Author Archives: Will Shelton

If you just read the score, you might think, “Okay, tough loss on the road against a hot team, their strengths are our weaknesses, offensive rebounds, etc.” In reality, we saw a really good half of basketball from Tennessee in light of all those things. And then we saw an exceptional half of basketball from Mississippi State.

The Vols led 34-28 at the break despite no points from Jordan Bowden and Josiah James out with a groin injury. Put a pin in that; maybe we underrated his value on the defensive end. Against the Bulldogs the Vols went big in James’ absence: Uros Plavisc got his first start, and Tennessee didn’t shy away. The big fella had 16 points on 6-of-12 shooting and zero turnovers, a definite positive from today’s outing. Mississippi State’s Abdul Ado was saddled with foul trouble early, limiting their effectiveness. And the Vols came out hot from three.

Ado still only finished with six points and six rebounds. But having him on the floor alongside 6’10” Reggie Perry helped Mississippi State absolutely carve up what had been an excellent Tennessee defense in the second half. Perry finished with 24 points and 12 rebounds. But he was far from alone. Mississippi State scored in transition, broke hearts at the end of the shot clock, and repeatedly used great ball movement to get easy looks at the rim.

How easy: in the second half, the Bulldogs shot 18-of-26 from the floor. On the day they went 25-of-30 at the free throw line. They scored 58 points in the last 20 minutes.

Mississippi State had a Top 20 offense coming in, the best the Vols have faced outside LSU and Kansas. Their efficiency in the second half was relentless; it’s hard to identify a run or a big shot when they just all go in. Of their eight second half misses, ESPN’s play-by-play credits them with the rebound on six. And they only turned it over eight times the whole game. Will Warren cites it as Tennessee’s worst performance in defensive efficiency since 2004.

What percentage of blame do we assign where? Josiah’s absence? Plavsic adjusting to a much bigger role and the Vols sacrificing defense for offense? Tennessee’s defense relying heavily on shot blocking against a team where it wasn’t really available? Mississippi State’s excellence?

We’ll need more data on some of that, first and foremost how often the Vols will play Plavsic. Tennessee’s defense that rated 29th coming in now rates 48th coming out. The next test – at Alabama on Tuesday – won’t feature the same size or offensive efficiency, but the Tide do run at the third-fastest tempo in college basketball. Tennessee, as you know, does not. After that is Kentucky, which will present a similar challenge with Nick Richards and E.J. Montgomery in the post.

The real answers from what happened in the second half here – other than Mississippi State being awesome – are in front of us. The Vols just have fewer opportunities to find their own answers.

Six years ago tomorrow, Tennessee went to Alabama and put a beat down on the Tide 76-59. The win moved Cuonzo Martin’s squad to 14-7 (5-3), in position to capitalize on its last ten games and make the tournament with room to spare. In response, they lost four of their next six, a stretch that ended with an overtime loss at Texas A&M (KenPom 138 at tip-off). The Vols were 16-11 (7-7) with no opportunities left for marquee victories.

The lesson from that year is hopefully easier learned when we’re not dealing with petitions at the same time: don’t quit on your team until the math says they can’t earn an at-large bid. Those Vols won four in a row, the last three by an average of 31 points, then beat South Carolina by 15 in the second round of the SEC Tournament, then flirted with victory against 31-2 Florida on Saturday. That was all just enough to get them to Dayton. And as that team will also remind you, all you’ve gotta do is get in: four games later they were a disputed charge call from the Elite Eight.

So yeah, the current Tennessee team did themselves zero favors in losing to another Texas A&M team with a triple digit KenPom on another lucky three. What would’ve been a tidy resume on a soft bubble now has Tennessee’s first bad loss of the year. And as much as anything, it’s one more win the Vols won’t have for a team looking to get in on strength of schedule and late-season improvement, not a big win total.

What follows is (hopefully!) the beginning of an exercise we do around here whenever the Vols are on the bubble: how does the bracket’s past inform its present, and how likely are the Vols to hit those historical benchmarks for a team that gets in? The NCAA’s change from RPI to NET means we say goodbye to lots of research, since we haven’t had to worry about the bubble the last couple years.

Here’s the good news: if Tennessee is going to get to 19+ wins, they’re going to have to beat good teams along the way. If they’re going to beat good teams, it’s because they’re getting better. If they’re close, it’s because they got quality wins to get there. That argument really does feel like the only way in for this team. And, thanks to roster shakeup, it goes a little farther than the average bear: Tennessee has still only played five games with both Santiago Vescovi and Uros Plavsic.

So the same rules apply, as always: get better, get wins. The margin of error has simply shrunk to create incredibly meaningful outcomes every time out now. They’re not all must-win – an 11-0 finish probably means an SEC title! – but the Vols have eleven opportunities left to get as close to 20 wins as possible, facing a schedule that makes almost nothing easy.

So here, for as long as we can enjoy it, is what I think it’ll take to get the Vols on the bubble.

The Bottom Line: 19-15

Since the tournament expanded to 68 in 2011, eight teams earned an at-large bid with 14 losses on Selection Sunday. Plus, in each of the last three years, an SEC team has danced with 15 losses. In 2011 Marquette danced at 20-14. Each of the other ten teams to get in with 14 or 15 losses all won 19 games. (Fun fact: only one went to Dayton!)

