Author Archives: Will Shelton

If J.T. Shrout attempts four more passes – seems likely at this point – it will be the third time in the post-Fulmer era the Vols had three quarterbacks attempt at least 25 passes. It happened at the end of the disastrous 2017 season via Will McBride (17-of-40 in two appearances). And it happened in the middle of 2011 with Tyler Bray’s broken thumb, and Derek Dooley’s decision to pull Justin Worley’s redshirt. Worley did get a win against MTSU. But in terms of this kind of success against meaningful competition, you have to go back to 2004 with Brent Schaeffer, Erik Ainge, and Rick Clausen.

The 2019 Vols aren’t going to win the SEC East (but we can still Lloyd Christmas it another week if Georgia wins tomorrow!) but can still engineer an incredible turnaround. One way to measure that: what the Vols are currently doing against Vegas. After losing as a 24.5-point favorite to Georgia State and a three-point favorite to BYU, the Vols were +12.5 at Florida and lost by 31. That’s a 57-point swing in the first three FBS games (closing lines via covers.com), plus another five in losing to Georgia by 29 at +24.

Those five points are as close as Vegas has come on any Tennessee game this year. Because since then, the Vols beat Mississippi State as an underdog by 10, covered easily against Alabama, and beat South Carolina as an underdog by 20.

Two wins as an underdog of at least +4 isn’t new: the Vols did that last year against Auburn and Kentucky. But Vegas has now undervalued the Vols by a combined 51.5 points in the last three weeks.

It’s just the fifth time this decade the Vols have covered the spread three weeks in a row. Tennessee did it twice in 2015, and Josh Dobbs did it himself in 2014 (Alabama, South Carolina, Kentucky). For the (hopefully) best comparison here, you have to go all the way back to Tyler Bray’s emergence: his appearance at South Carolina in 2010 and subsequent 4-0 run to end the regular season is the last time the Vols covered the spread at least four weeks in a row, getting to five in that run. Tennessee’s 52-14 win over Ole Miss in that stretch when the Vols were just -2.5 is the most I’ve seen UT undervalued this decade.

As the Vols (currently -12) look to make it four in a row this week, the opponent lends itself to additional mystery:

Just noting that along with the fact that the range of predicted scores/margins for UAB-Tennessee is easily the widest I've seen all year.

— Matt Hinton (@MattRHinton) October 31, 2019

Joel’s statsy preview machine agrees with chaos this week. If you’re looking for regression to the mean, this probably isn’t the week for that since no one really knows what the mean is with UAB. It’s one more element of unpredictability in an already-massively-unpredictable season that might feature three quarterbacks and a wide receiver taking snaps at quarterback.

In such a time as this, the Vols should again look to their defense and run game to carry them; we learned last week that can look much more exciting than you think. Will we get the game we thought we’d see against Georgia State? Will UAB – winners of 16 of their last 19 games! – parlay that spirit into another competitive game? Will the Vols commit to a rotation between quarterbacks (whether it’s all three or only two with Guarantano’s wrist), or start one and ride him as long as he’s hot? Will that kind of plan – one bad throw away from the bench – affect the young quarterbacks?

Bowl expectations are riding high – 5.72 is the updated community average in our expected win total machine – but the most reasonable expectation truly remains the unexpected. Hopefully that manifests itself as another great performance from multiple quarterbacks and another Saturday to celebrate.

ESPN’s FPI projects the Vols to finish with 5.5 regular season wins. At the moment, bowl eligibility is – barely but fairly! – the most likely outcome. You can do your own math with our expected win total machine, but most of us are coming in on the right side of six wins. And thanks to Missouri’s struggles against Kentucky and Vanderbilt, seven wins – the very 7-5 finish many of us picked at the start of the season – suddenly feels like it’s on the table too.

FPI will cool those jets, giving Tennessee just an 11.2% chance of winning out. This season should’ve taught us not to get ahead of ourselves when it comes to the Vols, and no one should be taking anyone for granted. UAB opened as a 13-point underdog, and by Tuesday it’s already 10. Vegas has underestimated the Vols by a combined 54 points in the last three weeks. I’d love to make it four. But Tennessee needs to take things one Saturday at a time.

For the rest of us, however, let’s consider the following possibility:

• Alabama and LSU both make the College Football Playoff
• The Sugar Bowl is required to take the next highest-ranked SEC team, probably the Florida/Georgia winner
• The Florida/Georgia loser wins out, finishes 10-2, and is ranked high enough in the CFP poll to earn an at-large bid to the New Year’s Six
• The Citrus Bowl is required to take the next highest-ranked SEC team, probably Auburn

That scenario plays out in Banner Society’s bowl projections; Jason Kirk has been one of the very best (by being one of the most realistic) in those projections for a long time. He doesn’t have Tennessee bowl eligible, so let’s hope that part is unrealistic. But if all of the above plays out, the SEC’s Group of Six bowls would be choosing between a Texas A&M team who finishes at Georgia and at LSU, Kentucky (FPI projects at 7-5), Missouri if they’re eligible, and – if they can get to six wins – Mississippi State, South Carolina, and Tennessee.

