Author Archives: Will Shelton

(furiously deletes 700 words on the Music City Bowl)

Actually, let me say this: Nashville’s bowl runs a good show. I went in 2010 and really enjoyed it (until the end, of course). I think it’s good for the state to have the Music City Bowl do well. And there are seasons in rebuild mode when it really isn’t a bad destination for the Vols, like 2010.

That just wasn’t the case when the Gator Bowl was a realistic possibility, which it has been since Tennessee beat South Carolina, or a rightful one, which it has been since Tennessee finished a 6-1 run to end the regular season.

And now, after much deliberation and plenty of false starts:

https://twitter.com/Vol_Football/status/1203789190325919744

Here’s what I wrote when it looked like Nashville:

The Music City Bowl is not as prestigious as the Gator Bowl, full stop. It may be more desirable to individual fans depending on where you live, it may pay a little more, and it may create a nice recruiting setup in the mid-state. And a bowl can change its own fate – see the Peach Bowl, once a sign of a disappointing season at UT, now a New Year’s Six bowl – and perhaps Nashville will earn that reputation. None of that changes the prestige of January vs December 30, or the fact that Nashville’s bowl is 21 years old and Jacksonville’s has been played since the end of World War II.

It looked like the Vols were just going to be on the wrong side of bad luck. There’s no argument for Kentucky as a more deserving or desirable option than Tennessee in a vacuum. But in 2019, circumstances appeared to be working for the Cats and against the Vols. The Gator Bowl took an ACC team three years in a row and was contractually obligated, whatever that’s worth, to take a Big Ten team. Because of the final College Football Playoff rankings, Indiana was the best available option. In any other year of the last six, Indiana and Kentucky play in Nashville. But with the Music City obligated to an ACC team on the other half of their deal with Jacksonville, and Louisville being a good fit there…we didn’t have to like Nashville, but it at least made sense.

The Vols also just missed the Outback Bowl by 10-3 Wisconsin staying at #8 in the final College Football Playoff poll and Penn State staying ahead of an Auburn team that beat Oregon and Alabama. If the New Year’s Six used the AP poll instead, #9 Auburn would be in the Cotton Bowl, Alabama in the Citrus Bowl, and the Vols in the Outback Bowl. Instead, we have three Big Ten teams in the New Year’s Six and the SEC’s teams going down a peg.

But the Vols didn’t fall any further than that, earning the January bid to Jacksonville at the 11th hour and 58th minute. And here’s something we can say with greater certainty now: even if the Vols beat Georgia State and BYU to open the year, they’re probably still playing Indiana in the Gator Bowl. Tennessee would be ranked, but still in the Group of Six and still less deserving than Auburn. You’d always prefer to be 9-3 than 7-5, but perhaps the Vols learned a few things along the way this season that will prove to be more valuable than a pair of early escapes would’ve revealed.

Also: now we’re in-between two scenarios. The Outback Bowl was desirable not just for its own prestige, but a shot at a ranked opponent like Minnesota. Tennessee is hot, and did beat three bowl-bound teams plus 6-6 Missouri in this run. But the Vols only faced three ranked teams this season. Via the media guide, that hasn’t happened to Tennessee since 2003 (#17 Florida, #8 Georgia, #6 Miami). Tennessee would’ve been an underdog to the Golden Gophers by around eight points in SP+. It’s a bigger ask on a question this team hasn’t answered yet.

On the other hand, play Louisville in the Music City, and you’re likely a big favorite (around -10 in SP+). Given what our friends from Kentucky just did to them, you have little to gain here.

Instead, it’s Indiana. The name doesn’t do much traditionally in football, but the 8-4 Hoosiers would be a four-point favorite in SP+. It’s an also receiving votes bowl in the Coaches’ Poll; a great performance from either team could earn them a ranked finish.

It’s not a huge opportunity to level up like the Outback Bowl. But Indiana would likely be Tennessee’s best win this season. It’s the right bowl, and the right opportunity.