Year	Team	Record	Seed
2019	Florida	19-15	10
2019	Ohio State	19-14	11
2018	Texas	19-14	10
2018	Alabama	19-15	9
2017	Vanderbilt	19-15	9
2017	Michigan State	19-14	9
2011	Marquette	20-14	11
2011	Michigan State	19-14	10
2011	Southern Cal	19-14	Dayton
2011	Tennessee	19-14	9
2011	Penn State	19-14	10

If you’re looking for the kind of soft bubble year that could materialize this season, 2011 is a good example. A common thread here: these are all power conference teams, and with the exception of Penn State and Southern Cal in 2011, they all carry good-to-great name brands.

(Also, Oklahoma State got in at 18-13 in 2015, but that record isn’t available to Tennessee; the closest the Vols could come would be an 18-13 regular season finish plus whatever happened in the SEC Tournament.)

So any conversation about Tennessee getting in has to land, historically speaking, with the Vols finishing at 19-15 or better.

In KenPom, 10 of those 11 teams had a Top 25 strength of schedule; the 11th was 2011 USC, who went to Dayton with a schedule rating of 36. Tennessee’s strength of schedule is currently 65th, but as we’ll see, that’s getting ready to rise. How high? Well…

It goes without saying you want the non-conference teams the Vols played to all do well (yes, even Memphis). Therein lie some potential problems: Washington was 10-2 but now sits at 12-10 (2-7); four of their last five losses came in overtime, overtime, by one, and by three. VCU gets another shot at Dayton in Richmond on February 18.

At the moment, those are both Quad 1 wins for Tennessee. They both came with Lamonte Turner, but that’s really only an argument you make if the Vols come up short on Quad 1 wins in general, and if they do that, they’re not going to be anywhere near the bubble anyway.

Here Comes Quad 1

Quad 1 in the NET ratings is a home win over a Top 30 team, a neutral win over a Top 50 team, and a road win over a Top 75 team. VCU is currently 33rd in NET; Kansas and Florida State are safe barring total collapse. Washington is currently 48th; it would help if they stayed in the Top 50.

But if you want opportunity, behold:

Opponent	Current NET	Quad
at Mississippi St	43	1
at Alabama	40	1
Kentucky	23	1
Arkansas	38	2
at South Carolina	75	1
Vanderbilt	165	4
at Auburn	27	1
at Arkansas	38	1
Florida	42	2
at Kentucky	23	1
Auburn	27	1

Again: if the Vols even approach the bubble, they’ll have done so with quality wins.

Paths to the Bubble

If 19-15 is a proven minimum, the Vols can get at least there a number of ways. Let’s do something A&M proved clearly unsafe, and assume the Vols beat Vanderbilt in Knoxville on February 18. That would be a second Quad 3/4 loss (Texas A&M is currently 126th in NET and needs to stay above 160 the rest of the way to prevent the Vols from having a Quad 4 loss). Vanderbilt can be feisty, but is still 0-7 in league play. A loss to the Commodores in Knoxville would be catastrophic.

So, let’s give ourselves that one. That’s 13 wins with 10 other games on the table. The pain of losing to A&M is felt most here: win that one, and you’ve got a really nice argument to just go 5-5 in these last ten games, and you’re 19-12 (11-7) and sitting pretty headed to the SEC Tournament.

Now, if you give the Vols Vanderbilt, you’ve got the following scenarios to get to at least 19-15:

• 17-14 (9-9): Vols go 4-6 in those 10 games, need at least two wins in the SEC Tournament (this is Tennessee’s current projection in KenPom)
• 18-13 (10-8): Vols go 5-5 in those 10 games, need at least one win in the SEC Tournament
• 19-12 (11-7): Vols go 6-4 in those 10 games

If Tennessee finishes at least .500 in SEC play, we can at least talk ourselves into something at the SEC Tournament. If you want to feel safe, the Vols need to beat Vanderbilt and win more than they lose against everyone else.

KenPom currently gives the Vols 3.99 wins in those other 10 games. So clearly, we’re talking about Tennessee exceeding expectations. One point here too: when the resume looks like this, there’s very little room between the bubble and missing the NIT. If the Vols are 17-14 we’ll go to Nashville hoping for a couple of wins, but a first round loss might also leave them out of any postseason play at 17-15. This happened to Rick Barnes’ second team, who was 14-10 (6-5) on February 8 but lost five of their last seven, then fell to Georgia in the first round of the SEC Tournament, and stayed home at 16-16.

If there’s any good news here, it’s again the belief that this team has a better chance to get better than most because it’s still getting all of its pieces lined up. The Vols need to beat Vanderbilt. And they need to win as many games as possible the rest of the way. It’s simple, but not easy.

That starts tomorrow in Starkville against a Mississippi State team that’s won four of its last five and is also eyeing the tournament. 2:00 PM ET, ESPNU. Get better, get wins, get dancing.

Go Vols.

It’s happened a couple of times to the Vols in football: best-of-the-best talent on the other team gets held in relative check until the very end, but the end is all they need. Jadeveon Clowney did it against us. Rocket Ismail did too, if you go back that far.

Today the Vols executed the gameplan they wanted against short-handed Kansas: get Udoka Azubuike in foul trouble and take advantage when he’s off the floor. In the first half his second foul immediately led to an 18-8 Vol spurt. His return led to an 18-4 Kansas run. The Vols kept fighting, cutting the lead to three with two minutes to play. From there:

• Azubuike gets a fairly generous call on John Fulkerson while setting a screen, hits one of two free throws, Kansas by four
• Azubuike reads and intercepts an alley-oop attempt from Jordan Bowden to John Fulkerson
• Devon Dotson is fouled by Santiago Vescovi, makes one of two free throws, Kansas by five with 55 seconds to go
• Azubuike blocks John Fulkerson’s shot out of bounds
• Azubuike blocks Yves Pons’ shot and recovers it
• Kansas hits free throws, wins by six

After playing 31-35 minutes the last four games, the Vols kept Azubuike to 27 today with foul trouble. In those 27 minutes he still had 18 points on 6-of-7 shooting and a better-than-average 6-of-11 at the free throw line. He added 11 rebounds and four blocks, none bigger than the plays he created at the end of the game.