It’s a nice, neat group of six if everyone is eligible. But FPI projects South Carolina to come up short, and Missouri is still ineligible at the moment. It could be that those six bowls are choosing between A&M, Kentucky, Mississippi State, and Tennessee. A&M played in the Gator Bowl last year, Mississippi State in the Outback.

If the Vols are 7-5 on a five -game winning streak? It ain’t gonna be the Liberty Bowl, friends.

Keep taking care of business, and there’s a real chance the Vols could spend January in Florida.

I love it.

In November of 2016, with the defense depleted by injury and the Vols still in the hunt for the SEC East and the Sugar Bowl, Butch Jones and Mike DeBord went full throttle on offense. The result was the best offense in college football in yards per play in November at 8.96, with all four games featuring offensive performances better than 7.70 yards per play. (Stats via SportSource Analytics)

I point that out because today, the Vols had 485 yards of offense at 7.13 yards per play. Other than in November of 2016, 7.13 yards per play is the best a Tennessee offense has done against a power five team this decade.

Not the first two months of 2016. Not the 2015 team that was a few plays away from a shot at the College Football Playoff. Not Josh Dobbs’ coming out party at South Carolina in 2014. And nothing Tyler Bray and friends did against power five competition in 2012.

Fittingly, you have to go back to Jonathan Crompton against Georgia in 2009 (7.38 yards per play). That’s the most unlikely performance from a Tennessee quarterback I’ve ever seen. Today might be number two.

It’s quarterbacks, plural. Jauan Jennings will live forever in Knoxville. Clearly not content with already having the two most memorable plays of the entire decade, Jennings’ legend now belongs to his entire career. I’m not sure how much more we’ll see him in the wildcat this season – let’s see who’s healthy and who’s not – but if you’re looking for the embodiment of giving one’s all for Tennessee, it’s #15.

We’ve been waiting all year for Jarrett Guarantano to have a Jonathan Crompton moment. It took a minute. The Vols again failed to put the ball in the end zone on an early red zone visit, but atoned via Marquez Callaway’s punt return. When a long South Carolina drive ended in a touchdown after multiple attempts from the one, the Vols were down 14-10 with three minutes left before halftime. Maybe the circumstances were right, maybe last week helped him more than hurt him, maybe who knows. But Guarantano uncorked two completions to Jennings for 75 yards and a score. And after South Carolina punched in a quick score to take a 21-17 halftime lead, Guarantano came out in the third quarter with a 48-yard strike to Marquez Callaway.

Brent Cimaglia missed the ensuing field goal, Tennessee’s surest thing failing them. The Gamecocks had the ball and the lead. The oh-no’s were creeping.

Then the defense produced what would be the first of four second half three-and-outs. And Guarantano responded with 22 yards to Josh Palmer, eight more to Palmer, and a 19-yard teardrop to Jennings for six.

https://twitter.com/Vol_Football/status/1188221776511172608

Guarantano was injured on the play, and did not return. Let’s hope it’s not his last throw in a Tennessee uniform – the opposite of what some of us were saying after his last snap last week – but no play summed up his career more than this one: third-and-long, stands in and takes a huge shot, and delivers a big play downfield.

UPDATE:

Pruitt says on the @VolNetwork postgame show that Guarantano has a broken bone in his left wrist and will have surgery on it in the morning. When asked if he would be available next week he said “sure.“

— Brian Rice (@briancrice) October 27, 2019

Without JG, the Vols went back to J.T. Shrout. Jim Chaney went wildcat with Jennings, Shrout to Palmer to nine, wildcat with Jennings, and then Shrout to Marquez Callaway for 55 yards wait what

A thing of beauty. pic.twitter.com/TDR2loMMIO

— Tennessee Football (@Vol_Football) October 26, 2019

Shrout later attempted four straight passes on the drive that extended the lead with a Cimaglia field goal. Chaney stayed aggressive and it worked like a charm. Shrout – the third-string quarterback – finished 7-of-11 for 122 yards and a touchdown, no picks. If you’ll recall before Brian Maurer’s first start, the first start as mid-season replacements for JG, Dobbs, Peterman, and Worley all yieled zero touchdowns. Maurer, check. Shrout, check. I tweeted this during the game, but that QB competition next spring is going to be all kinds of fun.

