things about today’s game were REAL BAD. Check out all the things that were REAL BAD on https://t.co/Fg5ZIyEyFI https://t.co/GU2weooom0

— For Whom the Cowbell Tolls (@mstatesports) October 12, 2019

Because the Bulldogs lost at home to Kansas State, were obliterated by Auburn, had a bye week, and then turned in this performance today? There’s a part of me that’s wondering if Mississippi State is, in fact, real bad, despite being the favorite and finishing eighth in SP+ last season.

Either way, today was real good for Tennessee.

Bama’s next; we know the drill there. The ask on the other side will be four wins in five games against South Carolina, UAB, at Kentucky, at Missouri, and Vanderbilt. After today, we’re firmly in not-probable-but-possible range.

The Vols and Pruitt are still playing the long game. That exercise looked like giant question marks at quarterback and on both sides of the line not at all long ago, the three worst places for uncertainty in the SEC. Midway through the season, the Vols are still 2-4 with costly losses on the front end. But those most important questions, at least for today (and a little bit of last week), look a little more answerable. We’ll see what happens with Brian Maurer’s concussion protocol; credit Jarrett Guarantano for making every throw he needed to make today. Credit Tennessee’s offensive line for not needing those throws. And credit the defensive line – and so many names therein – for going from an absolute liability in game one to holding the SEC’s leading rusher to 11 carries for 13 yards and seven sacks. Seven!

Any win was a good win today; in isolation, this one deserves all the singing and celebration after what we’ve been through. The schedule presents possibility.

But the biggest news of all today wasn’t the what, but the how. Are the young Vols getting significantly better at quarterback, offensive line, and defensive line? For present and future, that’s the biggest news of all.

Beat Bama.

At the midway point of the season, we’ve finally got a game where the match-up itself is the most interesting story.

Not many of us, including me, took the time to preview Georgia State. Bad idea, it turns out, but we made up for it in word count the next week. Then the end of the BYU game ensured Tennessee and Jeremy Pruitt would be the lead story through Chattanooga and into Gainesville, where the Vols lost 34-3 and it seemed like there was no point in talking about how to beat Georgia.

And there probably wasn’t; the quarterback change got our rightful attention. But with Brian Maurer passing his first test against #3 Georgia, “bowl” has re-entered the vocabulary. It’s still probably a conversation for after a win like this one – I’ve got the Vols at 4.25 in expected win total – but Mississippi State comes to Knoxville at 3-2, not the 5-0 some of us thought possible. One of those losses was at home to Kansas State, the other a 56-23 beat down at Auburn in which they trailed 49-9 90 seconds into the third quarter.

Mississippi State is currently favored at -6.5, making this just the second time in the first six games the line is single digits (BYU +3). Something similar happened last season: the Vols were +10 against West Virginia and +3.5 against Florida, then didn’t see single digits again until +9 at South Carolina.

Last season Mississippi State finished 8-5 but 8th in SP+, due to one of the most difficult schedules in college football after catching Kentucky and Florida from the SEC East. They beat Texas A&M 28-13 then rolled Ole Miss 35-3 in Oxford to end the regular season on a high note, though a loss to Iowa in the Outback Bowl soured that a bit. As is the case with the entire field, Year Two has not been as magical for Joe Moorehead.

With all eyes on Maurer, what have opposing quarterbacks done against the Bulldogs this season?

Team	Cmp	Att	Pct	Yds	YPA	TD	INT	Result
Louisiana	24	39	61.54%	267	6.85	1	1	L 38-28
So. Miss.	18	26	69.23%	234	9.00	2	2	L 38-15
Kansas St.	10	18	55.56%	123	6.83	1	0	W 31-24
Kentucky	15	41	36.59%	232	5.66	0	1	L 28-13
Auburn	16	21	76.19%	335	15.95	2	0	W 56-23

Obviously, Bo Nix skews the totals a bit. But so does Sawyer Smith on the other end of the spectrum. On the year, Mississippi State’s 8.1 YPA allowed ranks 102nd in college football. The Bulldogs also have only nine sacks in five games, three coming against Smith and Kentucky.

What’s been most helpful to Mississippi State’s defense: getting off the field on third down, where opponents are converting just 31.4%, 23rd best for a defense. The Vols went 5-of-12 against Georgia; Guarantano was 1-of-3 in late action, though one of those plays was a 3rd-and-20 after a Maurer sack, so the runs go to him.