Tennessee let its best players take almost all the shots: Jalen Johnson got a good look at a three late that didn’t go down, which was the only shot by a bench player on the day. John Fulkerson was a focal point again, 15 points on 7-of-12 shooting plus 12 rebounds. Jordan Bowden sat out with foul trouble in the first half, then came alive with 19 points, all in the second half, including three threes and lots of confidence going to the rim.

Maybe the moment got a little big for Josiah James, who went 0-for-6 with six turnovers. But the moment was never better for Yves Pons: a career-high 24 points on just 14 shots plus 6-of-7 at the line, to go with seven rebounds and three blocks. Pons was sensational today especially given what Tennessee was asking him to do on the defensive end, spending time dealing with both Azubuike and Dotson.

Unlike maddening losses to North Carolina in 2017 (3-of-13 from the arc) and 2018 (self-inflicted turnovers at the bitter end), this result as an underdog against an elite program makes more sense. The Vols were good today, almost good enough. Azubuike was better.

But today’s good can be plenty good enough to get the Vols where they want to go this season.

Jordan Bowden: Coach told us in the locker room that we can play with anybody in the country. No. 3 team in the country, we were right there.

— @GrantRamey (@GrantRamey) January 25, 2020

This is true, and this Kansas team was a particularly nasty match-up for this Tennessee team. The Vols defend well enough to give themselves a chance, are getting smart, difference-making basketball from John Fulkerson on a regular basis, and got the best we’ve ever seen from Yves Pons today in non-fluke fashion.

The only way this loss really hurts is if Tennessee doesn’t take care of enough of its own business the next seven weeks. KenPom projects the Vols to finish 18-13 (10-8), which is playing .500 ball in SEC play the rest of the way. That would get the Vols in the conversation. The team we saw today can do more than that.

The schedule breaks into two parts, with a pair of well-timed intermissions. The Vols will come back from Kansas to face Texas A&M in Knoxville on Tuesday; the Aggies are 166th in KenPom. Then it’s the warm-up:

• at Mississippi State, at Alabama, vs Kentucky, vs Arkansas, at South Carolina

There’s a chance to get Quad I wins in three or four of those games, with the toughest tests at home. Then the Vols get Vanderbilt in Knoxville on February 18. Then it’s the finale:

• at Auburn, at Arkansas, vs Florida, at Kentucky, vs Auburn

That finish might go five-for-five in Quad I.

The goal, as always: get better. Be playing your best basketball in March, and give yourself the best possible opportunity in the bracket along the way. The loss today won’t help the resume on paper, but it was definitely among Tennessee’s best basketball so far. Can this team, still learning how all its pieces fit together, keep getting better as the schedule does? We saw today it can have a chance against anyone. It just needs to get on the dance floor to prove it. Every win counts.

Are the suspensions of Silvio De Sousa and David McCormack good news or bad news for Tennessee’s NCAA Tournament hopes?

If this was college football, maybe you lean into the bad news argument: one game against a top five opponent (and number one in KenPom) playing without a starter and a key reserve, if you beat them they weren’t at full strength, if they beat you it’s a worse loss, etc. But in the 30+ game landscape of college basketball, I don’t think a Tennessee upset at Kansas gets poo-pooed on Selection Sunday unless the Jayhawks fall off the earth without De Sousa, which seems unlikely given that he plays a little more than eight minutes per game. Winning at Kansas would still be a huge deal for this team, and now you’ve got them a little short-handed.

Only a little, though, so a loss here doesn’t end or dramatically change Tennessee’s own bubble hopes. The Vols were in the next four out in the January 23 Bracket Matrix, appearing in 16 of 96 brackets (16.7%). Bart Torvik’s predictive bracketology has the Vols as the first team out.

This Tennessee team continues to find itself in the space between its own history. Here’s a chart we’ve used before, showing Tennessee’s teams in the KenPom era:

Year	KenPom	Record	Finish
2019	26.24	31-6	Sweet 16
2014	23.69	24-13	Sweet 16
2018	22.27	26-9	Round 2
2008	22.17	31-5	Sweet 16
2006	19.44	22-8	Round 2
2010	18.50	28-9	Elite 8
2007	18.29	24-11	Sweet 16
2009	16.48	21-13	Round 1
2020	13.50	12-6
2002	12.67	15-16
2017	12.62	16-16
2011	12.41	19-15	Round 1
2012	11.38	19-15	NIT
2003	10.99	17-12	NIT
2013	10.47	20-13	NIT
2005	8.89	14-17
2016	7.31	15-19
2004	7.30	15-14	NIT
2015	7.24	16-16

The Vols continue to play a tick below every Tennessee team to make the NCAA Tournament post-Jerry Green except one (Bruce Pearl’s final season), and a tick above the rest of the field. Some of those Tennessee teams in that next group down made the NIT, some finished at or near .500.

If you compare the Vols to a couple of teams we hoped could make the tournament in late January, you’ll find some cautionary tales. Donnie Tyndall’s squad was 12-5 (4-1) five years ago today, though just 77th in KenPom. And the advanced metrics proved to be true: Tennessee went 3-10 the rest of the regular season, failed to make the NIT, and finished with the lowest KenPom rating of any Vol squad (2002-present).

