Author Archives: Will Shelton

This team plays so hard so often. It gets more from Yves Pons than we bargained for at the start of the year and more from John Fulkerson that we had to have as the year went on. It gets more from Santiago Vescovi than anyone in his situation should be asked to give.

When you throw all that together, even without Lamonte Turner, it became a team that scratched and clawed and fought its way to stay on the fringe, to give itself a chance in the last month of the season to still make the NCAA Tournament. That would’ve been truly remarkable, and the head coach agreed: this week in The Athletic Rick Barnes said of stealing a tournament bid, “It might be the biggest accomplishment we’ve ever had, to be honest with you, with what we’ve gone through.”

Today, at #13 Auburn, Fulkerson picked up two fouls in the first three minutes and sat the rest of the first half. He could, because Davonte Gaines came off the bench and played out of his mind, grabbing five rebounds in the first 20 minutes.

Then Vescovi hit the bench with foul trouble a few minutes later. And a scenario could’ve unfolded where the Vols struggled to function offensively, Auburn found its groove, and the Vols simply didn’t have it. Maybe we never should’ve expected them to have it this year once Lamonte Turner went down.

Instead, we got what should’ve been the Jordan Bowden game: 17 points and five assists in the first half, scoring or assisting on 10 of the Vols’ 13 made shots. He finished with a career high 28 points on just 12 shots.

The Vols led by eight at halftime, got Fulkerson back in the flow, and immediately opened it up to a 17-point advantage, 54-37, with 14:35 left.

Not only were Tennessee’s NCAA Tournament hopes alive, they were kicking. The Vols were in the midst of their best performance of the season, and a rejuvenated Bowden changed our beliefs about this team’s ceiling.

On the other end of the floor, Vescovi was called for his fourth foul. He exited with the Vols up 17. Here are Tennessee’s next nine offensive possessions via ESPN’s play-by-play:

• Jalen Johnson turnover
• John Fulkerson turnover
• John Fulkerson turnover
• Jordan Bowden turnover
• Yves Pons miss
• Josiah James turnover
• John Fulkerson miss
• 10 second violation
• John Fulkerson miss

Auburn took the lead 55-54 with 8:06 to play.

The Vols didn’t fold, to their credit. Bowden’s cock-back dunk put the Vols back up three with 5:15 to play. Auburn hit a 7-0 spurt in response that featured the Vols fouling a three-point shooter and a turnover from Josiah James. Free throws from Vescovi and Bowden tied it again at 64-64; when Auburn hit a three, Vescovi hit a two to make it 67-66 Auburn with 1:15 to go.

Here, you have to credit Anfernee McLemore for hitting a really tough shot over Pons. Yves played well on both ends and had several shots rattle out, and just missed a big block on this play.

Auburn led by three with 45 seconds to go, and the Vols turned it over one more time, the sixth of the day from Josiah James. The Tigers finished it off at the free throw line, trailing 54-37 with 14:35 to go and winning 73-66.

In that piece from The Athletic, Barnes mentions a note from Admiral Schofield’s talk with the team after the Vanderbilt win: the Vols were in a similar spot three years ago, Schofield’s sophomore season in 2017. Tennessee was 14-10 (6-5) and hosting Georgia. The comparison is even more apt now: in that game the Vols were up 53-39 with 15:15 to play in Knoxville. They got J.J. Fraziered and lost by one point.

Both of those Tennessee teams played hard, played well against good teams, and gave themselves a chance. It’s been especially painful then, on these last two Saturdays, to watch the Vols give that chance away against good teams on the road by turning the ball over. Four turnovers in the last two minutes at South Carolina. Twenty-four all told today, including four in a row and six in nine possessions to let Auburn back in the game, and four others down the stretch to keep the Vols out of it. John Fulkerson finished with four turnovers, Vescovi five to just three assists. And Josiah James turned it over six times, including the last one.

It hurts more this way: play hard, give yourself a chance to overachieve, and then give that chance away. It’s worth noting what happened to those 2017 Vols after that loss to Georgia: with Robert Hubbs on the mend, Tennessee lost four of its last six, then lost to Georgia at the buzzer in the SEC Tournament, finishing 16-16 and missing not only the NCAAs but the NIT as well.

We’ll see what becomes of this Tennessee team, who played above themselves well enough to create genuine disappointment when they couldn’t finish it off. It will serve them well going forward. It just hurts a lot more today.

Go Vols.

In the KenPom era (2002-present), Tennessee’s average strength of schedule is 27th nationally. The last three years it ranked 16th, 11th, and 25th. By this metric Tennessee played a Top 25 schedule four times in Bruce Pearl’s tenure, and never finished lower than 34th in those six years. And though it slipped a bit between the Pearl and Barnes eras (average strength of schedule from Cuonzo’s first season through Barnes’ first season: 45th), the expectation of a schedule that will help you on Selection Sunday is clearly here to stay under the current administration.

That certainly looked to be the case this season. Going in knowing the Vols would face Washington, Florida State, Purdue/VCU, Memphis, Cincinnati, Wisconsin, and Kansas? It more than passed the test.

What happened?