The Bulldogs have also turned away the opposition five times in 20 red zone appearances, an impressive 75% scoring percentage allowed. But 13 of those 15 scores were touchdowns, making Bob Shoop’s defense feast or famine in the red zone.

Will this be a breath of fresh air for Tennessee’s freshman quarterback after facing Florida and Georgia? The Vols’ young offensive line is banged up, and Mississippi State had last week off. It’s tough to pick Tennessee when the Vols have only beaten Chattanooga. But if you’re looking for a real live opportunity – on a number of levels – this is it.

Go Vols.

We’ve mentioned the struggles Vol quarterbacks faced when making their first start in the middle of a season: Jarrett Guarantano, Josh Dobbs, Nathan Peterman, and Justin Worley all failed to lead a touchdown drive in their first appearance as a starter. Brian Maurer passed that test with flying colors. So, what do mid-season replacements tend to do in their second start?

Guarantano’s second start was at #1 Alabama in 2017. It’s an unfair data point, but here it is anyway: 9-of-16 (56.3%) for 44 yards (2.8 ypa) with no touchdowns and an interception. For the third game in a row and the second under Guarantano, the Vols failed to score an offensive touchdown (though Rashaan Gaulden got six points and two digits).

If you’ll allow game three, Guarantano got much better. At Kentucky the following Saturday, he was 18-of-23 (78.3%) for 242 yards (10.5 ypa). He didn’t throw a touchdown (or an interception), but Ty Chandler did crack the end zone twice. The Vols attempted six field goals, Cimaglia made four of them, but Kentucky prevailed 29-26.

In 2013, Josh Dobbs also went from the frying pan to the fire in his second start. After failing to produce a touchdown drive in a 31-3 loss at #9 Missouri, the Vols returned home to play #9 Auburn. Dobbs’ numbers were about the same: 16-of-25 (64%) for 128 yards (5.1 ypa) with no touchdowns and an interception, plus 10 carries for 50 yards. The Vols did take a 13-6 lead on the first play of the second quarter on a Rajion Neal run, then used a pick six just before halftime to close within 27-20. But Auburn finished the game on a 28-3 run.

Justin Worley’s second start came against MTSU in 2011, a 2-10 Blue Raiders squad. In the frat house kicker game – shout out Derrick Brodus and Alcoa High School – Worley went 23-of-32 (71.9%) for 291 yards (9.1 ypa) with a touchdown in a 24-0 victory.

So the good news: no one got worse. Guarantano played Bama but was much better in start three, Dobbs played two top ten teams and was about the same, Worley was much better against a bad team. That’s a good precedent for Maurer, who gets to take a breath between Georgia and Alabama in what’s become a big game against Mississippi State. His first start already exceeded historical expectations. The same history says he doesn’t have to take a step backward in start number two.

One of my favorite things about New Testament Greek is the way joy (chara) acts as a function of grace (charis). Happiness is circumstantial, etc., but joy is rooted in the idea and presence of grace: the one gives cause for the other.

I like this idea because sharing in joy together – to rejoice (chairo) – comes with the notion that you’ve been through some stuff together. A shared awareness of one’s need for grace helps create the opportunity to celebrate when you have it.

Plenty of hearts have been blessed around here this fall, the latest of a dozen that’s made us all queasy. We’ve been doing this long enough now to know hope always comes back at the start of each season; that’s what it does, and what we do. But it died in record time this year, with immediate resurrections denied by our Mormon friends at the last minute and all the old familiar places in Gainesville.

Capital-H Hope is what Phillip Fulmer hired Jeremy Pruitt for, eschewing the safety of Les Miles and the familiarity of Tee Martin for a guy who might win championships or might just be a really good defensive coordinator. The answer will continue to be, “We need more data,” for a while. That’s the message on the answering machine this season when you lose at Florida by 31 and feel bad about everything, and it’s still the message when you lose to Georgia by 29 and feel better about almost everything.

But along the way, we found a little more joy than we anticipated.

That’s one of the best things about joy, the surprise of it. We wrote on Friday that Jarrett Guarantano, Josh Dobbs, Nathan Peterman, and Justin Worley failed to produce a single touchdown drive in their first career starts as mid-season replacements. Brian Maurer, on play number six:

https://twitter.com/SECNetwork/status/1180629584548638720

Then, on the 10th play of the next drive, Maurer wasn’t even kind enough to let people get back in their seats after the end of the first quarter before throwing a dart between coverage in the end zone.