Rick Barnes’ second squad lost to Chattanooga in the opener, dropped a pair of close games in Maui, and almost won at Chapel Hill. They were 9-9 (2-4) through their first 18 games before winning four in a row, including Kentucky and Kansas State in Knoxville, to get to 13-9 (5-4) at the end of January. But they went 3-6 the rest of the way home, and also failed to make the NIT despite finishing that season 57th in KenPom.

So we’ve seen Tennessee get to this point through the first third of SEC play twice in the last six years, only to watch them peak too soon and ultimately miss both the NCAA and the NIT. This season there’s a separate conversation to be had with Tennessee’s schedule, which takes a step up in February and then a giant leap in the last five games (at Auburn, at Arkansas, vs Florida, at Kentucky, vs Auburn). Right now, the Vols just need wins; the opportunity for quality will be there at the end if the total is high enough to be in the conversation.

But if you’re looking for a resume win, this would be the best one of the season, with or without De Sousa and McCormack.

It’s clearly a chaos year in college basketball, which leads to a soft bubble. The current last four in via the Bracket Matrix:

• Virginia Tech 14-5 (5-3), 57 KenPom
• NC State 14-5 (5-3), 43 KenPom
• Minnesota 11-8 (5-4), 34 KenPom
• DePaul 13-6 (1-5), 62 KenPom

And here’s who went to Dayton last year:

• Belmont 27-6 (16-2), 49 KenPom
• Temple 23-10 (13-5), 69 KenPom
• St. John’s 21-13 (8-10), 88 KenPom
• Arizona State 23-11 (12-6), 57 KenPom

Last season only two teams with more than 13 losses made the field as an at-large: Florida (19-15) as a 10 seed, Ohio State (19-14) as an 11. That might get a run for its money this season. If Tennessee ends the regular season at 18-13 (10-8) – its current KenPom projection – the Vols should be in the conversation.

A win over Kansas would do incredible things for that conversation. But even without that, a good performance from the SEC in this weekend’s challenge would be big. Unlike years past, we’ll get most of the league’s best in the running tomorrow: Vanderbilt, South Carolina, Ole Miss, and Georgia sit it out this year. Big 12 teams are still favored in six of ten matchups in KenPom:

• Missouri at #14 West Virginia – 12:00 PM – ESPN
• Iowa State at #16 Auburn – 12:00 PM – ESPNU
• LSU at Texas – 2:00 PM – ESPN
• Mississippi State at Oklahoma – 2:00 PM – ESPN2
• Tennessee at #3 Kansas – 4:00 PM – ESPN
• TCU at Arkansas – 4:00 PM – ESPN2
• Oklahoma State at Texas A&M – 4:00 PM – ESPNU
• #15 Kentucky at #18 Texas Tech – 6:00 PM – ESPN
• Kansas State at Alabama – 6:00 PM – ESPN2
• #1 Baylor at Florida – 8:00 PM – ESPN

The SEC is currently tied for fourth among major conferences in KenPom’s league efficiency ratings, a clear step behind the Big Ten, Big East, and Big 12 – which is why a tie or win tomorrow would be huge for the league – but a crowded SEC can hold its own against the ACC and Pac-12, creating opportunity on the bubble.

At the top of all these projections, of course, is Kansas. The Jayhawks are number one in KenPom, but chaos controls atop the ladder as well: until their 21-point win over Kansas State, Kansas led the nation in KenPom but their efficiency rating was below 30. Only twice in the KenPom era has the number one team finished with a rating below 30: the 2006 Florida Gators, and in 2003, when 32-4 Kentucky finished atop the leaderboard but was upset by Dwyane Wade in the Elite Eight. Both of those seasons saw three seeds win the NCAA Tournament, and elite superstars can shine in the absence of an elite team (Horford and Noah in 2006, Wade plus Carmelo Anthony from the eventual champs in 2003). To put this in perspective: the 2019 Vols, 10th in KenPom with a 26.24 efficiency rating, would be 3rd in 2020 KenPom right now.

There are still good reasons Kansas is number one, and they start with Devon Dotson: the 6’2″ sophomore guard leads the race for KenPom Player of the Year, and is in the Top 300 nationally in ten different statistical categories. Offensively, he’s been sensational at getting to the line: 6.4 attempts per game shooting 82.5% from the stripe. This happened to Tennessee last year, when Dotson had 17 points on eight shots plus 6-of-7 at the stripe in their overtime win. Defensively, Dotson has created at least one steal in every game this season, including five in their overtime win against Dayton. This is very bad news for a Tennessee team currently giving up a steal on 11% of its possessions; how the primary ball-handlers deal with Dotson and the environment is step one of any blueprint for an uspet.

The loss of a 6’9″ and 6’10” player due to suspension would be a big deal for just about any other team…but Udoka Azubuike negates a bunch of that. Everything we’ve been saying about the importance of John Fulkerson getting quality touches in the paint – 13th nationally in effective field goal percentage, 34th nationally in two-point field goal percentage – Azubuike is the poster child for. He leads the nation in effective field goal percentage because the seven-footer is 94-of-122 (77%) from inside the arc. For a Tennessee defense built on shot-blocking (12th nationally) and playing great defense inside the arc (4th nationally), Azubuike is the biggest test Tennessee will see all season.

It’s a tough ask: Dotson excels at taking the ball away from an already-sloppy Tennessee backcourt, Azubuike excels at scoring inside in ways that might negate Tennessee’s greatest defensive strength. Kansas is projected to win by 14 in KenPom; playing close may not help the tournament resume directly, but would move the Vols up the ladder wherever advanced metrics come into play.

