Author Archives: Will Shelton

We’ll probably all find out who’s starting for Tennessee within an hour of kickoff. If it’s Brian Maurer, interest will certainly rise, regardless of #3 Georgia on the other sideline. But Tennessee’s recent history suggests the magic bullet usually isn’t:

2017: Jarrett Guarantano vs South Carolina

• 11-of-18 (61.1%) for 133 yards (7.4 ypa), zero TD/INT

Four of those completions and 72 of those yards came in the final 1:13, with Guarantano taking advantage of South Carolina’s prevent defense. The Vols got looks at the end zone but couldn’t get in. Tennessee ran the ball 39 times to 19 passing attempts, kicked three field goals, and lost 15-9.

2013: Josh Dobbs at #9 Missouri

• 26 of 42 (61.9%) for 240 yards (5.7 ypa), zero TD, 2 INT

Dobbs also ran the ball seven times for 45 yards, but Tennessee never threatened in a 31-3 loss to a Missouri program we were probably still learning to take seriously. He was also forced into action due to injury.

2013: Nathan Peterman at #19 Florida

• 4-of-11 (36.3%) for 5 yards (0.5 ypa), zero TD, 2 INT

No need to beat a dead horse here.

2011: Justin Worley vs #13 South Carolina

• 10-of-26 (38.5%) for 105 yards (4.0 ypa), zero TD, 2 INT

The Vols turned a muffed South Carolina punt into a 3-0 early lead, then didn’t score again. Tennessee was turned away on 4th-and-1 at the South Carolina 44 late in the first half, then had 1st-and-Goal at the Carolina 2 after an interception by Prentiss Waggner. Worley threw an interception two plays later, and Carolina responded with an infamous 20-play drive for an insurmountable 14-3 lead.

2010: Tyler Bray at Memphis

• 19-of-33 (57.6%) for 333 yards (9.8 ypa), 5 TD, 0 INT

Pro tip: it helps to play 2010 Memphis in your first career start!

2008: Nick Stephens at #10 Georgia

• 13-of-30 (43.3%) for 208 yards (6.9 ypa), 2 TD, 0 INT

Though no one would master the Clawfense, this wasn’t bad, really. Georgia easily took away the run (15 carries, 1 yard) but Stephens kept Tennessee around all day.

2006: Jonathan Crompton at #11 Arkansas

• 16-of-34 (47.1%) for 174 yards (5.1 ypa), 2 TD, 1 INT

Crompton’s first glimpse is remembered fondly when he replaced a gimpy Erik Ainge the week before against LSU, then almost led the Vols to victory on the strength of throwing deep to Robert Meachem. The next week at Arkansas he was far less successful; Ainge returned from injury to guide the Vols to the Outback Bowl.

The combined stat line in the first-time starts from Guarantano, Dobbs, Peterman, and Worley (three of them coming against Top 20 teams): 51-of-97 (52.6%) for 483 yards (4.98 ypa), zero touchdowns, six interceptions. And it’s not just passing touchdowns: JG, Dobbs, Peterman, and Worley failed to lead a single offensive touchdown drive in those four games.

If it’s Maurer, we should take the same long view for the program and place it on his shoulders. Anything he does well would be progress compared to his contemporaries. And if it’s nothing but struggle? He might still grow into anything from Worley’s respectable performances under Butch Jones or Peterman’s under Chaney at Pitt. And hey, that Dobbs kid did pretty well the next time he was a mid-season replacement starter.

You absolutely never know. But for a mid-season replacement against a ranked team, we are unfortunately good at guessing. As with everything else Tennessee right now, there’s definitely the opportunity to surprise. Maybe he will. If Maurer does, delightful. If he doesn’t, the better data point will come next week.

One of the most popular things I ever wrote in eight years at Rocky Top Talk has an unfortunate headline in hindsight: What’s Wrong With Tennessee Football Has Nothing To Do With Derek Dooley.

We published it in 2011 after the Vols lost 14-3 to #9 South Carolina in Justin Worley’s first start, an effort to look at the big picture in the midst of what felt like a lost season. Tennessee lit the flames of expectation that year with a win over Cincinnati, then lost Justin Hunter the next week and Tyler Bray two games later. As a result, the Vols lost by 31 to #1 LSU, 31 to #2 Alabama, then failed to score a touchdown against the Gamecocks.

Dooley, of course, eventually became part of what was wrong with Tennessee football. The Vols lost at #8 Arkansas by 42, beat Vanderbilt in Bray’s return, then infamously lost to Kentucky’s WR/QB. Dooley hired Sal Sunseri to run his defense, and that was that.

But the truth of Tennessee’s struggles up to that point remained: a three-year recruiting failure in 2007, 2008, and 2009. The 2007 class was ranked third and universally praised. The 2008 class was a disaster from the word go, ranked 35th with Fulmer still at the helm. And Lane Kiffin’s 2009 class lost half of its signees by the time I wrote that story in October 2011. From 2007-09 Tennessee signed 31 blue chip players (four or five-stars). One was Eric Berry. But only two others became long-term starters.

So that was the argument: Tennessee is losing games because the other teams have better players.

If long-term starters is still the benchmark, then what Jeremy Pruitt is working with isn’t exactly the same situation, or as easy to rationalize. Butch Jones’ 2016 class – the guys who should be seniors this year – included 10 blue chips in a class of 23 (43.5%). Seven of those guys became/are consistent starters, including Nigel Warrior, Jarrett Guarantano, Marquez Callaway, and Daniel Bituli on this year’s team. Add in Jonathan Kongbo, Alexis Johnson, and some starting duties for Ryan Johnson. The Vols lost only Marquill Osborne to transfer.