But suddenly, there’s plenty of fun to go around in present day too.

Did I mention South Carolina scored on the first play of the game? Or Daniel Bituli’s 14174 tackles? Or that Tennessee’s quarterbacks – neither of them Brian Maurer – combined to go 18-of-30 for 351 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions wait what

So, okay. We’ll fire up the expected win total machine on Monday after we’re done celebrating and not apt to pick the Vols at 100% to sweep November. It felt like there could not possibly be a trap game for the Vols in the next five years after losing to Georgia State, but LOOK OUT, here comes 6-1 UAB off a bye week! It’s a trap!

Any corners turned this season must be seen only in hindsight after our September. But these Vols gave themselves the opportunity to look back at the end of this season and point to the month of October: the early promise against Georgia, the precision against Mississippi State, the unexpected pain of coming close at Alabama, and now the passion and power of a night like tonight.

And if you keep looking around at other year twos, there aren’t that many nights like tonight.

What was lost can always be found. The Vols have given themselves a chance to save their season, and may have found themselves along the way. We’ll see if they can indeed get it all the way home.

But tonight, it’s chicken for dinner, any way you like it.

Go Vols.

Last week, off a 10-point win over Mississippi State and with increasing confidence Brian Maurer would play against Alabama, our community Expected Win Total was 4.82. This week, off a tantalizing what-if at Alabama but with decreasing confidence Maurer will play against South Carolina, our community win total is…4.81.

Maurer’s uncertain status is keeping us from the best versions of the Alabama game, both the ones where we might’ve actually won it, and the ones where the Vols still parlay what actually happened into a momentum-solidifying win over South Carolina and better odds at bowl eligibility. To be clear, Tennessee will still have plenty of opportunity to win this game. But if we’re looking for landmarks, this week feels like a detour.

Maybe it’ll be J.T. Shrout in his first career start. Maybe it’ll be Jarrett Guarantano. And if it is JG and you’re there tomorrow, we’d echo what I hope will be the majority: it’s not in anyone’s best interests for you to boo that kid. I’d go one more: if it’s Guarantano, cheer for him. Loudly. On purpose. Don’t tell yourself you won’t boo him in pregame but save it for his first mistake and think it was charitable. After everything we’ve seen, including and especially last Saturday’s scenario at the goal line, I think we can say for sure that if he’s playing it’s because he really, truly still represents Tennessee’s best chance to win. And he might. If so, get behind him.

Whether it’s Shrout or Guarantano, Tennessee is likely to rely on its ground game and its defense to beat South Carolina for the first time since 2015 and Will Muschamp for the first time period. That would’ve seemed like an impossibility a month ago, but Tennessee’s improvement on the offensive line and throughout its defense is significant enough to both ask the question and hope for the right answer.

We’ve seen the Vols go run-heavy in Maurer’s absence against Mississippi State and Alabama. We’ve also seen it against BYU, especially after Guarantano’s third quarter interception. Since I don’t anticipate Guarantano or Shrout giving Tennessee much with their legs the way Maurer has, here’s what Tennessee’s running backs did in those three “here comes the run” games:

Opponent	RB Carries	Yards	YPC	Run Ratio
BYU	43	231	5.37	63.6%
Miss St	37	129	3.49	75.9%
Alabama	24	129	5.38	60.7%

No surprise, the more you know it’s coming, the better you are at stopping it. Tennessee was able to beat Mississippi State running three out of four snaps. And the Vols were trending that direction against the Cougars; we remember the two fourth-and-one stops, and rightfully so, but Tennessee really ran the ball well all day against BYU.

South Carolina is 58th nationally in yards per carry allowed at 3.99. The closest comparison is…Tennessee, 57th nationally at 3.98. North Carolina beat them in the opener in a version of here comes the run: 52 carries for 238 yards (4.6 ypc), running the ball 68.4% of the time. The Gamecocks worked to take the ground game away from Alabama (25 carries for 76 yards), but Bama simply shifted to Tua and finished with 39 passing attempts and 47 points. Against Georgia, South Carolina survived 113 yards at 4.9 per carry from D’Andre Swift by getting three interceptions off Jake Fromm. They’d take that against Tennessee too, I’m sure.

Can Tennessee run it well enough against this defense when they know it’s coming, and not ask Shrout or Guarantano to do too much? A lot of that answer depends on Tennessee’s defense.

The Vol defense is 42nd in SP+ right now, a nice improvement after finishing 72nd last season and losing all of its defensive linemen. What seems comfortable to say at this point after watching the Vols against BYU, Mississippi State, and Alabama post-Tua: if your quarterback is average or below, this defense will make you pay.

Where does Ryan Hilinski fall on that scale?