So how do you beat this team? What worked for Baylor (don’t foul Dotson, don’t turn it over) and, to a degree, Villanova, doesn’t seem as feasible for Tennessee. But what the Vols can do, for starters: don’t be afraid to get physical and put them on the line. Kansas shoots 66.7% as a team; take away Dotson (and McCormack, a 75% shooter), and you’ve got Azubuike at 40.3% (29-of-72) and Marcus Garrett at 67.4%.

And on the other end, going at these guys and getting Azubuike off the floor would expose the absence of De Sousa and McCormack. A couple quick fouls on the seven footer could change the complexion of this game, and Tennessee’s best basketball in the post-Lamonte/Santiago Vescovi world has involved getting to the line: Tennessee shot five free throws against LSU and a dozen at Georgia, but in the four wins:

• Missouri: 12-of-16 (75%)
• South Carolina: 22-of-28 (78%)
• Vanderbilt: 13-of-14 (92%)
• Ole Miss: 20-of-24 (83%)

Get in there and bang, on both ends of the floor.

What’s interesting about Saturday is it’ll be the first time in a few years that #Vols basketball can go into any game with absolutely nothign to lose.

Might as well play fast and hard and see what happens, right? Nothing to lose.

— Wes Rucker (@wesrucker247) January 23, 2020

The bubble is still going to be there on Sunday. In a season full of chaos, one we’ve felt con gusto in Knoxville, Tennessee can create a little more of its own on Saturday. Land some blows, climb the ladder, and we’ll see if the Vols can cash it in.

College Gameday at 11:00 AM, then the Vols and Kansas at 4:00 PM (with the A-team of Shulman, Bilas, and Rowe). Big day ahead.

Go Vols.

First, the history: Vanderbilt, as I’m sure you know by now, made a three in each of its 1,080 games since the line came to college basketball in 1986. Tonight, they went 0-for-25.

That’s fun, and the kind of semi-petty rivalry stuff you love. It’s strange to say, but the Vols have now won five of six at Memorial Gym, and four straight since Kevin Stallings left.

The history will get the headlines, but Tennessee’s defense overall was outstanding: the Commodores, to their credit, went 21-of-26 at the free throw line, which is the only reason they didn’t score something in the 30’s. Along with 0-for-25 from three, Vandy went 12-of-26 from two. A dozen made shots is the fewest the Vols have allowed since Donnie Tyndall’s season, when Mississippi State hit 11.

In the first half, it looked like we would have to embrace our worst fears for the rest of this season. The Vols led 21-20 at the break and neither team made a three. But the start of the second half was indeed Tennessee’s best basketball without Lamonte Turner. After a Fulkerson turnover to open the second 20 minutes, we got the following sequence:

• Fulkerson steal
• Bowden layup
• Bowden steal
• Bowden layup
• Vanderbilt turnover
• Vescovi jumper
• Vanderbilt miss
• Pons wheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

https://twitter.com/SECNetwork/status/1218691525238050817

After scoring 21 points in the first 20 minutes, the Vols hit an 8-0 spurt in less than 90 seconds. Defense led to offense, offense went to the rim, rinse repeat: the Vols hit 10 of their first 11 shots in the second half and finished at 53.1% from the floor. Most importantly, perhaps: the Vols went just 1-of-8 from three.

Tennessee’s previous season low on attempted threes: their best win, 13 against Washington. The Vols had an eight-three game against Tennessee Tech last season; before that, you have to go back to the Cuonzo Maritn era to find a single digit three game.

Vanderbilt is struggling, especially without Aaron Nesmith, and you can’t build a resume on what you do against the Commodores right now. But you can build confidence, and that’s exactly what it looked like Jordan Bowden did tonight. It’s the kind of game we thought we’d need from him coming into the season: leads the team in shots at 7-of-11, plus gets to the line eight times and hits seven. The high-percentage stuff inside was there too: John Fulkerson took 10 shots after getting just two at Georgia, making five to finish with 12 points and 8 rebounds. Pons went 5-of-7. Josiah James was just 2-of-8 but facilitated on the break like a champ, picking up a number of hockey assists after grabbing nine defensive rebounds. And while the Vols are still working in Plavsic, they also got nice bench minutes from Olivier Nkamhoua with four points and four boards.

In KenPom the Vols go to #25 in defensive efficiency. I doubt teams are going to go 0-for-three the rest of the way, but Tennessee can still cause all kinds of trouble on one end of the floor to create better opportunities for itself where it struggles on the other end. Tennessee welcomes Ole Miss on Tuesday night, currently leading the only undefeated team left in conference play from LSU. Then the Vols go to Kansas, number one in KenPom and hosting College Gameday on Saturday. There’s a lot of basketball in front of the 11-6 (3-2) Vols. The competition will get stiffer and the luck will be kinder to future opponents. But the makings of Tennessee’s best basketball were on display tonight; hopefully they and the confidence they inspired will come on back to Knoxville.

Go Vols.

The Vols fell to 10-6 (2-2) on Wednesday. Sure, Georgia shot well above their averages from three (10-of-23) and at the line (16-of-21), doing us no favors. But Tennessee’s offensive woes continued, even as the quality of defensive competition decreased. The Vols took 26 threes and made only six of them, while getting to the line only a dozen times. Jordan Bowden was better from inside the arc, but went 0-for-5 from three (as did Yves Pons). It was a forgettable performance in a 17-point loss that was worse than that for much of the night.