One of the biggest issues for this team has been red zone efficiency. Take out Chattanooga, and the Vols had 10 trips inside the 20 but only four touchdowns coming into the Georgia game: 2-for-4 against Georgia State, 2-for-4 against BYU, 0-for-2 against Florida. After failing to punch it in at the very end of the game against the Bulldogs, Tennessee is still 105th nationally in red zone touchdown percentage. But Maurer made an A+ throw in a crucial situation.

The kind of hope we really want may not bloom in full until the off-season, not as long as this year is yoked to the failures of September. Tennessee will want to get to six wins, though the fullness of that conversation needs to wait until we see what this team does against Mississippi State. But if the Vols do beat this week’s Bulldogs, then after whatever happens at 9:00 PM ET against Alabama, we’ll be talking about if this team can make a run to the postseason by winning four of its last five games. It would be a tall order for a young team; I said on our podcast last night that 5-7, at this point, would be a genuine accomplishment.

But along the way, we might have some fun.

Brian Maurer had some fun against #3 Georgia, now 17th in SP+ defense. The Tide are 11th in those ratings. The rest of the remaining schedule:

• Mississippi State 48th
• South Carolina 26th
• UAB 47th
• Kentucky 64th
• Missouri 7th
• Vanderbilt 109th

When Tyler Bray caught fire at the end of his freshman season, we talked about having to wait to see him get to Level 2: there was only so much you could believe when the opponents were Memphis, Ole Miss, Kentucky, and Vanderbilt. Those three SEC teams had defensive SP+ ratings between 71-75, and Memphis was 113th.

That won’t be the case with Maurer. He’ll get a heavy dose of the kind of competition Tennessee needs to rise to in the second tier of the SEC East. He’ll get Alabama, of course. And he’ll also get a Missouri team that is rolling on that side of the ball at the moment.

If enough pieces around him stay healthy, we’ll be able to draw at least slightly more reasonable conclusions about his play. When hope eventually blossoms for Tennessee, whether through an unlikely bowl run this year or more tangible progress in 2020, its first fruits are likely to come in games like these. Credit Pruitt, Maurer, and everyone involved for taking a situation that felt mighty hopeless and injecting some genuine joy along the way.

We’re unlikely to forget Tennessee’s need for grace this year, and in particular Maurer’s. He’ll still have plenty of freshman moments in him, I’m sure. Hope, even if beneath the surface, is present. But the Vols now approach this Saturday with a little more than a bad combination of nerves, desperation, and idiot optimism.

Now, we might get to have a little more fun.

We’ll probably all find out who’s starting for Tennessee within an hour of kickoff. If it’s Brian Maurer, interest will certainly rise, regardless of #3 Georgia on the other sideline. But Tennessee’s recent history suggests the magic bullet usually isn’t:

2017: Jarrett Guarantano vs South Carolina

• 11-of-18 (61.1%) for 133 yards (7.4 ypa), zero TD/INT

Four of those completions and 72 of those yards came in the final 1:13, with Guarantano taking advantage of South Carolina’s prevent defense. The Vols got looks at the end zone but couldn’t get in. Tennessee ran the ball 39 times to 19 passing attempts, kicked three field goals, and lost 15-9.

2013: Josh Dobbs at #9 Missouri

• 26 of 42 (61.9%) for 240 yards (5.7 ypa), zero TD, 2 INT

Dobbs also ran the ball seven times for 45 yards, but Tennessee never threatened in a 31-3 loss to a Missouri program we were probably still learning to take seriously. He was also forced into action due to injury.

2013: Nathan Peterman at #19 Florida

• 4-of-11 (36.3%) for 5 yards (0.5 ypa), zero TD, 2 INT

No need to beat a dead horse here.

2011: Justin Worley vs #13 South Carolina

• 10-of-26 (38.5%) for 105 yards (4.0 ypa), zero TD, 2 INT

The Vols turned a muffed South Carolina punt into a 3-0 early lead, then didn’t score again. Tennessee was turned away on 4th-and-1 at the South Carolina 44 late in the first half, then had 1st-and-Goal at the Carolina 2 after an interception by Prentiss Waggner. Worley threw an interception two plays later, and Carolina responded with an infamous 20-play drive for an insurmountable 14-3 lead.

