Author Archives: Will Shelton

The win itself doesn’t feel like a total surprise, though definitely a relief. The Vols were +5 at the closing line today, and we’re in no position to be ungrateful, so well done by Jeremy Pruitt and his staff in getting their third SEC win as an underdog.

Tennessee coming away with the win doesn’t feel like the headline. But the way it happened, on both sides of the ball, is breaking news.

Seven sacks against an SEC foe? First time this decade. Only 14 passing attempts? Fewest against any opponent this decade.

Selling out to stop the SEC’s leading rusher on one side of the ball, and suddenly playing without your freshman spark at quarterback on the other side? The Vols had no business finding much success impacting MSU’s passing game, or running the ball when everyone knew it was coming.

And yet.

The Vols had 190 rushing yards on 44 carries; 4.3 yards per carry is the third-best mark under Pruitt in SEC play, behind the Kentucky win last year and the Vanderbilt game when the Vols got only 14 carries in falling behind. On this game’s most crucial drive in the fourth quarter, with the Vols facing their worst field position of the day and awaiting diagnosis on a potential case of the oh-no’s in Neyland Stadium, Ty Chandler immediately ran for 6 and 15 yards, then Tim Jordan for 7 and 12. When everyone knew it was coming and the Vols had to have it anyway, they got it. Easily.

Darrell Taylor had two sacks to bring his career total to 14. Bryce Thompson got one blitzing from the secondary. The other four: the first career sacks at Tennessee for Darel Middleton, Matthew Butler, Kivon Bennett, and Aubrey Solomon. Any one of those guys getting a sack today would’ve felt like a bonus coming in. All of them cashed in.

Other than Texas A&M – only four more years until they come to Knoxville for the first time! – we probably have less of a relationship to Mississippi State than any other team in the SEC. That makes it harder to get a feel for their program, expectations, etc. But I’d say one’s opinion on the trajectories of these two programs has shifted in the last couple weeks:

Today’s game was REAL BAD. Lots of things about today’s game were REAL BAD. Check out all the things that were REAL BAD on https://t.co/Fg5ZIyEyFI https://t.co/GU2weooom0

— For Whom the Cowbell Tolls (@mstatesports) October 12, 2019

Because the Bulldogs lost at home to Kansas State, were obliterated by Auburn, had a bye week, and then turned in this performance today? There’s a part of me that’s wondering if Mississippi State is, in fact, real bad, despite being the favorite and finishing eighth in SP+ last season.

Either way, today was real good for Tennessee.

Bama’s next; we know the drill there. The ask on the other side will be four wins in five games against South Carolina, UAB, at Kentucky, at Missouri, and Vanderbilt. After today, we’re firmly in not-probable-but-possible range.

The Vols and Pruitt are still playing the long game. That exercise looked like giant question marks at quarterback and on both sides of the line not at all long ago, the three worst places for uncertainty in the SEC. Midway through the season, the Vols are still 2-4 with costly losses on the front end. But those most important questions, at least for today (and a little bit of last week), look a little more answerable. We’ll see what happens with Brian Maurer’s concussion protocol; credit Jarrett Guarantano for making every throw he needed to make today. Credit Tennessee’s offensive line for not needing those throws. And credit the defensive line – and so many names therein – for going from an absolute liability in game one to holding the SEC’s leading rusher to 11 carries for 13 yards and seven sacks. Seven!

Any win was a good win today; in isolation, this one deserves all the singing and celebration after what we’ve been through. The schedule presents possibility.

But the biggest news of all today wasn’t the what, but the how. Are the young Vols getting significantly better at quarterback, offensive line, and defensive line? For present and future, that’s the biggest news of all.

Beat Bama.

At the midway point of the season, we’ve finally got a game where the match-up itself is the most interesting story.

Not many of us, including me, took the time to preview Georgia State. Bad idea, it turns out, but we made up for it in word count the next week. Then the end of the BYU game ensured Tennessee and Jeremy Pruitt would be the lead story through Chattanooga and into Gainesville, where the Vols lost 34-3 and it seemed like there was no point in talking about how to beat Georgia.

And there probably wasn’t; the quarterback change got our rightful attention. But with Brian Maurer passing his first test against #3 Georgia, “bowl” has re-entered the vocabulary. It’s still probably a conversation for after a win like this one – I’ve got the Vols at 4.25 in expected win total – but Mississippi State comes to Knoxville at 3-2, not the 5-0 some of us thought possible. One of those losses was at home to Kansas State, the other a 56-23 beat down at Auburn in which they trailed 49-9 90 seconds into the third quarter.

Mississippi State is currently favored at -6.5, making this just the second time in the first six games the line is single digits (BYU +3). Something similar happened last season: the Vols were +10 against West Virginia and +3.5 against Florida, then didn’t see single digits again until +9 at South Carolina.