It’s not exclusively good news, but the league is a certified mess right now. Kentucky lost 81-78 at the same South Carolina team that struggled to score 55 in Knoxville. And top five Auburn, 15-0, went to Alabama and lost by 19 in just their third game against a Top 50 KenPom opponent this season.

Those same ratings project LSU – 4-0 and with a schedule that includes Kentucky and Auburn just once each – to win the league at 13-5, with five other teams finishing between 12-6 and 10-8. KenPom projects more of the same for the Vols: a 9-9 SEC finish (plus a loss at Kansas) which would leave Tennessee at 17-14 on the year.

It’s still too early with too many moving pieces to throw in the towel on this season, but it’s also too early to assume the NIT would be a safe landing spot. As has been the case since Lamonte Turner went out, Tennessee simply needs wins. The younger players getting better is probably the biggest storyline for the program, but if the Vols can piece together more wins like Missouri and South Carolina, they can at least stay in the postseason conversation.

To do that, it’s abundantly clear they have to rely on their defense, still 37th nationally in KenPom and eighth nationally in defending inside the arc, thanks in part to being 17th nationally in shot blocking. That has to become the constant, with Vescovi and Plavsic getting better and not worse as things go along. On the offensive side, there are enough individual points of hope to make Barnes’ frustrations justified, like this:

#Vols coach Rick Barnes: We need so much more from our guards, and we need a post guy to step up and want to score the ball. Fulky just won’t accept that role. Tonight was Uros’ first game, but he actually did some of that stuff, which was good to see.

— Wes Rucker (@wesrucker247) January 16, 2020

Fulkerson is 69-of-104 (66.3%) on the year, making him 45th nationally in two-point field goal percentage and 15th in effective field goal percentage. If you thought Kyle Alexander was a high percentage bucket in there, he shot 61.7% from two last year. What Fulkerson is doing is closer to Alexander’s 2018 season, when he went 76-of-112 (67.9%). The difference, of course, is the last two Vol teams had a number of other offensive options. On the current Tennessee roster, going inside to Fulkerson is one of the best plays the Vols can make. Some defenses do a great job denying the ball in there, some can create a mismatch with size in the post. But even as Tennessee is trying to work in Plavsic in the post, we can’t have a game where Fulkerson takes only two shots (Georgia) or three (Wisconsin). Do watch the seven footer as he gets a feel here: Plavsic took six shots in 17 minutes compared to Fulkerson’s two in 22.

Tennessee is fourth nationally in assist rate, sharing the ball on 65.4% of their made baskets. Sometimes that comes via style of play: VMI is second in the nation in this department with nearly half their shots coming from the arc. But while a number of elite offenses get there this way – Michigan State, Iowa, Dayton, Tennessee last year – it’s clearly not a sign of an elite offense by itself. Maine is seventh nationally in assist rate, but 335th in KenPom offense and 5-13 overall.

What it tells us about Tennessee: the Vols can’t get buckets without ball movement. There’s no one on this team who successfully creates their own shot. That should change next year, though it isn’t always tied to a Rick Barnes offense: the Vols were 188th in this stat his first year in the Kevin Punter show. In the early portion of this season, Lamonte Turner put up numbers that would still rank fourth nationally in assist rate. Vescovi is making progress in his assist-to-turnover ratio, but it’s a big ask for him to even approach what Lamonte was doing for this team early in the season. Still, the Vols can be good here – assisting on 18 of 24 made shots against LSU, 10 of 14 against South Carolina – with an emphasis on simply getting good shots. I’m fine with open threes that don’t go down. Clearly there are few bad shots for Fulkerson in the post. Too often Tennessee gets bogged down in the half-court and is forced to make a bad decision at the end of the shot clock. Get good shots, and trust your defense to take care of the difference.

What’s a good shot when the Vols don’t get quality touches in the post and have to settle for more threes? We need more data on Vescovi, who is now 11-of-22 on the year. Early returns from Yves Pons have cooled: he’s now at 30.2%. Jordan Bowden continues to struggle at 27.8%. By far the brightest spot right now: Josiah James at 20-of-51 (39.2%). He’s been shooting it more in Lamonte’s absence, 12-of-21 (57.1%) in the last five games. It’s clearly not enough to win by itself, but the Vols would be well suited to look and create for the freshman more.

You can’t assume anything in the SEC this year, but the closest thing might be Vanderbilt. The Commodores are 8-8 in Jerry Stackhouse’s first season, and just lost Aaron Nesmith with a stress fracture. It’s a bad blow for their program, who just lost a year of Darius Garland last season. Nesmith’s absence puts even more on Saben Lee, with a host of freshmen behind him.

The Commodores put a scare in Auburn on the road, but without Nesmith lost to Texas A&M in Nashville by 19 and at Arkansas by 20. Other than UNC Asheville and Alabama State, Vanderbilt is the worst defense Tennessee will see all season, by far. The Commodores are 249th in KenPom’s defensive efficiency. They foul a lot, which could help Tennessee get more of their offense heading in that direction. And they’re the worst team in the league overall at 161st in KenPom.

As we know, you assume nothing in Memorial Gym, where the freshly-minted #1 Vols almost went down last season. But it’s the best possible SEC opponent given what’s currently ailing Tennessee.

6:00 PM ET Saturday on the SEC Network.

Go Vols.