2010: Tyler Bray at Memphis

• 19-of-33 (57.6%) for 333 yards (9.8 ypa), 5 TD, 0 INT

Pro tip: it helps to play 2010 Memphis in your first career start!

2008: Nick Stephens at #10 Georgia

• 13-of-30 (43.3%) for 208 yards (6.9 ypa), 2 TD, 0 INT

Though no one would master the Clawfense, this wasn’t bad, really. Georgia easily took away the run (15 carries, 1 yard) but Stephens kept Tennessee around all day.

2006: Jonathan Crompton at #11 Arkansas

• 16-of-34 (47.1%) for 174 yards (5.1 ypa), 2 TD, 1 INT

Crompton’s first glimpse is remembered fondly when he replaced a gimpy Erik Ainge the week before against LSU, then almost led the Vols to victory on the strength of throwing deep to Robert Meachem. The next week at Arkansas he was far less successful; Ainge returned from injury to guide the Vols to the Outback Bowl.

The combined stat line in the first-time starts from Guarantano, Dobbs, Peterman, and Worley (three of them coming against Top 20 teams): 51-of-97 (52.6%) for 483 yards (4.98 ypa), zero touchdowns, six interceptions. And it’s not just passing touchdowns: JG, Dobbs, Peterman, and Worley failed to lead a single offensive touchdown drive in those four games.

If it’s Maurer, we should take the same long view for the program and place it on his shoulders. Anything he does well would be progress compared to his contemporaries. And if it’s nothing but struggle? He might still grow into anything from Worley’s respectable performances under Butch Jones or Peterman’s under Chaney at Pitt. And hey, that Dobbs kid did pretty well the next time he was a mid-season replacement starter.

You absolutely never know. But for a mid-season replacement against a ranked team, we are unfortunately good at guessing. As with everything else Tennessee right now, there’s definitely the opportunity to surprise. Maybe he will. If Maurer does, delightful. If he doesn’t, the better data point will come next week.

One of the most popular things I ever wrote in eight years at Rocky Top Talk has an unfortunate headline in hindsight: What’s Wrong With Tennessee Football Has Nothing To Do With Derek Dooley.

We published it in 2011 after the Vols lost 14-3 to #9 South Carolina in Justin Worley’s first start, an effort to look at the big picture in the midst of what felt like a lost season. Tennessee lit the flames of expectation that year with a win over Cincinnati, then lost Justin Hunter the next week and Tyler Bray two games later. As a result, the Vols lost by 31 to #1 LSU, 31 to #2 Alabama, then failed to score a touchdown against the Gamecocks.

Dooley, of course, eventually became part of what was wrong with Tennessee football. The Vols lost at #8 Arkansas by 42, beat Vanderbilt in Bray’s return, then infamously lost to Kentucky’s WR/QB. Dooley hired Sal Sunseri to run his defense, and that was that.

But the truth of Tennessee’s struggles up to that point remained: a three-year recruiting failure in 2007, 2008, and 2009. The 2007 class was ranked third and universally praised. The 2008 class was a disaster from the word go, ranked 35th with Fulmer still at the helm. And Lane Kiffin’s 2009 class lost half of its signees by the time I wrote that story in October 2011. From 2007-09 Tennessee signed 31 blue chip players (four or five-stars). One was Eric Berry. But only two others became long-term starters.

So that was the argument: Tennessee is losing games because the other teams have better players.

If long-term starters is still the benchmark, then what Jeremy Pruitt is working with isn’t exactly the same situation, or as easy to rationalize. Butch Jones’ 2016 class – the guys who should be seniors this year – included 10 blue chips in a class of 23 (43.5%). Seven of those guys became/are consistent starters, including Nigel Warrior, Jarrett Guarantano, Marquez Callaway, and Daniel Bituli on this year’s team. Add in Jonathan Kongbo, Alexis Johnson, and some starting duties for Ryan Johnson. The Vols lost only Marquill Osborne to transfer.

One of the biggest problems Pruitt faces right now is the 2017 class. Signed in the fading light of the Butch Jones era, Tennessee landed only five blue chip players in a class of 28 (17.9%). The two highest-rated signees are Trey Smith and Ty Chandler. But the other three blue chips – Maleik Gray, Eric Crosby, and Will Ignont – have transferred, retired from football, and failed to make the travel squad to Florida.