And it’s January, in primetime, the only game happening on the evening of January 2. This Tennessee team, led by its seniors, has given the program hope when it seemed furthest away. They can be forever tied to a turnaround if the Vols to follow in the 2020’s continue down this path. The Gator Bowl can be a bridge. I’m thrilled to see if they can cross it.

See you in the new year.

Here’s what we think after the release of the final College Football Playoff poll before the real thing on Sunday:

https://twitter.com/CFBPlayoff/status/1202018158338555906

Let’s start with the simple: if Ohio State, LSU, and Clemson win, they’re in. For Tennessee’s purposes, it may not matter if the committee chooses Utah or Oklahoma if they both win. But because Baylor is ranked six spots ahead of Oregon, it’s better for the Vols if Oklahoma earns the #4 spot.

That scenario would give you the top three and the Sooners in the playoff. The Sugar Bowl would take Georgia (assuming the Dawgs don’t drop below a Florida team they beat) and Baylor.

The Rose Bowl would take Utah and either Wisconsin or Penn State. Assuming a team that does not play this week will not jump another team that does not play this week, Florida has the advantage for the Orange Bowl by being ranked ahead of Penn State, and would probably play Virginia (if there are zero non-Clemson, non-Notre Dame ACC teams ranked in the final playoff poll, the Orange Bowl gets to pick itself, but Virginia is the most deserving no matter what happens against the Tigers).

From there, the Cotton Bowl will take the next-highest-ranked team. And this is where everything will get decided as far as Tennessee and the Outback Bowl: is that next-highest-ranked team Wisconsin or Auburn? Or, if the committee takes Utah over Oklahoma, is it Wisconsin, Auburn, or Baylor?

If it’s the Tigers, the Tua-less Tide go to Orlando, and Tennessee’s path to the Outback Bowl is clear. If Wisconsin is ranked ahead of Auburn in the final poll (or Baylor if the committee puts Utah in the playoff), Alabama and Auburn should split the Citrus and Outback, sending the Vols back to the Jacksonville conversation.

Also, if it’s Wisconsin, the Big Ten bowl opponents cycle up, meaning you’re not going to catch anything better than Indiana or an ACC trade-off in the Gator Bowl. If you want to see the Vols level up, it looks like that can only happen in Tampa now.

So, in order of what would be most helpful for Tennessee:

• Ohio State blows out #8 Wisconsin enough for them to fall behind #11 Auburn in the final poll
• The committee takes Oklahoma for its final playoff spot
• Or, the committee takes Utah, and Oklahoma blows out #7 Baylor enough for them to fall behind #11 Auburn in the final poll (an odd scenario probably requiring Utah to simultaneously blow out Oregon)

You get that, you should get Tampa. The Athletic reported earlier today that the Citrus Bowl was locked in on Michigan, meaning Minnesota is still the most likely opponent in the Outback Bowl.

At the start of fall camp, our GRT Expected Win Total Machine came back at an average of 6.9 wins. We ran it again the week leading up to Georgia State, and August optimism drove it north to 7.2.

And then it hung out in the twos and threes for a while.

But here, at the end, Tennessee may have gotten the most bang for their 7-5 buck: a 6-1 run, the only loss a could’ve-been at Bama, and lessons one might not have learned along any other way. Not all 7-5’s are created equal; if you’re looking for the one that helps Tennessee most in 2020, this might be it.

But first, the final piece of 2019’s puzzle. And there’s a chance it too could be the one that helps the Vols most next season: January 1 in Florida should mean a shot at the most meaningful victory of the year.