Literal big news:

.@urosp34 has been ruled eligible to compete, effective immediatelyhttps://t.co/1RO7L4kK3b

— Tennessee Basketball (@Vol_Hoops) January 14, 2020

A strange season takes another turn: the Vols started the year with 11 games of Lamonte Turner, and will end it, if healthy, with at least 17 games of Uros Plavsic. Turner’s absence and Tennessee’s 1-4 stretch surrounding it made it difficult for the Washington and VCU wins with Turner to be worth as much on the bubble. But now, if the Vols can get hot while working in Plavsic the same way they’ve done Santiago Vescovi, Tennessee can build a separate argument for what they’ve done with these two additions.

That starts at Georgia tonight, where the Vols will face potential number one overall pick Anthony Edwards. Tennessee saw Shaquille O’Neal at LSU in the early 90’s – shout out to Carlus Groves – then didn’t play a number one pick for the next 15 years. That’s changed drastically since then, thanks in large part to John Calipari:

2016	Ben Simmons	LSU
2015	Karl-Anthony Towns	Kentucky
2012	Anthony Davis	Kentucky
2010	John Wall	Kentucky
2008	Derrick Rose	Memphis
2007	Greg Oden	Ohio State

The Vols beat Ben Simmons in the regular season but lost the rematch in the SEC Tournament. Tennessee also beat John Wall in Knoxville in 2010 and, of course, got the best of Derrick Rose and Memphis in 2008.

The 6’5″ Edwards made a name for himself by scoring 37 points against Michigan State, including 7-of-16 from the arc. He’s taken no more than nine threes in any other game, including the last two when cold spells helped the Dawgs get off to an 0-2 start in league play, thanks in large part to the schedule. Kentucky won in Athens 78-69, and Auburn held serve at home with a dominant 82-60 win. Edwards had 23 points on 17 shots against Kentucky, 18 on 17 against Auburn. He’ll put it up: via KenPom, Edwards is 18th nationally in shot percentage, taking more than a third of Georgia’s shots when he’s on the floor.

Edwards is only a 30.5% three-point shooter; when Kentucky and Auburn chased him off the line, he did go 9-of-14 inside the arc. He gets to the free throw line with 72 attempts on the year (4.8 per game), but only shoots 68.1% once there. Did someone mention a seven foot rim protector with five more fouls to give?

Edwards also shares the ball well, relatively speaking, but when it goes in for Georgia from another player it’s usually Rayshaun Hammonds. The 6’9″ junior plays the five, which means right away we get to talk about Uros giving Tennessee an advantage we haven’t seen all season. After the Vols found great success against Missouri playing Yves Pons at the five, I’ll be curious to see if they carve out some time for that lineup as well.

I don’t think last season’s 96-50 win in Knoxville is much of a talking point here. Georgia finished the season 11-21 (2-16), but is already way better in Tom Crean’s second season, and not solely on the strength of Edwards. They’re tested, having played Dayton and Michigan State well before opening league play with Kentucky and Auburn. And they went to Memphis and won 65-62 on January 4, and not because Edwards had a huge game (4-of-17 shooting). They held Memphis to 38.5% from the floor and took advantage of the Tigers shooting 11-of-20 at the stripe.

Memphis did pinpoint one of their biggest weaknesses: giving up offensive rebounds, where the Dawgs are 276th nationally and undersized like us on Monday. Memphis had 15 offensive rebounds against them; Auburn had 13 and Kentucky a dozen. Georgia also does themselves no favors at the free throw line or in turning the ball over.

Any team with the number one pick is dangerous; the Vols got a spark from Vescovi, and Plavsic has been practicing with the team all season, but we’re not sure exactly what we’re going to get here and that could lead to the kind of weirdness that costs us tonight. If Tennessee is truly going to build a resume on what they do from here, with Vescovi and Plavsic, it’s a nice on-ramp: at Georgia, at Vanderbilt, vs Ole Miss before we go to Kansas. If you want that argument, it needs to start with a win tonight.

Advertising enthusiasts, rejoice: 7:00 PM ET, ESPNU.

Go Vols.

What Tennessee did against South Carolina was a perfect example of where this team is and what it will take going forward. The Vols shot 25.9% from the floor, which would’ve been the worst number in any of the last ten years if not for going 25% from the floor against Memphis. Yet Tennessee had a chance to win that game, and actually got it done this time: they held South Carolina to 32.8% from the floor, 2-of-13 (15.4%) from the arc, and the Vols knocked down 22-of-28 free throws.

Tennessee is 29th nationally in defensive efficiency (via KenPom), and has faced a schedule ranking 34th by opposing defenses. You know what you’re getting into against Kansas, Kentucky, Auburn, and Arkansas going forward, but the rest of Tennessee’s schedule should lighten a bit in this department. For the most part, the Vols can still defend well enough to give themselves a chance.

But this offense is now 114th nationally in efficiency. That’s the lowest number at Tennessee since Kevin O’Neill’s last season in 1997, when the Vols went 11-16 (4-12) and finished 278th in offensive efficiency. The only other year the Vols finished outside the Top 100 was Cuonzo Martin’s first campaign in 2012, when UT finished 106th.

Right now every shot that goes in is a big deal. Tennessee’s 14 made field goals against South Carolina tied Florida State for a season low; the Vols made just 15 shots against Memphis and 16 against Wisconsin. Tennessee continues to get high-percentage scoring from John Fulkerson (21st nationally in effective field goal percentage), but continues to have a tough time getting him quality touches inside.

Meanwhile, the late revelation at Missouri came with Fulkerson off the floor. With six minutes to play and the Vols down three, a lineup with Yves Pons at the five surrounded by Vescovi, Bowden, James, and Jalen Johnson ripped off a 14-3 run over three-and-a-half minutes. Tennessee’s small ball lineup spaced the floor and created a number of great looks for three point shooters.