Last season Mississippi State finished 8-5 but 8th in SP+, due to one of the most difficult schedules in college football after catching Kentucky and Florida from the SEC East. They beat Texas A&M 28-13 then rolled Ole Miss 35-3 in Oxford to end the regular season on a high note, though a loss to Iowa in the Outback Bowl soured that a bit. As is the case with the entire field, Year Two has not been as magical for Joe Moorehead.

With all eyes on Maurer, what have opposing quarterbacks done against the Bulldogs this season?

Team	Cmp	Att	Pct	Yds	YPA	TD	INT	Result
Louisiana	24	39	61.54%	267	6.85	1	1	L 38-28
So. Miss.	18	26	69.23%	234	9.00	2	2	L 38-15
Kansas St.	10	18	55.56%	123	6.83	1	0	W 31-24
Kentucky	15	41	36.59%	232	5.66	0	1	L 28-13
Auburn	16	21	76.19%	335	15.95	2	0	W 56-23

Obviously, Bo Nix skews the totals a bit. But so does Sawyer Smith on the other end of the spectrum. On the year, Mississippi State’s 8.1 YPA allowed ranks 102nd in college football. The Bulldogs also have only nine sacks in five games, three coming against Smith and Kentucky.

What’s been most helpful to Mississippi State’s defense: getting off the field on third down, where opponents are converting just 31.4%, 23rd best for a defense. The Vols went 5-of-12 against Georgia; Guarantano was 1-of-3 in late action, though one of those plays was a 3rd-and-20 after a Maurer sack, so the runs go to him.

The Bulldogs have also turned away the opposition five times in 20 red zone appearances, an impressive 75% scoring percentage allowed. But 13 of those 15 scores were touchdowns, making Bob Shoop’s defense feast or famine in the red zone.

Will this be a breath of fresh air for Tennessee’s freshman quarterback after facing Florida and Georgia? The Vols’ young offensive line is banged up, and Mississippi State had last week off. It’s tough to pick Tennessee when the Vols have only beaten Chattanooga. But if you’re looking for a real live opportunity – on a number of levels – this is it.

Go Vols.

We’ve mentioned the struggles Vol quarterbacks faced when making their first start in the middle of a season: Jarrett Guarantano, Josh Dobbs, Nathan Peterman, and Justin Worley all failed to lead a touchdown drive in their first appearance as a starter. Brian Maurer passed that test with flying colors. So, what do mid-season replacements tend to do in their second start?

Guarantano’s second start was at #1 Alabama in 2017. It’s an unfair data point, but here it is anyway: 9-of-16 (56.3%) for 44 yards (2.8 ypa) with no touchdowns and an interception. For the third game in a row and the second under Guarantano, the Vols failed to score an offensive touchdown (though Rashaan Gaulden got six points and two digits).

If you’ll allow game three, Guarantano got much better. At Kentucky the following Saturday, he was 18-of-23 (78.3%) for 242 yards (10.5 ypa). He didn’t throw a touchdown (or an interception), but Ty Chandler did crack the end zone twice. The Vols attempted six field goals, Cimaglia made four of them, but Kentucky prevailed 29-26.

In 2013, Josh Dobbs also went from the frying pan to the fire in his second start. After failing to produce a touchdown drive in a 31-3 loss at #9 Missouri, the Vols returned home to play #9 Auburn. Dobbs’ numbers were about the same: 16-of-25 (64%) for 128 yards (5.1 ypa) with no touchdowns and an interception, plus 10 carries for 50 yards. The Vols did take a 13-6 lead on the first play of the second quarter on a Rajion Neal run, then used a pick six just before halftime to close within 27-20. But Auburn finished the game on a 28-3 run.

Justin Worley’s second start came against MTSU in 2011, a 2-10 Blue Raiders squad. In the frat house kicker game – shout out Derrick Brodus and Alcoa High School – Worley went 23-of-32 (71.9%) for 291 yards (9.1 ypa) with a touchdown in a 24-0 victory.

So the good news: no one got worse. Guarantano played Bama but was much better in start three, Dobbs played two top ten teams and was about the same, Worley was much better against a bad team. That’s a good precedent for Maurer, who gets to take a breath between Georgia and Alabama in what’s become a big game against Mississippi State. His first start already exceeded historical expectations. The same history says he doesn’t have to take a step backward in start number two.

One of my favorite things about New Testament Greek is the way joy (chara) acts as a function of grace (charis). Happiness is circumstantial, etc., but joy is rooted in the idea and presence of grace: the one gives cause for the other.

I like this idea because sharing in joy together – to rejoice (chairo) – comes with the notion that you’ve been through some stuff together. A shared awareness of one’s need for grace helps create the opportunity to celebrate when you have it.

Plenty of hearts have been blessed around here this fall, the latest of a dozen that’s made us all queasy. We’ve been doing this long enough now to know hope always comes back at the start of each season; that’s what it does, and what we do. But it died in record time this year, with immediate resurrections denied by our Mormon friends at the last minute and all the old familiar places in Gainesville.