One of the biggest problems Pruitt faces right now is the 2017 class. Signed in the fading light of the Butch Jones era, Tennessee landed only five blue chip players in a class of 28 (17.9%). The two highest-rated signees are Trey Smith and Ty Chandler. But the other three blue chips – Maleik Gray, Eric Crosby, and Will Ignont – have transferred, retired from football, and failed to make the travel squad to Florida.

A significant percentage of what Tennessee is trying to get done right now is with three-star players from this class: LaTrell Bumphus, Matthew Butler, Kivon Bennett, Theo Jackson, Riley Locklear, K’Rojhn Calbert, Josh Palmer, Shawn Shamburger (and Brent Cimaglia!).

Pruitt’s quick turnaround 2018 class – the first to wrestle with the early signing period – landed eight blue chips in a class of 22 (36.4%). The highest-rated signee was J.J. Peterson, who remains a mystery. But the other seven guys are all already starters or would be if they were healthy: Alontae Taylor, Greg Emerson, Bryce Thompson, Dominick Wood-Anderson, Jordan Allen, Emmitt Gooden, and Jerome Carvin.

And Pruitt is already giving significant snaps to his three highest-rated signees from 2019 – Darnell Wright, Wanya Morris, Henry To’o To’o – plus Eric Gray.

Current recruiting is the very best reason to hope in Pruitt. The 2019 class had a dozen blue chips in a class of 22 (54.5%), the best ratio since Fulmer in 2005. The 2020 commitment list includes seven blue chips with 14 on the board (including a two-star long snapper). This is championship-level recruiting.

The Vols, of course, also have to develop that talent. Butch Jones recruited at a championship level in 2014 and 2015 and came close in 2016, but we all know that story. The ratios are already better with Pruitt, but right now the Vols are facing a significant hole from the class of 2017. And no matter what, the Vols have more talent than Georgia State and BYU.

At the end of the recruiting decade, I pulled Tennessee’s highest-rated signee at every position since the class of 2010 via 247’s database:

QB	Jarrett Guarantano
RB	Jalen Hurd
WR	Da’Rick Rogers
WR	Justin Hunter
WR	Josh Malone
TE	Daniel Helm
OT	Darnell Wright
OG	Trey Smith
C	James Stone
OG	Jackson Lampley
OT	Wanya Morris
DL	Kyle Phillips
DL	Kahlil McKenzie
DL	Shy Tuttle
LB	J.J. Peterson
LB	Henry To’oTo’o
LB	Quavaris Crouch
CB	Alontae Taylor
CB	Marquill Osborne
NB	Byron Moore
FS	Nigel Warrior
SS	Todd Kelly Jr.

You’ll notice a couple of things here. First of all, nine of these guys are on the current roster, including three starting offensive linemen and all three linebackers. Kudos to Pruitt’s staff for recruiting so well at those positions.

Of the remaining 13 guys, the same number (five) left the program as made it from Tennessee to the NFL (Hunter, Malone, Stone, Phillips, Tuttle). The Vols’ biggest NFL talents of this decade – Cordarrelle Patterson, Derek Barnett, and Alvin Kamara – fall just outside the highest rated signees at their positions.

So, as with all things, you really have to wait and see. The current team struggles, in part, from recruiting at the end of Butch Jones’ tenure and the nature of a coaching change with an early signing period. The brightest spots for Pruitt are recruiting wins, including plenty of freshmen on this year’s team. The nearly lost blue chip class of 2017 hurts right now, but it can’t be all of Tennessee’s problems. You have to hope that all of this gets better at the same time: Pruitt’s coaching and development skills alongside really strong recruiting classes, with both parts of that equation clearly still finding their way.

2019 has become about 2020; really, it’s about 2021 and beyond. If the Vols somehow find a way to get to six wins this season, we’ll rightfully celebrate it. But Tennessee’s win expectancy hovered around 4.2 on our site before the Gators won 34-3. With Georgia and Alabama still to come, Tennessee is looking at a scenario where it needs to go 5-1 against Mississippi State, South Carolina, UAB, Kentucky, Missouri, and Vanderbilt. I think the Vols can win games in that stretch to extend the conversation. But five-of-six asks for a consistency that seems beyond what this team has shown itself capable of.

There’s a mental concern too: how long will this team keep fighting at 1-3 when it seemed to fold after Guarantano got knocked out of the Missouri game last year at 5-5? Wes Rucker advocates holding out on a full-on youth movement until after the Alabama game, while playing upperclassmen with NFL futures to help their stock. Something like that could still represent progress in the back half of the season when the schedule does lighten just a bit, but you’ll still need some kind of investment from both upper-and-underclassmen for progress to show up.

As others have pointed out (including the most well-rounded take I’ve seen from Andy Staples at The Athletic), it’s a fairly simple equation for Pruitt and Tennessee in the big picture. It’s in no one’s best interests for the Vols to move on from him this season. From a competitiveness standpoint, the Vols are at the lowest point of my lifetime; we said even after BYU it’s best to measure progress from the bottom instead of to the top. It’s funny: I thought that might be a little more freeing when watching Tennessee against Florida, but so many of the mistakes still bring the same feelings of frustration.