• Washington, still 65th in KenPom, is an unbelievable 12-15 after a 10-2 start. They’ve now lost nine in a row, five by six points or less.
• Florida State is 22-4 and a two seed in the Bracket Matrix, check.
• VCU is 17-9, losers of three straight, next four out in the Bracket Matrix.
• Memphis is 18-8 but just 7-6 in the American, the seventh-best conference in KenPom, and played most of the season without James Wiseman. They’re in two of 116 brackets in the matrix.
• Cincinnati is 17-9 and has now played four consecutive overtime games, including a double overtime loss to UCF on Wednesday when a half-court prayer was answered just after the buzzer. They also played three straight overtime games in November! They’re last four in.
• Wisconsin is 16-10 but 9-6 in the Big Ten, meaning they’re the closest of this group to locking up a seed other than Florida State and…
• Kansas, 23-3 and still number one in KenPom, check.

The Vols got their money’s worth from the Seminoles and Jayhawks. Everyone else on what we thought would be a dynamite non-conference slate has become the bubble or worse.

Meanwhile, the SEC currently has no teams in the KenPom Top 25. Kentucky is 28th with Florida, LSU, and Auburn all in the 30’s. It’s shaping up to be the weakest SEC since 2014, when Florida went undefeated in conference play and the league put just three teams in the NCAA Tournament, including the Vols in Dayton. The matrix puts four in right now, with Alabama, Mississippi State, and Arkansas all in the first five out.

In a sense, the Vols have been betrayed by both the schedule and the conference. Tennessee’s strength of schedule is currently 59th in KenPom. It’ll go up from here, but how far? Tennessee lost to Florida State by three and at Kansas by six. They’re competitive with the very best they’ve faced. The Vols are 64th in NET and can still get to at least 19 wins, keeping them within historical thresholds for an at-large bid at the moment. But it’s anyone’s guess on such a weak bubble.

And if that’s the case, the best argument might end up being for teams that get hot late…which is exactly what Tennessee has to have to get in anyway.

Better Late Than Never

That sense of frustration with the schedule carries over to these next two games, the start of what we’ve long known to be an end-of-season gauntlet. But Auburn just lost two straight on the road by double digits to Missouri and Georgia, both triple-digit squads in KenPom. The Tigers are still 22-4 but missing freshman Isaac Okoro, one of their most reliable scorers. Meanwhile Arkansas has lost five in a row: two in overtime, one by a single point, and a pair of blowouts at Tennessee and Florida.

So the bad news is what looked like opportunities against a Top 10 foe and a tournament team are now games against teams who’ve two and five straight. The good news: Tennessee needs wins, and perhaps now the odds are a little more in their favor.

The Vols’ only two Quad 1 wins are against VCU with Lamonte Turner and at Alabama. Both are next four out in the matrix. If you want the best win of the year and the first over a tournament lock? Here it is.

Without Okoro, Auburn fell into the bad shot selection trap at Missouri: 20-of-28 from two, but 1-of-17 from three. The Tigers also got to the line an insane 46 times (on the road!), but missed 16 free throws. Meanwhile Missouri was hot: 55% from the floor, 7-of-13 from three, and they won by a dozen.

Auburn followed their 1-of-17 performance with 4-of-26 from the arc at Georgia. They beat LSU (with Okoro) by going 18-of-44 from three (40.9%). But that was their best performance from the arc in league play, and perhaps created an unnecessary reliance. You might recall Bruce Pearl’s 2009 Vol squad, which was the worst three-point shooting team in that year’s NCAA Tournament…and then fired off 33 threes in the first round loss to Oklahoma State.

The Tigers are the worst three-point shooting team in SEC play at just 26.9% from the arc. Sure, they can get hot – Auburn is third nationally in luck via KenPom, see the LSU game most recently – but it’s clearly become an issue, especially without Okoro. The thing they’re best at is limiting second chances offensively, leading the league in offensive rebound percentage allowed. But that hasn’t been a ton of Tennessee’s game.

The most interesting match-up here: when the Tigers don’t shoot a three and go to the rim, who wins the battle between shot-blocking and drawing fouls? Tennessee is first in the SEC in blocked shots. Auburn is first in the SEC in free throw rate. Austin Wiley has the size, but Auburn’s guards have been the best at drawing fouls. Okoro was good at this, but Samir Doughty is great at it and shoots 78% once he’s at the stripe. How the Vols stop penetration, rotate, and protect the rim without fouling will go a long way to determining the outcome here.

If you’re looking for tournament scenarios, it’s not quite must-win yet. But the alternative is probably winning at Rupp, or winning multiple games in the SEC Tournament. Might as well win this one.

High noon, CBS. Go Vols.

Tennessee’s at-the-wire finishes are coming in small bursts this season: two games in Destin against Florida State and VCU, both games against South Carolina, and the win at Alabama. The Vols are 3-2 in those one possession games, which is about what you’d expect; for every, “If we’d only hit a three against Memphis (a four-point loss),” there’s an, “If Lamonte doesn’t hit that shot against VCU…”.

The particular pain of the South Carolina finish was four turnovers in the last two minutes, a game the Vols led by six with 3:40 to play. Of Tennessee’s most painful losses this season, this one felt the most self-inflicted.

The most costly is still Texas A&M. But because the Vols lost that one, losing a game you had won at South Carolina on February 15 certainly feels like the most devastating outcome this season. The Vols are hurting. Are they finished?

Not quite.

Here’s our post from the beginning of the month on the history of the last teams in since tournament expansion. 19-15 remains the historical cut line, a number the Vols can still reach a couple of different ways, and it remains true that three different SEC teams made the field the last three seasons at that mark. The difference this season: the SEC has cannibalized itself.