Capital-H Hope is what Phillip Fulmer hired Jeremy Pruitt for, eschewing the safety of Les Miles and the familiarity of Tee Martin for a guy who might win championships or might just be a really good defensive coordinator. The answer will continue to be, “We need more data,” for a while. That’s the message on the answering machine this season when you lose at Florida by 31 and feel bad about everything, and it’s still the message when you lose to Georgia by 29 and feel better about almost everything.

But along the way, we found a little more joy than we anticipated.

That’s one of the best things about joy, the surprise of it. We wrote on Friday that Jarrett Guarantano, Josh Dobbs, Nathan Peterman, and Justin Worley failed to produce a single touchdown drive in their first career starts as mid-season replacements. Brian Maurer, on play number six:

https://twitter.com/SECNetwork/status/1180629584548638720

Then, on the 10th play of the next drive, Maurer wasn’t even kind enough to let people get back in their seats after the end of the first quarter before throwing a dart between coverage in the end zone.

One of the biggest issues for this team has been red zone efficiency. Take out Chattanooga, and the Vols had 10 trips inside the 20 but only four touchdowns coming into the Georgia game: 2-for-4 against Georgia State, 2-for-4 against BYU, 0-for-2 against Florida. After failing to punch it in at the very end of the game against the Bulldogs, Tennessee is still 105th nationally in red zone touchdown percentage. But Maurer made an A+ throw in a crucial situation.

The kind of hope we really want may not bloom in full until the off-season, not as long as this year is yoked to the failures of September. Tennessee will want to get to six wins, though the fullness of that conversation needs to wait until we see what this team does against Mississippi State. But if the Vols do beat this week’s Bulldogs, then after whatever happens at 9:00 PM ET against Alabama, we’ll be talking about if this team can make a run to the postseason by winning four of its last five games. It would be a tall order for a young team; I said on our podcast last night that 5-7, at this point, would be a genuine accomplishment.

But along the way, we might have some fun.

Brian Maurer had some fun against #3 Georgia, now 17th in SP+ defense. The Tide are 11th in those ratings. The rest of the remaining schedule:

• Mississippi State 48th
• South Carolina 26th
• UAB 47th
• Kentucky 64th
• Missouri 7th
• Vanderbilt 109th

When Tyler Bray caught fire at the end of his freshman season, we talked about having to wait to see him get to Level 2: there was only so much you could believe when the opponents were Memphis, Ole Miss, Kentucky, and Vanderbilt. Those three SEC teams had defensive SP+ ratings between 71-75, and Memphis was 113th.

That won’t be the case with Maurer. He’ll get a heavy dose of the kind of competition Tennessee needs to rise to in the second tier of the SEC East. He’ll get Alabama, of course. And he’ll also get a Missouri team that is rolling on that side of the ball at the moment.

If enough pieces around him stay healthy, we’ll be able to draw at least slightly more reasonable conclusions about his play. When hope eventually blossoms for Tennessee, whether through an unlikely bowl run this year or more tangible progress in 2020, its first fruits are likely to come in games like these. Credit Pruitt, Maurer, and everyone involved for taking a situation that felt mighty hopeless and injecting some genuine joy along the way.

We’re unlikely to forget Tennessee’s need for grace this year, and in particular Maurer’s. He’ll still have plenty of freshman moments in him, I’m sure. Hope, even if beneath the surface, is present. But the Vols now approach this Saturday with a little more than a bad combination of nerves, desperation, and idiot optimism.

Now, we might get to have a little more fun.

We’ll probably all find out who’s starting for Tennessee within an hour of kickoff. If it’s Brian Maurer, interest will certainly rise, regardless of #3 Georgia on the other sideline. But Tennessee’s recent history suggests the magic bullet usually isn’t:

2017: Jarrett Guarantano vs South Carolina

• 11-of-18 (61.1%) for 133 yards (7.4 ypa), zero TD/INT

Four of those completions and 72 of those yards came in the final 1:13, with Guarantano taking advantage of South Carolina’s prevent defense. The Vols got looks at the end zone but couldn’t get in. Tennessee ran the ball 39 times to 19 passing attempts, kicked three field goals, and lost 15-9.

2013: Josh Dobbs at #9 Missouri

• 26 of 42 (61.9%) for 240 yards (5.7 ypa), zero TD, 2 INT

Dobbs also ran the ball seven times for 45 yards, but Tennessee never threatened in a 31-3 loss to a Missouri program we were probably still learning to take seriously. He was also forced into action due to injury.

2013: Nathan Peterman at #19 Florida

• 4-of-11 (36.3%) for 5 yards (0.5 ypa), zero TD, 2 INT

No need to beat a dead horse here.