Take out the Charleston Southern game, and Hilinski has struggled in yards per attempt. Against FBS competition he’s 96-of-169 (56.8%) 916 yards (5.4 ypa) with five touchdowns and only two interceptions. Clearly, he’s doing enough to give South Carolina a chance, and the Gamecocks cashed it in against Georgia (and have reason to be upset about Florida). But like Tennessee, the coaching staff isn’t putting the game on the shoulders of its quarterback.

If Tennessee can make this game follow the script from BYU and Mississippi State, they’ll have their chances. Hilinski hasn’t been in the mood to throw interceptions the way the Bulldogs were. The over/under here is 47.5, so Vegas expects something like South Carolina 26-21. If the Gamecocks get to 26, I’m not sure that’s good news for Tennessee.

I’d expect some version of what we saw in this game last time it was played in Knoxville in Guarantano’s first career start, even with a different coaching staff. The Vols ran the ball 39 times at 3.1 ypc, attempted 19 passes with a handful coming on the final drive, and lost 15-9 because they settled for three field goals and couldn’t punch it in from inside the five in the final seconds. Tennessee will need to win ugly this week. But our ugly is looking better and better these days. Will it look good enough for victory?

Go Vols.

In the off-season we do a series on Making Progress, on how the Vols can improve on the things they were very worst at in the previous year. Seven games into this season, Tennessee is moving in the right direction on most of those fronts:

• Running on third-and-short was the thing Tennessee was very worst at last season: 21 carries for 20 yards, the only team in college football to average less than 1.5 yards per carry (and the Vols averaged 0.95 yards per carry). It hasn’t gone from the basement to the penthouse, as you’d expect, but this year the Vols have 20 carries on 3rd-and-1-3 for 44 yards (2.20 ypc) and 13 first downs. Tennessee no longer has to go shotgun and hope for the best. (Stats via SportSource Analytics)
• Last year Tennessee ran fewer plays than any team in college football. This year the Vols are 116th of 130 in that department; they’re ahead of just five teams that have played seven games, and do have a handful of overtime snaps. Keep an eye on this number as the Vols enter a more winnable stretch of their season.
• Last season the Vols forced only 15 turnovers. Through seven games this year, Tennessee already has 13. Five against Chattanooga helped, but the Vols also had three against Florida and, more crucially, three against Mississippi State.
• In the massive improvement department: last year the Vols allowed opponents to score 41 times in 45 red zone visits, 120th nationally. So far this year opponents are just 25-of-32 (78.13%), 35th nationally. It’s bolstered by Chattanooga going 0-for-3 (which is still impressive), but the Vols also turned away Mississippi State once and intercepted Alabama.
• One area the Vols are yet to improve: explosive running plays. Last season Tennessee had 49 runs of 10+ yards, 116th nationally. Through seven games this season the Vols have 24 runs of 10+ yards, 115th nationally. Let’s see how that number improves when not facing Florida, Georgia, and Alabama.

Tennessee is better on a number of fronts, including the kind of significant improvement in turnovers and red zone defense that suggest a big difference on the scoreboard. What’s keeping that from happening?

Red zone offense.

In 24 red zone trips this season, Tennessee has only 10 touchdowns. That’s 41.67%, 124th nationally and one of just 16 teams scoring a touchdown less than 50% of the time they enter the red zone.

Here’s each of Tennessee’s 24 red zone possessions:

Game	Qtr	Score	Result
Georgia State	1	0-7	TD
Georgia State	2	14-14	FG 19 yds
Georgia State	4	20-21	FG 31 yds
Georgia State	4	23-38	TD
BYU	1	0-0	TD
BYU	2	7-3	TOD 4th-&-1
BYU	4	13-10	FG 22 yds
BYU	OT1	16-23	TD
Chattanooga	1	0-0	TD
Chattanooga	1	14-0	TD
Chattanooga	2	35-0	FG 34 yds
Chattanooga	3	38-0	TD
Florida	1	0-7	INT
Florida	3	0-17	FG 40 yds
Georgia	2	7-10	TD
Georgia	4	14-43	TOD 4th-&-Goal
Mississippi St	1	0-0	INT
Mississippi St	1	0-0	TD
Mississippi St	2	7-3	INT
Mississippi St	3	10-3	FG 22 yds
Alabama	1	0-7	TD
Alabama	2	7-14	FG 37 yds
Alabama	3	10-21	FG 32 yds
Alabama	4	13-28	Fumble TD

A word of praise is due Brent Cimaglia. Nine kickers with 7+ attempts have yet to miss a field goal this season. After those nine, no one has been better than Cimaglia’s 13-of-14 (92.9%). He made what were important kicks in the moment against Georgia State and BYU, gave Tennessee its first points at Florida, gave the Vols a two-possession lead against Mississippi State, and gave Tennessee a chance at Alabama. Perhaps we expect kickers to go 8-for-8 on attempts of 40 yards or less, but that’s usually not the exact result.