Last season the SEC had five teams finish in Ken Pomeroy’s Top 25, plus Florida at #26. In 2018 it was four Top 25 teams plus Texas A&M at #29. In 2017 Kentucky and Florida finished in the top five, and South Carolina’s run to the Final Four landed them at #24.

Right now, the SEC leader in KenPom is Kentucky…at 30th. Auburn, LSU, and Florida are all in the 30’s, with Arkansas, Alabama, and Mississippi State in the 40’s and the Vols at 57.

Tennessee’s strength of schedule should still finish strong. Strong enough to feel good about any path to 19 wins? Eh…

So, let’s start here: the first truly must-win game of the season is tonight. Tennessee cannot lose to 1-11 Vanderbilt in Knoxville after already losing to Texas A&M. If that happens, stop reading.

With a win tonight, the Vols would go to 15-11 (7-6) with five games to play: at Auburn, at Arkansas, vs Florida, at Kentucky, vs Auburn. It’s a stout finish with four Quad 1 opportunities. Beat Vanderbilt, and then the conversation becomes about what each of those wins could do for you.

We used Bart Torvik’s predictive bracketology and teamcast to play out multiple scenarios for Tennessee. The idea for this team post-Lamonte has always been to get better as the season went along, with a chance to show that progress at the end. To get back on the bubble, the Vols will either have to do that at the end of the regular season, or at the SEC Tournament in Nashville.

A few scenarios – all of which include beating Vanderbilt – that would get the Vols in the conversation on Selection Sunday:

The Lloyd Christmas: 17-14 with a run to the SEC Tournament Finals

• Tennessee wins its home games (Vanderbilt, Florida, Auburn) and goes 0-3 on the road. The Vols finish the regular season 17-14 (9-9).
• Tennessee wins an 8/9 game in the SEC Tournament, then beats Kentucky on Friday, then beats Florida/Mississippi State/South Carolina on Saturday, then loses a close game to Auburn or LSU in the finals. The Vols are 20-15 on Selection Sunday, picking up three Quad 1 wins in a span of eight days.
• Torvik prediction: First Four Out

The Most Reasonable Path: 18-13 plus two wins in the SEC Tournament

• Tennessee wins its home games (Vandy, Florida, Auburn) and takes advantage of a good match-up against Arkansas again, this time in Fayetteville. The Vols finish the regular season 18-13 (10-8).
• Tennessee wins a 7/10 game in the SEC Tournament, beats either Auburn or LSU on Friday, then loses to the other on Saturday. The Vols are 20-14 on Selection Sunday.
• Torvik prediction: First Four Out

The I Knew They Had It In Them: 19-12 plus no disaster in the SEC Tournament

• Tennessee wins its home games, wins in Fayetteville, and takes advantage of what has been an unusually lucky Auburn team on the road as well. The Vols finish the regular season on a 5-1 spurt, losing only at Rupp, and are 19-12 (11-7).
• If the Vols are a five seed in the SEC Tournament, they beat the 12/13 seed on Thursday.
• Torvik prediction: Dayton (with room for improvement in Nashville)

If we’re courting realism here, the Vols really need to go at least 3-2 in those last five games; if your plan involves a run to the SEC Tournament finals, hey, let’s just win the SEC Tournament. Right now KenPom gives Tennessee 1.96 wins in those last five games. It’ll take an upset and at least one road win.

So we reach a place we found ourselves at the end of what became Cuonzo Martin’s final season: unlikely, but not impossible. Because of Tennessee’s record, we’re also still in the middle ground this team has occupied post-Lamonte: the Vols continue to hang out between 11-13 in KenPom’s efficiency ratings (as in, the Vols would be favored by 11-13 points on a neutral floor against an average team in a game with 100 possessions). Six Tennessee teams have finished between 10.5 and 12.7 in KenPom. Bruce Pearl’s final team made the NCAA Tournament, three others made the NIT, and two – Buzz Peterson’s first team and Rick Barnes’ second – stayed home at .500. There ain’t much space between 18-13 and 16-15. One goes to the SEC Tournament needing a couple of wins to get in the bubble conversation. One goes to the SEC Tournament needing a couple of wins to make the NIT.

And so, 25 games into this season, all the options are still on the table for this team. All roads lead through Vanderbilt tonight. And if they do, we’ll get at least one more week of asking if they have anything more to give.

It’s unlikely. But it’s not impossible. Not yet.

Go Vols.

For NCAA Tournament purposes, Tennessee’s formula remains much the same as it was two weeks ago: the Vols need wins, and their closing schedule should be strong enough that it doesn’t matter much how they get to 18-13 or 19-12 as long as they get there. Coming into the month, we looked at historical data on teams earning the final at-large bids: since tournament expansion to 68 in 2011, no team has earned an at-large bid with less than 19 wins or more than 15 losses. Three different SEC teams got in at 19-15 in the last three years.

A 17-14 (9-9) finish could send the Vols to Nashville with a chance to get to 19-15 by way of two SEC Tournament wins. But the uniqueness of Tennessee’s case – games with and without Lamonte Turner – makes me think you really need to get to at least 18 regular season wins to give yourself a more realistic chance.