A significant percentage of what Tennessee is trying to get done right now is with three-star players from this class: LaTrell Bumphus, Matthew Butler, Kivon Bennett, Theo Jackson, Riley Locklear, K’Rojhn Calbert, Josh Palmer, Shawn Shamburger (and Brent Cimaglia!).

Pruitt’s quick turnaround 2018 class – the first to wrestle with the early signing period – landed eight blue chips in a class of 22 (36.4%). The highest-rated signee was J.J. Peterson, who remains a mystery. But the other seven guys are all already starters or would be if they were healthy: Alontae Taylor, Greg Emerson, Bryce Thompson, Dominick Wood-Anderson, Jordan Allen, Emmitt Gooden, and Jerome Carvin.

And Pruitt is already giving significant snaps to his three highest-rated signees from 2019 – Darnell Wright, Wanya Morris, Henry To’o To’o – plus Eric Gray.

Current recruiting is the very best reason to hope in Pruitt. The 2019 class had a dozen blue chips in a class of 22 (54.5%), the best ratio since Fulmer in 2005. The 2020 commitment list includes seven blue chips with 14 on the board (including a two-star long snapper). This is championship-level recruiting.

The Vols, of course, also have to develop that talent. Butch Jones recruited at a championship level in 2014 and 2015 and came close in 2016, but we all know that story. The ratios are already better with Pruitt, but right now the Vols are facing a significant hole from the class of 2017. And no matter what, the Vols have more talent than Georgia State and BYU.

At the end of the recruiting decade, I pulled Tennessee’s highest-rated signee at every position since the class of 2010 via 247’s database:

QB	Jarrett Guarantano
RB	Jalen Hurd
WR	Da’Rick Rogers
WR	Justin Hunter
WR	Josh Malone
TE	Daniel Helm
OT	Darnell Wright
OG	Trey Smith
C	James Stone
OG	Jackson Lampley
OT	Wanya Morris
DL	Kyle Phillips
DL	Kahlil McKenzie
DL	Shy Tuttle
LB	J.J. Peterson
LB	Henry To’oTo’o
LB	Quavaris Crouch
CB	Alontae Taylor
CB	Marquill Osborne
NB	Byron Moore
FS	Nigel Warrior
SS	Todd Kelly Jr.

You’ll notice a couple of things here. First of all, nine of these guys are on the current roster, including three starting offensive linemen and all three linebackers. Kudos to Pruitt’s staff for recruiting so well at those positions.

Of the remaining 13 guys, the same number (five) left the program as made it from Tennessee to the NFL (Hunter, Malone, Stone, Phillips, Tuttle). The Vols’ biggest NFL talents of this decade – Cordarrelle Patterson, Derek Barnett, and Alvin Kamara – fall just outside the highest rated signees at their positions.

So, as with all things, you really have to wait and see. The current team struggles, in part, from recruiting at the end of Butch Jones’ tenure and the nature of a coaching change with an early signing period. The brightest spots for Pruitt are recruiting wins, including plenty of freshmen on this year’s team. The nearly lost blue chip class of 2017 hurts right now, but it can’t be all of Tennessee’s problems. You have to hope that all of this gets better at the same time: Pruitt’s coaching and development skills alongside really strong recruiting classes, with both parts of that equation clearly still finding their way.

2019 has become about 2020; really, it’s about 2021 and beyond. If the Vols somehow find a way to get to six wins this season, we’ll rightfully celebrate it. But Tennessee’s win expectancy hovered around 4.2 on our site before the Gators won 34-3. With Georgia and Alabama still to come, Tennessee is looking at a scenario where it needs to go 5-1 against Mississippi State, South Carolina, UAB, Kentucky, Missouri, and Vanderbilt. I think the Vols can win games in that stretch to extend the conversation. But five-of-six asks for a consistency that seems beyond what this team has shown itself capable of.

There’s a mental concern too: how long will this team keep fighting at 1-3 when it seemed to fold after Guarantano got knocked out of the Missouri game last year at 5-5? Wes Rucker advocates holding out on a full-on youth movement until after the Alabama game, while playing upperclassmen with NFL futures to help their stock. Something like that could still represent progress in the back half of the season when the schedule does lighten just a bit, but you’ll still need some kind of investment from both upper-and-underclassmen for progress to show up.