There’s enough bad to spread around on the red zone turnovers: Maurer’s two picks against Mississippi State, a ball Jauan Jennings should’ve caught at Florida, and Guarantano’s poor choice on Saturday night. Whatever it’s worth, JG also failed to get the backups in on four tries from the five yard line against Georgia’s backups. And Eric Gray was stuffed on an important early sequence against BYU, foreshadowing the end-around stop just outside the red zone later in the game.

Tennessee’s struggles at the doorstep have been particularly painful. At the end of the first half against Georgia State the Vols had two shots from the three yard line but couldn’t get in. Early in the fourth quarter the Vols had 3rd-and-2 at the Georgia State 14, but a pass to Austin Pope went for no gain and the Vols settled for three to take a 23-21 lead. Aside from the fourth down stops, against BYU the Vols also had 1st-and-Goal at the 9 early in the fourth quarter with a chance to take a two-possession lead up 13-10, but had to kick a field goal.

The interception at Florida was obviously painful, but with only two red zone visits I’m not sure Tennessee is winning that game either way. But what happened at Alabama was a microcosm of this problem before the Guarantano fumble. On the drive when Maurer was injured, the Vols had 1st-and-Goal at the 5 and went false start, no gain, holding, incomplete, then Guarantano missed Jennings on the double move. The other sequence was more about officiating, when 1st-and-Goal at the 7 led to a phantom holding penalty and then a missed pass interference call. But against Alabama, the Vols were so close to doing something really special on three separate drives, then went field goal, field goal, disaster.

So here’s some good news: on drives Brian Maurer finished, you do of course have a pair of end zone interceptions against Mississippi State, which we’re chalking up to some combination of freshman mistakes and a concussion. But the other red zone trips led by Maurer: a touchdown to open the third quarter against Chattanooga, the only points of the day at Florida (on a drive that reached only the 20), an A+ touchdown throw against Georgia, Tim Jordan’s touchdown run against Mississippi State, and a QB sneak touchdown at Alabama. In Maurer’s seven red zone drives, the Vols have four touchdowns, the field goal at Florida, and the two picks against Mississippi State. Obviously, you can’t throw picks in the end zone. But the other results have been good, including that throw against Georgia which is the best individual play Tennessee has made in the red zone this season and perhaps beyond. It’s a small sample size: Maurer is 1-of-6 in the red zone this year, the one being that touchdown, with two of the five incompletions being those interceptions. But Guarantano is 9-of-24 for 79 yards with five touchdowns and the interception at Florida. Those five touchdowns include the last-second TD against Georgia State, the batted-ball against BYU, the overtime TD catch by Jennings, and two scores against Chattanooga. When the windows get tight, everyone has struggled. Guarantano was better here last year too: 14-of-23 for 111 yards in the red zone, with seven touchdowns and, importantly, zero interceptions.

Everything is on the table, but if you’re going to expect anything in these next five games, I’d lean toward close calls. That means all of these red zone trips are going to count. And the Vols, who traded a chance for something special into Alabama’s spectacular last week, have to put the ball in the end zone more often. If Maurer comes back, can he continue this trend? If it’s Shrout, can he learn on the fly? And if it’s Guarantano, can he recover from everything he’s faced this season and get this team in the end zone?

“That’s the same team that lost to Georgia State,” is the rhetoric today from parts of Clemson, Columbus, Baton Rouge, and anywhere else a team fancies itself the best in the land.

It’s not, of course. You’re never really the same team in late October as you were in late August.

It is, unfortunately, the same season. Tennessee is still 2-5, and still needs a 4-1 finish to earn the bowl eligibility everyone assumed two months ago. But the Vols we saw in Tuscaloosa played way, way better than those same preseason assumptions allowed for.

They did it without Brian Maurer for most of the night, who left each of the last two games with only seven passing attempts for concussion protocol. They did it without Henry To’o To’o in the first half and Daniel Bituli for the second, a razor-thin position to begin with that somehow still held up. And they did it after catching the wrong end of several breaks from the officiating crew, including a pair of potentially game-changing calls in a matter of minutes.

And sure, we need a few words on Jarrett Guarantano. Last week the Vols play-called as if they were trying to win in spite of him, but Guarantano did go 6-of-7 for 106 yards, including a 41 yard bomb to Ramel Keyton that led to three points and the final strike to Tyler Byrd. They beat Mississippi State, in part, because of him doing what he needed to do on the few plays they asked him to do it.