The NCAA’s NET ratings are too new for reliable historical data, but last year the four teams who went to Dayton – Arizona State, Belmont, St. John’s, and Temple – finished 63rd, 47th, 73rd, and 56th. Ohio State earned the final non-Dayton at-large bid at 55th. Last year’s 10 seeds – Florida, Iowa, Minnesota, and Seton Hall – finished 31st, 43rd, 61st, and 57th. The Vols are currently 63rd in NET, so they’re within the margin on a one-year sample size. The Gators were 19-15 last season but finished 14th nationally in strength of schedule.

Tennessee is tough to predict on that front – the Vols are 53rd currently in KenPom’s SOS rating – and that number may go down a bit after the Vols host Vanderbilt on Tuesday. But it will only go up after that – at Auburn, at Arkansas, vs Florida, at Kentucky, vs Auburn – I’m just not sure exactly how high. Bart Torvik’s predictive data projects it to finish 39th. Warren Nolan’s projects it to finish fifth. The truth is usually somewhere in the middle.

One of the biggest problems Tennessee has right now is Washington, who’s been in absolute free fall: the Huskies have lost seven in a row, five of them by six points or less, and are 2-11 after a 10-2 start. They’ve fallen out of Quadrant 1, leaving the Vols with just two such victories (VCU, at Alabama). The good news on that: it removes some of the Lamonte Turner bias from the equation.

The Vols, of course, will get at least five Quad 1 opportunities in their final seven games (home vs NET 1-30, neutral vs NET 1-50, away vs NET 1-75). That starts with an on-fire South Carolina team in Columbia tomorrow.

If you’re looking for the most straightforward path to 18-13 (10-8), it’s winning out at home (Vandy, Florida, Auburn) and beating South Carolina on the road. That scenario also gives the Vols an elite win over Auburn (in the season finale), a happier scenario than getting to 18 wins but losing to Auburn and Kentucky twice. After watching the Vols dismantle Arkansas on Tuesday, if you want to replace tomorrow with the February 26th trip to Fayetteville as the most winnable road game, fine by me. KenPom’s math still gives the Vols slightly better odds in Columbia at 41% vs 32% at Arkansas.

So nothing about Tennessee’s NCAA fate will be decided at South Carolina. The Vols need 18 or 19 wins to go to the SEC Tournament feeling like they’ve got a real chance. Lose tomorrow and you need to go 4-2 down the stretch. Win tomorrow and you’re already at 15; follow it up with a home win over Vanderbilt (more can’t-lose than must-win), and you go to a CBS game at Auburn at 16-10 (8-5), and you’re back in the conversation much faster.

Either way, the Vols just need wins. And this one will be harder to come by than we bargained for.

This chicken is spicy and last time it gave me heartburn.

Tennessee beat South Carolina 56-55 on January 11 with heavy usage from the word “despite”: the Vols made just 14 shots and went 25.9% from the floor. The latter would’ve been a decade-low if not for the 25% performance against Memphis. But the Vols held South Carolina to 32.8% from the floor, the Gamecocks hit just two threes on thirteen attempts, and most importantly, the Vols went 22-of-28 at the free throw line.

That loss dropped South Carolina to 8-7 (0-2), their third straight defeat including one at home to the Hatters of Stetson. And so right on cue, they beat Kentucky the next game out. And now they’ve won seven of nine.

The schedule hasn’t been overly challenging after Kentucky – they lost at Auburn by 13 and won at Arkansas by two – but they’re getting better along the way. They just beat Texas A&M by 20 and won at Georgia by 16 in a game they led by 24 with four minutes to play. Confidence is high.

As you’d expect, it’s defense: at Georgia they went just 11-of-19 from the line and 6-of-17 from the arc and still flat out dominated. They held the Dawgs to 3-of-24 from the arc and Anthony Edwards to 0-of-7, and turned Georgia over 19 times. Texas A&M started the game on a 9-0 spurt, then South Carolina went on a 61-21 (!!!) run. The Aggies turned it over 20 times and shot 28.6% from two and 25.9% from three.

If you’re looking for the best defense in conference play, it’s this one. The Gamecocks are first in effective FG% allowed, first in three point defense (25.7%), second in steals, third at defending inside the arc, and fourth in turnovers forced, blocked shots, and offensive rebounds allowed. It’s a robust unit that can bang with anyone with Maik Kotsar inside surrounded by four players 6’4″ and taller. Offensively in conference play, they’re more or less our equivalent – the Vols are seventh in offensive efficiency in league play, the Gamecocks eighth – but their defense makes a tremendous difference. The home losses to Stetson and Boston University cost them just about everything when it comes to the bracket, but this is not a team you want to play right now.

But since we have to, might as well go back to what worked last time, and what is far and away their greatest weakness:

Get The Whistle

South Carolina is last in the SEC in free throw rate allowed, getting called for contact on 53.4% of opponent attempts. And they are last in the SEC by a comical amount in free throw shooting at just 62.9% from the line. That game you just saw against Arkansas, where you complained about all the fouls? That’s the one you want tomorrow.

Nothing will be easy against South Carolina’s defense, but a few things have changed for the Vols offensively since January 11. John Fulkerson hadn’t quite leveled up yet, though he played well against the Gamecocks the first time at 5-of-7. He followed that up with the 2-of-2 performance at Georgia. Since then, Fulkerson averages nine attempts per game. He’s still 13th nationally in true shooting percentage (now 0-for-1 with a three attempt on the board). When he played well offensively against South Carolina it was more of a surprise. Now it’s the expectation and the focal point of Tennessee’s offense.