2011: Justin Worley vs #13 South Carolina

• 10-of-26 (38.5%) for 105 yards (4.0 ypa), zero TD, 2 INT

The Vols turned a muffed South Carolina punt into a 3-0 early lead, then didn’t score again. Tennessee was turned away on 4th-and-1 at the South Carolina 44 late in the first half, then had 1st-and-Goal at the Carolina 2 after an interception by Prentiss Waggner. Worley threw an interception two plays later, and Carolina responded with an infamous 20-play drive for an insurmountable 14-3 lead.

2010: Tyler Bray at Memphis

• 19-of-33 (57.6%) for 333 yards (9.8 ypa), 5 TD, 0 INT

Pro tip: it helps to play 2010 Memphis in your first career start!

2008: Nick Stephens at #10 Georgia

• 13-of-30 (43.3%) for 208 yards (6.9 ypa), 2 TD, 0 INT

Though no one would master the Clawfense, this wasn’t bad, really. Georgia easily took away the run (15 carries, 1 yard) but Stephens kept Tennessee around all day.

2006: Jonathan Crompton at #11 Arkansas

• 16-of-34 (47.1%) for 174 yards (5.1 ypa), 2 TD, 1 INT

Crompton’s first glimpse is remembered fondly when he replaced a gimpy Erik Ainge the week before against LSU, then almost led the Vols to victory on the strength of throwing deep to Robert Meachem. The next week at Arkansas he was far less successful; Ainge returned from injury to guide the Vols to the Outback Bowl.

The combined stat line in the first-time starts from Guarantano, Dobbs, Peterman, and Worley (three of them coming against Top 20 teams): 51-of-97 (52.6%) for 483 yards (4.98 ypa), zero touchdowns, six interceptions. And it’s not just passing touchdowns: JG, Dobbs, Peterman, and Worley failed to lead a single offensive touchdown drive in those four games.

If it’s Maurer, we should take the same long view for the program and place it on his shoulders. Anything he does well would be progress compared to his contemporaries. And if it’s nothing but struggle? He might still grow into anything from Worley’s respectable performances under Butch Jones or Peterman’s under Chaney at Pitt. And hey, that Dobbs kid did pretty well the next time he was a mid-season replacement starter.

You absolutely never know. But for a mid-season replacement against a ranked team, we are unfortunately good at guessing. As with everything else Tennessee right now, there’s definitely the opportunity to surprise. Maybe he will. If Maurer does, delightful. If he doesn’t, the better data point will come next week.

One of the most popular things I ever wrote in eight years at Rocky Top Talk has an unfortunate headline in hindsight: What’s Wrong With Tennessee Football Has Nothing To Do With Derek Dooley.

We published it in 2011 after the Vols lost 14-3 to #9 South Carolina in Justin Worley’s first start, an effort to look at the big picture in the midst of what felt like a lost season. Tennessee lit the flames of expectation that year with a win over Cincinnati, then lost Justin Hunter the next week and Tyler Bray two games later. As a result, the Vols lost by 31 to #1 LSU, 31 to #2 Alabama, then failed to score a touchdown against the Gamecocks.

Dooley, of course, eventually became part of what was wrong with Tennessee football. The Vols lost at #8 Arkansas by 42, beat Vanderbilt in Bray’s return, then infamously lost to Kentucky’s WR/QB. Dooley hired Sal Sunseri to run his defense, and that was that.

But the truth of Tennessee’s struggles up to that point remained: a three-year recruiting failure in 2007, 2008, and 2009. The 2007 class was ranked third and universally praised. The 2008 class was a disaster from the word go, ranked 35th with Fulmer still at the helm. And Lane Kiffin’s 2009 class lost half of its signees by the time I wrote that story in October 2011. From 2007-09 Tennessee signed 31 blue chip players (four or five-stars). One was Eric Berry. But only two others became long-term starters.

So that was the argument: Tennessee is losing games because the other teams have better players.

If long-term starters is still the benchmark, then what Jeremy Pruitt is working with isn’t exactly the same situation, or as easy to rationalize. Butch Jones’ 2016 class – the guys who should be seniors this year – included 10 blue chips in a class of 23 (43.5%). Seven of those guys became/are consistent starters, including Nigel Warrior, Jarrett Guarantano, Marquez Callaway, and Daniel Bituli on this year’s team. Add in Jonathan Kongbo, Alexis Johnson, and some starting duties for Ryan Johnson. The Vols lost only Marquill Osborne to transfer.

One of the biggest problems Pruitt faces right now is the 2017 class. Signed in the fading light of the Butch Jones era, Tennessee landed only five blue chip players in a class of 28 (17.9%). The two highest-rated signees are Trey Smith and Ty Chandler. But the other three blue chips – Maleik Gray, Eric Crosby, and Will Ignont – have transferred, retired from football, and failed to make the travel squad to Florida.

A significant percentage of what Tennessee is trying to get done right now is with three-star players from this class: LaTrell Bumphus, Matthew Butler, Kivon Bennett, Theo Jackson, Riley Locklear, K’Rojhn Calbert, Josh Palmer, Shawn Shamburger (and Brent Cimaglia!).