From the arc, Santiago Vescovi is red hot out the gate at 10-of-18 (55.6%). Josiah James is also doing a nice job at 37.8% on the year. With Jordan Bowden now dipping under 30%, I’m curious to see how the Vols adapt their shot selection. Again, some of this should get better just by virtue of who’s next on the schedue: at Georgia (83rd in defensive efficiency), at Vanderbilt (242nd), and vs Ole Miss (119th) before going to Kansas next Saturday.

Overall, this team currently sits about where you’d expect when compared to their predecessors:

Year	KenPom	Record	Finish
2019	26.24	31-6	Sweet 16
2014	23.69	24-13	Sweet 16
2018	22.27	26-9	Round 2
2008	22.17	31-5	Sweet 16
2006	19.44	22-8	Round 2
2010	18.50	28-9	Elite 8
2007	18.29	24-11	Sweet 16
2009	16.48	21-13	Round 1
2020	13.31	10-5
2002	12.67	15-16
2017	12.62	16-16
2011	12.41	19-15	Round 1
2012	11.38	19-15	NIT
2003	10.99	17-12	NIT
2013	10.47	20-13	NIT
2005	8.89	14-17
2016	7.31	15-19
2004	7.30	15-14	NIT
2015	7.24	16-16

In KenPom, this team is behind all of Tennessee’s NCAA Tournament teams post-Jerry Green except for Bruce Pearl’s final season. Their closest comparison is Buzz Peterson’s first team, which lost seven one-possession or overtime games between December 15 and January 16, then lost Ron Slay to a torn ACL at the end of that stretch. Slay’s absence is probably the best historical comparison to this team losing Lamonte Turner. And that group’s 15-16 (7-9) finish shows the importance of winning close games, which can be the difference between the bubble and not even making the NIT in a season like this.

It’s why any win is a good one now, including a one-point slugfest against South Carolina. KenPom projects the Vols to finish 18-13 (10-8), which would at least send them to the SEC Tournament in the bubble conversation. The league has two ranked teams in Auburn and Kentucky, and then a lot of iffiness. Arkansas lost some of their momentum in a two-point loss at LSU, while the Tigers regained their close game magic in a 3-0 SEC start.

The Vols will keep figuring out, and it’s fun to watch the freshmen get better, not just Vescovi and James who play a lot, but guys like Drew Pember who can find themselves in crucial situations. The difference in this year ending at .500 and landing on the right side of the bubble is likely to be what the Vols do in close games. In SEC play, so far, so good.

The Vols have lost four of five, but Santiago Vescovi injected new interest into this season. In his second act, what changes more: six threes or nine turnovers?

Even without Lamonte Turner, Tennessee’s offense goes almost exclusively through good ball movement. Against Wisconsin Tennessee made just 16 shots, the fourth time this season the Vols made less than 20 field goals. But they still managed 12 assists. The ball went in much more often against LSU, but many of those threes still came off good ball movement, including penetration from Vescovi: 24 made shots with 18 assists.

Lamonte’s assist rate would still rank sixth nationally, but Tennessee still has it in its DNA: the Vols are fourth nationally in assist rate as a team, assisting on two-thirds of their made shots. But there’s a general problem here – does Tennessee have anybody who can create their own shot? – as well as a specific one the last two games. Against Wisconsin, the Vols got to the line 19 times but only made 10 free throws. Against LSU, the Vols shot just five free throws.

Vescovi will get better at finishing in the lane and not turning the ball over. He’s not going to hit six threes every night, nor am I sure Barnes wants him to take nine a game. But he’s also not going to go 0-for-4 from inside the arc with nine turnovers. We watch Vescovi with excitement for next season, a dedicated point guard hopefully expanding the potential of Tennessee’s elite incoming talent. But I’m still interested to see how if/how he can transform this year’s team: can he successfully create his own shot? Will he adjust his game in the lane fast enough to score at the rim?

Everything is very much in flux with this team, including:

https://twitter.com/Troy_Provost/status/1213544908570513408

Bowden’s minutes are 33.5 per game. Vescovi, fresh off the plane, played 32 minutes against LSU. There’s a lot more figuring out in front of this team than behind it, which will be frustrating with moments of enlightenment along the way.

The bad news: I’m not sure Cuonzo is who you want to be figuring your offense out against.

If those 16 made shots against Wisconsin felt low, they were: the Vols made just 15 shots in the infamous Virginia and Georgetown games in Cuonzo’s second season when the Vols, learning to play without Jeronne Maymon, ran into good defensive teams. You’ll find Maymon on Mizzou’s sideline these days, and the same defensive philosophy very much intact: the Tigers are fifth nationally in effective field goal percentage allowed.

Missouri is battle-tested, with losses to Xavier, Butler, Oklahoma, and a 71-59 defeat at Rupp in the SEC opener. They also beat rival Illinois on a neutral floor. Teams shoot just 25.9% against them from the arc, so yeah, it’s a great time to figure out how Vescovi can help Tennessee elsewhere. Much to Cuonzo’s chagrin, I’m sure, the Tigers are 338th nationally in non-steal turnover percentage on offense (via KenPom), meaning they love to give the ball away unnecessarily.

This may not be the match-up you want if you’re looking for Tennessee’s best chance to break this losing streak. But if you want the blessings and curses of Tennessee trying to figure themselves out against a team that will force them to do things differently…well, that’s probably what we’re going to get. Watch the lineups, watch Vescovi, and see if the Vols can get to the line and convert inside the arc.

7:00 PM ET, SEC Network. Let’s see what we learn this time.

Go Vols.