In turn, Jordan Bowden took 17 shots against the Gamecocks the first time and made just one of them, including 1-of-12 from three. Since then, Bowden averages 12.1 shots per game and 4.3 threes per game. He’s still there, but he’s attacking the rim more, drawing fouls more, and I’d imagine feeling less of a burden that he’s all or nothing for this team without Lamonte.

And January 11 was game three for Santiago Vescovi, featuring three assists and seven turnovers. Again, South Carolina leads the league in steals, so I wouldn’t expect perfection this time. But here’s a fun little chart:

Santiago Vescovi Assists, Turnovers, Turnovers Per Minute

Opponent	Minutes	TO	TO/Min	Assists	A/TO
LSU	34	9	0.26	4	0.44
at Missouri	19	5	0.26	2	0.40
South Carolina	22	7	0.32	3	0.43
at Georgia	25	2	0.08	3	1.50
at Vanderbilt	25	5	0.20	2	0.40
Ole Miss	22	2	0.09	4	2.00
at Kansas	32	0	0.00	3	3.00
Texas A&M	37	2	0.05	6	3.00
at Mississippi St	31	3	0.10	5	1.67
at Alabama	38	1	0.03	5	5.00
Kentucky	39	3	0.08	2	0.67
Arkansas	31	3	0.10	8	2.67

I’d imagine Vescovi will play more than 22 minutes this time.

There are also rumblings the Vols might get Josiah-Jordan James back in the lineup, which means Vescovi and Bowden might not have to play 38 minutes. I’m curious to see if we get any Eastern European showdown this time with Plavsic vs Kotsar, but if JJJ is back the Vols can keep minutes balanced all over the floor with Pons and Fulkerson at the four and five.

Fulkerson is more consistent, Bowden won’t shoot that poorly or that often, and Vescovi is far more reliable than the first time around. But the way you beat this team remains: get to the rim, make them foul you, and don’t be afraid to get physical with them on the other end.

6:00 PM Saturday, SEC Network. It’s big. They’re all big now.

Go Vols.

You never know for sure in the league this year – Ole Miss is currently up 25 on Mississippi State – but we thought this might be a really good match-up for the Vols. And that’s exactly what we got: an Arkansas team with no player over 6’8″ found no advantage on the offensive glass and an inability to defend the Vols without fouling. The fouls actually ended up being a wash – Tennessee went 24-of-30, Arkansas 26-of-36 – and the Hogs’ commitment to three-point defense was fairly well represented too, as the Vols went 6-of-16 to Arkansas’ 5-of-16.

But the Vols found a huge difference in the paint, finishing +11 on the glass and getting high-percentage stuff from Jordan Bowden (5-of-9 from two), Yves Pons (4-of-7), an under-the-weather John Fulkerson (4-of-5) and a nice burst from Olivier Nkamhoua off the bench (2-of-2).

Two other factors were a real difference. The Vols started strong, building a 10-point lead in the first 10 minutes and a 17-point advantage at halftime. Arkansas got a bucket at the 17:47 mark in the second half to keep it at 17. Their next made basket came at 9:07, which cut the Tennessee lead to 25. Mason Jones, an SEC Player of the Year candidate, came off the bench in some apparent message-sending from Eric Mussleman. It didn’t work: the Vols held him to 1-of-10 from the floor, nine points total. He scored 30+ in three of his last four games.

And then there’s Santiago Vescovi. The “wait til he cleans some of his game up” stuff might be happening in the present: 20 points and eight assists tonight, including 3-of-4 from the arc.

The result is a game Tennessee controlled from start to finish, a 21-point win over a bubble squad. It moves Tennessee to 14-10 (6-5); again, the Vols just need wins. Seven games left, and the Vols need to win at least four of them. Vanderbilt is getting friskier by the minute, so maybe nothing will be easy. But opportunity will knock almost every night against this schedule, which goes next to Columbia to face a South Carolina team the Vols beat last time only by getting to the free throw line.

But Vescovi has become the poster child for both Tennessee’s bracket hopes and their argument: when you mix and match so many pieces midseason, sometimes you struggle…but sometimes you get a higher probability of your best basketball late in the year. Combined with the win at Alabama and what’s still a strong performance against Kentucky, the Vols are playing solid basketball right now. They’ll need it to become even more so the rest of the way home. But their point guard has become a real weapon as both scorer and facilitator, the Vols have done this without Josiah James three games in a row, and dominated tonight with Fulkerson at something less than 100%.

There’s a long way to go and an uphill climb to get there. But the Volunteer heart is still beating. And its pulse is getting stronger.

Go Vols.

There’s some emotional vulnerability in the air at Thompson-Boling tonight: the depleted Vols, who played hard and smart but just couldn’t get good looks to fall against their rivals over the weekend. And the Razorbacks, who weren’t even supposed to be here in Eric Mussleman’s first season, who were 16-5 (4-4) before losing consecutive games in overtime to Auburn and Missouri.

If you’re the Vols, you want to prevent what happened to Arkansas the second time around and let an emotional loss cost you a second game. Tennessee is also nicely positioned in the Ackbar seat, with Arkansas facing Mississippi State and Florida next.

But more than anything, this match-up is, on paper, more favorable to Tennessee than any on the rest of their schedule (non-Vanderbilt division).