Pushing the reset button right now just adds time to the clock. The Vols need to compete well enough, with some wins thrown in, for Pruitt to continue to recruit at a reasonable level. I’m not worried about Tennessee’s national ranking of 22 in recruiting for 2020 right now; the Vols are still at the blue chip ratio target of 50% in that class, which would make two years in a row. But with only 14 commits at the moment, will they be able to stay there or close to it as we approach the signing period? One thing slowing the process right now is the makeup of Butch Jones’ final recruiting class, when the Vols couldn’t parlay any momentum left from consecutive 9-4 ranked finishes into anything better than five blue chip players in a class of 27 in 2017.

Even before Georgia State, we thought it was true the guys who would ultimately decide Pruitt’s fate weren’t the upperclassmen on this roster. That was especially true at quarterback. Fans are going to be quick to anoint Harrison Bailey, and we’ll see. But you can at least create reasonable competition if you play Brian Maurer, whether now or after Alabama. Guarantano does have a year left, but might also find a graduate transfer situation appealing after all he’s been through.

It will always be worth pointing out that Jim Chaney has been part of the two biggest QB reclamation projects I’ve ever seen involving Tennessee players. Jonathan Crompton was 61-of-122 (50%) for 667 yards (5.5 ypa) with four touchdowns and six interceptions against UCLA, Florida, Ohio, and Auburn in 2009. And then he played himself into the NFL Draft in the second half of the season. Any conversation about Guarantano’s performance being the worst we’ve ever seen has clearly forgotten Nathan Peterman in the same venue six years earlier; Chaney was with him the first of two years at Pitt, which led to eight NFL appearances.

The difference with Guarantano is he appears to be getting worse. And with Georgia and Alabama on the horizon, the windows for improvement are shrinking.

We’re also aware a youth movement is already underway in several spots. Guys who will ultimately be involved in the big picture conversation about Pruitt – Eric Gray, multiple offensive linemen, Henry To’o To’o, most of the secondary – are already in the mix. Unfortunately, there aren’t many of those options on the defensive line, where the Vols simply are who they are: a group replacing every starter and without Emmitt Gooden that cannot generate any pressure against an SEC offensive line by themselves. The youth movement there is in high school: BJ Ojulari and Dominic Bailey join Harrison Bailey and safety Keshawn Lawrence as Tennessee’s highest-rated commits.

But you also can’t roll into 2020 expecting to make decisions about Pruitt based on what freshmen defensive linemen do in the SEC. This whole thing is going to last longer than anyone wanted to get figured out.

If Pruitt continues to recruit reasonably well, you at least let him put more talent on the roster and really see if he can grow into this job. He stays long enough to decrease the buyout and do the thing Kiffin, Dooley, and Butch Jones failed to do: leave the program in better shape than they found it.

There’s also a long-term scheduling note here, one that hasn’t paid off for Tennessee this season but might in the future. The Vols are going to be massive underdogs when they go to Oklahoma next September. But after that, there’s a relative dip in Tennessee’s schedule over the next few years. All those jokes about Tennessee and Arkansas needing to play each other for morale will come true next season when the Vols go to Fayetteville. In 2021, it’s Ole Miss in Knoxville. And the Vols will go home-and-home with Pittsburgh in 2021 and 2022, followed by the return match with BYU in Provo in 2023. There are no guarantees, but at least Pruitt isn’t facing the same scheduling gauntlet Butch Jones saw (Oregon, Oklahoma, Oklahoma, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech in the non-conference; Auburn, Ole Miss, Arkansas, Texas A&M, LSU from the SEC West).

The one assumption for this season was progress. That’s still important, it just looks a lot different. The real goal now is maintaining investment: with players, with recruits, and with fans week-to-week. Can the Vols compete enough to make us believe they have a chance to win when we turn on the TV against everyone other than Georgia and Alabama? The Vols clearly weren’t beating the Gators, but going forward you’d like to see less of four turnovers and four personal fouls and more winning and losing honestly. It’s the best way to continue to make an honest assessment of Jeremy Pruitt, and the reality of where this program is right now.

We’ve made much of Tennessee running fewer plays than any team in the country last year. The Vols took a few overtime snaps, but are nonetheless 69th in total plays through three games this year (stats via SportSource Analytics). Tennessee is averaging 68.3 snaps per game; last year it was 59.7.

The Vols are also more balanced on first down so far this year. Last year Tennessee ran the ball 69.7% of the time on first down; this year the Vols are at 61.4%. The late attempt to rally against Georgia State and the backup snaps against Chattanooga help balance out the equation.

Last year Tennessee’s passing was extremely balanced: Guarantano had 80 attempts on first down, 78 on second, and 82 on third. Under Jim Chaney, Guarantano has been far more likely to come out firing: 31 passing attempts on first down, compared to 23 on second down and 19 on third down. But at least so far, Guarantano’s struggles don’t seem to come alongside passing more on first down: he’s 20-of-31 (64.5%) for 339 yards (10.9 ypa) and no interceptions.

We know last year Guarantano was really good on third down; add in Tennessee’s struggles to run on third-and-short, and statistically it was better for the Vols to face third-and-medium and let him throw it. So far this year? Guess who leads the nation in third down completion percentage?

On third down, Guarantano is 16-of-19 (84.2%) for 171 yards (9.0 ypa). Now, you’ll point out that his completion percentage is higher because the Vols have been making too many safe throws behind the sticks on third down. And you’re right in part: despite the ridiculous completion percentage, the Vols have converted only eight times on his 19 third down passes. So far Tennessee’s entire third-and-short package has struggled: on 3rd-and-1-3, Guarantano is 3-for-3 for two yards and one first down.