The Straightforward Path & Four SEC Teams in the CFP/NY6

No drama, all chalk this week could lead us to something like this:

• College Football Playoff: Ohio State, LSU, Clemson, Oklahoma/Utah
• Sugar: Georgia vs Oklahoma/Baylor
• Rose: Penn State vs Utah/Oregon
• Orange: Florida vs Virginia
• Cotton: Alabama vs Group of Five

(For more on automatic bids and the SEC selection process, see last week’s bowl projections)

Automatic bids leave few questions here. After the four playoff teams, only two at-large selections are available: the highest-ranked SEC/Big Ten team to go opposite an ACC school in Miami, and the highest-ranked remaining team to face the best Group of Five team in JerryWorld. If Penn State is ranked higher than Wisconsin in the final College Football Playoff poll, the Nittany Lions will go to the Rose Bowl and clear the path for both Florida and Alabama to play in the New Year’s Six.

If this happens, Auburn will go to the Citrus Bowl. From there, the SEC’s Group of Six will choose between Tennessee, Texas A&M, Kentucky, and Mississippi State.

Last week, the assumption was the Outback Bowl would take 7-5 Texas A&M with losses to Clemson, Alabama, Auburn, Georgia, and LSU. But the Aggies were non-competitive in a 50-7 loss, and have become popular in projections to stay home and play in the Texas Bowl. Remember: A&M played in the Gator Bowl last year. That performance against LSU makes them even less likely to return there in my opinion.

If, in fact, Tennessee is now more desirable than Texas A&M, the Aggies could go to Houston and clear a path to Tennessee in Tampa. The only way I can see the Vols in the Outback Bowl is if four SEC teams are in the CFP/NY6. Getting four there means the Big Ten gets just two, which we’ll assume to be Ohio State and Penn State. That scenario should then send Wisconsin to the Citrus Bowl, where they haven’t been since 2014. And that would make Minnesota the most likely opponent in the Outback Bowl: the Gophers have never played in Tampa, and simplifies what comes next with Iowa and Michigan available for the Holiday and Gator Bowls. Tennessee vs Minnesota (currently #15 in the AP poll) in the Outback Bowl is now the projection from both ESPN analysts.

What to watch here on Tuesday: how close are Penn State, Wisconsin, and Minnesota in the College Football Playoff poll? Does the committee reward Minnesota’s head-to-head win over Penn State the way the AP poll did not (PSU 12, Minnesota 15)? Is Wisconsin so far up the ladder that a competitive game with Ohio State could keep them in the New Year’s Six mix?

What if only three SEC teams make the CFP/NY6?

Let’s say the playoff committee really takes it out on Alabama and drops the Tide way down the list and out of New Year’s Six contention. If a Big Ten team earns an at-large bid to the Orange or Cotton, the quality of opponent other SEC teams would face will drop, and we’re all going back one in the pecking order without a fourth SEC team in the CFP/NY6.

In this scenario, let’s say Wisconsin plays a close game with Ohio State and stays ahead of Alabama in the final poll. The Badgers go to the Cotton Bowl, knocking the Tide back to the Citrus Bowl. That knocks Auburn to the Outback Bowl, and would in all likelihood send the Vols to Jacksonville. The Big Ten pecking order then goes like this: Minnesota to the Citrus Bowl, then a real conundrum for the Outback Bowl. The last three years Tampa had Iowa, Michigan, and Iowa. The Big Ten has written rules to push for five different teams in their second-tier bowls in six years. But the drop-off from Michigan and Iowa to everyone else is steep. If they just kept it straightforward, you’d have Michigan in the Outback Bowl, Iowa in the Holiday Bowl and Indiana in the Gator Bowl. This is the scenario 247 takes for Tennessee: Vols vs Hoosiers in Jacksonville. Jason Kirk at Banner Society still has the Vols in Charlotte for reasons that are unclear to me, but does make the ACC/Big Ten swap we discussed last week to send Indiana to the Music City Bowl to face Kentucky (win-win). This week Jason sends Florida State instead of Virginia Tech to the Gator Bowl, where he has them playing Western Kentucky. I cannot fathom the SEC sending the Vols to Charlotte but leaving Jacksonville void.