Arkansas starts four players under 6’6″ and 6’8″ Reggie Chaney at center, who is the tallest player on their active roster. As such, the Razorbacks are one of the worst teams in college basketball at the thing that’s killed Tennessee the most recently: offensive rebounds. And they’re bad, in part, because they want to get back and set up their defense, which is built around taking away something the Vols don’t want much to do with anyway: three point shooting.

The Razorbacks are 336th nationally in offensive rebounding. They’re the best team in the country at defending the three, allowing 24.6% from the arc. Check and check for a Tennessee team that wants to go inside and won’t find much opposition in the way of height.

Honestly, every conversation with Arkansas should probably start with Mason Jones, one step ahead of Reggie Perry on the KenPom SEC Player of the Year race. The 6’5″ sophomore scored 18 points on the Vols last year, but it didn’t matter because Arkansas gave up 106. But you have to defend him everywhere: he gets the ball more than any player in the league, he’s responsible for 30% of Arkansas’ shots, and he’s tops in the league at drawing fouls. In the overtime loss at Auburn he took 12 twos, 12 threes, and 16 free throws, scoring 40 points in playing all 45 minutes.

There is a bit of a “just stop everyone else” with this team: he also had 34 in the loss to South Carolina on January 29. We’ve seen one player really wreck Tennessee when the Vols faced Anthony Edwards. If that’s the story again, Tennessee won’t have the firepower to match on the other end.

If you want the flicker of hope for the bracket, it looks like this: beat Arkansas at home tonight (50% in KenPom), get a win at South Carolina on Saturday (41%), take care of business against Vandy next Tuesday (84%). Then you’re 16-10 (8-5), and you’ve at least given yourself a chance against that ridiculous finish. There’s a lot to like in this match-up for the Vols. They just can’t let Jones wreck it by himself.

7:00 PM, SEC Network. You like the improvement from many of this team’s pieces. Now is the time for that improvement to lead to wins.

Go Vols.

You have to love this Tennessee team. On the Vol Network postgame, Bob Kesling said John Fulkerson drew 12 of Kentucky’s 21 fouls, he of the fresh haircut and 16 points. I’m not sure Fulkerson was ever supposed to be Plan B for this team, and now he’s Plan A against Kentucky. Santiago Vescovi has been here for a heartbeat, and can be a feast or a famine every time he touches the ball. Today he scored 18 points and only turned it over thrice…

Just wait until Vescovi actually knows what he’s doing.

— Wes Rucker (@wesrucker247) February 8, 2020

It wasn’t enough today. It was enough to give the Vols a chance: down five with 2:30 to play, Jordan Bowden got as good of a look as you could ask for against these guys, and just missed. Tennessee shot 7-of-26 from the arc; they can survive South Carolina and Alabama at a percentage like that, but not Kentucky. And these particular Cats are ruthless at the free throw line and really good at getting there: 22-of-25 today, taking advantage of every opportunity and giving the Vols no second chances after that missed three.

Barnes said in the postgame that this team is getting better, and he’s right. It’s not just a static “good game” idea that the Vols had a shot against Kentucky without Lamonte Turner and Josiah James. Fulkerson is so much more than we thought he could be, Pons means you’re never quite sure you’re beat on a play, and when Vescovi feasts the whole team eats well.

They’re running out of chances to get better fast enough to make the dance floor: the Vols fall to 13-10 (5-5) with a quick, tough turnaround in hosting Arkansas on Tuesday night. But at least this ragtag group of players, in playing hard and being fun to root for, is giving us more than just an, “Oh well, wait til the freshmen get here.” Today’s performance was another reason to be excited about getting Fulkerson, Pons, and Vescovi back next season too.

Kentucky snaps a four-game losing streak in Knoxville, and moves into a three-way tie with Auburn and LSU at 8-2 in league play. The Vols need wins. I don’t know if they’ll get better in ways that lead to the bracket. But there was still some in encouragement in the way they played today, even in having to let go of a streak we thoroughly enjoyed against Kentucky.

Once upon a time, Kentucky won 11 straight in this series. Jerry Green’s Vols broke that streak in Rupp Arena, and Tennessee won four of seven from 1999-2002. Then Kentucky was at it again, winning eight in a row.

Bruce Pearl’s Vols broke that streak, also in Rupp Arena. Pearl finished his time in Knoxville at 4-9 against the Cats – which was progress considering where we’d been in this rivalry – but that came after a 3-3 split his first three years. The Vols beat #2 Kentucky in Knoxville in 2010, but that was Tennessee’s only win in a ten game stretch against the Cats.

Kentucky’s last win in Knoxville during that stretch was in 2012, when the eventual national champions escaped with a three-point win in Cuonzo Martin’s first season. The next year in Knoxville, the Vols unleashed a shocking 30-point beat down on Kentucky. A temporary bad scheduling idea from the league office meant the game wasn’t played in Knoxville in 2014. Kentucky’s almost-undefeated juggernaut won in Knoxville against Donnie Tyndall’s squad in 2015.

And then Rick Barnes arrived. The Vols are 6-4 against Kentucky since then, 4-0 in Knoxville.

The Cats have one victory in Knoxville in the last seven years.