Third-and-medium has been mixed: Guarantano is 4-of-7 for 40 yards with a touchdown, an interception, and only three first downs on those seven attempts. But on 3rd-and-7-10+, Guarantano is 9-of-9 for 129 yards (14.3 ypa). Four of those nine third-and-long completions led to first downs.

Guarantano has been okay on first down, and so far Chaney is mixing it up more than his predecessor. And he’s been really good, again, on third-and-long. It’s the tighter windows on third down where JG is struggling more. And you can see it on fourth down too: 1-of-3 for five yards coming via the tipped touchdown by Jennings against BYU.

Issues are also easier to spot when the Vols get thrown off schedule. Guarantano on second down this year: 13-of-23 (56.5%) for 114 yards (4.9 ypa). When the Vols are unsuccessful on first down and then go back to the pass on second down, it’s been less fruitful.

Some good news here: the Vols have allowed only 13 tackles for loss, 35th nationally. Tennessee was 116th in that category last year, 112th in 2017. The number may go down as the Vols face SEC competition starting this week, but there does appear to be some real improvement on the offensive line.

In the first half against Georgia State, the Vols had gains of two yards or less on first down seven times. But Tennessee still converted six of those series into first downs. Then in the second half, the Vols had gains of two yards or less on first down five times, and failed to turn any of those series into first downs or touchdowns.

By my count, the Vols were 12-of-17 in similar situations against BYU. That’s pretty good! There’s an unanswerable question in here about how much of this was/is mental: a case of the oh-nos in the second half against Georgia State, tightening up on third-and-medium and fourth down, etc. But on first down, and on third-and-long, Guarantano is still relatively sharp.

Going forward, the Vols could trade sharp for spectacular: Tennessee has just 10 plays of 20+ yards so far this season. That’s 98th nationally, and better than only a dozen teams who’ve played three games.

All of this goes into the pot for Jim Chaney when game-planning for the Gators. Your quarterback is good on first down and third-and-long. He’s struggled so far when the windows got tighter. You need more big plays, but also have to block well enough to set them up against the best defense you’ve seen yet. The offense may have a tendency to get tight, so how aggressive do you want to be in the early going when it backfired so spectacularly against this team last year?

I’m not sure what to expect. But it should be our best data point yet. Here’s hoping the Vols make it a good one.

Just before kickoff of the first Tennessee-Florida game as Eastern Division rivals in 1992 (after the old SEC rotation brought them on each other’s schedule in 1990 and 1991), one of my dad’s friends made a comment in our section about how the Gators would soon become Tennessee’s biggest rival. To my 10 year old brain, that was blasphemy – and it still sounds a little that way at 37 – but if we’d all known what was coming, we might’ve agreed.

The other answer to that question is a rivalry built on streaks. This one, turning 30 this week, has arguably carried a more potent brand of both agony and ecstasy. Alabama and Tennessee take turns being big brother. With the Gators, Tennessee has been little brother that wins just enough for us to want more.

Images from those wins are burned in our memories. Dale Carter to open the second half. Mose Phillips in the rain. No-sir-ree. Travis Stephens vs Guss Scott. James Banks and James Wilhoit. And Jauan Jennings gleefully coming down the sideline.

A question we asked a lot during the Butch Jones era was some form of, “Doesn’t Tennessee actually have the better team this year?” It’s the one we wanted to be true all those years in the 90’s, when losses could at least be chalked up to elite competition. As lesser Florida teams still found a way to turn the Vols into even lesser versions of themselves, the rivalry evolved into a new level of frustration. The Gators were, for a long time, the team standing between Tennessee and the top of the mountain. Most recently they’ve become the team that’s kept Tennessee from being “back”.

There’s a world of should’ve packed into this decade with the Gators. In the mid-90’s, Florida took hope away early. In the last seven years, they’ve stolen it late. In 2012 the Vols led 20-13 with five minutes left in the third quarter and lost (by 17). In 2014 the Vols led 9-0 on the next-to-last play of the third quarter when Justin Worley was blindsided. The Vols lost. In 2015 the Vols scored to take a 26-14 lead with 10 minutes left in The Swamp, chose not to go for two, and it all went very bad from there. And in 2017 the Vols had 1st-and-goal at the nine with a minute left, settled for three to tie, and you know how that ended too.

So it was almost nostalgic when Florida took Tennessee’s hope right away last season, a hyper-aggressive gameplan backfiring into six turnovers and Tennessee’s first ten drives ending in something other than a punt or a touchdown.

Tennessee doesn’t have the better team this year on paper. In 30 years of doing this, the Vols have been favored to beat Florida seven times (via Covers.com). And the Vols have beaten Florida seven times. Three times, Vegas got it right: the Vols rolled in that first meeting against Spurrier in 1990 from -4.5 to a 45-3 win. Tennessee was -3 in 2004 when James Wilhoit went from goat to hero. And three years ago, the Vols turned -4 into a 21-3 hole into 35 straight points.

Four times, the Vols have lost as a favorite: nightmarish first halves in the rain in 1996 and 2002 in Neyland, that nightmarish finish in 2012, and four years ago in The Swamp, the only time Tennessee has been favored in Gainesville (-1) since the rivalry was played annually.

(I’d rate that loss, by the way, as third-worst of my lifetime. 2001 LSU is the undisputed champion, and I hope stays there for the rest of my life. 1990 Alabama is number two. But I think everything about that 2015 loss – the series of horrendous coaching decisions in those last 10 minutes, the carryover fury from Oklahoma, and the fact that it cost the Vols the SEC East when other infamous losses cost Tennessee far less – it’s the worst of a very bad time these last 12 years.)