So, to recap:

• If the SEC gets four teams in the CFP/NY6, the Vols would be a favorite for the Outback Bowl in Tampa, with #15 Minnesota the most likely opponent. This scenario likely depends on Texas A&M going to the Texas Bowl.
• If the SEC gets three teams in the CFP/NY6, the Vols would be a favorite for the Gator Bowl in Jacksonville, with Indiana or an ACC #3 substitute like Florida State or Virginia Tech the most likely opponent.
• On Tuesday, keep an eye on Penn State and Alabama in the College Football Playoff poll. I think you want Alabama still in range for the New Year’s Six, and Penn State in position to make the Rose Bowl over Minnesota and Wisconsin after they presumably lose to Ohio State.

More to come after Tuesday night.

Tennessee is bowl eligible for just the sixth time in the last 12 years, the first time since 2016, and the first time since 2015 when you’re actually looking forward to it. If the Vols beat Vanderbilt and win their bowl game, an 8-5 finish would be the third-best season for Tennessee in these last dozen years.

There’s a lot to celebrate, some of which includes not just postseason eligibility but the opportunity to play in January. Those two things seemed improbable and impossible after the Vols were blown out at Florida in a 1-3 start. But thanks to the good work of both Tennessee and the SEC’s upper tier, a January 1 date in Florida is the most likely scenario for the Vols if they handle Vanderbilt.

First, how Tennessee gets there. Then, who they might play.

SEC Bowl Tie-Ins: CFP, NY6 & Orlando

We start with the College Football Playoff. LSU is currently atop those rankings, with the regular season finale against Texas A&M and the SEC Championship left to go. Georgia was fourth last week and should stay there; the Dawgs get 3-8 Georgia Tech, then LSU.

If LSU beats Texas A&M, they should be in regardless of what happens in Atlanta. If Georgia beats Georgia Tech, the Dawgs should be in if they beat LSU. If LSU beats Georgia, Alabama could re-enter the fray if they beat Auburn on Saturday. The 11-1 Tua-less Tide would be in the conversation with Utah and the Oklahoma/Baylor rematch victor if they all win out.

Regardless, the SEC will almost certainly have one team in the College Football Playoff, and possibly two.

From there, the Sugar Bowl is required to take the next highest-ranked SEC team in the CFP poll. This will almost certainly be Georgia or Alabama.

The Sugar Bowl will take from the SEC and Big 12, the Rose Bowl from the Big Ten and Pac-12. The Orange Bowl will take the next highest-ranked ACC team (which was none of them last week; the assumption is this will be the winner of Virginia/Virginia Tech after they then lose to Clemson).

The other team in the Orange Bowl is the next-highest-ranked at-large team from the SEC, Big Ten, or Notre Dame. Because of that, it matters less if the league gets two teams in the playoff this year: either one of Georgia/Alabama makes the playoff and the other goes to the Sugar Bowl, or neither of them make the playoff but one goes to the Sugar and one could go to the Orange. You’d need the lesser of Georgia/Alabama to be ranked higher than the lesser of Penn State and the winner of this week’s Wisconsin/Minnesota game.

Finally, the Cotton Bowl will take the top Group of Five team and the highest-rated available at-large team. That could be the aforementioned lesser of Penn State/Wisconsin/Minnesota. But it could also be Florida, currently 11th in the CFP poll.

Translation: the SEC should have either three or four teams in the College Football Playoff and New Year’s Six.

The Citrus Bowl is next, and gets first pick of all the remaining SEC teams. If Florida makes it four in the CFP/NY6, Auburn is the natural choice here. If the Gators are left out of the CFP/NY6, they’re likely to end up in Orlando.

SEC Bowl Tie-Ins: The Group of Six

That’s the Outback, Gator, Music City, Belk, Liberty, and Texas Bowls. And I list them this way because that’s typically been their order of prestige. The league office says, “In consultation with SEC member institutions, as well as these six bowls, the conference will make the assignments for the bowl games in the pool system.”