Pruitt’s quick turnaround 2018 class – the first to wrestle with the early signing period – landed eight blue chips in a class of 22 (36.4%). The highest-rated signee was J.J. Peterson, who remains a mystery. But the other seven guys are all already starters or would be if they were healthy: Alontae Taylor, Greg Emerson, Bryce Thompson, Dominick Wood-Anderson, Jordan Allen, Emmitt Gooden, and Jerome Carvin.

And Pruitt is already giving significant snaps to his three highest-rated signees from 2019 – Darnell Wright, Wanya Morris, Henry To’o To’o – plus Eric Gray.

Current recruiting is the very best reason to hope in Pruitt. The 2019 class had a dozen blue chips in a class of 22 (54.5%), the best ratio since Fulmer in 2005. The 2020 commitment list includes seven blue chips with 14 on the board (including a two-star long snapper). This is championship-level recruiting.

The Vols, of course, also have to develop that talent. Butch Jones recruited at a championship level in 2014 and 2015 and came close in 2016, but we all know that story. The ratios are already better with Pruitt, but right now the Vols are facing a significant hole from the class of 2017. And no matter what, the Vols have more talent than Georgia State and BYU.

At the end of the recruiting decade, I pulled Tennessee’s highest-rated signee at every position since the class of 2010 via 247’s database:

QB	Jarrett Guarantano
RB	Jalen Hurd
WR	Da’Rick Rogers
WR	Justin Hunter
WR	Josh Malone
TE	Daniel Helm
OT	Darnell Wright
OG	Trey Smith
C	James Stone
OG	Jackson Lampley
OT	Wanya Morris
DL	Kyle Phillips
DL	Kahlil McKenzie
DL	Shy Tuttle
LB	J.J. Peterson
LB	Henry To’oTo’o
LB	Quavaris Crouch
CB	Alontae Taylor
CB	Marquill Osborne
NB	Byron Moore
FS	Nigel Warrior
SS	Todd Kelly Jr.

You’ll notice a couple of things here. First of all, nine of these guys are on the current roster, including three starting offensive linemen and all three linebackers. Kudos to Pruitt’s staff for recruiting so well at those positions.

Of the remaining 13 guys, the same number (five) left the program as made it from Tennessee to the NFL (Hunter, Malone, Stone, Phillips, Tuttle). The Vols’ biggest NFL talents of this decade – Cordarrelle Patterson, Derek Barnett, and Alvin Kamara – fall just outside the highest rated signees at their positions.

So, as with all things, you really have to wait and see. The current team struggles, in part, from recruiting at the end of Butch Jones’ tenure and the nature of a coaching change with an early signing period. The brightest spots for Pruitt are recruiting wins, including plenty of freshmen on this year’s team. The nearly lost blue chip class of 2017 hurts right now, but it can’t be all of Tennessee’s problems. You have to hope that all of this gets better at the same time: Pruitt’s coaching and development skills alongside really strong recruiting classes, with both parts of that equation clearly still finding their way.

2019 has become about 2020; really, it’s about 2021 and beyond. If the Vols somehow find a way to get to six wins this season, we’ll rightfully celebrate it. But Tennessee’s win expectancy hovered around 4.2 on our site before the Gators won 34-3. With Georgia and Alabama still to come, Tennessee is looking at a scenario where it needs to go 5-1 against Mississippi State, South Carolina, UAB, Kentucky, Missouri, and Vanderbilt. I think the Vols can win games in that stretch to extend the conversation. But five-of-six asks for a consistency that seems beyond what this team has shown itself capable of.

There’s a mental concern too: how long will this team keep fighting at 1-3 when it seemed to fold after Guarantano got knocked out of the Missouri game last year at 5-5? Wes Rucker advocates holding out on a full-on youth movement until after the Alabama game, while playing upperclassmen with NFL futures to help their stock. Something like that could still represent progress in the back half of the season when the schedule does lighten just a bit, but you’ll still need some kind of investment from both upper-and-underclassmen for progress to show up.

As others have pointed out (including the most well-rounded take I’ve seen from Andy Staples at The Athletic), it’s a fairly simple equation for Pruitt and Tennessee in the big picture. It’s in no one’s best interests for the Vols to move on from him this season. From a competitiveness standpoint, the Vols are at the lowest point of my lifetime; we said even after BYU it’s best to measure progress from the bottom instead of to the top. It’s funny: I thought that might be a little more freeing when watching Tennessee against Florida, but so many of the mistakes still bring the same feelings of frustration.