The numbers were worse this time – 7-of-16 for 55 yards – but Guarantano did convert three third downs through the air in the second half, the first leading to three points and the other two on that 14-play drive.

It’s the end of that sequence that’s driving the outside conversation, and a fair percentage of what Tennessee fans are talking about too. Let’s consider what would’ve been true even if Guarantano didn’t fumble or actually scored.

Tennessee’s coaching staff has twice demonstrated their trust with Guarantano throwing the ball is already low. Whatever happened on that snap, it didn’t increase that level of trust. The other thing I believed to be true was, if Maurer couldn’t play, those coaches still believed JG gave Tennessee the best chance to win, and the feel-good story this season hopes to become is in need of those, now.

The move to put J.T. Shrout in the game cast some doubt on that, backed by a handful of those far closer to the program than I am not being nearly as surprised by the decision.

If Maurer isn’t an option, what do you do against South Carolina? It’s the latest of a series of difficult questions for Jeremy Pruitt. Answering difficult questions is in the job description, of course, but these are a different set of questions than we thought we’d be asking at this point in year two.

However, the questions we thought we’d be asking are getting answered in the affirmative more every week. Yesterday was one of the best performances from Tennessee’s offensive line in a long time, again despite obvious trust issues in the passing game. And Tennessee’s defensive line again made a difference: Alabama got just 4.1 yards per carry, the second-best performance by a Tennessee defense in this game in the last eight years.

Watching the way the Vols competed, there’s a hope we’re done with the +34.5 lines. Before Tua went out, the Vols came to play. Without him (but with Alabama’s army of five stars still intact), the Vols were competitive to the end.

It feels like we might be entering territory the Vols often found themselves in during basketball seasons of the past: capable of beating anyone, capable of being beat by anyone. It’s an exciting place to be! It can also be frustrating, especially with uncertainty at quarterback.

Tennessee has grown far beyond the team they were against Georgia State. In the big picture, the Vols are making progress in all the right places, restoring hope in this coaching staff and excitement for the future. In the short term, they may not like their options at quarterback, and have to manage a number of emotions with South Carolina coming to town in what’s become one of the biggest games of the year. Who’s going to get more questions about officiating this week between Pruitt and Muschamp? Who will be better at getting their team to respond from that kind of disappointment?

Everything is on the table for this team. That includes bowl eligibility and the hope such a run would inspire. And it includes more frustrating defeats behind more uncertainty at quarterback, enough to cast a shadow on this season’s overall progress. Especially in this season, we should’ve learned by now not to set expectations in stone for how it’s going to go the rest of the way. How’s it going to go this week?

As always, the Vols will be interesting in pursuit of the answer.

On the heels of the Mississippi State win, our community Expected Win Total stands at 4.82. As the name implies, we’re not expecting bowl eligibility yet, but the Vols are at least back in the conversation.

That particular point of progress isn’t likely to change in Tuscaloosa after dark, where the Vols are +34.5. But there’s a version of this where we come out of Saturday night feeling just as good (better?) about Tennessee’s chase for six wins.

Last year Alabama came to the Third Saturday in October looking like one of the best college football teams in the history of earth. Tennessee had more of a pulse than in 2017, when the Vols were dominated from start to finish, and also in 2016, when the #9 Vols were humiliated offensively. The 2018 Vols scored two second quarter touchdowns to make it 35-14, and were set to receive the second half kickoff. It ain’t much – and Bama punched it in just before halftime anyway – but against these guys, it was something. At 4.69 yards per play, you could at least entertain the notion of something good happening when the Vols snapped the ball.

This year, Alabama’s defense is certainly more vulnerable, though vulnerability is relative when your offense is averaging more than eight yards per play. But South Carolina (5.34 yards per play), Ole Miss (5.41), and Texas A&M (5.56) all had more success than we’re used to seeing teams of that caliber get against the Tide defense. I’m quite sure A&M has more talent than Tennessee right now, but South Carolina and Ole Miss are fair comparisons.

The 21 points Tennessee scored on Alabama last year were already the most in this rivalry (in regulation) for the Vols since…2001! You want Tennessee, especially if quarterbacked by Brian Maurer, to land enough punches to believe they can do the same against South Carolina, etc.

Of course, the other side of this coin is the other side of the ball, where progress this season would be holding Alabama to 41 points or less, or less than 6.5 yards per play. When you’re this kind of underdog, it’s hard to make covering the spread a success; I’m not sure we’re going to feel great about life if the Vols lose by 31. But this week feels more about maintaining the momentum established last Saturday. Maybe that comes via onside kicks and fourth down conversions – hey, maybe it’s an effective recruiting strategy for those young enough to pay attention after 9:00 PM ET – but the bigger picture is keeping this team not only together where it fell apart last November, but moving forward in the chase for six wins. The Vols came out of the last Third Saturday feeling like they’d done that, then followed it up with an almost-good-enough performance at South Carolina. Can we get a little more of the same this year?