This has never meant that all six are created equal. The old pecking order puts the Outback at the top of the list, and that’s held form: a ranked SEC team has played in Tampa seven of the last eight years. If Florida is in the Citrus Bowl, Auburn should be the choice here; the Tigers haven’t been to the Outback Bowl since 2014.

But if the league gets four teams in the NY6/CFP and Auburn goes to the Citrus Bowl, the pool of available teams changes:

• Tennessee (7-5 if they beat Vanderbilt)
• Texas A&M (7-5 if they lose to LSU)
• Kentucky (6-5 playing Louisville)
• Missouri (6-6 if they beat Arkansas, but ineligible at the moment)
• Mississippi State (6-6 if they beat Ole Miss)

You already don’t have enough teams to fill the allotment. You’re two short if Missouri remains ineligible. You’re three short if Ole Miss beats Mississippi State.

Given all of the above, Tennessee and Texas A&M are clearly the cream of this crop. Which brings me to the most important point: Texas A&M played in the Gator Bowl last year.

That being the case, if Auburn is in the Citrus Bowl and the league office is deciding between these five teams, it seems obvious to send A&M to Tampa. From there, the Gator Bowl is traditionally the next-highest in the pecking order; Jacksonville hosted ranked SEC teams three of the last six years and Tennessee and Georgia in two of the other three. By contrast, the Music City Bowl has hosted a ranked SEC team once since 2002. The Belk Bowl has hosted a ranked SEC team once since its agreement with the league in 2014. Last year #24 Missouri became the first ranked SEC team to play in the Liberty Bowl since the arrangement was renewed in 2006. And the Texas Bowl has hosted a ranked SEC team once since its arrangement with the league in 2015.

You can argue about the pecking order of Music City, Liberty, Belk, and Texas. But let’s not pretend the Group of Six doesn’t start with January in Florida.

And that being the case, Tennessee is going to Jacksonville.

If Auburn is in the Citrus Bowl, A&M goes to Tampa because they were in Jacksonville last year and the Vols go to Jacksonville. If Florida is in the Citrus Bowl, Auburn goes to Tampa for the first time since 2014, and the Vols go to Jacksonville because A&M was there last year.

Jason Kirk at Banner Society, who has done my favorite bowl projections for years, currently disputes this theory by sending A&M back to Jacksonville, Auburn to Tampa, and the Vols to Charlotte. The last time the Gator Bowl took the same team in consecutive years was West Virginia in 2004-05. The Outback Bowl took the Vols back-to-back in 2006-07. But it has not happened for either bowl in the last 12 years.

People smarter than me on the Tennessee side of things, including writers at VolQuest and the Jaguars’ backup quarterback, believe the Vols are headed to Jacksonville.

What could disrupt this scenario, besides a loss to Vanderbilt? Outside of total chaos like Georgia Tech beating Georgia, here’s the only scenario I can come up with:

• Auburn beats Alabama, Florida State beats Florida, and Oregon beats Utah in the Pac-12 title game
• CFP: LSU, Ohio State, Clemson, Oklahoma
• Sugar: Georgia vs Baylor
• Rose: Minnesota vs Oregon
• Orange: Penn State vs VT/UVA
• Cotton: Group of Five vs Utah

If there were only two SEC teams in the CFP/NY6, then in this scenario let’s say Auburn goes to the Citrus Bowl, but the Outback and Gator could choose Florida AND Alabama. It’s quite a longshot, but I’d imagine it would send Tennessee elsewhere. Given that Alabama is -4 and Florida is -17.5 right now, I think we’ll be alright here.

One other wrinkle, on the positive side. ESPN’s Mark Schlabach puts four SEC teams in the CFP/NY6, then sends Auburn to the Citrus Bowl. But instead of sending Texas A&M to Tampa, he sends them to Houston…to face Texas. Would the Aggies rather see their old rivals or play on January 1? Good question, but I’m sure the other powers that be would love it. If that happened, the Vols could get to the Outback Bowl, where Schlabach has them facing Penn State. Stay tuned.