Pushing the reset button right now just adds time to the clock. The Vols need to compete well enough, with some wins thrown in, for Pruitt to continue to recruit at a reasonable level. I’m not worried about Tennessee’s national ranking of 22 in recruiting for 2020 right now; the Vols are still at the blue chip ratio target of 50% in that class, which would make two years in a row. But with only 14 commits at the moment, will they be able to stay there or close to it as we approach the signing period? One thing slowing the process right now is the makeup of Butch Jones’ final recruiting class, when the Vols couldn’t parlay any momentum left from consecutive 9-4 ranked finishes into anything better than five blue chip players in a class of 27 in 2017.

Even before Georgia State, we thought it was true the guys who would ultimately decide Pruitt’s fate weren’t the upperclassmen on this roster. That was especially true at quarterback. Fans are going to be quick to anoint Harrison Bailey, and we’ll see. But you can at least create reasonable competition if you play Brian Maurer, whether now or after Alabama. Guarantano does have a year left, but might also find a graduate transfer situation appealing after all he’s been through.

It will always be worth pointing out that Jim Chaney has been part of the two biggest QB reclamation projects I’ve ever seen involving Tennessee players. Jonathan Crompton was 61-of-122 (50%) for 667 yards (5.5 ypa) with four touchdowns and six interceptions against UCLA, Florida, Ohio, and Auburn in 2009. And then he played himself into the NFL Draft in the second half of the season. Any conversation about Guarantano’s performance being the worst we’ve ever seen has clearly forgotten Nathan Peterman in the same venue six years earlier; Chaney was with him the first of two years at Pitt, which led to eight NFL appearances.

The difference with Guarantano is he appears to be getting worse. And with Georgia and Alabama on the horizon, the windows for improvement are shrinking.

We’re also aware a youth movement is already underway in several spots. Guys who will ultimately be involved in the big picture conversation about Pruitt – Eric Gray, multiple offensive linemen, Henry To’o To’o, most of the secondary – are already in the mix. Unfortunately, there aren’t many of those options on the defensive line, where the Vols simply are who they are: a group replacing every starter and without Emmitt Gooden that cannot generate any pressure against an SEC offensive line by themselves. The youth movement there is in high school: BJ Ojulari and Dominic Bailey join Harrison Bailey and safety Keshawn Lawrence as Tennessee’s highest-rated commits.

But you also can’t roll into 2020 expecting to make decisions about Pruitt based on what freshmen defensive linemen do in the SEC. This whole thing is going to last longer than anyone wanted to get figured out.

If Pruitt continues to recruit reasonably well, you at least let him put more talent on the roster and really see if he can grow into this job. He stays long enough to decrease the buyout and do the thing Kiffin, Dooley, and Butch Jones failed to do: leave the program in better shape than they found it.

There’s also a long-term scheduling note here, one that hasn’t paid off for Tennessee this season but might in the future. The Vols are going to be massive underdogs when they go to Oklahoma next September. But after that, there’s a relative dip in Tennessee’s schedule over the next few years. All those jokes about Tennessee and Arkansas needing to play each other for morale will come true next season when the Vols go to Fayetteville. In 2021, it’s Ole Miss in Knoxville. And the Vols will go home-and-home with Pittsburgh in 2021 and 2022, followed by the return match with BYU in Provo in 2023. There are no guarantees, but at least Pruitt isn’t facing the same scheduling gauntlet Butch Jones saw (Oregon, Oklahoma, Oklahoma, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech in the non-conference; Auburn, Ole Miss, Arkansas, Texas A&M, LSU from the SEC West).

The one assumption for this season was progress. That’s still important, it just looks a lot different. The real goal now is maintaining investment: with players, with recruits, and with fans week-to-week. Can the Vols compete enough to make us believe they have a chance to win when we turn on the TV against everyone other than Georgia and Alabama? The Vols clearly weren’t beating the Gators, but going forward you’d like to see less of four turnovers and four personal fouls and more winning and losing honestly. It’s the best way to continue to make an honest assessment of Jeremy Pruitt, and the reality of where this program is right now.

We’ve made much of Tennessee running fewer plays than any team in the country last year. The Vols took a few overtime snaps, but are nonetheless 69th in total plays through three games this year (stats via SportSource Analytics). Tennessee is averaging 68.3 snaps per game; last year it was 59.7.

The Vols are also more balanced on first down so far this year. Last year Tennessee ran the ball 69.7% of the time on first down; this year the Vols are at 61.4%. The late attempt to rally against Georgia State and the backup snaps against Chattanooga help balance out the equation.

Last year Tennessee’s passing was extremely balanced: Guarantano had 80 attempts on first down, 78 on second, and 82 on third. Under Jim Chaney, Guarantano has been far more likely to come out firing: 31 passing attempts on first down, compared to 23 on second down and 19 on third down. But at least so far, Guarantano’s struggles don’t seem to come alongside passing more on first down: he’s 20-of-31 (64.5%) for 339 yards (10.9 ypa) and no interceptions.

We know last year Guarantano was really good on third down; add in Tennessee’s struggles to run on third-and-short, and statistically it was better for the Vols to face third-and-medium and let him throw it. So far this year? Guess who leads the nation in third down completion percentage?