Any win over these guys is always special. But there was a time when any win was an oasis in the desert. There was a time when Kentucky fans filled the upper deck with an expectation of an easy trip to Knoxville. For Tennessee to turn the tide in this rivalry this way, especially in Knoxville, is unheard of in my lifetime. It’s a great season to be a Tennessee Vol.

Every Kentucky squad to roll through here in Barnes’ tenure has been ranked, as you’d expect. Tennessee beat the Cats in Knoxville at #20, #4, #17, and #4. And we’re getting ready to catch them at #15.

They did it by shooting 30-of-34 at the free throw line in 2016. They did it with an all-time J.P. Prince stat line from freshman Grant Williams in 2017 (13 points, 6 rebounds, 6 assists, 4 blocks, 3 steals, 0 turnovers, and the game-winner). They did it with a 16-3 second half run in 2018, erasing an eight-point halftime deficit. And last year they did it with defense, holding Kentucky to 14 field goals and 31.8% from the floor.

There’s no one way it’s happened for Barnes. Many of the heroes of the last three wins are gone, but the Vols also beat Kentucky with 18 points and 13 rebounds from Armani Moore in 2016, and 25 points from Robert Hubbs in 2015. Barnes has found a way to get the best from everyone, not just the superstars, in this match-up in Knoxville. We will need it to keep this thing going.

There is no March without February

The bracket remains a simple computation: Tennessee needs wins, and the schedule is strong enough that just about any path to 18-19 regular season wins gets you in the conversation. Home wins are easier, and getting Kentucky up on the board certainly looks better. This is the first of two shots the Vols will get at the Cats, with two more against Auburn also on the horizon. This team will have its chances for marquee wins. Might as well start here.

To do that, Tennessee needs to take advantage of both the good news and the bad news in this match-up. First, the good news: for a Tennessee team that struggles so mightily with turnovers, Kentucky doesn’t present much of a challenge on paper. The Cats are 280th nationally in turnovers forced, 305th in steals forced. Like the Vols and plenty of Calipari teams of the past, they like to block shots and let that create the necessary havoc defensively without having to gamble and give up easy buckets.

…with one notable exception: Ashton Hagans, who will almost certainly go against Santiago Vescovi when both are in the game. Hagans is 74th nationally in steals, and Vescovi is currently giving it away on around 30% of his possessions. If Josiah James doesn’t play again, it puts a lot of pressure minutes on Vescovi (and Jordan Bowden, who is typically much better with ball security). Hagans is good enough to disrupt this whole equation by himself. If that happens, the Vols will have a very difficult time getting this done.

On the other end of the floor, Kentucky presents a similar challenge to the Mississippi State squad that decimated Tennessee’s defense in the second half. The Cats like to run three guards with two elite big men: 6’11” Nick Richards and 6’10” E.J. Montgomery. Richards in particular has been on a tear, averaging 18.5 points and 10 rebounds over Kentucky’s last six games against a really tough schedule. Auburn did a good job limiting him without fouling, but he shot 14 free throws against Texas Tech and 15 against Mississippi State.

The Vols were the aggressor against Alabama, and as was the case with the home win over South Carolina, the free throw line made all the difference. Kentucky is typically the aggressor: fifth nationally in free throw rate.

Free throw numbers the last 10 games for @Vol_Hoops 5-5

Last 5 losses
UT: 43-of-61
Opp: 95-of-127

Last 5 wins
UT: 90-of-114
Opp: 56-of-85

So, being aggressive, playing inside-out and getting to the free throw line works.

— Vince Ferrara (@VinceSports) February 5, 2020

Watch the lineups in this one, especially if James doesn’t play again. The Vols made most of their hay against Alabama with Uros Plavsic in foul trouble; this is a big-boy spot for him. Maybe we walk away from this one just shaking our heads and saying Kentucky’s bigs were a bad match-up for us. But we’ve seen Pons and Fulkerson hold their own against elite bigs from Washington; we’ve just also seen everyone get carved up by Mississippi State’s. Which way is this one going to go?

Saturday, 1:00 PM, CBS. Can Knoxville come alive again for the Vols against Big Blue Nation? Can Tennessee make win #14 their best one yet?

Go Vols.

No Josiah James for the second game in a row, Bama on fire from three, foul trouble taking Uros Plavisc out of the equation…you’d be forgiven for shutting this thing down as it neared halftime. Alabama took a 39-24 lead with 1:49 to play in the first half after Plavsic picked up his third foul on a dead ball technical, sending some frustration Alabama’s way via a shot to the ribcage.

It wasn’t the sort of moment that felt like a turning point for Tennessee, because things genuinely felt too far gone. The Vols were staring at 12-10 (4-5) with an uphill climb in front of them on the schedule, ineffective in so many ways since almost winning at Kansas.

But the Vols did the same thing in that last 1:49 that got them all the way back in the next 20 minutes. Jordan Bowden hit two free throws. John Fulkerson hit two more. The Vols forced a turnover. And Fulkerson hit a big shot.

Alabama’s lead was down to eight at halftime. The Vols cut it to four in the first minute of the second half, then Kira Lewis hit a three, and then we stayed there for a while at 43-36. Another three put the Tide back up 10 with 15 minutes to play.

The Vols scored 36 points in those first 25 minutes, then scored 33 in the last 15.