Who Would We Play in Jacksonville?

Let’s assume it is in fact the Gator Bowl for Tennessee. Who are we likely to face there?

This is the final year of an arrangement between the Gator and Music City Bowls to each take three ACC and three Big Ten teams in a six-year period. Jacksonville took Iowa (and the Vols) in 2014, Penn State in 2015, then three ACC teams in a row. So they are contractually obligated to take a Big Ten team this year.

However, with bowls things like contracts and rules can be relaxed on college football’s selection Sunday. One scenario I’ve seen, including at Banner Society: the best available Big Ten team is Indiana, and the best available ACC team is the loser of Virginia/Virginia Tech. It’s only a four hour drive from Indiana to Nashville for the Music City Bowl, which sent a representative to see the Hoosiers last week. If it makes sense for all parties involved, those rules will be in theory only. Trading with the Music City would bring the #3 ACC team to Jacksonville, behind the Orange Bowl and the Camping World Bowl. Notre Dame can’t take the ACC spot in Miami, but can in the Camping World Bowl, so the theory is is VT/UVA winner to the Orange Bowl, Notre Dame to Camping World, VT/UVA loser to Jacksonville.

So while there’s an outside chance Tennessee might catch Virginia or Virginia Tech in Jacksonville, the more likely scenario is a Big Ten team. That conference also has rules in place to send its teams to as many different bowls as possible in a six year span. Iowa has been a popular pick for the Gator Bowl, but we remember seeing them there in 2014. The Athletic and the Des Moines Register have details on those contracts as they relate to the Hawkeyes.

Let’s look at the Big Ten picture as a whole. Ohio State seems bound for the CFP. The Rose Bowl takes the next highest-ranked Big Ten team, which will either be Penn State (10-2 post-Rutgers) or the Minnesota/Wisconsin winner. If another Big Ten team is ranked above the next-highest SEC team, they’d get the Orange Bowl but then forfeit their Citrus bowl slot to the ACC. This would not happen if a Big Ten team gets the Cotton Bowl.

Banner Society has Minnesota in the Rose and Penn State in the Cotton. Both ESPN projections leave Penn State out of the New Year’s Six, putting the Minnesota/Wisconsin winner in the Rose and SEC teams in the Orange and Cotton.

Once we get beyond there, the Big Ten’s rules about five different teams playing in bowls over six years come into play. Penn State, for example, played in the Citrus Bowl last year, so don’t look for them back in Orlando. If the Nittany Lions don’t earn a New Year’s Six spot, they’ll be in Tampa (not since 2011).

After the Citrus and the Outback, the Holiday Bowl interrupts the SEC/Big Ten love affair. Both Michigan and Iowa would come into play here: the Wolverines haven’t been to San Diego since 1994, the Hawkeyes since 1991. Then the Gator Bowl, which hasn’t had Michigan since 1991.

So the cleanest scenario would go something like this:

• CFP: Ohio State
• Rose: Minnesota/Wisconsin winner
• Citrus: Minnesota/Wisconsin loser
• Outback: Penn State
• Holiday: Iowa
• Gator: Michigan

If you like that look, watch the College Football Playoff poll this week and see where Penn State lands. If they’re behind Florida, that would be really good news for both the SEC and the chances to see Michigan in the Gator Bowl.

As we’ve noted, I still think the Vols will go to Jacksonville even if the Big Ten gets a third team in the CFP/NY6 and Florida goes to Orlando instead. But if that happens via the Cotton Bowl, Indiana (or an ACC team) becomes a possible alternative for the Gator Bowl.

So, to recap:

• Beat Vanderbilt, and the Vols should be in Jacksonville
• …unless Texas and Texas A&M want a piece of each other, which could send Tennessee to the Outback Bowl
• If Penn State ends up in the New Year’s Six, the Gator Bowl could get Indiana or an ACC team
• If Penn State isn’t in the New Year’s Six, Michigan seems most likely for the Gator Bowl
• It’s important for Penn State to be behind Florida in the new College Football Playoff poll if you want Michigan

First thing’s first: beat Vanderbilt.