The win itself doesn’t feel like a total surprise, though definitely a relief. The Vols were +5 at the closing line today, and we’re in no position to be ungrateful, so well done by Jeremy Pruitt and his staff in getting their third SEC win as an underdog.

Tennessee coming away with the win doesn’t feel like the headline. But the way it happened, on both sides of the ball, is breaking news.

Seven sacks against an SEC foe? First time this decade. Only 14 passing attempts? Fewest against any opponent this decade.

Selling out to stop the SEC’s leading rusher on one side of the ball, and suddenly playing without your freshman spark at quarterback on the other side? The Vols had no business finding much success impacting MSU’s passing game, or running the ball when everyone knew it was coming.

And yet.

The Vols had 190 rushing yards on 44 carries; 4.3 yards per carry is the third-best mark under Pruitt in SEC play, behind the Kentucky win last year and the Vanderbilt game when the Vols got only 14 carries in falling behind. On this game’s most crucial drive in the fourth quarter, with the Vols facing their worst field position of the day and awaiting diagnosis on a potential case of the oh-no’s in Neyland Stadium, Ty Chandler immediately ran for 6 and 15 yards, then Tim Jordan for 7 and 12. When everyone knew it was coming and the Vols had to have it anyway, they got it. Easily.

Darrell Taylor had two sacks to bring his career total to 14. Bryce Thompson got one blitzing from the secondary. The other four: the first career sacks at Tennessee for Darel Middleton, Matthew Butler, Kivon Bennett, and Aubrey Solomon. Any one of those guys getting a sack today would’ve felt like a bonus coming in. All of them cashed in.

Other than Texas A&M – only four more years until they come to Knoxville for the first time! – we probably have less of a relationship to Mississippi State than any other team in the SEC. That makes it harder to get a feel for their program, expectations, etc. But I’d say one’s opinion on the trajectories of these two programs has shifted in the last couple weeks:

Today’s game was REAL BAD. Lots of things about today’s game were REAL BAD. Check out all the things that were REAL BAD on https://t.co/Fg5ZIyEyFI https://t.co/GU2weooom0

— For Whom the Cowbell Tolls (@mstatesports) October 12, 2019

Because the Bulldogs lost at home to Kansas State, were obliterated by Auburn, had a bye week, and then turned in this performance today? There’s a part of me that’s wondering if Mississippi State is, in fact, real bad, despite being the favorite and finishing eighth in SP+ last season.

Either way, today was real good for Tennessee.

Bama’s next; we know the drill there. The ask on the other side will be four wins in five games against South Carolina, UAB, at Kentucky, at Missouri, and Vanderbilt. After today, we’re firmly in not-probable-but-possible range.

The Vols and Pruitt are still playing the long game. That exercise looked like giant question marks at quarterback and on both sides of the line not at all long ago, the three worst places for uncertainty in the SEC. Midway through the season, the Vols are still 2-4 with costly losses on the front end. But those most important questions, at least for today (and a little bit of last week), look a little more answerable. We’ll see what happens with Brian Maurer’s concussion protocol; credit Jarrett Guarantano for making every throw he needed to make today. Credit Tennessee’s offensive line for not needing those throws. And credit the defensive line – and so many names therein – for going from an absolute liability in game one to holding the SEC’s leading rusher to 11 carries for 13 yards and seven sacks. Seven!

Any win was a good win today; in isolation, this one deserves all the singing and celebration after what we’ve been through. The schedule presents possibility.

But the biggest news of all today wasn’t the what, but the how. Are the young Vols getting significantly better at quarterback, offensive line, and defensive line? For present and future, that’s the biggest news of all.

Beat Bama.

At the midway point of the season, we’ve finally got a game where the match-up itself is the most interesting story.

Not many of us, including me, took the time to preview Georgia State. Bad idea, it turns out, but we made up for it in word count the next week. Then the end of the BYU game ensured Tennessee and Jeremy Pruitt would be the lead story through Chattanooga and into Gainesville, where the Vols lost 34-3 and it seemed like there was no point in talking about how to beat Georgia.

And there probably wasn’t; the quarterback change got our rightful attention. But with Brian Maurer passing his first test against #3 Georgia, “bowl” has re-entered the vocabulary. It’s still probably a conversation for after a win like this one – I’ve got the Vols at 4.25 in expected win total – but Mississippi State comes to Knoxville at 3-2, not the 5-0 some of us thought possible. One of those losses was at home to Kansas State, the other a 56-23 beat down at Auburn in which they trailed 49-9 90 seconds into the third quarter.