On third down, Guarantano is 16-of-19 (84.2%) for 171 yards (9.0 ypa). Now, you’ll point out that his completion percentage is higher because the Vols have been making too many safe throws behind the sticks on third down. And you’re right in part: despite the ridiculous completion percentage, the Vols have converted only eight times on his 19 third down passes. So far Tennessee’s entire third-and-short package has struggled: on 3rd-and-1-3, Guarantano is 3-for-3 for two yards and one first down.

Third-and-medium has been mixed: Guarantano is 4-of-7 for 40 yards with a touchdown, an interception, and only three first downs on those seven attempts. But on 3rd-and-7-10+, Guarantano is 9-of-9 for 129 yards (14.3 ypa). Four of those nine third-and-long completions led to first downs.

Guarantano has been okay on first down, and so far Chaney is mixing it up more than his predecessor. And he’s been really good, again, on third-and-long. It’s the tighter windows on third down where JG is struggling more. And you can see it on fourth down too: 1-of-3 for five yards coming via the tipped touchdown by Jennings against BYU.

Issues are also easier to spot when the Vols get thrown off schedule. Guarantano on second down this year: 13-of-23 (56.5%) for 114 yards (4.9 ypa). When the Vols are unsuccessful on first down and then go back to the pass on second down, it’s been less fruitful.

Some good news here: the Vols have allowed only 13 tackles for loss, 35th nationally. Tennessee was 116th in that category last year, 112th in 2017. The number may go down as the Vols face SEC competition starting this week, but there does appear to be some real improvement on the offensive line.

In the first half against Georgia State, the Vols had gains of two yards or less on first down seven times. But Tennessee still converted six of those series into first downs. Then in the second half, the Vols had gains of two yards or less on first down five times, and failed to turn any of those series into first downs or touchdowns.

By my count, the Vols were 12-of-17 in similar situations against BYU. That’s pretty good! There’s an unanswerable question in here about how much of this was/is mental: a case of the oh-nos in the second half against Georgia State, tightening up on third-and-medium and fourth down, etc. But on first down, and on third-and-long, Guarantano is still relatively sharp.

Going forward, the Vols could trade sharp for spectacular: Tennessee has just 10 plays of 20+ yards so far this season. That’s 98th nationally, and better than only a dozen teams who’ve played three games.

All of this goes into the pot for Jim Chaney when game-planning for the Gators. Your quarterback is good on first down and third-and-long. He’s struggled so far when the windows got tighter. You need more big plays, but also have to block well enough to set them up against the best defense you’ve seen yet. The offense may have a tendency to get tight, so how aggressive do you want to be in the early going when it backfired so spectacularly against this team last year?

I’m not sure what to expect. But it should be our best data point yet. Here’s hoping the Vols make it a good one.

Just before kickoff of the first Tennessee-Florida game as Eastern Division rivals in 1992 (after the old SEC rotation brought them on each other’s schedule in 1990 and 1991), one of my dad’s friends made a comment in our section about how the Gators would soon become Tennessee’s biggest rival. To my 10 year old brain, that was blasphemy – and it still sounds a little that way at 37 – but if we’d all known what was coming, we might’ve agreed.

The other answer to that question is a rivalry built on streaks. This one, turning 30 this week, has arguably carried a more potent brand of both agony and ecstasy. Alabama and Tennessee take turns being big brother. With the Gators, Tennessee has been little brother that wins just enough for us to want more.

Images from those wins are burned in our memories. Dale Carter to open the second half. Mose Phillips in the rain. No-sir-ree. Travis Stephens vs Guss Scott. James Banks and James Wilhoit. And Jauan Jennings gleefully coming down the sideline.

A question we asked a lot during the Butch Jones era was some form of, “Doesn’t Tennessee actually have the better team this year?” It’s the one we wanted to be true all those years in the 90’s, when losses could at least be chalked up to elite competition. As lesser Florida teams still found a way to turn the Vols into even lesser versions of themselves, the rivalry evolved into a new level of frustration. The Gators were, for a long time, the team standing between Tennessee and the top of the mountain. Most recently they’ve become the team that’s kept Tennessee from being “back”.

There’s a world of should’ve packed into this decade with the Gators. In the mid-90’s, Florida took hope away early. In the last seven years, they’ve stolen it late. In 2012 the Vols led 20-13 with five minutes left in the third quarter and lost (by 17). In 2014 the Vols led 9-0 on the next-to-last play of the third quarter when Justin Worley was blindsided. The Vols lost. In 2015 the Vols scored to take a 26-14 lead with 10 minutes left in The Swamp, chose not to go for two, and it all went very bad from there. And in 2017 the Vols had 1st-and-goal at the nine with a minute left, settled for three to tie, and you know how that ended too.

So it was almost nostalgic when Florida took Tennessee’s hope right away last season, a hyper-aggressive gameplan backfiring into six turnovers and Tennessee’s first ten drives ending in something other than a punt or a touchdown.