A really fun step over the course of a rebuild is The Beat Down: your team has taken a few of those themselves, but now they’re ready and willing to put one on someone else (with a pulse). It kind of happened for Tennessee in 2014, when Josh Dobbs and the Vols beat Kentucky 50-16. But Dobbs was such a revelation against South Carolina the week before, that game still felt like the bigger story a week later. It kind of happened for Jeremy Pruitt’s Vols against Kentucky last season, but then the final two games tainted those memories and left us firmly in stage one or year zero or whatever you like.

So in a sense, the best examples we have of The Beat Down post-Kiffin/Crompton/Georgia came in bowl games: Iowa in the Taxslayer Bowl, then Northwestern in the Outback Bowl in consecutive years. Both times, those beat downs rightly foreshadowed seasons that had every opportunity to be special, though the Vols ultimately missed those moments for different reasons in 2015 and 2016. Bowls are the aftertaste, and can outlast the season’s body of work. The Beat Down is more appropriately applied when it happens in the regular season.

Tennessee beat Missouri by four points. The Tigers blocked two field goals, scored on a well-designed trick play, and recovered a Tim Jordan fumble inside their 30 yard line, to their credit.

To Tennessee’s credit, the Vols gained 526 yards in 73 plays, 7.21 yards per play. Missouri gained 280 yards in 66 plays, 4.24 yards per play. Both of those per-play numbers are the best the Vol offense and defense have done against FBS competition this season. The last time Tennessee out-gained a power five opponent by more than 246 yards was the aforementioned 2014 Kentucky game (+249).

So yeah, we missed The Beat Down, but would enjoy it very much if it showed up Saturday against Vanderbilt. After being underdogs against every power five foe post-BYU, the Vols opened at -20 against the Commodores. Tennessee has covered the spread six weeks in a row for the first time since at least 1990 (via the closing lines at covers.com). We’d have a lot of fun making it seven.

But as long as there’s any positive margin against Vanderbilt, the performance against Missouri should be remembered. Tennessee, on the road against a team with an elite statistical defense and a two-game winning streak by identical 50-17 scores in this series, dominated.

The only opportunity to get a marquee win in this streak was Alabama; the Vols got plenty of juice out of that one anyway. But now, with 7-5 on the horizon, January in Florida seems far more likely than not. And with it could come a match-up against a ranked foe, giving the 2019 Vols a chance to level up before passing the baton to their 2020 brethren.

More on that later. For now, consider how this story is more than just what the Vols have done since losing to Georgia State, BYU, and getting embarrassed at Florida.

• The Vols went 7-5 in 2009 and 8-4 in 2015 & 2016. Those are the only three seasons with 7+ regular season wins in 12 tries since 2008. Beat Vanderbilt, and these Vols will make it four.
• Beat Vanderbilt and win the bowl game, and 8-5 will be the third-best finish behind the two 9-4 seasons under Butch Jones since 2008.
• Beat Vanderbilt, and the Vols will go 4-0 against South Carolina, Missouri, Kentucky, and Vanderbilt for just the second time (2015) since the Tigers joined the SEC in 2012.
• Beat Vanderbilt, and the Vols will have five SEC wins for just the second time (2015) since 2008.

So yes, beat Vanderbilt. But when we do, don’t forget this performance. And don’t be tempted to believe this season is only progress when viewed through the lens of Georgia State. That loss will always be part of this team and Jeremy Pruitt’s story. It has a chance to be more beneficial than anything now. But the opportunity before this team to check off preseason goals and possibly earn a marquee test on January 1 would’ve been progress from the rest of this 12-year hiatus under any circumstances. Turning in a performance like last night’s is both icing on the cake, and a sign of what else could be.