Four times, Tennessee pulled the upset. In the downpour in 1992 at +4.5 with a young Phillip Fulmer on the sideline. The eventual National Champions were +3 when Collins Cooper sailed wide. The last win in The Swamp in 2003 came with the Vols +3. And, of course, the +16.5 in December 2001 in what is still the best football game involving one of my teams I’ve ever seen.

This year, the Vols opened at +12.5. It quickly swelled to +14.5. Despite only beating the Gators seven times in 29 tries, +14.5 is the third biggest line the Vols have faced in this series, trailing the 16.5 they turned around in 2001, and the +30 they easily covered when everyone thought Urban Meyer might actually attempt murder on Lane Kiffin.

Unlike the current nature of the Alabama rivalry, where the Vols have faced lines of 29.5, 36.5, 28, and 29 in this decade, Florida is always right there within reach. It’s what makes it hurt more when the Vols fail to grab it. And it’s what makes us hope – even this year – that another Saturday we’ll remember forever might get added to our list.

Two weeks ago today, we talked about how progress was the expectation, and how much would be the fun part. More important than the difference between 6-6 and 7-5 would be how the team performed play-for-play a year after losing six games by four-plus possessions. Preseason projections from SP+ had the Vols within two possessions of every opponent except Alabama; FPI had the Vols within one possession of every opponent except the Tide.

The last two weeks have changed the conversation considerably. Even if the Vols fought their way back to 5-7 – which feels like an accomplishment from here, as our expected win totals this week are hovering around 3.45 – there is, of course, an actual difference between 5-7 and 6-6. Coming that close to bowl eligibility at the end of November would make us re-live the pain of the BYU loss.

Progress may be best measured now not in the distance to the top, but the distance from the bottom. That being the case, there’s an even more compelling argument to focus on what this team does on every snap…because there is still plenty of opportunity to be far more competitive this season.

In that department, you’re going to want to believe in FPI more than SP+. Tennessee’s projected margin of victory after this week:

	SP+	FPI
at Florida	-21.6	-14.8
Georgia	-23.4	-14.7
Mississippi St	-11.8	-6
at Alabama	Shut your eyes!	Don’t look at it!
South Carolina	-5	-4.9
UAB	18.6	20.1
at Kentucky	-7.6	-6.2
at Missouri	-14.7	-8.6
Vanderbilt	6.9	7.8

Both models have the Vols favored only against UAB and Vanderbilt after this Saturday, where Tennessee’s line is about where it opened against Georgia State. FPI’s current projection has in part become SP+’s preseason projection: two-score losses to Florida and Georgia, a third squeaking by with Missouri at -8.6, but generally competitive in every other non-Alabama game.

Obviously, a 4-8 season isn’t going to be viewed as an overall success. It’s hard to re-calibrate expectations after a huge upset; it would’ve been interesting to see how the 2016 Vols were received if they beat Vanderbilt to earn a Sugar Bowl bid at 9-3, but still gave away the SEC East after losing to the Gamecocks at -14.5.

Still, week to week what this team (and its fans) need is the idea that Tennessee can compete. We’ll learn a lot about that against Florida. With a win against Chattanooga, the Vols can technically still carry the bowl eligibility conversation to the South Carolina game, with any win before then incredibly helpful. Between now and then, if the Vols can be relatively competitive with Florida, Georgia, and Mississippi State, it will not only be an important sign of progress, it will keep more fans in Neyland Stadium and invested wherever we find ourselves.

The last two weeks are a great reminder that we never know exactly what’s going to happen week to week. It’s a really tough road to six wins now. But the kind of progress that keeps people invested is still available. We’ll see what signs of life show up against Chattanooga.

In a sea of sound bites this week, I thought this one was interesting:

#Vols coach Jeremy Pruitt on his aggressive fourth-down mindset: I’m trying to instill a mindset in these guys that Tennessee goes out there to win games. We want to attack. We want to make you uncomfortable.

— Wes Rucker (@wesrucker247) September 9, 2019

We’ve talked a lot about Pruitt’s nature as it relates to the offense, especially because the Vols ran fewer plays than any team in college football last season. Does he naturally lack aggression? Was he trying to protect a vulnerable defense? And we wondered last week, before Jarrett Guarantano struggled so mightily against BYU, if Pruitt could adapt that kind of philosophy and green light an offense that scored a bunch of points if the defense truly couldn’t stop anyone.

There are fewer questions about the defense and more about the offense after the loss to BYU. But Pruitt’s response about fourth down was noteworthy, especially because the numbers already show a significant change in that department.

The Vols have gone for it five times, which is tied for 14th-most in college football (stats via SportSource Analytics). Your eyes immediately jump to the fact that Tennessee is just 1-for-5 on those conversions, and rightfully so. But big picture, I think five tries in two games is more significant…especially because Tennessee only went for it on fourth down 11 times last year.

That ranked 126th in college football; among teams that missed a bowl game, only Maryland had fewer attempts last season. In 2018 Tennessee came out of this particular gate fast: 2-of-3 on fourth down against West Virginia, successful conversions against ETSU and UTEP, and an 0-for-2 as part of a hyper-aggressive gameplan against the Gators. The Vols also went 0-for-2 against South Carolina on their final two drives…then didn’t try it again the rest of the year.