As others have pointed out (including the most well-rounded take I’ve seen from Andy Staples at The Athletic), it’s a fairly simple equation for Pruitt and Tennessee in the big picture. It’s in no one’s best interests for the Vols to move on from him this season. From a competitiveness standpoint, the Vols are at the lowest point of my lifetime; we said even after BYU it’s best to measure progress from the bottom instead of to the top. It’s funny: I thought that might be a little more freeing when watching Tennessee against Florida, but so many of the mistakes still bring the same feelings of frustration.

Pushing the reset button right now just adds time to the clock. The Vols need to compete well enough, with some wins thrown in, for Pruitt to continue to recruit at a reasonable level. I’m not worried about Tennessee’s national ranking of 22 in recruiting for 2020 right now; the Vols are still at the blue chip ratio target of 50% in that class, which would make two years in a row. But with only 14 commits at the moment, will they be able to stay there or close to it as we approach the signing period? One thing slowing the process right now is the makeup of Butch Jones’ final recruiting class, when the Vols couldn’t parlay any momentum left from consecutive 9-4 ranked finishes into anything better than five blue chip players in a class of 27 in 2017.

Even before Georgia State, we thought it was true the guys who would ultimately decide Pruitt’s fate weren’t the upperclassmen on this roster. That was especially true at quarterback. Fans are going to be quick to anoint Harrison Bailey, and we’ll see. But you can at least create reasonable competition if you play Brian Maurer, whether now or after Alabama. Guarantano does have a year left, but might also find a graduate transfer situation appealing after all he’s been through.

It will always be worth pointing out that Jim Chaney has been part of the two biggest QB reclamation projects I’ve ever seen involving Tennessee players. Jonathan Crompton was 61-of-122 (50%) for 667 yards (5.5 ypa) with four touchdowns and six interceptions against UCLA, Florida, Ohio, and Auburn in 2009. And then he played himself into the NFL Draft in the second half of the season. Any conversation about Guarantano’s performance being the worst we’ve ever seen has clearly forgotten Nathan Peterman in the same venue six years earlier; Chaney was with him the first of two years at Pitt, which led to eight NFL appearances.

The difference with Guarantano is he appears to be getting worse. And with Georgia and Alabama on the horizon, the windows for improvement are shrinking.

We’re also aware a youth movement is already underway in several spots. Guys who will ultimately be involved in the big picture conversation about Pruitt – Eric Gray, multiple offensive linemen, Henry To’o To’o, most of the secondary – are already in the mix. Unfortunately, there aren’t many of those options on the defensive line, where the Vols simply are who they are: a group replacing every starter and without Emmitt Gooden that cannot generate any pressure against an SEC offensive line by themselves. The youth movement there is in high school: BJ Ojulari and Dominic Bailey join Harrison Bailey and safety Keshawn Lawrence as Tennessee’s highest-rated commits.

But you also can’t roll into 2020 expecting to make decisions about Pruitt based on what freshmen defensive linemen do in the SEC. This whole thing is going to last longer than anyone wanted to get figured out.

If Pruitt continues to recruit reasonably well, you at least let him put more talent on the roster and really see if he can grow into this job. He stays long enough to decrease the buyout and do the thing Kiffin, Dooley, and Butch Jones failed to do: leave the program in better shape than they found it.

There’s also a long-term scheduling note here, one that hasn’t paid off for Tennessee this season but might in the future. The Vols are going to be massive underdogs when they go to Oklahoma next September. But after that, there’s a relative dip in Tennessee’s schedule over the next few years. All those jokes about Tennessee and Arkansas needing to play each other for morale will come true next season when the Vols go to Fayetteville. In 2021, it’s Ole Miss in Knoxville. And the Vols will go home-and-home with Pittsburgh in 2021 and 2022, followed by the return match with BYU in Provo in 2023. There are no guarantees, but at least Pruitt isn’t facing the same scheduling gauntlet Butch Jones saw (Oregon, Oklahoma, Oklahoma, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech in the non-conference; Auburn, Ole Miss, Arkansas, Texas A&M, LSU from the SEC West).

The one assumption for this season was progress. That’s still important, it just looks a lot different. The real goal now is maintaining investment: with players, with recruits, and with fans week-to-week. Can the Vols compete enough to make us believe they have a chance to win when we turn on the TV against everyone other than Georgia and Alabama? The Vols clearly weren’t beating the Gators, but going forward you’d like to see less of four turnovers and four personal fouls and more winning and losing honestly. It’s the best way to continue to make an honest assessment of Jeremy Pruitt, and the reality of where this program is right now.