Beat Vanderbilt.

Go Vols.

Heading into the 2012 season, whatever optimism we could muster included an assumption about Tennessee’s program against the middle tier of its schedule: not just that the Vols would restore order against Kentucky and Vanderbilt, but that Tennessee would take care of business against NC State and Mississippi State, because that’s what Tennessee should do.

Missouri joined the SEC that year, 8-5 the year before, champions of the Big 12 North the year before that, and not too far removed from flirting with the national title in 2007. But the Tigers were still part of that assumption: we’ll beat Missouri, because that’s what Tennessee should do.

Fans were out on Derek Dooley by the time we got to the Tigers, in part because he failed to beat Mississippi State along with a host of ranked foes. It took some of the air out of a thrilling four-overtime affair, won by the Tigers after the Vols blew a 28-14 third quarter lead. Missouri – like Arkansas, South Carolina, and Texas A&M – beat the Vols and our assumptions in our first meeting as conference rivals.

The Tigers ascended to the East title the following two seasons as Butch Jones started brick-by-bricking; Tennessee got Missouri in a hard-fought defensive slugfest in 2015 and the polar opposite of that game in 2016. But the last two years, Missouri dismantled Tennessee by identical 50-17 scores. The first was Butch Jones’ final game, but last year was far more costly: the Tigers knocked Jarrett Guarantano out of the game after two passes, then knocked the momentum out of Tennessee’s season.

Seven years and two coaches later, those assumption are gone. But it’s important that they start making their way back. And the only way to do that is for Tennessee to beat South Carolina, Kentucky, Missouri, and Vanderbilt on a regular basis.

Since the Tigers came into the league, the Vols have gone 4-0 against the second tier of the SEC East just once, in 2015. Consider the way this used to work:

• 38-1 vs South Carolina, Kentucky, and Vanderbilt from 1992-2004, which means the Vols won 38 in a row after losing at South Carolina in 1992.
• 15-6 vs South Carolina, Kentucky, and Vanderbilt from 2005-2011. Steve Spurrier’s arrival instantly changed the South Carolina game; the Vols were also beaten by an NFL quarterback in 2005 and a WR quarterback in 2011.
• 15-17 vs South Carolina, Kentucky, Missouri, and Vanderbilt from 2012-2019, including 2-0 so far this season.

Not only is 2015 Tennessee’s only sweep since Missouri joined the league, 2014 is the only time the Vols went 3-1 against this tier. To be sure, there were some really good South Carolina and Missouri teams in the first half of this decade. But the fact that Tennessee has a losing record against what used to be the tier of assumption proves the Vols have belonged in it.

The belief that Tennessee has to start beating these four teams regularly before it can worry about Florida, Georgia, and Alabama isn’t a casualty of Georgia State. The last time it looked like Tennessee separated themselves, it was this tier – South Carolina and Vanderbilt – that cost the Vols the most in 2016.

We’re not going back to 38-1. South Carolina was bowl eligible once in the 90’s; they’ve gone 14 times since 2000. Missouri came in on similar footing to Arkansas and already won the division twice. And Mark Stoops has elevated Kentucky to the point that a 6-6 finish this year might be a legitimate disappointment.

But the ice is getting thin everywhere outside of Lexington. Missouri, South Carolina, and Vanderbilt could all be breaking in a new coach next season. The timing is right for separation.

Let’s be clear: the Vols are underdogs tomorrow night. Tennessee has covered the spread five weeks in a row, and if they make it six it’ll be the first time since at least 1990. If the Vols fall to the Tigers in a close game and beat Vanderbilt, it’ll still be a job well done since October. But if we’re looking for separation language in the summer months, this is the win to get. Redemption can still be discussed at 6-6. Win tomorrow night and take care of Vanderbilt, and the conversation is resurrection. And we can go back to thinking about living dangerously in the upper tier of the SEC East; back to believing that’s where Tennessee belongs.