We saw a conservative nature on fourth down for the entire Butch Jones tenure:

Year	4th Down Att	Rank	Per Game
2019	5	14	2.5
2018	11	126	0.92
2017	10	124	0.83
2016	9	126	0.69
2015	17	84	1.31
2014	12	115	0.92
2013	11	114	0.92
2012	19	65	1.58
2011	28	10	2.33
2010	17	61	1.31
2009	24	13	1.85

The last consistently aggressive coach on fourth down was Lane Kiffin, who tried one in every game except the blowout win over Georgia. It doesn’t always work: the Vols were denied twice in a frustrating loss to UCLA. And when it does, it doesn’t guarantee victory: the Vols went 5-for-5 combined in narrow losses to Auburn and Alabama. But the willingness to go is something we never saw with Jones, and only saw as a reaction to Dooley’s least competitive team with an injury-riddled offense in 2011. Seventeen of those 28 attempts that season came in games featuring Matt Simms or Justin Worley at quarterback.

I like Pruitt’s quote, and I like the idea. Football coaches find forgiveness much faster for sins of aggression than the other way around. Had the Vols trotted out Cimaglia (and he continued to be automatic) on 4th-and-1 at the BYU 30 with 4:15 to go instead of trying Josh Palmer on the end around, Tennessee leads 19-13 and now BYU needs two hail maries instead of one.

And I’ve heard zero people make that point.

Call it confidence or aggression, but it tends to be rewarded over time. We’re especially appreciative of it after the previous administration courted close games every year. I’m hopeful Pruitt continues down this path, especially because it would represent doing something different. It’s one thing to say you’re learning, it’s another to demonstrate it.

You also can’t be aggressive for the sake of being aggressive. The Vols still struggle to run the ball in short yardage situations after being last by a mile in that stat last season. In two games, when running on 3rd-and-1-3 and 4th down, the Vols have nine carries for 24 yards. The 2.67 average is better. But those nine carries have still only produced five first downs. The Vols can be both smart and aggressive in their play-calling; again, that’s why I don’t hate the end-around, because at least it wasn’t another stuffed attempt into the center of the pile.

The larger issue everyone is invested in is building the mindset Pruitt references. Coach like you believe in your players, and it’s easier for them to believe in themselves. Belief is hard to come by after two games in Knoxville. But in the big picture, the fourth down mindset represents a hopeful shift in Pruitt’s philosophy, and will hopefully lead to a young team and a young coach continuing to grow in the right direction.

ESPN’s win probability data is available on their Gamecast page for every game since 2016, one year shy of the most famous blown late leads of this decade. So I can’t quantify the comparison, at least in this way, between the BYU loss and what happened against Oklahoma or Florida in 2015 or the Gators in 2014. Much is being made of BYU having a 99.6% chance of defeat when the ball was snapped on the penultimate play of regulation. The Vols were so fond of close games under Butch Jones, outcomes with a 90+% guarantee often went the other way. In 2016 the Gators had a 90.5% chance of victory up 21-3 midway through the third quarter. The next week the Vols were at 98.6% when Jacob Eason hit his hail mary, then the Dawgs at 99.9% when Josh Dobbs hit his. And against Georgia Tech in 2017, the Yellow Jackets had a 90.6% chance of victory on their snap that became the fumble that gave the Vols a final chance in regulation.

So sure, it’s brutal to lose when you have a 99.6% chance of victory in the final minute. But this one was particularly and uniquely painful because the Vols also controlled the entire game up to that point. ESPN’s win probability had the Vols at better than 60% for the entire game before that play, and better than 70% save for a few moments after Jarrett Guarantano’s third quarter interception and BYU’s lone touchdown in regulation. The Vols never led by more than 10, but the outcome never really felt in doubt once you saw that this team came to fight.

If coming to fight was step one, the defense denying Brigham Young for almost all of regulation was step two. And in passing those two tests, the Vols did take the worst of what we were all thinking off the table: that the team would fold, or that the defensive front was so outmatched it would be as if they did when playing someone better than Georgia State. But by putting this kind of gut-punching loss on the table – a first for Jeremy Pruitt, but not for this decade or the upperclassmen on the roster – the dots stay connected, the team folding creeps back into our thought process, and the big picture gets a little more blurry.

As for where Jeremy Pruitt fits in that picture, I think we can safely say there’s not a knowable scenario where it’s in Tennessee’s best interests to fire him this season. My assumption is it would take a cataclysmic finish like 2-10 to make the Vols eat the $9 million buyout, and even then maybe not. So much of that, and the big picture itself, depends on continuing to recruit at a high level. Tennessee has to play well enough to maintain interest from the kind of talent it will take to turn this thing around.

That, like a lot of things, is less about a specific number of wins and more about what progress looks like on the field. This team could finish something like 2-10 and still not lose six games by 25+ points the way they did last year. Hopefully Tennessee’s actual progress looks closer to six wins than two; I’ve got them splitting the difference at exactly 4.00 in our GRT Expected Win Total Machine.

We’ve spent so much time since 2008 trying to figure out how close we were to the top. Perhaps the better question for the present is measuring how close we are to the bottom.

By bottom, I don’t mean just losing to BYU with a 99.6% chance of victory. And that’s also not all I mean by the present.

This might get worse before it gets better. Chattanooga is likely to give the lowest attendance of my lifetime a run for its money. And if the Vols look bad against the Gators, something worse might happen against Georgia: a sell-off to the red & black, turning Neyland Stadium in 2019 into what Commonwealth Stadium looked like in the mid-to-late 90’s when the Vols came calling.