Tennessee doesn’t have the better team this year on paper. In 30 years of doing this, the Vols have been favored to beat Florida seven times (via Covers.com). And the Vols have beaten Florida seven times. Three times, Vegas got it right: the Vols rolled in that first meeting against Spurrier in 1990 from -4.5 to a 45-3 win. Tennessee was -3 in 2004 when James Wilhoit went from goat to hero. And three years ago, the Vols turned -4 into a 21-3 hole into 35 straight points.

Four times, the Vols have lost as a favorite: nightmarish first halves in the rain in 1996 and 2002 in Neyland, that nightmarish finish in 2012, and four years ago in The Swamp, the only time Tennessee has been favored in Gainesville (-1) since the rivalry was played annually.

(I’d rate that loss, by the way, as third-worst of my lifetime. 2001 LSU is the undisputed champion, and I hope stays there for the rest of my life. 1990 Alabama is number two. But I think everything about that 2015 loss – the series of horrendous coaching decisions in those last 10 minutes, the carryover fury from Oklahoma, and the fact that it cost the Vols the SEC East when other infamous losses cost Tennessee far less – it’s the worst of a very bad time these last 12 years.)

Four times, Tennessee pulled the upset. In the downpour in 1992 at +4.5 with a young Phillip Fulmer on the sideline. The eventual National Champions were +3 when Collins Cooper sailed wide. The last win in The Swamp in 2003 came with the Vols +3. And, of course, the +16.5 in December 2001 in what is still the best football game involving one of my teams I’ve ever seen.

This year, the Vols opened at +12.5. It quickly swelled to +14.5. Despite only beating the Gators seven times in 29 tries, +14.5 is the third biggest line the Vols have faced in this series, trailing the 16.5 they turned around in 2001, and the +30 they easily covered when everyone thought Urban Meyer might actually attempt murder on Lane Kiffin.

Unlike the current nature of the Alabama rivalry, where the Vols have faced lines of 29.5, 36.5, 28, and 29 in this decade, Florida is always right there within reach. It’s what makes it hurt more when the Vols fail to grab it. And it’s what makes us hope – even this year – that another Saturday we’ll remember forever might get added to our list.

Two weeks ago today, we talked about how progress was the expectation, and how much would be the fun part. More important than the difference between 6-6 and 7-5 would be how the team performed play-for-play a year after losing six games by four-plus possessions. Preseason projections from SP+ had the Vols within two possessions of every opponent except Alabama; FPI had the Vols within one possession of every opponent except the Tide.

The last two weeks have changed the conversation considerably. Even if the Vols fought their way back to 5-7 – which feels like an accomplishment from here, as our expected win totals this week are hovering around 3.45 – there is, of course, an actual difference between 5-7 and 6-6. Coming that close to bowl eligibility at the end of November would make us re-live the pain of the BYU loss.

Progress may be best measured now not in the distance to the top, but the distance from the bottom. That being the case, there’s an even more compelling argument to focus on what this team does on every snap…because there is still plenty of opportunity to be far more competitive this season.

In that department, you’re going to want to believe in FPI more than SP+. Tennessee’s projected margin of victory after this week:

	SP+	FPI
at Florida	-21.6	-14.8
Georgia	-23.4	-14.7
Mississippi St	-11.8	-6
at Alabama	Shut your eyes!	Don’t look at it!
South Carolina	-5	-4.9
UAB	18.6	20.1
at Kentucky	-7.6	-6.2
at Missouri	-14.7	-8.6
Vanderbilt	6.9	7.8

Both models have the Vols favored only against UAB and Vanderbilt after this Saturday, where Tennessee’s line is about where it opened against Georgia State. FPI’s current projection has in part become SP+’s preseason projection: two-score losses to Florida and Georgia, a third squeaking by with Missouri at -8.6, but generally competitive in every other non-Alabama game.

Obviously, a 4-8 season isn’t going to be viewed as an overall success. It’s hard to re-calibrate expectations after a huge upset; it would’ve been interesting to see how the 2016 Vols were received if they beat Vanderbilt to earn a Sugar Bowl bid at 9-3, but still gave away the SEC East after losing to the Gamecocks at -14.5.

Still, week to week what this team (and its fans) need is the idea that Tennessee can compete. We’ll learn a lot about that against Florida. With a win against Chattanooga, the Vols can technically still carry the bowl eligibility conversation to the South Carolina game, with any win before then incredibly helpful. Between now and then, if the Vols can be relatively competitive with Florida, Georgia, and Mississippi State, it will not only be an important sign of progress, it will keep more fans in Neyland Stadium and invested wherever we find ourselves.

The last two weeks are a great reminder that we never know exactly what’s going to happen week to week. It’s a really tough road to six wins now. But the kind of progress that keeps people invested is still available. We’ll see what signs of life show up against Chattanooga.