Mississippi State is currently favored at -6.5, making this just the second time in the first six games the line is single digits (BYU +3). Something similar happened last season: the Vols were +10 against West Virginia and +3.5 against Florida, then didn’t see single digits again until +9 at South Carolina.

Last season Mississippi State finished 8-5 but 8th in SP+, due to one of the most difficult schedules in college football after catching Kentucky and Florida from the SEC East. They beat Texas A&M 28-13 then rolled Ole Miss 35-3 in Oxford to end the regular season on a high note, though a loss to Iowa in the Outback Bowl soured that a bit. As is the case with the entire field, Year Two has not been as magical for Joe Moorehead.

With all eyes on Maurer, what have opposing quarterbacks done against the Bulldogs this season?

Team	Cmp	Att	Pct	Yds	YPA	TD	INT	Result
Louisiana	24	39	61.54%	267	6.85	1	1	L 38-28
So. Miss.	18	26	69.23%	234	9.00	2	2	L 38-15
Kansas St.	10	18	55.56%	123	6.83	1	0	W 31-24
Kentucky	15	41	36.59%	232	5.66	0	1	L 28-13
Auburn	16	21	76.19%	335	15.95	2	0	W 56-23

Obviously, Bo Nix skews the totals a bit. But so does Sawyer Smith on the other end of the spectrum. On the year, Mississippi State’s 8.1 YPA allowed ranks 102nd in college football. The Bulldogs also have only nine sacks in five games, three coming against Smith and Kentucky.

What’s been most helpful to Mississippi State’s defense: getting off the field on third down, where opponents are converting just 31.4%, 23rd best for a defense. The Vols went 5-of-12 against Georgia; Guarantano was 1-of-3 in late action, though one of those plays was a 3rd-and-20 after a Maurer sack, so the runs go to him.

The Bulldogs have also turned away the opposition five times in 20 red zone appearances, an impressive 75% scoring percentage allowed. But 13 of those 15 scores were touchdowns, making Bob Shoop’s defense feast or famine in the red zone.

Will this be a breath of fresh air for Tennessee’s freshman quarterback after facing Florida and Georgia? The Vols’ young offensive line is banged up, and Mississippi State had last week off. It’s tough to pick Tennessee when the Vols have only beaten Chattanooga. But if you’re looking for a real live opportunity – on a number of levels – this is it.

Go Vols.

We’ve mentioned the struggles Vol quarterbacks faced when making their first start in the middle of a season: Jarrett Guarantano, Josh Dobbs, Nathan Peterman, and Justin Worley all failed to lead a touchdown drive in their first appearance as a starter. Brian Maurer passed that test with flying colors. So, what do mid-season replacements tend to do in their second start?

Guarantano’s second start was at #1 Alabama in 2017. It’s an unfair data point, but here it is anyway: 9-of-16 (56.3%) for 44 yards (2.8 ypa) with no touchdowns and an interception. For the third game in a row and the second under Guarantano, the Vols failed to score an offensive touchdown (though Rashaan Gaulden got six points and two digits).

If you’ll allow game three, Guarantano got much better. At Kentucky the following Saturday, he was 18-of-23 (78.3%) for 242 yards (10.5 ypa). He didn’t throw a touchdown (or an interception), but Ty Chandler did crack the end zone twice. The Vols attempted six field goals, Cimaglia made four of them, but Kentucky prevailed 29-26.

In 2013, Josh Dobbs also went from the frying pan to the fire in his second start. After failing to produce a touchdown drive in a 31-3 loss at #9 Missouri, the Vols returned home to play #9 Auburn. Dobbs’ numbers were about the same: 16-of-25 (64%) for 128 yards (5.1 ypa) with no touchdowns and an interception, plus 10 carries for 50 yards. The Vols did take a 13-6 lead on the first play of the second quarter on a Rajion Neal run, then used a pick six just before halftime to close within 27-20. But Auburn finished the game on a 28-3 run.

Justin Worley’s second start came against MTSU in 2011, a 2-10 Blue Raiders squad. In the frat house kicker game – shout out Derrick Brodus and Alcoa High School – Worley went 23-of-32 (71.9%) for 291 yards (9.1 ypa) with a touchdown in a 24-0 victory.

So the good news: no one got worse. Guarantano played Bama but was much better in start three, Dobbs played two top ten teams and was about the same, Worley was much better against a bad team. That’s a good precedent for Maurer, who gets to take a breath between Georgia and Alabama in what’s become a big game against Mississippi State. His first start already exceeded historical expectations. The same history says he doesn’t have to take a step backward in start number two.