There is so much we want to embrace about who the Vols have been in our lifetimes. But it’s usually healthiest to embrace the truth of one’s present reality. The Vols are a long way from 2007 and a longer way from 1998. Perhaps it’s better for all of us to stop asking how soon we can get back up there, and instead figure out what needs to happen to simply get back up period.

The proverbial year two magic isn’t working for just about anyone right now, and should be Exhibit A for anyone who suggests you just pay as much as it takes on top of a $9 million buyout on top of Butch Jones to get a “sure thing.” Chip Kelly is 0-2 with two two-possession losses and 28 total points. Scott Frost and Nebraska lost to Colorado and looked bad against South Alabama. Willie Taggart is a missed extra point away from 0-2. Only Dan Mullen, who many of us didn’t want any part of, looks like a real success so far.

Obviously year two isn’t working for Tennessee either. But the Vols are so far behind, that entire conversation needs not just the pause button, but to come out of the CD player or VCR or whatever you had in 1998.

The Vols are 0-2 for the first time since 1988, the year before the best stretch in school history began, and the two losses came to Georgia State and BYU. It’s not in anyone’s best interests for the head coach to be somewhere else this season. And the Vols need to make enough progress to continue to recruit well. Things are bad, worse than we thought, and likely to stay that way for a minute or two. The most important thing is progress.

If the Vols truly don’t know how to win, they won’t learn it from 1998 or 2007. And it’s in Tennessee’s best interests to learn it from Jeremy Pruitt’s staff. We need to start measuring that progress not by the distance to the top, but the distance from the bottom.

So what does that progress look like now? Some good news is in the way you got minor glimpses of it against BYU. Ty Chandler’s 154 rushing yards were the most by a Vol running back since…Rajion Neal went for 169 against South Alabama in 2013. The Vols blocked well for long stretches, and the defense created penetration. BYU had 225 yards of offense before the long pass and two overtimes.

I don’t know what’s happening with Jarrett Guarantano. I do know the Vols were the worst team in college football in short yardage rushing last season by a significant margin. In that sense I don’t mind Jim Chaney’s end-around call in the fourth quarter; maybe the Vols should’ve called timeout or checked to something else, but we learned last year this team doesn’t have the horses to just line up and push for a yard consistently.

And I know we’re only two games into this season and 14 into Pruitt’s tenure. I know we probably underestimated, again, the impact of having two brand new coordinators, even when one of them is Jim Chaney. And I know the worst of this schedule is yet to come.

I don’t know what Tennessee’s best can do against it. But I do believe it’s in Tennessee’s best interests for us to pull for it – all of us in the same direction.

Ye olde GRT Expected Win Total Machine has been on quite the ride. Expectations at the start of fall camp hovered around 6.9 wins, rising to 7.2 last week with Trey Smith and Aubrey Solomon eligible and kickoff knocking on the door. But in the aftermath of the Georgia State game (and after removing a few entries that gave the Vols an 80% chance to beat Chattanooga and a 0% chance against the rest of the field, which might be allowed by next week!), things are…less exciting.

The average expectation among our readers is now 3.92 wins on the year. If we’re still allowed to round up, that would put the Vols at 4-8, 5-7, and 4-8 the last three years.

No one’s projection was worth anything against Georgia State, but looking at things through more objective eyes is – hopefully, in this case – still helpful. SP+ and FPI were both high on the Vols coming into the year due to plenty of returning experience. No one lost like Tennessee last week, but several of our opponents didn’t flatter themselves either. As a result, here’s the projected margin of victory for Tennessee in SP+ and FPI going forward:

	SP+	FPI
BYU	9	6.9
Chattanooga	N/A	N/A
at Florida	-15.4	-12.5
Georgia	-18.4	-14.5
Mississippi St	-7.6	-2.7
at Alabama	-32.7	-25.3
South Carolina	0.4	0.3
UAB	22.5	23.5
at Kentucky	-5	-4
at Missouri	-9.8	-3.5
Vanderbilt	5.6	7.4

Both models have the Vols favored by at least 5.5 points in four remaining games, plus a clear toss-up with South Carolina. From there, it gets trickier: the two models continue to disagree on Mississippi State and Missouri, with FPI now listing the trip to Lexington as Tennessee’s most difficult game after the usual suspects from Florida, Georgia, and Alabama.

The date with the Gamecocks is of obvious importance from seven weeks away. Not only might it be one of Tennessee’s best chances to scratch and claw their way back to six wins, but if things go bad against BYU on Saturday it could become the game that eliminates any final hope of bowl eligibility in October.

But first, the Cougars. Vegas still likes the Vols in the neighborhood of a field goal, and both advanced statistical models like Tennessee by more than that; SP+ gives Tennessee a 70% chance of victory, which is what I gave us in the Expected Win Total Machine before the Georgia State loss. So far our readers this week give the Vols a 42.9% chance of victory against the Cougars (again, after removing the zeroes).

I’m more curious than anything, about everything. How many people will show up? How soon would booing commence? And the bigger picture questions: what percentage of Tennessee’s problems from last week are easier to fix – alignment, assignment, etc. – and what percentage of them can’t get fixed any time soon, because they’re the same problems from last season without enough new faces to solve them? And if the latter list is longer, what percentage of fight does this team have in its tank?

There’s some “most important game since ____________” floating around. A couple thoughts about that. The last “most important game” we played was against Georgia in 2017; its importance became the end of the Butch Jones era, not the beginning of any short-term good. The ones before that were all in 2016 with stakes both higher and more tangible. You can argue the long-term stakes are really high for Tennessee right now, and that’s true…but those won’t be ultimately decided by what the Vols do or don’t do against BYU. Tennessee was always playing the long game here. We’ve played games of actual importance recently enough, and been through enough change for longer than that to think anything program-related is going to get decided on Saturday.

