Tennessee at Auburn: The Gauntlet We Need

In the KenPom era (2002-present), Tennessee’s average strength of schedule is 27th nationally. The last three years it ranked 16th, 11th, and 25th. By this metric Tennessee played a Top 25 schedule four times in Bruce Pearl’s tenure, and never finished lower than 34th in those six years. And though it slipped a bit between the Pearl and Barnes eras (average strength of schedule from Cuonzo’s first season through Barnes’ first season: 45th), the expectation of a schedule that will help you on Selection Sunday is clearly here to stay under the current administration.

That certainly looked to be the case this season. Going in knowing the Vols would face Washington, Florida State, Purdue/VCU, Memphis, Cincinnati, Wisconsin, and Kansas? It more than passed the test.

What happened?

• Washington, still 65th in KenPom, is an unbelievable 12-15 after a 10-2 start. They’ve now lost nine in a row, five by six points or less.
• Florida State is 22-4 and a two seed in the Bracket Matrix, check.
• VCU is 17-9, losers of three straight, next four out in the Bracket Matrix.
• Memphis is 18-8 but just 7-6 in the American, the seventh-best conference in KenPom, and played most of the season without James Wiseman. They’re in two of 116 brackets in the matrix.
• Cincinnati is 17-9 and has now played four consecutive overtime games, including a double overtime loss to UCF on Wednesday when a half-court prayer was answered just after the buzzer. They also played three straight overtime games in November! They’re last four in.
• Wisconsin is 16-10 but 9-6 in the Big Ten, meaning they’re the closest of this group to locking up a seed other than Florida State and…
• Kansas, 23-3 and still number one in KenPom, check.

The Vols got their money’s worth from the Seminoles and Jayhawks. Everyone else on what we thought would be a dynamite non-conference slate has become the bubble or worse.

Meanwhile, the SEC currently has no teams in the KenPom Top 25. Kentucky is 28th with Florida, LSU, and Auburn all in the 30’s. It’s shaping up to be the weakest SEC since 2014, when Florida went undefeated in conference play and the league put just three teams in the NCAA Tournament, including the Vols in Dayton. The matrix puts four in right now, with Alabama, Mississippi State, and Arkansas all in the first five out.

In a sense, the Vols have been betrayed by both the schedule and the conference. Tennessee’s strength of schedule is currently 59th in KenPom. It’ll go up from here, but how far? Tennessee lost to Florida State by three and at Kansas by six. They’re competitive with the very best they’ve faced. The Vols are 64th in NET and can still get to at least 19 wins, keeping them within historical thresholds for an at-large bid at the moment. But it’s anyone’s guess on such a weak bubble.

And if that’s the case, the best argument might end up being for teams that get hot late…which is exactly what Tennessee has to have to get in anyway.

Better Late Than Never

That sense of frustration with the schedule carries over to these next two games, the start of what we’ve long known to be an end-of-season gauntlet. But Auburn just lost two straight on the road by double digits to Missouri and Georgia, both triple-digit squads in KenPom. The Tigers are still 22-4 but missing freshman Isaac Okoro, one of their most reliable scorers. Meanwhile Arkansas has lost five in a row: two in overtime, one by a single point, and a pair of blowouts at Tennessee and Florida.

So the bad news is what looked like opportunities against a Top 10 foe and a tournament team are now games against teams who’ve two and five straight. The good news: Tennessee needs wins, and perhaps now the odds are a little more in their favor.

The Vols’ only two Quad 1 wins are against VCU with Lamonte Turner and at Alabama. Both are next four out in the matrix. If you want the best win of the year and the first over a tournament lock? Here it is.

Without Okoro, Auburn fell into the bad shot selection trap at Missouri: 20-of-28 from two, but 1-of-17 from three. The Tigers also got to the line an insane 46 times (on the road!), but missed 16 free throws. Meanwhile Missouri was hot: 55% from the floor, 7-of-13 from three, and they won by a dozen.

Auburn followed their 1-of-17 performance with 4-of-26 from the arc at Georgia. They beat LSU (with Okoro) by going 18-of-44 from three (40.9%). But that was their best performance from the arc in league play, and perhaps created an unnecessary reliance. You might recall Bruce Pearl’s 2009 Vol squad, which was the worst three-point shooting team in that year’s NCAA Tournament…and then fired off 33 threes in the first round loss to Oklahoma State.

The Tigers are the worst three-point shooting team in SEC play at just 26.9% from the arc. Sure, they can get hot – Auburn is third nationally in luck via KenPom, see the LSU game most recently – but it’s clearly become an issue, especially without Okoro. The thing they’re best at is limiting second chances offensively, leading the league in offensive rebound percentage allowed. But that hasn’t been a ton of Tennessee’s game.

The most interesting match-up here: when the Tigers don’t shoot a three and go to the rim, who wins the battle between shot-blocking and drawing fouls? Tennessee is first in the SEC in blocked shots. Auburn is first in the SEC in free throw rate. Austin Wiley has the size, but Auburn’s guards have been the best at drawing fouls. Okoro was good at this, but Samir Doughty is great at it and shoots 78% once he’s at the stripe. How the Vols stop penetration, rotate, and protect the rim without fouling will go a long way to determining the outcome here.

If you’re looking for tournament scenarios, it’s not quite must-win yet. But the alternative is probably winning at Rupp, or winning multiple games in the SEC Tournament. Might as well win this one.

High noon, CBS. Go Vols.