Jordan Bowden was again a huge difference maker in the second half. He scored five straight points to get the Vols back within five, then knocked in another one to bring it down to two with 10 minutes to play. Fulkerson hit two free throws to tie it, Kira Lewis splashed a three, then Fulkerson hit two more free throws. A minute later, the Vols got the lead on two Bowden free throws. Rinse, repeat.

Bama would push back in front, but the Vols would push back. Tied at 61-61 with under four to go, we got this beauty:

https://twitter.com/TreyWallace_/status/1224874587684573186

(Uros Plavsic is the MVP of bench celebrations on this night.)

Alabama fans will be quick to point out the foul differential – 14 against the Vols, 26 on the Tide which eventually disqualified their three best post players – but we’ll be quick to point out how bad the Vols had been at getting to the line in league play, and what a huge difference it can make.

Tennessee never trailed after Fulkerson’s slam, but Bama had a shot down two in the final seconds. Yves Pons said no:

Yves Pons with the huge block for Tennessee. pic.twitter.com/KpTIeEhhyt

— Trey Wallace (@TreyWallace_) February 5, 2020

…and then made two free throws to put the Vols up four, making Bama’s buzzer three meaningless.

What a huge win, in joyous and unexpected fashion.

The Vols were 2-of-18 from three and survived Bama hitting 11 of them by way of 23-of-32 at the line. Alabama shot eight free throws. Offensive rebounds, the bane of Tennessee’s existence last week? Nine for the Tide, 19 (!!!) for the Vols. Kentucky will present a much bigger challenge, literally and figuratively, in this department, but kudos to the Vols for completely turning this aspect around.

And while the Vols still had 13 turnovers of their own, Alabama gave it away 20 times. All of Tennessee’s weaknesses saw vast improvement tonight, and it was enough for a big Quad I win on the road.

Fulkerson finishes with 22 points on 8-of-9 shooting, including 6-of-6 in the first half. He and Pons each had three blocks. Bowden struggled at 5-of-17 but still finished with 20 points because he got to the line 11 times. The Vols still got very little scoring from their bench – two from Drew Pember- but got great hustle minutes and two steals from Davonte Gaines. Santiago Vescovi was 2-of-15 (!) from the floor but earned the J.P. Prince Stat Sheet of the Night: 8 points, 8 rebounds, 5 assists, 3 steals, and only 1 turnover.

It was easy to give up on this game and, in some ways, this team late in the first half. And yet, they found a way by minimizing their weaknesses and maximizing the free throw line. It’s fun to watch guys like Fulkerson get better and then know they’ll also be around next year to play with all the new toys. But tonight’s win also keeps the Vols in the hunt this season. And Big Blue Nation is up next.

Go Vols.

SEC play hits the halfway point this week, with LSU a stubborn 8-0 to lead the way. This is where I’d like to joke about their strength of schedule – currently 13th in league play and only one match-up against both Auburn and Kentucky the whole year – but guess who’s 14th?

That will change in a hurry for Tennessee, who catches both Auburn and Kentucky twice in the last ten games as well as four other Quad 1 opportunities. The Vols’ 4-4 start to league play and current three-game skid looks even more challenging in the light of what’s to come. But in conference play, Tennessee’s hodgepodge lineup is actually doing a handful of important things really well. They’re just also doing a handful of important things worse than anyone else in the league.

Mississippi State’s second half dominance knocked the Vols from atop the SEC defensive perch, but Tennessee is still second in Ken Pomeroy’s defensive efficiency ratings behind South Carolina. The Vols are first in the SEC in effective field goal percentage allowed and first in defending inside the arc, thanks in large part to being first in shot-blocking. And teams are shooting just 28.2% against the Vols from the arc in league play, fifth-best in the SEC.

It’s all the makings of a really good defense, except for one thing: the Vols are dead last in offensive rebounding percentage allowed. And it’s not close: in SEC play, the Vols surrender the rebound on 36.1% of opponent misses. Coincidentally, Texas A&M is 13th at 33%.

The Vols allowed the rebound on 57.5% of A&M’s misses, thankfully by far the worst number of the season. But the Vols haven’t been good at keeping opponents off the glass in league play: Missouri got 28.2% of their rebounds, and every other opponent was over 30%.

Tennessee’s defense has been really good in every other facet, but has become so bad at allowing second chances that it’s negating much of their good work. On the other end of the floor in league play, the Vols are third in effective field goal percentage, third in shooting percentage inside the arc, fourth in three-point shooting (33%), and fourth at the free throw line (77.4%). Those are really solid splits, and when combined with a really good defense, Tennessee should be winning fairly often.

But here’s the problem: shooting 77.4% at the line matters less when you can’t get there. Tennessee is last in the SEC in free throw rate, getting to the line on just 30.4% of their field goal attempts. Ole Miss is 13th at 33.3%. And the Vols are last in the SEC in turnover percentage, giving the ball away on 20.9% of their possessions (Georgia is right behind at 20.7%).

When the Vols don’t turn it over, they shoot it well (still almost exclusively a byproduct of good ball movement, as Tennessee is third nationally in assist rate). But they don’t help themselves by getting to the line, and giving the ball away one out of five times down the floor tends to prevent any real runs from developing.

Meanwhile, Tennessee’s first shot defense is really good, especially inside the arc. But they keep giving teams second shots, which tends to break everything down.

Maybe all of this gets filed away for next year if this team continues to struggle this way. But it’s strange to see Tennessee be so good at some of the core components of good basketball, but struggle so much at some of the others.