In the short-term, this game matters a lot. It might also help us see how long the long-term really is.

If Vegas and the statistical models are right, the Vols will course correct, at least this week, and our scenarios will improve. Or if what we saw defensively for much of last season and the Georgia State game shows up against BYU, we’ll lean hard into the abyss and its enveloping apathy. This is a week when we’ll either be forced to embrace a worst-case scenario, or find a Tennessee team capable of making the best of it. I’m genuinely curious to see which way it goes.

Saturday was Tennessee’s 18th loss as a favorite of at least a touchdown since 1985, which is as far back as the data at Covers.com goes. That’s roughly one every other season, a pace that hasn’t slowed in the last 11 years despite the Vols having far fewer opportunities to be favored by at least a touchdown.

I’ve thought some about the start of these last 11 years today. The Vols lost openers as underdogs to #12 Cal in 2007 and #17 West Virginia last year. The only other Week 1 blip between Jerry Colquitt’s knee in 1994 and yesterday was in 2008: #18 Tennessee a touchdown favorite at UCLA.

How does the way you felt when the Vols lost that game compare to the way you feel today?

In 2008 the Vols were defending SEC East champs, the Tide just went 7-6 with a loss to Louisiana-Monroe, the Gators were coming off a 9-4 campaign, and the Dawgs – preseason #1 – had lost to Tennessee by 39 points over the last two years.

There’s no need to go back through Dave Clawson’s history; to his credit, Wake Forest just beat Utah State 38-35 in a game with nearly 1,200 yards of offense. On days like yesterday there’s still a part of me that imagines an alternate reality where the Vols hired someone else to run the offense in 2008 and none of the last 11 years happened. Still, the Clawfense rightfully drew anger that night in Pasadena, specifically for having Jonathan Crompton throw it 41 times when Arian Foster and Montario Hardesty combined for 162 yards on only 25 carries.

When Tennessee lost that game, I was furious. I think losing in Week 1 is one of the least fun things that happens in college football, because you spend so long waiting for this thing to get here and then it immediately betrays you. Even last year, with the Vols clear underdogs against West Virginia, it’s a special kind of no fun. And losing as a favorite is way worse.

Losing as a four-possession favorite should be way, way worse. But 11 years later, at least for me, it just doesn’t feel that way today.

I’m an optimist by nature and an idiot often. There were a few times in Butch Jones’ tenure where I found myself less affected by a loss, particularly to Florida in 2017. Some of that was the ridiculous nature of that game and its ending, but a lot of it was having had the conversation about Jones’ and the shortcomings of risk management often enough to build in some self-defense.

None of us were prepared for yesterday, no matter the trials and tribulations of these last 11 years. They didn’t build in self-defense on the front end of a new season as a four-possession favorite. I’ve hoped, more this off-season than ever before, that they’ve helped us with perspective. But they’ve also installed a little more “Oh well…” on the back end than might be good for business.

Good Seats Available

Yesterday’s announced attendance: 85,503. The Vols announced better crowds than that in every home game last season. Not just the home opener after the loss to West Virginia (96,464 vs ETSU). But more than 85,000 were announced against UTEP and Charlotte as well. Only the last game against Vanderbilt drew a smaller announced crowd in 2017 (83,117). Jim Chaney’s interim gig vs Kentucky in 2012 drew 81,841.

By contrast, the Vols vs UAB the week after losing to UCLA in 2008: 98,205. Just shy of 100,000 saw that Wyoming game. And Fulmer’s final game vs Kentucky at the end of that season: 102,388.

The first answer to what would make all of this better is, of course, “Beat BYU.” But apathy via attendance – an important factor because you can measure it in $$$ – was a problem before the Vols lost to Georgia State. This part, in particular, might get worse before it gets better.

The thing that made me feel the best today:

https://twitter.com/BudElliott3/status/1168195595724578816

Man, I hope there’s some truth to this. Butch Jones’ first class, with the benefit of no early signing period, added Josh Dobbs and Marquez North after the transition from Derek Dooley. Dobbs might’ve been Arizona State’s pride and joy if an early signing period was available. Butch’s 2014 Vols were perfectly positioned to capitalize on Year Two magic before blowing it against the Gators, but even then Dobbs showed up to change the narrative.

The most praiseworthy parts of yesterday were Jauan Jennings, Brent Cimaglia, and then two freshmen in Eric Gray and Henry To’o To’o. It’s one game, and obviously an infamous one, but those look like guys who can help Tennessee right now and really help them next season. The kind of trajectory we expect from a coach’s initial recruiting haul might now roll over into year three; Pruitt’s tenure here is as old as the early signing period, so we’ll find out together. But it was a happier thought if you’re out on the year two magic already.

For depressing reference, here are all of Tennessee’s losses as at least a touchdown favorite since 1985:

08 Wyoming	27
96 Memphis	26
19 Georgia St	24.5
92 Arkansas	22
86 Army	17
16 South Carolina	14.5
05 South Carolina	14
88 Duke	13.5
86 Mississippi St	11.5
01 Georgia	11.5
05 Vanderbilt	11
09 UCLA	10.5
00 LSU	9
99 Arkansas	7.5
01 LSU	7
04 Notre Dame	7
08 UCLA	7
16 Vanderbilt	7

Yeah, that 2016 South Carolina game looks worse in this context.